Tag: nfl stats

Falcons projected to have two 1,000-yard receivers in 2020

A recent Touchdown Wire feature set out to project how many 1,000-yard receivers the NFL will have in 2020.

Atlanta Falcons WR Julio Jones has been at or near the top of the NFL totem pole for nearly a decade. Year in and year out, Jones brings elite production and remarkably little drama for the caliber of talent he is.

Back in 2018, the Falcons used a first-round pick on another standout receiver from Alabama in Calvin Ridley. In two seasons, Ridley has proven to be a speedy deep-threat and a perfect complement to Jones — 17 touchdowns in 29 games.

A recent Touchdown Wire feature set out to predict how many 1,000-yard receivers the NFL will have in 2020. When it came to the Falcons, both Jones and Ridley were highlighted as favorites to hit the milestone:

“Julio Jones will make it seven straight seasons with 1,000 receiving yards. He’s capable of going over 1,500 for the fourth time in his career. And don’t be stunned if Calvin Ridley easily reaches 1,000. The former Alabama star had 866 receiving yards in his second season while missing three games.”

The Falcons’ duo combined for 2,260 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2019. Another season together in Dirk Koetter‘s scheme should help Jones and Ridley become one of the top tandems in the league this year.

Plus, the departure of tight end Austin Hooper will likely result in more targets for Ridley in 2020.

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Matt Ryan has the most 300-yard passing games since 2018

To say the Atlanta Falcons have lacked balance over the last two seasons would be an understatement.

To say the Atlanta Falcons have lacked balance over the last two seasons would be an understatement.

The team’s ground attack averaged just 85.1 yards per game in 2019, the third-lowest average in the league. Meanwhile, the Falcons’ passing offense put up 294.6 yards per game, the third-highest average in the NFL last season.

Atlanta has a quarterback in Matt Ryan that is capable of flinging the ball all over the field, but having at least some threat of a running game is what takes high-powered offenses to the next level.

However, playing in such a one-dimensional offense has put Ryan in rare air, leading the league in games of 300 or more passing yards over the past two years. As highlighted in the below Pro Football Focus tweet, the Falcons QB has gone over 300 yards 19 times since 2018.

Patrick Mahomes (17 games) is second, James Winston (16 games) is third, and Jared Goff (14 games) is fourth in the league in 300-yard performances since the start of the 2018 season.

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Matthew Stafford was the NFL’s most aggressive QB in 2019

Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford was the NFL’s most aggressive QB in 2019 per NFL Next Gen Stats

Matthew Stafford was in the midst of one of the most prolific passing seasons in NFL history in 2019 before he suffered his back injury. Though he only played eight games, the Lions QB led all NFL passers in aggressiveness rating.

The NFL’s Next Gen Stats tracked all the throws and the coverage on those pass attempts. The aggressiveness percentage is based on the percentage of total throws with a defender one yard or less away from the target.

Stafford tops that list with 23.4 percent of his pass attempts. He was also the NFL’s leader in average air yards per completion (8.3), which means he was throwing the ball down the field to covered receivers more frequently — and better — than any other quarterback.

The aggressiveness is a function of Stafford having incredible trust in his ability to fit the ball into small windows added to a group of wide receivers who get less separation on average than any other group in the NFL. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones are both excellent receivers, but they are not wideouts who consistently get a lot of open space between themselves and the coverage.

Stafford was on pace to pass for 5,000 yards, 38 TDs and 10 INTs before his injury. Doing so with a group of receivers that doesn’t get separation and with a rushing attack ranked in the lower third of the league makes it even more impressive.

Baker Mayfield was the NFL’s worst QB in 2019 when not facing pressure

Mayfield’s ability to handle no pressure fell off from 2018 to 2019

Anyone who watched the Cleveland Browns and Baker Mayfield carefully over the last two seasons knows the dropoff from 2018 to 2019 was very real for the precocious quarterback. Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar found one glaring area where Mayfield really struggled in his second season.

From Farrar’s research, Mayfield had the NFL’s worst QB Rating in 2019 when not facing any pressure on his throws.

“When he wasn’t harassed, Mayfield still threw a league-high 16 interceptions on 394 attempts, and a league-worst 84.0 quarterback rating.”

There are obviously mitigating circumstances around the numbers. He almost never practiced with his starting WRs due to their injuries, and four of those 16 interceptions came on passes where the ball hit the receiver in both hands before a defender made a play. But the falloff from Baker’s outstanding rookie season was stark when not facing pressure.

Mayfield’s numbers without pressure in 2018, provided by Farrar via Sorts Info Solutions:

236 completions in 352 attempts for 2,745 yards, 1,404 air yards, 18 touchdowns, and eight interceptions, 98.0 passer rating without pressure.

There’s still room for improvement beyond those figures too, but the regression to dead last in the NFL was not an expected development for Mayfield. In Kevin Stefanski’s offense — Mayfield’s fourth system in as many years going back to college — he should fare better without pressure. Mayfield cannot be a bottom-feeder in this category again.

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Over/Under: Projecting Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen’s stats

Projecting Josh Allen’s 2020 passing statistics and how they match up with the over/under betting odds.

Looking forward to the 2020 NFL season, it’s time to start breaking down how individual players will do statistically. Today we focus on Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen’s projected passing numbers and how they match up against future odds at BetMGM sportsbook.

Josh Allen’s stats history

Allen will be entering his third season in the league. After a rookie campaign with 2,074 passing yards, 10 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions, he played much better in 2019, leading the Bills to the postseason. He finished his sophomore season with 3,089 passing yards, 20 TD passes and nine interceptions. With talented WR Stefon Diggs and recently-drafted RB Zach Moss, the Bills’ third-round pick, being added in the offseason, Allen should be able to build on those numbers.

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Josh Allen’s projected stats and odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Odds last updated Monday, April 27 at 1:20 a.m. ET.

Passing Yards: 3,349.5 / OVER: -110 / UNDER: -110

Passing Touchdowns: 20.5 / OVER: -125 / UNDER: +105

Looking ahead to 2020, Allen should see a bump in production. The Bills have more talent on offense, especially with Diggs. Passing for 3,349.5 yards would only rank 19th last season. That is a reasonable expectation for Allen in 2020. Throwing more than 20 touchdowns would put him in the top 20 last season. BET THE OVERS ON BOTH PROPS.

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Over/Under: Projecting Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers’ stats

Projecting Aaron Rodgers’ 2020 passing statistics and how they match up with the over/under betting odds.

Looking forward to the 2020 NFL season, it’s time to start breaking down how individual players will do statistically. Below, we focus on Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers’ projected passing numbers and how they match up against future odds at BetMGM sportsbook.

Aaron Rodgers’ stats history

Rodgers is a two-time MVP winner for his incredible seasons in 2011 and 2014. In those two seasons combined, he threw 83 touchdowns against just 11 interceptions. Rodgers has always had an excellent touchdown-to-interception ratio, but it appears his conservations could now be hurting him.

Over the last five years, Rodgers has thrown just 27 interceptions to 138 touchdowns. While that ratio is incredible, his yards per attempt has dropped down to just 7.0, which is very mediocre by his standards. He has become too conservative and it has cut down his yardage total as a whole. It’s also worth noting Rodgers hasn’t thrown for 4,500 yards or more since the 2011 season and he has never surpassed 4,700 yards in a season.

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Aaron Rodgers’ projected stats and odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Odds last updated Saturday, April 25 at 10:30 am ET.

Passing Yards: 4,099.5  / OVER: -110 / UNDER: -110

The only passing total currently on the board for Rodgers is the passing yardage total, which is set at 4,099.5. Rodgers finished the 2019 campaign with 4,002 yards while starting all 16 games. In 2018, he threw for 4,442 yards under ex-head coach Mike McCarthy.

With the Packers selecting running back A.J. Dillon in the second round and ignoring the receiver position during the first two days as a whole, you have to wonder if Green Bay plans on running the ball more during Rodgers’ final few seasons with the Packers. He will turn 37 in early December and it appears he is only becoming more conservative as he ages.

The safe bet here is the UNDER, especially when you consider his age and how Green Bay wants to play on offense. There is also the looming question of why the Packers took QB Jordan Love in the first round. Will they try to get him on the field some as a rookie, maybe later in games? That could certainly impact Rodgers’ passing yardage total.

Rodgers is still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but he’s no longer a high-volume passer. Instead, look for him to try to be efficient on 35 or 36 attempts per game.

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Over/Under: Projecting Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson’s stats

Projecting Lamar Jackson’s 2020 passing statistics and how they match up with the over/under betting odds.

Looking forward to the 2020 NFL season, it’s time to start breaking down how individual players will do statistically. Today we focus on Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson‘s projected passing numbers and how they match up against future odds at BetMGM sportsbook.

Lamar Jackson’s stats history

Jackson was the league’s unanimous MVP in 2019, his second season in the pros. He went 13-2 as a starter, passing for 3,127 yards with a league-high 36 touchdowns with only six interceptions. He also rushed for 1,206 yards with seven TDs.

The Ravens offense is built around the rushing attack, but as Jackson enters his third season, he should see an increase in passing yards.

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Lamar Jackson’s projected stats and odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Odds last updated Tuesday, April 21 at 3:30 a.m. ET.

Passing Yards: 3,249.5 / OVER: -110 / UNDER: -110

Passing Touchdowns: 26.5 / OVER: -110 / UNDER: -110

Jackson was only 22nd in the league in passing yards. If we are to assume he will continue to develop as a quarterback, he’ll be expected to pass for more yards than last season. Twenty quarterbacks had at least 3,250 passing yards in 2019. Can we expect the league MVP to be in the top 20 in passing? Certainly. Take OVER 3,249.5 (-110) on Jackson’s passing yards as he takes another step forward as a passing QB. As for touchdown passes, seven quarterbacks had at least 27 last season. Jackson might not match the 36 he had in 2019, but he should toss more than 26. Take OVER 26.5 (-110) on TD passes as well.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Over/Under: Projecting New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees’ stats

Projecting Drew Brees’ 2020 passing statistics and how they match up with the over/under betting odds.

Looking forward to the 2020 NFL season, it’s time to start breaking down how individual players will do statistically. Today we focus on New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees’ projected passing numbers and how they match up against future odds at BetMGM sportsbook.

Drew Brees’ stats history

Brees is the most prolific and accurate passer in history. He holds the NFL career record for passing yards (77,416) and touchdown passes (547). He had 12 straight seasons of more than 4,000 passing yards (2006-’17), five times eclipsing 5,000-plus yards. However, he threw for less than 4,000 yards the last two seasons as he missed one game in 2018 and five games with a thumb injury last year. His per-game averages would have given him more than 4,250 yards each season if he had played in all 16.

Brees also recorded nine straight seasons with at least 30 touchdown passes from 2008-’16, but failed to reach that many two of the last three seasons.

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Drew Brees’ projected stats and odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Odds last updated Monday, April 20 at 1 a.m. ET.

Passing Yards: 4099.5 / OVER: -110 / UNDER: -110

Passing Touchdowns: 30.5 / OVER: -110 / UNDER: -110

The key for the 41-year-old Brees’ numbers will be his health. Last season was the first year he missed more than one game since 2003, so he has a history of durability. He has one of the best receivers in football in Michael Thomas, plus the Saints signed free agent WR Emmanuel Sanders. Passing yards should be in abundance again. However, with a running back like Alvin Kamara in goal-to-go situations, it is much more likely the Saints will run the ball. Plus, even with his fantastic numbers, it became clear that Brees’ arm is not what it was. To reach 4,100 passing yards, he will only have to average just a little more than 256 yards per game, lower than any per-game average for Brees since 2005. Even if he misses a game, he would only have to average 273.3 yards per game. For his passing yards, take the OVER.

Touchdown passes are another thing completely. He only had 27 in 2019, but that was in 11 games. Looking at that and his history, you have to also take the OVER for touchdown passes.

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Over/Under: Projecting Philadelphia Eagles QB Carson Wentz’s stats

Projecting Carson Wentz’s 2020 passing statistics and how they match up with the over/under betting odds.

Looking forward to the 2020 NFL season, it’s time to start breaking down how individual players will do statistically. Today we focus on Philadelphia Eagles QB Carson Wentz‘s projected passing numbers and how they match up against future odds at BetMGM sportsbook.

Carson Wentz’s stats history

Wentz made it through all 16 games last season for the first time since his rookie campaign of 2016, and he led the Eagles to the NFC East Division title. He ended up completing 63.9 percent of his passes for a career-high 4,039 yards with 27 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He also was sacked a career-high 37 times last season, and his 93.1 QB Rating was his lowest since 2016. On the ground, he rushed for 243 yards (3.9 yards per attempt) with one TD.

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Carson Wentz’s projected stats and odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list.  Lines last updated Saturday, April 18 at 5:10 a.m. E.T.

Passing Yards: 3,899.5 / OVER: -110 / UNDER: -110

Passing Touchdowns: 26.5 / OVER: -120 / UNDER: +100

It’s risky to bet the over on Wentz, only because he has made it through all 16 games just twice in his four-year NFL career. The good news for Wentz is that he has a decent stable of pass catchers in WRs Desean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery and TE Zach Ertz. After that, however, the receiving corps is a little questionable, so Wentz’s production is also connected to D-Jax, Jeffery and Ertz staying healthy. The Eagles figure to have a strong run game with RBs Miles Sanders and Boston Scott, too. If Philly’s offense is a little more balanced, it will hurt Wentz and his potential to go “Over” in passing yardage. Look at it this way, he has eclipsed the target yardage total just once in four NFL seasons. He also has managed to hit 27 or more touchdown passes just twice in his career, and he barely inched over the line last season. Bet the UNDER on both props.

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Over/Under: Projecting New York Jets QB Sam Darnold’s stats

Projecting Sam Darnold’s 2020 passing statistics and how they match up with the over/under betting odds.

Looking forward to the 2020 NFL season, it’s time to start breaking down how individual players will do statistically. Below, we focus on New York Jets QB Sam Darnold’s projected passing numbers and how they match up against future odds at BetMGM sportsbook.

Sam Darnold’s stats history

Darnold, the third overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft, has been limited to just 13 games in each of his first two seasons. He owns a career completion percentage of 59.9, and he threw for a career-high 3,024 passing yards in 2019 with 19 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.

Darnold is just 11-15 as a starter entering his third season and the Jets have lost all six games without him under center. The soon-to-be 23-year-old showed some modest improvements last season in his first campaign under head coach Adam Gase, but durability and health are now big questions.

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Sam Darnold’s projected stats and odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Odds last updated Saturday, April 18 at 12:50 p.m. ET.

Passing Yards: 3,529.5 / OVER: -110 / UNDER: -110

As of the time of this posting, there was no projection for Darnold’s 2020 touchdown total.

Darnold would have eclipsed this yardage number if he had been able to play all 16 games in 2019. His 232.6 yards per game had him on pace for 3,721.6 yards as a sophomore.

The free-agent loss of speedy deep-threat WR Robby Anderson, who ranked first or second on the team in receiving yards each of the last three years, will hurt his production. The Jets are equipped with the 11th overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft, where they are fully expected to target and land one of the top available receivers in CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy or Henry Ruggs III.

Take the OVER (-110) on a relatively modest production for the third-year starter. The addition of a top rookie wideout, to go along with Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman, Quincy Enunwa and RB Le’Veon Bell, and a 16-game season will result in a career year.

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