Tag: NCAAF

Why Ohio State, LSU and Clemson will remain unbeaten this weekend

Will the College Football Playoff feature three undefeated teams?

For the second straight week, Ohio State, LSU and Clemson are college football’s only remaining undefeated teams, and we’re predicting they keep their perfect records in Week 14 in their final regular-season games of the season.

We always want to see chaos and wild upsets, but with the way these top-3 powerhouse teams have been playing in the last several weeks, losses seem particularly unlikely.

With victories Saturday, Ohio State, LSU and Clemson will remain undefeated going into their respective conference title games next weekend, which means there’s a good chance three of the four College Football Playoff teams won’t have a loss. Last year, there were four overall unbeaten teams going into bowl season (Clemson, Alabama, Notre Dame and UCF), three were in the playoff and Clemson was the only one to finish with a perfect 15-0 record — and a national championship, of course.

And with three almost certainly playoff-bound teams without a loss yet, we could be looking at another undefeated national champ.

So ahead of Week 14’s games, here are our predictions for how the three remaining undefeated teams will play. They’re based on their upcoming opponents, how they’ve played so far, the College Football Playoff rankings and ESPN’s Football Power Index projections.

(All games are on Saturday unless otherwise noted.)

No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes 11-0

Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

Wins: Florida Atlantic, Cincinnati, Indiana, Miami (Ohio), Nebraska, Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Maryland, Rutgers, Penn State
Chance of winning out: 64.1 percent
Week 14 game: Michigan (Noon ET, FOX)
Undefeated after Week 14: Yes

For the first time this season, the Buckeyes were tested and survived. In what was their smallest margin of victory this season, they beat Penn State, 28-17, to keep their perfect record intact in their first of two big tests to close out the regular season. Ohio State has cruised through its first 11 games, while Michigan has been trending upward since its loss to the Nittany Lions in October. But despite the Wolverines playing four ranked teams so far, Ohio State is unlike any opponent they’ve faced this season.

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Going into Week 14, the Buckeyes still lead the nation averaging 49.4 points per game and are sixth in yards per game (530.4). Oh, and their defense is No. 1 in the country in points against (10.5), yards allowed (217.4) and yards per play (3.52). They’re the most balanced team in the country with three players, quarterback Justin Fields, running back J.K. Dobbins and defensive end Chase Young, in the Heisman Trophy conversation. This team is on another level, and since beating Penn State, its chance to win out — which includes the Big Ten championship game — got a big boost from 56.4 percent last week.

Even though this rivalry game is in Ann Arbor and, with momentum, Michigan is only an 9.5-point underdog, we’re still picking Ohio State to come out on top.

No. 2 LSU Tigers 11-0

Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Wins: Georgia Southern, Texas, Northwestern State, Vanderbilt, Utah State, Florida, Mississippi State, Auburn, Alabama, Ole Miss, Arkansas
Chance of winning out: 44.0 percent
Week 14 game: Texas A&M (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Undefeated after Week 14: Yes

In the preseason, everyone had high expectations for Texas A&M, and it was even ranked for the first seven weeks. But the Aggies have been beat up throughout a rough schedule that ends with what will surely be another tough loss to one of the best teams in the nation. Led by quarterback and Heisman frontrunner Joe Burrow, LSU’s offense has been dominant all season and enters this weekend ranked second nationally with 48.5 points and 561.1 yards per game. Burrow is on fire with the best completion percentage in the country (78.9), while running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire is practically unstoppable. The Aggies’ defense — which is ranked 21st with 321.5 yards per game and gives up 4.99 yards per play — won’t be able to slow the Tigers down.

Last season’s game between these two teams ended in a wild seven-overtime shootout with Texas A&M ultimately winning, 74-72. Not this year. Although LSU’s defense isn’t the commanding force fans have come to expect over the years, it should be enough to hold off the Aggies’ offense, which is averaging 419.6 yards per game (57th nationally) and relies heavily on quarterback Kellen Mond, who has only a 63.5 completion percentage.

LSU is a 17-point favorite at home, “where opponents’ dreams come to die.”

No. 3 Clemson Tigers 11-0

Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Wins: Georgia Tech, Texas A&M, Syracuse, Charlotte, North Carolina, Florida State, Louisville, Boston College, Wofford, NC State, Wake Forest
Chance of winning out: 87.7 percent
Week 14 game: South Carolina (Noon ET, ESPN)
Undefeated after Week 14: Yes

Here’s the thing about this matchup: If Clemson and South Carolina played each other in mid-October when the Tigers’ one-point win over UNC was fresh in everyone’s minds and the Gamecocks had just upset Georgia in overtime, we’d probably have a different answer about which team wins. But since the defending national champs’ iffy start to the season, they’ve absolutely wrecked the rest of their schedule with the No. 3 offense and No. 2 defense. Their margin of victory is more than 35 points, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence has a 27-8 touchdown-interception ratio and hasn’t been picked off since October 19. Clemson struggled early but recovered nicely, even if it does play a relatively weak schedule that currently features no ranked opponents.

And even if the Tigers were still having issues, we have no idea which South Carolina team is going to show up Saturday. Will it be the one that beat playoff-hopeful Georgia or the one that lost to Appalachian State (don’t ever pick against Appalachian State)?

Regardless, Clemson’s got this as a 27.5-point favorite on the road.

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3 key games that could impact the CFP picture in Week 14

What a loss in the final regular-season games could mean for teams like Alabama and Ohio State.

Welcome to Before The Snap, For The Win’s college football show where we’ll break down the sport’s trending storylines, examine each week’s biggest matchups and track the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy races.

For the College Football Playoff contenders, Week 14’s games are the last on their regular-season schedules. Not everyone needs to win to keep their conference championship and playoff hopes alive, but, obviously, no one wants to lose.

There are several games with playoff implications this weekend, and they’re even more fun because so many are rivalry matchups. But we’re breaking down three of the biggest and potentially most entertaining games that could impact the playoff picture.

No. 5 Alabama (10-1) at No. 15 Auburn (8-3)

When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Where: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn
TV channel: CBS
Spread: Alabama -3

John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Auburn closes out its brutal schedule with the Iron Bowl and is still looking to be a spoiler — and that’s what fans of other playoff bubble teams should be rooting for. With three losses, the Tigers aren’t playoff contenders at this point, but they could ruin Alabama’s shot and help keep the Crimson Tide out of the playoff for the first time since this format was implemented in 2014.

Alabama’s only loss of the season so far was to LSU earlier this month, and while that is keeping it from competing for an SEC championship, the playoff is still very much an option. But the Crimson Tide can’t afford a second loss if they want to contend for a national championship. And, with quarterback Mac Jones filling in for injured Tua Tagovailoa, they probably have to win by a solid margin to look as appealing as possible to the selection committee.

No. 1 Ohio State (11-0) at No. 13 Michigan (9-2)

When: Saturday, Noon ET
Where: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor
TV channel: FOX
Spread: Ohio State -9.5

As arguably the most balanced team in the country, Ohio State is on fire and cruising toward the College Football Playoff. And the discussion around it is more about getting the No. 1 seed over LSU, which is currently ranked No. 2, rather than whether or not it will make the playoff.

A loss for the Buckeyes actually wouldn’t mean a lot in terms of the playoff (but obviously, the rivalry is a different story). They’ve already clinched the Big Ten East and will play in the conference championship game no matter what. It would eliminate any wiggle room, should they lose the Big Ten title game, and could keep them from being one of the top-2 seeds. But Ohio State as a one-loss conference champ is getting in the playoff this year.

No. 12 Wisconsin (9-2) at No. 8 Minnesota (10-1)

When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Where: TCF Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
TV channel: ABC
Spread: Wisconsin -2.5

These two teams are fighting for a shot at the Big Ten title and a chance to try to upset Ohio State in Indianapolis next weekend. Both teams are still longshots to make the playoff and would likely have to win the conference championship game to get in, but with so much on the line, this game could get really good.

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A reminder that doing the dog urinating touchdown celebration is costly

A brief history of the celebration and what has happened as a result.

We here at For The Win are all for awesome touchdown celebrations.

But! If you do the dog peeing celebration, you may have to remind yourself that it’s going to be costly.

Just ask Ole Miss wide receiver Elijah Moore. He got into the end zone in the final seconds of the 2019 Egg Bowl against Mississippi State and proceeded to lift his leg. That got the attention of officials, who flagged him 15 yards for an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty … and kicker Luke Logan missed the extra point. (You can listen to Russian broadcasters laughing about it.)

That’s a reminder that another Ole Miss receiver, D.K. Metcalf, did the same thing against Mississippi State in 2017, and he was flagged for 15 yards. Granted, it was a situation in which the Rebels were up 24-6 (that was the Breeland Speaks Wave Game) in what would be a 31-28 upset.

And of course, we then have to go back to then-New York Giants receiver earlier that year, who did the original celebration that angered a lot of people including radio host Mike Francesa. He was flagged, and on top of that, the NFL fined him for $12,154 after what he did after his score against the Philadelphia Eagles:

So while you might find the celebration humorous, just remember officials don’t agree.

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Ole Miss’ disastrous Egg Bowl ending is even better with Russian announcers

What a wild ending to this rivalry game!

Thursday’s rivalry game between Ole Miss and Mississippi State, also known as the Egg Bowl, ended in one of the most absurd ways possible.

With just four seconds left as Ole Miss was down by seven, wide receiver Elijah Moore caught a two-yard touchdown pass. The extra point would have tied the game at 21-21 and likely sent it into overtime for an extra serving of college football on Thanksgiving.

But Moore’s touchdown celebration was too much. After crossing the goal line, Moore went down on his hands and knees and lifted his right leg, mimicking a dog urinating on the field. For that he received an excessive celebration penalty, which pushed the kicker going for the game-tying extra point back.

And then kicker Luke Logan missed, and Mississippi State won, 21-20, in one of the most ridiculous college football finishes ever.

This moment is even better if you listen to Russian announcers calling it. These guys were absolutely flabbergasted — like just about everyone else watching, really — that this sequence of events actually happened.

And then when Logan misses the extra point, one announcer couldn’t even try to contain his laughter and loses it.

Just incredible.

Mississippi State is now 6-6 and bowl-eligible this season, while Ole Miss fell to 4-8. There’s no guarantee the Rebels would have won if they made the kick and went into overtime, but it’s kind of unbelievable/amazing their season ended with a penalty for a player pretending to be a peeing dog.

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Charting the path to the College Football Playoff for every contender

From the top-3 teams to Baylor and Utah, here’s a guide to the CFP scenarios.

Although the College Football Playoff race this season seems a bit less complicated than previous seasons, it’s still challenging to keep track of which teams need to win or lose and when if your team is on the bubble.

Generally, regardless of which team you root for, you want the top-3 teams, Ohio State, LSU and Clemson, to win out because if they lose, depending on which team it’s to, they could still make the playoff and take the fourth spot. For example, if LSU loses to Georgia in the SEC championship game, both teams could get in, which is not ideal for everyone else. Though unlikely, the same could be true if Ohio State’s only loss is, say, to 12-1 Minnesota.

So ahead of the final regular-season games for the playoff hopefuls with conference championship matchups looming, here’s a guide to help you keep track of which teams to root for and against in the next couple weeks.

If you cheer for Ohio State, LSU or Clemson…

Nell Redmond-USA TODAY Sports

Obviously, this one is pretty simple. The top-3 teams are in total control, on 11-game win streaks going into Week 14 and have at least an 86 percent chance to make the playoff. All they have to do is keep winning, and they’re in the College Football Playoff. And realistically, Ohio State could lose to Michigan and LSU could lose to Texas A&M, and they likely would both still make it as one-loss conference champions.

With its strength of schedule, Clemson is probably the only team that cannot afford to lose either this weekend against South Carolina or in the ACC title game to have a shot at defending its national championship.

However, for these three fan bases, you also want to probably want to root for Auburn to beat Alabama this weekend, which would hand the Crimson Tide their second loss and probably keep them out of the playoff for the first time. An Alabama loss wouldn’t help ensure Ohio State, LSU or Clemson contend for a title, but come on: Do you really want to have to deal with Alabama in the playoff?

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If you cheer for Georgia…

You want everyone else to lose and lose multiple times. The Bulldogs are 28.5-point favorites against Georgia Tech on Saturday, so that game really shouldn’t be an issue. But to make the playoff, they will likely have to upset LSU in the SEC championship game, which college football math suggests isn’t actually that outrageous of a goal. The Tigers currently have a 52.4 percent chance to beat Georgia, according to ESPN’s FPI, which makes this game basically a coin toss and probably a big reason why the Bulldogs currently have a 50 percent chance to make the playoff.

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

But Georgia will also want a backup plan, however unlikely it may be. If it loses a close SEC championship game and finishes 11-2, it could possibly still make the playoff if the selection committee views it relatively favorably compared with potential two-loss conference champions around the country.

Bulldogs fans should root for Alabama to lose to Auburn and Minnesota to lose to Wisconsin, in addition to two-loss Big 12 and Pac-12 winners. Since it seems unlikely that Baylor will fall to Kansas this week, the best bet is for Oklahoma to lose to Oklahoma State for its second defeat of the season but then win the Big 12 championship game. And then in the Pac-12, you want two-loss Oregon to beat likely Utah in the title game. (If Utah loses to Colorado this weekend, USC will represent the Pac-12 South, which means the conference will have a two-loss champ either way.)

If you cheer for Alabama…

You want to beat Auburn, obviously, and then sit back and watch the college football world burn so your team’s 47 percent chance to make the playoff gets a boost. You need the top-3 teams to win out and maintain their positions, but you especially want LSU to beat Georgia in the SEC championship game.

From there, you’re cheering for Georgia’s backup plan. You want as many playoff contenders as possible, particularly the conference champions, to have a less favorable resume than the Crimson Tide. And, if the top-3 teams win out, Alabama probably will be up against Georgia, Oklahoma, Baylor and Utah for that final playoff spot. So two losses for everyone!

If you cheer for Utah…

And your team doesn’t beat Colorado, none of this matters. Utah lost to USC, currently second in the Pac-12 South, back in September. So another loss would put it in a tie with the Trojans, who would then win the tiebreaker. But Utah is a 28.5-point favorite over the Buffaloes, and if it does, it will advance to the Pac-12 championship game. Beat Oregon and win the conference, and it will look pretty good to the selection committee as a one-loss champ.

But for good measure, Utah fans should also root for Alabama to lose to Auburn and for a two-loss Big 12 winner, which would certainly help it in the eyes of the committee.

If you cheer for Oklahoma or Baylor…

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

You’ve got a one-loss team with a shot at the conference title. But first, Oklahoma needs to beat Oklahoma State, and Baylor needs to beat Kansas in Week 14. They could both lose and still play in the conference championship game, but they’d probably be eliminated from the playoff picture.

Both fan bases want their team to emerge as a one-loss Big 12 champion, and the best-case scenario would also include a decisive victory. But to all but ensure a playoff berth, fans should also root for Auburn over Alabama and a two-loss Pac-12 winner, which would likely Oregon.

If you cheer for Minnesota or Wisconsin…

You’re probably excited/very nervous about their Big Ten West matchup Saturday because the winner will play Ohio State in the conference title game. Wisconsin is a slim 3-point favorite in Minneapolis.

Now, both teams have ridiculously low chances to make the playoff with Wisconsin at just two percent and Minnesota at one percent. However, if the winner of Saturday’s game can ultimately upset Ohio State, it might be hard for the selection committee to deny it a playoff spot — especially if we’re talking about a one-loss Minnesota team. In that scenario, it seems like the Buckeyes would still get in if that’s their only loss, so the committee really couldn’t justify putting the Big Ten runner-up in without the champion.

Winning the conference is really the only hope here. A loss at any point would be Minnesota’s second and Wisconsin’s third, and that won’t earn a playoff spot without some colossal chaos around the country — and even then, it might not be enough.

If you cheer for Penn State, Florida, Michigan or Oregon…

Better luck next season.

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How Penn State’s, Oregon’s losses impact the College Football Playoff picture

The CFP race has been simplified.

Welcome to Before The Snap, For The Win’s college football show where we’ll break down the sport’s trending storylines, examine each week’s biggest matchups and track the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy races.

Two more College Football Playoff lost in Week 13, and the playoff race continues to be simplified.

Penn State lost to now-No. 1 Ohio State, while Oregon fell to Arizona State. It was the second loss of the season for both the Nittany Lions and the Ducks, which effectively ends their playoff runs. No two-loss team has ever been invited to the playoff, and for that to happen this year, the team would have to be a conference champion, and we’d need some late chaos around the other conferences. Additionally, Oregon could still win the Pac-12, but Penn State has no chance to be a conference champ.

So what’s the larger impact of Penn State’s and Oregon’s losses?

Penn State coach James Franklin  (Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports)

Behind Ohio State, LSU and Clemson — assuming the top-3 teams win out — it means that remaining fourth playoff spot will some down to Alabama, Oklahoma or Baylor and Utah.

Also, the Big Ten’s chance to go from having no teams in the last two years to two teams in is over. For a while, it seemed like the Nittany Lions could join Ohio State in the playoff if the right scenario played out, but Penn State needed to beat the Buckeyes for that to happen.

For Oregon, the loss hurts the Pac-12 in the eyes of everyone else, as it tries to push for a serious playoff contender.

But the good news is it still has Utah, which is 10-1, No. 6 in the latest playoff rankings and has a shot to win the conference title game. It still will have to beat Oregon, which isn’t looking quite as good as it was a couple weeks ago, but it might be hard to deny a one-loss Pac-12 team a shot at the playoff.

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NCAA upholds postseason ban for Mizzou football

The Tigers (5-6, 2-5 SEC) still have a chance to finish with an even .500 record this fall, but the team won’t be playing for a bowl game the day after Thanksgiving after the NCAA Tuesday upheld its postseason ban for the program.

The Tigers (5-6, 2-5 SEC) still have a chance to finish with an even .500 record this fall, but the team won’t be playing for a bowl game the day after Thanksgiving after the NCAA Tuesday upheld its postseason ban for the program.

5 questions with Kirk Herbstreit about the CFP, Chase Young and why Utah is overlooked

Which team would win a hypothetical matchup between LSU and Ohio State?

Ahead of college football’s Week 14, there are only a handful of scenarios remaining for which four teams could compete for a national championship. Some of them depend on Saturday’s games, while others could play out based on the conference championship matchups in a couple weekends.

Currently, LSU and Ohio State are in a battle for the No. 1 seed, while undefeated Clemson looks like the third lock for the playoff. But that fourth spot, should the top-3 teams win out, is up for grabs among teams like Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Baylor and Utah.

So before the final regular-season games for the College Football Playoff contenders, For The Win spoke with ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit about the varying scenarios, the top teams’ chances and the Heisman Trophy race.

This interview has been condensed and edited for clarity.

1. If LSU and Ohio State played each other this weekend, who would win?

Oh man, how about this: If they played 10 times, I think it would be 5-5.

I think LSU’s offense up to this point has been prolific. It’s been as good as I can remember seeing. This year, if you were to ask me to look back at Thanksgiving about what’s been the pleasant surprise, I would not just say LSU; I would say LSU’s offensive style, their quarterback — who I think’s going to win the Heisman in Joe Burrow — the approach by their head coach, Ed Orgeron. They’re attacking every game, they’re not taking a conservative approach offensively, which they’ve been known for for years and years.

Joe Burrow, Justin Fields (Getty Images, AP Photo)

That being said, Ohio State offensively and defensively, has been — I think you could argue along with Clemson — the most complete team in the country as far as every week. So that would be a tough one.

Neutral site, I don’t know what Vegas would say. I hope we get a chance to see that game play out because it would be a fun championship game.

2. If LSU, Ohio State and Clemson are the first three playoff teams, which one gets the last spot?

This weekend will have a big impact. But if Georgia beats LSU, which would be, obviously, a major upset, I think Georgia would be in, and Ohio State would move up to No. 1, Clemson would move to No. 2, Georgia would be at No. 3, and I think LSU would still be the fourth team. That would be the easy answer.

If LSU, Ohio State and Clemson were to win out, that eliminates Georgia, you’ve got Alabama at No. 5 without going to an SEC championship game. And then you’ve got Utah. Oregon might be out, but Utah is not. And I think Utah holds a trump card. If they beat Colorado and ultimately go to the Pac-12 championship and beat Oregon, I think Utah will leapfrog Alabama. And, if Georgia loses to LSU, I think Utah would end up being the fourth team to go.

I think Alabama’s only chance is to win, and they’ve got to be dominant for the committee to throw out the metrics and just say: “We think Alabama’s better than Oklahoma [and Utah].” With all that being said, I think it’s really setting up for eventually Utah or Oklahoma to go by Alabama if the top three keep winning.

3. Do you think Oregon’s loss to Arizona State this weekend hurt Utah’s chances?

Kyle Whittingham (Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports)

Not at all, no. Here’s the thing with Utah: A lot of people east of the Rockies, if I asked them to name one player on Utah’s team, they couldn’t. So it’d be easy to look at Utah and not necessarily give them much credit or the benefit of the doubt because they play in a conference that most people don’t respect and most people don’t watch. So when you see Utah up there, you’re like, “Utah? Why are they up there?”

People don’t respect that brand, and I think that’s unfortunate because Kyle Whittingham is an incredible coach, and they’ve got a great team this year. If their only loss is on the road on a Friday night against USC, and they end up being Pac-12 champs, no way they’ll leave Utah out if they’re 12-1.

4. ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor updates each team’s chance to make the playoff weekly, and it seems largely accurate. But have you ever seen a percentage on there that was a bit puzzling?

Right now is one. This week, Utah is at nine percent to make the playoff. You’ve got the main three up there with Ohio State, Clemson and LSU at 86 percent or higher. Then there’s a pretty good drop to Georgia and Alabama. Oklahoma is ironically at 12 percent.

Lincoln Riley and Jalen Hurts (Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports)

This is subjective analysis. Everybody can weigh in on this. The only thing that matters is what the committee thinks. And if you follow what the committee has done, it’s interesting that our Allstate Playoff Predictor has Oklahoma at 12 percent and Utah at nine percent, because to me, I’ve really felt that they’ve sent us a loud message that they don’t necessarily respect the Big 12. If you go back to last week’s [College Football Playoff] rankings, Oklahoma after beating Baylor, they only moved up one spot to No. 9. Baylor was all the way down at No. 14 with one loss.

If Utah keeps winning, and they win a conference championship, I just don’t know what Oklahoma has to do to climb. And personally, I don’t see Oklahoma getting by Utah if Utah keeps winning. And the only reason I say that is based on the first few weeks with the way the rankings have shook down and how they’ve really sent a message: They’re not impressed by the Big 12.

5. Realistically, could Chase Young win the Heisman? Should we start calling it the best offensive player award if defensive players aren’t often finalists?

I remember when Ndamukong Suh was dominating every week in ‘09 and he ended up making it to New York City, and you could have made a pretty strong case for him that year that he deserved serious consideration.

Chase Young, I think if he didn’t have a two-game suspension and miss the Maryland and Rutgers games, who knows how many stats he could have had in those games? I think 20 sacks was very realistic for him, which is unheard of.

Chase Young (Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports)

For the first seven, eight, nine weeks, everybody was talking about Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Chase Young, Justin Fields, Tua [Tagovailoa]. It’s almost like we’re at the point where it’s Joe Burrow, last man standing, and then everybody else. Most people are going to put Joe Burrow in that No. 1 spot with two weeks to go, but who are you going to put at two and three?

Do you penalize Chase Young because he was suspended for two games? Do you recognize how he handled that situation and how forthcoming he was? Do you forgive him for that and keep him on your ballot? I have no idea. But one thing’s very clear. If you’re asking if the Heisman Trophy is supposed to go to the most outstanding player in college football, I don’t know how Chase Young can’t be on a ballot.

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College Football Playoff: Georgia still has a better chance than Alabama, Oklahoma

Could Georgia upset LSU in the SEC title game in a couple weeks?

Ohio State, Clemson and LSU have the top-3 spots in the College Football Playoff locked up — at least, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor. A couple weeks ago, their chances to make the playoff were comfortably in the 80 percent range, and now, the Buckeyes are nearly at 100 percent while the two Tigers teams are in the high 80s.

The obvious takeaway here with such absurdly high percentages is that the Playoff Predictor — an algorithm based on a variety of factors the selection committee considers when ranking teams — expects those three teams to win their final regular-season games and, ultimately, their respective conference championships, which would basically guarantee their playoff berths.

None of this is new. The only undefeated teams left, these three programs have dominated their schedules, and even when they’ve been challenged, they survived. Here are their chances to make the playoff and win the national championship, according to the Playoff Predictor.

1. Ohio State (11-0)

Playoff: 95 percent
Win championship: 37 percent

2. Clemson (11-0)

Playoff: 87 percent
Win championship: 27 percent

3. LSU (11-0)

Playoff: 86 percent
Win championship: 15 percent

(AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

So let’s assume Ohio State, Clemson and LSU perform exactly the way they’re expected to, and look at the teams fighting for the fourth and final playoff spot.

4. Georgia (10-1)

Playoff: 50 percent
Win championship: 7 percent

5. Alabama (10-1)

Playoff: 47 percent
Win championship: 12 percent

Georgia has the fourth-best chance to make the playoff after beating Texas A&M, 19-13, in Week 13. But if our above scenario plays out, it means the Bulldogs will lose to LSU in the SEC championship game, which would effectively end their playoff hopes. However, should Georgia win the conference title game, both it and LSU could get in.

And with the Playoff Predictor giving the Bulldogs a 50 percent chance to make it, perhaps an upset in the SEC championship game is more likely than everyone thinks.

Going into the final week of the regular season — Georgia plays Georgia Tech on Saturday — the Bulldogs have a 46.5 percent chance to win out, which includes the conference title game, according to ESPN’s FPI. To compare, LSU, which plays Texas A&M on Saturday, only has a 44.2 percent chance to win out, and, at this point, is only slightly favored to win the SEC championship game. Georgia eventually beating LSU is the conference’s best-case scenario but the worst for just about everyone else.

(Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports)

After losing to LSU earlier this month, Alabama has no room for error, which means beating Auburn in Week 14 and then sitting back and watching the conference championship game play out.

The best-case scenario for the Crimson Tide making their sixth straight playoff appearance is for LSU to beat Georgia, so then their only loss is to arguably the best team in the nation. But should that happen, they also need to hope the selection committee views it more favorably than a potential one-loss Big 12 champ in Oklahoma or Baylor or a one-loss Pac-12 champ in Utah. How much do conference championships really mean?

6. Oklahoma (10-1)

Playoff: 12 percent
Win championship: 1 percent

7. Utah (10-1)

Playoff: 9 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

Oklahoma has won its last three since being upset by Kansas State, but the wins haven’t been pretty. In Week 13 against unranked TCU, the Sooners had a 21-0 lead at one point before letting the Horned Frogs come back. They held on for a 28-24 win after beating Baylor by three and Iowa State by one the previous two weeks. That, combined with their loss to unranked Kansas State, is likely why both the Playoff Predictor and selection committee don’t have Oklahoma higher. Its best-case scenario is an Alabama loss this weekend and LSU winning the SEC — plus winning the Big 12, obviously.

Although its playoff chances are in the single digits, Utah is still very much in the mix, assuming it can win the Pac-12. Oregon losing in Week 13 to Arizona State hurts Utah a little because they both arguably needed each other ranked highly to bolster their playoff arguments. But Utah could still make it, especially if the Big 12 has a two-loss champ and Alabama falls to Auburn.

8. Michigan (9-2)

Playoff: 3 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

9. Baylor (10-1)

Playoff: 3 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

10. Florida (8-2)

Playoff: 2 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

See the full Playoff Predictor list here.

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Wisconsin kicker’s wild 62-yard field goal is the longest of 2019 season

What a kick!

Why not try to kick a field goal with a four-point lead and two seconds left in the first half? Credit to Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst for going for it in that situation against Purdue on Saturday.

The Badgers were up, 21-17, with a drive that started on their own 27-yard line with 22 seconds remaining in the second quarter. They moved up the field quickly, and with only a couple seconds left, they could have taken a knee or kicked a field goal.

Thankfully, they chose the latter, and senior kicker Zach Hintze stepped up. He narrowly made the kick, but it was good nonetheless. And just, wow.

The Badgers entered the break with a 24-17 lead over Purdue.

Going into Week 13’s games, four players were tied for the longest field goal of the season at 57 yards. But now, Hintze stands alone at the top of that category.

It wasn’t, however, the longest field goal in college football history. That honor goes to Ove Johansson, who kicked a 69-yarder for Abilene Christian University, now an FCS team, in 1976, as NCAA.com noted earlier this year.

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