Fantasy football preview: Carolina Panthers quarterbacks

Is there anything to see here for fantasy footballers?

The Carolina Panthers have struggled to get past the Cam Newton era but overhauled the quarterbacks room in the last three months. Carolina has become the dumping ground of 2018 draft failures, where Cleveland passed on Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson to take Baker Mayfield with the first overall pick, and the New York Jets followed shortly thereafter in taking Sam Darnold at No. 3.

Darnold was an undeniable failure in New York, getting run out of town when he struggled, and the Jets drafted Zach Wilson with the second pick in the 2021 draft to officially end the experiment. Although Mayfield led the Cleveland Browns to the playoffs in 2020 for the first time since 2002 and earned their first playoff win since 1994, his erratic play led to a 29-30 record as a starter and the signing of a megadeal with Deshaun Watson that eventually sent Mayfield packing.

Rookie Matt Corral was rumored to be in consideration as a first-round draft pick, but fell all the way to the third round and has the “QB of the future” tag, while third-year man P.J. Walker has to wonder where his future lies.

Can the Carolina Panthers make the most out of Baker Mayfield?

Can Matt Rhule, Ben McAdoo, and the Carolina Panthers get the most out of Baker Mayfield? We have our doubts.

After months of back-and-forth, the Cleveland Browns have finally granted quarterback Baker Mayfield sweet release from the franchise that selected him first overall in the 2018 draft, watched him develop into a near-top-tier quarterback in 2020, and then, saw it all collapse as Mayfield struggled last season through injuries, personnel attrition, and coaching inflexibility. The wisdom of the Browns’ trade for Deshaun Watson will be debated ad nauseam for all kinds of reasons, but now, Mayfield is out of that particular Dysfunction Junction.

On Wednesday, the Browns made a deal with the Carolina Panthers that sent Mayfield there in exchange for a conditional 2024 fifth-round pick. That could rise to a fourth-round pick based on Mayfield’s playing time. Why such a low return for the Browns? Well, the Panthers will take on $10.5 million of Mayfield’s $18,858 million salary in 2022, the Panthers will pay Mayfield $5 million, and Mayfield has agreed to eat the rest.

If you ever wondered how much Mayfield wanted out, there’s your answer. It’s an absolutely abysmal deal for the Browns no matter how you slice it. The probability of Watson suiting up in Week 1 (when the Browns host… the Panthers) is somewhere between slim and none, and slim just left town. That of course is due to the upcoming suspension Watson faces for multiple accusations of sexual assault. Cleveland will most likely start backup Jacoby Brissett in Watson’s stead for however Watson is suspended — not the worst possible outcome, but certainly suboptimal for a team that was thought not too long ago to have Super Bowl aspirations. And the Browns have nobody to blame but themselves.

That aside, how can Panthers head coach Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo bring out the best in Mayfield — to make this trade the thunderous franchise win it should be? I have already written about how Mayfield’s talents can be optimized in a vacuum; I’m far less sure about this particular fit — and whether this is the right offense.

How Baker Mayfield can be a top-tier quarterback — in the right offense

(All advanced metrics courtesy of Sports Info Solutions and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise indicated).

Panthers offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo was not a Baker Mayfield fan in 2018

Panthers offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo was not a Baker Mayfield fan in 2018. Now, Mayfield is his quarterback. Fun!

On Wednesday, the Browns made a deal with the Carolina Panthers that sent Mayfield there in exchange for a conditional 2024 fifth-round pick. That could rise to a fourth-round pick based on Mayfield’s playing time. Why such a low return for the Browns? Well, the Panthers will take on $10.5 million of Mayfield’s $18,858 million salary in 2022, the Panthers will pay Mayfield $5 million, and Mayfield has agreed to eat the rest.

If you ever wondered how much Mayfield wanted out, there’s your answer. But Mayfield’s new home might not be as instantly hospitable as he would like.

Panthers offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, who will never be mistaken for Bill Walsh, had this to say about Mayfield in 2018, after Mayfield was drafted, and when McAdoo was between gigs after being fired as the Giants’ head coach.

“He’s got an edge to him, I like that,” McAdoo said in a New York Post article in which ranked Mayfield sixth among draftable quarterback prospects. “He’s gonna lead, they’re gonna follow him. I didn’t see a lot of pro-style football in his college tape. And if you’re short you have to be able to make up for it some way, somehow, and personality doesn’t do that. I didn’t think he was a great athlete. This guy is kinda like a pocket quarterback that is short and with small hands, that’s what I worry about.’’

(As the Post pointed out, McAdoo “took it upon himself” to evaluate these quarterback prospects).

In this case, McAdoo’s analysis can be considered specious at best, and bizarre at worst. Mayfield has never been a limited-to-the-pocket quarterback per se, and his athleticism is actually one of his more positive attributes. Even in his injury-plagued 2021 season, Mayfield was pretty explosive outside the pocket, completing 26 of 61 passes for 319 yards, 218 air yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions. In 2020, when healthy and on the rise as a quarterback, Mayfield completed 70 of 126 passes outside the pocket for 970 yards, 666 air yards, seven touchdowns, and two interceptions.

So, maybe McAdoo will have to update his priors.

How Baker Mayfield can be a top-tier quarterback — in the right offense

Baker Mayfield will have another NFL team in 2022 and beyond. Here’s how that team can turn Mayfield back into the top-tier quarterback he was in 2020.

In 2022, the Cleveland Browns went all-in on a bet that could hamper the franchise for a good long time. When they traded first-round picks in 2022, 2023, and 2024, as well as the 104th overall pick in 2022, a third-round pick in 2023, and a fourth-pick in 2024 for a 2024 sixth-round pick and former Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson… well, it’s a franchise-defining move, but what that means, we have no idea. Watson’s NFL disciplinary hearing in the wake of a torrent of sexual assault lawsuits (many of which have been settled) happens this upcoming Tuesday, and word is that the league will be aiming for a suspension that lasts at least the entire 2022 season, if not indefinitely.

So, that’s a lot for a guy who will play for you… who knows when. In the interim, the Browns have completely alienated Baker Mayfield, the quarterback they selected with the first overall pick in the 2028 draft out of Oklahoma. The likelihood of Mayfield playing for the Browns in 2022 and beyond is somewhere between null and void; should Watson be out of the equation, backup Jacoby Brissett is the likely starter. The Browns have not traded Mayfield yet. The hangup there seems to be the amount of salary the trading team would be willing to take on. Mayfield is set to make a guaranteed $18.858 million in 2022, the final year of his rookie contract, and he’ll obviously want a new contract in his new home. The Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks have been tagged as the most likely destinations.

Setting aside the mess the Browns have put themselves in with Watson and his new, fully-guaranteed, $230 million contract that goes through the 2026 season, there’s the specific issue of Mayfield’s future as a starting quarterback, and where he fits best. After two NFL seasons in which he showed some promise and a lot of exasperating plays, Mayfield enjoyed a watershed season in 2020 — including the postseason, he completed 349 of 557 passes for 4,030 yards, 2,376 air yards, 30 touchdowns, nine interceptions, an ANY/A of 6.9, a passer rating of 95.7. an EPA of 49.17, and a Positive Play Rate of 49.0%. This put him in at least the top half of the NFL’s starting quarterbacks in every category, though he was in an offense that didn’t always play to his strengths.

The follow-up season, which got the Browns headed down that fractious Watson path, was not nearly as productive. Mayfield worked through a ton of injuries and more dysfunction in the passing game, completing 253 of 418 passes for 3,010 yards, 1,571 air yards, 17 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, an ANY/A of 5.4, a passer rating of 83.1, an EPA of -59.03, and a Positive Play Rate of 43.2. Mayfield had gone from top-half to bottom-third in one season, and though it wasn’t all his fault (given the injuries, it wasn’t mostly his fault), but we are left with the realities of things.

So, with that in mind, and with the goal to give an honest picture of what Mayfield can offer another team, we’re going to look far more at Mayfield’s 2020 season, assume his 2021 was a negative outlier based on injury, and project things forward from there.

How can a new NFL team help Baker Mayfield become the best possible version of himself? We have a few thoughts.

(All advanced metrics courtesy of Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise indicated).