Tag: MLB betting odds lines picks best bets

Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Chicago White Sox (1-3) and Seattle Mariners (2-1) play the first game of a three-game set Monday at 10:10 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the White Sox vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Carlos Rodon is the projected starting pitcher for the White Sox. He was 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 7.0 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 7 2/3 IP over two starts and two relief appearances in 2020. Rodon hasn’t faced the Mariners since Aug. 28, 2016, when he allowed one earned run on 5 hits and a walk with 6 strikeouts over six innings in a win in Chicago.

LHP Justus Sheffield is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners. He was 4-3 with a 3.58 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 55 1/3 IP over 10 starts in 2020. The last time he faced the White Sox was Sept. 15, 2019, when he allowed 6 earned runs on 7 hits and a walk with 8 strikeouts across 4 1/3 innings in a no-decision.

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White Sox at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:05 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: White Sox -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Mariners -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: White Sox -1.5 (+135) | Mariners +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Mariners 7, White Sox 4

Money line (ML)

The MARINERS (-105) are short underdogs at home, but they’re the play here. Rodon has been terrible for the White Sox, and until he is able to start showing some consistency you have to fade him.

The ChiSox also won just one of their past five meetings with the M’s, dating back to April 2019. They won just once in the first four games against the Los Angeles Angels, and they’re just 2-10 across their past 12 games away from the south side of Chicago.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The MARINERS +1.5 (-165) will cost you if you’re looking for a little insurance and aren’t sold on Sheffield turning in a strong performance; however, I like the M’s catching a run and a half here. I just like them even better straight up.

For me, Rodon just cannot be trusted, as he hasn’t had a quality start since April 19, 2019 prior to Tommy John surgery.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 8.5 (-105) is the lean.

Again, not trying to pick on Rodon, but he cannot be trusted to avoid the crooked numbers on the scoreboard. The Mariners offense is averaging 4.82 runs per game so far this season, and they hit the Over in each of the first two outings while allowing 6.5 runs per game.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Pittsburgh Pirates (1-2) and Cincinnati Reds (2-1) meet Monday evening at 6:40 p.m. ET to open a three-game NL Central set at Great American Ball Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pirates vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP JT Brubaker draws this start for the Pirates. In 2020, he went 1-3 with a 4.94 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, and 3.2 BB/9 in 47 1/3 IP over 11 appearances. He was dinged up by hard contact in Grapefruit League action.

RHP Jose De Leon is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He went 0-0 with an 18.00 ERA, 2.83 WHIP, 15.0 K/9, and 16.5 BB/9 in 6 IP over five relief appearances in 2020. The 28-year-old is in the Reds’ rotation due to an injury to RHP Sonny Gray (back). He has a history of wildness, and registered a bout with gopher-itis in the spring (5 home runs allowed).

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Pirates at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:35 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Pirates +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Reds -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Pirates +1.5 (-155) | Reds -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Reds 6, Pirates 4

Money line (ML)

Going by preseason win totals, you would have to be really down on De Leon not to like the Reds at this price. Preseason win totals had Cincinnati at 81.5 and Pittsburgh at 59.5. Last season, the Reds bludgeoned the Pirates, 46 runs to 27, in 10 meetings and won the season series 7-3.

In batting splits, Pittsburgh scuffled against right-handers last season (a low-contact .612 OPS). The Reds were at their best against righties with .733 OPS.

The Pirates bullpen bolsters that last nugget; when Brubaker exits, it’s a heavily right-leaning corps of relievers behind him. Bullpen availability at the top end favors Cincinnati coming into this series.

Peg this one as a strong-signal play (at least for an early-season tilt) on the REDS (-145).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Cincinnati dominated Pittsburgh in the runs department last year but this starting pitching matchup brings too much gray area into the equation.

This run-line play brings in extra juice for the house and a PASS is recommended.

Over/Under (O/U)

Walks, home runs, wind out, warmed-up Midwest, Pittsburgh ‘pen playing to Cincy strengths.

Again — gray area on the starters chips away at the strength of the play, but consider some partial-unit action on the OVER 9 (-120).

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Baltimore Orioles (3-0) and New York Yankees (1-2) meet for the first time in 2021 Monday at 6:35 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Orioles vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Jorge Lopez is the projected starting pitcher for the Orioles. Last season, Lopez went 2-2 with a 6.69 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, and 2.8 BB/9 in 39 IP over nine appearances. Against these Yankees, he faced 21 batters, allowing just four base runners (three hits, walk) and no extra-base hits. Lopez won this slot in the O’s rotation by posting a 2.75 ERA in six spring training appearances.

LHP Jordan Montgomery is the projected starting pitcher for the Yankees. Last year, Montgomery went 2-3 with a 5.11 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, and 1.8 BB/9 in 44 IP over 10 starts. Baltimore bats own a whiff-heavy .550 OPS against the Yankee southpaw that returned from Tommy John surgery last season.

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Orioles at Yankees odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:40 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Orioles +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Yankees -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Orioles +1.5 (+100) |  Yankees -1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Yankees 5, Orioles 3

Money line (ML)

Pegging the Yankees as a near-.600 club and the Orioles as a near-.400 one, and giving Montgomery a nod in the starter department, New York’s American League entry is worth more than a -200 price for this one. Up to -225 is reasonable.  PASS ON THE JUICE-FILLED PRICES AS LISTED.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Last season, New York went 7-3 against Baltimore. Five of the Yanks’ wins were by a two-run cushion or more.

The Yankees are just the slightest lean as the batting-last home side with an Under shade. Consider a partial-unit play on NEW YORK -1.5 (-120).

Over/Under (O/U)

New York’s potent offense has been kept under wraps by a lackluster performance with runners in scoring position. A warmed-up (63 degrees at first pitch in the forecast) Yankee Stadium with a projected double-digit wind out to right would appear to be the right medicine for turning an offense around.

But both starting pitchers do well to keep the ball on the ground (so, in fact, do both bullpen units). Montgomery figures to be stingy in yielding hard contact. Baltimore’s early offensive numbers have been somewhat underpinned by a high batting average on balls in play, particularly in high-leverage situations.

To all of the at is added a tag with some room for value below. TAKE THE UNDER 9.5 (-105).

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Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Tampa Bay Rays (2-1) are set to open a three-game series against the Boston Red Sox (0-3) Monday at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Michael Wacha is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays. In 2020, he was 1-4 with a 6.62 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 34 IP over eight games (seven starts) with the New York Mets. The strikeout and walk rates show Wacha’s skills were better than his surface numbers indicate.

He is coming off a fine spring with his new team, one in which he allowed just 1 ER in 15 IP, with 12 strikeouts and just 2 walks.

RHP Nick Pivetta is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox. He made just five appearances (two starts) in 2020, going 2-0 with a 6.89 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 15 2/3 IP with the Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies.

Pivetta got rocked in his three relief outings with the Phillies but fared well in two starts after he was traded to Boston. In those starts, he totaled 10 innings, allowing just two runs and whiffing 13 batters.

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Rays at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:20 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Rays -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Red Sox +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Rays -1.5 (+125) | Red Sox +1.5 (-155)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Rays 7, Red Sox 4

Money line (ML)

Wacha wasn’t nearly as bad as his ERA would suggest in 2020, and this spring he showed improved velocity and solid results. On the other side, two good starts from Pivetta isn’t nearly enough of a sample to buy into him finally putting it all together. He still owns a 5.40 career ERA and is unlikely to keep the Tampa bats in check Monday night.

The Red Sox lost their first three games at home for the first time since 1948, and the streak will likely extend to four.

Back the RAYS (-120).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Getting the RAYS -1.5 (+125) is an even better value than the money line. Pivetta has been prone to blowups throughout his career, and as the road team, the Rays could still break open a close game late.

Over/Under (O/U)

A Wacha-Pivetta matchup is unlikely to end up a pitchers’ duel and could turn into a high-scoring affair. While there is reason to believe in better days ahead for these starting pitchers, particularly Wacha, the fact they have combined for a 5.33 ERA and 2.0 HR/9 the past two seasons can’t be ignored.

The OVER 9.5 (-110) looks like the way to go Monday.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (1-2) and Miami Marlins (1-2) play the first of a three-game set Monday at 6:40 p.m. ET at loanDepot park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Daniel Ponce de Leon is the projected starting pitcher for the Cardinals. He was 1-3 with a 4.96 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 12.4 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 32 2/3 IP over eight starts and one relief appearance in 2020. Ponce de Leon hasn’t faced the Marlins since June 19, 2019, when he allowed just two hits and one walk with six strikeouts across six scoreless innings at home in a no-decision.

LHP Trevor Rogers is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He was 1-2 with a 6.11 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 12.5 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 in 28 IP over seven starts in 2020. This will be the first career start for Rogers against the Cardinals.

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Cardinals at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Marlins -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals -1.5 (+145) | Marlins +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Marlins 4, Cardinals 3

Money line (ML)

The MARLINS (-110) are worth playing lightly as they open a three-game set against the Cardinals (-110). St. Louis closed out the 2020 season with just one victory in their final six tries against a left-handed starting pitcher, and they were 0-4 in their final four road outings vs. LHP.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The MARLINS +1.5 (-175) are a little more on the expensive side if you don’t trust them straight up. However, the Cardinals -1.5 (+145) were spanked 12-1 in their series finale in Cincinnati Sunday, and they have been outscored 21-7 across the past two. So the Marlins are the better play, although I like them better just straight up.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 8.5 (-110) is worth a look here despite the fact the Over cashed in each of the first three for the Cardinals. The Marlins hit the Under in the opening game, but the Over in each of the past two. However, the Under is 7-3-1 in the previous 11 meetings between these teams, and St. Louis ended last season with the Under cashing in four of their final five vs. LHP.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Chicago White Sox (1-2) and Los Angeles Angels (2-1) close out their four-game set Sunday evening at 8:37 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the White Sox vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Dylan Cease is the projected starting pitcher for the White Sox. A year ago, Cease went 5-4 with a 4.01 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, and 5.2 BB/9 in 58 1/3 IP over 12 starts. The Angels’ lineup swings more right than most, and that’s a key for the 25-year-old Pale Hose hurler. Cease coughed up a .914 OPS against lefty bats in 2019 and he allowed an .873 figure a year ago.

RHP Shohei Ohtani is the projected starting pitcher for the Angels. Last year Ohtani returned from Tommy John surgery, and recorded just five outs across two starts before a flexor strain ended his season on the mound. He registered a 3.31 ERA in 10 starts in 2018.

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White Sox at Angels odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: White Sox +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Angels -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: White Sox +1.5 (-175) | Angels -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

White Sox 6, Angels 4

Money line (ML)

In closing out the last game of a four-game series, the ChiSox went 3-2 last year; the Seraphs went 2-3. Cease was sharp in spring training while striking out 11.6 batters per nine and logging a 1.06 ERA.

The White Sox figure as the better club, but the Ohtani potential (although for how many innings?) seems to be tilting the odds here out of whack.

Back CHICAGO (+100).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

STEER CLEAR of the added juice with these run-line numbers.

Over/Under (O/U)

This has already been a high-scoring series, with the teams combining for 35 runs through three games. Now the batters have seen the relievers once or twice around. Plus, two of the Angels’ top-4 bullpen options may not be available for this one.

In a wind-out game (with Cease and most of the Los Angeles bullpen being fly-ballers) and on a fade of Ohtani, back the OVER 9 (-120).

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (2-1) and Colorado Rockies (1-2) play the finale of a four-game series Sunday at Coors Field. First pitch is slated for 3:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Dodgers vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Los Angeles beat Colorado last night in a seesaw late-inning battle decided by 2B Zach McKinstry‘s go-ahead inside-the-park homer in the top of the 8th to win 6-5 yesterday.

Season series: Dodgers 2-1.

LHP Julio Urias takes the mound in Game 4 for the Dodgers. Urias was 3-0 with a 3.27 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 55 IP across 11 appearances (10 starts).

  • 2020 vs. Rockies: 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA (10 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 8 K, 2 BB) in 2 starts.
  • 2021 Spring Training: 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA (16 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 12 K, 3 BB) in 5 starts.

LHP Austin Gomber makes his season debut for the Rockies. The 27-year-old debuted in the majors in 2018, but he missed the 2019 season. Gomber was 1-1 with a 1.86 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 in 14 appearances (4 starts).

He spent his first two big-league seasons playing for the St. Louis Cardinals.

  • Career vs. Dodgers: 0-1 with a 10.13 ERA (8 IP, 9 ER, 14 H, 7 K, 5 BB) in 2 starts.
  • 2021 Spring Training: 0-1 with a 3.20 ERA (19 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 18 H, 19 K and 2 BB) in 6 starts.

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Dodgers at Rockies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 6:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Dodgers -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Rockies +190 (bet $100 to win $190)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -2.5 (-115) | Rockies +2.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: 11.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Rockies 8, Dodgers 6

Money line (ML)

There might be added value in fading the Dodgers and Urias here because the last thing people remember about the lefty was him dealing in Los Angeles’ title run last season.

Urias had an above-average fly ball rate last year which could be a problem in the launching pad known as Coors Field. In fact, Urias’ career 5.77 ERA vs. the Rockies is 3.65 earned runs higher than any other National League West opponent.

At Coors Field, Urias is 0-1 with a 6.55 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 6 games and 4 starts for his career.

That being said, I only “LEAN” ROCKIES (+190) for a quarter-unit because Colorado’s run line is more enticing.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Let’s buy insurance with the ROCKIES +2.5 (-105) for 1 unit.

The market started betting Colorado’s run line when this game opened Saturday and early line movement is usually “sharp” money in MLB regular-season betting.

I’d only put .75 units on Colorado’s run line because fading the mighty Dodgers is probably a losing strategy in the long-term and I prefer the total more than the sides in this game.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET FIRST 5 INNINGS OVER 6.5 (-105) for 1 unit based on my read that the Rockies lineup could chase Urias given his struggles historically at Coors Field. If that happens, it’ll “force” Los Angeles to rely on a bullpen that was 2nd in ERA last season.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Arizona Diamondbacks (0-3) and San Diego Padres (3-0) close out a four-game series Sunday at 4:10 p.m. ET at Petco Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Taylor Widener takes the ball for the Diamondbacks. A year ago, he went 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, and 5.4 BB/9 in 20 IP over 12 relief appearances. Widener was stretched out as a starter in spring training. He finished the Cactus League with a 3.68 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 14 2/3 innings.

RHP Chris Paddack is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. In 2020, he went 4-5 with a 4.73 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, and 1.8 BB/9 in 59 IP over 12 starts. Current Arizona batters own an aggregate .555 OPS against the 25-year-old righty.

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Diamondbacks at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:09 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Diamondbacks +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Padres -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-105) | Padres -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Padres 4, Diamondbacks 3

Money line (ML)

San Diego went 31-16 against under-.500 teams in 2020. The Friars have a versatile top-10 offense, and its one that figures to be at its best against right-handers.

The Snakes have had their struggles against Paddack. The Friars hurler was undone by a high rate of fly balls leaving the yard a year ago. Advanced-analytic ERA measures are kinder to Paddack than the 4.73 surface mark he posted in 2020. The last five times San Diego had two-game win streaks last season, it turned them into three-game win streaks.

Take the PADRES -225.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS in this wind-in, pitcher’s park game with Paddack being a starter whose skills outpace his stats.

Over/Under (O/U)

The forecast calls for a 10-mile-an-hour breeze in the hitters’ faces. Peg this one as a get-away-day six-or-seven-run contest.

Take UNDER 9 (-115).

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Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Minnesota Twins (1-1) play the Milwaukee Brewers (1-1) Sunday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Twins vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Sunday’s meeting is the rubber match of this three-game set. The Twins won a pitcher’s duel 2-0 Saturday to even the series. The Brewers took Thursday’s opener 6-5 in 10 innings.

Minnesota LHP Jose Berrios pitched six perfect innings with 12 strikeouts Saturday before turning it over to the bullpen, which eventually lost the no-hitter and perfect game but held on for the win.

Brewers RHP Corbin Burnes also flirted with a no-hit bid. He didn’t allow a hit until Twins CF Byron Buxton‘s solo homer in the top of the 6th, which ended up being Burnes’ final batter.

Season series: Tied 1-1.

RHP Michael Pineda takes the hill Sunday for the Twins. Pineda was 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 26 2/3 IP across 5 starts in 2020.

He didn’t make his first start last season until Sept. 1 because he was serving a 60-game suspension that started in 2019.

  • Last start vs. Brewers: No-decision (6 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 6 K, 0 BB) in a 5-4 loss May 27, 2019.
  • 2021 Spring Training: 0-0 with a 7.04 ERA (7 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 14 H, 10 K, 1 BB) in 2 starts.

RHP Adrian Houser makes his first start of the season for the Brewers. 2020 was a rough year for Houser, who was 1-6 with a 5.30 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 56 IP over 12 games (11 starts).

  • 2020 vs. Twins: 0-1 with 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 4 K and 1 BB in 1 start.
  • 2021 Spring Training: 1-0 with a 5.60 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 11 ER, 21 H, 16 K, 6 BB) across 6 starts.

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Twins at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:45 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Twins -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Brewers -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Twins -1.5 (+140) | Brewers +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Brewers 6, Twins 3

Money line (ML)

Bet BREWERS (-105) for 1 unit because I favor Milwaukee’s Houser over Minnesota’s Pineda in the starting pitching matchup.

Twins DH Nelson Cruz had an impressive plus-12 run value vs. sinkers last season and Houser’s most used pitch is a sinker. Since the Brew Crew are the home team, this game is played under National League rules, which doesn’t have a DH. Because Cruz doesn’t play the field, the only chance Minnesota has at using him is as a pinch hitter.

Plus, there are a few indicators Houser could have a bounce-back season in 2021.

Houser’s FIP was only slightly lower than his ERA, but his BABIP was high (.325), which is a luck-based metric, and Houser’s hard-hit percentage, exit velocity and fly-ball rate are far lower than MLB averages.

Finally, I think Pineda will pitch closer to his 2021 Spring Training form this season—which was poor—than his awesome 2020 regular-season performance.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a “LEAN” on Brewers +1.5 (-165) because I could be into a parlay with Milwaukee’s run line and another run line or a favorite’s money line to get an even- or plus-money payout.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS because despite being very confident in Milwaukee’s pitching staff there’s just too wide a range of outcomes for Pineda. If 2020 Pineda is on the mound, I’d bet the Under but I’m staying away from this total.

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Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (0-2) and Philadelphia Phillies (2-0) close out their season-opening, three-game set Sunday at 1:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Ian Anderson is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. Anderson, who made his MLB debut last August, went 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 11.4 K/9, and 3.9 BB/9 in 32 1/3 IP over six starts last season. He was 2-0 with an 0.96 ERA in four postseason starts.

RHP Zach Eflin is projected to start for the Phillies. He was 4-2 with a 3.97 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 59 IP over 11 games (10 starts) in 2020. Eflin battled a back problem toward the end of spring training, so he could be on a short leash Sunday.

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Braves at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+125) | Phillies +1.5 (-150)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 4

Money line (ML)

Back the BRAVES -135. Look for Atlanta to get going against a pitcher it has hit well before. The Braves scored just two runs in their first two games. They averaged 5.9 runs per game against the Phillies in 2020.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS. The outright (money line) play on the Braves is solid. Both clubs played more one-run games than average a year ago.

Over/Under (O/U)

The Braves and Phillies figure as two first-division offensive clubs. Both are strong against righty pitching. Neither side has had things cranked up yet. Sunday’s game, the third of this series, could yield some less-than-optimum bullpen matchups. Plus, Eflin’s status brings in some potential for chaos, and Atlanta batters own an .844 OPS against him.

Take the OVER 8 (-115).

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