Tag: Phillies Cardinals odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (4-5) and St. Louis Cardinals (5-5) open a 3-game series Monday. First pitch from Busch Stadium is set for 7:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Philadelphia won 5-1 last season

Philadelphia lost 3-2 to the Washington Nationals Sunday, failing to cover as a -149 road favorite. The Phillies won the series 2-1.

St. Louis was routed 10-3 by the Miami Marlins Sunday while failing to cover as a -137 home favorite. The Cards won the series 2-1. The Cardinals allowed a whopping 7 runs in the 1st 2 innings, digging themselves into a 7-0 hole that proved to be insurmountable.

Phillies at Cardinals projected starters

RHP Spencer Turnbull vs. RHP Miles Mikolas

Turnbull (1-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He has a 0.60 WHIP, 0.0 BB/9 and 12.6 K/9 in 5 IP.

  • 2023 road splits: 1-1, 8.44 ERA (16 IP, 15 ER), 24 H, 8 BB, 17 K in 4 starts
  • Career vs. St. Louis: 0-0, 9.64 ERA (4 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 1 start

Mikolas (1-1, 6.10 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.65 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 10 1/3 IP.

  • 2023 home splits: 3-7, 5.55 ERA (99 IP, 61 ER), 113 H, 18 BB, 78 K across 18 starts
  • Career vs. Philadelphia: 2-3, 4.54 ERA (37 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 39 H, 5 BB, 19 K in 6 starts and 1 relief appearance

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Phillies at Cardinals odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 11:36 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Cardinals -118 (bet $118 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+162) | Cardinals +1.5 (-196)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: +100)

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Phillies at Cardinals picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 3, Cardinals 2

Moneyline

LEAN PHILLIES (+100).

Philadelphia has won 7 of its last 10 matchups vs. the Cardinals overall and is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in St. Louis.

I expect St. Louis to have more trouble finding success at bat against Turnbull than Philly will against Mikolas.

This is a risky bet as neither team has looked great to start the season and  both are coming off of a loss.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

These teams look to be very evenly matched, so I like the Cardinals to keep this game close and cover as +1.5 (-196) underdogs, but they are not worth the risk of betting on with this heavy of a line. Bet on the moneyline and/or O/U instead.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8.5 (+100).

The Under has hit in each of Philly’s last 4 games, including 3 straight on the road. For St. Louis, the Under is 3-2 in its last 5 games. The Under has also hit in 6 of the last 10 Philadelphia-St. Louis matchups overall and is 4-3 in the last 7 meetings in St. Louis.

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Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (79-67) and St. Louis Cardinals (65-81) open up a 3-game set at Busch Stadium Friday. First pitch is at 8:15 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 3-0

The Phillies limp into Gateway City after dropping 5 of 7 games to the Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins at home. They are now 10-10 and 15-15 over the last 20 and 30 games, respectively. Philadelphia has a 1 1/2-game lead over the Chicago Cubs for the top NL Wild Card spot.

The Cardinals took 2 of 3 games from the Baltimore Orioles to start the week. They are 7-3 over the last 10 games but still remain 10 games out of an NL Wild Card spot with 16 games to go. St. Louis was dominated by today’s starter — RHP Aaron Nola — in a 3-0 loss Aug. 27.

Phillies at Cardinals projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. LHP Zack Thompson

Nola (12-9, 4.64 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 176 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 6 K Wednesday against the Miami Marlins
  • Last 5 regular season starts vs. Cardinals: 3-1, 2.25 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, 41 K in 36 IP

Thompson (5-5, 4.06 ERA) makes his 7th start and 23rd appearance. He has a 1.47 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 through 51 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 6 K Wednesday against Cincinnati Reds
  • In his 7 starts: 3-2, 3.90 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 9.9 K/9

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Phillies at Cardinals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:37 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Cardinals +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+110) | Cardinals +1.5 (-135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Phillies at Cardinals picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Cardinals 2

Moneyline

The last 2 times Nola has faced the Cardinals, including a Wild Card postseason game last year he is 2-0 with 0 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 15 K over 13 2/3 IP.

The talk around St. Louis is how much they hope to sign Nola in the offseason, and Nola has done nothing to diminish the love affair. St. Louis is hot at the wrong time, but the PHILLIES (-145) feels like a bargain.

Run line/Against the spread

The Phils are just 64-82 on the RL this year and 34-38 on the road. I feel like their ML is at a good enough price to just run it there.

I do like AARON NOLA OVER 5.5 K’s (-110). He struck out 9 Cards a couple of weeks ago and 6 in the playoff game last year. He also has 6 K’s in 5 of his last 7 starts.

Over/Under

The Phils are 5-5 O/U over the last 10, and the Cards are 6-4. The Over is just 2-8 in the last 10 meetings between these teams. If this total were any lower, I’d stay away, but I like this game to stay under 9

Take the UNDER 8.5 (-105).

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NL Wild Card Series Game 2: Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals Game 2 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals play Game 2 of their NL Wild Card Series Friday at Busch Stadium. First pitch is slated for 8:37 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Series: Phillies lead 1-0 after a come-from-behind 6-3 win Friday.

Phillies ace Zack Wheeler was fantastic in his first playoff start. He allowed 2 hits and struck out 4 over 6 1/3 scoreless IP. The bullpen gave up 3 runs after he exited, which will be something to watch Saturday.

The Phils entered the 9th inning down 2-0 Friday, and they plated 6 runs. Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley, who finished the 8th inning, lost feeling in his injured finger in the 9th. He allowed a hit, 2 walks and then hit a batter to force in a run. It was all downhill from there for STL.

St. Louis only had 2 hits from starters hitting 1-8 Friday. That will have to change if they hope to avoid being swept. Philadelphia has another great hurler throwing today – so strap in!

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Phillies at Cardinals projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Miles Mikolas

Nola (11-13, 3.25 ERA) logged a 0.96 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 through 205 IP across 32 starts in the regular season.

  • Logged a 2.60 ERA, 0.90 WHIP over his last 5 starts of the regular season
  • Posted a 3.00 ERA on the road
  • Has held current Cardinals batters to a whiff-heavy .672 OPS

Mikolas (12-13, 3.29 ERA) has also made 32 starts. He has registered a 1.03 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 through 202 1/3 IP.

  • Notched a 1.20 ERA, 0.87 WHIP in his last 3 regular-season starts
  • Notched a 2.38 ERA, 0.83 WHIP at home

Phillies at Cardinals odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:50 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Cardinals +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+140) | Cardinals +1.5 (-180)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Phillies at Cardinals picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Cardinals 3

Moneyline

The Phillies come out of the more competitive NL East and are the likable side for the series overall from a team standpoint.

Nola gives the Phils a great chance to close out this set Saturday. His stuff is for real, and he’s missing a ton of bats of late.

Mikolas has perhaps been a bit lucky in some high-leverage situations, and that has kept his ERA artificially a little low. For example, with runners in scoring position, the Redbirds righty has held foes to a .235 batting average. But built into that is a .223 average on balls in play. He has had an easy schedule down the stretch. Saturday’s turn could serve as a rude wake-up call.

TAKE PHILADELPHIA (-125).

Run line/Against the spread

With the low total and the Cards getting last licks, PASS on the more-juice-infused RL action. Philadelphia -1.5 +150 or more would change the calculus and make the Phils worth a partial-unit look. If you’re looking for a secondary wager and are on board with the Phils, the PHILLIES OVER 3.5 TOTAL RUNS (+105) has a decent return.

Over/Under

There are no strong enough indicators or separators between real and expected production/prevention numbers to initiate action. PASS.

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NL Wild Card Series Game 1: Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals Game 1 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals play Game 1 of an NL Wild Card Series Friday at Busch Stadium. First pitch is slated for 2:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Phillies won 4-3

Philadelphia got a little leaky down the stretch after playing .642 baseball in June, July and August (52-29). The Phillies struggled the week heading into Labor Day, and they went just 7-13 over their last 20 games of the season. The Phils finished 7th in runs per game (4.61) and 15th in runs allowed per game (4.23).

The Cardinals rode a solid-but-slightly-underperforming start to the season and a monster August to an eventual 93-win campaign. The Redbirds went 22-7 in August and were 17-14 between Sept. 1 and the end of the season.

St. Louis has the better pitching and defense: its 3.93 runs allowed per game ranked 9th in the regular season, but its sneaky-good offense (4.77 RPG, 5th MLB) has struggled of late. The Cardinals own a .642 OPS over their last 16 games.

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Phillies at Cardinals projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. LHP Jose Quintana

Wheeler (12-7, 2.82 ERA) posted a 1.04 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 153 IP across 26 regular-season starts.

  • Did not allow an earned run in 14 IP over 2 starts against St. Louis
  • Spent some time in August and September on the IL with a forearm injury and has made just 3 starts since Aug. 20
  • Clocked a 3.84 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on the road

Quintana (6-7, 2.93 ERA) notched a 1.21 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 165 2/3 IP and 32 starts.

  • Acquired at the trade deadline and has made 12 starts for the Cardinals
  • Logged a 2.01 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 48:16 K:BB across 62 2/3 IP over those 12 turns
  • Has not yielded a home run over 11 starts since Aug. 4

Phillies at Cardinals odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Phillies -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Cardinals -108 (bet $108 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+150) | Cardinals +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Phillies at Cardinals picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Cardinals 3

Moneyline

Jose Quintana has certainly been on a roll, but there is some leverage to be found by digging deeper into his numbers. Quintana has faced a weak strength-of-schedule over the last couple of months, and his greatness in avoiding home runs is also likely some luckiness in avoiding home runs.

He’s allowed round-trippers on just 5.3% of fly balls across the entire season. For comparison, his mound foe Friday has perhaps also been a tad fortunate, and he exhibits a 9.8% rate.

Now bring the Phillies’ platoon numbers into this matchup. Philadelphia owns a .769 OPS against lefties and a .727 OPS against righties. Current Phillies batters have banged out a solid .758 OPS against Quintana in his career.

Looking at 1-run games and the strength of division opponents, the visitors come up with even more value here.

TAKE PHILADELPHIA (-112).

Run line/Against the spread

With the low total and the Cards getting last licks, STEER CLEAR of the more-juice-infused RL action.

Over/Under

There are no strong enough indicators or separators between real and expected production/prevention numbers to initiate action against a 25-cent proposition. PASS.

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Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (46-40) and the St. Louis Cardinals (46-42) wrap up a 4-game wraparound set Monday at Busch Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Phillies lead series 4-2

The Phillies won the first 2 games of this series with shutouts, posting a 2-0 win Friday, and a 1-0 win behind RHP Kyle Gibson Saturday. The Under has hit in 5 straight for Philadelphia.

The Cardinals exacted a little revenge with a 4-3 win on Sunday afternoon. The Under has cashed in 8 in a row, and 11 of the past 12 for the Cards.

Phillies vs. Cardinals projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Miles Mikolas

Nola (5-6, 3.15 ERA) makes his 18th start of the season. He has a 0.93 WHIP, 1.2 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 111 1/3 IP.

  • Is just 2-4 in 8 starts over 55 IP, but he has a sparkling 2.13 ERA with 61 K.
  • Lost last time out in a quality start, allowing 3 ER, 7 H and 1 BB across 7 2/3 IP against the Washington Nationals Wednesday.

Mikolas (5-7, 2.72 ERA) makes his 18th start of the season. He has a 0.99 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 through 106 IP.

  • Is 2-2 with a 2.60 ERA and .191 opponent batting average in 52 IP across 8 home starts.
  • Allowed 4 R (2 ER) with 6 H and 2 BB across 5 1/3 IP in a loss at Philadelphia on July 1.

Phillies vs. Cardinals odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:35 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Cardinals -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+155) | Cardinals +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Phillies vs. Cardinals picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 3, Phillies 2

Money line

The CARDINALS (-105) are a decent play as short ‘dogs at home in what should be a well-pitched affair. The Phillies (-115) are a solid 4-1 in the past 5 road outings, while going 14-5 in the past 19 against teams with a winning record.

While the Cardinals have struggled, especially to score runs lately, they’ll do a decent job behind Mikolas at home.

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Run line/Against the spread

The Cardinals +1.5 (-190) will cost you nearly two times your potential return if you’d like a little insurance and do not trust them straight up. It’s not a recommended play, however.

PASS.

Over/Under

The UNDER 7.5 (-107) is the way to be.

The Under has cashed in 5 in a row for Philadelphia, while going 5-0 in the past 5 vs. RHP, too.

For St. Louis, the Under is 8-0 in the past 8 against winning teams while going 11-1 in the past 12 against teams with a winning overall record. The Under is 7-0 in the past 7 vs. RHP, too.

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Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (45-42) host the Philadelphia Phillies (46-39) Sunday at Busch Stadium in their 4-game series finale with the 1st pitch set for 2:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Philly is 2-0 vs. St. Louis this season with a plus-3 run differential (3-0) in those 2 games. The Phillies are leading the season series with the Cardinals 4-1 with a plus-8 run differential (18-10). St. Louis has won just 2 of its last 10 games, and Philly is 7-3 overall in the last 10 games.

Phillies at Cardinals projected starters

RHP Nick Nelson vs. RHP Andre Pallante 

Nelson is 3-1 with a 4.17 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 41 IP over 22 relief appearances.

  • He is serving as an opener for St. Louis’s “bullpen” day.
  • This will be Nelson’s 3rd career start and he is 0-1 with a 16.20 ERA (1 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 2 H, 5 BB and 3 K in his 1st two starts.

Pallante is 2-4 with a 3.03 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 in 59 1/3 IP across 6 starts and 18 relief appearances.

  • Last start: Loss 7-1 Tuesday at the Atlanta Braves with 3 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 10 H, 2 HR, 0 BB and 5 K.
  • 2022 home splits: 2-2 with a 2.57 ERA (35 IP, 10 ER), 1.34 WHIP, 3 HR and 4.9 K/9 in 3 starts and 10 bullpen outings.

Phillies at Cardinals odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Cardinals -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+155) | Cardinals +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -130 | U: -105)

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Phillies at Cardinals picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 5, Phillies 3

Money line

LEAN CARDINALS (-120) because they’re 18-11 as home favorites and have been steamed from a -110 opening favorite up to the current number according to Pregame.com, despite their recent struggles and Philly’s hot streak.

Also, I’m not sure Philly’s “bullpen day” is a good idea considering it’s ranked 21st in xFIP and 24th in K/BB rate, per FanGraphs.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I’m not confident enough in the Cardinals -1.5 (+160) to “sprinkle” on their RL, and the Under is my favorite look in this game.

Over/Under

BET a half-unit on the UNDER 8.5 (-105).

There is a “Pros vs. Joe’s” situation in the betting market for the total. Nearly 70% of the bets placed are on the Over 8.5 (-130), but a slight majority of the cash is on the Under per Pregame.com. Since professional bettors put up a lot more dough than your average Joe, it’s wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public.

Also, Philly is 0-4 O/U in their last 4 games, St. Louis is 0-7 O/U in their last 7 vs. teams with a winning record.  Phillies-Cardinals is 2-8 O/U in their last 10 meetings, including 1-4 O/U this season.

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Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (45-40) host the Philadelphia Phillies (44-39) Friday at Busch Stadium in the opener of a 3-game series with the 1st pitch set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Philly is 6-4 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games including consecutive series victories vs. the Washinton Nationals and Cardinals.

St. Louis is 4-6 SU in the last 10 and hasn’t won a series since taking 2 of 3 at home vs. the Miami Marlins June 27-29.

The Phillies beat the Cardinals 2-1 in their 1st series this season and Philly outscored St. Louis 15-10 in that set.

Phillies at Cardinals projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Adam Wainwright 

Wheeler is 7-4 with a 2.66 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 88 IP over 15 starts.

  • Last start: Won 4-0 Sunday at home vs. the Cardinals with 7 scoreless IP, 5 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
  • 2022 road splits: 2-2 with a 4.45 ERA (32 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.45 WHIP, 2 HR and 10.6 K/9 in 6 starts.

Wainwright is 6-6 with a 3.26 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 96 2/3 IP over 16 starts.

  • Last start: Lost 4-0 Sunday in Philadelphia with 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 5 K.
  • 2022 home splits: 3-2 with a 2.25 ERA (44 IP, 11 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 2 HR and 8.8 K/9 in 7 starts.

Phillies at Cardinals odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:21 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Cardinals +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+135) | Cardinals +1.5 (-170)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Phillies at Cardinals picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Cardinals 2

Money line

BET the PHILLIES (-125) because the sharps are staking Philly while the public is backing the Cardinals (+102), Wheeler has been dominant recently and Philly’s lineup is a little more productive vs. right-handed pitching than St. Louis’s.

Nearly two-thirds of the cash is on the Phillies whereas a slight majority of the bets placed are on the Cardinals according to Pregame.com. Typically, it’s wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public since professional bettors have much bigger units than your average Joe.

Wheeler grades higher than Wainwright in most advanced pitching metrics. Wainwright sits in the 30th percentile for expected ERA, 4th percentile for whiff rate and 43rd percentile in barrel rate, per Statcast. Also, Wheeler is 4-1 SU in his last 7 outings with a 1.90 ERA and 6 quality starts.

Finally, Philly’s lineup outranks St. Louis’s vs. right-handed pitching in several advanced hitting categories such as hard-hit rate (28.4-27.4%), wOBA (.316-.313) and ISO (.171-.149), according to FanGraphs.

BET to win 1 unit on the PHILLIES (-125).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Philly’s edges over St. Louis are minimal and Phillies-Cardinals has a low total so if there are fewer runs expected to be scored then it’s harder to sprinkle on the favorite’s RL.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-105) since both ballclubs have their ace on the mound, Phillies-Cardinals is 2-6 O/U in their last 8 meetings, Philly is 7-5 O/U as road favorites, St. Louis is 22-16-2 O/U at home and more cash is on the Under whereas more action is on the Over 7.5 (-120), per Pregame.com.

However, Philly’s ML is my favorite look in this game hence the LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (-105) without a lot of conviction.

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Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (11-12) play the third game of a four-game set on the road against the St. Louis Cardinals (12-11) at Busch Stadium Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Phillies RHP Vince Velasquez (0-0, 6.75) will make his second start of the season to go with 3 relief appearances. He has tossed a total of 8 innings with 8 hits and 9 walks allowed but with 13 strikeouts.

  • Allowing a 91.7 mph exit velocity with a .909 OPS in his limited action, including a 2 1/3 inning relief appearance against the Cards April 17.
  • Made his first start of 2021 at the Colorado Rockies Friday and held them to 2 earned runs over 4 innings with a no-decision in the Phillies’ 5-4 loss.

Cardinals RHP Johan Oviedo (0-0, 0.00 ERA) worked 4 2/3 scoreless innings of long relief in the Cards’ 9-3 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers April 11. He allowed 2 hits and 2 walks with 4 strikeouts.

  • Made 5 starts in 2020 with a 5.47 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 while being charged with an 0-3 record.
  • Has allowed a 91.3 mph exit velocity and 51.1% hard-hit rate in his 29 1/3 innings of MLB work over the last two seasons.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Phillies at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:28 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Cardinals -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+140) | Cardinals +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Phillies 5, Cardinals 4

Money line (ML)

With neither swingman expected to go too deep into Wednesday’s start, we’ll make a contrarian play on the bullpen of the PHILLIES (-110).

While Philly’s relief corps ranks 29th in baseball with a 5.14 ERA, it’s 11th with a 3.96 xFIP and St. Louis is last with a 4.91 aggregate bullpen xFIP. The Phillies bullpen has been hurt by a .303 BABIP and 18.9% home run to fly-ball rate.

Trust in the progression toward the mean for the visitors with Oviedo inspiring little confidence in the home side.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Liking the Phillies to win outright in a close game, we can back the CARDINALS +1.5 (-165) for 1 run of insurance in the event of a loss. It’ll partially serve as a hedge against picking Philadelphia to win outright.

Over/Under (O/U)

Lean to the OVER 8.5 (-115) as a fade of both converted starters.

Both teams received at least 6 innings from each of their first two starters in this series, so the bullpens are well-rested, but neither unit is overly impressive at its best.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (11-11) host the Philadelphia Phillies (11-11) in Game 2 of their four-game series at Busch Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Philadelphia won Game 1 of this series 2-1 thanks to a gem thrown by RHP Zack Wheeler. He surrendered just 1 hit and 1 earned run with 3 walks and 9 strikeouts.

Season series: Phillies lead 3-1.

RHP Zach Eflin gets his fifth start of the season for the Phillies Tuesday. He is 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA (26 IP, 8 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 0.7 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 this season.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 6 IP with 1 ER, 7 H, 0 BB and 3 K in Philadelphia’s 6-5 win over the San Francisco Giants Wednesday.
  • Career vs. the Cardinals: 1-0 with a 3.09 ERA (11 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 1.03 WHIP and 7.7 K/9 across 2 starts.

RHP Carlos Martinez gets the start for the Cardinals. Martinez is 0-4 with a 6.00 ERA (21 IP, 14 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 5.6 K/9 through 4 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss in 6 IP with 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 3 K in St. Louis’ 1-0 loss at the Washington Nationals.
  • Career vs. the Phillies: 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA (35 IP, 15 ER), 1.03 WHIP and 7.7 K/9 over 5 starts and 4 relief appearances.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Phillies at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at noon ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Cardinals -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+145) | Cardinals +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -118 | U: -105)

Prediction

Cardinals 6, Phillies 4

Money line (ML)

For me, this is a “trap spot” for the Phillies who definitely have an edge in the starting pitching matchup and, in fact, these two pitchers met April 16 in a game Philadelphia won 9-2.

Martinez leads MLB in losses and Eflin has a sub-3.00 ERA with the third-best walk rate of all starters with a minimum of 20 innings pitched.

However, the market has steamed St. Louis’ money line up to -110 after this game opened with the Cardinals as slight home underdogs (-105). The reason is the expectation of Eflin’s regression back to the mean.

He has been lights out in high leverage situations with opposing hitters slashing .083/.154/.167 with just one hit and a .100 BABIP through 14 plate appearances.

Eflin had a quality start in allowing just 2 earned runs across 7 innings in his first start against the Cardinals, but he had a slightly flukey 87% left on-base percentage and St. Louis hitters had a 55% hard-hit rate.

BET CARDINALS (-110) for 1 unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Cardinals +1.5 (-175) are too expensive and I’m not confident enough in St. Louis with Martinez on the rubber to take a shot at the alternate run line.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-118) for a quarter unit since the weather forecast predicts nearly 15 mph winds out to left-center and if the Cardinals can chase Eflin early they’ll get to face a Phillies bullpen with the second-worst ERA in MLB.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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