Tag: Phillies Mets odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (29-13) and New York Mets (19-21) meet for the 2nd-game of a 4-game series Tuesday. First pitch from Citi Field is set for 1:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Philadelphia leads 1-0

Philadelphia won 5-4 win in 10 innings in Monday’s series opener while covering as a +106 road underdog. 2B-SS Bryson Stott went 2-of-4 at the plate with 1 HR and 2 RBIs, including the game-winning sacrifice fly.

New York led 4-2 entering the 9th, but allowed the Phillies to tie it and win it in the 10th. The Mets have allowed 4 or more runs in each of their last 3 losses.

Phillies at Mets projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Jose Butto

Nola (4-2, 3.67 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 49 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 0 BB, 7 K in a 5-3 loss at Toronto Wednesday
  • Career vs. Mets: 9-8, 3.40 ERA (150 2/3 IP, 57 ER), 123 H, 48 BB, 190 K in 26 starts

Butto (1-2, 3.00 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 33 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 3 K in a 7-5 loss at St. Louis Tuesday
  • Career vs. Phillies: 0-2, 8.36 ERA (14 IP, 13 ER), 18 H, 6 BB, 14 K in 3 starts

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Phillies at Mets odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:07 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies -146 (bet $146 to win $100) | Mets +124 (bet $100 to win $124)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+114) | Mets +1.5 (-137)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Mets 3

Moneyline

BET PHILLIES (-146).

Philadelphia has won 3 of its last 4 road games and is 8-2 in its last 10 overall while the Mets are only 1-3 in their last 4 and 4-6 in their last 10. The Phillies have also won back-to-back games against New York and are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS. 

The Phillies have both the better record and more talented roster. Because of this and Philly’s current streak, I expect the Phillies to cover as -1.5 (+112) favorites. However, Philadelphia’s odds are safer on the moneyline and I am not a fan of doubling down, so bet on the moneyline and/or total instead.

Over/Under

BET OVER 7.5 (-115).

The Over has hit in 4 consecutive road games for the Phillies and is 7-2-1 in its last 10 overall. The Over has also hit in each of the last 3 Philadelphia-New York matchups in New York, being 6-3-1 in the last 10 meetings overall.

Be aware that the Over is only 5-5 in New York’s last 10 games.

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (28-13) and New York Mets (19-20) open a 4-game series Monday. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Phillies won 7-6 last season (home teams went 11-2)

New York avoided the sweep by defeating the Atlanta Braves 4-3 on Sunday Night Baseball, thanks to a walkoff 2-run HR by CF Brandon Nimmo. All 3 games vs. the Braves at Citi Field went under the total, as the Mets bullpen has been solid, collectively sporting an NL-low 2.79 ERA.

Philadelphia lost for just the 2nd time in 11 games as the Marlins emerged as 7-6 winners in Miami Sunday. In contrast to the Mets, all 3 games between the Phillies and Marlins went over the total. Philadelphia’s offense has produced the 2nd-most runs (213) and RBIs (203), and it has the 2nd-highest OBP (.336) in the league this season.

Phillies at Mets projected starters

LHP Cristopher Sanchez vs. LHP Sean Manaea

Sanchez (2-3, 3.22 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 36 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 10-1 victory over Toronto Blue Jays Tuesday
  • Sports lowest barrel percentage (3.6%) among 57 starting pitchers in NL with at least 30 IP

Manaea (2-1, 3.31 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.39 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 35 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 4-3 victory over St. Louis Cardinals May 6
  • Features 2nd-lowest home-run-to-fly-ball percentage (2.2%) — but 3rd-highest BB/9 — among qualified NL starters

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Phillies at Mets odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Mets +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+142) | Mets +1.5 (-172)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -114 | U: -106)

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Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Philadelphia 4, New York 3

Moneyline

BACK PHILLIES (-120).

Philadelphia boasts 4 players in the top 15 for OBP among qualified hitters vs. LHP (3B Alec Bohm, C J.T. Realmuto, DH Kyle Schwarber and 2B Bryson Stott). Phillies 1B Bryce Harper leads all MLB hitters in hard-hit percentage (45.5%) with Schwarber in 3rd (42.3%) and LF Brandon Marsh in 7th (40.2%).

I expect them to support their starter and bullpen enough to pull out the road win.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I would not fault anyone for laying the juice with the Mets +1.5 (-172) since they have positive momentum after Sunday night’s walkoff win. Mets 1B Pete Alonso is 6 for 16 with 6 RBIs over his last 4 games, so there is a decent chance the Polar Bear stays hot and keeps his team in it.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7.5 (-106).

Both teams are dealing with injuries, and Baseball Savant ranks Citi Field as the most inferior ballpark in the NL when it comes to run production.

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The New York Mets (29-27) welcome the Philadelphia Phillies (25-30) to Citi Field Thursday. First pitch is set for 1:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 2-0

The Phillies have struggled as of late, losing 6 of their last 9 games. Philadelphia is just 11-20 on the road this season.

New York is 14-9 at home this season. The Mets have won 9 of their last 13 games. They are on a 7-game home winning streak.

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Phillies at Mets projected starters

RHP Taijuan Walker vs. RHP Max Scherzer

Walker (4-2, 5.57 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 53 1/3 innings.

  • Phillies are 7-4 in his 11 starters
  • Allowed a season-high 10 hits against the Braves in his last start
  • Spent the last 2 seasons with the Mets and earned his lone All-Star appearance with the club in 2021

Scherzer (4-2, 3.54 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 3.54 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 40 2/3 innings.

  • The 38-year-old 3-time Cy Young winner hasn’t been an All-Star the last 2 seasons
  • Mets are 6-2 in his starts
  • Has allowed just 2 ER over his last 3 starts (18 IP).

Phillies at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:32 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Mets -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-145) | Mets -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 4, Phillies 3

Moneyline

PASS.

The Mets have gotten 2 outstanding pitching performances in this series. While those may continue, the Phillies’ bats should heat up at some point.

There’s too much talent not to. Philadelphia has played well with Walker on the mound, but it just isn’t quite even value to play it to win outright at (+145). Ultimately, this is a PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

BET PHILLIES +1.5 (-145).

The juice is there, but the Mets have not been good as a favorite this season. They are just 12-29 on the run line as a favorite. New York is 4-13 on the run line as a favorite at home.

Scherzer has given up at least 6 hits in 2 of his last 4 starts as well. The Phillies have only been swept 3 times this season and should be able to bounce back Thursday with Walker on the mound.

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Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-105).

If there’s one thing both teams have been good at, especially in the 1st 2 games, it is hitting the Under. Philadelphia is 23-28-4 O/U this season and 1-3 O/U in its last 4 games.

It has scored just 1 run in the last 2 games against the Mets. The Mets have scored just 6. New York is 5-28-3 O/U this season and 3-4 O/U in its last 7.

With 2 strong pitchers on the mound, take the UNDER 8.5 (-105).

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with expert MLB picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies (25-29) play the middle contest of a 3-game series with the New York Mets (28-27) Wednesday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 1-0; New York won season series 14-5 in 2022

The Phillies suffered a 2-0 loss in the series opener Tuesday night in Queens. It was Philadelphia’s 1st shutout loss since May 14 in Colorado, and the 5th time the Phils have been blanked this season.

Philadelphia has won just 2 of its last 9 games on the road, while cashing at a 2-5 clip in the last 7 games inside the NL East. The Phils are also 1-4 in the last 5 road games against a right-handed starting pitcher.

New York had allowed 21 runs in the final 2 games of the road series against the Rockies, so the shutout back at sea level was nice. It was the 1st shutout win for the Mets since May 5 at home against Colorado and the 4th shutout victory this season.

The Mets have won 6 in a row, while going 7-2 in the last 9 games against a right-handed starting pitcher. New York is 5-2 in the past 7 tries after posting a victory, too.

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Phillies at Mets projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco

Nola (4-3, 4.59 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 68 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 5 ER, 8 H (3 HR), 2 BB, 7 K in an 8-5 road loss Thursday vs. the Atlanta Braves
  • 2023 road splits: 2-2, 5.02 ERA (43 IP, 24 ER) with a .244 opponent batting average (OBA) in 7 starts

Carrasco (1-2, 6.75 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 5.3 K/9 in 25 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K in a 10-1 road win Thursday vs. the Chicago Cubs
  • 2023 home splits: 0-1, 10.24 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 11 ER) with 5 BB, 4 K and a .289 OBA in 2 starts

Phillies at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:15 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Mets +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+135) | Mets +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Mets 3

Moneyline

The PHILLIES (-125) are a strong play on the road, as they look for a bounce back after getting blanked.

Phils OF Bryce Harper should be rested, as he and his teammates did not play on Memorial Day, and he was given a scheduled day off Tuesday, too, after playing every day since May 2.

I like the Philadelphia offense to get it done against Carrasco. SS Trea Turner has rolled up 6 hits, including 3 doubles and 3 RBI, in just 8 career at-bats against the veteran right-hander. Look for the Phils to roll.

Run line/Against the spread

The PHILLIES -1.5 (+135) are a solid play on the run line, as they look to bounce back, although Nola does have a 4.59 ERA which is a little concerning.

While Philadelphia has failed to cover the run line as a favorite in 4 straight, including 2 outright losses, I just don’t trust Carrasco. Plus, the Mets +1.5 (-160) are just 1-2 on the run line in 3 games as an underdog since May 3.

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Over/Under

The OVER 8.5 (-120) is a solid play in the middle game.

I expressed my concern about Carrasco, who has a 6.75 ERA, Nola has been very giving lately, too. He served up 3 homers last time out in Atlanta, and he has allowed at least 1 home run in each of his past 7 starts dating back to mid-April.

In fact, as far as the player props are concerned, I like both CARRASCO OVER 2.5 RUNS (-130) and NOLA OVER 2.5 RUNS (+105) for an added bonus.

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies (25-28) and New York Mets (27-27) open up a 3-game set Tuesday at Citi Field. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Mets won 14-5 last year

The Phillies split a 4-game set with the Atlanta Braves over the weekend and have been doing a lot of splitting. They’re 5-5 and 10-10 over the last 10 and 20 games, respectively. The Phils are in 4th place in the NL East, 6.5 games behind the Braves, and need to improve on their 11-18 road record to make a run.

The Mets just dropped 2 of 3 games at the Colorado Rockies as they were outslugged 10-7 Saturday and 11-0 Sunday. New York is 6-4 and 10-10 over the last 10 and 20 games, respectively. The Mets are just ahead of Philadelphia in 3rd place, 5 games behind the Braves. They are 12-9 at home and have won 5 in a row in Flushing Meadows.

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Phillies at Mets projected starters

LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Kodai Senga

Suarez (0-1, 9.82 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 2.00 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 in 11 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 5 K against the Arizona Diamondbacks Wednesday
  • 4 career starts vs. Mets: 0-1, 4.41 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 11 K in 16 1/3 IP

Senga (4-3, 3.94 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.52 WHIP, 5.8 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 in 48 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 5 BB, 6 K against Chicago Cubs Wednesday
  • Has issued 3 or more BB in 8 of his 9 starts
  • Much better at home: 2-1, 1.57 ERA, 1.17 WHIP vs. 2-2, 6.12 ERA, 1.84 WHIP on the road

Phillies at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:21 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Mets -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-175) | Mets -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Phillies 4

Moneyline

The Mets have trouble with lefties, going 7-14 on the season against them, but Suarez doesn’t figure to be around long. He has pitched 4, 2 and 5 IP in his 3 starts and allowed at least 3 ER in each. The real question is can Senga keep the walks under control? Philadelphia is 23rd in MLB in walks per game, which is another good sign for the Mets.

The Phils are just 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in New York and 1-5 in the last 6 meetings overall.

Take the METS (-135).

Run line/Against the spread

Neither team is good on the RL this season because they’ve disappointed around .500 much of the season. Philly is 21-32 on the RL (13-16 on the road) and the Mets are 19-35 (7-14 at home).

There have been multi-run wins between these teams in 6 of the last 10 outings. Philadelphia is 16th with a 4.11 bullpen ERA, and New York is 20th at 4.29. We’ll PASS here because I have a good beat on the total.

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Over/Under

There are a lot of reasons to like the Over Tuesday. The wind is blowing out toward left field at 10 mph, so 1B Pete Alonso‘s eyes should light up as he’s hitting .279 with 6 homers and 11 RBI against lefties this year.

The Over cashed in 3 of the last 4 between the clubs and is 4-0-1 in the last 5 for the Mets vs. a left-hander.

Take the OVER 8.5 (-115).

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (31-17) host the Philadelphia Phillies (21-26) in the finale of their 3-game series at Citi Field on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Mets lead 8-3, outscoring the Phillies by 21 runs (61-40)

The Mets beat the Phillies 8-2 Saturday with the standout performers being SS Francisco Lindor (2-for-3, 2 runs, 3 RBIs) and LF Jeff McNeil (1-for-3, including a 3-run homer).

Phillies at Mets projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Chris Bassitt 

Wheeler is 3-3 with a 3.38 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 45 1/3 IP over 8 starts.

  • Last start: 7-3 road victory Monday at the Atlanta Braves with 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 0 HR, 0 BB and 10 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Mets: One start, a 2-0 home loss April 12 with 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 3 K.

Bassitt is 4-2 with a 3.91 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 53 IP across 9 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Mets’ 13-12 loss at the San Francisco Giants Tuesday with 4 1/3 IP, 8 ER, 8 H, 3 HR, 3 BB and 4 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Phillies: One start, a 6-1 home victory May 8 with 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 4 K.

Phillies at Mets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:40 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Mets -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-210) | Mets -1.5 (+170)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Mets 3

Money line

BET PHILLIES (+102).

Wheeler has been lights out this month after a slow start to the season due to an ailing offseason injury.

Wheeler’s season debut was pushed back 5 games. He only threw 65 pitches over 4 2/3 innings in that start, which was against the Mets April 12.

In May, Wheeler is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 16.5 K/BB rate with 3 quality starts out of his 4 outings.

Though a 1st-round pick by the Giants in 2009, Wheeler made his MLB debut for the Mets in 2013. Since leaving New York for Philly after the 2019 season, he has pitched well vs. the Mets. He is 4-2 in 9 career starts against the Mets with a 2.58 ERA (59 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 0.98 WHIP and 6.6 K/BB rate.

BET 1 UNIT ON THE PHILLIES (+102).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS .

The -210 price is too chalky and not worth the risk. Plus, the Phillies are 7-12 RL vs. National League East foes.

Over/Under

PASS.

Philly is 12-4 O/U as a road underdog, while New York is 12-9-1 O/U as a home favorite. But Citi Field is a pitcher-friendly ballpark and ranks 20th in park factor.

Plus, the Under is 9-4-1 in the last 14 head-to-head meetings in New York.

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (21-25) meet the New York Mets (30-17) Saturday at Citi Field for the second game of their 3-game series. First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: N.Y. leads 7-3 and the Mets have a plus-15 run differential.

N.Y. held off a Philly 6-run top of the 6th-inning rally to win the series opener 8-6 Friday. Mets 1B Pete Alonso hit 2-for-2 with a double, 1 home run and 4 RBIs and N.Y.’s pitching staff struck out 12 Phillies batters.

Phillies at Mets projected starters

RHP Zach Eflin vs. RHP Taijuan Walker 

Eflin is 1-3 with a 3.65 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 37 IP over 7 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Philly’s 4-3 home win over the Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday with 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 12 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Mets: Loss, 10-6, May 1 in N.Y. with 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 3 K.

Walker is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9 in 30 IP across 6 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 2-0, Sunday at the Colorado Rockies with 7-scoreless IP, 5 H, 2 BB and 6 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Phillies: 0-0 with a 4.91 ERA (11 IP, 6 ER), 11 H, 2 HR, 4 BB and 7 K over 3 starts.

Phillies at Mets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:07 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Mets -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-190) | Mets -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Mets 4

Money line

BET the PHILLIES (+110) because Eflin is having a career year thus far and the line is stuck even though a majority of the action is on the Mets.

Eflin has career bests in several advanced pitching categories and grades in the 82nd percentile or better in expected batting average, wOBA and slugging percentage slash line, hard-hit rate and exit velocity, per Statcast.

The sportsbooks must be taking respected money on the Phillies because more than 75% of the bets placed at the time of writing are on the Mets (according to Pregame.com) but this line hasn’t budged off the opener.

This line is suspiciously low in the first place. N.Y.’s lineup and bullpen rank higher than Philly’s in several advanced statistics and the Phillies are 13-19 overall vs. right-handed starters while the Mets are 24-9 against righties. Yet N.Y.’s ML is set at only -135. Hmmm.

BET the PHILLIES (+110).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS even though the Phillies +1.5 (-190) should cash but it’s a little too expensive. However, I wouldn’t hate parlaying Philly’s RL with another similarly priced line for a better payout because the Phillies are 12-7 RL as underdogs (10-5 RL as road underdogs).

Over/Under

PASS because the O/U trends are all over the place for Phillies-Mets.

Philly is 6-0-1 O/U in the last 7 games as a road underdog and 15-7 O/U in away games. But, N.Y. is 17-20-2 O/U as a favorite and 0-4 O/U in Walker’s last 4 home starts. The Phillies-Mets are also 3-9-1 O/U over their last 12 meetings in N.Y.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (11-11) and New York Mets (15-7) meet in the rubber match of their 3-game series on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball. First pitch is 7:08 p.m. ET at Citi Field. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillis vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Mets hold a 3-2 season series lead, having taken 2 of 3 in Philly April 11-13 and splitting the first 2 games of this series.

The Phillies have won 5 of their 6. They swept a 4-game home series against the Colorado Rockies and beat the Mets 4-1 Saturday.

The Mets have lost 2 of their last 3. However, they’ve won every series they’ve played this season, losing just 1 game in each set.

Phillies at Mets projected starters

RHP Zach Eflin vs. RHP Max Scherzer

Eflin (1-1, 3.20 ERA) makes his fifth start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 4 BB and 15 K through 19 2/3 IP.

  • Eflin went 6 innings in his last start and picked up his first win of 2022, allowing just 1 run on 2 hits.
  • He started twice last season against the Mets with a 2.25 ERA (3 ER, 12 IP and no decisions.

Scherzer (3-0, 1.80 ERA) makes his fifth start. He has a 0.76 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 11.9 K/9 through 25 IP.

  • After allowing 3 earned runs in his first start of the season, he has given up only 2 in his last 19 innings.
  • He pitched 7 innings in each of his last 2 starts and struck out 10 in each game.

Phillies at Mets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:15 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Mets -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-155) | Mets -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 4, Phillies 2

Money line

PASS.

It is right on the edge of being too pricy to bet the Mets (-180) and having it be worth your time.

The Phillies are 3-6 on the road and Scherzer has been just fantastic in his last 3 starts.

I like the Mets to win this game but don’t like the bet. PASS

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Run line/Against the spread

The Mets have won all 4 of Scherzer’s starts this season by at least 2 runs. Thirteen of their 15 wins have been by 2 or more runs.

Eight of the Phillies’ 11 losses are by more than 1 run.

The Mets are 4-1 ATS this season against the Phillies.

I like the Mets to win and to cover, which gives you the best value of the night. TAKE THE METS -1.5 (+125).

Over/Under

Three of the 5 games between the Mets and Phillies this season have had 5 or fewer runs.

Scherzer has not allowed more than 1 run in any of his last 3 starts.

I anticipate a low-scoring pitching duel between Eflin and Scherzer.

Take UNDER 6.5 (-107).

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Jess Root on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (10-11) visit the New York Mets (15-6) Saturday for the second of their 3-game set at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York starting pitcher Tylor Megill and four Mets relievers combined to a throw a no-hitter in New York’s 3-0 series-opening victory over Philly Friday.

Season series: New York leads 3-1, outscoring Philly 18-11.

Phillies at Mets projected starters

RHP Kyle Gibson vs. RHP Taijuan Walker 

Gibson (2-1, 3.47 ERA) beat the Rockies 8-2 Monday, throwing 5 2/3 IP, allowing 2 ER on 3 H, 2 HR and 2 BB with 4 K.

  • 2021 vs. the Mets: 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 11 H, 5 BB and 12 K in 2 starts.
  • vs. Mets on the current roster: 3.68 FIP with a .243 expected batting average (xBA), .296 expected wOBA (xwOBA), .339 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 16.3 K% and 87.0 mph exit velocity (EV) in 178 plate appearances (PA).

Walker (0-0, 0.00 ERA) has only pitched 2-scoreless innings before going on the IL with bursitis in his right shoulder that’s kept him sidelined the past couple of weeks. His only start came against Philly on April 11 where he struck out four Phillies, walked zero and allowed no hits.

  • 2021 vs. the Phillies: 1-2 with a 3.15 ERA (34 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 0.93 WHIP and 8.7 K/9 over 7 starts.
  • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 6.71 FIP with a .257 xBA, .362 xwOBA, .567 xSLG, 21.2 K% and 87.9 mph EV in 118 PA.

Phillies at Mets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:50 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Mets -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-200) | Mets -1.5 (+160)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Mets 4

Money line

BET the PHILLIES (+110) because I’m fading the Mets (-135) following their no-hitter since they used a bunch of relief pitchers and Walker will be on a pitch limit with it being his first start back from the IL.

Furthermore, Gibson’s pitching peripherals both to start the year and versus New York’s lineup are amazing whereas Walker’s advanced pitching numbers against this Phillies lineup are poor.

Also, the Phillies appear to be the contrarian side since most of the cash and bets placed are on the Mets, according to Tipico Sportsbook. A contrarian mindset is a profitable foundation in sports betting because the public loves to bet favorites and the house usually wins.

BET PHILLIES (+110).

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW22 for $15 OFF a Draft Prep or full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 4/30/2022. Subscribe today and start winning!

Run line/Against the spread

PASS. 

The Phillies +1.5 (-200) is too expensive and I’m not confident enough in Philadelphia to bet its -1.5 alternate RL at a plus-money payout. Also, the Mets -1.5 (+160) have clear edges in hitting and bullpen pitching, so New York could backdoor cover the RL versus Philly’s poor bullpen.

Over/Under

PASS.

Most of the action is on the Over but the total hasn’t budged off the opener so that leads me to think that the Under may be the sharp play. But, I’m fading New York’s pitching staff of its no-hitter-high, and Philly’s bullpen cannot be trusted.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (14-6) host the NL East rival Philadelphia Phillies (10-10) Friday for the start of a 3-game set at Citi Field with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Philly completed a 4-game home sweep of the Colorado Rockies Thursday after losing back-to-back 2-1 series to the visiting Milwaukee Brewers and at the Rockies last week.

New York has won all 6 series so far this year but had a 3-game winning streak snapped Thursday in a 10-5 loss at the St. Louis Cardinals, which featured a bench-clearing brouhaha.

Season series: New York leads 2-1, outscoring Philly 15-11.

Phillies at Mets projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Tylor Megill 

Nola (1-2, 3.74 ERA) pitched a 7-inning. scoreless gem in Philly’s 1-0 loss Sunday night in Milwaukee, striking out 9 with just 1 H and 1 BB.

  • 2022 vs. the Mets: Lost 9-6 at home behind 3 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 5 K April 13.
  • vs. Mets on the current roster: 3.26 FIP with a .246 expected batting average (xBA), .320 expected wOBA (xwOBA), .379 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 29.3 K% and 88.1 mph exit velocity (EV) in 246 plate appearances (PA).

Megill (3-0, 2.35 ERA) beat the Arizona Diamondbacks Sunday 6-2, working 6 2/3 IP with 2 ER on 5 H and 1 BB with 7 K.

  • 2021 vs. the Phillies: Win 2-0 in 5 1/3 IP with 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 5 K at Philly April 12.
  • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 3.36 FIP with a .333 xBA, .397 xwOBA, .609 xSLG, 23.1 K% and 94.0 mph EV in 26 PA.

Phillies at Mets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:50 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Mets -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-210) | Mets -1.5 (+170)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 4, Phillies 2

Money line

BET METS (-130).

They have a clear edge in two of the three most important phases of baseball (relief pitching and hitting) and their ML price is cheap because Nola might be a tad overrated. There is value in fading Nola coming off an impressive start on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball.

New York’s lineup has the best WAR in the MLB (per FanGraphs) and ranks in the top 3 of wRC+, wOBA and BB/K versus right-handed pitching, better than the Phillies in each metric.

New York’s bullpen ranks first in xFIP, second in WAR and fifth in home runs allowed per 9 innings. Philly’s bullpen is 18th in WAR and 19th in xFIP.

BET 1 UNIT ON METS (-130).

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW22 for $15 OFF a Draft Prep or full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 4/30/2022. Subscribe today and start winning!

Run line/Against the spread

SPRINKLE on the METS -1.5 (+170) because it’s a fat payout, New York is 4-2 RL as a home favorite and New York’s lineup should rake Philly’s below-average bullpen.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 6.5 (+110) only because this is a “sharp” total.

There’s more money on the Under, while more bets have been placed on the Over (per Pregame.com), which indicates the professionals are hitting the Under.

Also, Phillies-Mets is 1-7-2 O/U in their last 10 meetings, the weather forecast is predicting roughly 12 mph winds blowing in from left-center field and Citi Field is a pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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