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The Philadelphia Phillies (79-67) and St. Louis Cardinals (65-81) open up a 3-game set at Busch Stadium Friday. First pitch is at 8:15 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Phillies lead 3-0
The Phillies limp into Gateway City after dropping 5 of 7 games to the Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins at home. They are now 10-10 and 15-15 over the last 20 and 30 games, respectively. Philadelphia has a 1 1/2-game lead over the Chicago Cubs for the top NL Wild Card spot.
The Cardinals took 2 of 3 games from the Baltimore Orioles to start the week. They are 7-3 over the last 10 games but still remain 10 games out of an NL Wild Card spot with 16 games to go. St. Louis was dominated by today’s starter — RHP Aaron Nola — in a 3-0 loss Aug. 27.
Phillies at Cardinals projected starters
RHP Aaron Nola vs. LHP Zack Thompson
Nola (12-9, 4.64 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 176 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 6 K Wednesday against the Miami Marlins
- Last 5 regular season starts vs. Cardinals: 3-1, 2.25 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, 41 K in 36 IP
Thompson (5-5, 4.06 ERA) makes his 7th start and 23rd appearance. He has a 1.47 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 through 51 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 6 K Wednesday against Cincinnati Reds
- In his 7 starts: 3-2, 3.90 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 9.9 K/9
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Phillies at Cardinals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:37 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Cardinals +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+110) | Cardinals +1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Phillies at Cardinals picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 5, Cardinals 2
Moneyline
The last 2 times Nola has faced the Cardinals, including a Wild Card postseason game last year he is 2-0 with 0 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 15 K over 13 2/3 IP.
The talk around St. Louis is how much they hope to sign Nola in the offseason, and Nola has done nothing to diminish the love affair. St. Louis is hot at the wrong time, but the PHILLIES (-145) feels like a bargain.
Run line/Against the spread
The Phils are just 64-82 on the RL this year and 34-38 on the road. I feel like their ML is at a good enough price to just run it there.
I do like AARON NOLA OVER 5.5 K’s (-110). He struck out 9 Cards a couple of weeks ago and 6 in the playoff game last year. He also has 6 K’s in 5 of his last 7 starts.
Over/Under
The Phils are 5-5 O/U over the last 10, and the Cards are 6-4. The Over is just 2-8 in the last 10 meetings between these teams. If this total were any lower, I’d stay away, but I like this game to stay under 9
Take the UNDER 8.5 (-105).
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