Tag: Phillies Brewers odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (74-61) and the Milwaukee Brewers (76-59) wrap up a 3-game series Sunday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET (Peacock). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies at Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Brewers lead 4-1

The Phillies were on the short end of a 7-5 score against the Brewers for the 2nd consecutive evening. Philadelphia has now dropped 3 straight games by exactly 2 runs apiece. The Over (9.5) connected Saturday, and is now on a 5-0 run for the Phils.

After a power outage in Chicago earlier in the week, as Milwaukee managed just 2 total runs in the final 2 games, the Brew Crew has managed 14 total runs in the first 2 games of this series. The Over is 2-0 in the series after the Under was 3-0 in the previous series.

Phillies at Brewers projected starters

LHP Ranger Suarez vs. LHP Wade Miley

Suarez (2-6, 3.88 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 97 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 8 K in a 3-0 home loss vs. the Minnesota Twins
  • 2023 road splits: 2-3, 2.76 ERA (49 IP, 15 ER), 2 HR, 1.41 WHIP, .290 opponent batting average (OBA) in 8 starts

Miley (7-3, 3.17 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 in 93 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 1 K in a 6-2 road win vs. the Chicago Cubs Monday
  • 2023 home splits: 4-1, 3.31 ERA (49 IP, 18 ER), 7 HR, 1.18 WHIP, .242 OBA in 9 starts

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Phillies at Brewers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:37 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Brewers -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+140) | Brewers +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Phillies at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 4, Phillies 3

Moneyline

The BREWERS (-105) are a solid play as short ‘dogs at home in the series finale. Milwaukee has won 8 consecutive games at home since Aug. 8, while going 12-3 in the past 15 outings at American Family Field.

The Phillies (-115) have dropped 3 games in a row, and the pitching has been the biggest culprit. Philadelphia pitching has coughed up 7 or more runs (7.8 RPG) across the last 4 outings.

Run line/Against the spread

The BREWERS +1.5 (-165) aren’t priced out of line if you’d like a little insurance, and you have a sneaking suspicion the Phillies -1.5 (+140) will be able to salvage the series finale after getting outscored 14-10 in the first 2 games.

Milwaukee has covered 10 straight as an underdog on the run line since Aug. 17, including 8 outright wins.

Over/Under

UNDER 9 (-110) is a decent play in this southpaw battle between Suarez and Miley.

While on the surface, it doesn’t look like a great pitching matchup, the stats say otherwise. Miley has a solid 3.31 ERA at home across 49 IP in 9 starts, while Suarez has a stellar 2.76 ERA in 49 IP across 8 road outings away from the bandbox that is Citizens Bank Park.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (74-60) and the Milwaukee Brewers (75-59) play the middle contest of a 3-game series Saturday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies at Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Brewers lead 3-1

The Phillies were on the short end of a 7-5 score in the series opener. Philadelphia is still 5-2 in the previous 7 games overall, and the offense has produced 5 or more points in 4 straight games and 7 of the previous 8 outings. The Over has cashed in each of the past 4 games overall.

The Brewers offense snapped out of its funk, after getting outscored 4-2 in the final 2 games of the series at Wrigley Field against the Chicago Cubs earlier this week. Since Aug. 18, despite the mini skid at Wrigley, Milwaukee’s offense has managed 5 or more runs in 10 of the past 12 games, cashing the Over at a 6-2 clip in the past 8 outings.

Phillies at Brewers projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Colin Rea

Nola (12-8, 4.30 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 167 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB and 9 K in a 3-0 home win vs. the St. Louis Cardinals Sunday
  • 2023 road splits: 6-5, 5.26 ERA (90 2/3 IP, 53 ER), 19 HR, 1.25 WHIP, .251 opponent batting average (OBA) in 15 starts
  • 2023 vs. Milwaukee: Win, 7 1/3 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 4 H, 0 BB, 6 K at Citizens Bank Park July 18

Rea (5-5, 5.11 ERA) makes his 20th start and 21st overall appearance. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 100 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 2 K in a 8-4 home loss vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates Aug. 4
  • 2023 home splits: 2-3, 5.68 ERA (50 2/3 IP, 32 ER), 12 HR, 1.44 WHIP, .278 OBA in 10 starts and 1 relief appearance
  • 2023 vs. Philadelphia: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 5 H, 0 BB, 3 K at Citizen Bank Park July 19

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Phillies at Brewers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:50 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Brewers +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+120) | Brewers +1.5 (-145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Phillies at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Brewers 3

Moneyline

The PHILLIES (-140) are worth backing in Game 2 of this series, especially since Rea has really struggled for the Brewers (+115) this season. Perhaps the Milwaukee righty comes back with a vengeance after being banished to the minors, but it’s unlikely. Back Nola and the visitors, especially since the Philadelphia right-hander has a win against Milwaukee against this season.

Run line/Against the spread

The PHILLIES -1.5 (+120) are a solid value on the run line, too. While Philadelphia has dropped the past 2 games outright as a favorite, the Phils are 5-2 on the run line in the past 7 outings overall when favored.

The Brewers +1.5 (-145) have dropped 3 of the past 5 starts by Rea. While Milwaukee has actually covered the run line as an underdog in 9 straight, with 7 outright wins, it’s a risky play at home with the struggling righty on the bump.

Over/Under

Over/Under 9 is risky business, as I think the total actually comes right down on the number for an unsatisfying push.

If I were forced to have a lean, I’d go Over, mainly because of Rea’s struggles which got him banished to the minors for a month.

However, AVOID is the best course of action.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Milwaukee Brewers (74-59) welcome the Philadelphia Phillies (74-59) to American Family Field Friday to open a 3-game set. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Brewers lead 2-1

The Phillies are 5-1 over their last 6 games, losing 10-8 to the Los Angeles Angels Wednesday as they failed to complete the 3-game sweep. Philadelphia is 33-33 on the road this season and is 14 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East, but it holds the top NL Wild Card spot.

The Brewers have cooled off over their last 2 games but have been on fire over the last few weeks. Milwaukee is 9-2 over its last 11 contests but did lose 2 of 3 to the Chicago Cubs from Monday to Wednesday, including a 3-2 defeat in the finale. Milwaukee is 38-27 at home this season and has a 3-game lead atop the NL Central.

Phillies at Brewers projected starters

RHP Zach Wheeler vs. RHP Freddy Peralta

Wheeler (10-6, 3.59 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 through 158 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 10 K in 12-1 home win vs. St. Louis Cardinals Saturday
  • 2023 away stats: 6-4, 3.40 ERA in 84 2/3 IP in 14 starts

Peralta (11-8, 3.95 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 through 139 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 9 K in 5-4 home win vs. San Diego Padres Saturday
  • 2023 home stats: 6-4, 3.76 ERA in 76 2/3 IP in 14 starts

Phillies at Brewers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:30 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Brewers -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+145) | Brewers +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Phillies at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 4, Phillies 2

Moneyline

BET BREWERS (-105).

Milwaukee is the 7th-best team in the MLB at home, posting a 38-27 record at American Family Field. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is just .500 on the road. Both teams will have an ace on the mound, so there’s not a major pitching advantage for either.

The Brewers are 9-10 as home underdogs which ranks 12th-best in the league and is 9-2 over their last 11 games. Wheeler has given up 3 or more earned runs in 2 of his last 4 starts and could struggle against a high-octane Brewers offense.

Milwaukee at home for this value is worth a play.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

There’s not a ton of value here. The Phillies with Wheeler on the mound are a strong side, but backing them to beat the Brewers by multiple runs doesn’t pose a smart risk.

Similarly, the Brewers +1.5 (-175) is also is not a wise play, there’s just not enough value.

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Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-105).

Aces are on the mound and should put on a show. Wheeler has given up 1 or 2 earned runs in 6 or more innings pitched in 5 of his last 7 starts. Philadelphia is 58-64-11 O/U this season and has gone Under in 2 of Wheeler’s last 3 starts.

Milwaukee is 59-69-5 O/U, so both teams have been better at hitting the Under this season. The Brewers have gone Under in 3 straight games. Take UNDER 7.5 (-105).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (27-29) and Milwaukee Brewers (33-25) meet Thursday to wrap up a 3-game series at American Family Field. The contest is slated to start at 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Philadelphia leads 3-2.

The Phillies have won 6 consecutive games. Philadelphia landed a 10-0 win Wednesday and has scored 6 runs or more in 5 of the 6 wins. Philly is 9-7 with a robust .801 OPS over its last 16 road games.

The Brewers have lost 5 games in a row and 7 of their last 8. The Milwaukee offense has batted .209/.281/.341 (.622 OPS) since May 22.

Phillies at Brewers projected starters

RHP Zach Eflin vs. RHP Corbin Burnes

Eflin (2-4, 3.88 ERA) is tabbed for his 10th start of the season. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 51 IP.

  • Pitched 8 scoreless innings in his last start vs. the Los Angeles Angels Friday, and that was a fine bounce-back after coughing up 7 runs over 6 innings at the New York Mets May 28.
  • Owns a 1.16 ERA at home vs. an 8.10 ERA on the road, and that’s nothing new. Since 2020, has logged a 2.53 ERA in home games and a 5.89 figure on the road.

Burnes (3-3, 2.50 ERA) owns a 0.92 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 through 68 1/3 IP in 11 starts.

  • Allowed 5R in 3 2/3 IP in his last start Friday vs. the San Diego Padres. He had given the Brewers 6-plus IP in 9 straight starts prior to that turn.

Phillies at Brewers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 9:16 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Brewers -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL): Phillies +1.5 (-155) | Brewers -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Phillies at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Brewers 3

Money line

Records in 1-run games (Phillies 5-10, Brewers 13-7) and some other big-picture factors bring some systemic lean to the Philly side. That’s made for a couple of betting wins in this series. However, the lean here is checked somewhat by Eflin’s road performances and more so by price.

There is some value on the PHILLIES (+140) but it’s a PASS if the price tag decreases.

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Run line/Against the spread

Taking the run-and-a-half insurance due to Eflin’s road clunkers is an enticing idea, but the layout is too much. PASS.

Over/Under

Both bullpens are in good shape. Eflin’s results against teams not named the New York Mets have been impressive. The tag here is an outlier in the marketplace. BACK THE UNDER 7.5 (-125).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (26-29) and Milwaukee Brewers (33-24) meet Wednesday for the middle game of a 3-game series at American Family Field. The contest is slated to start at 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied 2-2 after Philadelphia won the series opener 3-2 Tuesday.

The Phillies have won 5 consecutive games. Tuesday’s contest represented a rare victory in a 1-run game: the Phils are now just 5-10 across 15 such games.

The Brewers have lost 4 in a row and 6 of their last 7 contests. The Milwaukee offense has batted .212/.287/.351 (.638 OPS) since May 22.

Phillies at Brewers projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Adrian Houser

Nola (3-4, 3.92 ERA) makes his 12th start of the season. He has a 0.93 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 through 66 2/3 IP.

  • Bounced off a 109-pitch effort May 26 with a shaky start in his last (5 runs allowed in 5 IP to the San Francisco Giants last Wednesday). Has now been off-kilter in 3 straight starts after 100-pitch games.
  • Threw 7 scoreless innings vs. Milwaukee April 24.
  • Tough on lefty batters (.167 batting average against) which is a key against a Brewer nine that offers up more lefty at bats vs. right-handed pitchers than the MLB average.

Houser (3-5, 3.51 ERA) is tabbed for his 11th start of the year. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 through 51 1/3 IP.

  • Has clocked a 1.95 ERA at home.
  • Faced Philadelphia April 23 and allowed 3 R on 5 H and 1 BB in 6 IP.

Phillies at Brewers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 9:11 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Brewers +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Run line (RL): Phillies -1.5 (+125) | Brewers +1.5 (-155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Phillies at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Brewers 4

Money line

Home run rates on fly balls color these starters as different betting plays: a bet-on for the Nola side and a bet-against on the Houser side. Add in some good mojo for a Philadelphia nine under new manager Rob Thomson and its bullpen being in better shape for this contest.

TAKE PHILADELPHIA (-135).

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Run line/Against the spread

The PHILLIES -1.5 (+125) is a solid tag for bettors willing to risk a 1-run win.

Over/Under

Philadelphia owns an MLB-best .761 OPS on the road and has scored 4 or more runs in 7 of its last 8 games. Wednesday sets up as a possible rest day for both closers. BACK THE OVER 8.5 (+100).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (71-67) and Milwaukee Brewers (85-55) play the finale of a three-game series Wednesday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Phillies RHP Kyle Gibson (10-6, 3.30 ERA) makes his 26th start and 27th appearance. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 7.0 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 through 155 1/3 IP.

  • Roughed up for eight runs, eight hits and two walks with four strikeouts across 5 1/3 IP in a loss at Miami Friday.
  • Is 4-3 with a 4.46 ERA and three home runs allowed across 42 1/3 IP in seven starts since being acquired from the Texas Rangers.

Brewers RHP Freddy Peralta (9-4, 2.70 ERA) makes his 24th start and 25th appearance. He has a 0.96 WHIP, 12.3 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 through 123 1/3 IP.

  • Coughed up four runs, three hits and two walks with four strikeouts in just two innings in a loss against the St. Louis Cardinals Friday in his return after missing time due to shoulder inflammation.
  • Faced the Phillies on the road May 5, allowing five runs, four hits and three walks with eight strikeouts in just four innings in a loss May 5, his only appearance this season vs. PHI.

Phillies at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:45 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Brewers -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-155) | Brewers -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Prediction

Brewers 5, Phillies 2

Money line (ML)

The BREWERS (-170) are looking to build off their 10-0 victory Tuesday. They rebounded nicely after a 12-0 loss to the Phillies (+135) in the series opener.

Milwaukee is the play behind Peralta, who has been lights out this season. He has been especially strong at home, posting a 2.47 ERA with a .131 opponent batting average in 69 1/3 IP across 12 starts and 13 appearances at home.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BREWERS -1.5 (+125) easily covered the run line in Tuesday’s romp, and they’re the play again with one of their best pitchers on the bump. While Peralta could be on a strict pitch count, as he makes just his second start since returning from shoulder inflammation, the Milwaukee bullpen has a solid 3.91 ERA, so that shouldn’t be a big concern.

Over/Under (O/U)

The lean is to the UNDER 7.5 (-105) after a couple of Over results in the first two in this series. It’s odd, too, as we had two Over results with a pair of shutouts. With Gibson and Peralta starting, expect a much more even and well pitched game.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (71-66) and Milwaukee Brewers (84-55) play the second game of a three-game series Tuesday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Phillies RHP Aaron Nola (7-7, 4.54 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 11.0 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 through 152 2/3 IP.

  • Pounded for six earned runs, six hits and two walks in just four innings in a no-decision at Washington Thursday.
  • Allowed just one run, five hits and two walks with 10 strikeouts May 4 in a win in his only previous appearance vs. MIL this season.

Brewers LHP Eric Lauer (4-5, 3.43 ERA) makes his 16th start and 20th appearance. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 through 89 1/3 IP.

  • Yielded just one run, three hits and a walk with four strikeouts across seven innings in a no-decision in San Francisco Thursday.
  • Coughed up six runs – two earned – and eight hits with seven strikeouts across six innings in a loss at Philadelphia May 4 opposite Nola.

Phillies at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Brewers -108 (bet $108 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+145) | Brewers +1.5 (-180)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Phillies 6, Brewers 4

Money line (ML)

The PHILLIES (-112) are the slight road favorites, and they’re worth playing because of the pitching matchup.

Philadelphia has won each of Nola’s past two starts, and he handled himself well in his first meeting with Milwaukee.

Oh, and the Phillies are 5-1 in their past six trips to Cream City, and they have won five straight meetings overall with the Brewers.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PHILLIES -1.5 (+145) is worth a small-unit play behind Nola and because of their dominance against the Brewers +1.5 (-180) recently.

Philadelphia won and covered 12-0 in the series opener, its largest margin of victory ever against Milwaukee. It might not be as lopsided, but Philly is still the play.

Over/Under (O/U)

Take the OVER 7.5 (-130) as this one should have plenty of offense. Nola and Lauer are good but not great. The left-hander is especially hittable. While we aren’t likely to see anybody hit double digits like Philly did in the opener, the total number of runs should be in the double digits before the dust settles.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (70-66) and Milwaukee Brewers (84-54) play the opener of a three-game series Monday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Phillies RHP Zack Wheeler (11-9, 3.01 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.02 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 through 182 2/3 IP.

  • Allowed 4 earned runs on 5 hits and 4 walks in 6 innings in a win Aug. 30 at the Washington Nationals.
  • Has given up 4 or more earned runs in four consecutive starts and 3 or more earned runs in eight of his previous 10 outings.

Brewers RHP Brandon Woodruff (9-7, 2.35 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 0.94 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 through 157 1/3 IP.

  • Allowed just 1 run on 5 hits and 3 walks with 8 strikeouts across 6 innings in a win at the San Francisco Giants Tuesday. Has won each of his last two starts.
  • Posted a 2-1 record and 2.77 ERA with 33 strikeouts across 26 IP in five August starts.

Phillies at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:52 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Brewers -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-190) | Brewers -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)

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Prediction

Brewers 4, Phillies 2

Money line (ML)

The BREWERS (-145) are the play with Woodruff on the hill as he looks for his third consecutive victory. While he has been impressive this season, he is especially great at home. Woodruff has a 4-1 record with a 2.08 ERA in 12 starts at Am-Fam Field.

While he lost May 6 in Philadelphia in his only appearance against the Phillies, he was sharp with 1 run and 2 hits allowed with 11 strikeouts over 6 2/3 IP. Back Woodruff and the Brew Crew.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BREWERS -1.5 (+155) is a strong play on the run line. The Brewers have won by 2 or more runs in 11 of their 12 victories since Aug. 17. They’re humming along right now, so if you like them to win straight up you should like them on the run line too.

Over/Under (O/U)

Take the UNDER 7.5 (-135) as Wheeler and Woodruff should be locked in a pitcher’s duel.

While the Over is 4-1 in the last five starts by Woodruff, it is mostly due to an overwhelming amount of run support or relief pitching issues.

The Under is 10-3-1 in the last 14 games for the Phillies against teams with a winning record and 6-2-1 in their last nine as an underdog.

The Under is 8-3-1 in Milwaukee’s last 12 games and 10-4-2 in its last 16 at home against teams with a winning mark.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (17-11) and Philadelphia Phillies (13-15) open a four-game Citizens Bank Park series Monday at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Adrian Houser is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers. Through 5 starts, Houser is 2-2 with a 3.65 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 24 2/3 IP. He’s a fastball and ground-ball pitcher; the Phillies have struggled against both.

RHP Vince Velasquez is the projected starter for the Phillies. He is 0-0 with a 6.57 ERA, 1.95 WHIP, 13.1 K/9 and 8.0 BB/9 in 12 1/3 IP over 2 starts and 3 relief stints. Velasquez has been undone by 4 home runs; he has allowed 2 in each of his last two starts. In just 22 plate appearances, current Milwaukee bats have 2 HR (and a 1.591 OPS) against him.

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Brewers at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:15 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+150) | Phillies +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Phillies 5, Brewers 4,

Money line (ML)

Milwaukee has played well on the road (9-3), and it was a road trip to San Diego and Chicago that jumpstarted a stretch that has seen the Brewers go 9-4 since April 19. It has mostly been Milwaukee pitching coming through over that time; the Brewers have averaged 3.6 runs per game since that same April date.

Over that same span, the Phillies have gone 5-8. They enter this series having lost three of their last four games. Pitching has been an issue of late: Philadelphia owns a 5.28 ERA since April 20.

But Milwaukee’s 4.0 RPG and 4.1 RPG allowed don’t match with a team seven games over .500. The Brewers have gone 5-2 in one-run games, and that has helped. They are much better against lefty pitching, and while they do have the better starter going, Philly likely has the better bullpen (despite some recent surface ERA inflation).

TAKE THE PHIILIES -115.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Phillies have tended to play in a lot of one-run tilts. They are 6-6 in such games. But the price here offers no value. PASS.

Over/Under (O/U)

Citizens is a hitter’s ballpark, and the Monday weather calls for a breeze out to left field. Still, the Philly bullpen is likely being overlooked on the Philadelphia-runs-allowed side of the ledger. An Over 8 (-110) tag would make for some value, but that line doesn’t seem likely. PASS, but keep an eye on the line.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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