Ohio State is a big favorite at home against Penn State in Week 13.
Welcome to Before The Snap, For The Win’s college football show where we’ll break down the sport’s trending storylines, examine each week’s biggest matchups and track the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy races.
In the highly anticipated Big Ten showdown this week between No. 2 Ohio State and No. 8 Penn State, which team needs the win more? Which team could take a loss and keep its College Football Playoff hopes alive? Both? Neither?
The Nittany Lions, somewhat unexpectedly, lost earlier this month to then-No. 17 Minnesota, but they still have a chance to be a one-loss Big Ten champion, which would almost certainly lead to a playoff invitation this year.
James Franklin, Ryan Day (USA TODAY Sports)
However, lose to Ohio State and it’s probably over for them, barring some catastrophic meltdown in multiple other conferences. The playoff committee has never included a two-loss team, and for that to happen for the first time, that team would probably have to be a two-loss conference champ. If Penn State falls to the Buckeyes, that’s likely the end of its playoff hopes.
Even though Ohio State enters this game with a perfect 10-0 record, it probably can’t afford to lose either. Losing to Penn State would keep the Buckeyes out of the Big Ten championship game, meaning they’d likely be fighting for that fourth playoff spot against other one-loss teams, which might have a conference championship card to play.
So perhaps it’s possible that, despite their difference records, neither team could survive a loss an still make the College Football Playoff.
Ohio State is an 18.5-point favorite at home against Penn State on Saturday (Noon ET, FOX).
Tigers are and will continue to be without starting linebacker Michael Divinity because the junior has been and will remain ineligible.
LSU is the best college football team in the country, sitting atop the USA Today Amway Coaches Poll, the AP Poll, and the College Football Playoff rankings. But the Tigers are and will continue to be without starting linebacker Michael Divinity because the junior has been and will remain ineligible.
The Monday before LSU visited Alabama, Tigers (10-0, 6-0 SEC) head coach Ed Orgeron announced that Divinity had left the team “for personal reasons.” On the SEC conference call Wednesday in Week 12, Orgeron confirmed that the athlete was simply not allowed to play by athletic department rules.
“He is unable to play, and it will be a while until he’s able to play. He will not be eligible,” Orgeron said.
Ineligibility can stem from academic issues and from team rules violations, such as multiple positive drug tests. USA Today confirmed with multiple sources that Divinity tested positive for a fourth time for marijuana just before the Nov. 4 announcement that he would not play versus the Crimson Tide (9-1, 6-1 SEC).
According to LSU’s Athletic Department Assistance Program’s Substance Abuse Policy, a fourth failed drug test warrants “a suspension from 50% of countable contests,” including postseason games.
Orgeron said Wednesday that the only game that there is even a chance that Divinity returns for would be the National Championship Jan. 13.
“If there’d be a championship game, maybe he may be eligible for that,” Orgeron said. “Up until then, Mike will not be eligible to play.”
Tua Tagovailoa suffered a season-ending injury, which means Alabama has to turn to backup Mac Jones to close out the season.
Welcome to Before The Snap, For The Win’s college football show where we’ll break down the sport’s trending storylines, examine each week’s biggest matchups and track the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy races.
Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was carted off the field with a hip injury in the second quarter of the Crimson Tide’s blowout win over Mississippi State on Saturday. The Heisman Trophy candidate had successful surgery Monday, and “he’s in good spirits and he’s doing well,” coach Nick Saban told reporters Wednesday.
Tagovailoa’s injury is a huge loss for Alabama and college football fans (whose teams don’t play the Crimson Tide), so how will that impact the team’s shot at making the College Football Playoff for a sixth straight year?
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
Despite losing their starting quarterback, the Crimson Tide’s chance to make the playoff actually went up a little. According to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, they have a 44 percent chance to make the playoff, which is up from 40 percent last week and fourth-highest after Ohio State (86 percent), LSU (85 percent) and Clemson (84 percent).
However, they’re still No. 5 on the latest CFP rankings behind Georgia, but the Playoff Predictor, which gives the Bulldogs a 39 percent chance to make it, is likely anticipating a loss in the SEC championship game, which would then drop the team out of the top four.
Alabama sophomore quarterback Mac Jones is expected to take over for Tagovailoa. Jones started late last month in the Crimson Tide’s 48-7 win over Arkansas while Tagovailoa was recovering from an ankle injury, but that game, plus a handful of other plays in blowout wins, doesn’t seem like a large enough sample size to judge how well Jones could play against a team like Auburn, which is looking to play the spoiler in Alabama’s season.
This season, Jones has completed 45-of-65 passes (69.2 percent) for 566 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. Against the Razorbacks, he went 18-for-22 for 235 yards and three touchdowns, but it’s hard to judge his performance and potential from one game against a team that’s currently 0-6 in the SEC.
Alabama has an all-star group of receivers in DeVonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III, not to mention insanely athletic running back Najee Harris, who can help Jones as he transitions into that starting spot. But it’s still unclear whether he can lead the Crimson Tide to wins against Western Carolina on Saturday and Auburn in the regular-season finale.
If Alabama wins out and finishes 11-1, it needs to hope LSU wins the SEC championship game while other contenders, such as Oklahoma, Oregon or Penn State, lose again.
There was a frightening scene at Saturday’s Georgia game against Auburn involving photographer Chamberlain Smith, who was knocked unconscious after Bulldogs running back Brian Herrien accidentally rammed into her after he ran out of bounds.
Smith was taken from the field in a stretcher and brought to a hospital. But she sent a Twitter update a day later to inform everyone that although the incident was “very scary,” she ended up with “nothing more than a concussion and some bruises.”
On Tuesday, she decided to share the photo she snapped with her camera right before the collision, and it’s a good one!
For those of you asking if I got “the” shot, here it is!! The last thing my camera & I saw before being tackled. @brianherrienn, I hope you LOVE this photo!! ❤️🏈📷 #godawgspic.twitter.com/mxWfyWhcUU
Also, it’s worth mentioning Herrien has been a complete class act about the incident:
I want to really shout out @brianherrienn … after the collision he really was genuinely concerned and was waiting around to see the photographers condition. They literally had to tell him to go to his sideline. Even though he’s a competitor in the moment, he showed compassion. pic.twitter.com/aQjOMvvcuE
Lawrence caught up with the 16-year-old girl who went viral for how much they look alike.
Not too many people can play football like Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence, but there’s actually a handful who look like him. And that recently led to multiple doppelgängers sharing videos on TikTok highlighting just how much they look like the Tigers’ star.
He was watching a video of Bella Martina — a 16-year-old girl from Alpharetta, Georgia, The Athletic reported — imitating different photos of him while wearing a Clemson jersey and headband, just like he does. And she really nails the impression.
Well Saturday ahead of the Tigers’ game against Wake Forest, Lawrence and Bella finally met.
In a story detailing how Martina realized she looks like Lawrence all the way to her experience going viral, she told The Athletic:
“I don’t know what I would say to him (if we ever met) because I don’t know how he would react,” Martina said. “I’d be like, ‘Hi! My name is Bella. You’ve seen my TikToks. We have the same face.’ I’d be so overwhelmed. I might just squeal.”
Martina told The Athletic that a friend told her about her striking resemblance to Lawrence in their history class, adding: “Everybody was like, ‘Oh my gosh. It’s kind of scary the accuracy.’”
The “Fixer Upper” couple made a big entrance on a tracker with Chip behind the wheel.
Lee Corso and ESPN’s College GameDay crew were joined by two guest pickers in Week 12 who are practically as synonymous with Waco, Texas as Baylor is.
Fixer Upper couple and Baylor alumni Chip and Joanna Gaines showed up to Saturday’s broadcast, ahead of No. 10 Oklahoma’s game against undefeated No. 13 Baylor, in style on a tractor to make their picks. Unsurprisingly, Chip was super excited to be behind the wheel of that thing.
The Sooners are 10.5-point favorites on the road, and while Corso made his famous headgear pick, he did one of his classic fake-outs, first going with Oklahoma in what he called “an easy pick.”
But he quickly changed his mind in favor of Baylor, and Chip and Joanna joined him with some Bears headgear of their own.
"Wait a minute. That's the wrong head."
Lee Corso pump-faked Baylor fans with his headgear pick 👀
Their fandom for Baylor is well documented on HGTV’s Fixer Upper.
In 2017, former Baylor quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III appeared in an episode about renovating the house of a Vietnam War veteran. Griffin’s Family of 3 foundation partnered with the Gaines couple to make the project happen, and Chip geeked out over simply being in the general vicinity of Griffin.
The Oklahoma-Baylor game kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
There’s no LSU vs. Alabama on the slate, but there is a whole slew of massive games that will shape the final few weeks of the season and, potentially, the College Football Playoff.
If you’re looking to get in on the sports betting action this weekend, be sure to sign up with BetMGM to take part in any of these games or other action on the schedule.
5. Michigan State at Michigan
Michigan quarterback Shea Patterson leads the Wolverines against Michigan State. Tommy Gilligan – USA TODAY Sports
Why You Should Bet On Michigan State: The Spartans are way, way, way overdue for something positive. They’ve had a rough run, they collapsed against Illinois, and they’re far better than they’ve been playing. The offensive line is good enough to handle the tough Michigan defensive front, and the run defense has been nasty against everyone but Ohio State and Wisconsin. But …
Why You Should Bet On Michigan: The Michigan State passing game has gone bye-bye. Brian Lewerke is struggling, he’s not accurate, and the offense is way too inconsistent. Ever since halftime of the Penn State game, Michigan has been fantastic defensively, going on a great 10-quarter run to get back into the hunt for a New Year’s Six game. Shea Patterson has settled down behind center, the running game is OK, and overall, Michigan is playing well. Michigan State isn’t.
Prediction: The rested Wolverine team will be a little bit sluggish out of gate, but the defense will take over as the game goes on. The Spartan O will stall, the Wolverine attack will go on a few late first half scoring drives, and Michigan will win by more than two touchdowns.
– CFN Full Michigan State at Michigan Game Preview & Prediction
4. Navy at Notre Dame
Navy quarterback Malcolm Perry will try to give Notre Dame fits this weekend. David Butler II – USA TODAY Sports
Why You Should Bet On Navy: The Navy ground game is working at a whole other level. It’s leading the nation averaging 358 yards per game — a whopping 34 yards more than No. 2 Air Force — and everything else flows from there. QB Malcolm Perry (who’s really a running back behind center) has been brilliant, the offense is getting better and better as the year has gone on. The team should be able to control the tempo and the clock for at least 35 minutes. However …
Why You Should Bet On Notre Dame: Navy played one team that can throw the ball reasonably well, and lost. Memphis was able to pull off the 35-23 win with Brady White hitting 78% of his passes with three scores as the Tiger offense took control of the game. That’s what the Irish have to do. Ian Book might not be all that accurate lately, but he connected on 82% of his throws in last year’s win over the Midshipmen. He doesn’t have to throw for 330 yards again, but he has to be sharp.
Prediction: Somehow, it’ll be a sellout at the last possible moment to keep the 273-game streak going. The Irish have improved their rushing defense in recent weeks. They’ll have problems with the Navy offense, but they’ll be balanced enough to survive and cover on a late score.
– CFN Full Navy vs. Notre Dame Game Preview & Prediction
Why You Should Bet On Minnesota: It’s time to start giving the Minnesota offense — especially the passing game — a whole lot more credit. Tanner Morgan is fourth in the nation in passing efficiency (behind the one-name stars Jalen, Tua and Joe) with a loaded receiving corps to work with. Iowa doesn’t have a big-time offense, but Minnesota does, with receivers Rashod Bateman and Tyler Johnson talents who’ll soon be off to the NFL.
Why You Should Bet On Iowa: This is a steady Iowa team with the defense that’s been a brick wall against the run all year against everyone but Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor. The offense has the veteran quarterback in Nate Stanley who should be able to hit a few big plays against a good — not amazing — Gopher secondary that gave up 340 yards to Penn State. Just don’t expect Stanley to throw the picks that Nittany Lions QB Sean Clifford did.
Prediction: It’s time to start giving Minnesota credit for winning close games. As the underdog on the road, the Gophers will pull out a thrilling, tight win with a big late stop.
– CFN Full Minnesota vs. Iowa Game Preview & Prediction
2. Oklahoma at Baylor
Charlie Brewer and his Baylor Bears have a tall task ahead of them in the Oklahoma Sooners. Jerome Miron – USA TODAY Sports
Why You Should Bet On Oklahoma: The offense has the ability to blow the doors off the Bears. There might be several issues, but Oklahoma continues to roll behind a brilliant year from Jalen Hurts — he’s playing better than Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray did, and with few mistakes. Baylor needs to win on turnover margin, and the Sooners don’t give the ball away with just 10 turnovers so far.
Why You Should Bet On Baylor: The pass rush is strong enough to keep Hurts from being comfortable. This is the best defense overall that OU has dealt with, with the disruptive ability to jump all over the backfield like nothing else the high-powered attack has dealt with. On the other side, the Sooner defense is starting to buckle again. It couldn’t handle Kansas State quarterback Skylar Thompson and the running game, it couldn’t handle Brock Purdy and the Iowa State passing attack, and now it’s going to try to keep Baylor’s Charlie Brewer from continuing to be his steady, cool self.
Prediction: It this a repeat of Minnesota-Penn State when the unbeaten team rises up at home when it get its shot? Not quite. Oklahoma will win, but Baylor will be just good enough to keep this closer than double digits.
– CFN Full OU vs. Baylor Game Preview & Prediction
1. Georgia at Auburn
Georgia head coach Kirby Smart (left) and quarterback Jake Fromm are facing yet another big game in the SEC. Matt Stamey – USA TODAY Sports
Why You Should Bet On Georgia: Georgia does what Auburn likes to do, only better. The Auburn lines are great, but Georgia’s are better. Auburn has a fantastic defense, but Georgia’s is better. It’s Jake Fromm vs. Bo Nix, and it’s the Bulldog run defense that’s not giving up a thing. Nix is going to have to rock to pull this off, and he didn’t hit 42% of his throws in his three big games against Oregon, Florida and LSU.
Why You Should Bet On Auburn: There’s not enough of a Georgia downfield passing game for Auburn to worry about. This isn’t a Bulldog team that — as good as it is — is going to crank up 50 points and put the game away. This is going to be a low-scoring, tough battle, and this could be the Oregon game all over again — stays close, stays close, stays close, and then Auburn rises up when it has to.
Prediction: Go with the under as both defenses take over, but Georgia will be a wee bit better. The Bulldogs -2.5 is right at where the line should be, but go with a focused and more talented Georgia team.
– CFN Full Georgia at Auburn Game Preview & Prediction
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Only five undefeated college football teams are still standing ahead of Week 12’s matchups: LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, Minnesota and Baylor.
Two teams fell off this list following last week’s games, Alabama and Penn State, but they both faced other unbeaten teams so we knew we’d lose at least a couple. The Big Ten still leads the way with two teams, while the SEC, ACC and Big 12 each have one representative here.
Here are our predictions for how the five remaining undefeated teams will play and whether or not they’ll keep their perfect records alive in Week 12. They’re based on their upcoming opponents, how they’ve played so far, the College Football Playoff rankings and ESPN’s Football Power Index projections.
(All games are on Saturday unless otherwise noted.)
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No. 1 LSU Tigers 9-0
Wins: Georgia Southern, Texas, Northwestern State, Vanderbilt, Utah State, Florida, Mississippi State, Auburn, Alabama Chance of winning out: 42.4 percent Week 12 game: Ole Miss (7 p.m. ET, ESPN) Undefeated after Week 12: Yes
After handing Alabama its first loss of the season in Week 11, the Tigers are officially the hottest team in college football, and their chance to win out skyrocketed after being just 12.1 percent last week. Quarterback Joe Burrow solidified himself as the Heisman Trophy frontrunner, and he’s led the No. 4 offense in the nation through the roughest stretch of the schedule. LSU should have little trouble with Ole Miss this weekend, and the same goes for Arkansas and Texas A&M down the road.
Wins: Florida Atlantic, Cincinnati, Indiana, Miami (Ohio), Nebraska, Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Maryland Chance of winning out: 62.7 percent Week 12 game: Rutgers (3:30 p.m. ET, BTN) Undefeated after Week 12: Yes
Oh man, this is going to be so brutal. It seems incredibly unlikely that Rutgers’ offense, which averages 280.3 yards per game, will be able to do anything a top-ranked defense that gives up 214.8 yards and fewer than nine points a game. The Scarlet Knights might not even get on the board, while Ohio State looks like it could put up 700 yards and at least 60 points against an opponent still searching for its first Big Ten win in 2019.
Wins: Georgia Tech, Texas A&M, Syracuse, Charlotte, North Carolina, Florida State, Louisville, Boston College, Wofford, NC State Chance of winning out: 83.9 percent Week 12 game: Wake Forest (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC) Undefeated after Week 12: Yes
Forget about Clemson’s rough — but obviously undefeated — start to the 2019 season. The Tigers have found their rhythm against 68th strongest schedule, and they’re back to wrecking opponents. Their defense has been great nearly all season and is third in points against (11.5 per game) and fourth in yards allowed (251.5 per game). And now it looks like their offense has returned to its expected form, despite quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s four-way tie for the most interceptions thrown in the ACC. (But to be fair, he hasn’t thrown one in the last three games.)
In the five games since Clemson’s one-point win over North Carolina that no one can seem to forget, it’s averaging 52.6 points per game and has outscored opponents 263-55. It has the best chance in the nation to win out with just two regular-season games left, and that sounds about right.
Wins: South Dakota State, Fresno State, Georgia Southern, Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska, Rutgers, Maryland, Penn State Chance of winning out: 1.1 percent Week 12 game: Iowa (4 p.m. ET, FOX) Undefeated after Week 12: Yes
We underestimated the Golden Gophers last week against Penn State, and clearly, that was a huge mistake. Won’t let that happen twice. Minnesota had a two-touchdown lead at one point against what is still a top-5 defense that was giving up fewer than 10 points per game.
Iowa also has one of the nation’s best defenses, but we’re picking quarterback Tanner Morgan — who’s No. 3 in the nation with 10.9 yards per attempt, behind only Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa — and the Golden Gophers to beat the Hawkeyes, even if the game is at Kinnick Stadium.
Wins: Stephen F. Austin, UTSA, Rice, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, TCU Chance of winning out: 4.4 percent Week 12 game: Oklahoma (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC) Undefeated after Week 12: No
It seems like every week we pick against the Bears, and ever week, we’re wrong. However, this time, it really seems like they’re going to lose in a game that could determine both teams’ fate in terms of the College Football Playoff. Baylor is coming off a close triple-overtime win against TCU last week, while Oklahoma barely beat Iowa State after blowing a 21-point lead. We’re predicting a similar ending. Quarterback Jalen Hurts and wide receiver CeeDee Lamb will do some serious early damage before Baylor claws its way back. But in the end, we think this is where the Bears’ win streak ends.
The Tigers could be huge spoilers for multiple teams.
Welcome to Before The Snap, For The Win’s college football show where we’ll break down the sport’s trending storylines, examine each week’s biggest matchups and track the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy races.
In the middle of a brutal schedule, Auburn is 7-2 and No. 12 in the College Football Playoff rankings with two losses, and it still has to play No. 4 Georgia and No. 5 Alabama. The Tigers have just a five percent chance to make the playoff at this point, but they do have the opportunity to have a massive impact on the playoff picture.
If LSU, Ohio State and Clemson continue playing the way they have all season, they’ll be the first three teams in. But that fourth spot could come down to Georgia, Alabama or Oregon, among other playoff hopefuls.
What do those three teams have in common? Auburn.
In Week 1, Oregon lost, 27-21, to the Tigers, and that remains the Ducks’ only defeat as they try to become a one-loss Pac-12 champ looking for a playoff spot. But depending on how other conferences close out the regular season, Oregon’s one loss could end up keeping it out of the top four.
Auburn hosts Georgia on Saturday, and upsetting the Bulldogs would hand them their second loss of the season and likely knock them out of playoff contention. A two-loss team has never been invited to the playoff, so it would probably take a conference championship and some chaos for that to happen.
And in Week 14, Alabama travels to Jordan-Hare Stadium to take on Auburn, and after the Crimson Tide lost to LSU in Week 11, a Tigers win could shut the door on their playoff hopes too.
Auburn probably won’t make the playoff, but it can be a huge spoiler this year.
