Fantasy football preview: Carolina Panthers quarterbacks

Is there anything to see here for fantasy footballers?

The Carolina Panthers have struggled to get past the Cam Newton era but overhauled the quarterbacks room in the last three months. Carolina has become the dumping ground of 2018 draft failures, where Cleveland passed on Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson to take Baker Mayfield with the first overall pick, and the New York Jets followed shortly thereafter in taking Sam Darnold at No. 3.

Darnold was an undeniable failure in New York, getting run out of town when he struggled, and the Jets drafted Zach Wilson with the second pick in the 2021 draft to officially end the experiment. Although Mayfield led the Cleveland Browns to the playoffs in 2020 for the first time since 2002 and earned their first playoff win since 1994, his erratic play led to a 29-30 record as a starter and the signing of a megadeal with Deshaun Watson that eventually sent Mayfield packing.

Rookie Matt Corral was rumored to be in consideration as a first-round draft pick, but fell all the way to the third round and has the “QB of the future” tag, while third-year man P.J. Walker has to wonder where his future lies.

Will Sam Darnold fend off Matt Corral in 2022?

Does Darnold have a long enough leash to fend off Corral?

When the Carolina Panthers hired Matt Rhule to be their new head coach after the 2019 season, they paid Baylor a $6 million buyout and handed a seven-year, $60 million deal to a coach who had spent only one season in the NFL — he was assistant offensive line coach for the New York Giants in 2012. Entering his third season on the job, Rhule is on the hot seat, having cobbled together a 10-23 mark with offenses that have finished 24th and 29th, respectively, in scoring.

As he steps into what could be a make-or-break season for his NFL future, Rhule will try to right the ship via the hiring of former New York Giants head coach Ben McAdoo as offensive coordinator and a selection of quarterbacks that includes Sam Darnold, third-rounder Matt Corral, and 27-year-old journeyman PJ Walker. In the words of Jim Carrey, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance.”

Sam Darnold

Acquired in April 2021 for a trio of draft picks, Darnold was off to a strong start, passing for 1,189 yards and five TDs in his first four games as the Panthers started the season 3-1. He further excited fantasy owners with his running efficiency, adding five rushing touchdowns in those four games — in hindsight that was almost certainly an aberration as the USC product has five rushing TDs combined across his other 46 NFL games.

The excitement was short lived.

While the loss of talented but injury-prone Christian McCaffrey was a blow to the offense, Darnold did nothing to make up for CMC’s absence and would struggle the rest of the way, getting injured as part of a disastrous showing against the New England Patriots in Week 9 during which he injured his shoulder. Darnold would return in late December to split time with Cam Newton, but nothing he showed over the final three weeks generated any enthusiasm for another year of Darnold at the helm.

Matt Corral

Corral started his final two seasons at Ole Miss under former Las Vegas Raiders head coach Lane Kiffin, who used an RPO system in which Corral excelled: He was the only FBS player to amass more than 3,300 passing yards and 500 rushing yards in both 2020 and 2021. That speaks to his athleticism and dual-threat potential where he has a live arm to make throws and the speed/shiftiness to excel as a runner.

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All of that athleticism is wrapped up in a 215-pound frame, however, and though he played through hard contact at the collegiate level, there’s no question the punishment will be ramped up in the NFL. There’s also room to grow with his progressions as Kiffin’s system contained built-in, predetermined reads. Emotional maturity was thought to be an issue in the lead up to the draft as well, but Rhule was said to be comfortable with Corral in that department.

PJ Walker

If Darnold melts down or gets injured, and the team decides that playing Corral will do more harm than good, then you could see Walker get some snaps. He’s 2-0 in two starts for the Panthers under Rhule, but at best he’s a game manager with limited athleticism. This is “break in case of emergency” stuff.

Fantasy football outlook

At this juncture, you have to believe Darnold is the prohibitive favorite to open the season as Carolina’s starting quarterback. His strong play last September is something they can try to build on, and the fifth-year pro has had isolated success in his career. On another positive note, Carolina has ample weaponry in wide receivers D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson and Terrace Marshall Jr., along with a pass-catching monster in McCaffrey.

Corral feels like more of a developmental project, and his lack of size is a possible concern for a team that allowed 52 sacks (fifth most in the NFL) last year — they did spend the sixth overall pick on offensive tackle Ikem Ekwonu to shore things up.

Neither player carries any draft-day appeal in traditional settings, though Corral’s dual-threat potential should make him an interesting target in dynasty leagues. Darnold is a fringe QB2 or much safer third in superflex designs.

2022 NFL Draft Scouting Report: QB Matt Corral, Ole Miss

How will Corral’s skills translate to the NFL and fantasy football?

Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral declared for the 2022 NFL Draft as a redshirt junior and is in the conversation of being among the top three players at his position in this year’s class.

A polarizing prospect, Corral’s outlook widely varies from pundit to pundit, but one transcendent aspect is his limited scheme fit. Most quarterbacks tend to get pigeonholed into a specific style of offense, but it’s a glaring reality with Corral’s style of play.

Height: 6-foot-1 5/8
Weight: 212 pounds
40 time: N/A (4.80-second 40 as a recruit in 2018)

Corral appeared in four outings as a true freshman in 2018 and was able to carry a redshirt designation into the next season, one in which he started a quartet of contests.

In 2020, the California native led the FBS in total offense per game (384.3) while finishing seventh in both touchdown passes (29) and aerial yards (3,337). He won Most Valuable Player in the Outback Bowl.

Table: Matt Corral NCAA stats (2019-21)

Year School Class Gm Passing Rushing
Cmp Att % Yds AY/Att TD Int Att Yds Avg TD
2018 Ole Miss FR 4 16 22 72.7 239 10.6 2 1 13 83 6.4 2
2019 Ole Miss rFR 10 105 178 59.0 1,362 7.6 6 3 57 135 2.4 1
*2020 Ole Miss rSO 10 231 326 70.9 3,337 10.1 29 14 112 506 4.5 4
*2021 Ole Miss rJR 13 262 386 67.9 3,349 9.1 20 5 152 614 4.0 11

*includes postseason/bowl games

Cutting down on silly mistakes was the most important aspect of Corral’s game that significantly improved in 2021. He threw 60 more passes and nine fewer interceptions. Several of his picks in ’20 were downright ridiculous, essentially lobbing gifts to defenders. All told, Corral’s final season saw him draw second-team All-SEC honors.

Pros

  • Moxie defines his game — plays with tremendous heart and constantly displays an obvious competitive streak
  • Lively arm, especially in the intermediate game — more than enough zip to throw from outside hash to opposing sideline on time
  • Has grown as a player and person — improved decision-making, accuracy, and maturity in his four years at Ole Miss
  • Confident in his skills — drives throws into tight windows, puts touch on passes against tiered coverage
  • Lightning-quick release is his best physical attribute — sound mechanics overall when given time
  • Savvy in RPO situations — great at tucking the ball to sell a fake and will hold-n-pull until the last moment if he spots a developing lane
  • While not known for his deep ball per se, he puts touch on a well-arced ball
  • Looks to throw first is dangerous with his legs, particularly so on designed runs
  • Patiently awaits play development (perhaps to a fault at times) and showed dramatic improvement in 2021 for his willingness to eat the sack rather than put one up for grabs
  • Has a chip on his shoulder that cannot be taught

Also see: 2022 NFL Draft Central

Cons

  • Some really ugly interceptions on tape — most of them came in 2020 as he was late to throw down the field and often into multiple defenders
  • Needs to improve touch and timing on underneath throws — lacks elite arm strength throwing deep
  • As previously mentioned, sometimes waits too long for plays to develop
  • Most apparent concern is his physical stature — players are who they are, so it’s tough to call this a true negative, but he has suffered a few injuries already and is smaller than the ideal NFL size
  • Really tough to see him maximizing his potential outside of a zone-read, play-action-heavy offensive design
  • Possibly some lingering concerns about maturity after altercations during his high school years — he has acknowledge and worked to improve, though

Fantasy football outlook

The immaturity issue is overblown, and Corral has developed as much as a person as he has as a quarterback. At a minimum, it’s unfair to penalize someone for getting into a fight in high school or being cocky four years later.

To his credit, while at Ole Miss, Corral recognized he was experiencing depression and sought medical treatment. We saw a direct correlation in his on-field performance improving as a result. That’s not an action typically taken by a rudderless, immature person.

Corral is unlikely to start in 2022 without an injury, regardless of where he ends up in the draft. It will be surprising if he is chosen in the first round as he’s likely No. 3 on most boards in what is a weak class, but trading up late into the first from a team afraid they could miss out on him in Round 2 makes more sense.

He’d be an intriguing fit for the Pittsburgh Steelers. The offense last year was run by Matt Canada and didn’t employ his personal flavor of designs as Ben Roethlisberger was a physical shell of his former self. Canada prefers an athletic quarterback who can thrive in an offense that features run-pass options. And it would give a long-term Plan B is Mitchell Trubisky falters.

Any team drafting Corral must accept they’ll have to mold the system to fit his talents and not be so rigid. He’s a legitimate NFL talent if the team around him provides adequate support. Typically, small-framed QBs don’t excel in fantasy football, but we’ve seen exceptions, most notably Drew Brees … Corral is no Brees, yet can can still muster value with his legs.

Other teams with elevated interest in Corral could be the Washington Commanders, Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints and Seattle Seahawks. Wild cards could be the Tennessee Titans, Houston Texans, Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions and New York Giants. Seattle and New Orleans figure to be the most likely landing spots, but the Brian Daboll-led Giants present a viable fit.

In the best-case scenario for fantasy, Corral will be something of a Russell Wilson-lite, and the other end of the spectrum has him washing out of the league by the end of his rookie deal. That’s quite the range, of course, so we’ll take a deeper dive once he lands on a roster. His game flashes elements of a younger Wilson, Trubisky, and Baker Mayfield.