Tag: NFL projected stats

Over/Under: Projecting Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen’s stats

Projecting Josh Allen’s 2020 passing statistics and how they match up with the over/under betting odds.

Looking forward to the 2020 NFL season, it’s time to start breaking down how individual players will do statistically. Today we focus on Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen’s projected passing numbers and how they match up against future odds at BetMGM sportsbook.

Josh Allen’s stats history

Allen will be entering his third season in the league. After a rookie campaign with 2,074 passing yards, 10 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions, he played much better in 2019, leading the Bills to the postseason. He finished his sophomore season with 3,089 passing yards, 20 TD passes and nine interceptions. With talented WR Stefon Diggs and recently-drafted RB Zach Moss, the Bills’ third-round pick, being added in the offseason, Allen should be able to build on those numbers.

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Josh Allen’s projected stats and odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Odds last updated Monday, April 27 at 1:20 a.m. ET.

Passing Yards: 3,349.5 / OVER: -110 / UNDER: -110

Passing Touchdowns: 20.5 / OVER: -125 / UNDER: +105

Looking ahead to 2020, Allen should see a bump in production. The Bills have more talent on offense, especially with Diggs. Passing for 3,349.5 yards would only rank 19th last season. That is a reasonable expectation for Allen in 2020. Throwing more than 20 touchdowns would put him in the top 20 last season. BET THE OVERS ON BOTH PROPS.

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Over/Under: Projecting Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson’s stats

Projecting Lamar Jackson’s 2020 passing statistics and how they match up with the over/under betting odds.

Looking forward to the 2020 NFL season, it’s time to start breaking down how individual players will do statistically. Today we focus on Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson‘s projected passing numbers and how they match up against future odds at BetMGM sportsbook.

Lamar Jackson’s stats history

Jackson was the league’s unanimous MVP in 2019, his second season in the pros. He went 13-2 as a starter, passing for 3,127 yards with a league-high 36 touchdowns with only six interceptions. He also rushed for 1,206 yards with seven TDs.

The Ravens offense is built around the rushing attack, but as Jackson enters his third season, he should see an increase in passing yards.

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Lamar Jackson’s projected stats and odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Odds last updated Tuesday, April 21 at 3:30 a.m. ET.

Passing Yards: 3,249.5 / OVER: -110 / UNDER: -110

Passing Touchdowns: 26.5 / OVER: -110 / UNDER: -110

Jackson was only 22nd in the league in passing yards. If we are to assume he will continue to develop as a quarterback, he’ll be expected to pass for more yards than last season. Twenty quarterbacks had at least 3,250 passing yards in 2019. Can we expect the league MVP to be in the top 20 in passing? Certainly. Take OVER 3,249.5 (-110) on Jackson’s passing yards as he takes another step forward as a passing QB. As for touchdown passes, seven quarterbacks had at least 27 last season. Jackson might not match the 36 he had in 2019, but he should toss more than 26. Take OVER 26.5 (-110) on TD passes as well.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Over/Under: Projecting New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees’ stats

Projecting Drew Brees’ 2020 passing statistics and how they match up with the over/under betting odds.

Looking forward to the 2020 NFL season, it’s time to start breaking down how individual players will do statistically. Today we focus on New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees’ projected passing numbers and how they match up against future odds at BetMGM sportsbook.

Drew Brees’ stats history

Brees is the most prolific and accurate passer in history. He holds the NFL career record for passing yards (77,416) and touchdown passes (547). He had 12 straight seasons of more than 4,000 passing yards (2006-’17), five times eclipsing 5,000-plus yards. However, he threw for less than 4,000 yards the last two seasons as he missed one game in 2018 and five games with a thumb injury last year. His per-game averages would have given him more than 4,250 yards each season if he had played in all 16.

Brees also recorded nine straight seasons with at least 30 touchdown passes from 2008-’16, but failed to reach that many two of the last three seasons.

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Drew Brees’ projected stats and odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Odds last updated Monday, April 20 at 1 a.m. ET.

Passing Yards: 4099.5 / OVER: -110 / UNDER: -110

Passing Touchdowns: 30.5 / OVER: -110 / UNDER: -110

The key for the 41-year-old Brees’ numbers will be his health. Last season was the first year he missed more than one game since 2003, so he has a history of durability. He has one of the best receivers in football in Michael Thomas, plus the Saints signed free agent WR Emmanuel Sanders. Passing yards should be in abundance again. However, with a running back like Alvin Kamara in goal-to-go situations, it is much more likely the Saints will run the ball. Plus, even with his fantastic numbers, it became clear that Brees’ arm is not what it was. To reach 4,100 passing yards, he will only have to average just a little more than 256 yards per game, lower than any per-game average for Brees since 2005. Even if he misses a game, he would only have to average 273.3 yards per game. For his passing yards, take the OVER.

Touchdown passes are another thing completely. He only had 27 in 2019, but that was in 11 games. Looking at that and his history, you have to also take the OVER for touchdown passes.

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Over/Under: Projecting Philadelphia Eagles QB Carson Wentz’s stats

Projecting Carson Wentz’s 2020 passing statistics and how they match up with the over/under betting odds.

Looking forward to the 2020 NFL season, it’s time to start breaking down how individual players will do statistically. Today we focus on Philadelphia Eagles QB Carson Wentz‘s projected passing numbers and how they match up against future odds at BetMGM sportsbook.

Carson Wentz’s stats history

Wentz made it through all 16 games last season for the first time since his rookie campaign of 2016, and he led the Eagles to the NFC East Division title. He ended up completing 63.9 percent of his passes for a career-high 4,039 yards with 27 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He also was sacked a career-high 37 times last season, and his 93.1 QB Rating was his lowest since 2016. On the ground, he rushed for 243 yards (3.9 yards per attempt) with one TD.

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Carson Wentz’s projected stats and odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list.  Lines last updated Saturday, April 18 at 5:10 a.m. E.T.

Passing Yards: 3,899.5 / OVER: -110 / UNDER: -110

Passing Touchdowns: 26.5 / OVER: -120 / UNDER: +100

It’s risky to bet the over on Wentz, only because he has made it through all 16 games just twice in his four-year NFL career. The good news for Wentz is that he has a decent stable of pass catchers in WRs Desean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery and TE Zach Ertz. After that, however, the receiving corps is a little questionable, so Wentz’s production is also connected to D-Jax, Jeffery and Ertz staying healthy. The Eagles figure to have a strong run game with RBs Miles Sanders and Boston Scott, too. If Philly’s offense is a little more balanced, it will hurt Wentz and his potential to go “Over” in passing yardage. Look at it this way, he has eclipsed the target yardage total just once in four NFL seasons. He also has managed to hit 27 or more touchdown passes just twice in his career, and he barely inched over the line last season. Bet the UNDER on both props.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Over/Under: Projecting New York Jets QB Sam Darnold’s stats

Projecting Sam Darnold’s 2020 passing statistics and how they match up with the over/under betting odds.

Looking forward to the 2020 NFL season, it’s time to start breaking down how individual players will do statistically. Below, we focus on New York Jets QB Sam Darnold’s projected passing numbers and how they match up against future odds at BetMGM sportsbook.

Sam Darnold’s stats history

Darnold, the third overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft, has been limited to just 13 games in each of his first two seasons. He owns a career completion percentage of 59.9, and he threw for a career-high 3,024 passing yards in 2019 with 19 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.

Darnold is just 11-15 as a starter entering his third season and the Jets have lost all six games without him under center. The soon-to-be 23-year-old showed some modest improvements last season in his first campaign under head coach Adam Gase, but durability and health are now big questions.

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Sam Darnold’s projected stats and odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Odds last updated Saturday, April 18 at 12:50 p.m. ET.

Passing Yards: 3,529.5 / OVER: -110 / UNDER: -110

As of the time of this posting, there was no projection for Darnold’s 2020 touchdown total.

Darnold would have eclipsed this yardage number if he had been able to play all 16 games in 2019. His 232.6 yards per game had him on pace for 3,721.6 yards as a sophomore.

The free-agent loss of speedy deep-threat WR Robby Anderson, who ranked first or second on the team in receiving yards each of the last three years, will hurt his production. The Jets are equipped with the 11th overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft, where they are fully expected to target and land one of the top available receivers in CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy or Henry Ruggs III.

Take the OVER (-110) on a relatively modest production for the third-year starter. The addition of a top rookie wideout, to go along with Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman, Quincy Enunwa and RB Le’Veon Bell, and a 16-game season will result in a career year.

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Over/Under: Projecting Indianpolis Colts QB Philip Rivers’ stats

Projecting Philip Rivers’ 2020 passing statistics and how they match up with the over/under betting odds.

Looking forward to the 2020 NFL season, it’s time to start breaking down how individual players will do statistically. Today we focus on Indianapolis Colts QB Philip Rivers’ projected passing numbers and how they match up against future odds at BetMGM sportsbook.

Philip Rivers’ stats history

Rivers is one of the most consistently productive passers in the NFL. He hasn’t missed a start since he took the reins in 2006. He has had at least 4,200 passing yards in all but one season since 2009 and has had fewer than 4,300 only three times in those 11 seasons. He now will play his first season with the Colts after 16 with the San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers.

Many will say his play has diminished, as threw 20 interceptions in 2019 and for only 23 touchdown passes, his lowest total since 2007.

That said, playing for coaches he knows – as some on the Indy staff used to coach for the Chargers – there is no reason to believe he will significantly decline in his production, especially considering his durability.

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Philip Rivers’ projected stats and odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday, April 18 at 12:25 a.m. E.T.

Passing Yards: 4,199.5 / OVER: -110 / UNDER: -110

At the time of this publishing, there is no line for Rivers’ total touchdown passes, so this is a very easy bet to make. Take the OVER and run with it without looking back. Colts QB Andrew Luck, who retired in the offseason, threw for more than 4,500 passing yards in 2018 with Frank Reich as head coach. Rivers is significantly better than Jacoby Brissett, who started 15 games in 2019. Rivers passing for at least 4,200 yards is all but a lock in 2020.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Over/Under: Projecting New York Giants QB Daniel Jones’ stats

Projecting Daniel Jones’ 2020 passing statistics and how they match up with the over/under betting odds.

Looking forward to the 2020 NFL season, it’s time to start breaking down how individual players will do statistically. Today we focus on New York Giants QB Daniel Jones‘ projected passing numbers and how they match up against future odds at BetMGM sportsbook.

Daniel Jones’ stats history

Jones took over as the starter for Big Blue last season, pushing two-time Super Bowl champ and MVP Eli Manning out to pasture. This is Jones’ team now, and he should take a big step forward. In 13 games during his rookie season, Jones completed 284 of 459 passes (61.9 percent) for 3,027 yards, 24 touchdowns and 12 interceptions with an 87.7 QB Rating. He was sacked 38 times and fumbled 18 times while also running for 279 yards and a pair of scores.

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Daniel Jones’ projected stats and odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list.  Lines last updated Friday, April 17 at 4:15 p.m. E.T.

Passing Yards: 3,799.5 / OVER: -110 / UNDER: -110

Passing Touchdowns: 26.5 / OVER: +105 / UNDER: -125

It’s hard to envision Jones taking any sort of a step back in Season No. 2. If you project out his rookie numbers over a 16-game season, he goes OVER, or comes close to going OVER, in passing yards and passing TDs. If the offensive line can keep him upright, and his mobility helps that quite a bit, too, he should flirt with 4,000 passing yards and 30 TD passes. Remember, he has the dynamic RB Saquon Barkley to dump the ball off to, and he’ll get his share of receiving yardage and scores. When Barkley played a full season in 2018, he had 721 receiving yards and four touchdowns through the air. The G-Men brought back WR Golden Tate to buoy the receiving corps, WR Sterling Shepard is showing signs of improving and WR Darius Slayton could be a useful third receiver with some upside. The future looks bright for Jones. Bet the OVER on both props.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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