The Super Bowl dreams are still alive for four teams, and those four teams have one thing in common: the last time they stood this close to the Super Bowl, most players taking the field this weekend weren’t yet in the league — and in some cases, even alive. San Francisco’s last Super Bowl was in 2013. Green Bay’s was 2011. Tennessee’s was 2000. Kansas City’s was 1970 before the AFL and NFL merged.
Two of those franchises will end their drought. Our championship week prop bets look at a key player from each team and breaks down how each can make you a winner.
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Bo Knows Derrick
The number keeps getting higher on Derrick Henry’s rushing yards — currently at 106.5 with -112 on both the over and the under — and for good reason. He has rushed for 149 or more yards in six of his last eight games, including games of 211, 182 and 195 in his last three and 188 when he played Kansas City in November. In that game, even if you took out his 68-yard touchdown run, he still ran 22 times for 120 yards. The Titans have fed him the ball 30 or more times in each of the last three games against defenses viewed as being better than that of the Chiefs. Barring a 20-point deficit in the first half, he will keep getting the rock. TAKE THE OVER.
The Road Less Travis-ed
Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is being given a pretty representative over/under number to get action on both sides at 78.5 yards (-112 on both the over and under). Since quarterback Patrick Mahomes returned from injury, Kelce has caught seven or more passes in six of eight games, including catching seven passes for 75 yards against the Titans in Week 10. Tennessee is likely going to double Tyreek Hill more often than not in an effort to prevent the huge play over the top. Enter Kelce and death by paper cut. By the time the Texans doubled Kelce in the second half of their game last week, it was too late. He caught 10 passes for 134 yards and three touchdowns. He likely won’t hit that number, but eight catches for 80+ yards isn’t out of the question. TAKE THE OVER.
The Adams Family
The Packers don’t hide the fact that Davante Adams is the main man in their pass offense — and whoever the No. 2 guy happens to be that week isn’t even close. He has a big over/under receiving yardage number of 84.5 (-112 on both), but there are two factors that come into play. Green Bay needed to win each of their last four games to hold their spot as the No. 2 seed in the NFC. In those games, Adams had yardage totals of 103, 116, 93 and 160. The case against Adams is that Richard Sherman will likely be chasing him around wherever he lines up come this Sunday. But if the 49ers open up a big lead (they’re favored by 7.5 points) Rodgers will have nothing to lose to keep throwing. Even if it covers in garbage time, that’s fine. TAKE THE OVER.
The World According to Jim
The over/under on passing yards for Jimmy Garoppolo is 248.5 (-112 on both). It’s a solid number because he has exceeded that number in five of his last 10 games — and finished with 248 in two others. But two things play in against him hitting the over. Green Bay’s pass rush won’t let him have all day to throw. They will dial up the heat and get the ball out of his hands. More importantly, the closer teams get to the Super Bowl, the more conservative most of them get. Last week, the three-headed 49ers backfield combined to rush 42 times. If they get a big lead, which many in Vegas are projecting, they will take the air out of the ball to shorten the game and pound the rock until Green Bay stops it. TAKE THE UNDER.
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