Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets odds predictions pick betting line spread

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (29-13) and New York Mets (19-21) meet for the 2nd-game of a 4-game series Tuesday. First pitch from Citi Field is set for 1:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Philadelphia leads 1-0

Philadelphia won 5-4 win in 10 innings in Monday’s series opener while covering as a +106 road underdog. 2B-SS Bryson Stott went 2-of-4 at the plate with 1 HR and 2 RBIs, including the game-winning sacrifice fly.

New York led 4-2 entering the 9th, but allowed the Phillies to tie it and win it in the 10th. The Mets have allowed 4 or more runs in each of their last 3 losses.

Phillies at Mets projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Jose Butto

Nola (4-2, 3.67 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 49 IP.

Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 0 BB, 7 K in a 5-3 loss at Toronto Wednesday
Career vs. Mets: 9-8, 3.40 ERA (150 2/3 IP, 57 ER), 123 H, 48 BB, 190 K in 26 starts

Butto (1-2, 3.00 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 33 IP.

Last start: Win, 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 3 K in a 7-5 loss at St. Louis Tuesday
Career vs. Phillies: 0-2, 8.36 ERA (14 IP, 13 ER), 18 H, 6 BB, 14 K in 3 starts

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Phillies at Mets odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:07 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Phillies -146 (bet $146 to win $100) | Mets +124 (bet $100 to win $124)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+114) | Mets +1.5 (-137)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Mets 3

Moneyline

BET PHILLIES (-146).

Philadelphia has won 3 of its last 4 road games and is 8-2 in its last 10 overall while the Mets are only 1-3 in their last 4 and 4-6 in their last 10. The Phillies have also won back-to-back games against New York and are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Phillies have both the better record and more talented roster. Because of this and Philly’s current streak, I expect the Phillies to cover as -1.5 (+112) favorites. However, Philadelphia’s odds are safer on the moneyline and I am not a fan of doubling down, so bet on the moneyline and/or total instead.

Over/Under

BET OVER 7.5 (-115).

The Over has hit in 4 consecutive road games for the Phillies and is 7-2-1 in its last 10 overall. The Over has also hit in each of the last 3 Philadelphia-New York matchups in New York, being 6-3-1 in the last 10 meetings overall.

Be aware that the Over is only 5-5 in New York’s last 10 games.

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (28-13) and New York Mets (19-20) open a 4-game series Monday. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Phillies won 7-6 last season (home teams went 11-2)

New York avoided the sweep by defeating the Atlanta Braves 4-3 on Sunday Night Baseball, thanks to a walkoff 2-run HR by CF Brandon Nimmo. All 3 games vs. the Braves at Citi Field went under the total, as the Mets bullpen has been solid, collectively sporting an NL-low 2.79 ERA.

Philadelphia lost for just the 2nd time in 11 games as the Marlins emerged as 7-6 winners in Miami Sunday. In contrast to the Mets, all 3 games between the Phillies and Marlins went over the total. Philadelphia’s offense has produced the 2nd-most runs (213) and RBIs (203), and it has the 2nd-highest OBP (.336) in the league this season.

Phillies at Mets projected starters

LHP Cristopher Sanchez vs. LHP Sean Manaea

Sanchez (2-3, 3.22 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 36 1/3 innings.

Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 10-1 victory over Toronto Blue Jays Tuesday
Sports lowest barrel percentage (3.6%) among 57 starting pitchers in NL with at least 30 IP

Manaea (2-1, 3.31 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.39 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 35 1/3 innings.

Last start: Win, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 4-3 victory over St. Louis Cardinals May 6
Features 2nd-lowest home-run-to-fly-ball percentage (2.2%) — but 3rd-highest BB/9 — among qualified NL starters

Phillies at Mets odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Phillies -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Mets +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+142) | Mets +1.5 (-172)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -114 | U: -106)

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Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Philadelphia 4, New York 3

Moneyline

BACK PHILLIES (-120).

Philadelphia boasts 4 players in the top 15 for OBP among qualified hitters vs. LHP (3B Alec Bohm, C J.T. Realmuto, DH Kyle Schwarber and 2B Bryson Stott). Phillies 1B Bryce Harper leads all MLB hitters in hard-hit percentage (45.5%) with Schwarber in 3rd (42.3%) and LF Brandon Marsh in 7th (40.2%).

I expect them to support their starter and bullpen enough to pull out the road win.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I would not fault anyone for laying the juice with the Mets +1.5 (-172) since they have positive momentum after Sunday night’s walkoff win. Mets 1B Pete Alonso is 6 for 16 with 6 RBIs over his last 4 games, so there is a decent chance the Polar Bear stays hot and keeps his team in it.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7.5 (-106).

Both teams are dealing with injuries, and Baseball Savant ranks Citi Field as the most inferior ballpark in the NL when it comes to run production.

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The New York Mets (29-27) welcome the Philadelphia Phillies (25-30) to Citi Field Thursday. First pitch is set for 1:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 2-0

The Phillies have struggled as of late, losing 6 of their last 9 games. Philadelphia is just 11-20 on the road this season.

New York is 14-9 at home this season. The Mets have won 9 of their last 13 games. They are on a 7-game home winning streak.

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Phillies at Mets projected starters

RHP Taijuan Walker vs. RHP Max Scherzer

Walker (4-2, 5.57 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 53 1/3 innings.

Phillies are 7-4 in his 11 starters
Allowed a season-high 10 hits against the Braves in his last start
Spent the last 2 seasons with the Mets and earned his lone All-Star appearance with the club in 2021

Scherzer (4-2, 3.54 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 3.54 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 40 2/3 innings.

The 38-year-old 3-time Cy Young winner hasn’t been an All-Star the last 2 seasons
Mets are 6-2 in his starts
Has allowed just 2 ER over his last 3 starts (18 IP).

Phillies at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:32 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Phillies +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Mets -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-145) | Mets -1.5 (+120)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 4, Phillies 3

Moneyline

PASS.

The Mets have gotten 2 outstanding pitching performances in this series. While those may continue, the Phillies’ bats should heat up at some point.

There’s too much talent not to. Philadelphia has played well with Walker on the mound, but it just isn’t quite even value to play it to win outright at (+145). Ultimately, this is a PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

BET PHILLIES +1.5 (-145).

The juice is there, but the Mets have not been good as a favorite this season. They are just 12-29 on the run line as a favorite. New York is 4-13 on the run line as a favorite at home.

Scherzer has given up at least 6 hits in 2 of his last 4 starts as well. The Phillies have only been swept 3 times this season and should be able to bounce back Thursday with Walker on the mound.

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Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-105).

If there’s one thing both teams have been good at, especially in the 1st 2 games, it is hitting the Under. Philadelphia is 23-28-4 O/U this season and 1-3 O/U in its last 4 games.

It has scored just 1 run in the last 2 games against the Mets. The Mets have scored just 6. New York is 5-28-3 O/U this season and 3-4 O/U in its last 7.

With 2 strong pitchers on the mound, take the UNDER 8.5 (-105).

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with expert MLB picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies (25-29) play the middle contest of a 3-game series with the New York Mets (28-27) Wednesday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 1-0; New York won season series 14-5 in 2022

The Phillies suffered a 2-0 loss in the series opener Tuesday night in Queens. It was Philadelphia’s 1st shutout loss since May 14 in Colorado, and the 5th time the Phils have been blanked this season.

Philadelphia has won just 2 of its last 9 games on the road, while cashing at a 2-5 clip in the last 7 games inside the NL East. The Phils are also 1-4 in the last 5 road games against a right-handed starting pitcher.

New York had allowed 21 runs in the final 2 games of the road series against the Rockies, so the shutout back at sea level was nice. It was the 1st shutout win for the Mets since May 5 at home against Colorado and the 4th shutout victory this season.

The Mets have won 6 in a row, while going 7-2 in the last 9 games against a right-handed starting pitcher. New York is 5-2 in the past 7 tries after posting a victory, too.

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Phillies at Mets projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco

Nola (4-3, 4.59 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 68 2/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 5 ER, 8 H (3 HR), 2 BB, 7 K in an 8-5 road loss Thursday vs. the Atlanta Braves
2023 road splits: 2-2, 5.02 ERA (43 IP, 24 ER) with a .244 opponent batting average (OBA) in 7 starts

Carrasco (1-2, 6.75 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 5.3 K/9 in 25 1/3 innings.

Last start: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K in a 10-1 road win Thursday vs. the Chicago Cubs
2023 home splits: 0-1, 10.24 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 11 ER) with 5 BB, 4 K and a .289 OBA in 2 starts

Phillies at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:15 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Mets +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+135) | Mets +1.5 (-160)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Mets 3

Moneyline

The PHILLIES (-125) are a strong play on the road, as they look for a bounce back after getting blanked.

Phils OF Bryce Harper should be rested, as he and his teammates did not play on Memorial Day, and he was given a scheduled day off Tuesday, too, after playing every day since May 2.

I like the Philadelphia offense to get it done against Carrasco. SS Trea Turner has rolled up 6 hits, including 3 doubles and 3 RBI, in just 8 career at-bats against the veteran right-hander. Look for the Phils to roll.

Run line/Against the spread

The PHILLIES -1.5 (+135) are a solid play on the run line, as they look to bounce back, although Nola does have a 4.59 ERA which is a little concerning.

While Philadelphia has failed to cover the run line as a favorite in 4 straight, including 2 outright losses, I just don’t trust Carrasco. Plus, the Mets +1.5 (-160) are just 1-2 on the run line in 3 games as an underdog since May 3.

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Over/Under

The OVER 8.5 (-120) is a solid play in the middle game.

I expressed my concern about Carrasco, who has a 6.75 ERA, Nola has been very giving lately, too. He served up 3 homers last time out in Atlanta, and he has allowed at least 1 home run in each of his past 7 starts dating back to mid-April.

In fact, as far as the player props are concerned, I like both CARRASCO OVER 2.5 RUNS (-130) and NOLA OVER 2.5 RUNS (+105) for an added bonus.

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies (25-28) and New York Mets (27-27) open up a 3-game set Tuesday at Citi Field. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Mets won 14-5 last year

The Phillies split a 4-game set with the Atlanta Braves over the weekend and have been doing a lot of splitting. They’re 5-5 and 10-10 over the last 10 and 20 games, respectively. The Phils are in 4th place in the NL East, 6.5 games behind the Braves, and need to improve on their 11-18 road record to make a run.

The Mets just dropped 2 of 3 games at the Colorado Rockies as they were outslugged 10-7 Saturday and 11-0 Sunday. New York is 6-4 and 10-10 over the last 10 and 20 games, respectively. The Mets are just ahead of Philadelphia in 3rd place, 5 games behind the Braves. They are 12-9 at home and have won 5 in a row in Flushing Meadows.

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Phillies at Mets projected starters

LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Kodai Senga

Suarez (0-1, 9.82 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 2.00 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 in 11 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 5 K against the Arizona Diamondbacks Wednesday
4 career starts vs. Mets: 0-1, 4.41 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 11 K in 16 1/3 IP

Senga (4-3, 3.94 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.52 WHIP, 5.8 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 in 48 innings.

Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 5 BB, 6 K against Chicago Cubs Wednesday
Has issued 3 or more BB in 8 of his 9 starts
Much better at home: 2-1, 1.57 ERA, 1.17 WHIP vs. 2-2, 6.12 ERA, 1.84 WHIP on the road

Phillies at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:21 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Mets -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-175) | Mets -1.5 (+145)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Phillies 4

Moneyline

The Mets have trouble with lefties, going 7-14 on the season against them, but Suarez doesn’t figure to be around long. He has pitched 4, 2 and 5 IP in his 3 starts and allowed at least 3 ER in each. The real question is can Senga keep the walks under control? Philadelphia is 23rd in MLB in walks per game, which is another good sign for the Mets.

The Phils are just 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in New York and 1-5 in the last 6 meetings overall.

Take the METS (-135).

Run line/Against the spread

Neither team is good on the RL this season because they’ve disappointed around .500 much of the season. Philly is 21-32 on the RL (13-16 on the road) and the Mets are 19-35 (7-14 at home).

There have been multi-run wins between these teams in 6 of the last 10 outings. Philadelphia is 16th with a 4.11 bullpen ERA, and New York is 20th at 4.29. We’ll PASS here because I have a good beat on the total.

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Over/Under

There are a lot of reasons to like the Over Tuesday. The wind is blowing out toward left field at 10 mph, so 1B Pete Alonso‘s eyes should light up as he’s hitting .279 with 6 homers and 11 RBI against lefties this year.

The Over cashed in 3 of the last 4 between the clubs and is 4-0-1 in the last 5 for the Mets vs. a left-hander.

Take the OVER 8.5 (-115).

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (63-50) wrap up their 3-game series at Citi Field Sunday with the New York Mets (74-40) with the 1st pitch scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

This is the rubber match as the Phillies won the series opener 2-1 in extra innings Friday. Then the Mets evened the series with a 1-0 victory Saturday.

Mets SP Jacob deGrom threw a 6-inning, 10-strikeout scoreless gem Saturday vs. Philly, allowing no walks and just 2 hits.

Season series: N.Y. leads 10-4 with a plus-22 run differential in those meetings (68-46).

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Phillies at Mets projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Chris Bassitt

Wheeler is 11-5 with a 2.63 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 126 2/3 IP over 21 starts.

Last start: Win, 4-1, at home Tuesday vs. the Miami Marlins with 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 8 K.
2022 vs. the Mets: 0-1 with a 1.69 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 6 H, 1 HR, 4 BB and 10 K in 2 starts.

Bassitt is 9-7 with a 3.39 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 130 IP across 21 starts.

Last start: Win, 5-1, Monday at home vs. the Cincinnati Reds with 8 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 8 H, 1 BB and 8 K.
2022 vs. the Phillies: 1-0 with a 1.54 ERA (11 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 7 H, 1 HR, 4 BB and 11 K in 2 starts.

Phillies at Mets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:15 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Phillies +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Mets -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-190) | Mets -1.5 (+155)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Mets 1

Money line

BET PHILLIES (+115) because Wheeler pitches better as the season winds down throughout his career, and he has been dominant recently.

August is Wheeler’s 2nd-best month by winning percentage (19-8), ERA (2.97) and WHIP (1.14). Also, Wheeler is 5-1 straight up (SU) with a 2.17 ERA over his last 7 starts, allowing 1 or 0 earned runs in 5 of those outings.

Wheeler might not be an NL Cy Young finalist, but he’s having an outstanding season. He grades in the 78th percentile or better in expected ERA over expected wOBA, hard-hit rate, K%, BB%, exit velocity and chase rate, per Statcast.

Finally, Philly is 6-4 SU with a plus-31.0% return on investment as road underdogs with Wheeler on the mound since he joined the Phillies in 2020.

BET the PHILLIES (+115).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Phillies +1.5 (-190) would be the play since they are 22-9 RL as road underdogs, but the Phillies are far too expensive.

Furthermore, the Mets -1.5 (+155) are 27-25 RL as home favorites and 10-4 RL vs. the Phillies this season.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-125) because Wheeler is a bona fide ace, Bassitt has looked good in his 1st 2 starts vs. the Phillies this year and Citi Field is 24th in park factor aka pitcher-friendly.

That said, these teams play more to the Over in most of their situational trends, and the Phillies-Mets have a combined 23-17 O/U record when these starters are on the hill.

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (63-49) and New York Mets (73-40) meet Saturday at 7:10 p.m. ET to continue a 3-game NL East series at Citi Field. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: New York leads 9-4. The Phillies snapped a 4-game series losing streak by downing the Mets 2-1 in a 10-inning Friday lid-lifter.

The Phillies are 13-2 over their last 15 games. Philadelphia hurlers have logged a fine 3.18 ERA over that stretch. The club is 9-1 over its last 10 games on the road following Friday’s win.

The Mets had won 6 in a row heading into this set. They are 15-3 and have outscored opponents 106-59 since July 24.

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Phillies at Mets projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Jacob deGrom

Nola (8-8, 3.17 ERA) has authored a 0.95 WHIP, 1.2 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 through 144 2/3 IP across 22 starts.

Has posted a 3.86 ERA across 16 1/3 IP in 3 meetings with the Mets this season.
Owns a 1.51 ERA over his last 59 2/3 IP on the road.

DeGrom (1-0, 2.53 ERA) returns to the mound for his 3rd start of the season. He has a 0.47 WHIP, 0.8 BB/9 and 15.2 K/9 through 10 2/3 IP.

Did not make his first start of the season until July 30 due to a prolonged stay on the IL with a shoulder injury.
Has held current Philadelphia bats to an aggregate .608 OPS.

Phillies at Mets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:26 a.m. ET.

Money line: Phillies +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Mets -205 (bet $205 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-140) | Mets -1.5 (+115)
Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 3, Phillies 2

Money line

PASS: slightly more leverage can be gained on the Run Line.

Run line/Against the spread

There is some baked-in “Phillies-and-Under” sway to this series, and those were the calls in this corner for Friday’s opener. Saturday’s lean is similar but on smaller margins.

Go with a partial-unit play on PHILADELPHIA +1.5 (-140). Feel free to go all in at -135 or better.

Over/Under

Both offenses are a little over-amped compared to their support analytics. The opposite holds true for both of these bullpens, and the immediate prognosis for both is strong.

The mound matchup is an elite one. The total mostly reflects that, but there is a sliver of value remaining on the low side.

TAKE THE UNDER 6.5 (-110). Consider dialing down the play to a half unit unless the price on 6.5 gets closer to +100 territory.

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (62-49) and New York Mets (73-39) meet Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET to open a 3-game NL East series at Citi Field. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies at Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: New York leads 9-3. The Mets have won 4 in a row from the Phils dating back to May 8.

The Phillies head north off a 6-1 home stand. Since July 27, Philadelphia pitching has dealt out a 3.37 ERA. The club has gone 12-2 over that stretch. One thing to keep an eye on, though, OF Kyle Schwarber left Thursday’s game with a calf issue. He’s likely questionable for this one.

The Mets have ace RHP Max Scherzer on the hill, and they’re 8-2 and 15-5 over their last 10 and 20 games, respectively. They are getting healthy at the right time.

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Phillies at Mets projected starters

LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Max Scherzer

Suarez (8-5, 3.68 ERA) is tabbed for his 20th start of the season. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 100 1/3 IP.

Owns a 2.63 ERA since June 17.
Has pitched 11 scoreless innings over his last 2 road starts.

Scherzer (8-2, 1.98 ERA) owns a 0.90 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 through 95 2/3 IP across 15 starts.

Coming off 7 shutout IP (and 11K) in his last start (Saturday vs. Atlanta Braves).
Has authored a 1.77 ERA, 0.85 WHIP across 45 2/3 IP at Citi Field.
Has held current Philadelphia batters to a low-contact .597 OPS in past meetings.

Phillies at Mets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.

Money line: Phillies +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Mets -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-135) | Mets -1.5 (+110)
Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 3, Mets 2

Money line

Scherzer is coming off back-to-back starts with pitch counts over 100, and the Phillies have gotten to him a bit the last two times he has faced them.

The visiting 9 is the lean, but it will take a +185 to trigger a partial-unit play. PASS otherwise.

Run line/Against the spread

Much the same calculus as above: the Phils +1.5 are a lean but only at -125 or better. Otherwise, the O/U action figures as the best route to profits in Friday’s opener. PASS.

Over/Under

The starting pitching matchup is a run-suppressant one. And the lefty-righty matchup angles into weaker platoon splits on both sides.

Both bullpens have had some shaky surface numbers in the last month, the Phillies most especially (5.08 ERA last 30 days). But both carry in effective analytic lines that point to better days.

On a breeze-blowing-in evening a pitcher-friendly Citi Field, TAKE THE UNDER 6.5 (+105).

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (31-17) host the Philadelphia Phillies (21-26) in the finale of their 3-game series at Citi Field on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Mets lead 8-3, outscoring the Phillies by 21 runs (61-40)

The Mets beat the Phillies 8-2 Saturday with the standout performers being SS Francisco Lindor (2-for-3, 2 runs, 3 RBIs) and LF Jeff McNeil (1-for-3, including a 3-run homer).

Phillies at Mets projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Chris Bassitt

Wheeler is 3-3 with a 3.38 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 45 1/3 IP over 8 starts.

Last start: 7-3 road victory Monday at the Atlanta Braves with 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 0 HR, 0 BB and 10 K.
2022 vs. the Mets: One start, a 2-0 home loss April 12 with 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 3 K.

Bassitt is 4-2 with a 3.91 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 53 IP across 9 starts.

Last start: No-decision in Mets’ 13-12 loss at the San Francisco Giants Tuesday with 4 1/3 IP, 8 ER, 8 H, 3 HR, 3 BB and 4 K.
2022 vs. the Phillies: One start, a 6-1 home victory May 8 with 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 4 K.

Phillies at Mets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:40 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Phillies +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Mets -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-210) | Mets -1.5 (+170)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Mets 3

Money line

BET PHILLIES (+102).

Wheeler has been lights out this month after a slow start to the season due to an ailing offseason injury.

Wheeler’s season debut was pushed back 5 games. He only threw 65 pitches over 4 2/3 innings in that start, which was against the Mets April 12.

In May, Wheeler is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 16.5 K/BB rate with 3 quality starts out of his 4 outings.

Though a 1st-round pick by the Giants in 2009, Wheeler made his MLB debut for the Mets in 2013. Since leaving New York for Philly after the 2019 season, he has pitched well vs. the Mets. He is 4-2 in 9 career starts against the Mets with a 2.58 ERA (59 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 0.98 WHIP and 6.6 K/BB rate.

BET 1 UNIT ON THE PHILLIES (+102).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS .

The -210 price is too chalky and not worth the risk. Plus, the Phillies are 7-12 RL vs. National League East foes.

Over/Under

PASS.

Philly is 12-4 O/U as a road underdog, while New York is 12-9-1 O/U as a home favorite. But Citi Field is a pitcher-friendly ballpark and ranks 20th in park factor.

Plus, the Under is 9-4-1 in the last 14 head-to-head meetings in New York.

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (21-25) meet the New York Mets (30-17) Saturday at Citi Field for the second game of their 3-game series. First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: N.Y. leads 7-3 and the Mets have a plus-15 run differential.

N.Y. held off a Philly 6-run top of the 6th-inning rally to win the series opener 8-6 Friday. Mets 1B Pete Alonso hit 2-for-2 with a double, 1 home run and 4 RBIs and N.Y.’s pitching staff struck out 12 Phillies batters.

Phillies at Mets projected starters

RHP Zach Eflin vs. RHP Taijuan Walker

Eflin is 1-3 with a 3.65 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 37 IP over 7 starts.

Last start: No-decision in Philly’s 4-3 home win over the Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday with 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 12 K.
2022 vs. the Mets: Loss, 10-6, May 1 in N.Y. with 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 3 K.

Walker is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9 in 30 IP across 6 starts.

Last start: Win, 2-0, Sunday at the Colorado Rockies with 7-scoreless IP, 5 H, 2 BB and 6 K.
2022 vs. the Phillies: 0-0 with a 4.91 ERA (11 IP, 6 ER), 11 H, 2 HR, 4 BB and 7 K over 3 starts.

Phillies at Mets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:07 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Mets -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-190) | Mets -1.5 (+155)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Mets 4

Money line

BET the PHILLIES (+110) because Eflin is having a career year thus far and the line is stuck even though a majority of the action is on the Mets.

Eflin has career bests in several advanced pitching categories and grades in the 82nd percentile or better in expected batting average, wOBA and slugging percentage slash line, hard-hit rate and exit velocity, per Statcast.

The sportsbooks must be taking respected money on the Phillies because more than 75% of the bets placed at the time of writing are on the Mets (according to Pregame.com) but this line hasn’t budged off the opener.

This line is suspiciously low in the first place. N.Y.’s lineup and bullpen rank higher than Philly’s in several advanced statistics and the Phillies are 13-19 overall vs. right-handed starters while the Mets are 24-9 against righties. Yet N.Y.’s ML is set at only -135. Hmmm.

BET the PHILLIES (+110).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS even though the Phillies +1.5 (-190) should cash but it’s a little too expensive. However, I wouldn’t hate parlaying Philly’s RL with another similarly priced line for a better payout because the Phillies are 12-7 RL as underdogs (10-5 RL as road underdogs).

Over/Under

PASS because the O/U trends are all over the place for Phillies-Mets.

Philly is 6-0-1 O/U in the last 7 games as a road underdog and 15-7 O/U in away games. But, N.Y. is 17-20-2 O/U as a favorite and 0-4 O/U in Walker’s last 4 home starts. The Phillies-Mets are also 3-9-1 O/U over their last 12 meetings in N.Y.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
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