2020 NFL mock draft: 3 QBs, 3 OTs go in top 10

2020 NFL mock draft of Round 1 of the 2020 NFL Draft in Las Vegas, where Joe Burrow is expected to go No. 1.

The 2020 NFL draft is still more than a month away and NFL mock drafts fill the internet. So let’s add another one to the list of projections, possibilities and scenarios … with some expert analysis.

Here are my projections for the first round of the NFL Draft.

1. Cincinnati Bengals: LSU QB Joe Burrow

This pick is a lock. Cincinnati needs a franchise quarterback and Burrow was the best one in college this past season. Though so much of Burrow’s production came in one season, some analysts rank him above other quarterbacks to go No. 1 in recent history.

2. Washington Redskins: Ohio State EDGE Chase Young

The Redskins could surprise people and draft a quarterback despite having taken Dwayne Haskins in the first round last year. Such a decision proved to be the right one for the Arizona Cardinals a year ago. This time, however, the Redskins probably take Young, a dynamic pass rusher. The Cardinals were able to trade away Josh Rosen and hand the team to Kyler Murray last season. The Redskins aren’t comfortable they can do that with Tua Tagovailoa because injury concerns have his availability in 2020 in question.

3. Detroit Lions: Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah

The Lions are looking to trade Darius Slay, their No. 1 cornerback. They have to replace him and Okudah fits the bill.

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4. New York Giants: Alabama OT Jedrick Wills

The Giants have their quarterback, running back and a promising young receiver. They don’t have good protection for that quarterback, Daniel Jones. They could go with Clemson do-it-all linebacker Isaiah Simmons here, but the defense needs more than just Simmons to make significant improvement. New York needs to protect Jones and the tackle talent at the top of the draft is fantastic. It thins out quickly so if they want a tackle to contribute, it has to be right here.

5. Miami Dolphins: Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa

Miami has been waiting to make this pick for about a year. Now it will actually happen. And the Dolphins are prepared to sit Tagovailoa as they still have Ryan Fitzpatrick to start in 2020.

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NFL mock draft: 3 QBs, 3 OTs go in top 10

2020 NFL mock draft of Round 1 of the 2020 NFL Draft in Las Vegas, where Joe Burrow is expected to go No. 1

The NFL draft is still more than a month away and mock drafts fill the internet. So let’s add another one to the list of projections, possibilities and scenarios … with some expert analysis.

Here are my projections for the first round of the draft.

Get in on some 2020 NFL futures action by betting at BetMGM. New customer offer: RISK-FREE First Bet (up to $500!) paid in free bets.

1. Cincinnati Bengals: LSU QB Joe Burrow

2. Washington Redskins: Ohio State EDGE Chase Young

3. Detroit Lions: Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah

The Lions are looking to trade Darius Slay, their No. 1 cornerback. They have to replace him and Okudah fits the bill.

4. New York Giants: Alabama OT Jedrick Wills

5. Miami Dolphins: Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa

Miami has been waiting to make this pick for about a year. Now it will actually happen. And the Dolphins are prepared to sit Tagovailoa as they still have Ryan Fitzpatrick to start in 2020.

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NFL Prop Bet Payday: Championship Game Edition

Previewing Sunday’s NFL conference championship games between the Titans and Chiefs and the Packers and 49ers with NFL betting odds, picks and best bets

The Super Bowl dreams are still alive for four teams, and those four teams have one thing in common: the last time they stood this close to the Super Bowl, most players taking the field this weekend weren’t yet in the league — and in some cases, even alive. San Francisco’s last Super Bowl was in 2013. Green Bay’s was 2011. Tennessee’s was 2000. Kansas City’s was 1970 before the AFL and NFL merged.

Two of those franchises will end their drought. Our championship week prop bets look at a key player from each team and breaks down how each can make you a winner.

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Bo Knows Derrick

Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry has been close to unstoppable this postseason. (Photo credit: Jim Brown – USA TODAY Sports)

The number keeps getting higher on Derrick Henry’s rushing yards — currently at 106.5 with -112 on both the over and the under — and for good reason. He has rushed for 149 or more yards in six of his last eight games, including games of 211, 182 and 195 in his last three and 188 when he played Kansas City in November. In that game, even if you took out his 68-yard touchdown run, he still ran 22 times for 120 yards. The Titans have fed him the ball 30 or more times in each of the last three games against defenses viewed as being better than that of the Chiefs. Barring a 20-point deficit in the first half, he will keep getting the rock. TAKE THE OVER.

The Road Less Travis-ed

Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce had 3 touchdowns in a quarter last weekend. What will he do come Sunday? (Photo credit: Mark J. Rebilas – USA TODAY Sports)

Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is being given a pretty representative over/under number to get action on both sides at 78.5 yards (-112 on both the over and under). Since quarterback Patrick Mahomes returned from injury, Kelce has caught seven or more passes in six of eight games, including catching seven passes for 75 yards against the Titans in Week 10. Tennessee is likely going to double Tyreek Hill more often than not in an effort to prevent the huge play over the top. Enter Kelce and death by paper cut. By the time the Texans doubled Kelce in the second half of their game last week, it was too late. He caught 10 passes for 134 yards and three touchdowns. He likely won’t hit that number, but eight catches for 80+ yards isn’t out of the question. TAKE THE OVER.

The Adams Family

Aaron Rodgers (12) and Davante Adams are one football’s scariest hookups. (Photo credit: Jeff Hanisch – USA TODAY Sports)

The Packers don’t hide the fact that Davante Adams is the main man in their pass offense — and whoever the No. 2 guy happens to be that week isn’t even close. He has a big over/under receiving yardage number of 84.5 (-112 on both), but there are two factors that come into play. Green Bay needed to win each of their last four games to hold their spot as the No. 2 seed in the NFC. In those games, Adams had yardage totals of 103, 116, 93 and 160. The case against Adams is that Richard Sherman will likely be chasing him around wherever he lines up come this Sunday. But if the 49ers open up a big lead (they’re favored by 7.5 points) Rodgers will have nothing to lose to keep throwing. Even if it covers in garbage time, that’s fine. TAKE THE OVER.

The World According to Jim

Considering the stakes, his opponent and a strong rushing attack behind him, will 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo be asked to do less Sunday? (Photo Credit: Orlando Ramirez – USA TODAY Sports)

The over/under on passing yards for Jimmy Garoppolo is 248.5 (-112 on both). It’s a solid number because he has exceeded that number in five of his last 10 games — and finished with 248 in two others. But two things play in against him hitting the over. Green Bay’s pass rush won’t let him have all day to throw. They will dial up the heat and get the ball out of his hands. More importantly, the closer teams get to the Super Bowl, the more conservative most of them get. Last week, the three-headed 49ers backfield combined to rush 42 times. If they get a big lead, which many in Vegas are projecting, they will take the air out of the ball to shorten the game and pound the rock until Green Bay stops it. TAKE THE UNDER.

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Why you should bet on Tennessee Titans to win AFC Championship

Previewing the Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs AFC Championship Game, with NFL betting odds, picks, futures and best bets.

The Tennessee Titans (11-7) look for a third straight upset on the road when they travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (13-4) in Sunday’s AFC Championship. The Titans pulled off a surprising 28-12 victory over the Baltimore Ravens last week, which was the team’s fifth straight road win, a span in which they have outscored their opponents by 16 points per game.

Tennessee has been playing extremely well with QB Ryan Tannehill under center, going 9-3 in his 12 starts. He hasn’t been asked to do much with his arm in the playoffs, as the team has leaned very heavily on RB Derrick Henry, who topped 180 rushing yards in both games.

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These teams met in Nashville back in Week 10, and there were plenty of offensive fireworks in Tennessee’s 35-32 win. In that game, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes exploded for 446 yards and three touchdowns, while Henry ran all over the Kansas City defense, racking up 188 yards and two scores.

It will be tough to steal a win in Kansas City, but this game stands a strong chance of going down to the wire. The Titans are getting 7.5 points (-121) on the spread and +260 odds on the moneyline. Both represent solid value.

Establishing the run

(Photo Credit: Geoff Burke – USA TODAY Sports)

Henry led the NFL with 1,540 rushing yards in the regular season, and he has been virtually unstoppable lately. He is averaging 196 rushing yards over his past three games and has topped 100 yards in seven of his last eight, including 149 yards or more in six of those contests.

The Kansas City defense has been vulnerable against the run all season. They have surrendered the fourth-most yards per attempt on the ground, and seventh-most yards per game. The Titans offensive game plan looks pretty obvious, and Henry should have another huge day.

Which defense will step up?

(Photo Credit: Evan Habeeb – USA TODAY Sports)

The Titans aren’t built to play from behind, so they can’t afford to get down a couple scores. As long as the game is close, they should be able to continue feeding the ball to Henry, and he should run wild on the porous Chief run defense.

The Tennessee defense will need to do a better job of containing Mahomes, who went off for 446 yards and three scores in the Week 10 matchup.

This should be a high-scoring affair, as the Titans should move the ball at will on the ground, but they will have a hard time slowing down the Kansas City air attack. The Chiefs, winners of six straight, deserve to be slight favorites, but Tennessee has beat them once already, and has a good chance to hand them their fourth home loss of the season. Back the Titans in this one.

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Why you should bet on San Francisco 49ers to win NFC Championship

Previewing the Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers NFC Championship Game, with NFL betting odds, picks, futures and best bets.

After dominating the Minnesota Vikings in the divisional round of the playoffs last Saturday, the San Francisco 49ers (14-3) sit one win away from the Super Bowl. The only team standing in their way? The Aaron Rodgers-led Green Bay Packers (14-3).

While both teams finished the regular season 13-3, the 49ers were the far better team. Their point differential of 169 was not only best in the NFC but was 106 points better than that of the Packers. San Francisco finished the regular season with the No. 2 scoring offense and No. 2 defense in yards allowed.

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And when these teams met in the regular season, the 49ers absolutely crushed the Packers, beating them 37-8. Green Bay was held to 198 total yards with Rodgers throwing for only 104 yards with a paltry 3.15 yards per attempt – the lowest of his career in a game he started.

All of this adds up to the 49ers being 7.5-point favorites over the Packers on Sunday night at Levi’s Stadium, with a moneyline of -358. But should you bet on them to win the game?

In short: YES.

Can the good fortune last?

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. (Photo Credit: Jeff Hanisch – USA TODAY Sports)

The Packers have overachieved to make it this far and weren’t as good as their record during the regular season. They were 18th in total offense and 18th in total defense in 2019, ranking outside the top 10 in passing and rushing, as well. Their saving grace was turnovers – tying for seventh in the NFL with 25 takeaways and finishing second with 13 giveaways. The plus-12 turnover differential was tied for third in the league.

Green Bay scored fewer than 24 points in nine games this season with eight of their wins coming by only one possession. The 49ers, who were said to have played in a lot of close games, actually won only five games by one possession and scored at least 24 points in all but four games this year – including their 27-10 win over Minnesota last weekend.

Strength vs. strength

San Francisco 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa. (Photo credit: Stan Szeto – USA TODAY Sports)

This game will come down to two key factors: Can the 49ers get pressure on Rodgers, and can the Packers slow down San Francisco’s rushing attack? The 49ers finished fifth in the NFL with 48 sacks this season – and they were well distributed. Arik Armstead had 10, Nick Bosa had nine, DeForest Buckner posted 7.5 and Dee Ford had 6.5 in only 11 games.

Blocking a defensive line with that sort of production spread across the front is a huge challenge, because it’s not as if the Packers can focus all of their attention on one guy. David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga are outstanding tackles, and Elgton Jenkins has been great at guard, but the Packers’ offensive line struggled to protect Rodgers the last time these teams met, allowing five sacks.

As for stopping the 49ers’ ground game, the Packers did a great job of that in Week 12. They held San Francisco to only 112 yards rushing in that one, with no player gaining more than 45 yards by himself. On the flip side, Green Bay still lost 37-8 – and that was with 49ers running back Matt Breida out with injury.

This is a game the 49ers should (and will) win.

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Should you bet on the Minnesota Vikings to win Super Bowl LIV?

Previewing the Minnesota Vikings’ Super Bowl LIV chances, with NFL betting odds, picks, futures and best bets.

The Minnesota Vikings are one of the bigger Jekyll and Hyde teams in the league, and have been for some time. Their veteran-laden lineup has Pro Bowl talent on both sides of the ball, but when it comes to putting it all together in a season, it has yet to happen for the Vikings.

And this season shouldn’t be the exception to that rule.

Minnesota’s odds of winning the Super Bowl are currently at +3300. Only Buffalo (+6000) and Tennessee (+4000) have longer odds.

New to sports betting? A $100 wager on the Vikings to win the Super Bowl would return a profit of $3,300 should they run the table.

NFL futures odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Friday at 5:15 p.m. ET.

Can the Vikings pull it off?

Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings know a thing or two about beating the Saints in the playoffs. (Photo credit: Harrison Barden – USA TODAY Sports)

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One thing that Minnesota has going for it is a defense that can contain opposing offenses. The Vikings defense gave up just 31 touchdowns this season — fewer than two per game and fewest of any NFC playoff team. The defense isn’t as dominant as it has been in previous seasons, but still held opponents to 21 or fewer points in 10 games.

The Vikings also have a penchant for stringing together wins. Over the last five seasons, Minnesota has had winning streaks of four or more games in all but one of them, including two streaks of five straight wins and one of eight.

This season, Minnesota won four straight in October to go from 2-2 to 6-2 and virtually cement its playoff position. This is a team capable of getting on a hot streak.

Or is it just too tall a task?

Running back Dalvin Cook is one of several players capable of carrying the Vikings far in playoffs. The problem is just how log that road will be with three road wins needed just to get to the Super Bowl. (Photo c: Brace Hemmelgarn – USA TODAY Sports)

The biggest problem with the Vikings, however, is that they didn’t win the NFC North. And it doesn’t help that a loaded NFC forced a 13-3 New Orleans team to play on wild-card weekend.

The 10-6 Vikings know two things. 1) They have to go on the road to play a 13-3 team in the first round of the playoffs (New Orleans) and 2) if they win that game, they have to go back on the road to play another 13-3 team (San Francisco). And if the Vikings get through that and the other half of the NFC bracket holds, it would mean a third trip to a 13-3 club, to face Green Bay in the NFC title game.

Then there’s the whole Saints looking for revenge for the Minnesota Miracle to postseasons ago, as well.

Minnesota has the horses to some damage with Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph on offense and Danielle Hunter, Linval Joseph, Everson Griffen, Anthony Barr, Eric Kendricks, Harrison Smith and Xavier Rhodes on defense — but the path through the NFC is just too daunting to expect that the Vikings can make the run needed to get to the Super Bowl, much less win it.

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Should you bet on the Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl LIV?

Previewing the Kansas City Chiefs’ Super Bowl LIV chances, with NFL betting odds, picks, futures and best bets.

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Throughout the 2019 season, it appeared the Kansas City Chiefs just didn’t have “it” this season after losing 37-31 in overtime to the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship last season; however, they finished the 2019 season strong, winning six straight games to become the No. 2 seed in the conference.

With a first-round bye in hand, the Chiefs have an excellent chance at advancing to the Super Bowl. Below are their odds to win Super Bowl LIV and reasons why you should and shouldn’t bet on Kansas City to take home the Lombardi Trophy this postseason.

NFL futures odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Friday at 5:15 p.m. ET.

Why you should bet on the Chiefs to win Super Bowl LIV

(Photo Credit: Denny Medley – USA TODAY Sports)

Odds To Win Super Bowl LIV: +450

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As we have seen over the last decade, quarterback play is a significant factor in who wins the Super Bowl. Luckily for Kansas City, reigning-MVP Patrick Mahomes is healthy, and he is starting to get back to his form of last season. It also helps that he will have his full assortment of weapons on the field in the playoffs, which might just be the best supporting cast in the AFC.

It also doesn’t hurt that the Chiefs’ defense is starting to play better, allowing just 11.5 points per game over the last six weeks. They are beginning to create sacks and turnovers, which will be needed to advance deep in the playoffs.

Given that Kansas City will host a playoff game in Round 2, it certainly doesn’t seem impossible the Chiefs can get hot and make a three-game run with Mahomes under center. At +200, the Chiefs are a great bet to win the AFC Championship. They’re also a strong play at +450 to win Super Bowl LIV.

Why you shouldn’t bet on the Chiefs to win Super Bowl LIV

(Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff – USA TODAY Sports)

New to sports betting? A $10 wager on the Chiefs to win Super Bowl LIV would return a profit of $45 should Kansas City win the Super Bowl.

Despite being the No. 2 seed, the road to the Super Bowl could be awfully tough for the Chiefs. They will likely host the New England Patriots in Round 2, and the Pats have shown no fear playing in Arrowhead Stadium lately. If the Chiefs can survive that contest, they will then likely travel to Baltimore to take on the No. 1-seeded Ravens. It’s a brutal draw for the Chiefs and one which could keep them out of the Super Bowl for a second-straight season.

There is also some lingering doubt about head coach Andy Reid in the playoffs. While no one can argue about his regular-season success, too often, his teams come up short relative to expectations. For Kansas City to advance to the Super Bowl, Reid will need to outcoach the likes of Bill Belichick and John Harbaugh to make it to the Super Bowl. While that’s certainly possible, there are some reasons to be concerned.

Ultimately, the Chiefs are still a great bet to win the Super Bowl due to their overwhelming amount of talent on both sides of the ball. Don’t be afraid to put down a few units on the Chiefs to make a run this postseason.

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Should you bet on the Seattle Seahawks to win Super Bowl LIV?

Previewing the Seattle Seahawks’ Super Bowl LIV chances, with NFL betting odds, picks, futures and best bets.

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The NFL playoffs begin this weekend and the Seattle Seahawks open on the road as the No. 5 seed in the NFC, taking on the NFC East champion Philadelphia Eagles on the road Sunday at 4:35 p.m. ET.

They had a chance to be as high as the No. 1 seed in the conference but ended up one play short of winning the NFC West and getting the coveted first-round bye.

Seattle is a perennial contender and is built to win playoff games. They have been to two Super Bowls in the last decade and won one. The question is whether you should bet on the Seahawks to win Super Bowl LIV.

Seattle Seahawks playoff futures

(Photo Credit: Joe Nicholson – USA TODAY Sports)

NFL futures odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Friday at 4:45 pm. ET.

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They have, along with the Eagles, the second-longest odds to make it to the Super Bowl out of the NFC at +1200. To win the Super Bowl, only five teams have higher odds than Seattle’s +2500.

They can provide one of the biggest paydays of all the teams in the postseason. A $10 bet on them to get to the Super Bowl will return $120 in profit and a $10 bet on them to win it all will win $250.

It is a big payday. The question is whether it is worth betting on them.

Why you shouldn’t bet on the Seahawks to win Super Bowl LIV

Dec 29, 2019; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch (24) puts on his helmet during the fourth quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at CenturyLink Field. (Photo Credit: Joe Nicholson – USA TODAY Sports)

They will have to win three games on the road to get to the Super Bowl, having to play in Philadephia and then potentially Green Bay, New Orleans or San Francisco. However, they shared the league’s best road record at 7-1 and were 10-2 in one-score games.

It is hard to bet against QB Russell Wilson, but the Seahawks are without their top three running backs in Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny and C.J. Prosise. All are on injured reserve and Seattle recently had to sign Marshawn Lynch to back up rookie Travis Homer.

The defense is not what it used to be, as the Seahawks were 22nd in the league in scoring defense, and they allowed an average of 25.7 points per game over their last three games. You can’t ever count out Wilson, but the Seahawks faltered down the stretch, losing three of four to end the regular season.

The potential payout is huge, but they aren’t worth the risk of a big wager. If you are going to bet on Seattle, keep it in the casual range.

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Should you bet on the New Orleans Saints to win Super Bowl LIV?

Previewing the New Orleans Saints’ Super Bowl LIV chances, with NFL betting odds, picks, futures and best bets.

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Since September, the New Orleans Saints have looked like Super Bowl LIV contenders, but do they warrant an NFL futures bet?

With a 13-3 record, the Saints were dominant during the regular season. Their only slip-up games were when Brees injured his thumb in Week 2 against the Los Angeles Rams, a stunning Week 10 loss to the NFC South-rival Atlanta Falcons and a thrilling 48-46 shootout loss to the San Francisco 49ers – arguably the best game of the 2019 season.

They won six games by double-digits and enter the playoffs on a three-game winning streak – two of which came by at least 27 points and the other by 10 points.

Yet, despite rolling to a stellar regular-season record, the Saints still didn’t earn a first-round bye. Those two free passes went to the 49ers and Green Bay Packers.

Why you should bet on the Saints to win Super Bowl LIV

NFL futures odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Friday at 4 pm. ET.

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Sitting out the Wild Card Round is a huge advantage, with more than 79% of Super Bowl representatives in NFL history being No. 1 or 2 seeds in the postseason. After all, teams with top-two seeds have to win one fewer game than teams seeded third or lower, making the path to a championship much easier.

The Saints are a rare team that can buck that trend with a four-game winning streak to claim Super Bowl LIV. And that’s exactly why you should bet on them to win it all.

According to BetMGM, the Saints are +600 to win Super Bowl LIV – the fourth-best odds of the 12 playoff teams. That’s better than even the Packers, who have a first-round bye and would host the Saints in the Divisional Round, should New Orleans advance past the Minnesota Vikings.

New to sports betting? A $10 wager on the Saints to win Super Bowl LIV would return a profit of $60 should New Orleans win the Super Bowl.

That just goes to show how the oddsmakers view the Saints and their chances of being the last team standing.

New Orleans should make easy work of Minnesota (+3300 to win Super Bowl LIV), especially with the game being played at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Saints are favored by 7.5 points, the largest spread of the four games this weekend. Brees, WR Michael Thomas and RB Alvin Kamara are all healthy entering the postseason and will help carry the offense.

Why you should bet on the Saints to win the NFC Championship (+260)

(Photo Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel – USA TODAY Sports)

Defensively, the Saints are no slouches, either. They finished 13th in points allowed and 11th in yards allowed, performing especially well against the run with the fourth-fewest rushing yards allowed per game. The Vikings prefer to lean on RB Dalvin Cook and the running game.

The Saints were good on the road this season, too, going 7-1 away from home. Should they beat the Vikings, visiting Lambeau Field shouldn’t strike any fear in the Saints.

(Photo Credit: Jim Brown – USA TODAY Sports)

As a team without a bye, the Saints got the better end of the playoff bracket, having to play the Packers in the divisional round instead of the 49ers. Granted, they’d visit the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game if both teams make it that far, but at least that won’t come in the second round.

Betting the house on New Orleans wouldn’t be a wise move because of the absence of a first-round bye, but you should feel good about laying down some money on the Saints to be the last team standing.

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Should you bet on the Buffalo Bills to win Super Bowl LIV?

Previewing the Buffalo Bills’ Super Bowl LIV chances, with NFL betting odds, picks, futures and best bets.

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AFC East teams besides the New England Patriots don’t typically make the playoffs. They certainly don’t usually go 10-6 or challenge New England for the division crown very often. Yet, that’s exactly what the Buffalo Bills did this season, giving the Patriots a run for their money in the AFC East and becoming just the third wild-card team from the division since 2011.

But do the Bills have a legitimate chance to win the Super Bowl? According to the oddsmakers, not really.

Buffalo Bills playoff futures

NFL futures odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Friday at 12:30 pm. ET.

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BetMGM has the Bills at +6000 to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February, the longest odds of any team in the playoffs. That’s the result of them having a young, inconsistent sophomore quarterback under center in Josh Allen, a tough matchup in the first round against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium, and a second-round date with either the Baltimore Ravens or Kansas City Chiefs if they were to advance to the Divisional Round.

New to sports betting? A $10 wager on the Bills to win Super Bowl LIV would return a profit of $600 should Buffalo win the Super Bowl.

Allen had a solid season. He threw 20 touchdown passes with only nine interceptions, rushing for another 510 yards and nine touchdowns, as well. However, he only completed 58.8% of his passes and his 5.71 adjusted net yards per attempt – a good measuring stick of a quarterback’s aggressiveness and success – ranked 23rd among qualified quarterbacks.

(Photo Credit: Rich Barnes – USA TODAY Sports)

The Bills defense is what helped carry them to the postseason, ranking second in points and third in yards allowed, but how many top offenses did they truly face? The Dallas Cowboys and Ravens were the only teams that really stand out offensively from Buffalo’s schedule, though it was impressive that they were held to a combined 39 points in consecutive weeks.

The Bills aren’t exactly coming into the postseason riding high, either. They lost three of their last four games, one of which was the season finale with Matt Barkley at quarterback. There isn’t much momentum behind the Bills heading into this wild-card matchup with the Texans, especially on offense. In the last three games that Allen completed, the Bills had fewer than 300 yards of offense in each, including fewer than 200 yards passing.

Why You Shouldn’t Bet On the Bills to win Super Bowl LIV

(Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire – USA TODAY Sports)

So that begs the question again: Should you bet on the Bills to win Super Bowl LIV? In short, no. Unless the Tennessee Titans go on a deep run, Buffalo will be on the road for the entire postseason run. Winning four straight games away from home is no easy task for any team, let alone one that faced only three playoff teams in the regular season – including a Philadelphia Eagles squad that barely got in.

Save your money and put it on a team like the Ravens, San Francisco 49ers or New Orleans Saints. The Seahawks at +2500 or the Patriots at +1200 are better bets than the Bills and still come with financial upside on a small wager.

So unless you just want to lay $10 down on a Bills Cinderella story, it’d be wise to pass on this wager.

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