The Tigers (5-6, 2-5 SEC) still have a chance to finish with an even .500 record this fall, but the team won’t be playing for a bowl game the day after Thanksgiving after the NCAA Tuesday upheld its postseason ban for the program.
The Tigers (5-6, 2-5 SEC) still have a chance to finish with an even .500 record this fall, but the team won’t be playing for a bowl game the day after Thanksgiving after the NCAA Tuesday upheld its postseason ban for the program.
Which team would win a hypothetical matchup between LSU and Ohio State?
Ahead of college football’s Week 14, there are only a handful of scenarios remaining for which four teams could compete for a national championship. Some of them depend on Saturday’s games, while others could play out based on the conference championship matchups in a couple weekends.
Currently, LSU and Ohio State are in a battle for the No. 1 seed, while undefeated Clemson looks like the third lock for the playoff. But that fourth spot, should the top-3 teams win out, is up for grabs among teams like Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Baylor and Utah.
So before the final regular-season games for the College Football Playoff contenders, For The Win spoke with ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit about the varying scenarios, the top teams’ chances and the Heisman Trophy race.
This interview has been condensed and edited for clarity.
Oh man, how about this: If they played 10 times, I think it would be 5-5.
I think LSU’s offense up to this point has been prolific. It’s been as good as I can remember seeing. This year, if you were to ask me to look back at Thanksgiving about what’s been the pleasant surprise, I would not just say LSU; I would say LSU’s offensive style, their quarterback — who I think’s going to win the Heisman in Joe Burrow — the approach by their head coach, Ed Orgeron. They’re attacking every game, they’re not taking a conservative approach offensively, which they’ve been known for for years and years.
Joe Burrow, Justin Fields (Getty Images, AP Photo)
That being said, Ohio State offensively and defensively, has been — I think you could argue along with Clemson — the most complete team in the country as far as every week. So that would be a tough one.
Neutral site, I don’t know what Vegas would say. I hope we get a chance to see that game play out because it would be a fun championship game.
2. If LSU, Ohio State and Clemson are the first three playoff teams, which one gets the last spot?
This weekend will have a big impact. But if Georgia beats LSU, which would be, obviously, a major upset, I think Georgia would be in, and Ohio State would move up to No. 1, Clemson would move to No. 2, Georgia would be at No. 3, and I think LSU would still be the fourth team. That would be the easy answer.
If LSU, Ohio State and Clemson were to win out, that eliminates Georgia, you’ve got Alabama at No. 5 without going to an SEC championship game. And then you’ve got Utah. Oregon might be out, but Utah is not. And I think Utah holds a trump card. If they beat Colorado and ultimately go to the Pac-12 championship and beat Oregon, I think Utah will leapfrog Alabama. And, if Georgia loses to LSU, I think Utah would end up being the fourth team to go.
I think Alabama’s only chance is to win, and they’ve got to be dominant for the committee to throw out the metrics and just say: “We think Alabama’s better than Oklahoma [and Utah].” With all that being said, I think it’s really setting up for eventually Utah or Oklahoma to go by Alabama if the top three keep winning.
3. Do you think Oregon’s loss to Arizona State this weekend hurt Utah’s chances?
Not at all, no. Here’s the thing with Utah: A lot of people east of the Rockies, if I asked them to name one player on Utah’s team, they couldn’t. So it’d be easy to look at Utah and not necessarily give them much credit or the benefit of the doubt because they play in a conference that most people don’t respect and most people don’t watch. So when you see Utah up there, you’re like, “Utah? Why are they up there?”
People don’t respect that brand, and I think that’s unfortunate because Kyle Whittingham is an incredible coach, and they’ve got a great team this year. If their only loss is on the road on a Friday night against USC, and they end up being Pac-12 champs, no way they’ll leave Utah out if they’re 12-1.
4. ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor updates each team’s chance to make the playoff weekly, and it seems largely accurate. But have you ever seen a percentage on there that was a bit puzzling?
Right now is one. This week, Utah is at nine percent to make the playoff. You’ve got the main three up there with Ohio State, Clemson and LSU at 86 percent or higher. Then there’s a pretty good drop to Georgia and Alabama. Oklahoma is ironically at 12 percent.
Lincoln Riley and Jalen Hurts (Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports)
This is subjective analysis. Everybody can weigh in on this. The only thing that matters is what the committee thinks. And if you follow what the committee has done, it’s interesting that our Allstate Playoff Predictor has Oklahoma at 12 percent and Utah at nine percent, because to me, I’ve really felt that they’ve sent us a loud message that they don’t necessarily respect the Big 12. If you go back to last week’s [College Football Playoff] rankings, Oklahoma after beating Baylor, they only moved up one spot to No. 9. Baylor was all the way down at No. 14 with one loss.
If Utah keeps winning, and they win a conference championship, I just don’t know what Oklahoma has to do to climb. And personally, I don’t see Oklahoma getting by Utah if Utah keeps winning. And the only reason I say that is based on the first few weeks with the way the rankings have shook down and how they’ve really sent a message: They’re not impressed by the Big 12.
5. Realistically, could Chase Young win the Heisman? Should we start calling it the best offensive player award if defensive players aren’t often finalists?
I remember when Ndamukong Suh was dominating every week in ‘09 and he ended up making it to New York City, and you could have made a pretty strong case for him that year that he deserved serious consideration.
Chase Young, I think if he didn’t have a two-game suspension and miss the Maryland and Rutgers games, who knows how many stats he could have had in those games? I think 20 sacks was very realistic for him, which is unheard of.
Chase Young (Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports)
For the first seven, eight, nine weeks, everybody was talking about Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Chase Young, Justin Fields, Tua [Tagovailoa]. It’s almost like we’re at the point where it’s Joe Burrow, last man standing, and then everybody else. Most people are going to put Joe Burrow in that No. 1 spot with two weeks to go, but who are you going to put at two and three?
Do you penalize Chase Young because he was suspended for two games? Do you recognize how he handled that situation and how forthcoming he was? Do you forgive him for that and keep him on your ballot? I have no idea. But one thing’s very clear. If you’re asking if the Heisman Trophy is supposed to go to the most outstanding player in college football, I don’t know how Chase Young can’t be on a ballot.
Could Georgia upset LSU in the SEC title game in a couple weeks?
Ohio State, Clemson and LSU have the top-3 spots in the College Football Playoff locked up — at least, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor. A couple weeks ago, their chances to make the playoff were comfortably in the 80 percent range, and now, the Buckeyes are nearly at 100 percent while the two Tigers teams are in the high 80s.
The obvious takeaway here with such absurdly high percentages is that the Playoff Predictor — an algorithm based on a variety of factors the selection committee considers when ranking teams — expects those three teams to win their final regular-season games and, ultimately, their respective conference championships, which would basically guarantee their playoff berths.
None of this is new. The only undefeated teams left, these three programs have dominated their schedules, and even when they’ve been challenged, they survived. Here are their chances to make the playoff and win the national championship, according to the Playoff Predictor.
1. Ohio State (11-0)
Playoff: 95 percent Win championship: 37 percent
2. Clemson (11-0)
Playoff: 87 percent Win championship: 27 percent
3. LSU (11-0)
Playoff: 86 percent Win championship: 15 percent
(AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
So let’s assume Ohio State, Clemson and LSU perform exactly the way they’re expected to, and look at the teams fighting for the fourth and final playoff spot.
4. Georgia (10-1)
Playoff: 50 percent Win championship: 7 percent
5. Alabama (10-1)
Playoff: 47 percent Win championship: 12 percent
Georgia has the fourth-best chance to make the playoff after beating Texas A&M, 19-13, in Week 13. But if our above scenario plays out, it means the Bulldogs will lose to LSU in the SEC championship game, which would effectively end their playoff hopes. However, should Georgia win the conference title game, both it and LSU could get in.
And with the Playoff Predictor giving the Bulldogs a 50 percent chance to make it, perhaps an upset in the SEC championship game is more likely than everyone thinks.
Going into the final week of the regular season — Georgia plays Georgia Tech on Saturday — the Bulldogs have a 46.5 percent chance to win out, which includes the conference title game, according to ESPN’s FPI. To compare, LSU, which plays Texas A&M on Saturday, only has a 44.2 percent chance to win out, and, at this point, is only slightly favored to win the SEC championship game. Georgia eventually beating LSU is the conference’s best-case scenario but the worst for just about everyone else.
(Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports)
After losing to LSU earlier this month, Alabama has no room for error, which means beating Auburn in Week 14 and then sitting back and watching the conference championship game play out.
The best-case scenario for the Crimson Tide making their sixth straight playoff appearance is for LSU to beat Georgia, so then their only loss is to arguably the best team in the nation. But should that happen, they also need to hope the selection committee views it more favorably than a potential one-loss Big 12 champ in Oklahoma or Baylor or a one-loss Pac-12 champ in Utah. How much do conference championships really mean?
6. Oklahoma (10-1)
Playoff: 12 percent Win championship: 1 percent
7. Utah (10-1)
Playoff: 9 percent Win championship: Less than 1 percent
Oklahoma has won its last three since being upset by Kansas State, but the wins haven’t been pretty. In Week 13 against unranked TCU, the Sooners had a 21-0 lead at one point before letting the Horned Frogs come back. They held on for a 28-24 win after beating Baylor by three and Iowa State by one the previous two weeks. That, combined with their loss to unranked Kansas State, is likely why both the Playoff Predictor and selection committee don’t have Oklahoma higher. Its best-case scenario is an Alabama loss this weekend and LSU winning the SEC — plus winning the Big 12, obviously.
Although its playoff chances are in the single digits, Utah is still very much in the mix, assuming it can win the Pac-12. Oregon losing in Week 13 to Arizona State hurts Utah a little because they both arguably needed each other ranked highly to bolster their playoff arguments. But Utah could still make it, especially if the Big 12 has a two-loss champ and Alabama falls to Auburn.
8. Michigan (9-2)
Playoff: 3 percent Win championship: Less than 1 percent
9. Baylor (10-1)
Playoff: 3 percent Win championship: Less than 1 percent
10. Florida (8-2)
Playoff: 2 percent Win championship: Less than 1 percent
Why not try to kick a field goal with a four-point lead and two seconds left in the first half? Credit to Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst for going for it in that situation against Purdue on Saturday.
The Badgers were up, 21-17, with a drive that started on their own 27-yard line with 22 seconds remaining in the second quarter. They moved up the field quickly, and with only a couple seconds left, they could have taken a knee or kicked a field goal.
Thankfully, they chose the latter, and senior kicker Zach Hintze stepped up. He narrowly made the kick, but it was good nonetheless. And just, wow.
The Badgers entered the break with a 24-17 lead over Purdue.
Going into Week 13’s games, four players were tied for the longest field goal of the season at 57 yards. But now, Hintze stands alone at the top of that category.
It wasn’t, however, the longest field goal in college football history. That honor goes to Ove Johansson, who kicked a 69-yarder for Abilene Christian University, now an FCS team, in 1976, as NCAA.com noted earlier this year.
The best we can hope for is LSU vs. Ohio State in the College Football Playoff.
Going into Ohio State’s top-10 matchup against Penn State on Saturday, there was talk of the Buckeyes reclaiming their No. 1 spot in the College Football Playoff rankings if they blew the Nittany Lions out.
Although the Buckeyes won, 28-17, some unexpected mistakes against its highest-ranked opponent to date suggests it should stay stay in the No. 2 spot behind LSU, assuming the Tigers wreck Arkansas, the only SEC team without a conference win, on Saturday night.
For the first time this season, Ohio State briefly looked beatable — even as Penn State also beat itself late in the game — in its smallest margin of victory this season. However, it did clinched the Big Ten East with the win and will have a shot at the conference title in a couple weeks.
Overall Saturday, the Buckeyes fumbled four times and lost three. Two lost fumbles in the third quarter led to Penn State scoring drives and allowed the Nittany Lions back into the game.
They entered Week 13 with 14 fumbles on the season, eight lost, for an average of 1.4 per game. After they jumped out to a 21-0 lead early in the third quarter, running back J.K. Dobbins and quarterback Justin Fields fumbled on back-to-back drives — and that was after Fields’ first-quarter fumble and turnover.
Now, Penn State’s defense is still one of the best in the country, and obviously, the Buckeyes were able to survive with an 11-point win. But they should need more than that to leap over LSU in the CFP rankings in Week 14.
Comparing the top-2 teams
The top-2 teams clearly have two of the most powerful and explosive offenses in the nation, and they’re led by Heisman Trophy candidates: LSU quarterback Joe Burrow and Ohio State’s Fields and Dobbins.
Going into Week 13, the Tigers and Buckeyes had similar offensive stats. LSU was second nationally in yards per game with 556.0 and third with 7.64 yards per play, while Ohio State was fourth at 541.7 and sixth with 7.26 yards per play. But Ohio State was No. 1 in scoring offense with 51.5 points per game and leads the country with 69 offensive touchdowns, while LSU was No. 2 with 47.8 points per game and third with 60 offensive touchdowns.
Defense is where the Buckeyes have the largest edge. Led by another Heisman candidate in defensive end Chase Young, Ohio State entered Week 13 at No. 1 in scoring defense (9.8 points per game), in yards per play (3.52) and in yards per game (216.4).
The Tigers’ defense isn’t at the level fans have come to expect and gave up an average of 5.39 yards per play ahead of their Week 13 game against Arkansas. They were also tied for No. 48 nationally with opponents putting up 367.8 yards per game and No. 44 with 23.8 points per game.
They crushed Ole Miss last week by three touchdowns, but they also gave up 37 points. Even against then-No. 3 Alabama earlier this month — LSU’s best win of the season so far — they had a 33-13 halftime lead and ended up winning, 46-41.
LSU’s record is slightly stronger and entered Week 13 ranked No. 1 with wins against three teams currently ranked by the CFP committee, and it should get credit for beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Ohio State’s record was ranked No. 2 ahead of this week — though that could change after Saturday — and it now also has wins against three teams in the CFP rankings.
The “eye test” helps Ohio State
The Buckeyes’ advantage to counter LSU’s schedule has been the so-called “eye test,” or which team simply looks better. They’re clearly the most balanced team in college football and, for the most part, have plowed through their opponents.
Though against a tougher schedule, LSU had a seven-point win over Texas, a three-point win over Auburn and then that five-point win against Alabama.
The fewest points Ohio State had previously won by was 24 twice (Florida Atlantic and Michigan State), and they never looked beatable at any point this season. Until the third quarter against Penn State.
And however brief that moment of weakness was, it seems like it might have been enough to keep Ohio State in the No. 2 spot, as LSU will surely destroy the worst team in the SEC on Saturday night.
Of course, the best we can hope for is that LSU and Ohio State will play each other in the College Football Playoff semifinals or national championship game and end this discussion in 60 minutes. But until then, the Tigers at No. 1 and Buckeyes at No. 2 sounds just right.
Chase Young returned to the field for Ohio State on Saturday in the Buckeyes’ 28-17 home win over Penn State, and he made quite the statement as he helped his team clinch the Big Ten East.
Young served a two-game suspension for violating the NCAA’s arbitrary rules regarding a small loan he received (and paid back) reportedly so his girlfriend could travel to Pasadena to see Ohio State play in the Rose Bowl.
Prior to the suspension for the Buckeyes’ games against Maryland and Rutgers, Young was in the Heisman Trophy conversation. And based on his performance against the Nittany Lions, that suspension might not and should not keep him from being a finalist.
Chase Young now holds the single-season record for most sacks in Ohio State history with 14.5.
Young entered Saturday’s game second in the nation with 13.5 sacks on the season. And with his three sacks against Penn State to bring his total to 16.5, he broke the school’s single-season sacks record. He passed Vernon Gholston’s record of 14.0 from 2007, and, again, this is after Young missed two games this season.
He also had nine total tackles, five solo and four for loss, and two forced fumbles in the Buckeyes’ Week 13 win.
Ohio State fans were thrilled to have him back on the field for a big win, and college football fans in general returned to being in total awe of possibly the best player in the country this season. And NFL fans are practically drooling over him.
#ChaseYoung should very much still be a Heisman candidate…, anyone who says or thinks otherwise is straight up wrong. @ me until your fingers shrivel up from carpal tunnel…..YOU'LL STILL BE WRONG. 🤷♀️ pic.twitter.com/FEVCDlGYFE
This had the potential to be awesome, until it didn’t.
This could have been a good play. It could have been a wildly wacky play. Instead, it was a terribly sad play that summarizes what FCS teams must feel like playing one of the best in the FBS.
The Western Carolina Catamounts took on Alabama in Tuscaloosa on Saturday, and it went exactly as you might expect. The Crimson Tide had a 38-0 lead at the half, and in the first 10 minutes, they kicked a field goal, scored a 57-yard touchdown when quarterback Mac Jones connected with wide receiver DeVonta Smith and had an 81-yard pick six against Catamounts quarterback Tyrie Adams thanks to defensive back Xavier McKinney.
But to its credit, Western Carolina had a couple solid moments but just couldn’t come close to sustaining them. And even if their fans got their hopes up watching the beginning of this play from Adams, their excitement was quickly crushed.
Early in the second quarter on 3rd-and-9 from Alabama’s 37-yard line as pressure closed in, Adams threw the ball, which was then batted down by McKinney. But rather than hitting the ground, it landed right back in Adams’ hands, and he took off running toward the left sideline.
But as McKinney tackled him, Adams fumbled, and it was recovered by defensive back Patrick Surtain II. The Crimson Tide scored on their next drive to take a 24-0 lead, capitalizing on one of three Western Carolina turnovers. Adams also threw two interceptions on back-to-back drives.
This game is in no way fair with Alabama being a 58-point favorite against a 3-8 team that’s eighth among nine Southern Conference squads.
But still, Adams’ accidental pass to himself looked like it could have evolved into something awesome, until it didn’t.
Tua Tagovailoa returned to campus Friday after having surgery on his hip for a season-ending injury.
Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa returned to Tuscaloosa after having “successful” hip surgery Monday in Houston, following a season-ending injury in the Crimson Tide’s win over Mississippi State last Saturday. He is expected to make a full recovery, but it’s possible that was the last time fans will see him playing in an Alabama uniform.
Tagovailoa greeted his teammates Friday ahead of their team dinner and game against Western Carolina on Saturday in Week 13. And they were thrilled to see him, along with coach Nick Saban, who even posed for a selfie with the recovering quarterback.
The Crimson Tide’s Twitter account shared a touching video of Tagovailoa’s return and his teammates’ reactions Friday night.
“It was really good last night,” Saban said Saturday at Bryant-Denny Stadium. “He came to the team dinner. He’s always very positive. Great spirit. Really good to have him back. He wanted to come to the game today, so we’ll see how that goes.”
Via Tagovailoa’s Instagram account
The Crimson Tide also decorated Tagovailoa’s scooter to give it a personal touch. The junior quarterback has documented much of the support he’s received on his Instagram stories.
Via Tagovailoa’s Instagram accountVia Tagovailoa’s Instagram account
With Tagovailoa out for the season, sophomore quarterback Mac Jones is stepping up as the starter. Jones also filled in against Arkansas when Tagovailoa was recovering from an ankle injury earlier this season.
It’s the week before THE WEEK when we get all the big rivalry games – or, at least, most of the big ones – all crammed into one giant final full regular season Saturday. But there are still five very, very big games …
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5. UCLA at USC
Photo Credit: Melissa Majchrzak – USA TODAY Sports
Why You Should Bet On UCLA: Can USC stop Joshua Kelley? The UCLA running back took over last season with 289 yards and two scores in the win over the Trojans, and he’s been every bit as good over the back half of this year. The ground game has been just good enough to pound it out again on a USC defense that’s been fine, but can and will give up yards to anyone who commits to the ground attack.
Why You Should Bet On USC: He might not be Joe or Tua or Jalen, but Kedon Slovis has been as hot as any quarterback in the country over the last few games, throwing for 838 yards and eight touchdowns in his last two outings, and with 15 touchdown passes in his last four. UCLA has been hit-or-miss when it comes to getting into shootouts, but USC is far better equipped to go up and down the field in a hurry.
Prediction: Playing for its bowl eligibility life, UCLA will make this a battle and keep it within the 13.5, but USC’s passing game will take over with Slovis throwing for four touchdowns in the win.
– CFN Full UCLA vs. USC Game Preview & Prediction
Why You Should Bet On Pitt: The Panthers have the nation’s best pass rush, and the Virginia Tech offensive line is just mediocre enough to have problems on the key downs. The run defense will be everything for Pitt – Virginia Tech is 6-0 when rushing for over 140 yards.
Why You Should Bet On Virginia Tech: There’s no real Pitt running game that can rise up and take over a game. The Hokies have a killer pass rush, too, and it should be able to get to Kenny Pickett and an inconsistent Panther passing attack that’s going to sputter way too often on the road. Virginia Tech can handle Pitt’s pass rush better than the other way around.
Prediction: Virginia Tech will run a little bit, Pitt won’t. The two defenses will take over in a fun fight, but the HOKIES will pull out the win – and cover – at home to be in a position to take the Coastal next week against Virginia.
– CFN Full Pitt vs. Virginia Tech Game Preview & Prediction
Why You Should Bet On Texas: Just how down is Baylor after its epic collapse against Oklahoma? It’s been a disappointing year for the Longhorns, but there’s still a sliver of a shot it can make the Big 12 Championship Game with a win this week. Thanks to both the legs and arm of Sam Ehlinger, Texas is among the best teams in the country at keeping the chains moving. Baylor is good on third downs, but the Longhorns have the ability to control the tempo on the road.
Why You Should Bet On Baylor: The Bears’ pass rush should be able to get to Ehlinger enough to be a big problem. There were issues getting to Jalen Hurts last week, but overall the defense is still the best in the Big 12, Charlie Brewer is still among the league’s most effective quarterbacks, and the team should be able to bomb away on a beleaguered Texas secondary, the BU D should be able to take care of the rest.
Prediction: Baylor will get over last week’s clunker and get the win it needs to not only get into the Big 12 Championship Game, but also back into the College Football Playoff picture. Brewer will have a big game as the BEARS win and cover.
– CFN Full Texas vs. Baylor Game Preview & Prediction
Why You Should Bet On Texas A&M: This is the exact type of Georgia team that fits what the Aggies need. There isn’t a ton of pop and explosion, it likes to go a bit slow and deliberate, and it’s not going to come out and throw for 400 yards and wing it all over the yard. The A&M secondary has been amazing – no one has completed more than 46% over the last four games. Jake Fromm might be terrific, but he’s not throwing for big yards and he’s been a bit erratic this year – his receiving corps isn’t helping.
Why You Should Bet On Georgia: Texas A&M isn’t going to get any easy chances. Georgia might not be LSU when it comes to putting up the big offensive numbers, but Fromm isn’t screwing up. He threw three picks in the loss to South Carolina, and that’s it. Defensively, the Dawgs aren’t allowing anything against the run – A&M’s Kellen Mond has to be perfect. He’s been okay this year, but not good enough.
Why You Should Bet On Penn State: The pass rush has to get to Justin Fields early, and it has to be relentless. The Buckeyes have faced a better schedule than it’s getting credit for. It dealt with a terrific Wisconsin defensive front and won easily, but it had problems keeping the Badgers out of the backfield. The Nittany Lions come in waves to get behind the line and will easily be the biggest test yet for a Buckeyes offense that hasn’t had to deal with even the slightest bit of adversity.
Why You Should Bet On Ohio State: Ohio State already had the No. 1 defense in college football, and now it gets back a rested and ready Chase Young off of his two-game bull(bleep) suspension. On the other side, the Nittany Lions secondary – even helped by the great pass rush – isn’t doing anything special. Minnesota, Pitt and Iowa were all able to throw without a problem, and Fields will be able to bomb away.
Prediction: This is where the Buckeyes flex a little muscle. Penn State is good, but it doesn’t have the consistent offensive pop to keep up. Ohio State pulls away in the second half to cover.
– CFN Full Penn State vs. Ohio State Game Preview & Prediction
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As the only unbeaten teams left, they’re headed toward perfect regular-season records.
College football is down to just three undefeated teams going into Week 13: LSU, Ohio State and Clemson. Minnesota and Baylor dropped off the list last week with losses to Iowa and Oklahoma, respectively, so now we’re left with this trio.
Although we’ve looked at just the upcoming week’s opponents for unbeaten teams, it’s late enough in the season to expand that a little to the end of the regular season and the conference championship games. (We’ll also dig deeper into that in a few weeks.)
Will any of the three undefeated teams lose in Week 13? Probably not, especially considering one of them is off. And it’s looking increasingly likely that all three will enter bowl season with perfect records.
So here are our predictions for how the three remaining undefeated teams will play in Week 13 and beyond. They’re based on their upcoming opponents, how they’ve played so far, the College Football Playoff rankings and ESPN’s Football Power Index projections.
(All games are on Saturday unless otherwise noted.)
No. 1 LSU Tigers 10-0
Brett Rojo-USA TODAY Sports
Wins: Georgia Southern, Texas, Northwestern State, Vanderbilt, Utah State, Florida, Mississippi State, Auburn, Alabama, Ole Miss Chance of winning out: 44.4 percent Week 13 game: Arkansas (7 p.m. ET, ESPN) Undefeated after Week 13: Yes
LSU closes out its regular season against Arkansas and then Texas A&M, two teams it shouldn’t have trouble beating. The Razorbacks have yet to win an SEC game this season, and they’re certainly not going to do it against the top-ranked team in the nation as 42.5-point underdogs. The Tigers have 98.7 percent chance to beat Arkansas and an 84.7 percent chance to take down the Aggies, both of which sound about right.
What is a little puzzling is that LSU still only has a 44 percent chance to of winning out, according to ESPN’s FPI. It’s a metric that includes conference championship games when they’re applicable, so for the Tigers, it goes beyond the next two weeks. Georgia clinched the SEC East last week with a win over Auburn, and if LSU can win this week, it will lock up the SEC West. Presumably, the Tigers’ relatively low chance to win out is because of this likely conference matchup, but it’s not exactly clear why.
LSU’s high-powered offense is led by Heisman Trophy front-runner Joe Burrow, who leads the nation with a 78.6 completion percentage and has 38 touchdowns compared with just six interceptions. As a whole, the Tigers’ offense is second in the country to Oklahoma with an average of 556.0 yards per game and second to Ohio State with an average of 47.8 points. Sure, Georgia’s defense is only giving up 267.2 yards per game (No. 6 nationally), and the Bulldogs have some excellent wins on their schedule. But all this is to say it seems like the Tigers should have a higher chance to win out at this point — at least slightly more than 50 percent, even if they are headed toward a game against the No. 4 team.
No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes 10-0
Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports
Wins: Florida Atlantic, Cincinnati, Indiana, Miami (Ohio), Nebraska, Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Maryland, Rutgers Chance of winning out: 56.4 percent Week 13 game: Penn State (Noon ET, FOX) Undefeated after Week 12: Yes
The Buckeyes close out the regular season against No. 8 Penn State and No. 13 Michigan, two of the toughest teams on their schedule. However, nothing suggests they won’t plow over both teams like they’ve done against every other opponent so far this season. They’re 18.5-point favorites at home against the Nittany Lions with an 83.9 percent chance to win this weekend. They also have a 77.4 percent chance of beating Michigan on the road. And for the record, their chance of winning out seems awfully low too.
With the nation’s No. 1 defense (216.4 yards/game, 3.52 yards/play) and the No. 4 offense (541.7 yards/game, No. 6 with 7.26 yards/play), Ohio State is looking like the most balanced team in the country. And with quarterback Justin Fields, running back J.K. Dobbins and defensive end Chase Young — who returns to the field after a two-game suspension from the NCAA — the Buckeyes have three of the best and most explosive players in college football on their roster.
However, they might not be able to lose to either team — or eventually in the Big Ten championship game — and still make the College Football Playoff. But that doesn’t seem likely anyway with a team of this caliber — though they do have the most challenging remaining schedule of the the teams on this list.
No. 3 Clemson Tigers 11-0
Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
Wins: Georgia Tech, Texas A&M, Syracuse, Charlotte, North Carolina, Florida State, Louisville, Boston College, Wofford, NC State, Wake Forest Chance of winning out: 88.5 percent Week 13 game: Bye Undefeated after Week 13: Yes (duh)
Clemson is off in Week 13 before closing out the season against South Carolina, a 4-7 team that upset Georgia in October and lost to Appalachian State in November. So really, who knows what could happen here?
Following a rocky start to the season, the Tigers have found their groove and are absolutely destroying every opponent in their path, and they currently have a 92.6 percent chance to beat South Carolina. This could be a blowout — it will probably be a blowout — or the Gamecocks could flirt with pulling off another stunner. Either way, Clemson should still win the ACC without much difficulty.
