[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
The Philadelphia Phillies (28-13) and New York Mets (19-20) open a 4-game series Monday. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Phillies won 7-6 last season (home teams went 11-2)
New York avoided the sweep by defeating the Atlanta Braves 4-3 on Sunday Night Baseball, thanks to a walkoff 2-run HR by CF Brandon Nimmo. All 3 games vs. the Braves at Citi Field went under the total, as the Mets bullpen has been solid, collectively sporting an NL-low 2.79 ERA.
Philadelphia lost for just the 2nd time in 11 games as the Marlins emerged as 7-6 winners in Miami Sunday. In contrast to the Mets, all 3 games between the Phillies and Marlins went over the total. Philadelphia’s offense has produced the 2nd-most runs (213) and RBIs (203), and it has the 2nd-highest OBP (.336) in the league this season.
Phillies at Mets projected starters
LHP Cristopher Sanchez vs. LHP Sean Manaea
Sanchez (2-3, 3.22 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 36 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 10-1 victory over Toronto Blue Jays Tuesday
- Sports lowest barrel percentage (3.6%) among 57 starting pitchers in NL with at least 30 IP
Manaea (2-1, 3.31 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.39 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 35 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 4-3 victory over St. Louis Cardinals May 6
- Features 2nd-lowest home-run-to-fly-ball percentage (2.2%) — but 3rd-highest BB/9 — among qualified NL starters
Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! BHQ offers Draft Prep and full-season subscriptions. Sign up today and start winning!
Phillies at Mets odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Mets +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+142) | Mets +1.5 (-172)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -114 | U: -106)
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]
Phillies at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Philadelphia 4, New York 3
Moneyline
BACK PHILLIES (-120).
Philadelphia boasts 4 players in the top 15 for OBP among qualified hitters vs. LHP (3B Alec Bohm, C J.T. Realmuto, DH Kyle Schwarber and 2B Bryson Stott). Phillies 1B Bryce Harper leads all MLB hitters in hard-hit percentage (45.5%) with Schwarber in 3rd (42.3%) and LF Brandon Marsh in 7th (40.2%).
I expect them to support their starter and bullpen enough to pull out the road win.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I would not fault anyone for laying the juice with the Mets +1.5 (-172) since they have positive momentum after Sunday night’s walkoff win. Mets 1B Pete Alonso is 6 for 16 with 6 RBIs over his last 4 games, so there is a decent chance the Polar Bear stays hot and keeps his team in it.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 7.5 (-106).
Both teams are dealing with injuries, and Baseball Savant ranks Citi Field as the most inferior ballpark in the NL when it comes to run production.
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow @TheBigCheeShow on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]