Tag: NFL betting odds lines picks and predictions

Betting the NFL Line: Week 10

The smartest wagers from around the NFL entering Week 10.

Week 10 in the NFL could be a big week for home cookin’. Of the 14 games on the schedule, only three road teams are favored – two because they’re playing the hapless Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Dallas Cowboys on the road against the reeling Green Bay Packers, who have lost five straight.

This may be the biggest week of the season to date to focus on the point spread, because that’s where the best bets are going to be found.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook

NFL Betting Odds and Lines: Week 10

Atlanta Falcons (-140) at Carolina Panthers (+117)

The Falcons somehow find themselves in first place in this brutal division, so it makes sense that they a mild road favorite (2.5 points at -120 Falcons, +100 Panthers). It’s not that I have any faith whatsoever in the Falcons, I just have less faith in the Panthers. Take the Falcons and lay 2.5 points (-120).

Seattle Seahawks (+120) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-150)

The Seahawks are one of the most surprising teams in the NFL this season, and the Buccaneers are a very modest favorite playing in Munich (2.5 points at -120 Buccaneers, -101 Seahawks). I still have a hard time laying off the Bucs as being done, because I believe they have the talent to flip the switch and roll off four or five straight wins when they’re right. Geno Smith takes a beating, and the Bucs try to get things moving in the right direction. Take the Buccaneers and lay 2.5 points (-120).

Minnesota Vikings (+160) at Buffalo Bills (-200)

A week ago, Buffalo was an early 9.5-point favorite. With news of Josh Allen‘s elbow injury it has dropped like a rock (3.5 points at -110 for both teams). If Allen can’t go, backup Case Keenum is reunited with Stefon Diggs against the team in which they performed the Minneapolis Miracle. The Bills will miss Allen is he doesn’t play, but I would still have the spread closer to 7 points than 3.5. Take the Bills and lay 3.5 points (-110).

New Orleans Saints (-130) at Pittsburgh Steelers (+105)

Neither offense has been able to consistently move the ball, which explains the low Over/Under (40.5 points at -105 Over, -115 Under). I’m convinced this number will rise a point or two before game time, which is fine by me because I think the first team to 20 wins. Take the Under (-115).

Detroit Lions (+120) at Chicago Bears (-150)

The Bears are a much different team since they’ve opted to let Justin Fields run more, but O/U is too high (48.5 points at -110 for both Over and Under). Both teams have shaky pass offenses and not a ton of big-play guys, so I see running as being the primary way of moving the ball. Two or three field goals at the end of long drives makes this number really hard to hit. Take the Under (-110).

Cleveland Browns (+150) at Miami Dolphins (-190)

The Browns are coming off their bye, and Miami’s offense is posting gaudy numbers. The Over/Under here is the same point as the Lions-Bears game (48.5 points at -110 for both). Both teams are capable of putting points on the board and neither tends to let up if an opposing defense can’t stop what they’re doing. Take the Over (-110).

Houston Texans (+180) at New York Giants (-230)

I’ve been on record that I believe the success the Giants have had is not sustainable. They’re a solid favorite (5 points at -110 for both teams). It’s showing respect for a team at home against one of the league dregs. While you won’t catch me on the G-Men bandwagon, I’m hopping a ride this week. Take the Giants and lay 5 points (-110).

Jacksonville Jaguars (+330) at Kansas City Chiefs (-450)

This game features the highest Over/Under of any game on the Week 10 slate (50.5 points at -110 Over, -110 Under). The biggest problem I have here is that I’m not convinced the Jaguars can score more than 17 points and their defense is good enough to keep the Chiefs to 35 or less. Take the Under (-110).

Denver Broncos (+115) at Tennessee Titans (-140)

While I’m intrigued by the pee-wee Over/Under on this one (37 points), I’m more interested in the Titans being less than a touchdown favorite (2.5 points at -105 Broncos, -115 Titans). This has the cliche “trap game” written all over it – Broncos coming off their bye and Titans coming off a tough loss on Sunday night to the Chiefs. Tennessee has been underestimated all year. If Ryan Tannehill is back, the offense can be two-dimensional, which allows Derrick Henry to do his thing. Take the Titans and lay 2.5 points (-115).

Indianapolis Colts (+205) at Las Vegas Raiders (-260)

The Colts are in disarray, which helps explain why the Raiders are such a big favorite (6 points at -115 Colts, -105 Raiders). The Colts set the standard when they “sucked for Luck” and threw a QB to the wolves for an entire season to get a QB in the draft. I think we’re witnessing S4L 2.0 with their recent decisions. Take the Raiders and lay 6 points (-105).

Dallas Cowboys (-240) at Green Bay Packers (+190)

The Cowboys are 6-2 Against the Spread, which means they beat the teams they’re supposed by the amount they should. The Packers are again a big underdog (5 points at -110 Cowboys, -110 Packers). Green Bay has struggled against marginal defenses. The Cowboys are rested coming off their bye week and not intimidated by Lambeau Field, much less for a host on a five-game losing streak. The conventional wisdom is that the Packers will find a way. If they can’t do it against the Commanders or Lions, what makes you think Dallas will lay an egg? Take the Cowboys and lay 5 points (-110).

Arizona Cardinals (off) at Los Angeles Rams (off)

Both teams are extremely banged up and a lot of big-time players didn’t practice Wednesday. That can help explain why the Over/Under is so low (41.5 points at -110 for both). Seeing as neither team has been able to run consistently or effectively, I see too many passes being thrown to keep this one that low scoring. Take the Over (-110).

Los Angeles Chargers(+245) at San Francisco 49ers (-320)

The 49ers are a big favorite because the Chargers are so unpredictable from week to week. However, the Over/Under is interesting (45 points at -115 Over, -105 Under). The 49ers at their best control the clock and force teams to play their style. Justin Herbert will get his, but this has the feel of a 23-20 type game with as many or more field goals than touchdowns. Take the Under (-105).

Washington Commanders (+360) at Philadelphia Eagles (-500)

The last time the Eagles were huge home primetime favorites, they dominated but took their foot off the gas long enough not to cover. They’re big favorites again (10.5 points at -108 Commanders, -112 Eagles). Against a division rival on its backup QB, if there’s blood in the water, the Eagles should attack. Take the Eagles and lay 10.5 points (-112).

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Betting the NFL Line: Week 9

Wagers to make from across the NFL’s Week 9.

The NFL trade deadline has changed the landscape as new players of some repute are getting fast-tracked on a sub-package of an offense it will take them a month to fully learn.

Will the big faces in new places make a difference? Probably not in a big way this week, but, by next week, plans will be in place to expand that player’s role in an offense or defense to start cashing in on the trade deadline investment.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook

NFL Betting Odds and Lines: Week 9

Philadelphia Eagles (-800) at Houston Texans (+560)

This is a tough bet to make because the Eagles are such gigantic favorites (13.5 points at -115 Eagles, -105 Texans). Houston is brutal, but have only been beaten by enough to meet this number once. That said, the Eagles are bullies, and the Texans are schoolyard fodder. Take the Eagles and lay 13.5 points (-115).

Los Angeles Chargers (-175) at Atlanta Falcons (+140)

This has the stink of a classic “trap game.” The Chargers are capable of being trucked (see their losses to Jacksonville and Seattle). With their roster, I’m shocked the Falcons aren’t in line for the first pick in the 2023 draft – yet they’re alone in first place in the NFC South. The Chargers are tight road favorites (3.5 points at -103 Chargers, -117 Falcons). They’re daring you to bet on the Chargers. I’m getting my Kool-Aid glass out again. Take the Chargers and lay 3.5 points (-103).

Indianapolis Colts (+195) at New England Patriots (-250)

I’m not a fan of either team, where backup quarterbacks are king. It’s not exactly a classic Brady-Manning matchup this time around, but I’m a sucker for an Over/Under too low (39 points at -112 Over, -108 Under). With two young QBs looking to prove themselves, all you need is one tragic mistake for a defensive TD or a short field to hit this pee-wee number. Take the Over (-112).

Buffalo Bills (-650) at New York Jets (+440)

The Bills laid down and beat Aaron Rodgers by 10. I hate massive spreads, and this one is big (12.5 points at -108 Bills, -112 Jets). I just can’t find a bet among the three offered to go away from Buffalo. I guess that makes me an associate of the Bills Mafia. Take the Bills and lay 12.5 points (-108).

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Carolina Panthers (+280) at Cincinnati Bengals (-370)

The Panthers’ fire sale for the future is in its infancy. The Bengals were humbled Monday night. Two teams with shockingly different expectations for 2022, the Bengals are strong road favorites (7.5 points at -117 Panthers, -103 Bengals). This line is daring you to take the Bengals. I don’t believe it will drop below seven points. It shouldn’t. Enjoy the low number for what should be a relatively achievable number. Take the Bengals and lay 7.5 points (-103).

Minnesota Vikings (-180) at Washington Commanders (+145)

The Vikings are 6-1 and the masters of one-score games (five straight and all wins). The Commanders have won three straight but remain home underdogs (3.5 points at -103 Vikings, -117 Commanders). Minnesota has allowed teams to hang with them, but put them away in the end. That trend continues. Take the Vikings and lay 3.5 points (-103).

Miami Dolphins (-220) at Chicago Bears (+175)

The Dolphins were buyers at the trade deadline. The Bears were sellers who gutted the defense with the move of Roquan Smith. Miami is a solid road favorite (4.5 points at -110 for both teams). The additions both teams made likely won’t make a big impact. Smith being gone much more than likely will. Take the Dolphins and lay 4.5 points (-110).

Las Vegas Raiders (-130) at Jacksonville Jaguars (+105)

Both teams have won just two games, and they’ve already dug holes deep enough to torpedo their current seasons. The Jaguars have talent on defense, but the Raiders have the better roster. The Raiders are modest road favorites (2 points at -112 Raiders, -108 Jaguars). Unless that Jags can stop Josh Jacobs, I’m willing to give away less than a field goal. Take the Raiders and lay 2 points (-112).

Green Bay Packers (-200) at Detroit Lions (+160)

The Packers are reeling and could implode with a loss here. Detroit’s defense is so awful that the Packers can likely slide as a mild road favorite (3.5 points at -112 Packers, -108 Lions). With the Dallas, Tennessee and Philadelphia coming up on Green Bay’s schedule after this one, this is the must-win the Packers need to remain afloat. Take the Packers and lay 3.5 points (-112).

Seattle Seahawks (+105) at Arizona Cardinals (-130)

The Seahawks are alone atop the NFC West that they were universally projected to finish last. I’m still not buying. The Cardinals are an embarrassingly low home favorite (2 points at -110 for both teams). The Cardinals at home is hard to lay off. Take the Cardinals and lay 2 points (-110).

Los Angeles Rams (+120) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-150)

When you’ve been shocked by the ineptitude of the presumptive top two candidates to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, you have one out on making a pick – the Over/Under (42.5 points -112 Over, -108 Under). Both defenses are capable of shutting the other down. Both offenses have the yet-to-be-consistent ability to put up point. This O/U number is simply too low. Take the Over (-112).

Tennessee Titans (+440) at Kansas City Chiefs (-650)

I hate this point spread (12.5 points for -110 Titans and Chiefs). If Derrick Henry can control the pace of play, this number is way to high. If the Titans fall behind by double digits in the first half, they won’t have an answer. I see the latter happening. Take the Chiefs and lay 12.5 points (-110)

Baltimore Ravens (-140) at New Orleans Saints (+115)

If not for implosion, the Ravens should be 7-1, at worst. They’re legit. The Saints are a different team at home, which is why the Ravens are mild favorites (3 points at -101 Ravens, -120 Saints). The Saints defense isn’t ready for what Lamar Jackson brings to aggressive attacking fronts. Take the Ravens and lay 3 points (-101).

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Betting the NFL Line: Week 8

Make these wagers to win money in Week 8.

We have a couple of potential firsts in a long time coming at the beginning and end of Week 8 that are worth noting – one that has come to pass and one that was avoided at the 11th hour.

The first comes Thursday night when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Baltimore Ravens. The last time a Tom Brady-led team was a home underdog was Nov. 30, 2014 when Brady and the New England Patriots were a 3-point home dog to the Green Bay Packers. As of Tuesday, the Bucs were a home dog. That triggered enough Brady money coming in to flip the script and keep his streak intact.

Speaking of the Packers, in games Aaron Rodgers has started, the Packers have never been a double-digit underdog. They are this week against the Buffalo Bills, who are at home coming off their bye week.

Never say never in the NFL, because things you thought you would never see sometimes happen – or being avoided shortly before game time.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook

NFL Betting Odds and Lines: Week 8

Baltimore Ravens (-101) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-117)

I think those making the lines had it right earlier in the week. The Ravens opened as a 1.5 favorite, and now it’s the Bucs that are favored by 1.5 points. I’m a believer that your first instinct is your best instinct. Take the Ravens on the moneyline (-101).

Denver Broncos (+120) at Jacksonville Jaguars (-145)

Russell Wilson is apparently ready to show another continent his descent into mediocrity. The Broncos defense is very good, which should limit the Jaguars’ ability to pop points. The Over/Under is one two games under 40 points (39.5 points at -112 Over, -108 Under) on the Week 8 slate. Jet lag plus two defenses better than two offenses barks loud. Take the Under (-108).

Chicago Bears (+360) at Dallas Cowboys (-500)

The Bears found a Patriots defense that they stunned Monday night. On a short week on the road again, the Cowboys are legitimate favorites (9.5 points at -110 for both). By the time the game comes around, it’s going to be double digits – for a reason. Take the Cowboys and lay 9.5 points (-110).

Arizona Cardinals (+150) at Minnesota Vikings (-190)

I’m not unconvinced the Cardinals win this game, much less being a fallback cushion (3.5 points at -110 for both the Cardinals and Vikings). What Arizona does well on offense is a defensive weakness for the Vikings. Take the Cardinals plus 3.5 points (-110).

Miami Dolphins (-190) at Detroit Lions (+150)

The Dolphins are shown a little Over/Under respect for being on the road (3.5 points at -110 for both). Detroit’s defense has no answer for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Take the Dolphins and lay 3.5 points (-110).

New England Patriots (-135) at New York Jets (+100)

Last year in the battle of rookie QBs, Bill Belichick piled on. In two games, the Patriots outscored the Jets 79-19 – never letting their foot off the gas. As a result, the Pats are a road favorite (2.5 points). Buffalo has given them a receipt. Miami did in Week 1. The Jets aren’t the little brother anymore, and the Patriots have no business being favored. Take the Jets on the moneyline (+100).

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Pittsburgh Steelers (+370) at Philadelphia Eagles (-500)

Much like the Jets being the Patriots’ little brother, the Steelers have clear bragging rights in Pennsylvania. But this is 2022, and the tables have turned. The Eagles are heavy favorites (10.5 points at -112 Steelers, -108 Eagles). This has beatdown potential for an Eagles team coming off their bye week rested and ready. Take the Eagles and lay 10.5 points (-108).

Carolina Panthers (+175) at Atlanta Falcons (-220)

A Friends and Relatives Only (FRO) game, all I can say is strongly dislike both teams. The Over/Under is low (41.5 points at -105 Over, -115 Under). I have a hard time figuring either of these offense putting up 30 points, which will likely be necessary. Take the Under (-115).

Las Vegas Raiders (-125) at New Orleans Saints (+102)

The Saints have fallen to being home dogs against a team that is 0-3 on the road. The Raiders are modest favorites (1.5 points at -115 Raiders, -105 Saints). Josh Jacobs is the hottest back in the league and it continues here. Take the Raiders and lay 1.5 points (-115).

Tennessee Titans (-130) at Houston Texans (+105)

The Titans have won four straight but remain peewee road favorites (2.5 points at -108 Titans, -112 Texans). Tennessee was the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and the Texans remain a dumpster fire that is easily controlled. If Derrick Henry gets 30 carries again this week, the win should be by double digits. Take the Titans and lay 2.5 points (-108).

San Francisco 49ers (117) at Los Angeles Rams (103)

The 49ers are built to beat the teams in the NFC West. The others historically throw the ball and get off the field in a hurry. The 49ers beat the Rams consistently, which may explain why explains coming off a loss and the Rams coming off a bye the Niners are favored (1.5 points at -117 49ers, -103 Rams). It’s for a reason. Take the 49ers and lay 1.5 points (-117).

Washington Commanders (+100) at Indianapolis Colts (-125)

Not a betting fan of either team … I see more punts than scoring chances, so the very low Over/Under (39.5 points at -105 Over, -112 Under) doesn’t seem low enough. Take the Under of 39.5 points (-112).

New York Giants (+125) at Seattle Seahawks (-155)

Last week, the then 5-1 Giants were road dogs against the Jaguars and took care of business – adding road wins to those against Tennessee and Green Bay. I’ve been burned by Seattle before, but I’m willing to risk the biscuit again. Take the Giants on the moneyline (+125).

Green Bay Packers (+360) at Buffalo Bills (-500)

I’ve been clear that I’m on the Bills bandwagon, and they’re a huge favorite (11.5 points at -110 for both). The Packers are in disarray not seen in a tick, and Buffalo is coming its bye ready to kick some tail. This smells like a primetime statement to the rest of AFC. Take the Bills, swallow hard, and lay the 11.5 points (-110).

Cincinnati Bengals (-190) at Cleveland Browns (+150)

The Bengals are trying to find themselves and are solid divisional road favorites (3.5 points at -108 Bengals, -112 Browns). With some reservations, take the Bengals and lay 3.5 points (-108).

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Betting the NFL Line: Week 7

The smartest Week 7 wagers from around the NFL.

Week 6 was one the strangest week of the season, and many bettors took it on the chin. As a general rule, gamblers like taking favorites and are hoping for a lot of scoring. That hasn’t been the tone all season – defenses have been playing better than offenses, and the quarterback situation has been bleak.

Week 6 had 14 games. Of those, 10 of them went under the projected point total and six underdogs won outright. You won’t see that again very often, but it has opened the eyes to the possibility of Week 6 happening again somewhere down the line.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook

NFL Betting Odds and Lines: Week 7

New Orleans Saints (+115) at Arizona Cardinals (-135)

Arizona has been one of the more disappointing teams this season, which explains why they’re so slightly favored (2.5 points at +105 Saints, -115 Cardinals). The Cardinals offense has struggled badly but is due for a big game. It comes this week. Take the Cardinals and lay 2.5 points (-115).

Cleveland Browns (+210) at Baltimore Ravens (-260)

Both teams are coming off upset losses and need a win in a mediocre division (by record anyway). The Over/Under is a little high for two teams that prefer to run (45.5 points at -110 for both Over and Under). This game has the feel of a tight-to-the-vest divisional game, because of its importance in the standings, where risks are minimized and field goals are as important as touchdowns. Take the Under (-110).

Atlanta Falcons (+220) at Cincinnati Bengals (-270)

Both teams are a surprise 3-3 – the Bengals for the worse and the Falcons for the better. Cincinnati is big a favorite (6.5 points at -112 Falcons, -108 Bengals). I’m not a believer in Atlanta and believe the Bengals are better on both sides of the ball. Take the Bengals and lay the 6.5 points (-112).

Green Bay Packers (-230) at Washington Commanders (+190)

The Packers have won 13 games each of the last three seasons but will have to win 10 of the final 11 games to repeat that feat. The Packers are a moderate road favorite (4.5 points at -112 Packers, -108 Commanders). The Packers won’t lose three straight and will come after the Commanders early to set the tempo. Take the Packers and lay 4.5 points (-112).

Indianapolis Colts (+120) at Tennessee Titans (-140)

The Titans are coming off their bye and are an extremely small home favorite (2.5 points at -101 Colts, -120 Titans). I don’t have much faith at all in the Colts being able to string together wins. Jonathan Taylor is back in practice, but the Titans are rested and at home. Take the Titans and lay 2.5 points (-120).

New York Giants (+135) at Jacksonville Jaguars (-160)

The Giants are 5-1 but are still and a road underdog against the Jaguars (3.5 points at -130 Giants, +105 Jaguars). While I am more impressed with the Jags than most, I’m not willing to lay those points against a team that has beaten the Packers and Ravens the last two weeks – both better teams than Jacksonville. Take the Giants plus 3.5 (-130).

Detroit Lions (+260) at Dallas Cowboys (-320)

Dak Prescott is expected back, but the Cowboys have morphed into a different team in his absence. It would appear the oddsmakers are expecting a shootout given the Over/Under (48.5 points at -108 Over, -105 Under). I’m not convinced Detroit will score more than 17 points against the Cowboys defense and Prescott is shaking off rust. Take the Under (-105).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-500) at Carolina Panthers (+360)

The Buccaneers have lost three of their last four games but are heavy road favorites (10.5 points at -110 for both teams). That said, the Panthers have lost their last three games by 10, 22 and 14 points and are currently entertaining a fire sale before the trade deadline. Take the Buccaneers and lay 10.5 points (-110).

Houston Texans (+260) at Las Vegas Raiders (-320)

The Raiders were a playoff team last year but are fighting for their lives in 2022. They’re a solid favorite (6.5 points at -101 Texans, -120 Raiders). When they had to win to avoid being 0-4 and down-and-out, they won. To avoid going 1-5 and facing a similar fate, they win again. Take the Raiders and lay 6.5 points (-120).

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New York Jets (-101) at Denver Broncos (-117)

The Jets are one of the feel-good stories of the season, and Russell Wilson has been a dumpster fire. The Broncos are the slightest of home favorites (1.5 points at -112 Jets, -108 Broncos). Every game the Broncos have played this year has been within three points in the fourth quarter. It may be ugly, but the Broncos find a way at home. Take the Broncos and lay 1.5 points (-117).

Seattle Seahawks (+200) at Los Angeles Chargers (-240)

The Seahawks offense has been surprisingly robust, explains why this game has the highest Over/Under of the week (51.5 points). You know the Chargers are going to throw, which is why I’m more interested in the Chargers being favored (5.5 points at -105 Seahawks, -115 Chargers). I don’t believe in the Seahawks and believe this one could easily be a double-digit Chargers win. Take the Chargers and lay 5.5 points (-115).

Kansas City Chiefs (-150) at San Francisco 49ers (+125)

The 49ers are capable of looking like a Super Bowl team one week and hot garbage the next. This is just their third home game, and they’re a home underdog (2.5 points at -125 Chiefs, +100 49ers). San Francisco plays a smashmouth style that they impose on opponents and certain teams fall prey to it. The Chiefs could blow them away, but I’m playing a hunch on this one. Take the 49ers on the moneyline (+125).

Pittsburgh Steelers (+270) at Miami Dolphins (-340)

The Steelers are coming off an upset win over the Buccaneers but are facing a Dolphins team getting Tua Tagovailoa back, and they’re a huge home favorite (7.5 points at -125 Steelers, +100 Dolphins). Those setting the line are daring you to take Miami. I’ll be their huckleberry. The banged-up Steelers defense has no answer for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Take the Dolphins and lay 7.5 points (+100).

Chicago Bears (+290) at New England Patriots (-370)

NFL fans have had their fill of primetime stink bombs, but this has all the makings of seeing fewer than 40 passes thrown. This game has the lowest Over/Under of the week (39.5 points at -117 Over, -103 Under). It’s that low for a reason. There will likely be more run plays than pass plays, and one 12-play drive can eat half of quarter off the clock. Take the Under (-103).

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Betting the NFL Line: Week 6

Week 6 wagers to make from around the NFL.

As the bye weeks kick in and the number of games is reduced, Week 6 is something of an anomaly that happens once or twice a year.

Of the 14 games on the Week 6 schedule, seven road teams are favored and three of the favored home teams are by less than a field goal — historically an ominous sign. Home-field advantage is important in the NFL, but this week the clear idea is that the better teams are the road teams this week.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook

NFL Betting Odds and Lines: Week 6

Washington Commanders (-110) at Chicago Bears (-107)

The Bears are 2-0 at home and the Commanders have lost four straight. Not a lot of points are expected here, and you get a better return on the moneyline with the Bears than you get by laying a half-point (-110). That doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, but I’ll take it. Take the Bears on the moneyline (-107).

San Francisco 49ers (-230) at Atlanta Falcons (+190)

I don’t think the 49ers are getting the respect they deserve. The 49ers defense has allowed just five touchdowns in five games, and the Niners have outscored their opponents 65-12 in the first half. The 49ers are a smaller favorite than expected (5.5 points at -108 49ers, -112 Falcons). I don’t see Atlanta scoring more than 16 points, so I’m comfortable with the spread. Take the 49ers and lay 5.5 points (-108).

Minnesota Vikings (-180) at Miami Dolphins (+150)

The Vikings have won three straight games under suspicious circumstances, but wins are wins. With Skylar Thompson being claimed to be the starter Sunday, Minnesota is modest road favorite (3.5 points at -108 Vikings, -112 Dolphins). This has the makings of a close game, but Thompson will make more critical mistakes than Kirk Cousins and that worth four or more points. Take the Vikings and lay the 3.5 points (-108).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-400) at Pittsburgh Steelers (+310)

We’re treading new ground in Pittsburgh. The last time Pittsburgh had a losing record was in 2003 – three years before Mike Tomlin was hired. They’re 1-4, are 0-2 at home and have lost two of their last three games by double digits. Tampa Bay is a healthy road favorite (7.5 points at -112 Buccaneers, -108 Steelers). Pittsburgh hasn’t been able to run the ball, and the Bucs’ attacking defense will make life miserable for rookie QB Kenny Pickett. The Buccaneers have the chance to roll for one of the rare times this season. Take the Buccaneers and lay the 7.5 points (-112).

Baltimore Ravens (-250) at New York Giants (+205)

When is the last time you can remember a 4-1 teams as a 5.5 underdog at home against a 3-2 team? The Ravens are that team (5.5 points at -112 Ravens, -108 Giants). The oddsmakers simply don’t believe in New York. Neither do I. Take the Ravens and lay the 5.5 points (-112).

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Cincinnati Bengals (-130) at New Orleans Saints (+110)

The Saints seem to find ways to lose, which can help explain why the Bengals are road favorites (2.5 points at -110 for both teams). The Bengals haven’t been above .500 all season, but this is a game for Joe Burrow to shine. The Saints have just one interception and good QBs carve them up. Take the Bengals and lay the 2.5 points (-110).

Jacksonville Jaguars (+105) at Indianapolis Colts (-150)

I don’t like the Over/Under here (42.5 points at -108 Over, -112 Under). The Colts have not scored more than 20 points in a game all season, and the Jaguars have allowed 13 points or fewer in three of their last four games. I was expecting and O/U of less than 40 points and was pleasantly surprised. Take the Under (-112).

New England Patriots (+125) at Cleveland Browns (-150)

The Patriots are coming off a domination of Detroit, which explains why the Browns are small favorites (2.5 points at +100 Patriots, -125 Browns). I expect the spread will go over three points before game time, so I’m getting in now. Take the Browns and lay 2.5 points (-125).

New York Jets (+270) at Green Bay Packers (-340)

Both teams are 3-2, but the Packers are prohibitive favorites (7.5 points at -120 Packers, -101 Jets). Those setting the lines don’t want to drop the spread lower than a touchdown, because it would shift the betting much more heavily to Green Bay. I look at the Jets’ two losses this season. Both have been by 15 points. I can envision the same for a Packers team humbled in London and looking for revenge. Take the Packers and lay the 7.5 points (-120).

Carolina Panthers (+360) at Los Angeles Rams (-460)

The Rams are 2-3 but the three losses have been to the Bills, 49ers and Cowboys – all likely playoff teams. The Panthers aren’t in the category, and the Rams have been installed the biggest favorite of the week (10.5 points at -115 Panthers, -105 Rams). Good teams find a way to beat up on the weaker teams on their schedule. The Rams survived a brutal first five games and need to roll the lesser teams when they get them. That’s what championship teams do. Take the Rams and lay the 10.5 points (-105).

Arizona Cardinals (-140) at Seattle Seahawks (+117)

I’m done with Over/Under bets involving Seattle after their last two games had 93 and 71 points scored. The Cardinals are one of the disappointments of the first portion of the season but are still respected enough to be road favorite (2.5 points at -120 Cardinals, -101 Seahawks). I’ve quit betting on Seattle games, but have to make a call here, and I still think the Seahawks are going to collapse as the season goes on. Take the Cardinals and lay 2.5 points (-120).

Buffalo Bills (-140) at Kansas City Chiefs (+117)

Last week I was all over the Over when the Chiefs played the Raiders when the Over was 50.5. It’s even more stiff this time around (54.5 points at -105 Over, -115 Under). Once Kansas City feel behind to the Raiders last week, it played into the hand of the bet. I have said since the preseason Buffalo is the best team in the NFL. The Chiefs will try to stay with them punch for punch and both teams will take big shots and hit enough of them. Take the Over (-105).

Dallas Cowboys (+215) at Philadelphia Eagles (-260)

I’m not on the Cooper Rush train, but I am on the Micah Parsons train. The Eagles are the last unbeaten team in the league and are being shown that respect on the line (6.5 points at -117 Cowboys, -103 Eagles). I get the feeling it’s going to drop a point before game time, but while I believe the Eagles are capable of a double-digit win, Dallas hasn’t allowed more than 19 points in a game all season, which doesn’t leave much needed to cover that spread. Take the Cowboys plus 6.5 points (-117).

Denver Broncos (+190) at Los Angeles Chargers (-230)

The Over/Under (45.5 points at -108 Broncos, -112 Chargers) is curious, because the Broncos have hit under that number in four of five games and the Chargers have hit over that number in their last four. The fact L.A. is only favored by 4.5 points says the game is expected to be close. In that case, the Under rules more times than not. Take the Under at 45.5 points (-112).

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Betting the NFL Line: Week 5

The smartest wagers to make for NFL Week 5 action.

The oddsmakers are starting the see the separation between the good teams and the bad teams of 2022, and it is being reflected in the point spreads.

Of the 16 games on the Week 5 slate – the last week that all teams are on equal footing with bye weeks coming – seven of them have one team favored by 6.5 points or more. Of those, four are division games where both teams have an innate familiarity with each other.

The question bettors have to ask themselves is whether or not the favorites are giving away enough points or giving away too many?

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook

NFL Betting Odds and Lines: Week 5

Indianapolis Colts (+145) at Denver Broncos (-175)

Thursday night games are always a mixed bag. You never know if the short week is going to result on offenses controlling the defenses or a low-scoring slugfest between teams with lingering injuries from the previous week. The Over/Under seems low (42.5 points at -105 Over, -115 Under). However, the Broncos have gone over this point once, and the Colts haven’t hit that number yet. Take the Under (-115).

New York Giants (+320) vs. Green Bay Packers (-410)

The Packers don’t have great receivers, and the Giants have highly paid receivers doing nothing. The Packers are a prohibitive “home” favorite (8.5 points at -112 Giants, -108 Packers) in London. I’m not a big fan of laying a ton of points, but I just don’t think the Giants will muster 17 points. At that number, Green Bay should score enough to cover. Take the Packers and lay 8.5 points (-108).

Chicago Bears (+255) at Minnesota Vikings (-320)

The Vikings are a solid home favorite (6.5 points at +100 Bears, -125 Vikings). Minnesota struggled against Chicago prior to last year – when they swept the Bears. Minnesota has struggled to win games but found ways. The Bears can’t generate the offense required to run with Minnesota in their house. Take the Vikings and lay the 6.5 points (-125).

Tennessee Titans (-135) at Washington Commanders (+115)

I didn’t give up on the Titans when they started 0-2 and didn’t buy in when Carson Wentz started the season on fire. Both teams have come back. Tennessee is a modest favorite (2.5 points at -115 Titans, -105 Commanders). Washington is the type of team that allows an opponent to dictate pace, and Derrick Henry is a tough bone to chew. Take the Titans and lay 2.5 points (-115).

Detroit Lions (+140) at New England Patriots (-165)

I’m actually leaning on the Lions winning this game as a road underdog, which is why the point spread is intriguing (3.5 points at -125 Lions, +100 Patriots). Those making the line don’t have confidence in a Patriots team with two dinged QBs – and neither do I. Take the Lions and 3.5 points (-125).

Pittsburgh Steelers (+650) at Buffalo Bills (-1000)

The Bills are massive favorites and a beating of epic proportions is being presented. However, the Over/Under (46.5 points at -110 for both) doesn’t take into account that the Steelers aren’t awful on offense and Buffalo can be had defensively. I believe the Bills are going to score 34. If the Steelers can provide 13, we’re good. Take the Over (-110).

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Houston Texans (+255) at Jacksonville Jaguars (-320)

I’ve been touting the Jags as a team with the offense to make a jump up the power rankings. However, even against the Texans, I’m not willing to give the Jags the points they’re assigned (7.5 points at -125 Texans, +100 Jaguars). They coming up and the Texans are nondescript, but 7.5 points? Too rich for my blood. Take the Texans plus 7.5 points (-125).

Los Angeles Chargers (-135) at Cleveland Browns (+115)

I look for a underdog or two to take every week on the moneyline. There weren’t many contenders because of the fat spreads on so many games. The Chargers are a road favorite heading east for 1 p.m. game. They are the better overall team, but the Browns protect the yard in this one. Take the Browns on the moneyline (+115).

Seattle Seahawks (+190) at New Orleans Saints (-230)

Seattle is once again a high-point pick (46.5 points at -108 Over, -112 Under), and I don’t see it. Didn’t see it last week when the Seahawks and Lions combined for 93 points and still don’t. Take the Under (-112).

Atlanta Falcons (+350) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-450)

The Buccaneers finally showed they could score in the first half (because they had to) and the Falcons are far less daunting an opponent than the Chiefs. The Bucs are solid favorites (9.5 points at -110 for both). We haven’t seen the Buccaneers beat down somebody yet. If it isn’t this week, it may not be coming. Take the Buccaneers and lay 9.5 points (-110).

Miami Dolphins (-175) at New York Jets (+145)

In most cases, when a starting QB goes down, hope is lost. The Dolphins invested in Teddy Bridgewater to avoid that. The Dolphins are a solid road favorite (3.5 points at -103 Dolphins, -117 Jets). The number tells you not to bet Miami, but I am willing. Take the Dolphins and lay 3.5 points (-103).

San Francisco 49ers (-280) at Carolina Panthers (+230)

The 49ers aren’t a Super Bowl winner, but they dominate when they force teams to play their style. They’re a big road favorite (6.5 points at -103 49ers, -117 Panthers). This disparity says the 49ers won’t cover. I’m thinking low-to-mid double digits. Take the 49ers and lay 6.5 points (-103).

Philadelphia Eagles (-230) at Arizona Cardinals (+190)

The Eagles are the last unbeaten team and are heading to play a Cardinals team that hasn’t put together a full game yet this season. Philly is a strong road favorite (5.5 points at -108 Eagles, -112 Cardinals). While I think the Eagles will find a way to win, I’m not willing to give away that many points for a team that has legitimate playoff aspirations. Take the Cardinals plus 5.5 points (-112).

Dallas Cowboys (+205) at Los Angeles Rams (-250)

I’m not ready to give up on the Rams, although they have given reason to be abandoned. They remain a solid home favorite (5.5 points at -105 Cowboys, -115 Rams). The Cooper Rush saga has been a cute story, but Aaron Donald makes the difference in the decision when Dak Prescott comes back. Dallas didn’t put Prescott on four-week Injured Reserve but don’t want him making his comeback here. Take the Rams and lay 5.5 points (-115).

Cincinnati Bengals (+145) at Baltimore Ravens (-175)

For divisional games, this rivalry is known for its lopsided smackdowns. The Ravens are favored (3.5 points at -117 Bengals, -103 Ravens). The two most recent beatings saw the Bengals outscore the Ravens 82-38. I’m picking the Ravens to win, but I like the chances getting 3-and-a-hook with the Bengals. Take the Bengals and 3.5 points.

Las Vegas Raiders (+245) at Kansas City Chiefs (-300)

The Raiders saved their season last week, but now head into Kansas City – where blowouts have been the norm. Vegas is going to try to run with the Chiefs, and the Over/Under on this game is the highest of Week 5 (50.5 points at -115 Over, -105 Under). At some point, this game is going to turn into a track meet – and it might take a defensive TD to get it started. Take the Over (-115).

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Betting the NFL Line: Week 4

The smartest wagers to make in Week 4 from around the NFL.

Betting lines are much different this week than what they might have been if not for an insane Week 3.

The Buffalo Bills run an impossible 51 more offensive snaps than Miami (90-39), outgains the Dolphins by 272 yards, scored a butt-punt safety, had just one turnover, and held the ball for 40:40 of the 60 minutes – and lost.

The Kansas City Chiefs lost to an Indianapolis Colts team that couldn’t beat the Houston Texans or Jacksonville Jaguars – two games they historically win. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost a lackluster home matchup with the Green Bay Packers that left both teams looking worse. Russell Wilson drowned out the boos of the home fans in Denver just in time to win. Monday Night Football was an insomnia cure with the Dallas Cowboys now 2-0 under Cooper Rush.

So many of the narratives and storylines heading into Week 3 were dropped on their heads, which left many bettors heading home instead of to the pay window. Normalcy needs to return.

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NFL Betting Odds and Lines: Week 4

Miami Dolphins (+170) at Cincinnati Bengals (-205)

Despite the Dolphins being the last unbeaten team in the AFC, they’re getting very little respect on the point spread, where the Bengals are solid home favorites (4.5 points at -115 Dolphins, -107 Bengals). The key here is that Joe Burrow isn’t getting protected. He’s been sacked 15 times and many of his 15 rushing attempts are escapes, not RPOs. Getting 4-and-a-hook on a team with a legit defense works for me. Take Miami and 4.5 points (-115).

Minnesota Vikings (-145) vs. New Orleans Saints (+122)

The Vikings are modest favorites in London (2.5 points at -125 Vikings, +100 Saints). The Vikings aren’t playing at a high level but have enough to beat this version of the Saints, who are hurt on the offensive line and have a QB willing to throw 50/50 balls that too often are picked off. Take the Vikings and lay the 2.5 points).

Seattle Seahawks (+175) at Detroit Lions (-210)

I was stunned when I saw the Over/Under (47.5 points at -115 Over, -107 Under). I would have thought five points than this – the third-highest point on the Week 4 slate. Ideally, both teams want to run the ball and not leave winning or losing in the hands of their quarterbacks. What about that screams 30-23? Take the Under (-107).

Los Angeles Chargers (-230) at Houston Texans (+190)

The Chargers took it on the chin the day after Christmas last year and the hands of the Texans. At the time, the Chargers were 8-6 and controlling their own playoff destiny. Houston had scored nine or fewer points six times. The Texans won 41-29. The Chargers are a strong road favorite (5.5 points at -107 Chargers, -115 Texans). I believe there is a receipt coming for the Texans. Take the Chargers and lay the 5.5 point (-107).

Cleveland Browns (-120) at Atlanta Falcons (+102)

Here we go again with the inflated Over/Under numbers. The Over/Under here (48.5 points at -115 Over, -107 Under) is behind only the Bills-Ravens (50.5). You have two teams that, when they’re playing their best, are run-heavy. Cleveland’s defense is legit and, if either team gets off to a 10-point lead, it will run on first and second down until it’s stopped. Take the Under (-107).

Washington Commanders (+145) at Dallas Cowboys (-170)

What a Rush! Coopermania is running wild in Dallas, but it’s the Cowboys defense that is making everything possible. The Cowboys are a modest home favorite (3.5 points at -122 Commanders, -102 Cowboys). I’m not convinced that Carson Wentz will fare any better against the Cowboys than he did against the Eagles. If your opponent can’t score 14 points, it doesn’t take a lot to cover the spread. Take the Cowboys and lay the 3.5 points (-102).

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Buffalo Bills (-160) at Baltimore Ravens (+135)

As noted above, the Bills dominated Miami and still lost. I believe Buffalo is going to win this game, but the Bills are given a pretty significant number as a road favorite (3.5 points at +100 Bills, -125 Ravens). As always, the Ravens are the most banged-up team in the league, and the Bills will have enough of an answer for Lamar Jackson in the running game. Begrudgingly take the Bills and lay the 3.5 points (+100).

Tennessee Titans (+150) at Indianapolis Colts (-175)

I still believe when all is said and done, if Derrick Henry stays healthy, the Titans win the AFC South. I have much less confidence in the Colts. The Colts are a solid home favorite (3.5 points at -122 Titans, -102 Colts). I think Tennessee can win this game outright. Giving away more than a field goal has my interest. Take the Titans plus 3.5 points (-122).

New York Jets (+150) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-175)

I don’t have a lot of confidence in the Jets on the road or the Steelers in general. However, these are the type of games Pittsburgh wins ugly. The Over/Under isn’t a shock (41.5 points at -110 for both), because neither offense has set the world on fire and both defenses have guys who make big plays. This won’t be a shootout. It will be about field position and field goals. Take the Under (-110).

Jacksonville Jaguars (+230) at Philadelphia Eagles (-280)

The Jaguars are still being viewed as a “cute story” in 2022. Jacksonville’s defense is legit, and its offense is catching up. The Eagles are 3-0 and now have a multidimensional offense. Both teams have put up points, which is why the Over/Under is a little stiff (46.5 points at -112 Over, -108 Under). Two teams that were on the outside of the discussion of Super Bowl contenders are going to treat this like a playoff game. I see a lot of running and tempo control here rather than flinging and slinging. Take the Under (-108).

Chicago Bears (+145) at New York Giants (-170)

Two of the most brutal offenses in the league that have combined to score 11 touchdowns in six games … The Giants are favored in this improbable matchup of 2-1 teams (3.5 points at -125 Bears, +100 Giants). I can’t see either team blowing the other out unless there are defensive touchdowns in play, so I’ll take my chances with the team getting points. Take the Bears and 3.5 points (-125).

Arizona Cardinals (+105) at Carolina Panthers (-125)

The Cardinals have been a huge disappointment, because they’ve been outscored 31-0 in the first quarter and 80-23 through the first three quarters. As a result, the Panthers are a slim, shady favorite (1.5 points at -108 Cardinals, -112 Panthers). The Cardinals desperately need to win this one and won’t get blown out early this time around. Take the Cardinals on the moneyline (-108).

New England Patriots (+400) at Green Bay Packers (-520)

I hate everything about this game. The Patriots are on life support for the season, and the Packers still haven’t found itself offensively. Green Bay is a massive favorite (9.5 points at -105 Patriots, -120 Packers). I don’t like a point spread that big, but I’m unconvinced that Patriots are capable of scoring 14 points without a defensive or special teams touchdown. I much more confident in Green Bay scoring 24. Take the Packers and lay the 9.5 points (-120).

Denver Broncos (+120) at Las Vegas Raiders (-140)

The Raiders are 0-3 and angry. They were a playoff team last year and have a better roster now than they did then. The Broncos are a phantom 2-1, which is why the Raiders are small favorites (2.5 points at -105 Broncos, -120 Raiders). This is the game that doesn’t define Denver’s season. It’s the one that has to define the Raiders’ season. Take the Raiders and lay the 2.5 points.

Kansas City Chiefs (-120) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+102)

The Bucs defense has been unheralded for the stellar job it has done to date. The Bucs offense hasn’t scored a touchdown in the first half all season. Tampa’s defense has been able to overcome it. The Chiefs lost last week, but remain road (if the game is actually played in Tampa) favorites (1.5 points at -110 for both teams). It’s never easy to bet against Tom Brady, but if he tries to get in a shootout with Patrick Mahomes, he’s playing into the Chiefs’ hands. Take the Chiefs and lay the 1.5 points (-110).

Los Angeles Rams (+102) at San Francisco 49ers (-120)

The 49ers beat the Rams both times they met last season, but they played LA’s game. It became more up-tempo than San Francisco prefers. The Niners want to slow you down and grind out wins. The scores in last season’s meetings were 31-10 and 27-24. Both teams are willing to open things up, which makes the Over/Under a little unpalatable (41.5 points at -112 Over, -108 Under). The Rams are going to try to make this an up-tempo game. Win or lose, that’s all it takes. Take the Over at 41.5 points (-112).

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Betting the NFL Line: Week 3

The best wagers to make on Week 3 NFL games.

Week 3 of the 2022 NFL season will have a significant impact on divisional races because there are multiple games of significance from the first game to the last.

The week starts with the Pittsburgh Steelers at the Cleveland Browns – the first of seven divisional games on the Week 3 slate. Sunday’s highlights include a battle of 2-0 division rivals when the Buffalo Bills go on the road to face the Miami Dolphins. The Philadelphia Eagles look to remain undefeated at the Washington Commanders, and the Los Angeles Rams face the Arizona Cardinals with first place in the NFC West on the line.

The week ends with an improbably critical matchup as the Dallas Cowboys look to steal another win without Dak Prescott when they face the undefeated New York Giants.

The divisions will have a much different look after Week 3 than they do now, and a significant amount of these games will come into play at the end of the season when valuable tie-breakers have been put in place.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook

NFL Betting Odds and Lines: Week 3

Pittsburgh Steelers (+175) at Cleveland Browns (-210)

This has all the makings of a field position game with two divisional opponents that are on a short week of healing up. That said, the Over/Under is just too low (38.5 points at Over -108, Under -112) in my estimation. Both teams will look to run the ball, but there will be downfield shots for both quarterbacks that will put at least one team into the 20s, and I think both will do it. Take the Over (-112).

New Orleans Saints (-155) at Carolina Panthers (+130)

The Panthers are desperately looking to avoid dropping to 0-3, and the Saints are coming off disappointing home loss to the Buccaneers. New Orleans is healthy road favorite (3.5 points at +110 Saints, -135 Panthers). The difference in what needs to be invested is huge, and the Saints have a much better defense. When I doubt, I bet on defense – much less with the return on investment. Take the Saints and lay the 3.5 points (+110).

Houston Texans (+125) at Chicago Bears (-150)

Neither offense has shown much in the way of a spark and both have been able to be shut down for long periods of game time. There is a very low Over/Under number (40.5 points at -105 Over, -115 Under). This game has all the looks of one with more field goals than touchdowns and both teams have the running games to string together seven-minute drives. You don’t need many of them to keep a score low. Take the Under (-115).

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Baltimore Ravens (-150) at New England Patriots (+125)

The Ravens haven’t been a road favorite often in New England, but they’re favored this week (2.5 points at -125 Ravens, +102 Patriots). The Patriots offense is much better suited to play it’s ball-control style against like-minded teams. Lamar Jackson has been forced to take on the dual role of the only viable running option and opening up the passing game more. That’s recipe for a road win – and probably by more than three points. Take the Ravens and lay the 2.5 points.

Philadelphia Eagles (-270) at Washington Commanders (+220)

A lot is going to be made about Carson Wentz looking for revenge against his old team, but the same can be said for the Eagles defense wanting to throttle him and prove why the organization parted ways with him. The Eagles are coming off a short week but should be a bigger favorite than they are (6.5 points at -108 Eagles, -112 Commanders). I see this as a double-digit win for Philadelphia and making a statement in the NFC East. Take the Eagles and lay the 6.5 points (-108).

Las Vegas Raiders (-130) at Tennessee Titans (+110)

This is the most difficult pick of the week for me. The 0-2 Raiders are slight road favorites (2.5 points at -110 for both teams). There are certain teams that I struggle giving up on, and the Titans are one of them. This was the No. 1 seed in the AFC last year and, while they have struggled, there’s talent on both sides of the ball. I think this is the week it finally clicks. Take the Titans on the moneyline (+110).

Cincinnati Bengals (-230) at New York Jets (+190)

The Bengals have struggled out of the gate with the same team that went to the Super Bowl last year and the Jets are coming off a big win, which may explain why the Bengals are small favorites (4.5 points at -115 Bengals, -105 Jets). The Jets are taking positive steps, but the Bengals are built for a playoff run again. I would boost this bet up to 9.5 and feel comfortable with it. Take the Bengals and lay the 4.5 points.

Kansas City Chiefs (-270) at Indianapolis Colts (+220)

The Colts were supposed to be the heavy favorite to win the AFC South but haven’t won a game yet and are facing the most successful team in the AFC over the last five years. These are the type of games that can trap a confident road favorite, like the Chiefs (6.5 points at -108 Chiefs, -112 Colts). I hate games like this, because the Colts will take more risks out of desperation, but they don’t have an answer for Patrick Mahomes. Take the Chiefs and lay the 6.5 points.

Buffalo Bills (-250) at Miami Dolphins (+205)

This is Miami’s opportunity to make a statement to the rest of the NFL that they’re a team to be reckoned with. The Dolphins dominated New England and overcame a 21-point deficit to the Ravens. The second reason is why I’m loving the Over/Under (53.5 points at -105 Over, -115 Under). Buffalo can hang 40 on anybody and won’t take the foot off the gas if it gets up 21-0 in the first half. The Dolphins will be slinging regardless. Take the Over (-105).

Detroit Lions (+205) at Minnesota Vikings (-250)

Like the Bills-Dolphins game, this one has a week-tying high Over/Under number (53.5 points at Over -105, Under -115). There is plenty not to like about this: Minnesota is coming off a humbling loss, and Kirk Cousins is likely not going to take any chances offensively. The Lions are at their best running the ball. In three of the four meetings in Minnesota with Cousins as QB, the Vikings have won them all with point totals of 36, 54, 27 and 33. Take the Under (-115).

Jacksonville Jaguars (+260) at Los Angeles Chargers (-320)

The Jaguars are coming off the signature win of the Trevor Lawrence era with a shutout of the Colts, which helps to explain why the Chargers aren’t bigger favorites (6.5 points at +102 Jaguars, -125). The return on investment is rough for a reason. It’s been forever since the Chargers lost to the Chiefs last Thursday, and the Jags are flying cross-country. This point is too low. Take the Chargers and lay the 6.5 points (-125).

Atlanta Falcons (+105) at Seattle Seahawks (-125)

I don’t have a lot of faith in either team. I do know that Pete Carroll will run the ball to the point of frustration, and Marcus Mariota isn’t going to light up the town. The Over/Under is low (41.5 points at -112 Over, -108 Under). I don’t think it’s low enough. Take the Under (-108).

Green Bay Packers (-101) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-117)

The big question here is to whom will Tom Brady have to throw? Both teams rested or put limitations on a lot of their players, but Mike Evans is out, and Chris Godwin and Julio Jones didn’t practice Wednesday. That explains the Bucs being pee-wee favorites (1.5 points at -112 Packers, -108 Buccaneers). Brady has entered games with worse and found ways to win. Two Hall of Fame quarterbacks, so all bets should be off, and we should just enjoy the game. However, we make picks here. Take the Buccaneers and lay the 1.5 points (-108).

Los Angeles Rams (-175) at Arizona Cardinals (+150)

The Rams are a solid road favorite (3.5 points at -105 Rams, -115 Cardinals) for a divisional game. The Cards were run out of their own building by the Chiefs and the Rams have a very similar offensive styles. The Cardinals want to be up-tempo but, without DeAndre Hopkins, are not equipped to get involved in a shootout. Take the Rams and lay the 3.5 points (-105).

San Francisco 49ers (-120) at Denver Broncos (+102)

Russell Wilson’s primetime tour continues with a team he has absolutely owned in his career. He has won his last four and 16 of his last 18 games against the 49ers. He knows their personnel. He knows their schemes. The last few games have been high scoring, but when Wilson was at his best, his offense was controlling the clock. With a respectable Over/Under (44.5 points at -110 for both), it would seem big plays are expected. I think Wilson is going to revert to what worked early in his career and control tempo. Take the Under (-110).

Dallas Cowboys (-101) at New York Giants (-117)

The cards have fallen perfectly for the Giants, and if someone had said three weeks ago New York would be favorite (1.5 points at -112 Cowboys, -108 Giants), nobody would have believed it. The new quarterback of this team is Micah Parsons, and I think he will win another to cement his LT 2.0 legacy. Take the Cowboys on the moneyline (-101).

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Betting the NFL Line: Week 2

All of the smartest bets from each Week 2 game.

Week 2 is a watershed point of every season. Every team that won in Week 1 is looking to build on that momentum, while every team that loses is desperate to avoid the potential of falling to 0-2 and digging itself a hole that will take a month to try to dig out of (if they can).

There are four games pitting 1-0 teams against one another, which will knock down the number of undefeated teams by four – barring another tie – and there are five games involving teams that haven’t won yet, which will put a lot of pressure on them to avoid keeping a zero in the win column.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook

NFL Betting Odds and Lines: Week 2

Los Angeles Chargers (+170) at Kansas City Chiefs (-205)

This is a tough one to start the week because these two tend to get in shootouts that make this game the highest Over/Under on the Week 2 slate (54.5 points). The road team has won the last four meetings, so the Chargers won’t be intimidated heading into Arrowhead. Given all the improvements the other teams in the division have made, Kansas City needs to make a statement that it’s still the big dog in the yard. On Wednesday, the spread dropped a point on the Chiefs winning (3.5 points at -105 Chargers, -115 Chiefs), but I get the feeling Patrick Mahomes will make the plays needed late to win another shootout. Take the Chiefs and lay the 3.5 points (-115).

Miami Dolphins (+160) at Baltimore Ravens (-190)

The Dolphins and Ravens both came off solid wins in Week 1, and the expectation is that the defenses will have the advantage with a relatively low Over/Under (44.5 points at -108 Over, -112 Under). Both teams have good defenses, but they play aggressively and are prone to making mistakes. When you have game-breakers like Lamar Jackson on one side of the ball and Tyreek Hill on the other, the potential for big plays that get a team immediately into scoring position makes you think the point isn’t high enough. Take the Over (-108).

Washington Commanders (+102) at Detroit Lions (-120)

The Lions have won only three of 18 games under head coach Dan Campbell, but the team showed signs of improvement late last year and are a young team building together on the draft harvest for Matthew Stafford. I’m not sold on the Commanders as being a team that can waltz in on the road and take a win. The point spread doesn’t make Detroit much of a favorite (1.5 points at -108 Commanders, -112 Lions). It doesn’t happen very often that you read these words: Take the Lions and lay the 1.5 points.

Indianapolis Colts (-190) at Jacksonville Jaguars (+160)

The Colts fully expected to be 2-0 opening on the road with the Texans and Jaguars to open the year, but they came away with a tie against Houston that has the plan changed. As a result, the Colts are a smaller road favorite than would be expected against the Jags (3.5 points at -112 Colts, -108 Jaguars). The Colts have a solid core who will correct mistakes better than a young Jaguars team, and Indy’s season as the best overall team in the division gets back on track. Take the Colts and lay the 3.5 points.

Carolina Panthers (+105) at New York Giants (-125)

Just as stunning as the Lions being a favorite, so are the Giants after an upset win over the Titans on the road. While New York won the game on a missed field goal, the Panthers comeback to take the lead was snuffed by a 58-yard field goal with eight seconds to play. I look at these rosters and say the Panthers have the edge in too many key spots, yet the Giants are favored by 2.5 points. I’m not betting on the Lions and Giants in the same week on principle. Take the Panthers on the moneyline (+105).

New England Patriots (-125) at Pittsburgh Steelers (+105)

I had some serious reservations about the Patriots before the season when hearing the news that they were putting a defensive coordinator and a special teams coach in charge of an offense. It showed in the Pats’ humbling loss to Miami in Week 1. Yet, the loss of T.J. Watt has impacted this line. New England is a road favorite (2.5 points at -125 Patriots, +105 Steelers). Do I have this right? You’re giving two-and-a-hook with the Steelers at home and I win more than I bet? Yes, please. Where did I leave my Terrible Towel? Take the Steelers on the moneyline (+105).

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-150) at New Orleans Saints (+125)

I preface this pick with an explanation: I have learned that whenever a career stat is positive when you bet against Tom Brady, he has a history of rectifying those numbers. In four regular season games against the Saints as a division rival, Brady is 0-4. Despite that, the Bucs are still a small favorite in New Orleans (2.5 points at -125 Bucs, +102 Saints). I’ve been to the pay window too often by not betting against Brady – even with his O-fer against New Orleans in his Tampa experience (excluding sending the Saints home in the 2020 playoffs). Don’t bet against the G.O.A.T. It usually doesn’t end well. Take the Buccaneers and lay the 2.5 points (-125).

New York Jets (+220) at Cleveland Browns (-270)

I strongly dislike both New York teams when it comes to betting on them. But one thing I strongly dislike even more are Over/Under numbers less than 40. This one qualifies (39.5 points at -117 Over, -103 Under). The Browns are capable of putting up points and, while it may take garbage time to hit it, I’m a sucker for an Under that is too hard to justify in the NFL. One defensive or special teams touchdown seals the deal. Take the Over (-117).

Atlanta Falcons (+420) at Los Angeles Rams (-550)

The Rams are stinging from their Week 1 home drubbing by the Bills and will have had 10 days to stew on it. They’re a gigantic favorites against the Falcons (10.5 points at -115 Falcons, -105 Rams). You’re almost being dared to take the Rams. That’s good enough for me. I would consider a boosted bet of 16.5 points to get more juice, because this has the makings of being an SEC non-conference game. Take the Rams and lay the 10.5 points (-105).

Seattle Seahawks (+360) at San Francisco 49ers (-475)

Geno Smith played the half of his life in Week 1 and still managed to put up only 17 points. The 49ers are still taking baby steps with Trey Lance. Both teams want to run the ball, which lends itself to the pee-wee Over/Under (42.5 points at -108 Over, -112 Under). This is an interesting number since the 49ers are 9.5-point favorites. A blowout is predicted with a low total. I’m not convinced Seattle can bring 13 points to the table. Take the Under (-112).

Cincinnati Bengals (-380) at Dallas Cowboys (+300)

The defending AFC champs are coming off a face-slap loss at home to the Steelers that shouldn’t have happened. Dallas is reeling with the loss of Dak Prescott and the unwillingness to accept that fact and give up draft capital to bring in a replacement. The Bengals are a big road favorite (7.5 points at -108 Bengals, -112 Cowboys). This is a number that is deceptive because it has to be big enough to get Dallas fans to bet. It’s not big enough for my liking. Take the Bengals and lay the 7.5 points (-108).

Arizona Cardinals (+175) at Las Vegas Raiders (-210)

This has a really big Over/Under (51.5 points at -110 for both). This is an ideal point because both offenses are capable of putting up 30 and both defenses are likely going to be forced to get back on the field quickly if the other hits a big play, which is a classic element of the “anything you can do, I can do better” mentality with offenses that think they’re superior. This has all the makings of that. Take the Over at -110.

Houston Texans (+400) at Denver Broncos (-520)

The Texans came away with a tie in Week 1, and the Broncos took a loss they shouldn’t have. Denver is clearly the better team, but I’m not willing to give 10.5 points to prove a point. My only bet on this game is the Over/Under (44.5 points at -115 Over, -105 Under). I’m not a big fan of this bet either, but I like Denver’s defense enough to think the Texans won’t do their part enough to get to 45 points. Take the Under at -105.

Chicago Bears (+380) at Green Bay Packers (-500)

A year ago after being drubbed by the Saints in Week 1, the Packers weren’t written off for dead, but they were disrespected. All Green Bay did was win its next seven games and 13 of its final 16 regular season games. I’m not a fan of how big a favorite the Packers are (9.5 points at -103 Bears, -117 Packers), but Chicago is still in the infancy steps with Justin Fields as the franchise guy, and Rodgers owns the Bears. He’s won the last six meetings and 20 of the last 23. That’s dominance. Not to mention that his last four wins have all been by double digits. Take the Packers and lay the 9.5 points (-117).

Tennessee Titans (+380) at Buffalo Bills (-500)

The Titans were stunned by the Giants and the Bills are at home with 10 days rest. The Over/Under is big (48.5 points at -112 Over, -108 Under), but I’m very bullish on Buffalo coming out of the AFC, and this is another chance to make a statement. I’m convinced, barring a couple turnovers, the Bills are capable of scoring 35 points. The Titans can take care of the rest. Take the Over (-112).

Minnesota Vikings (+110) at Philadelphia Eagles (-130)

The Vikings dominated Green Bay for four quarters, and the Eagles dominated the Lions for three. The Eagles are a sketchy home favorite (2.5 points at -108 Vikings, -112 Eagles). By now we know Kirk Cousins’ history in primetime (not good). The Vikings are a playoff team, but this one isn’t their mountain to conquer. Their defense will make the critical mistakes that cost them a lead, and Cousins will make the mistake that costs them the game. Take the Eagles and lay the 2.5 points.

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Betting the NFL Line: Week 1

All of the smartest wagers to make for Week 1.

There’s a general rule in gambling on games in Week 1 as teams showcase what they have coming into the season for the first time – when in doubt, bet on the home team.

Apparently those who made the NFL schedule were aware of that axiom. Of the 16 games in Week 1, 10 home teams are underdogs, including the defending champs.

If trying to rock the boat early was the NFL’s intent, well played. Now let’s see how many of these road favorites get the job done.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook

NFL Betting Odds and Lines: Week 1

Buffalo Bills (-135) at Los Angeles Rams (+115)

This should be a great opening game with the defending champion Rams facing my pick to win it all this year in the Bills. A case can be made for both teams, which may explain why Buffalo is a 2.5 road favorite. But the number I’m interested in here is the Over/Under (51.5 points at -112 Over, -108 Under). Both teams have solid defenses, but they also both have lethal offenses. All this will require is one team taking a 10-point lead early and then the fireworks begin. Take the Over at -112.

New Orleans Saints (-240) at Atlanta Falcons (+200)

The Saints have quietly built a Super Bowl-contending team in the shadow of Tom Brady and the Buccaneers and look to have as many offensive weapons as they did during the heyday of Drew Brees. Although I’m not a big fan of the number of points New Orleans has to give (5.5 points at -108 Saints, -112 Falcons), my lack of faith in Marcus Mariota and a team in the bottom seven on both offense and defense last year eases that concern. Take the Saints and lay the 5.5 points (-108).

Cleveland Browns (+105) at Carolina Panthers (-125)

The storyline here is Baker Mayfield playing against his former team, but nobody is talking about the Browns defense looking for the opportunity to knock Mayfield around and force him into the big mistakes that cost his team games too often in his career in Cleveland. This one’s for the Dawg Pound. Take the Browns on the Moneyline (+105).

San Francisco 49ers (-320) at Chicago Bears (+260)

The battle of two of hottest young quarterback prospects – Trey Lance and Justin Fields – is another made-for-TV scheduling decision, but the quarterbacks aren’t the real storyline. The 49ers have one of the deepest rosters in the NFL on both sides of the ball. The Bears are painfully thin on offensive depth, which is why the 49ers are big favorites (6.5 points at 49ers -120, Bears +100). Just as telling as the point spread is what you have to bet. Get in now before the line goes to 7.5 and the onus is higher to cover. Take the 49ers and lay the 6.5 points.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+230) at Cincinnati Bengals (-280)

There are likely going to be a lot of people jumping on the Steelers getting 6.5 points (I’m not far off that myself), but I have a feeling this game is going to be about ball control and making plays to extend long drives. While the Over/Under is one of the lower totals on the board this week (44.5 points at -105 Over, -115 Under), this one has the smell of a 23-20 of 20-13 type of game with more field goals than touchdowns from these division rivals. Take the Under (-115).

Philadelphia Eagles (-200) at Detroit Lions (+165)

The Eagles are a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The same can’t be said for the Lions. I’ve never been a fan of Jared Goff being able to put up a slew of points, which is why the Over/Under seems too inflated (48.5 points at -112 Over, -108 Under). Dan Campbell has the Lions pointed in the right direction, but expecting his offense to light up the Eagles is a tall order the Lions likely aren’t up to taking on. Take the Under (-108).

Indianapolis Colts (-340) at Houston Texans (+270)

The Colts are tied for being the biggest favorite of Week 1 (7.5 points) and, while I’m relatively convinced they can cover, I am looking at an Over/Under that seems very reachable whether the Texans put up a fight or not (45.5 points at -115 Over, -105 Under). It may take a touchdown in garbage time to hit this number, but Take the Over (-115).

New England Patriots (+150) at Miami Dolphins (-175)

Huge things are expected from Tua Tagovailoa with additions of Tyreek Hill and Chase Edmonds, but with the way New England plays defense, I see this game falling one of two ways. In one scenario, Miami makes enough big plays to put the game on the shoulders of Mac Jones to answer back and he fails. The other has New England grinding the ball on the ground and playing a smothering defense. In both those scenarios, the Over/Under (45.5 points at -115 Over, -105 Under) seems too high. The only way this goes Over is if Miami blows the doors off the Patriots, which I don’t see happening. Take the Under (-105).

Baltimore Ravens (-340) at New York Jets (+270)

In the first of many 1 p.m. ET Sunday starts for the Jets, the script seems to remain the same – the league’s worst defense in 2021 is facing Lamar Jackson and a Ravens team looking to bounce back from one of the most injury-ravaged seasons in NFL history. The Ravens are a heavy favorite (7.5 points at Ravens +100, Jets -120). The 7-and-a-hook is always a tough number, but I don’t see the Jets being able to muster up much on offense, which leaves the game on the backs of the defense. Take the Ravens and lay the 7.5 points (+100).

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Jacksonville Jaguars (+115) at Washington Commanders (-135)

In a FRO affair (For Relatives Only), two teams viewed with very little in the way of postseason aspirations, the Commanders are a non-commanding favorite (2.5 points at -103 Jaguars, -117 Commanders). We likely won’t be saying this often during the season, but Take the Commanders and lay the 2.5 points (-117).

Kansas City Chiefs (-240) at Arizona Cardinals (+200)

Tyreek who? Clearly, the oddsmakers aren’t intimidated by the new-look Chiefs wide receiver corps and have installed Kansas City as a big road favorite (5.5 points at -115 Chiefs, -105 Cardinals). While the biggest Over/Under on the board this week (53.5 points) is intriguing, all the Chiefs need to do is win the turnover battle and let Patrick Mahomes do what he does best. Take the Chiefs and lay the 5.5 points.

Las Vegas Raiders (+150) at Los Angles Chargers (-175)

The Raiders and Chargers have been the little brothers of the AFC West for a long time and are both looking to knock the Chiefs off the top of the hill, making this Week 1 matchup one that may have big implications when we flip to 2023 at the end of the regular season. The Chargers are a modest favorite (3.5 points at -112 Raiders, -108 Chargers). The game is expected to be high scoring, which lends itself to the ball being in the air a lot. In that scenario, I have a lot more faith in Justin Herbert than Derek Carr. Take the Chargers and lay the 3.5 points (-108).

Green Bay Packers (-117) at Minnesota Vikings (-101)

Of all the teams that are favored to win in Week 1, the least of those are the Packers (1.5 points at -108 Packers, -112 Vikings). The Vikings have consistently given the Packers much trouble in their recent reign atop the NFC North than the Bears or Lions. Kevin O’Connell makes his NFL debut with arguably the most talented veteran-laden roster any new coach inherits when his predecessor is fired. Rodgers has a vastly different set of receivers and, while they will come together and likely win the division again, they start 0-1. Take the Vikings on the Moneyline (-101).

New York Giants (+200) at Tennessee Titans (-240)

Many have already forgot that the Titans were the No. 1 seed in a stacked AFC last season. You don’t go from that to a Ground Zero rebuild just because you traded A.J. Brown. The Giants were a mess on offense last season, which is why the Titans are a respectable favorite, but not big enough for my liking (5.5 points at -110 for both teams). The Titans are going to run all over the Giants if Derrick Henry gets his typical mammoth workload. Take the Titans and lay the 5.5 points (-110).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ML) at Dallas Cowboys (ML)

The Cowboys are one of my picks to be a team that will be competitive but lose too many games against the other elite teams in the league – many of them in standalone or primetime games. They are a home underdog to the Buccaneers (2.5 points at -117 Buccaneers, -103 Cowboys). That number is almost begging Cowboys fans to take the bait and bite. That rarely ends well and the investment being asked means those making the lines think it should be higher, but don’t want to give away too many points. That’s fine. Take the Buccaneers and lay the 2.5 points (-117).

Denver Broncos (-270) at Seattle Seahawks (+220)

Russell Wilson plays his first game for someone other than the Seahawks in a stadium where he is beloved. Seattle made no attempt to replace Wilson and veteran retread Geno Smith gets the start. The Over/Under on this game is interesting (44.5 points at -110 for both) because when Wilson is at his best, he is running the ball and mixing in the pass – few are better at the 12-play, 8-minute drive to gas the clock. Denver should dominate this game and, if the Seahawks don’t score at least 14 points, it will be hard to hit the point. Take the Under (-110).

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