Ohio State, Clemson and LSU have the top-3 spots in the College Football Playoff locked up — at least, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor. A couple weeks ago, their chances to make the playoff were comfortably in the 80 percent range, and now, the Buckeyes are nearly at 100 percent while the two Tigers teams are in the high 80s.
The obvious takeaway here with such absurdly high percentages is that the Playoff Predictor — an algorithm based on a variety of factors the selection committee considers when ranking teams — expects those three teams to win their final regular-season games and, ultimately, their respective conference championships, which would basically guarantee their playoff berths.
None of this is new. The only undefeated teams left, these three programs have dominated their schedules, and even when they’ve been challenged, they survived. Here are their chances to make the playoff and win the national championship, according to the Playoff Predictor.
1. Ohio State (11-0)
Playoff: 95 percent
Win championship: 37 percent
2. Clemson (11-0)
Playoff: 87 percent
Win championship: 27 percent
3. LSU (11-0)
Playoff: 86 percent
Win championship: 15 percent
So let’s assume Ohio State, Clemson and LSU perform exactly the way they’re expected to, and look at the teams fighting for the fourth and final playoff spot.
4. Georgia (10-1)
Playoff: 50 percent
Win championship: 7 percent
5. Alabama (10-1)
Playoff: 47 percent
Win championship: 12 percent
Georgia has the fourth-best chance to make the playoff after beating Texas A&M, 19-13, in Week 13. But if our above scenario plays out, it means the Bulldogs will lose to LSU in the SEC championship game, which would effectively end their playoff hopes. However, should Georgia win the conference title game, both it and LSU could get in.
And with the Playoff Predictor giving the Bulldogs a 50 percent chance to make it, perhaps an upset in the SEC championship game is more likely than everyone thinks.
Going into the final week of the regular season — Georgia plays Georgia Tech on Saturday — the Bulldogs have a 46.5 percent chance to win out, which includes the conference title game, according to ESPN’s FPI. To compare, LSU, which plays Texas A&M on Saturday, only has a 44.2 percent chance to win out, and, at this point, is only slightly favored to win the SEC championship game. Georgia eventually beating LSU is the conference’s best-case scenario but the worst for just about everyone else.
After losing to LSU earlier this month, Alabama has no room for error, which means beating Auburn in Week 14 and then sitting back and watching the conference championship game play out.
The best-case scenario for the Crimson Tide making their sixth straight playoff appearance is for LSU to beat Georgia, so then their only loss is to arguably the best team in the nation. But should that happen, they also need to hope the selection committee views it more favorably than a potential one-loss Big 12 champ in Oklahoma or Baylor or a one-loss Pac-12 champ in Utah. How much do conference championships really mean?
6. Oklahoma (10-1)
Playoff: 12 percent
Win championship: 1 percent
7. Utah (10-1)
Playoff: 9 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent
Oklahoma has won its last three since being upset by Kansas State, but the wins haven’t been pretty. In Week 13 against unranked TCU, the Sooners had a 21-0 lead at one point before letting the Horned Frogs come back. They held on for a 28-24 win after beating Baylor by three and Iowa State by one the previous two weeks. That, combined with their loss to unranked Kansas State, is likely why both the Playoff Predictor and selection committee don’t have Oklahoma higher. Its best-case scenario is an Alabama loss this weekend and LSU winning the SEC — plus winning the Big 12, obviously.
Although its playoff chances are in the single digits, Utah is still very much in the mix, assuming it can win the Pac-12. Oregon losing in Week 13 to Arizona State hurts Utah a little because they both arguably needed each other ranked highly to bolster their playoff arguments. But Utah could still make it, especially if the Big 12 has a two-loss champ and Alabama falls to Auburn.
8. Michigan (9-2)
Playoff: 3 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent
9. Baylor (10-1)
Playoff: 3 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent
10. Florida (8-2)
Playoff: 2 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent
See the full Playoff Predictor list here.
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