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The 10th-seeded Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) and No. 7 seed Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) meet Friday in South Bend for a first-round tilt in the new College Football Playoff. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (ABC / ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Indiana vs. Notre Dame odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Hoosiers are in a bit of unchartered territory, figuring prominently into the national discussion. Coach Curt Cignetti came over from James Madison and immediately changed the culture at Indiana, getting the Hoosiers to believe they could win.
Indiana suffered just one loss, but that is where the detractors get loud. The Hoosiers lost against the only ranked team they played. They lost 38-15 as 10.5-point underdogs at then-No. 2, now-No. 7 Ohio State Nov. 23 with the Over (52.5) cashing. Indiana bounced back by trouncing rival Purdue 66-0 as a 29-point favorite while taking care of the Over (56.5) by itself Nov. 30. After an Under winner in the Hoosiers’ season opener (31-7 home victory vs. FIU), the Over went 9-2 in Indiana’s final 11 games.
Hoosiers QB Kurtis Rourke completed 70.4% of his passes for 2,827 yards with 27 TDs and 4 INTs. RB Justice Ellison rushed for 811 yards, 10 TDs and 5.5 yards per carry, while TB Ty Son Lawton had 634 yards, 12 TDs and 4.8 yards per attempt. WR Elijah Sarratt was the big target in the pass game, going for 890 yards and 8 TDs on 49 receptions.
After an impressive season-opening 23-13 win — as a 3-point underdog — at then-No. 20 Texas A&M, Notre Dame suffered a stunning 16-14 loss as a 28-point home favorite against Northern Illinois of the MAC back on Sept. 7. Like Indiana, it rebounded by handing 66 points on poor old Purdue Sept. 14 in a 59-point road victory. Including that rout, the Irish rattled off 10 straight wins, while going 9-1 against the spread (ATS), including 8 straight covers.
Fighting Irish QB Riley Leonard improved as the season went along. Through all 12 games, he completed 66.2% of his passes for 2,092 yards with 16 TDs vs. 5 INTs. He also had 721 rushing yards and 14 TDs on the ground. RB Jeremiyah Love rumbled for 949 yards, 7.1 yards per attempts and 15 TDs, too.
Notre Dame was very good on both sides of the ball, going for 421.3 total yards per game, 224.8 rushing yards per contest (ranking 10th in the country) and 39.8 points per game (3rd). Defensively, it allowed just 296.8 total yards per game (8th), while limiting teams to 157.9 passing yards per game (3rd) and just 13.6 PPG (3rd).
Indiana averaged 438.8 yards on offense per game (25th), 173.6 rushing YPG, 265.2 passing YPG and 43.3 PPG (2nd behind Miami’s 44.2). The Hoosiers stood out even more on defense, yielding 244.8 yards per game (2nd behind Ohio State’s 241.1), 174.0 passing YPG (9th) and led the country in surrendering just 70.8 rushing YPG. Indiana was sixth in points allowed per game (14.7).
Notre Dame is No. 3 in the US LBM Coaches Poll; Indiana is No. 9 — conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports.
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Indiana at Notre Dame odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Thursday at 9:50 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Indiana +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Notre Dame -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Indiana +7 (-105) | Notre Dame -7 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 52.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Indiana at Notre Dame picks and predictions
Prediction
Notre Dame 34, Indiana 20
Moneyline
Notre Dame (-275) straight up will cost 2.75 times the profitable return. That’s a little too expensive.
With the close proximity to South Bend, and the newness of the playoff, expect plenty of Indiana (+220) fans to make the trip to the shadow of Touchdown Jesus. However, the big fan presence is unlikely to make much of a difference in the second half.
PASS.
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Against the spread
BET NOTRE DAME -7 (-115), but expect a rather close game in the first half. This is a good play as long as it remains a flat 7. Go a little lighter if it climbs to 7 and a hook (7.5) or higher before kickoff.
As mentioned, the Hoosiers lost by 23 points as 10.5-point underdogs at Ohio State last month in the only game they were underdogs and the only time they faced a ranked team.
Over/Under
OVER 52.5 (-105) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.
The Over cashed in 9 of Indiana’s past 11 games, including in the loss at Ohio State.
While the Fighting Irish defense was pretty good down the stretch, the Over was still 4-1 in their final 5 games due to the explosive nature of the offense.
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