Our predictions for how either Michigan or TCU could win the College Football Playoff Peach Bowl semifinal.
Welcome to Before The Snap, For The Win’s college football series where we’ll break down the sport’s trending storylines, examine each week’s biggest matchups and track the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy races.
The first of the College Football Playoff semifinals features No. 2 Michigan taking on No. 3 TCU in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Eve (4 p.m. ET, ESPN), and the Wolverines are notable favorites over the Horned Frogs.
As we explain on the latest Before The Snap, Michigan’s offense has been on a roll in recent weeks with Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy showing off his arm while running back Donovan Edwards has been leading the charge on the ground. If the offense continues firing and defense remains a brick wall, Michigan could hold off TCU.
On the other side, we say TCU actually has the quarterback advantage with Heisman Trophy finalist Max Duggan, who’s been an impressive charge for the Horned Frogs all season. With Michigan’s defense holding teams to 85.2 rushing yards a game, TCU will have to rely on Duggan’s arm even more, while hoping its defense can stand tough.
Our predictions for how either Georgia or Ohio State could win the College Football Playoff Peach Bowl semifinal.
Welcome to Before The Snap, For The Win’s college football series where we’ll break down the sport’s trending storylines, examine each week’s biggest matchups and track the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy races.
The second College Football Playoff semifinal this season pits No. 1 Georgia against No. 4 Ohio State in the Peach Bowl on New Year’s Eve (8 p.m. ET, ESPN), and unsurprisingly, the Bulldogs enter as solid favorites over the Buckeyes — though both teams have Heisman Trophy finalist quarterbacks.
As we explain on the latest Before The Snap, for Georgia to win, it simply has to keep doing what it’s been doing as the clear top team this season. The Bulldogs’ defense doesn’t give up much on the ground (77 yards per game), and if it can force Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud into making some mistakes, their offense could run away with this game.
On the other side, Ohio State needs to score early and often, and Stroud needs to connect with Marvin Harrison Jr. as much as possible. If the Buckeyes fall into an early deficit, against Georgia’s defense, they probably will struggle to catch back up.
Our best predictions for how the top teams can make the College Football Playoff, and it’s actually pretty straight forward.
Welcome to Before The Snap, For The Win’s college football series where we’ll break down the sport’s trending storylines, examine each week’s biggest matchups and track the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy races.
The 2022 college football season is headed into conference championship weekend, and you know what that means: We’re just days away from finding out which four teams will make this year’s College Football Playoff.
We love chaos and debates, but we also have to be realistic in charting paths to the playoff. So here’s how we see the top-6 teams in the latest playoff rankings making it, and each scenario is actually quite simple.
Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud (Getty Images, USA TODAY Sports)
No. 1 Georgia (12-0)
With an SEC championship win: If the Bulldogs beat LSU for the conference championship — which they absolutely should as a 17.5-point favorite and one of the most dominant teams in college football — they’re in.
With an SEC championship loss: Even with a loss to the Tigers, we think Georgia gets in no matter what. Depending on how the other conference title games play out, it might not maintain the No. 1 spot with a loss, but it’ll still be in the top four. But for LSU, we don’t see a win bumping the Tigers up enough to make it.
No. 2 Michigan (12-0)
With a Big Ten championship win: Like Georgia, if Michigan wins its conference championship game against Purdue, it’s in. The Wolverines deserve their No. 2 spot behind the Bulldogs, and as 17-point favorites against the Boilermakers, they should have little trouble winning the Big Ten.
With a Big Ten championship loss: Also like Georgia, we don’t see a loss keeping Michigan out of the playoff — though it would likely lose its No. 2 position, depending on how the other games go. The Wolverines should be in no matter what.
No. 3 TCU (12-0)
With a Big 12 championship win: Win and they’re in. This TCU squad has been exceptional through its season so far, and a conference title would secure the program’s first playoff berth.
With a Big 12 championship loss: Despite an undefeated season so far, we don’t see the playoff committee giving the Horned Frogs the benefit of the doubt if it loses to Kansas State. If they lose, their playoff dreams are likely over.
No. 4 USC (11-1)
With a Pac-12 championship win: Win and they’re in. Should Heisman Trophy frontrunner Caleb Williams lead his team to victory over Utah in a rematch after the Trojans suffered a one-point loss in the regular season, the Pac-12 should have a playoff team for the first time since the 2016-17 season.
With a Pac-12 championship loss: A two-loss not-conference champion out of the Pac-12 probably isn’t making the playoff. With a USC loss or a TCU loss this weekend, the door will be opened for another team to slide into the top four.
No. 5 Ohio State (11-1) and No. 6 Alabama (10-2)
If you’re an Ohio State or Alabama fan, you also need to be the biggest Kansas State and Utah fan this weekend. A TCU or USC loss would likely benefit the Buckeyes first, and should one of those teams lose, we see a clear path for Ohio State to jump into the top four. Should both TCU and USC lose, not only would the Buckeyes likely make it, but the Crimson Tide probably also would become the first two-loss playoff team.
Why not No. 7 Tennessee? With the latest rankings, the playoff committee clearly values Alabama’s resume more than the Volunteers’, despite their three-point win over the Crimson Tide in the regular season. Had it not been for the ugly loss to South Carolina, Tennessee would still very much be in the playoff conversation.
Why not No. 8 Penn State or No. 9 Clemson? The Nittany Lions’ two losses this season were at the hands of the Big Ten’s top-2 teams, and without a conference title to play for, there’s really nothing they can do to jump that far in the rankings.
As for Clemson, which is playing in the ACC title game against North Carolina, its losses to Notre Dame and South Carolina seem to have hurt the Tigers too much in the eyes of the playoff committee for a conference championship win to make up the difference.
Welcome to Before The Snap, For The Win’s college football series where we’ll break down the sport’s trending storylines, examine each week’s biggest matchups and track the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy races.
It’s the last weekend of college football before conference championship weekend, after which the College Football Playoff committee will determine the four teams contending for a national championship this year.
There’s a lot on the line and several key games: USC and Notre Dame, Alabama and Auburn, N.C. State and North Carolina and on and on.
But no Week 13 game holds more influence on the final CFP four than the Ohio State-Michigan game Saturday in Columbus.
After the latest playoff rankings, the Buckeyes and Wolverines remain at Nos. 2 and 3, respectively, and ahead of the matchup, Ohio State is a 7.5-point favorite.
Obviously, one of these two teams will suffer its first loss of the season. But is that enough to knock the loser of the game out of playoff contention? Could the Big Ten still get two teams in?
We break it all down on the latest Before The Snap.
Breaking down the College Football Playoff picture before the first set of rankings debut.
Welcome to Before The Snap, For The Win’s college football series where we’ll break down the sport’s trending storylines, examine each week’s biggest matchups and track the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy races.
If you look right now at which teams have the best chance to make the College Football Playoff, it’s pretty clearly a battle between the SEC and the Big Ten with Clemson floating around in there.
The first set of playoff rankings are set to drop next week, so we’ll get our first official glimpse into how the committee views this season so far.
Could the Big Ten have two teams among the top-4? Could the SEC have three?? Undefeated Clemson’s had some close calls this season, so will those be held against the Tigers?
With Alabama off in Week 9, the answer to some of those questions could depend on how Ohio State handles Penn State on the road and if Tennessee can remain undefeated against a good Kentucky squad.
A lot can change between the opening rankings and the end of the regular season, so for now, we’re relying on ESPN’s Playoff Predictor formula for what teams have the best chances to make the playoff.
Going into Week 9’s matchups, here’s a look at the top-10 teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, along with their chances of advancing to the title game and winning it all, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, as of Tuesday. The Playoff Predictor utilizes an algorithm that factors in the same considerations as the selection committee, such as strength of record, number of losses and conference championships (or independent status), along with the FPI.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-0)
Playoff: 80.5 percent
National championship game: 51.6 percent
Win championship: 30.3 percent
2. Georgia Bulldogs (7-0)
Playoff: 68.7 percent
National championship game: 42.0 percent
Win championship: 23.3 percent
3. Clemson Tigers (8-0)
Playoff: 62.1 percent
National championship game: 21.7 percent
Win championship: 7.6 percent
4. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)
Playoff: 53.8 percent
National championship game: 34.2 percent
Win championship: 19.5 percent
5. Tennessee Volunteers (7-0)
Playoff: 51.6 percent
National championship game: 20.6 percent
Win championship: 7.5 percent
6. Michigan Wolverines (7-0)
Playoff: 49.2 percent
National championship game: 21.1 percent
Win championship: 8.9 percent
There’s a pretty sizable drop-off here between Michigan with nearly a 50 percent chance to make it and USC at less than 10 percent. So at least from this view, it largely seems like a battle between the SEC and Big Ten.
However, an upset against one of these top teams (or another one, in Alabama’s case), could make room for a one-loss Pac-12 champion or potentially an undefeated Big 12 champion. But right now, it seems unlikely either conference gets a team in the playoff without some outside help.
Before The Snap debates the best-looking college football team right now ahead of Week 7.
Welcome to Before The Snap, For The Win’s college football series where we’ll break down the sport’s trending storylines, examine each week’s biggest matchups and track the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy races.
For AP voters, Georgia and Ohio State did enough to leap over former No. 1 Alabama to claim the top-2 spots. But for the Playoff Predictor formula, the Buckeyes and Crimson Tide swapped spots, and Ohio State is now the most favored team to make the College Football Playoff. But is it really the best team right now?
Ahead of Week 7’s games, here’s a look at the top-10 teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, along with their chances of advancing to the title game and winning it all, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, as of Tuesday. The Playoff Predictor utilizes an algorithm that factors in the same considerations as the selection committee, such as strength of record, number of losses and conference championships (or independent status), along with the FPI.
There are six clear College Football Playoff contenders. But what about the dark horses?
Welcome to Before The Snap, For The Win’s college football series where we’ll break down the sport’s trending storylines, examine each week’s biggest matchups and track the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy races.
The 2022 College Football Playoff race is shaping up to be less of a race and more of a foregone conclusion. Sure, it’s only Week 6, and there’s a ton of football to still be played.
But unless something disastrous happens to one of these teams, it’s pretty likely that Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State will make up three of the four playoff teams. If that scenario plays out, it leaves teams like Clemson, Michigan and USC fighting for that last spot.
So if those six teams are playoff contenders this season, what about the dark horses?
It’s going to be awfully tough for some of these super outside candidates to keep up with some of the powerhouses and make the four-team playoff, but we’re rooting for a fun playoff race with chaos and room for debate.
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Going into Week 6’s matchups, here’s a look at the top-10 teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, along with their chances of advancing to the title game and winning it all, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, as of Tuesday. The Playoff Predictor utilizes an algorithm that factors in the same considerations as the selection committee, such as strength of record, number of losses and conference championships (or independent status), along with the FPI.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0)
Playoff: 86.9 percent
National championship game: 62.8 percent
Win championship: 41.2 percent
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0)
Playoff: 78.3 percent
National championship game: 47.4 percent
Win championship: 24.8 percent
3. Georgia Bulldogs (5-0)
Playoff: 64.9 percent
National championship game: 34.6 percent
Win championship: 15.7 percent
4. Clemson Tigers (5-0)
Playoff: 52.2 percent
National championship game: 18.2 percent
Win championship: 6.3 percent
After beating Arkansas last week without quarterback Bryce Young for much of the game, Alabama’s playoff chances in all three categories went up slightly. Meanwhile, Ohio State’s chances, after a Rutgers win, are virtually identical all around compared with last week’s numbers.
And compared with Week 5, Clemson’s chance to make the playoff (43.1 percent), advance to the title game (14.6 percent) and win it all (4.9 percent) got a notable boost after beating N.C. State. As we’ve previously speculated, if the Tigers could take down both Wake Forest and N.C. State, they’d be back to being a playoff frontrunner and could reasonably finish the season with an undefeated record and an ACC championship.
Georgia’s playoff chances, on the other hand, took a small but clear tumble after the Bulldogs had to come from behind to beat Missouri, 26-22, in Week 5. Last week, their chance to make the playoff was at 71.8 percent, advancing to the national championship game was at 42.0 percent and winning a second consecutive title was at 21.4 percent. Nothing to be concerned about as Georgia is still very much a playoff favorite, but the gap between it and Clemson, along with the other hopefuls, isn’t quite as large anymore.
Here’s a look at the rest of the teams and dark-horse contenders with the top-10 best College Football Playoff chances in Week 6:
5. Michigan Wolverines (5-0)
Playoff: 39.8 percent
National championship game: 15.3 percent
Win championship: 5.1 percent
6. USC Trojans (5-0)
Playoff: 17.9 percent
National championship game: 4.7 percent
Win championship: 1.5 percent
7. Utah Utes (4-1)
Playoff: 12.5 percent
National championship game: 4.0 percent
Win championship: 1.5 percent
8. Ole Miss Rebels (5-0)
Playoff: 9.9 percent
National championship game: 2.9 percent
Win championship: 0.9 percent
9. Penn State Nittany Lions (5-0)
Playoff: 7.7 percent
National championship game: 1.7 percent
Win championship: 0.4 percent
10. Tennessee Volunteers (4-0)
Playoff: 7.2 percent
National championship game: 2.2 percent
Win championship: 0.7 percent
Tennessee returns to this top-10 list, while Minnesota’s appearance on it was short-lived.
Welcome to Before The Snap, For The Win’s college football series where we’ll break down the sport’s trending storylines, examine each week’s biggest matchups and track the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy races.
Put them in any order you want, but if the top-3 teams in college football, Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State, keep playing like they are and keep winning, they’re basically locks for the College Football Playoff come December.
So what about everyone else — like Clemson, Michigan, USC or even another SEC team — looking to steal that fourth playoff spot?
This week, Before The Snap is breaking down what the remaining top teams have done, what their upcoming schedules look like and whether or not they’re playoff contenders or pretenders.
But we have a more calculated look at which teams have the best chance to make the playoff too.
So ahead of Week 5’s matchups, here’s a look at the top-10 teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, along with their chances of advancing to the title game and winning it all, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, as of Tuesday. The Playoff Predictor utilizes an algorithm that factors in the same considerations as the selection committee, such as strength of record, number of losses and conference championships (or independent status), along with the FPI.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0)
Playoff: 85.3 percent
National championship game: 60.7 percent
Win championship: 38.3 percent
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0)
Playoff: 78.3 percent
National championship game: 47.2 percent
Win championship: 24.3 percent
3. Georgia Bulldogs (4-0)
Playoff: 71.8 percent
National championship game: 42.0 percent
Win championship: 21.4 percent
4. Clemson Tigers (4-0)
Playoff: 43.1 percent
National championship game: 14.6 percent
Win championship: 4.9 percent
Since last week’s College Football Playoff watch, Alabama’s and Ohio State’s playoff chances are up big, Clemson’s chance increased too but not by as much and Georgia’s are down slightly down — but nothing to be concerned with. It’s clear who the playoff frontrunners are this year — they’re often the same year after year anyway — but this week, Alabama jumped Georgia for the top spot on this list.
Here’s a look at the rest of the teams with the top-10 best College Football Playoff chances in Week 5:
5. Michigan Wolverines (4-0)
Playoff: 30.3 percent
National championship game: 10.7 percent
Win championship: 3.6 percent
6. USC Trojans (4-0)
Playoff: 26.3 percent
National championship game: 7.3 percent
Win championship: 2.5 percent
7. Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-0)
Playoff: 10.0 percent
National championship game: 2.5 percent
Win championship: 0.7 percent
8. Penn State Nittany Lions (4-0)
Playoff: 9.6 percent
National championship game: 2.4 percent
Win championship: 0.5 percent
9. Utah Utes (3-1)
Playoff: 6.7 percent
National championship game: 1.7 percent
Win championship: 0.5 percent
10. Ole Miss Rebels (4-0)
Playoff: 6.6 percent
National championship game: 2.0 percent
Win championship: 0.7 percent
Since last week, Oklahoma, Texas and Tennessee have dropped off the list of teams with the top-10 playoff chances, and they were replaced by Minnesota, Utah and Ole Miss.
Looking ahead at who has the better, easier path to the College Football Playoff.
Welcome to Before The Snap, For The Win’s college football series where we’ll break down the sport’s trending storylines, examine each week’s biggest matchups and track the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy races.
It’s still September, so it’s still way too early to have a clear idea of which teams have the best shot at making the College Football Playoff come selection day in December. There’s a whole lot of football still to be played.
But going into Week 4, USC has a 20.0 percent chance to make the playoff, while Oklahoma has an 18.1 percent chance, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor formula. The Trojans and Sooners are comfortably out of the top four for now — those spots are occupied by Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State and Clemson, respectively — but those numbers are still some of the best in the country.
So hypothetically, if we assume Alabama and Georgia are in, along with Clemson or a Big Ten team, USC or Oklahoma could steal the final playoff spot. But looking ahead at both their schedules, it seems like the Sooners have a tougher challenge of winning out than the Trojans.
On this week’s Before The Snap, we break down which team we think has a better shot at the playoff, along with the most fun surprises of the season so far.
What will it take from the Trojans to make the College Football Playoff?
Welcome to Before The Snap, For The Win’s college football series where we’ll break down the sport’s trending storylines, examine each week’s biggest matchups and track the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy races.
Despite multiple major upsets in college football’s Week 2, USC is looking good with a 2-0 record so far in coach Lincoln Riley’s first season with the Trojans.
USC beat up on Rice in its season opener before cruising to a victory last week against Stanford in the team’s first conference matchup. Now, the Trojans are up three spots to No. 7 in the AP Poll and up four to No. 8 in the Coaches Poll, and, for the first time this season, they’re among the top-10 teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff with a 19.7 percent shot, per ESPN’s Playoff Predictor.
But is USC a serious playoff contender and one that could go up against powerhouses and playoff-contending regulars, like Alabama, Georgia, Clemson and Ohio State?
After two games, the Trojans’ defense looked good with room for improvement, but their offense, led by Heisman Trophy candidate Caleb Williams, could be dominant throughout the season, should it continue to play like it is.
On the latest episode of Before The Snap, we take a look at USC, its schedule and what it will likely take to make the College Football Playoff.
