Check out our picks for the AFC — Titans v. Chiefs — and NFC — Packers v. Niners — championship games
After an 8-4 weekend in the divisional round, we are back to try and beat the book for the championship round. We are running out of games to pick — unless you’re going to be looking at XFL games which would be an interesting choice. We went 8-4 last week only picking the Seahawks incorrectly. The other three losses were exotics — thanks Baltimore.
Both teams have already played each other this season.
Just like last week, we will pick the game, the totals, and maybe add some first-half lines and team totals. The Packers were absolutely worked by the Niners in late November. The final score of 37-8 doesn’t even do justice to how bad the Packers played in that game — or how dominant the Niners looked.
The Titans defeated the Chiefs in Nashville in early November in a wonky game. It was the true start of the Titans run to end the season. That run got them to the AFC title game. It’s also the last game the Chiefs lost.
As usual, the home teams are in CAPS, and we are using Bet MGM for our odds. Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.
It’s going to be tough for the New Orleans Saints to upgrade in the 2020 NFL Draft, but they’ve beaten worse odds before. They have just two picks in the draft’s first 100 selections ( at Nos. 24 and 88), which is more than they had last year. New …
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It’s going to be tough for the New Orleans Saints to upgrade in the 2020 NFL Draft, but they’ve beaten worse odds before. They have just two picks in the draft’s first 100 selections (at Nos. 24 and 88), which is more than they had last year. New Orleans still found a way to land a starting center in Erik McCoy and a dynamic defensive back in C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
Their next draft class could be just as big. In the latest three-round mock draft from Luke Easterling over at Draft Wire, the Saints ended up with Alabama cornerback Trevon Diggs in the first round and Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts in the third round.
Right now, the Saints are projected to start Marshon Lattimore on one side at cornerback, Janoris Jenkins on the other end of the field, and put Gardner-Johnson in the slot. That could change depending on what happens with Jenkins’ contract (he’s currently counting $11.5 million against the salary cap), but for now Diggs wouldn’t be projected to start.
That may not be a bad thing. He’s a big corner (listed at 6-foot-2, 207 pounds) who converted to the position after being recruited as a wide receiver, and didn’t start consistently until his senior year, which saw him create five takeaways with three interceptions and a pair of fumble recoveries. He deflected eight passes in total. The size and playmaking ability is there; maybe he’d put it all together after some hard work in Saints training camp.
As for Hurts: he’s one of the best quarterbacks in this draft class, and it would be surprising if he’s available so late in the process. His play greatly improved under Lincoln Riley’s tutelage at Oklahoma. He could duplicate much of what Taysom Hill has accomplished in New Orleans, but offers the upside of gifted passing ability on top of all-world athleticism. With the future of the quarterback position far from certain for the Saints, it’s easy to like this pick.
After making trades to acquire Erik McCoy and C.J. Gardner-Johnson, the New Orleans Saints have just five picks in the 2020 NFL Draft.
This isn’t what most New Orleans Saints fans want to worry about right now, but here goes: following Sunday’s wild-card round loss to the Minnesota Vikings, the Saints own pick No. 24 in the 2020 NFL Draft. Their third-round pick is their only other choice in the first 100 selections; that third-rounder will be pick No. 88.
The Saints only have five picks in the upcoming draft following previous trades with other teams, but it’s worth noting those moves brought impactful rookies like center Erik McCoy and defensive back C.J. Gardner-Johnson to New Orleans. And the Saints had just five picks in the 2019 NFL Draft, too; they still landed big-time undrafted help in All-Pro returns specialist Deonte Harris and defensive linemen like Shy Tuttle and Carl Granderson.
So long as assistant general manager Jeff Ireland and his scouting staff are together, it’s a safe bet they’ll continue to find great prospects. Here are how where each of the Saints’ selections currently stand:
Round 1, No. 24
Round 3, No. 88
Round 4, To be decided (pending compensatory picks)
Round 5, To be decided (pending compensatory picks)
Round 6, To be decided (pending compensatory picks)
Additionally, here is the full draft order so far. Because the Saints finished the regular season with a better record than the New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills, and whoever loses the remaining wild-card round game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks, they own the final slot in the four spaces reserved for teams that suffered first-round playoff exits.
Are the Patriots done? Can the Bills win outright? The Saints should defend homefield, but what will happen in Seattle-Philadelphia?
We did it! We ended the regular season over .500 — and I bet you thought I was going to say we made it to wild-card weekend. A 6-3 record — and hitting on two parlays — helped save the season and now it’s time to keep the hot streak going into the playoffs.
Playoffs best bets are a bit different than the normal best bets during the regular season. We will bet on every single game. If there’s a total we like, we will take it, but there will be at least four game bets/picks.
As usual, the home teams are in CAPS, and we are using Bet MGM for our odds. Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.
Previewing the Green Bay Packers’ Super Bowl LIV chances, with NFL betting odds, picks, futures and best bets.
Should you bet anyone to win the Super Bowl? That’s a personal question I suppose. Some would say no. I’d definitely argue yes. In the spirit of trying to break the BetMGM book, let’s take a look at the Green Bay Packers’ case to win Super Bowl LIV.
NFL futures odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Thursday at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Green Bay Packers playoff futures
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NFC Champion: +400
First things first, can the Packers win the NFC championship? I’d argue the best value to win the NFC is the Packers. Considering they are the No. 2 seed entering the playoffs, which earned them a bye in the first round and home-field advantage against every NFC opponent aside from the San Francisco 49ers, isn’t there inherent value in taking the Packers (the third favorite to make it out of the NFC)?
(Photo Credit: Jeff Hanisch – USA TODAY Sports)
Lambeau Field is arguably the strongest home-field advantage in the NFL. Factor in winter conditions and beating the Cheeseheads at Lambeau in January is a rare feat. Since 2008 (when Aaron Rodgers became the Packers’ starting quarterback), Green Bay has the best record in the NFL as a home favorite at 52-33-3.
Also, the Packers are 28-15 straight up in the Rodgers era when having a rest advantage over opponents (sixth-best in the NFL). Given these factors, and their future first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback. PACKERS (+400) to win the NFC is the best value on the board.
Super Bowl: +800
Banking on our Packers +400 bet slip to win the NFC title to cash, what are the chances the PACKERS (+800) win Super Bowl LIV? Many consider the Packers an overrated team heading into the playoffs, but they’ve consistently exceeded expectations this season. The definition of expectations made for a sports team is how they perform against sportsbooks’ odds.
The Packers beat their projected regular-season NFL win total of nine (13-3 straight up) and they had the sixth-best record against the spread in the NFL (10-6 ATS). Winning and appearing in only one Super Bowl in the Rodgers era can be viewed as a disappointment for the Packers, but their 10-5-1 ATS record in playoff games is the second-best in the NFL since 2008 (minimum of three games played).
(Photo credit: Harrison Barden – USA TODAY Sports)
Rodgers isn’t having his typical MVP-caliber season but the Packers should still be considered a dual-threat offense. Rodgers’ down-year included 4,002 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and just four interceptions on a 62% completion rate. But running back Aaron Jones has provided Rodgers with a quarterback’s best friend with a strong run game.
Jones ran for 1,084 yards and tied with an NFL-leading 16 rushing touchdowns. His production is key to the Packers offense; the Packers won all five of the games in which Jones ran for 100-plus yards. Rodgers’ favorite target—WR Davante Adams—missed four games but is healthy to end the season, and he can get a little healthier because of the Packers first-round bye. Adams got rolling at the end of the regular season, catching 27 balls with 312 receiving yards and two touchdowns in the final three games of the season.
The Packers defense is ranked ninth in opponent’s points scored. The last time the Packers were in the top-10 in that category was in 2010 (ranked second) when they won Super Bowl XLV. Their defense is led by two legit pass rushers—both added this past offseason—in DE Preston Smith (12 sacks) and DE Za’Darius Smith (13.5 sacks and NFL-leader in pressures). Based on the Packers’ ability to play complementary football and the wide-open landscape of the NFL entering the postseason, take the PACKERS (+800) to win the whole damn thing.
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My normal advice would to not bet this weekend. Don’t do it – especially before knowing every teams’ situation since the late games have some large dependencies on the early game results. The problem is that I am two games below .500 and we have to …
My normal advice would to not bet this weekend. Don’t do it — especially before knowing every teams’ situation since the late games have some large dependencies on the early game results. The problem is that I am two games below .500 and we have to get to at least .500. Last year, it was a 59-59-2 finish. This year the standings currently sit at 55-57-2.
The problem is that isn’t a win. Let’s say we put a unit on every bet — a unit is your standard bet and it can be $5 or $500 — then we’d lose the vig or 10 percent. A $100 wager on every bet would mean down at least $570. That’s not the case since we had some big moneyline underdogs hit and a parlay here and there. We’ll be using units next year.
As usual, the home teams are in CAPS, and we are using Bet MGM for our odds. Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.
It’s the end of the year. There are only two weeks left in the regular season. That means two weeks left to bet on random teams that won’t make the playoffs. There’s only a short time to throw a ton of teams into teasers and parlays. Betting on …
It’s the end of the year. There are only two weeks left in the regular season. That means two weeks left to bet on random teams that won’t make the playoffs. There’s only a short time to throw a ton of teams into teasers and parlays. Betting on Lamar Jack against Bad Team X — this week it’s the Browns — won’t be possible. Also, time is running out to get above .500 on the season.
As usual, the home teams are in CAPS, and we are using Bet MGM for our odds. Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.
There’s always one week at the end of the season when things get turned upside down when it comes to gambling. Hot teams cool off for no apparent reason. Teams that are left for dead try for some reason. Let’s just say that type of week could be the …
There’s always one week at the end of the season when things get turned upside down when it comes to gambling. Hot teams cool off for no apparent reason. Teams that are left for dead try for some reason. Let’s just say that type of week could be the 15th session of the NFL season.
As usual, the home teams are in CAPS, and we are using Bet MGM for our odds. Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.
There are picks for Patriots-Chiefs, Niners-Saints, Rams-Seahawks and Bills-Ravens.
Don’t get confident. We were on fire with a bunch of big weeks followed by a great Thanksgiving and then went 1-5 in Week 13. That’s the opposite of good. So it’s time to go back to basics. Hit some home underdogs. Take some unders. Moneyline an obvious favorite here or there.
Finishing .500 isn’t the goal because that means lost money. There’s a reason that books take a vig. It’s their fee for taking a bet. That’s why finishing .500 is bad. That vig isn’t made up. It’s not a lot of lost money, but it’s 10 percent of a unit lost generally. So we need some winners. Let’s get some winners.
As usual, the home teams are in CAPS, and we are using Bet MGM for our odds. Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.
After going 5-2 on Thanksgiving, best bets include picks in Patriots-Texans, an Over-Under in Packers-Giants, and sticking with the Browns.
You’re currently coming out of a long weekend haze, trying to figure out how many calories you had from Wednesday night all the way into Saturday. It’s been a week full of food, drinks, friends, family, and football. Now you get more football on Sunday. There are some really good games. Those games may not be the best contests to bet on, but what else are you going to do on Sunday?
If you followed our advice for Thanksgiving you started the week with a nice 5-2 record. Let’s get right to the games.
As usual, the home teams are in CAPS, and we are using Bet MGM for our odds. Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.
