Assessing 2020 NFL Draft odds centered around which position the Indianapolis Colts will draft first.
The Indianapolis Colts have been movers and shakers this offseason ahead of the 2020 NFL Draft. One of the major moves they made was trading the 13th overall pick to the San Francisco 49ers for DeForest Buckner, which makes their No. 34 overall selection on Day 2 their first pick of the draft. Let’s handicap BetMGM’s odds of which position the Colts will be drafting with their first pick:
2020 NFL Draft: Which position will the Colts draft first? Odds
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Odds last updated Friday, April 24 at 3:15 p.m. ET.
| POSITION |
ODDS |
| Wide receiver |
+140 |
| Defensive lineman |
+500 |
| Quarterback |
+500 |
| Safety |
+700 |
| Running back |
+900 |
| Offensive lineman |
+900 |
| Cornerback |
+1000 |
| Linebacker |
+1200 |
| Tight End |
+2500 |
| Kicker/punter/long snapper |
+15000 |
2020 NFL Draft: Which position will the Colts draft first? Best bets
Defensive lineman (+500)
Despite the Colts acquiring Buckner this offseason, the value of +500 for Indianapolis to draft a defensive lineman with their first draft pick is too enticing.
The addition of Buckner alone probably won’t lead to a major swing in defensive line performance. In 2019, they were 21st in QB pressure percentage, and, according to Football Outsiders, they were 15th in adjusted line yards and 21st in adjusted sack rate.
Also, defensive linemen didn’t get much love on the first night of the NFL draft, leaving a whole bunch on draft gurus’ best available lists. Only four were drafted in the first round and two of them are technically EDGE rushers that can be used as outside linebackers in 3-4 schemes.
DraftWire editor Luke Easterling’s best available players for Day 2 include defensive line prospects A.J. Epenesa, Yetur Gross-Matos and Ross Blacklock. These guys have first-round talent but are still available and should make it tough for the Colts to pass up on adding depth to a weak spot on their roster.
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Safety (+700)
No safety was drafted in the first round last night (the first time that’s happened since 2016, (even though Ha Ha Clinton-Dix has since been converted to a safety), leaving top-graded prospects Xavier McKinney and Grant Delpit available. But, why do the Colts really need a safety?
First, their pass defense was bad last year. The Colts allowed the 10th-most passing yards and ninth-most passing touchdowns while ranking 26th in opposing quarterbacks’ QB rating. They were second-to-last in opposing quarterbacks’ completion percentage.
Second, they addressed cornerback early in the 2019 NFL Draft by selecting Rock Ya-Sin 34th overall and by signing free agent Xavier Rhodes this offseason. Malik Hooker has been a starting safety for the Colts since they drafted him 15th overall in 2017 and has never lived up to his potential.
Hooker hasn’t played all 16 games in any of his first three seasons and was downright awful last season. Pro Football Focus graded him 37th out of 87 safeties. Furthermore, Hooker gave up the most yards per target in the NFL, 76% of targeted throws were completed against him and quarterbacks had a 123.7 QB rating when targeting Hooker.
Safety is a position the Colts should address, and with the best safety prospects still on the board, gimme +700 Indy will take a safety at No. 37.
Quarterback (+500)
The elephant in the Colts’ quarterback room is that neither Philip Rivers nor Jacoby Brissett is a long-term answer as the franchise quarterback. Rivers was inked to a one-year, $25 million deal this offseason and will turn 39 this season. Brissett signed a two-year deal last offseason after Andrew Luck‘s abrupt retirement and didn’t exactly wow people with his 2019 performance.
I love the value of this prop given the Colts’ circumstances, however, I only LEAN toward +500 Indy takes a quarterback first because there are too many good prospects at positions of need and the remaining quarterbacks—Jalen Hurts, Jacob Eason and Jake Fromm—should be available for the Colts’ next pick at No. 44 or in the following rounds.
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