Looking forward to the 2020 NFL season, it’s time to start breaking down how individual players will do statistically. Today we focus on New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees’ projected passing numbers and how they match up against future odds at BetMGM sportsbook.
Drew Brees’ stats history
Brees is the most prolific and accurate passer in history. He holds the NFL career record for passing yards (77,416) and touchdown passes (547). He had 12 straight seasons of more than 4,000 passing yards (2006-’17), five times eclipsing 5,000-plus yards. However, he threw for less than 4,000 yards the last two seasons as he missed one game in 2018 and five games with a thumb injury last year. His per-game averages would have given him more than 4,250 yards each season if he had played in all 16.
Brees also recorded nine straight seasons with at least 30 touchdown passes from 2008-’16, but failed to reach that many two of the last three seasons.
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Drew Brees’ projected stats and odds
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Odds last updated Monday, April 20 at 1 a.m. ET.
Passing Yards: 4099.5 / OVER: -110 / UNDER: -110
Passing Touchdowns: 30.5 / OVER: -110 / UNDER: -110
The key for the 41-year-old Brees’ numbers will be his health. Last season was the first year he missed more than one game since 2003, so he has a history of durability. He has one of the best receivers in football in Michael Thomas, plus the Saints signed free agent WR Emmanuel Sanders. Passing yards should be in abundance again. However, with a running back like Alvin Kamara in goal-to-go situations, it is much more likely the Saints will run the ball. Plus, even with his fantastic numbers, it became clear that Brees’ arm is not what it was. To reach 4,100 passing yards, he will only have to average just a little more than 256 yards per game, lower than any per-game average for Brees since 2005. Even if he misses a game, he would only have to average 273.3 yards per game. For his passing yards, take the OVER.
Touchdown passes are another thing completely. He only had 27 in 2019, but that was in 11 games. Looking at that and his history, you have to also take the OVER for touchdown passes.
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