Sports blog information from USA TODAY.
The five best NFL player prop bets to make for the upcoming week.
This week we make our picks on a group of underachievers – stars who haven’t blown up as expected this year along with guys who have been career underachievers for the most part.
The Week 4 picks include a pair of draft-inflated quarterbacks fighting for their NFL lives as starters, two of the top three running backs in most fantasy drafts, and a sneaky wide receiver pick who has consistently blown up against his Week 4 opponent.
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Our five favorite wagers to make in Week 4.
The NFL apologizes for those forced to endure the “Meh!” trifecta of the Green Bay Packers-Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Denver Broncos-San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys-New York Giants in stand-alone games on national TV. It taught us that every game can be different but have a similar theme – a combination of playmaking defense and offensive ineptitude.
But as we get deeper into a season, we see the strengths and weaknesses (often injury-related) of teams that lets us hone in more on games to bet on. This week, we’re taking a moneyline pick for some return on investment, betting on a team that has to win, two games that the point spreads are too high, and another that’s too low.
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The smartest wagers to make in Week 4 from around the NFL.
Betting lines are much different this week than what they might have been if not for an insane Week 3.
The Buffalo Bills run an impossible 51 more offensive snaps than Miami (90-39), outgains the Dolphins by 272 yards, scored a butt-punt safety, had just one turnover, and held the ball for 40:40 of the 60 minutes – and lost.
The Kansas City Chiefs lost to an Indianapolis Colts team that couldn’t beat the Houston Texans or Jacksonville Jaguars – two games they historically win. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost a lackluster home matchup with the Green Bay Packers that left both teams looking worse. Russell Wilson drowned out the boos of the home fans in Denver just in time to win. Monday Night Football was an insomnia cure with the Dallas Cowboys now 2-0 under Cooper Rush.
So many of the narratives and storylines heading into Week 3 were dropped on their heads, which left many bettors heading home instead of to the pay window. Normalcy needs to return.
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Despite the Dolphins being the last unbeaten team in the AFC, they’re getting very little respect on the point spread, where the Bengals are solid home favorites (4.5 points at -115 Dolphins, -107 Bengals). The key here is that Joe Burrow isn’t getting protected. He’s been sacked 15 times and many of his 15 rushing attempts are escapes, not RPOs. Getting 4-and-a-hook on a team with a legit defense works for me. Take Miami and 4.5 points (-115).
The Vikings are modest favorites in London (2.5 points at -125 Vikings, +100 Saints). The Vikings aren’t playing at a high level but have enough to beat this version of the Saints, who are hurt on the offensive line and have a QB willing to throw 50/50 balls that too often are picked off. Take the Vikings and lay the 2.5 points).
I was stunned when I saw the Over/Under (47.5 points at -115 Over, -107 Under). I would have thought five points than this – the third-highest point on the Week 4 slate. Ideally, both teams want to run the ball and not leave winning or losing in the hands of their quarterbacks. What about that screams 30-23? Take the Under (-107).
The Chargers took it on the chin the day after Christmas last year and the hands of the Texans. At the time, the Chargers were 8-6 and controlling their own playoff destiny. Houston had scored nine or fewer points six times. The Texans won 41-29. The Chargers are a strong road favorite (5.5 points at -107 Chargers, -115 Texans). I believe there is a receipt coming for the Texans. Take the Chargers and lay the 5.5 point (-107).
Here we go again with the inflated Over/Under numbers. The Over/Under here (48.5 points at -115 Over, -107 Under) is behind only the Bills-Ravens (50.5). You have two teams that, when they’re playing their best, are run-heavy. Cleveland’s defense is legit and, if either team gets off to a 10-point lead, it will run on first and second down until it’s stopped. Take the Under (-107).
What a Rush! Coopermania is running wild in Dallas, but it’s the Cowboys defense that is making everything possible. The Cowboys are a modest home favorite (3.5 points at -122 Commanders, -102 Cowboys). I’m not convinced that Carson Wentz will fare any better against the Cowboys than he did against the Eagles. If your opponent can’t score 14 points, it doesn’t take a lot to cover the spread. Take the Cowboys and lay the 3.5 points (-102).
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As noted above, the Bills dominated Miami and still lost. I believe Buffalo is going to win this game, but the Bills are given a pretty significant number as a road favorite (3.5 points at +100 Bills, -125 Ravens). As always, the Ravens are the most banged-up team in the league, and the Bills will have enough of an answer for Lamar Jackson in the running game. Begrudgingly take the Bills and lay the 3.5 points (+100).
I still believe when all is said and done, if Derrick Henry stays healthy, the Titans win the AFC South. I have much less confidence in the Colts. The Colts are a solid home favorite (3.5 points at -122 Titans, -102 Colts). I think Tennessee can win this game outright. Giving away more than a field goal has my interest. Take the Titans plus 3.5 points (-122).
I don’t have a lot of confidence in the Jets on the road or the Steelers in general. However, these are the type of games Pittsburgh wins ugly. The Over/Under isn’t a shock (41.5 points at -110 for both), because neither offense has set the world on fire and both defenses have guys who make big plays. This won’t be a shootout. It will be about field position and field goals. Take the Under (-110).
The Jaguars are still being viewed as a “cute story” in 2022. Jacksonville’s defense is legit, and its offense is catching up. The Eagles are 3-0 and now have a multidimensional offense. Both teams have put up points, which is why the Over/Under is a little stiff (46.5 points at -112 Over, -108 Under). Two teams that were on the outside of the discussion of Super Bowl contenders are going to treat this like a playoff game. I see a lot of running and tempo control here rather than flinging and slinging. Take the Under (-108).
Two of the most brutal offenses in the league that have combined to score 11 touchdowns in six games … The Giants are favored in this improbable matchup of 2-1 teams (3.5 points at -125 Bears, +100 Giants). I can’t see either team blowing the other out unless there are defensive touchdowns in play, so I’ll take my chances with the team getting points. Take the Bears and 3.5 points (-125).
The Cardinals have been a huge disappointment, because they’ve been outscored 31-0 in the first quarter and 80-23 through the first three quarters. As a result, the Panthers are a slim, shady favorite (1.5 points at -108 Cardinals, -112 Panthers). The Cardinals desperately need to win this one and won’t get blown out early this time around. Take the Cardinals on the moneyline (-108).
I hate everything about this game. The Patriots are on life support for the season, and the Packers still haven’t found itself offensively. Green Bay is a massive favorite (9.5 points at -105 Patriots, -120 Packers). I don’t like a point spread that big, but I’m unconvinced that Patriots are capable of scoring 14 points without a defensive or special teams touchdown. I much more confident in Green Bay scoring 24. Take the Packers and lay the 9.5 points (-120).
The Raiders are 0-3 and angry. They were a playoff team last year and have a better roster now than they did then. The Broncos are a phantom 2-1, which is why the Raiders are small favorites (2.5 points at -105 Broncos, -120 Raiders). This is the game that doesn’t define Denver’s season. It’s the one that has to define the Raiders’ season. Take the Raiders and lay the 2.5 points.
The Bucs defense has been unheralded for the stellar job it has done to date. The Bucs offense hasn’t scored a touchdown in the first half all season. Tampa’s defense has been able to overcome it. The Chiefs lost last week, but remain road (if the game is actually played in Tampa) favorites (1.5 points at -110 for both teams). It’s never easy to bet against Tom Brady, but if he tries to get in a shootout with Patrick Mahomes, he’s playing into the Chiefs’ hands. Take the Chiefs and lay the 1.5 points (-110).
The 49ers beat the Rams both times they met last season, but they played LA’s game. It became more up-tempo than San Francisco prefers. The Niners want to slow you down and grind out wins. The scores in last season’s meetings were 31-10 and 27-24. Both teams are willing to open things up, which makes the Over/Under a little unpalatable (41.5 points at -112 Over, -108 Under). The Rams are going to try to make this an up-tempo game. Win or lose, that’s all it takes. Take the Over at 41.5 points (-112).
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Use our staff’s weekly pick’em against the spread and straight up for the win.
The Huddle staff makes its weekly NFL game picks every Thursday.
NFL picks are provided for straight up (moneyline) and against the spread (ATS) NFL pick pools.
Each week’s spread picks are graded by the line as of when the person entered their picks. This will create situations in which a movement of the line can result in two participants having the correct pick but with different teams chosen during an individual game.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
DMD – David Dorey, SG – Steve Gallo, KP – Ken Pomponio, HS – Harley Schultz, CC – Cletis Cutts, CJB – Cory Bonini, HCG – HC Green
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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
A snapshot look at the NFL betting lines and odds for Week 4 sports betting and DFS action.
A good way to start your weekly homework for DFS (daily fantasy sports) play is to analyze the early Vegas odds around Week 4.
These guys have a long history of making money off of setting the right game spread and points scored. So it can be an early indicator of teams to target due to high-scoring potential, and teams to avoid for the opposite reason.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Oct. 1, at 12:45 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.
OFF = No odds currently listed.
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).
Check out our staff’s weekly pick’em against the spread and straight up.
The Huddle staff makes its weekly NFL game picks every Thursday.
NFL picks are provided for straight up (moneyline) and against the spread (ATS) NFL pick pools.
Each week’s spread picks are graded by the line as of when the person entered their picks. This will create situations in which a movement of the line can result in two participants having the correct pick but with different teams chosen during an individual game.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.
DMD – David Dorey, SG – Steve Gallo, KP – Ken Pomponio, HS – Harley Schultz, CC – Cletis Cutts, CJB – Cory Bonini, HCG – HC Green
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
Week 4 betting guide for moneyline, ATS, and more!
We’re starting to get a feel for which NFL teams are looking to make a long-term run for the playoffs and who are likely to flounder. There are several key games that may help prove the case for some teams, including Carolina (3-0) at Dallas (2-1), Arizona (3-0) at the Los Angeles Rams (3-0), and Baltimore (2-1) at Denver (3-0).
However, the prime slate this week may be as good as its going to be as Tom Brady makes his historic appearance returning to Gillette Stadium. The week ends with what looked like a forced divisional matchup when the schedule came out but turns out to be the Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) at the Los Angeles Chargers (2-1 and fresh off a road win over Kansas City). Get your popcorn ready.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Wednesday, Sept. 29, at 10:20 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.
The Bengals are going to begin getting the respect they deserve. Being favored by 7.5 points (-110 for both teams) is a start. If Jacksonville wants to win, the Jags will need to run the ball. But, Cincinnati has allowed just 235 rushing yards (a 3.3-yard average) and that was against Dalvin Cook, David Montgomery and Najee Harris. If Jacksonville can’t run and rookie Trevor Lawrence is forced to throw, a brief history has illustrated that things will get ugly. Take the Bengals and lay the 7.5 points (-110).
Indy has made the playoffs two of the last three years but has started 0-3 and their season is on the brink of collapse. But, it should be noted that they played against Seattle, the Rams and Tennessee. So far, I’m 3-0 betting against the Colts, because they were the inferior team in all three matchups. They’re not inferior to Miami, which is a 2.5-point favorite. Take the Colts on the Moneyline (+110).
Minnesota is a home dog, but the Browns are the best they’ve faced to date this season. The Browns are a 2.5-point favorite (Cleveland -112, Minnesota -108). The Browns have the best 1-2 rushing punch in the league in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Cleveland has rushed 102 times for 524 yards and eight touchdowns. The Vikings’ run defense is allowing 4.8 yards per rush. Minnesota’s offense is playing extremely well, but the Browns run game will dictate the pace. Take Cleveland and the lay the 2.5 points (-112).
When you have the potential for a smackdown of this proportion, you have to give a college football number for a non-conference creampuff. The oddsmakers obliged – Buffalo is a 16.5-point favorite (-110 for both teams). If I’m going to bet on a coin flip, I’m going with the team capable of winning by 35, which Buffalo has already done this season. Take the Bills and lay the 16.5 points (-110).
Kansas City is currently in sole possession last place in the AFC West with a home division loss and a loss to a team that could have a tie-breaker edge in January as a result (Baltimore). The Eagles are coming off a short week after a humbling 20-point road loss to Dallas. While this one screams of taking the Chiefs and laying the points, the Over/Under of 54.5 points (Over -110, Under -110) is the safer play. Kansas City’s defense isn’t good, but Patrick Mahomes will supply 35 of the points needed. If the Eagles can get to 20 with a late garbage-time TD, it hits. Take the Over (-110).
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This is one the head-scratchers of the week. The Titans bring too little return to bet the Moneyline. The Over/Under is a tough call, because you have to ask how many points the Jets need to score to hit the Over. All that’s left is the point-spread, where the Titans are favored by 6.5 points (Tennessee -112, New York -102). Give me Derrick Henry and less than a touchdown? Yes, please! Remember the Titans and lay the 6.5 points (-122).
We are three weeks into the season and Chicago has been beaten by 20 points twice. I don’t care about the ghosts of Soldier Field. This team is a mess, and the jackals were calling for the coach’s head in Week 3. Detroit is winless (No! Really?). But, they hung with the 49ers, gave a blueprint for how to force Aaron Rodgers to run the ball and, if not for a NFL record-setting miracle, would have beaten the Ravens last week. I think I want to roll with the second of those two crews. Take the Lions on the Moneyline (+122).
Is there such a thing as two teams in a game you want nothing to do with? The Saints are a much different team at home – especially when you had to vacate home because a hurricane locked in on your town. This is the type of emotional return that Steve Gleason a legend. Pandemic and now this? The storybook says the Saints crush the Giants. But, I don’t trust Jameis Winston. The Over/Under is a scant 41.5 points (Over -108, Under -112). The Saints should march in a deafening way, but Winston will throw the Pick 6 that clinches low number getting hit. Take the Over (-108).
Both teams are relative disappointments. Washington’s defense was one of the best in the league last year but has disappointed this year. Atlanta’s defense is heinous as always. Washington’s defense should be better, and the Over/Under is 47.5 points (Over -105, Under -115). Neither team should be able to completely dominate each other, which could lead to longer drives or field possession games. Take the Under (-115).
The Cowboys are overrated (as usual) and every wins gets someone else jumping on the bandwagon. The truth is, they are what they are and, in the end, are mediocre. The Panthers are 3-0, but two of the wins have come against the Jets and Texans. The Panthers have only allowed 30 points, which takes doing even against lesser competition. The Cowboys are 4.5-point favorites (Carolina -115, Dallas -107). While the Cowboys are capable of dominating at home, the Panthers are solid enough defensively to keep it close and competitive. Take the Panthers and the 4.5 points (-115).
The 49ers are 2.5-point favorites, but nobody has told that to Russell Wilson. He has been extremely successful against a 49ers defense he has played for a decade. Many are predicting the Seahawks are going to be the also-ran of this division. But, with San Francisco so depleted in the run game, they can’t control the tempo as they’re used to. Seattle will find a way. Take the Seahawks on the Moneyline (+122).
The addition of Matthew Stafford has changed a lot of things in the NFC West. The best thing for those interested in taking the Over of 54.5 points (Over -117, Under -103) is that both teams are capable of coming back from 10 points down. Both teams have the defenses to keep this well under the point spread, but both teams force the issue on offense and enough big plays follow that style of play. Take the Over (-117).
Denver is a 0.5-point favorite, which is saying the unbeaten Broncos aren’t the better team – despite being 3-0 to start the season. Ironically, the Broncos are a 0.5-point favorite (Baltimore -108, Denver -112). The Ravens are the better team on both sides of the ball, so getting a half-point is a bonus as the same price on the Moneyline is a must-take. If you have a tie, bets on the Moneyline are a push. If given 0.5-point at the same odds, if the game ends tied, you win getting the half-point for the same price. Take the Ravens and the 0.5 points (-108).
The Steelers have the look of the team that wheezed down the stretch of last season. But, they went in and won in Buffalo in Week 1 and won’t be afraid to throw 50 times against a middle-of-the-road Packers defense. The Over/Under is 45.5 points (Over -110, Under -110). The Packers have the ability to put up 31 of their own, so it isn’t a stretch to think the Steelers can keep this tight one way or another. Take the Over (-110).
I quit betting against the G.O.A.T. in a big game some time ago, which did good by me in the playoffs last year. Tommy Boy is coming home and the entire Bucs organization is going to do what it can to make a happy homecoming. The Bucs are favored by 6.5 points (Tampa Bay -122, New England -102). I would lay 10 points and Brady, whose legacy just keeps adding chapters. Take the Buccaneers and lay the 6.5 points (-122).
The Chargers are coming off a huge win against Kansas City, but the Raiders are 3-0, including wins against the Ravens and Steelers. Both teams have played a lot of one-score games, which makes the Chargers being favored by 3.5 points (Raiders -122), Chargers (-102). The Chargers have every reason to think they will win this game, but they’re aren’t in a position to be giving away too many points. Take the Raiders and the 3.5 points (-122).
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).
