The Fresno State Bulldogs (4-5, 2-3 Mountain West) visit the San Diego State Aztecs (7-2, 4-2) in a Friday night contest at SDCCU Stadium. Kickoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET.
We analyze the FSU-SDSU odds and betting lines, while providing college football betting tips and advice on this matchup.
Fresno State at San Diego State: Three things you need to know
1. A few polar opposites are at play in this matchup. Fresno State plays in faster-paced, high-scoring games. (The Bulldogs are 30th in the nation in scoring at 34.3 points per game, but give up 32.4, tied for 103rd in the FBS.) The Aztecs, on the other hand, average 20.8 ppg (112th) while surrendering 14.4 with a staunch, eighth-ranked scoring defense. The game features a ball-hawking Bulldog defense — tied for 13th with 18 takeaways — against a stingy, ball-control Aztec offense which is tied for second in the nation in giveaways with five.
2. One similarity: Both teams are coming off bad losses. Fresno State lost at home to Utah State last week; SDSU lost at home to Nevada. The Aztecs had an uncharacteristic nine penalties in their loss to the Wolfpack. They were ranked No. 24 in penalties nation heading into that contest.
3. Both teams have played bottom-third schedules this season. By one measure, the Aztecs’ slate ranks 125th (of 130). FSU’s 30th-ranked offense will be just the second one (San Jose State) ranked in the top 60 that SDSU has seen this season.
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Fresno State at San Diego State: Odds, betting lines and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 5:30 p.m. ET.
Prediction
San Diego State 27, Fresno State 24
Moneyline (ML)
Figuring for strength of opponent, the Aztecs are coming off their worst two offensive performances of the season. But prior to the back-to-back clunkers, San Diego State showed glimmers of being a bit more efficient and explosive on both sides of the ball: not exactly the Dan Fouts San Diego Chargers of the ’80s, but just enough offense to grind into more consistent game control alongside a stifling defense.
TAKE SAN DIEGO STATE -110 in this flat-footed, Friday-night pick ’em.
New to sports betting? A $10 wager on SDSU returns a profit of $9.09.
Against the Spread (ATS)
With a line of San Diego State +1.5 -115, the SDSU bettor is paying a premium for the point. Too much, so AVOID.
The Aztecs have the better kicker, and we’ll play that angle in the better-leveraged moneyline.
Over/Under (O/U)
San Diego State’s home-game totals in 2019 have been under 31. Those — and some road-game successes in slugfests — have been fed by the Aztecs game-controlling their way to wins against inferior offenses.
A zag to the OVER 43.5 -106 is recommended. (Fresno State’s offense and pace pulls along San Diego State, whose offense has more to give than what’s on paper.)
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