Tag: Nevada Wolf Pack

Wolf Pack Hunting for Marquee Victory over Saint Mary’s

Nevada vs. Saint Mary’s: Game Preview, TV, Radio, Live Stream, Odds, More A tale of two tempos as the Wolf Pack travel to the Bay Area Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire Nevada is still in search of its first marquee victory-and the Gaels …

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Nevada vs. Saint Mary’s: Game Preview, TV, Radio, Live Stream, Odds, More

A tale of two tempos as the Wolf Pack travel to the Bay Area

Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire

Nevada is still in search of its first marquee victory—and the Gaels certainly qualify

GAME DETAILS

WHO: Nevada (8-4, 1-0 MWC) vs. Saint Mary’s (11-2, 0-0 WCC)

WHEN: Saturday, December 21 — 8:59 P.M. PT / 9:59 P.M. MT

WHERE: Lawlor Events Center, Reno, NV

WATCH: ESPNU / ESPNU on WatchESPN (cable subscription required)

LISTEN: TuneIn

ALL-TIME: Saint Mary’s leads the series, 51-33

ODDS: Saint Mary’s -6, per KenPom

GAME NOTES

Nevada got back to their winning ways against Texas Southern on Wednesday, bringing their record to 6-1 over the past seven games. The Tigers came out swinging and led for portions of the first half, but the Wolf Pack eventually pulled away, coasting to a 91-73 victory in Reno.

Especially encouraging for Steve Alford is that the Nevada offense has woken back up after falling asleep at the wheel in their previous game against BYU. That day, the Wolf Pack struggled just to break 40.

But in the five games before that, they averaged 86.6 points per contest.

Sure, those numbers are somewhat inflated because Nevada plays at a high tempo, but this is still a team with a variety of scoring options. It will be interesting to see how the score plays out when the Wolf Pack run up against one of the slowest teams in the country.

Like the Wolf Pack, Saint Mary’s is a team that earns its accolades on the offensive end. Jordan Ford is a bona fide future pro, and fellow veteran Malik Fitts might not be far behind. They are a terrible twosome indeed, but there are experienced players up and down the Gaels’ roster.

Ford launched his All-American campaign pretty much from day one, when he scored 26 in an opening night win over Wisconsin. The senior is averaging 21.5 points per game on the year and is shooting a career-best 44.6% on his three-pointers.

Not only that, but he’s been taking more threes than ever.

And that has been the key for Randy Bennett’s squad in 2019-20. The Gaels rank best in the nation for three-point percentage, shooting a mind-boggling 47.3% on the season. Fitts is shooting right at that average, a clip even better than Ford’s. Tanner Krebs, meanwhile, is shooting over 50% on more than four attempts per game.

These are video game numbers, muted only by the snail’s pace at which the Gaels play their basketball.

Speaking of astronomical numbers, Saint Mary’s hung 96 points on Arizona State earlier this week, while holding the Sun Devils to just 56. It was a drubbing for the ages, one which has set the Gaels’ trajectory back toward the Top 25.

But Nevada could play spoiler on Saturday, while also nabbing a grand feather for their Selection Sunday cap.

GAME PLAN

On THE WOLF PACK’S POSSESSIONS…

Nevada likes to play fast, so expect them to try to get early shots from their guards. Jalen Harris, Lindsey Drew, and Jazz Johnson can all score in buckets. Harris is more an inside threat, while Drew and Johnson will launch three-pointers. Nisre Zouzoua and Zane Meeks can also provide some offense, but don’t expect much scoring punch out of big men Johncarlos Reyes and KJ Hymes.

Despite their frenetic pace, the Pack are remarkably careful with the ball, sporting a Top 30 turnover rate. The Gaels are pretty pedestrian when it comes to forcing turnovers, so Nevada shouldn’t feel too much pressure on the ball.

Saint Mary’s is good at keeping teams off the offensive glass, which certainly won’t help a Nevada squad that has struggled to get those boards all year long. The Gaels don’t foul much, either, so unless Nevada really starts pounding it inside, the Wolf Pack likely won’t be on the line very often.

If the offense shows up—remember, it didn’t against Nevada’s last WCC opponent—then the Wolf Pack should be plenty efficient. But the question remains just how many possessions they’ll end up getting. It should be noted that the Gaels’ defense does allow teams to play a little faster than their own offense’s tempo.

ON THE GAELS’ POSSESSIONS…

Though Nevada is going to try to push the pace, they may be racing to a red light. When the Gaels get the ball, they will look to grind things to a halt. After they make the Wolf Pack wait and wait and wait…they’ll likely score. This is one of the most efficient teams in the nation and they can score from inside as well as out.

That said, it might not be a bad idea to try to work inside a little more with Fitts. Nevada has defended the three-ball well this season, but they’ve been more susceptible to the two-pointer. Still, Reyes and Hymes do well on the defensive boards, even if they don’t get many offensive rebounds.

Saint Mary’s plays an even tighter brand of hoops than Nevada does, ranking in the top 20 in terms of ball security. And if the Gaels’ takeaway game is pedestrian, then the Wolf Pack’s opportunism is next to nonexistent. Nevada forces turnovers at one of the lowest rates in the country, so don’t expect many fast breaks. The Pack also sends opponents to the stripe a bit too often for their own good.

The Gaels are absolutely deadly on offense, but if the tempo gets away from them, it will be telling to see how they respond to being sped up out of their comfort zone.

GAME PREDICTION

SAINT MARY’s 74, NEVADA 72

The DPI projection for this game is very close, with the Gaels prevailing in a one-possession contest. With the game tipping off so late, that kind of exciting contest would be a welcome prize to the fans staying up past their bedtimes. This result would likely close the door on Nevada’s already-slim NCAA Tournament hopes, save for an unexpected romp through league play—or, more likely, a Mountain West Tournament title. But if the Wolf Pack can find their way to victory, it would finally give them the marquee victory that has eluded them throughout the non-conference season.

Andrew is a current USBWA member, covering college basketball for multiple outlets, including Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.

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Week 7 DPI Rankings: Lobos Rising After Six-Game Streak

It was back to non-conference play last week for the Mountain West. Not everybody was in action—and some who were now wish they hadn’t been.

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Week 7 DPI Rankings: Lobos Rising After Six-Game Streak

The top two stand pat, but plenty of movement below

Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire

New Mexico, Boise State climbing in the latest DPI rankings for Week 7

It was back to non-conference play last week for the league’s affiliate members on the heels of the opening salvo to the long Mountain West season. Not everybody was in action—and some now wish they hadn’t been.

But it wasn’t all misery.

Some teams are making big strides, including one squad trying to make a move into the uppermost echelon of the MWC.

Below are the DPI rankings heading into the heart of Week 7. If you’re new to the rankings or just want a refresher, head here for a rundown of how the DPI is calculated. The ratings below reflect games played through Tuesday, December 17. As always, non-Division I games are not counted in the DPI.

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#1 — SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS

Last Week: #1

The Aztecs moved to the #1 spot in the Mountain West last week and with no games since their close shave against San Jose State, they haven’t moved much up or down. Brian Dutcher’s team is still undefeated and boasts one of the best defenses in the country. Malachi Flynn’s star turn has propelled SDSU into the national polls, along with the play of Matt Mitchell, Yanni Wetzell, and Jordan Schakel. If KJ Feagin can provide a little more offense, this team could really turn in a special season.

#2 — UTAH STATE AGGIES

Last Week: #2

It’s been a bit of a rough patch for the Aggies over the past few games. They still have one of the two best rosters in the league, but they aren’t quite living up to preseason expectations so far. After losing to Saint Mary’s and looking underwhelming in their first two Mountain West games, Utah State fell to BYU on Saturday in Salt Lake City. It was only their second loss, but it’s a missed opportunity for a good out-of-conference win to put on their NCAA Tournament resume.

#3 — NEW MEXICO LOBOS

Last Week: #4

The Lobos have won six straight after toppling New Mexico State and Grand Canyon since the last DPI rankings were posted here. Though they aren’t playing at the level of SDSU just yet, this patchwork roster of homegrown talent and incoming transfers has performed admirably in the early going. JaQuan Lyle has been everything that Paul Weir could have wanted and more. Oh, and Carlton Bragg is averaging a double-double. So far, so good.

#4 — NEVADA WOLF PACK

Last Week: #3

The Wolf Pack looked like they were starting to turn a corner over the past few weeks, winning five straight games on either side of Thanksgiving. But last week, Nevada was the second casualty of BYU’s surge, along with Utah State and UNLV. The offense had been clicking on all cylinders, but immediately downshifted from a 100-point performance against Air Force to a 42-point outing against the Cougars. That kind of volatility that makes it tough to trust Steve Alford’s club.

#5 — BOISE STATE BRONCOS

Last Week: #6

Leon Rice is getting things back on track in Boise, but outside of their win over BYU—before Yoeli Childs came back, of course—the Broncos haven’t really beaten anybody. It was another rocky showing for Boise State last week, with a midweek loss to Tulsa preceding a blowout win over Alabama State. Derrick Alston is averaging 21 points and Justinian Jessup is finding his form. But the starting five is not the problem here; Rice’s team suffers from a lack of depth.

#6 — COLORADO STATE RAMS

Last Week: #5

The Rams jumped out to a promising start, but they’ve lost three of their past four games, including both of their opening Mountain West bouts. Mixed in there was a 72-68 win over South Dakota State, and while the Jackrabbits are not a bad squad by any means, that they played CSU so closely gives a good indication of where the Rams are right now. Niko Medved’s team gave in-state rivals Colorado a run for their money, but ultimately fell 56-48 over the weekend.

#7 — AIR FORCE FALCONS

Last Week: #8

The defense still leaves a lot to be desired, but recently, the Falcons have been getting better results than they did during a rough November. The new month has been kinder to the cadets, with Air Force winning four of its past five (Note: Tuesday’s 99-42  win over Johnson & Wales is not counted in the DPI). AJ Walker has taken an important step forward as an offensive option. The sophomore was averaging 20 points per game over the past three games coming into Tuesday.

#8 — FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS

Last Week: #10

Justin Huston finally got his team to a second Division I win on Saturday against Cal Poly. But the bigger story here is the seven losses that they have already incurred. Nate Grimes is doing exactly what was expected of him so far, averaging a double-double with 13.5 points and 10.4 rebounds per night. Guards Jarred Hyder and New Williams both have some good performances under their belts, but they haven’t been able to click at the same time. That needs to change.

#9 — UNLV RUNNIN’ REBELS

Last Week: #9

The Rebels didn’t play last week, so the bad taste of the 33-point loss to BYU back has been lingering for a week and a half. There have been a lot of close calls, with UNLV playing in four separate overtime games so far. They are shooting under 42% from the field and turning the ball over 15 times a night. Games against Pacific and Robert Morris this week offer TJ Otzelberger the chance to start making some headway in his first year at the helm.

#10 — WYOMING COWBOYS

Last Week: #7

Allen Edwards got his Cowboys out to a 3-3 start, but they have dropped five straight games, including their most recent defeat at the hands of Northern Colorado. The Bears didn’t just sneak past Wyoming, either—the Big Sky hopefuls handed the home team a 21-point drubbing at Arena-Auditorium. The defense has been fair to middling, but the offense has been dreadful thus far. The Cowboys are shooting under 50% on two-pointers and just over 30% on threes.

#11 — SAN JOSÉ STATE SPARTANS

Last Week: #11

There’s a bit of a running joke around here about which Spartan is most likely to transfer next year, since the sputtering Spartans have seen five double-digit scorers depart in the past three offseasons—including Brandon Clarke, who parlayed his post-SJSU star turn at Gonzaga into a budding NBA career. All jokes aside, Seneca Knight has separated himself as the Spartans’ top option, scoring 12.5 points per game. Hopefully the sophomore can remain an important building block for Jean Prioleau.

That’s it for this week. Check back next week to see who’s rising and falling in the Mountain West and be sure to visit the Dieckhoff Power Index daily for updated rankings on all 353 teams in Division I basketball.

Andrew is a current USBWA member, covering college basketball for multiple outlets, including Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.

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Nevada vs. Texas Southern: Game Preview, TV, Radio, Live Stream, Odds, More

Nevada vs. Texas Southern: Game Preview, TV, Radio, Live Stream, Odds, More Wolf Pack should be on high alert against pesky Tigers Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire With a big game this weekend, the Pack can’t afford to look past Texas …

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Nevada vs. Texas Southern: Game Preview, TV, Radio, Live Stream, Odds, More

Wolf Pack should be on high alert against pesky Tigers

Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire

With a big game this weekend, the Pack can’t afford to look past Texas Southern

GAME DETAILS

WHO: Nevada (7-4, 1-0 MWC) vs. Texas Southern (3-6, 0-0 SWAC)

WHEN: Wednesday, December 18 — 7:00 P.M. PT / 8:00 P.M. MT

WHERE: Lawlor Events Center, Reno, NV

WATCH: Nevada Sports Net

LISTEN: TuneIn

ALL-TIME: This is the first meeting between the two schools.

ODDS: Nevada -15, per KenPom

GAME NOTES

The Wolf Pack’s five-game winning streak ended last week when BYU trounced Nevada in Provo, 75-42. And with another WCC foe on the horizon—a date with Saint Mary’s awaits on Saturday—Steve Alford can’t afford to let his team look past Texas Southern.

The Tigers made quite a name for themselves last year as a giant killer, knocking off Oregon, Baylor, and Texas A&M during the non-conference season. Though this year’s squad isn’t quite as good as last year’s, Johnny Jones is sure to have some tricks up his sleeve for his old employer.

Between his previous head coaching gig at LSU and his current job at Texas Southern, Jones served as associate head coach for Nevada in 2017-18. Despite his team’s headline-stealing upsets, Texas Southern fell short of the NCAA Tournament last season and had to settle for a CIT Semifinals appearance in March.

The Tigers have yet to recreate any of the magic from last season, stumbling out to a 3-6 start, which includes one victory over non-Division I opponent Concordia (TX). Outside of a close call in a 69-63 loss to Wichita State, the average margin in the Tigers’ five other losses is 27 points per game.

Nevada comes into Wednesday with a record of 7-4, though none of the losses are necessarily prohibitive to their longshot NCAA Tournament hopes. The biggest issue for their resume is that they don’t have any good wins. This game against Texas Southern won’t provide that opportunity, but there’s a big juicy chance waiting on Saturday when Nevada travels to San Francisco to take on St. Mary’s.

But even though Texas Southern hasn’t scored their marquee upset yet, that doesn’t put Nevada in the clear. The Wolf Pack’s shooters have to be on target, lest they suffer their first objectively bad loss of 2019-20.

GAME PLAN

On NEVADA’S POSSESSIONS…

The green light is on for the Wolf Pack under Alford. Per Sports-Reference, the team ranks 37th in the nation in three-point attempts—and more importantly, 13th in the country in three-point makes. Jazz Johnson, Lindsey Drew, and Nisre Zouzoua are all shooting over 40% on more than four long-range shots per game. Jalen Harris, meanwhile, leads the team in scoring and does most of his scoring inside the arc.

Nevada takes great care of the ball, averaging just 12 giveaways per game. So they don’t lose many possessions to carelessness, but because they shoot so many threes, there aren’t as many opportunities for second chances on the offensive boards. But if any team is going to let the Wolf Pack crash the glass, it’s Texas Southern, who has one of the worst defensive rebound rates in the nation.

ON TEXAS SOUTHERN’S POSSESSIONS…

The Tigers have really struggled on offense, even in comparison to their lowly defense. If Steve Alford is giving his squad a permanent green light, Johnny Jones has his team stuck on red. Texas Southern shoots a very low number of three-pointers, perhaps because they are connecting on well under 30% of them. Tyrik Armstrong is the team’s leading scorer, but he is going to get a lot of attention from Lindsey Drew and the rest of Nevada’s backcourt.

All that attention will likely expose what is perhaps Texas Southern’s biggest weakness: their turnovers. The Tigers average a giveaway on nearly a quarter of their possessions, which means Nevada might finally have a chance to force a few. The Wolf Pack are near the bottom of the ranks in defensive turnover rate. Nevada has been a good defensive rebounding team, while Texas Southern is nothing special on the offensive glass.

GAME PREDICTION

NEVADA 86, TEXAS SOUTHERN 68

After laying an egg last week, expect the Wolf Pack offense to be back in form at home against Texas Southern. The Tigers may keep up for a while, but Nevada should be able to run away with this one over the full forty minutes. And if they want to hang on to their slim chances at an NCAA Tournament bid, they had better fall prey to this trap game.

Andrew is a current USBWA member, covering college basketball for multiple outlets, including Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.

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Nevada puts their 5-game winning streak on the line at BYU

Nevada at BYU: Game Preview, Prediction, TV, Radio, Live Stream, Odds, More Wolf Pack look to continue their recent offensive explosion Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire With both teams fielding scorers aplenty, be ready for a shootout in …

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Nevada at BYU: Game Preview, Prediction, TV, Radio, Live Stream, Odds, More

Wolf Pack look to continue their recent offensive explosion

Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire

With both teams fielding scorers aplenty, be ready for a shootout in Provo

GAME DETAILS

WHO: Nevada (7-3, 1-0 MWC) vs. BYU (7-4, 0-0 WCC)

WHEN: Tuesday, December 10 — 7:00 P.M. MT / 6:00 P.M. PT

WHERE: Marriott Center, Provo, UT

WATCH: ESPNU

LISTEN: TuneIn

ALL-TIME RECORD: BYU leads the series, 13-7

ODDS: BYU -7, per KenPom

GAME PREVIEW

If it feels familiar to see BYU taking on a Mountain West foe, fret not. The Cougars really are on a tour through the conference, with tonight’s game against Nevada being the fourth of five total games against the league for Mark Pope’s side.

While the games against Boise State and San Diego State didn’t break the Cougars’ way, BYU looked like the best version of themselves over the weekend as they took down UNLV, 83-50. The win was a righting of the ship, as BYU was coming off an overtime loss to Utah on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Nevada’s offense went out and had themselves a monster week, scoring 98 against Santa Clara and 100 against Air Force.

The Wolf Pack have bounced back beautifully after a disappointing 2-3 start to the year. The season’s low point so far was a 20-point loss to Davidson. That loss looked—at the time—like it might signal a rough first year for new head coach Steve Alford, but Nevada has now won five straight games.

And though it shouldn’t diminish the accomplishment too much, none of those wins came against likely NCAA Tournament participants. Bowling Green is probably the most likely of the five, to give some context.

But they’ve got a chance to reel in a big fish when they travel to Provo.

The Cougars have had their struggles, to be sure. The losses to Boise State and Utah aren’t great. But BYU has also beaten Houston, Virginia Tech, and UCLA on the year, in addition to the haymaker they landed on UNLV.

Long story short, BYU can play.

Thankfully, so can Nevada.

The combination of Jalen Harris, Jazz Johnson, and Lindsey Drew is starting to mesh really well. They’ve demonstrated the ability to take turns carrying the scoring load, with the trio combining for eleven 20-point games so far.

Most recently, it’s been Harris taking the lead. The former Louisiana Tech guard has been lighting it up. He’s averaging 24 points per game over the last three contests, including a 31-point performance against Air Force on Saturday. Harris is making a very strong case for All-MWC honors in the early going—and could even find his way into the POY conversation.

If you’re a fan of high-scoring basketball, look no further. This game pits two effective offenses and against two pedestrian defenses. BYU has gone for 83 or more points in its last three games. Nevada has scored more than 84 in three of its past four.

This could end up being the most exciting games of the evening.

BY THE NUMBERS

On Nevada’s offensive possessions…

Steve Alford should continue to ride the horse that got him to this five-game winning streak, putting the ball in the hands of his guards early and often. The Wolf Pack have been an excellent shooting team and they protect the ball as well as just about anyone in the country. But their shooters are going to have to get it right on the first try, because BYU has been great at limiting second-chance opportunities by opposing offenses. Also, don’t expect Nevada to get much from the line, as the Cougars don’t foul much.

On BYU’s offensive possessions…

The performance against UNLV was exactly what this BYU offense wants to do night in and night out. We know that the Cougars have shooters galore, but having the dominant interior presence of Yoeli Childs back should take their efficiency into uncharted waters. Johncarlos Reyes and KJ Hymes haven’t been terrible in the low post for the Wolf Pack, but Childs might be the best post player they’ll face all year (apologies to Neemias Queta). Aside from contesting his shots, Nevada will also need to limit second-chance points better than they’ve done so far on the season.

DPI PROJECTION: BYU 79.87, NEVADA 79.56

Normally I would round the scores off, but I think it’s important to show just how close these two are. The system is projecting this to be a wildly even game, with less than half a point separating the two teams. In the end, though, the DPI projects that the Cougars will defend their home court. But Nevada has every chance in the world to win this game.

If the Wolf Pack have any hope at an at-large bid—a slim prospect, most likely— they need to seize this opportunity on the road.

Andrew is a current USBWA member, covering college basketball for multiple outlets, including Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.

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