DFS Fantasy Football: Favorite Pro Plays – Week 12

WinDailySports’ CEO Jason Mezrahi checks in with his top Week 12 DFS fantasy football for FanDuel and DraftKings

Top-ranked daily fantasy sports pro Jason Mezrahi, founder and CEO of WinDailySports.com, breaks down his favorite DFS plays at various salary ranges for Week 12 of the NFL season. We are back for another year of DFS domination and we have some new tools to take advantage of from my team over at WinDailySports.com.

Our projection model, lineup optimizer, and data tools have been revamped and back tested to start the season off right. So what I will do in this article is list some of our highest projected players based off raw points and our highest point-per-dollar plays based on DraftKings.com pricing. Special Huddle Member Discount: If you would like to give our membership at Win Daily a try, take advantage of a FREE 2-week promotion where you will gain an all access gold pass to our DFS package. Use promo code “thehuddle” at checkout for 2 weeks FREE for both our DFS Gold Package. Sign up now.
 
 
These are some of the players Jason will be locking in his lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel for this weekend’s slate.

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

$7,300 DRAFTKINGS
$8,400 FANDUEL

After three clunkers, Hurts came back with a vengeance in Week 11. The zero passing touchdowns mean nothing at the end of the day when you can score three on the ground. The rushing upside he provides secures a safe floor for cash games and the tournament upside to climb the leaderboards. The New York Giants defense is beatable across the board, and with the Eagles walking into New York as favorites with a projected point total of 24, things are again looking up for Hurts. The analysis is simple on this one: Take the quarterback with the highest rushing upside on a smaller-than-usual slate with guys like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray not playing. 

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Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

$5,600 DRAFTKINGS
$8,000 FANDUEL

… Similar story here with Newton. Since he returned to Carolina he has scored rushing touchdowns in both games capping off a 26-point performance in Week 11. Newton has fallen into a great situation to revamp his career with weapons like Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, and a solid defense around him. The price is right on Cam and the matchup is elite. The Dolphins rank 27th against opposing quarterbacks and give up the 29th-most passing yards per game. Newton checks all the boxes in Week 12: A cheap price, rushing upside, plus an ideal matchup. Feel free to play Cam in both cash games and tournaments this Sunday.  

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers

$9,000 DRAFTKINGS
$9,700 FANDUEL

I haven’t rostered McCaffrey all season due to injuries and an inflated price tag, but this is the week I’m buying in. Coming off 24-plus-point games in back-to-back weeks has me looking for ways to pay up for him in Week 12. Like I stated above, the Dolphins’ secondary is near league worst, and this is where McCaffrey is doing most of his damage these days. It’s an interesting stack to play Cam (for his rushing upside) and take CMC (for his receiving upside) as quarterbacks and running backs typically don’t correlate so well. With the Panthers projected to score 22 points, currently playing Cam with McCaffrey together secures the touchdown equity through both the air and ground in what could be a very solid floor for cash games if the Panthers show up in Week 12. 

AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers

$5,900 DRAFTKINGS
$6,900 FANDUEL

Dillon is in the exact same spot as last week and we get a $300 discount on DraftKings. Dillon was able to lock in 15.7 DraftKings points last week without scoring a touchdown, which is a solid floor to lock into at this price. Dillon still is the goal-line back and touchdown equity should be strong this week against the Los Angeles Rams. With a 47-point total in what Vegas is predicting to be a very close game through all four quarters, I expect a heavy workload from Dillon this week to secure him as the best value running back on the slate. Lock him into both cash games and tournaments in Week 12. 

Wide receivers

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers

$7,900 DRAFTKINGS
$8,000 FANDUEL

As long as Deebo stays on the field and stays healthy against the Minnesota Vikings, he has the most upside at the position by my standards. Cementing his role as one of the most talented offensive players in the game, Samuel continues to terrorize defenses each week. Deebo has averaged 22 fantasy points per game and truly possesses upside not many other receivers can reach. I have this game rated as his easiest matchup of the season so far, which puts Deebo at the top of my rankings at Win Daily Sports. The Vikings rank 30th against wide receivers, and it seems like to me that every time they face off against a solid offense the total of the game shoots over 60 points. I love this game from a stack perspective, and I will be buying a lot of shares from this game in Week 12. 

Laviska Shenault, Jacksonville Jaguars

$4,400 DRAFTKINGS
$5,600 FANDUEL

One of these weeks Shenault’s talent will show up on Sunday, and I hope I am still rostering him at that point. With Jamal Agnew now out and a soft matchup versus the Atlanta Falcons, Week 12 is lining up for a big week for Shenault. The targets have been there for him the past five weeks, averaging around six per game, and he may see a slight uptick this week. The price is right on Shenault, and the Falcons are allowing 27 points per game, so we are expecting some scoring from the Jaguars. I will roll the dice here and say Week 12 is the first time this season Shenault finds the end zone, and I will be taking shots on what should be low ownership on him. 

Tight ends

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

$6,100 DRAFTKINGS
$6,600 FANDUEL

Pitts has been quiet ever since Calvin Ridley went down and has had mediocre performances the past four weeks. This is a get-right spot for Pitts. The Jaguars rank 23rd against opposing tight ends, and the defense is giving up 25 total points per game on the season. The targets and talent is still there, and it simply comes down to finding ways to get him open and into the end zone. With some nice value on the slate and the top tier tight ends off, I am going back to the well with Pitts in Week 12. 

Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

$4,400 DRAFTKINGS
$6,500 FANDUEL

Tom Brady came right back to Gronkowski with eight targets in his first week back from injury, which is a great sign for fantasy owners. If the game stayed close with the New York Giants, we could have seen a 10-catch, 100-yard performance out of him last week. Now, Gronk is in a nice spot against the Indianapolis Colts, which should be a high-scoring affair with the game total set at 53. On top of that, the Colts currently rank 29th against opposing tight ends, which we know Brady will look to expose early and often. Take the discount on Gronk in Week 12 and let’s find some pay dirt on the field and in our lineups. 

Good luck in Week 12, and if you ever have any questions, please hit me up on Twitter!

Jason Mezrahi has been a professional, top-ranked Daily Fantasy Player on FanDuel and DraftKings for more than eight years. He has won FanDuel’s $155,555 King of the Diamond competition and placed second in DraftKings’ Fantasy Basketball World Championship, earning him $300,000. He owns and operates WinDailySports.com, which supports the DFS and Sports Betting community with resources such as tools, projection models, expert chat, in-depth written analysis and podcasts, plus much more.

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5 keys to a Jags victory vs. the Bills

The Bills will be the toughest team the #Jaguars face this season, but we think there is ultimately five keys that could lead to an upset.

The Jacksonville Jaguars will be playing one of the league’s best teams Sunday as the Buffalo Bills are coming to town. For that reason, many are expecting a rough day for the Jags who are on the opposite end of the spectrum in terms of placement in the NFL and have a 1-6 record.

However, as the saying goes any team can win on “any given Sunday” in this league, and the Jags are well aware of that. While they will be coming off a beatdown from the Seattle Seahawks, Sunday marks a new day, and we’ve seen the Jags stick with teams who are significantly better than them this season.

Of course, a victory won’t be easy, but if the Jags can make a miracle happen, here are five keys that could lead to them upsetting Buffalo:

Laviska Shenault Jr. gets it done as Jaguars get their first victory of the year

Laviska Shenault and the Jaguars FINALLY got their first win of the season.

It finally happened!

The Jacksonville Jaguars got their first victory of the 2021 campaign with a thriller against the Miami Dolphins in London. Kicker Matthew Wright played hero in a wild finish as Trevor Lawrence gets his first NFL victory as well.

Former Colorado Buffaloes star Laviska Shenault Jr. saw much more action than he did in the week prior but was still somewhat disappointing. The speedy wideout finished the day with six catches for 54 yards on 10 targets. Shenault finished third on the team in yards behind Marvin Jones and Jamal Agnew but tied with Jones for targets.

However, Shenault was the key to Wright’s game-winning field goal with a pivotal catch with mere seconds remaining. The Jaguars looked as if they were going to attempt a hail mary, but instead Lawrence threw a quick slant to Shenault and they were able to call a timeout with one second left.

That led to the heroics of Wright and sent the Jaguars fans and London into chaos.

It took six weeks but they finally got it done.

On the other hand, Shenault underwhelmed for the most part and the Jags couldn’t get him going. It is still a shock that Agnew had more yards on fewer targets, but the encouraging sign is that the Jags seem determined to include Shenault heavily in the game plan.

Jacksonville will head into their bye week and have two weeks to work on things and build off of their first victory in the 2021 season and perhaps more work for Shenault is finally on the way.

4 keys to a Jags victory vs. the Dolphins

With the Dolphins and Jaguars set to start off Week 6’s set of Sunday games, we have our four keys that could lead to the Cardiac Cats getting win No. 1.

The Jacksonville Jaguars will be taking the field for their annual game across the pond today and then will head into the bye week afterward. It certainly would be nice for them and their fans if they were able to do so with a win as it’s been since Week 1 of 2020 since the team last tasted victory.

Luckily, Sunday’s international game presents them with a good chance to make that happen as the Miami Dolphins are struggling at the moment and only have a Week 1 win (against New England) to their name. Of course, a big reason for that has been the absence of their starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, but they’ve also struggled defensively. In fact, their defense will come into the game ranked 30th overall and 24th and 27th against the run and pass, respectively.

With that being the case, in addition to the absences of receiver DeVante Parker and Xavien Howard, it would be a shame if the Jags couldn’t take advantage of Sunday’s game. However, here are some keys to the game that needs to happen to help the Jags avoid returning to the United States winless:

5 Jaguars whose stock is up on offense after Week 4’s game

We’ve pointed out many of the bad takeaways from the #Jaguars’ TNF game, but the offense did have its best performance. Here are five players whose stock is up from the unit.

The Jacksonville Jaguars sustained arguably their most heartbreaking loss since the 2017 AFC Championship matchup as an Evan McPherson walk-off field-goal gave them their 19th consecutive loss last Thursday against Cincinnati. As a result, they moved to 0-4 and are now one of two winless teams in the NFL.

However, there certainly were some positives to take away from the loss (yes, I know that’s getting repetitive). The offense had their best showing of the season and gave the national media a show. Ultimately, they finished the game with 341 yards and displayed the balance fans were hoping for with 24 passing attempts and 30 rushing attempts. Additionally, the unit didn’t have a penalty the whole game (Ross Matiscik’s came on special teams), which displayed great discipline on their part.

After having some time to reflect on the night the offense put together, here are some players whose stock went up after the best offensive performance of  the Jags’ 2021 season:

Laviska Shenault has career day vs Bengals

The DJ Chark injury has paved the way for more work for Laviska Shenault.

The Jacksonville Jaguars can’t find a way to win a game with Urban Meyer as the head coach and Trevor Lawrence as the quarterback. On Thursday night, the Jags dropped to 0-4 after losing to the Cincinnati Bengals on a last-second field goal.

But, former Colorado Buffaloes wide receiver Laviska Shenault played well on the night– really well. Shenault posted his best day as a pro with six catches for 99 yards on seven targets, and he added one carry for 11 yards.

Shenault suddenly became Lawrence’s top weapon after DJ Chark Jr. left the game with a fractured ankle, essentially paving the way for more big Shenault stat lines for the next few weeks at least.

Shenault was just one yard shy of his first 100-yard receiving game and almost made his way into the endzone on a highlight play by Lawrence.

In Shenault’s first three games of the year, he totaled 95 receiving yards and posted more than that against the Bengals. With the injury to Chark— who is out indefinitely– Shenault should be targeted a lot more than before.

It has been a rough start for the Jags, who finish the first month of the season without a victory, but at least they competed on Thursday. Urban Meyer’s team was up 14-0 at the half before Joe Burrow led the Bengals to consecutive touchdowns to get back in the game.

The Jags could very well remain winless for quite some time, with their next four games consisting of the Tennessee Titans, Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks, and the Buffalo Bills with a bye week snuck in the middle.

At the very least, Lawrence and Shenault seemed to build some chemistry, which should bode well for the ex-Buffs star going forward.

Six points with David Dorey

Friday’s quick look at six fantasy items to know

Heading into Week 4, and the NFL is still shifting and refining teams. There are five 3-0 teams, and the Rams are the only ones that went to the playoffs last year. The Chiefs and Steelers won their divisions but are currently in their divisional cellars. Not only can things still change, but there is an extra game for every team.

After three games, we’re starting to get comfortable with how players and teams are shaking out for 2021. We’ve got plenty of injuries left to see, unfortunately, but new opportunities for every replacement player. And with only three games to measure, we’ll later realize how several players opened with an easy spot in their schedule and will decline. And more than a few others who will still come to life once they clear a dark stretch of games that began their year.

Here are six things I am thinking about heading into Week 4 of the NFL season.

1.) James White (NE) – He’s expected to miss the season with a hip injury. He is a locker room leader and a popular player, so his absence impacts more than just his production. He started the season with six catches per game as he reprised the same role that saw him rank in the Top-20 in the final two seasons with Tom Brady. White was replaced by Brandon Bolden, who led the backfield with four targets for three catches and 23 yards. But that was just the response to the situation with the current players on hand. The Saints crushed the Pats 28-13, so there are few assumptions that should be drawn.

Damien Harris is the primary rusher with never more than two catches in any game. Bolden has never caught more than nine passes in a year since 2015. J.J. Taylor has three career receptions over his two years. The rookie Mac Jones has shown that he likes that relief valve of a third-down back, so the passes will continue. Bolden and Taylor are just depth. Rhamondre Stevenson looked great in the preseason, lost a fumble in his first game, and hasn’t been seen since. I expect that either Stevenson steps up and carves out a role as the No. 2 back. Or there will never be anyone that consistently serves as the third-down back. Bolden and Taylor are not new, and the Pats know what they have in them. Stevenson has the upside that at least we cannot know for sure that he won’t matter. Until next week, anyway.

2.) WR David Moore (DEN)  – The Broncos were already thin at wideout with Jerry Jeudy out for 6-8 weeks. Then KJ Hamler tore his ACL and is lost for the season. Tim Patrick subbed for Jeudy with solid results. Now the Broncos are replacing Hamler and grabbed David Moore off the Raider’s practice squad. He spent three years with the Seahawks and scored six times on his 35 catches for 417 yards last year before being released and landing in Las Vegas. The Broncos have already burned through two starting wideouts – never a good sign – and lacked enough talent on the roster to replace Hamler. Moore isn’t yet worth  grabbing, but worth watching.

3.)  WR Robby Anderson, WR Terrace Marshall (CAR) – The Panthers made Marshall their 2.27 pick, and the LSU product has some jets with a 4.38 40-time. He’s been the No. 3 wideout since Week 1 and peaked last Sunday with four catches for 48 yards in the win at Houston. Anderson started the year with only five catches for 103 yards and a score, including the 57-yard touchdown in Week 1 as his only catch. Week 3 saw Anderson with only one reception for eight yards at the Texans. Marshall has been the more productive receiver, but why?

In September, Anderson signed a two-year, $29.5 million contract extension, so he is very much in their plans. And HC Matt Rhule spoke about looking into what has happened. In some cases, Sam Darnold is just not looking to the right side. He’s locked onto D.J. Moore and also focused on McCaffrey, who is no longer an option. The important part is that Rhule realizes that there is a problem that needs to be addressed because they are ignoring their 1,000-yard receiver from last year that they are paying $29.5 million. This week in Dallas should get Anderson involved again, and the following month contains all softer secondaries.

4.) WR Josh Reynolds, WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN) – A.J. Brown  and Julio Jones both have not practiced this week with hamstring issues and are likely to miss their matchup with the Jets, who just lost one of their safeties. That would make starters out of Westbrook-Ikhine and some combination of Chester Rogers and Cameron Batson. But – Josh Reynolds may see the field. He had missed time with an Achilles injury that healed a week or two ago, but he’s been inactive on game days. Westbrook-Ikhine led the receivers  in their win over the Colts when he caught four passes for 53 yards and a touchdown.

Reynolds has no health limitations anymore, and this is why they acquired him in the offseason. He was the de facto No. 2 wideout until Julio Jones was signed. There is no certainty that he is active or has a meaningful game, but this is a situation where they need help. Rogers could remain ahead in targets, but this is Reynolds’ opportunity to get involved if they let him.

5.) WR Stefon Diggs, WR Emmanuel Sanders (BUF) – The Bills wide receivers have not been contributors as they were in 2020. Stefon Digs caught just one touchdown over three games and has yet to gain more than 69 yards. He averaged 96 yards per game last season. Emmanuel Sanders was brought in to take over the flanker and  was held to around 50 yards each week until his five-catch, 94-yard Week 3 that notched two scores on Washington. Cole Beasley also turned in 11 catches for 98 yards in that matchup.

Diggs still averages over ten targets per game. Facing the Steelers, Dolphins, and Washington Football Team went against top cornerbacks, though the same happened last year. These next three games of the Texans, Chiefs, and Titans are all softer secondaries. Diggs has to show up big this week. This is the perfect set-up for him to rebound and Sanders to maintain his higher-volume role.

6.) Laviska Shenault (JAC) – Last nights’ matchup of the Jaguars and Bengals sadly saw DJ Chark break his ankle before he even had a catch. Trevor Lawrence only threw for 204 yards, but Shenault stepped up with six catches for 99 yards. No other receiver had more than three receptions or 29 yards. After being shut down by the Broncos’ secondary in Week 2 when he netted a three-yard loss on two receptions, he was turned back onto many waiver wires and needs to be back on fantasy rosters.

The loss of  Chark should benefit Marvin Jones, but he was held to only three catches for 24 yards.  The passing offense will improve, and is home for Week 5 hosting the Titans. Shenault should be a popular waiver wire add next week.

Extra Points

After three weeks, it is interesting to see how teams rate in different categories.

Highest and lowest rushing attempts – CLE (101), TEN (99), BAL (97) … NYJ (61), PIT (50), TB (48)

Highest and lowest rushing yards – BAL (556), CLE (524), TEN (478) … GB (239), TB (169), PIT (159)

Highest and lowest pass attempts – TB (141), LVR (136), PIT (130) … CLE (80), CIN (75), NO (64)

Highest and lowest pass yards – LVR (1,203), TB (1,087), LAR (1,006) … MIA (599), CHI (400), NO (390)

Cardinals vs. Jaguars injury report: WR Laviska Shenault Jr. among full participants

After having an MRI this week, Jaguars WR Laviska Shenault was able to be a full participant in practice Wednesday.

The Jacksonville Jaguars had two players who weren’t able to practice Wednesday in center Brandon Linder (back) and rookie defensive tackle Jay Tufele (illness). The seven others who joined them on the injury report were either limited or full participants.

The report’s two full participants were pass-rusher Lerentee McCray (hamstring) and receiver Laviska Shenault (shoulder). Of the two, Shenault is a new addition to the injury report after banging his shoulder up in Sunday’s game against the Denver Broncos, while McCray, who was inactive against Denver, was on last week’s report.

Guard A.J. Cann (hamstring), cornerback CJ Henderson (groin), and defensive lineman Roy Robertson-Harris (ankle) were the new additions to the injury report who were limited. Henderson and Cann particularly were two players who were expected to be on the report after exiting Sunday’s game early.

Lastly, cornerback Tre Herndon (knee) and pass-rusher Jordan Smith (knee) remained limited participants as they were last week. Coach Urban Meyer told the media that Herndon has a chance to return this week as he’s been dealing with an MCL sprain he sustained in the Jags’ first preseason game against the Cleveland Browns.

Report: Jags WR Laviska Shenault avoids serious shoulder injury

Laviska Shenault was one of the players who came out of Week 2 banged up, but his injury isn’t one that is deemed major and he will be able to practice this week.

The Jacksonville Jaguars’ fanbase received a little bit of a scare Sunday when it was revealed that receiver Laviska Shenault Jr. needed an MRI, but according to several reports, surgery won’t be necessary. In fact, Jags coach Urban Meyer said he’d be able to practice this week.

During Week 2’s game against Denver, there was a play where Shenault was brought down on the Jags sideline and came up slow. A few trainers came over to look at him in the process, but he was able to finish the game.

Though some of his performance was probably a result of him dealing with the injury, Shenault had his roughest game as a Jaguar and only totaled two catches for a loss of three yards on seven targets. However, with the staff having high hopes for him, it’s a game the Jags will happily put behind them and continue to build on what positives they can.

Shenault was able to accumulate seven catches for 50 yards prior in Week 1, but has yet to make the impact many were hoping for after being one of the stars of training camp. When looking at his rookie season in 2020, though, fans clearly shouldn’t be hitting the panic button yet as he’s proven he’s more than capable of being a playmaker.

Laviska Shenault avoids major injury

Laviska Shenault underwent an MRI. However, he should be ready to go for Sunday’s game.

Former Colorado Buffaloes star Laviska Shenault posted a dud of a game on Sunday against the Denver Broncos. Then came a report that Shenault was scheduled for an MRI and things were starting to look worrisome for the second-year wide receiver.

But, Shenault and the Jaguars received some good news on Monday, and he is expected to play this Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals, according to Adam Schefter of ESPN. 

That is terrific news for the Jaguars as the ex-Buffs star has avoided a major injury. At the time, it was thought to be a significant shoulder issue, with some even saying he tore his labrum.

But, Shenault should be ready to go as the Jaguars aim to get their first win in the Trevor Lawrence-Urban Meyer era.

Shenault and the Jags are hoping for a bounce back after a rough start to the 2021 season. The Jags lost to the Houston Texans in shocking fashion, and then they lost in Week 2 against the Denver Broncos as Lawrence and the offense has seemed to hit a wall.

Shenault was wildly unproductive on Sunday, failing to gain positive yardage. To be fair, the Jags as a whole were ineffective on offense and suddenly Meyer is at an 0-2 spot.

The game Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals won’t be any easier, as Kyler Murray has been balling, and Kliff Kingsbury’s team is 2-0 to begin the 2021 campaign.

Nonetheless, terrific news regarding Shenault, and the hope is that his Week 2 outing was a rare occurrence.