Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves odds predictions pick betting line spread – Page 2

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies (25-27) and Atlanta Braves (31-21) play the finale of a 4-game set at Truist Field Sunday. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 2-1

The Phils squeaked out a 2-1 victory Saturday for a 2nd straight win after dropping the series opener Thursday. Philadelphia has been playing .500 ball all month, going 5-5, 10-10 and 15-15 over its last 10, 20 and 30 games, respectively. OF Bryce Harper has settled in after returning from Tommy John surgery, hitting .321 with 3 homers and 8 RBIs in 22 games.

The Braves are still sitting pretty atop the NL East with a 4.5-game lead over the Miami Marlins. 1B Matt Olson (14), OF Ronald Acuna (11), C Sean Murphy (11), DH Marcell Ozuna (11) and 2B Ozzie Albies (10) have all hit at least 10 home runs for Atlanta. The Braves have taken care of business in the division at 11-5 but are just 14-14 at home thus far.

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Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Dylan Covey vs. RHP Spencer Strider

Covey (0-0, 3.00 ERA) makes his 1st start and 3rd appearance. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 9 innings for the Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers.

Threw 5 IP in relief Tuesday, allowing 1 ER on 5 H and 1 BB with 6 K against the Arizona Diamondbacks
Throws a sinker, cutter, slider and changeup; throws the cutter 34% of the time to a .231 OBA

Strider (4-2, 2.97 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and an MLB-leading 15.1 K/9 in 57 2/3 innings.

Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 4 R (2 ER), 5 H, 3 BB, 11 K in an 8-1 loss vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers Tuesday
3 career starts vs. Phillies: 3-0, 1.45 ERA, 0.64 WHIP and 29 K in 18 2/3 IP

Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:18 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Phillies +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Braves -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (+105) | Braves -1.5 (-130)
Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 4

Moneyline

Strider is just blowing everyone away with 7 or more K’s in his last 7 starts and 10-plus K’s in 4 of those outings. He has been hittable, though, with a 4.23 ERA over his past 5 starts. He’s the same pitcher at home as he is on the road, and the Braves have a sizeable advantage on the mound Sunday. The Phils are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings with the Braves but just 6-13 in the last 19 in Atlanta.

No chance we’re taking the -250 ML here, but if you head to the First 5 Innings section, WILL BOTH TEAMS SCORE 1 OR MORE RUNS IN THE FIRST 5 INNINGS? YES (-165) is at a suitable price with the way Strider has been giving up runs.

Run line/Against the spread

The Braves are priced the way they should be with the steep advantage they have on the mound. However, they have just 2 wins by multiple runs in the last 10 games. If you’re feeling the Braves here, head to the Win/Total section. There’s a prop there for BRAVES AND OVER 6.5 TOTAL RUNS (-115) at a solid price if we can stay under 10 runs.

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Over/Under

It’s 72 degrees with a 9-mph breeze blowing out toward left-center. I think the 9 total is pretty spot on here. The Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings between these teams, and the totals in Strider’s 3 career starts vs. Philadelphia are 7, 14 and 9. So we’re already leaning toward the Over here, but I just don’t see the incentive to reach for 10 runs to avoid a push.

PASS.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies (24-27) and Atlanta Braves (31-20) clash in a Saturday afternoon affair at Truist Park at 4:10 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: tied 1-1

Philadelphia lost Thursday’s series opener 8-5 but bounced back with a 6-4 win Friday. The Game 2 victory marked just the 3rd road win for the Phillies since April 30.

Braves pitching owns a 3.70 ERA for the season (5th MLB). But a spate of walks and home runs has led to the club posting a 4.75 mark over its last 10 games.

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Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Charlie Morton

Wheeler (3-4, 4.11 ERA) makes his 11th start of the season. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 57 IP.

Current Atlanta batters own an aggregate .671 OPS against him
Facing a Braves club that has logged a .947 OPS against southpaws and a .729 figure against right-handers
Has gone 6+ innings in 5 of his last 6 starts

Morton (5-4, 3.61 ERA) is making his 10th start of the 2023 season. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 52 1/3 IP.

Coming off a rough start where he allowed 6 ER over 5 IP (had logged a 2.32 ERA over previous 5 starts)
Philadelphia batters against Morton: .721 OPS aggregate

Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.

Moneyline: Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Braves -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-178) | Braves -1.5 (+146)
Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -122)

Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 4

Moneyline

The Braves are 11-4 in 1-run games and may be overrated a bit overall.

Looking at the starting pitching matchup, Wheeler has been hurt by a low 65.8% left-on-base rate, and Morton has been aided by a high 78.4% figure. Those are clutch plate appearances somewhat unfairly coloring the surface numbers of each hurler — to Wheeler’s detriment and Morton’s benefit.

Both starters also head into this contest on regular rest. That’s a boon for Wheeler and the Phillies; the right-hander has strong career and recent-season splits on such rest. With his solid history against Braves bats, and with Atlanta having a more average offense against right-handers, Philly is a lean.

Wheeler did go 108 pitches in his last start, however, and there is a slight pull toward an Under in this match-up. And the Run Line has more attractive pricing relative to the risk.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

While it’s juicier than we’d prefer, take the PHILLIES +1.5 (-178) for some of the reasons mentioned above.

There is also a prop bet we’d consider.

Wheeler has struck out at least 7 Braves in his last 5 starts against them. He has 7+ K’s in 2 of his last 3 starts, and they’re offering us plus-money for it. Atlanta isn’t striking out as frequently as it did last year, but Atlanta is still in the top half in terms of whiff ease at 8.71/game.

Take ZACK WHEELER OVER 6.5 K’S (+108).

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Over/Under

The books have the total handicapped well today, and the risk isn’t worth the reward. So let’s get creative.

Head to the Line/Total Parlays section on FanDuel, and let’s go with PHILLIES +2.5/OVER 6.5 (-125). That gives you a smaller total to hit, and the Phils get a couple of runs of insurance. These teams have combined for 10 runs or more in their last 4 meetings with Philadelphia taking 3 of 4.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies (23-27) and Atlanta Braves (31-19) play the 2nd game of a 4-game NL East series Friday. The first pitch at Truist Park is slated for 7:20 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Atlanta leads 1-0

Philadelphia lost Thursday’s series opener 8-5 and heads into Friday’s game on a 5-game road losing skid. The Phillies are just 2-9 away from home since April 30.

The Braves won 11 of 19 games vs. the Phils last season. Atlanta has lost just 1 season series against Atlanta since 2018.

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Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Taijuan Walker vs. LHP Jared Shuster

Walker (3-2, 5.79 ERA) is tabbed for his 11th start this season. He owns a 1.44 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 through 46 2/3 IP.

Current Atlanta batters own an aggregate 1.010 OPS against him
Facing a Braves club that has logged a .947 OPS against southpaws and a .729 figure against right-handers
Gets a lot of ground balls but has been hurt by an 18.6% home run/fly ball rate

Shuster (1-2, 5.49 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 5.5 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 19 2/3 IP.

Facing a Philadelphia club that owns a whiff-laden .704 OPS vs. lefties (.757 OPS vs. righties)
The 24-year-old rookie went past 5 innings for the 1st time in his big league career last time out, logging 6 innings of 1-run ball vs. the Seattle Mariners Sunday

Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.

Moneyline: Phillies +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Braves -154 (bet $154 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-138) | Braves -1.5 (+115)
Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 4

Moneyline

The Braves — partly due to an 11-4 mark in 1-run games — may well be a couple of games or so too far out over their skis.

Philly is a lean, but look to the Run Line for better value.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

TAKE PHILADELPHIA +1.5 (-138).

The pricing here makes for some leverage, partially because Atlanta plays a lot of 1-run games.

The Phillies are averaging 4.30 runs per game (RPG), down from the 4.61 RPG they averaged a year ago. Philadelphia’s offense in recent losses has been overly impacted by poor numbers in clutch at-bats.

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Over/Under

This figure is predictably close to where the season averages — runs for and against — intersect. It is a fair number here: PASS.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies (23-26) and Atlanta Braves (30-19) swing into a 4-game NL East series Thursday. The first pitch at Truist Park is slated for 7:20 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Atlanta won 11 of 19 meetings in 2022

Philadelphia is looking to snap a 4-game road losing streak. The Phillies are just 2-8 away from home since April 30.

The Braves are continuing a homestand that has thus far seen them go 3-3. Atlanta has been better on the road this season, going 17-7. The club is just 13-12 at home.

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Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. LHP Dylan Dodd

Nola (4-3, 4.31 ERA) makes his 11th start. He owns a 1.07 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 62 2/3 innings.

Current Atlanta batters own an aggregate .796 OPS against him
Facing a Braves club that has logged a .939 OPS against southpaws and a .725 figure against right-handers

Dodd (2-1, 6.46 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has notched a 1.83 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 4.1 K/9 in 15 1/3 innings.

Being recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett for this start; last pitched in the majors on May 4
A 25-year-old rookie who has pitched a total of 33 2/3 innings at Triple-A

Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:56 a.m. ET.

Moneyline: Phillies -106 (bet $106 to win $100) | Braves -110 (bet $100 to win $110)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+140) | Braves +1.5 (-170)
Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: -102)

Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Braves 3

Moneyline

Atlanta — partly due to an 11-4 mark in 1-run games — figures as a couple of games or so too far out over their skis. With Dodd on the mound, the Braves are vulnerable.

Philly has not been great against southpaws, but the club’s .684 OPS against left pitching is weighed down by a .281 batting average on balls in play. Nola is a consistent sort giving solid value to the PHILLIES (-106) line.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS. The pricing here is not too competitive.

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Over/Under

Support numbers make for a somewhat bullish view of both bullpens. The price here is decent. Consider a partial-unit play on the UNDER 9 (-102).

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NLDS Game 2: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Game 2 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves meet Wednesday at 4:35 p.m. ET (FOX) at Truist Park in Game 2 in the best-of-5 NL Division Series. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Series: Phillies lead 1-0; the Braves won regular-season series 11-8

Philadelphia opened a 6-1 lead through 4 innings and held on to take Tuesday’s opener 7-6. The Phillies banged out 5 doubles among 12 hits and are 7-3 in their last 10 road games. The downside to the Braves rally in Tuesday’s game is that the back end of the Philly pen was heavily leveraged to get to the finish line.

The Braves went 13-1 in their last 14 home games in the regular season, and Tuesday’s setback came after being idle for 5 days. Atlanta did manage to rally and make things interesting. The Braves hit multiple home runs for their 8th time in their last 12 games. Over that stretch, Atlanta has logged a .799 OPS.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Kyle Wright

Wheeler (12-7, 2.82 ERA) logged a 1.04 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 153 IP in 26 regular-season starts.

Kept the St. Louis Cardinals off the scoreboard in Friday Wild Card Series game: 6 1/3 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 4 K
Including the postseason, has allowed just 1 run in his last 21 1/3 IP
Owns a 2.38 ERA in his last 5 starts against Atlanta

Wright (21-5, 3.19 ERA) had a 1.16 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 180 1/3 IP in 30 starts in the regular season.

Faced Philadelphia 2 starts back (Sept. 24) and allowed 2R in 5 1/3 IP
Had 2.84 in 3 starts vs. Phillies in the regular season
Posted a 2.86 ERA in 103 2/3 IP at home this season

Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:31 a.m. ET.

Moneyline: Phillies +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Braves -140 (bet $150 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-180) | Braves -1.5 (+140)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Braves 4

Moneyline

Wheeler was sharp in his postseason debut last week and makes this start on a preferred 4-day rest interval. He’s been a solid 3rd-time-through-the-oder guy who can perhaps lighten the load on the Philly bullpen just a tad.

Wright has a short 4-game postseason pitching record. It’s filled with a few too many walks and not many multi-inning stretches of dominance. Statcast quality-of-contact analytics are bearish on his 3.19 surface ERA.

Bet PHILADELPHIA (+120).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Both clubs tangle in 1-run games at a higher-than-average rate. The Phils were outscored by just 3 runs (88-85) in the regular-season series.

A line watch might be in order: A play on the Phillies +1.5 could make sense now at -180 after it was at -190.

Over/Under

The overall team-vs.-team analytics view of this series would tilt toward the Under. Tuesday’s lefty-lefty match-up — a platoon edge for both teams — and the overvalued mound particulars, and to some extent, Atlanta’s layoff, made the Over a strong play (and it hit with ease).

Wednesday’s game falls into more neutral conditions, but it is not priced attractively. AVOID.

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NLDS Game 1: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Game 1 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves meet Tuesday at 1:07 p.m. ET (FOX). The contest at Truist Park swings the NL East foes into a best-of-5 NL Division Series. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Regular-season series: Braves won 11-8 and outscored the Phillies 88-85

Philadelphia went 87-75 in the regular season and advanced to this series by sweeping the St. Louis Cardinals in an NL Wild Card Series. The Phillies are 6-3 over their last 9 games away from home including the 2-game sweep of the Cards at Busch Stadium.

The Braves have been idle since the end of the regular season. Atlanta won the NL East with an overall record of 101-61 despite going 23-27 in April-May. The Braves have outscored opponents 65-28 while going 13-1 over their last 14 home games.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

LHP Ranger Suarez vs. LHP Max Fried

Suarez (10-7, 3.65 ERA) logged a 1.33 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 155 1/3 IP across 29 regular-season starts. He did not pitch in the Wild Card Series.

Notched a 3.15 ERA in the 2nd half
Posted a 3.20 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on the road vs. 4.27 ERA and 1.52 WHIP at home
Last pitched Oct. 4 (6 runs allowed over 3 innings at Houston Astros); made 6 regular-season starts on 6 or more days of rest and posted a 2.90 ERA with an improved strikeout-to-walk ratio compared to other rest periods
Held Atlanta to a .664 OPS over 5 starts in 2022

Fried (14-7, 2.48 ERA) logged 30 starts in the regular season. He had a 1.01 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 185 1/3 IP.

Held Phillies batters to a .692 OPS across 4 starts in 2022
Owns a 1.95 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over his last 60 IP
Last pitched Sept. 30 (1 run allowed over 5 innings vs. New York Mets); made 6 starts on 6 or more days of rest and notched a 3.63 ERA.

Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:53 a.m. ET.

Moneyline: Phillies +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Braves -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-135) | Braves -1.5 (+107)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 4

Moneyline

Respecting the prices here, which reflect the host Braves as an approximate two-thirds proposition.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Both clubs tangle in 1-run games at a higher-than-average rate. The Braves getting an early lead and working against the soft middle of the Philly bullpen is a plausible angle, but a potentially rusty Atlanta offense works against that too much.

Suarez is making his first career postseason start. Max Fried has pitched in 17 playoff games over the last 4 seasons (2018-21).

Bettors looking to leverage a bit of an Atlanta lean may want to consider a Braves Total Runs Over 3.5 (-150) or Over 4.5 (+112). Both bets could be workable if prices improve a bit.

Over/Under

The lefty-lefty match-up on the mound plays into platoon strengths for both sides. During the regular season, Philadelphia notched a .727 OPS against right-handed pitching and a .769 OPS vs. lefties. The Phillies own the league’s 3rd-best figure (.796 OPS) against southpaws since Aug. 1. Atlanta counters with respective OPS figures of .753 vs. right, .782 vs. left and .771 vs. left since Aug. 1.

Peg both starters as being a tad too far over their skis with their surface numbers. Playoff baseball is still a low-scoring proposition at its core, but the payoff here makes the OVER 7.5 (+100) a strong play.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (80-63) take on the Atlanta Braves (88-55) Friday in the opener of a 3-game set at Truist Park. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied 6-6

The Phillies had a 5-game winning streak snapped Thursday with a 5-3 loss at the Miami Marlins. They’re 7-3 in their last 10 games and have a 2 1/2-game lead over the San Diego Padres for the 2nd NL wild-card spot and 8 games behind Atlanta for the top spot.

Atlanta has cooled finally as it has dropped 4 of 5 games. The Braves have fallen 1 game behind the New York Mets for 1st place in the NL East. They’re still 21-9 over the last 30 games despite the skid. Atlanta is 32-15 against left-handed starters, which it’ll face Friday.

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Phillies at Braves projected starters

LHP Ranger Suarez vs. LHP Max Fried

Suarez (9-5, 3.62 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 134 1/3 IP.

3 starts against Atlanta this year: 0-2, 5.06 ERA, 16 IP, 16 H, 9 ER, 7 BB and 15 K
Could be wearing down with a 5.40 ERA over his last 4 starts

Fried (13-6, 2.50 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 169 1/3 IP.

2 starts against Phillies this year: 0-0, 3.75 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 9.8 K/9
Has a 1.84 ERA over his last 7 GS

Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:55 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Phillies +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Braves -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-140) | Braves -1.5 (+115)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 4

Money line

Fried has been too good of late, and he’ll neutralize the Phillies’ left-handed bats. Suarez hasn’t been good of late nor against Atlanta. OF Bryce Harper is hitting .180 with 2 homers in 39 at-bats this month and it’s in the bag if Fried continues to keep him under wraps.

The BRAVES FIRST 5 INNINGS (-125) is at a suitable price to take.

Run line/Against the spread

I’m leaning toward the Phillies here. They’re 37-31 on the RL on the road and are playing a good brand of baseball. I just think Atlanta has more on the pitching side. LEAN PHILLIES +1.5 (-140).

Over/Under

The wind is blowing in from right-center field at 6 mph on a 79-degree day. Both teams are 5-5 O/U over the last 10. The Over has hit in Suarez’s last 4 starts. The Over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these teams and 13-6 in the last 19 meetings in Atlanta. The OVER 7.5 (-112) sneaks by.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (63-41) host the Philadelphia Phillies (55-48) Wednesday for the 2nd game of their back-to-back at Truist Park with the 1st pitch scheduled for 12:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Atlanta leads 6-5

The Braves pounded the Phillies 13-1 Tuesday with Atlanta LF Eddie Rosario going 3-for-5 with a double and 5 RBIs and rookie SP Spencer Strider striking out 13 Phillies in just 6 2/3 innings of work.

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Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Charlie Morton

Wheeler is 9-5 with a 2.77 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 113 2/3 IP over 19 starts.

Last start: Won 8-7 Thursday at the Pittsburgh Pirates with 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 8 K.
2022 vs. the Braves: 1-0 with a 3.46 ERA (13 IP, 5 ER), 13 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 18 K in 2 starts.

Morton is 5-5 with a 4.34 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 110 IP over 20 starts.

Last start: Lost 7-2 Wednesday at the Phillies with 5 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 6 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
2022 vs. the Phillies: 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA (15 IP, 10 ER) 22 H, 1 HR, 7 BB and 14 K in 3 starts.

Phillies at Braves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:17 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Phillies +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Braves -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-190) | Braves -1.5 (+155)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 4, Phillies 3

Money line

GIMME the BRAVES (-140) because they have the better lineup and bullpen and there’s “reverse line movement” headed towards Atlanta in the betting market.

For instance, Atlanta’s lineup outperforms Phillies vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+ (105-97), wOBA (.323-.310), ISO (.195-.164) and hard-hit rate (35.5-29.5%), per FanGraphs.

Also, Atlanta’s bullpen has a 5.2 WAR whereas Philly’s bullpen has a 3.1 WAR and the Braves relievers have better swing-and-miss and contact rates than the Phillies.

Finally, roughly two-thirds of the action is on the Phillies but Atlanta’s ML has gone from -133 on the opener up to the current number, according to Pregame.com. This is suspicious because common sense suggests oddsmakers would adjust the lines according to the market movement.

“FLAT-BET” 1 unit on the BRAVES (-140) instead of betting to win 1 unit because of the price.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Morton is having an off-year while Wheeler has a 2.06 ERA in his last 5 starts vs. Atlanta. Furthermore, the Braves -1.5 (+155) are just 25-28 RL as home favorites and the Phillies +1.5 (-190) are 19-9 RL as road underdogs.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-115) because there’s more money on the Under whereas more bets have been placed on the Over 7.5 (-108) per Pregame.com. Since professional bettors put up a lot more dough than your average Joe, you want to follow the money when it’s counter to the public.

That said, it’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (-115) because the Over has cashed in 4 of the last 5 Phillies-Braves meetings in Atlanta and Truist Park ranks 9th in park factor, aka a hitter-friendly venue.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (55-47) take on the Atlanta Braves (62-41) Tuesday in the 1st game of a 2-game set at Truist Park. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied 5-5

The Phils have won 5 games in a row, and 6 of their last 7, but remain 10 games out in the NL East. On the plus side, OF Bryce Harper had the pins removed from his broken thumb and has begun to ramp up baseball activities. He could be back in a couple of weeks.

The Braves are coming off a 3-game sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks but lost 2 of 3 in Philadelphia before that. The Braves are 3 1/2 games behind the New York Mets in the NL East and just acquired RHP Jake Odorizzi from the Houston Astros to help for the stretch run.

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Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Nick Nelson vs. RHP Spencer Strider

Nelson (3-1, 3.94 ERA) makes his 2nd start and 28th appearance. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 48 IP.

Last pitched July 26 and threw 23 pitches. So this may be a 1-2-inning opening effort.
Has a 5.12 ERA,1.50 WHIP and 11.2 K/9 on the road vs. 3.14 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 7.5 K/9 at home.

Strider (5-3, 2.91 ERA) makes his 12th start and 23rd appearance. He has a 1.02 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 13.4 K/9 in 80 1/3 IP.

Allowed 1 ER on 3 H and 1 BB with 6 K over 6 IP to beat the Phillies July 26 in his last start.
Is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 14.3 K/9 across 39 IP at home.

Phillies at Braves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:57 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Phillies +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Braves -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-105) | Braves -1.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Phillies 3

Money line

Strider was a beast in July with 3 straight games of 8+ K’s. However, he has tapered off a bit in his last 2 starts. He struck out 6 Phillies in his last start, and I will take STRIDER UNDER 7.5 STRIKEOUTS (-130). I like the Braves to win, but we’re not touching the -240 ML. LEAN BRAVES FIRST 5 INNINGS (-155).

Run line/Against the spread

Four of the Braves’ 5 victories against the Phillies have been by more than 1 run, and 9 of the 10 games this season between these teams have been decided by more than a run. So I’ll LEAN BRAVES -1.5 (-115).

Over/Under

The Over is 7-2-1 between these teams this year and there have been 9 runs or more scored in 7 of the 10 meetings. It’s 90 degrees in Atlanta with a 7.6-mph breeze to left-center field. With the Phillies going with a bullpen day, let’s LEAN OVER 8.5 (-107).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (21-23) host the Philadelphia Phillies (20-24) Thursday in the finale of their 4-game series at Truist Park. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Braves took a 2-1 series lead by beating the Phillies 8-4 Wednesday following a 6-5 win Tuesday and a 7-3 loss Monday. Atlanta is now 5-5 straight up (SU) over its last 10 games and Philly is 3-7 SU in its last 10.

Season series: The Braves lead 2-1.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Kyle Wright

Nola is 1-4 with a 3.96 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 in 52 1/3 IP over 9 starts.

Last start: No-decision in 7-4 loss at the Los Angeles Dodgers Saturday with 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 9 K.
2021 vs. the Braves: 1-2 with a 4.55 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 8.9 K/9 in 30 1/3 IP over 5 starts.
vs. Braves on the current roster: 4.93 FIP with a .243/.322/.469 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line with 26.0 K% and 89.9 mph exit velocity (EV) in 254 plate appearances (PA).

Wright is 4-2 with a 2.49 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 47 IP over 8 starts.

Last start: Win, 4-3, Saturday at the Miami Marlins with 5-scoreless IP, 2 H, 3 BB and 6 K.
vs. Phillies on the current roster: 10.95 FIP with a .278/.513/.708 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 12.5 K% and 89.7 mph EV in 24 PA.

Phillies at Braves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:55 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Phillies -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Braves -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+160) | Braves +1.5 (-200)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 3

Money line

BET BRAVES (-115) because I give them the edge in both starting and relief pitching over the Phillies and both lineups have mediocre production thus far.

FanGraphs has Wright as the 9th-best starter in their power rankings while Nola is 23rd, which is still very impressive.

However, 4 of Wright’s 5 pitches have a minus-run value (RV), per Statcast, while just 2 of Nola’s 5 pitches have a minus-RV and Nola struggles in Atlanta.

Nola is 2-6 with a 4.55 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 2.6 K/BB rate (all worse than his career marks) in 10 career starts at Truist Park.

Atlanta’s bullpen is also 1st in FIP (2.87), 3rd in hard-hit rate (35.9%) and 6th in K/BB rate (3.03), according to FanGraphs.Whereas Philly’s bullpen has a 3.87 FIP (ranked 17th), a 42.0% hard-hit rate (27th) and a 2.02 K/BB rate (29th).

There’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the betting market for Tipico Sportsbook. More than 70% of the bets placed are on Philly’s ML but three-fourths of the cash is on Atlanta’s ML. Typically, it’s wiser to follow the money since sharps bet a lot more money than your average Joe.

The BRAVES (-115) is my favorite wager in this game.

Run line/Against the spread

SPRINKLE on the BRAVES -1.5 (+180) ALTERNATE RL, if at all, because this is such a chunky payout and Atlanta is 3-1 SU vs. Nola in their last 4 meetings and all 3 of those wins were by at least 4 runs.

Over/Under

PASS since we are getting to the party way late on the total. Phillies-Braves opened with an 8.5-run total (according to Pregame.com) but has been steamed down by sharp action to the current number.

However, Philly is 3-0-1 O/U in Nola’s last 4 starts, Atlanta is 15-5-2 O/U as a home favorite and the Over has cashed in 4 of the last 5 Phillies-Braves meetings.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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