Sunday, January 19, 3:05 p.m ET / 12:05 p.m. PT

Tennesee Titans v. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -7.5

Over – Under 51.5

When the Titans beat the Chiefs the final score was 35-32. The Titans had absolutely no shot at stopping Patrick Mahomes and friends and beat them in a shootout. Let’s say that if a high-scoring game happens again, it heavily favors the Chiefs.

The normal reaction to this game would that the Chiefs will run away with. They have a powerful offense. They have speed all over the place. This isn’t an aging Tom Brady or Lamar Jackson making throws he doesn’t want to make. This is Mahomes at the peak of his powers. Everyone on offense is healthy. They just dropped 51 points last week. They overcame a 24 point deficit in a half. It’s their time. They were robbed last year.

The bets — according to Action Network — are showing that. There is 63 percent of bets on the Chiefs and 57 percent of the money. It’s the easiest play to make. If the Titans fall behind, they simply won’t be able to catch up. That’s it. Take the Chiefs. Don’t overthink this thing. Except . . .

Andy Reid is 1-5 in conference championship games. He’s somehow 1-8 against the Titans — although that shouldn’t really matter because he’s not facing Titans teams from the past. Here’s where it gets even more concerning for the Chiefs.

Right now, Mike Vrabel has been one of the best coaches in the playoffs. He beat the Patriots. He beat the Ravens. He’s changed his defense when it needed to be changed. Each gameplan has been new on defense and both defenses have worked. It’s like a Bill Belichick team.

Per the Around the NFL podcast, Mahomes is 3-4 in his career– including the playoffs — against Belichick and the coaches of his tree. He’s 23-4 against all other teams. That means something.

Styles make fights. The Titans are a big, bruising, physical team. When everyone went to speed, Tennessee decided to go the other way to go to strength and power. They have an aggressive offensive line that dominated the Patriots and the Ravens. Derrick Henry has been the playoff MVP so far. By the way, the 29th ranked rush defense according to DVOA. Henry already dropped 188 yards on the Chiefs this season.

You can see where I am going here. When you can take 7.5 points, you take 7.5 points. The Titans may not win, but they are going to keep this game close. Tennessee is almost the worst matchup for Kansas City. They may have rather played the Ravens.

Picks: 

Tennessee Titans +7.5

Tennessee Titans +4.5 1H

Over 51.5

Over 25.5 1H