The No. 18 Wisconsin Badgers are ready for battle against backup quarterback Jack Tuttle and No. 10 Indiana tomorrow as they look to improve to 3-1 on the season and extend their 10-game win streak against the Hoosiers.
The 2020 Indiana Hoosiers are on a different level than the Indiana teams we’ve seen in the past–sitting with a 5-1 record and ranking third in the Big Ten in points-per-game, first in total points, first in pass yards, first in offensive touchdowns, first in touchdown passes, first in defensive interceptions and first in defensive sacks.
Related: Opinion: A Big Ten rule is close to taking away the remaining credibility of the 2020 season
They’ve gotten out to early leads against nearly all of their opponents thanks to big plays by offensive weapons Ty Fryfogle, Miles Marshall and Whop Philyor and then have ramped up the defensive aggression, something which has led the defense to 16 interceptions and 2.66 interceptions-per-game.
Much of their offensive and team success has been due to star quarterback Michael Penix Jr., the leader of the pack for Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year heading into last weekend. During that game against Maryland, Penix Jr. tore his ACL and will now miss the rest of the season.
So head coach Tom Allen and the Hoosiers now turn to sophomore quarterback Jack Tuttle, a former four-star recruit that Paul Chryst and the Badgers actually offered back in 2016.
Allen says Tuttle is an extremely hard worker. Our concern is he will never sleep bc he's watching film. He's a gym rat.
"This is your opportunity. I'm excited for him. He has chance to take things over." #iufb— PaulGable (@PaulEGable) December 3, 2020
The Hoosier offense is sure to look different without their Heisman contender (yes, I said it) under center, though there simply isn’t enough to go off of to accurately predict how Tuttle will perform and whether he can keep the offense churning as it has.
Related: Wisconsin vs. Indiana: Eight players to watch
So during a normal week with a healthy Penix Jr., I’d say the stat that would define the matchup is his yards-per-attempt and whether or not he’s able to consistently stretch the field.
Because with big plays down the field, the Hoosier offense is nearly impossible to stop.
But without them, the Badgers have the personnel to stop Indiana from consistently driving the length of the field.
This isn’t a normal week, as I’ve stated, and we don’t know what Tuttle will bring, so instead the one stat that will define the matchup is what actually lost the Badgers the game at Northwestern: turnovers.
As I mentioned earlier, the Indiana secondary has intercepted 16 passes this season in only six games to aid the defense to a total turnover tally of 18.
Your math is correct if you noticed that they turn their opponents over three times per game, on average.
Related: Five keys to a Wisconsin victory against Indiana
After Wisconsin quarterback Graham Mertz’s abysmal performance against Northwestern that included one fumble and three interceptions, his ball security will be the one thing that defines who wins the game.
We saw how talented and effective Jim Leonhard’s defense is when they were able to hold the Wildcats to only 17 points despite the Badger offense turning the ball over five times (we’ve also seen it all season).
That is a performance, however, that is unlikely to be repeated against this Indiana offense.
But even aside from how the defense performed, this is a Wisconsin team that’s coming off a 5-turnover performance and is getting set to face the conference’s leader in forced turnovers.
So, put simply, if the Badgers win the turnover differential and Mertz protects the football, Wisconsin will win the game. That is the case because the defense’s job will be far easier, the Badger offense will be able to keep Indiana’s offensive playmakers off the field, running back Jalen Berger and the rest of the backfield will be able to find a rhythm and, in simple terms, the Badgers will be able to score points.
If they give the ball away consistently and are unable to force Tuttle into mistakes, on the other hand, Indiana will come away with a victory. For a preview of what that would look like, see the Northwestern game. It isn’t pretty and leads to losing football games.
The wait is nearly over for Wisconsin to return to the field (again) this season as they’ll kick off against No. 10 Indiana tomorrow at 2:30 CST.
Stay tuned in to BadgersWire as we preview, analyze and recap the contest throughout the weekend.
