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In this episode, Steve and Harley bring you NFL news and a double helping of “DFS Pay-ups, Stay-aways and Value Plays.” So Huddle up, tune in, and get Blitzed!
Breaking down the top players and sleepers for DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 12 DFS fantasy football.
Hopefully, everyone had a fun and profitable Thanksgiving day. At the very least, I hope that you were able to spend some drama-free time with your loved ones. So heat up a plate of leftovers and kick back, because we have some lineups to set!
GREEN BAY @ PHILADELPHIA
Aaron Rodgers (QB3) has to be happy to have another reliable WR at his disposal. Unfortunately, he has to face the stingiest pass defense on the slate. If you use Rodgers, consider stacking him with Randall Cobb or Allen Lazard instead of the obvious Christian Watson.
Green Bay has a decent pass defense, but it isn’t going to keep up with Jalen Hurts (QB1). Hurts will throw the ball at will and run rampant against the Pack. Expect 350 total yards and three total scores from the top option on the board.
Philly needed to improve their run defense so they went out and gave mercenary money to Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh. After two weeks of practice, they should be more heavily involved. Their presence drops Aaron Jones (RB4) and AJ Dillon (RB6) slightly in presumed production. Jones still deserves RB2 consideration, and Dillon could be a punt flex play.
Miles Sanders (RB3) has established himself as the alpha in the Philly backfield. If he didn’t have to cede some TDs to Hurts, I would’ve ranked him second here. He is my preferred RB2 this slate. Kenneth Gainwell (RB8) and Boston Scott (RB9) are both splitting the scraps now. You could use either in Showdown but leave them out of your main lineup.
Christian Watson (WR6) will be way over-owned this week. The Eagles have a pair of legit shutdown corners. I feel better starting the more reliable, Allen Lazard (WR4), and the better matchup, Randall Cobb (WR9). The calendar has changed from September, so Sammy Watkins (WR12) can be ignored.
With two of the top-three options this week in A.J. Brown (WR1) and DeVonta Smith (WR3), the three-leg stack with Hurts is definitely in play. Brown needs to be your WR1, and Smith should at least be in the conversation for WR2. I also feel comfortable playing Quez Watkins (WR11) as a WR3. You can ignore Zach Pascal (WR15).
The primetime slate is devoid of TE talent. Robert Tonyan (TE2) should be a reliable option against one of the few areas where you can attack Philadelphia. If you just decide to punt the position you could consider either Josiah Deguara (TE7) or Marcedes Lewis (TE10) based on the matchup. I wouldn’t, but you can.
Jack Stoll (TE6) has been the only TE to record a catch for Philly since the Dallas Goedert injury. Personally, I feel more confident taking a shot on Tyree Jackson (TE8) if I punt here.
PITTSBURGH @ INDIANAPOLIS
Indy has a stingy pass defense, but they have been bothered by running QBs. Kenny Pickett (QB4) has done little as a passer so far. However, he has put up modest numbers on the ground. Still, I’m not touching him on this slate.
Matt Ryan (QB2) has looked reasonable since returning to the starting lineup. It helps that he has almost all of his weapons healthy. Pittsburgh has allowed four passing TDs in three of their last six games. Chalk him up for a floor of 275-2.
Najee Harris (RB2) was promised the lion’s share of the workload in Week 11. He was gifted it, and he delivered a great performance. It helped that Jaylen Warren (hamstring – RB5) left early with the injury. Harris will be my RB2 in most lineups. If Warren plays, you can roll him out as a dart throw flex play.
Jonathan Taylor (RB1) is fully healthy, and he has Jeff Saturday’s confidence. This returns him to dynasty RB1 territory. On a weak overall slate, there is no excuse for not fitting both Harris and Taylor into your RB slots. Deon Jackson (RB7) will catch a few passes as a COP back for Indy, but he can be left for Showdown.
George Pickens (WR5) has surpassed Diontae Johnson (WR7) as the featured WR for Pittsburgh. Neither is a great play here. You probably have to consider one of them as a WR2/WR3 based on volume, just know they both have low ceilings. The matchup is so negative that the depth receivers, Gunner Olszewski (WR14) and Steven Sims (WR16) can be ignored in all formats.
Indy has involved all three of their top WRs recently. Michael Pittman Jr. (WR2) deserves No. 1 consideration as Pittsburgh has been absurdly bad against WR1s all year. I also like both Parris Campbell (WR8) and Alec Pierce (WR10) as WR3 plays based on their continued growth and involvement in the offense. Ashton Dulin (WR13) saw a lot of action earlier this year when everyone was hurt. Now, he is just a depth WR that can be left to Showdown contests.
How bad is the TE slate here? Pat Freiermuth (TE1) is the top option and it really isn’t close. He is coming off a blowup game, but don’t let that dissuade you from using him again. Zach Gentry (TE5) doesn’t see enough opportunities to return value. Still, he could be a TD-dependent punt play, if you spend too much elsewhere.
In Indy, they are playing “Wheel of Tight Ends.” Jelani Woods (shoulder – TE9) will eventually be the main guy. Right now, he has to shake off a shoulder injury and get back out on the field. With Woods likely out again, Mo Alie-Cox (TE3) and Marquise Goodwin (TE4) will need to continue to step up. Both would be ignored most weeks. On this slate, they are the TE3 and TE4 respectively. I’m okay with using one as a punt here, but I don’t love it.
DK Lineup: QB Joe Burrow ($6.7k), RB Kenneth Walker III ($6.9k), RB Rachaad White ($5.1k), WR Tee Higgins ($6.9k), WR Jaylen Waddle ($7.3k), WR Garrett Wilson ($4.3k), TE Hayden Hurst ($3.3k), FLEX Jeff Wilson Jr. ($5.9k), DST Kansas City Chiefs ($2.8k)
FD Lineup: QB Geno Smith ($7.6k), RB Jeff Wilson Jr. ($7.7k), RB Antonio Gibson ($6.1k), WR Tee Higgins ($8.2k), WR Jaylen Waddle ($8.1k), WR DK Metcalf ($7.2k), TE Austin Hooper ($5k), FLEX Latavius Murray ($6.2k), DST Denver Broncos ($3.9k)
FB Lineup: QB Joe Burrow ($6.7k), RB Jeff Wilson Jr. ($5.4k), RB Latavius Murray ($5k), WR Tee Higgins ($6.3k), WR Jaylen Waddle ($6.5k), WR Randall Cobb ($3.5k), TE Austin Hooper ($3.1k), FLEX Austin Ekeler ($7.2k), FLEX Kenneth Walker III ($6.3k)
| Quarterbacks | DraftKings | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | $8,200 | $9,000 |
| Lamar Jackson | $8,000 | $8,200 |
| Justin Fields | $7,400 | $8,500 |
| Justin Herbert | $7,000 | $7,900 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | $6,900 | $8,300 |
| Kyler Murray | $6,800 | $7,800 |
| Joe Burrow | $6,700 | $8,600 |
| Geno Smith | $6,000 | $7,600 |
| Tom Brady | $5,800 | $7,400 |
| Derek Carr | $5,700 | $7,300 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | $5,600 | $6,800 |
| Marcus Mariota | $5,500 | $7,000 |
| Trevor Lawrence | $5,500 | $6,900 |
| Jacoby Brissett | $5,400 | $6,900 |
| Russell Wilson | $5,400 | $6,700 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $5,400 | $7,100 |
| Andy Dalton | $5,300 | $6,700 |
| Matthew Stafford | $5,300 | $6,600 |
| Taylor Heinicke | $5,300 | $6,500 |
| Colt McCoy | $5,100 | $6,400 |
| Bryce Perkins | $5,000 | $6,600 |
| John Wolford | $5,000 | $6,600 |
| Mike White | $4,900 | $6,200 |
| Sam Darnold | $4,900 | $6,400 |
| Trevor Siemian | $4,900 | $6,300 |
| Kyle Allen | $4,800 | $6,100 |
| Taysom Hill | $4,800 | N/A |
| Trace McSorley | $4,000 | $6,200 |
Weekly strategy – Joe Burrow, Geno Smith, and Tua Tagovailoa are my favorite QB plays of the week. I don’t mind Justin Herbert or Tom Brady as pivots. Consider Jimmy Garoppolo or Trevor Lawrence to save even more money.
Joe Burrow, Bengals @ TEN
($6,700 DK, $8,600 FD) Only two teams are allowing more passing yards per game, and only three teams are allowing more passing TDs per game than Tennessee. Burrow is coming off a monster game, and he may be without his top RB again. We should see him air it out here repeatedly.
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins vs. HOU
($6,900 DK, $8,300 FD) Houston doesn’t give up a ton of passing yards or passing scores, but that isn’t due to some elite defense. It is due solely to teams not having to throw the ball against them. Dolphins RBs will eat this week, but Tua should still throw for a ton of points, too. You don’t actually think that Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will just cede their points to the RB room, do you?
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs vs. LAR ($8,200 DK, $9,000 FD) The Rams have some defensive weapons to limit Mahomes this week. That said, their pass defense has actually struggled recently, especially on the road, where they have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game. Bump Mahomes up even higher, if JuJu Smith-Schuster can go.
Justin Herbert, Chargers @ ARI
($7,000 DK, $7,900 FD) I don’t usually give too much cadence to home/road splits. However, Arizona is allowing only 202 passing yards per game on the road compared to 298 passing yards per game at home. This isn’t a small sample size, either. Plus, only one of six QBs traveling to Arizona has failed to score multiple TDs against them. Herbert is an elite enough talent to do serious damage here.
Geno Smith, Seahawks vs. LV
($6,000 DK, $7,600 FD) Smith has two or more total TDs in seven of his last eight games. Meanwhile, the Raiders have allowed two or more total QB scores in all but two games this season. Plus, they have been particularly susceptible to QB rushing scores. Smith will score both ways this week.
Tom Brady, Buccaneers @ CLE
($5,800 DK, $7,400 FD) Much like teams facing Houston, Cleveland’s pass defense numbers look better than they are since no one throws on them. Enter Tampa Bay, who throw the ball on a league-leading 66% of their plays. Even the Tampa RBs spend as much time catching passes as they spend toting the rock. Brady will have at least his top-three and perhaps his top-four WRs healthy for this one. I expect the GOAT to go off.
| Running Backs | DraftKings | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | $8,800 | $9,200 |
| Austin Ekeler | $8,500 | $8,800 |
| Derrick Henry | $8,300 | $9,500 |
| Nick Chubb | $7,800 | $8,100 |
| Josh Jacobs | $7,700 | $8,700 |
| Alvin Kamara | $7,300 | $7,100 |
| Joe Mixon | $7,000 | $8,000 |
| Kenneth Walker III | $6,900 | $8,400 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | $6,700 | $8,000 |
| James Conner | $6,600 | $7,000 |
| David Montgomery | $6,400 | $7,500 |
| Dameon Pierce | $6,100 | $6,900 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | $6,000 | $6,800 |
| Jeff Wilson Jr. | $5,900 | $7,700 |
| Leonard Fournette | $5,800 | $7,200 |
| Kenyan Drake | $5,700 | $6,500 |
| Raheem Mostert | $5,700 | $6,300 |
| Gus Edwards | $5,600 | $6,500 |
| Samaje Perine | $5,600 | $6,600 |
| D’Onta Foreman | $5,500 | $6,700 |
| Isiah Pacheco | $5,500 | $6,300 |
| Antonio Gibson | $5,400 | $6,100 |
| Michael Carter | $5,400 | $6,200 |
| James Robinson | $5,200 | $6,200 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | $5,100 | $6,100 |
| Rachaad White | $5,100 | $6,400 |
| Latavius Murray | $5,000 | $6,200 |
| Cam Akers | $4,900 | $5,900 |
| Elijah Mitchell | $4,900 | $6,500 |
| Kareem Hunt | $4,900 | $5,800 |
| Kyren Williams | $4,900 | $5,300 |
| Tyler Allgeier | $4,900 | $5,900 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | $4,800 | $5,100 |
| Keaontay Ingram | $4,800 | $5,400 |
| Chuba Hubbard | $4,700 | $5,300 |
| Jerick McKinnon | $4,700 | $5,500 |
| Justice Hill | $4,400 | $5,200 |
| Trestan Ebner | $4,300 | $4,900 |
| Isaiah Spiller | $4,100 | $4,800 |
| Caleb Huntley | $4,000 | $4,900 |
Weekly strategy – Austin Ekeler is the safest high-priced option. Still, I am likely to spend down and go with two of the following: Kenneth Walker III, James Conner, David Montgomery, one of the Commanders, and Jeff Wilson Jr. Injuries to other RBs could keep Kenyan Drake, Rachaad White, and Samaje Perine as viable RB2 plays. Finally, consider Latavius Murray based on volume.
Austin Ekeler, Chargers @ ARI
($8,500 DK, $8,800 FD) Multi-function backs such as Christian McCaffrey (2x), Kenneth Walker III (2x), Alvin Kamara, and Dalvin Cook have all feasted on this defense. Ekeler definitely fits the mold of a multi-function back. This feels like a 150-1 game with at least six receptions.
Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks vs. LV ($6,900 DK, $8,400 FD) Over their last four games, Vegas has allowed seven total RB scores. Meanwhile, Walker has been on a roll scoring seven times in his last six games. The TDs will definitely be here, as will the yards. What would make this great, is if we continue to see Walker involved more in the passing game (as he was in Week 10).
Derrick Henry, Titans vs. CIN
($8,300 DK, $9,500 FD) Henry at home should never be completely ignored. That FD price is high, but he can score multiple TDs on any given Sunday. This is important to know, because Cincy has allowed an RB to post multiple rushing TDs in two of their last three games.
James Conner, Cardinals vs. LAC
($6,600 DK, $7,000 FD) Conner’s value comes from his nose for the end zone. He has scored three times in the last two weeks. This matches nicely with the Chargers, who are allowing more than one rushing TD per game this season and a league fourth-worst 1.6 rushing TDs per game on the road. You aren’t going to get huge yardage numbers here, but two TDs will go a long way.
Jeff Wilson Jr., Dolphins @ HOU ($5,900 DK, $7,700 FD) The only question here is will Wilson score more TDs than Raheem Mostert? Heck, I might throw out a lineup with both of them. Together they will split 200 total yards and at least two TDs.
Antonio Gibson, Commanders vs. ATL ($5,400 DK, $6,100 FD) This is another split backfield where both backs should eat this week. Since Week 4, only one team failed to gouge this defense with their RBs. I’m not bullish enough on this offense to start both of them, so I’ll go with the one more involved in the passing game.
| Wide receivers | DraftKings | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | $8,800 | $9,200 |
| Davante Adams | $8,600 | $9,000 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | $7,700 | $8,400 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | $7,600 | $8,800 |
| Jaylen Waddle | $7,300 | $8,100 |
| Tee Higgins | $6,900 | $8,200 |
| Deebo Samuel | $6,800 | $6,900 |
| Mike Evans | $6,700 | $7,600 |
| Chris Olave | $6,600 | $7,300 |
| Christian Kirk | $6,500 | $7,700 |
| DK Metcalf | $6,500 | $7,200 |
| Amari Cooper | $6,400 | $7,800 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | $6,400 | $6,700 |
| Mike Williams | $6,300 | $6,900 |
| Tyler Lockett | $6,200 | $7,400 |
| Keenan Allen | $6,100 | $7,300 |
| Chris Godwin | $6,000 | $7,000 |
| Tyler Boyd | $5,900 | $6,700 |
| Terry McLaurin | $5,800 | $7,500 |
| Jerry Jeudy | $5,700 | $6,000 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | $5,700 | $6,600 |
| Courtland Sutton | $5,600 | $7,100 |
| Allen Robinson II | $5,500 | $6,800 |
| Joshua Palmer | $5,400 | $6,800 |
| Marquise Brown | $5,300 | $7,000 |
| Brandin Cooks | $5,200 | $6,400 |
| Darnell Mooney | $5,100 | $6,100 |
| Rondale Moore | $5,100 | $6,000 |
| Curtis Samuel | $5,000 | $6,500 |
| DJ Moore | $5,000 | $6,200 |
| Drake London | $4,900 | $6,100 |
| Kadarius Toney | $4,900 | $6,100 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | $4,800 | $6,300 |
| Devin Duvernay | $4,700 | $5,600 |
| Robert Woods | $4,700 | $5,700 |
| Zay Jones | $4,600 | $5,700 |
| Van Jefferson | $4,500 | $5,600 |
| Jarvis Landry | $4,400 | $5,800 |
| Mack Hollins | $4,400 | $5,600 |
| Demarcus Robinson | $4,300 | $6,200 |
| Garrett Wilson | $4,300 | $6,000 |
| Corey Davis | $4,200 | $5,500 |
| Treylon Burks | $4,200 | $5,900 |
| Marvin Jones Jr. | $4,100 | $5,400 |
| Nico Collins | $4,100 | $6,000 |
| Jahan Dotson | $4,000 | $5,800 |
| Julio Jones | $4,000 | $5,400 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | $4,000 | $5,800 |
| Chase Claypool | $3,900 | $5,500 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | $3,900 | $5,400 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | $3,900 | $5,700 |
| Chris Moore | $3,800 | $5,500 |
| KJ Hamler | $3,800 | $5,000 |
| DeAndre Carter | $3,700 | $5,900 |
| Kendall Hinton | $3,700 | $5,400 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | $3,600 | $5,300 |
| Elijah Moore | $3,500 | $5,300 |
| Marquise Goodwin | $3,500 | $5,400 |
| A.J. Green | $3,400 | $5,300 |
| Ben Skowronek | $3,400 | $5,100 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | $3,300 | $5,300 |
| Trent Sherfield | $3,200 | $5,400 |
| Robbie Anderson | $3,100 | $5,100 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | $3,000 | $4,800 |
| Justin Watson | $3,000 | $5,000 |
| Skyy Moore | $3,000 | $5,400 |
Weekly strategy – I will build at least one lineup with both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Davante Adams and Tee Higgins are the other WR1 choices for me. Christian Kirk, Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin, and the Seahawks could also be used there. I will probably use one of them at WR2. If Mike Williams is out again, Joshua Palmer is a must-start. Other WR3 options include the Texans, Curtis Samuel, Treylon Burks, Garrett Wilson, and Donovan Peoples-Jones. The only punt plays I like are Julio Jones and whoever starts for KC if JuJu Smith-Schuster remains out.
Fantasy Four-pack
Davante Adams, Raiders @ SEA
($8,600 DK, $9,000 FD) Adams leads the league in WR targets and WR touchdowns. He also has been on an absurd streak posting 26-413-5, over his last three games. Not that you need any more prodding to start him, but every WR1 to face Seattle this season has reached double-digit PPR points.
Tyreek Hill, Dolphins vs. HOU ($8,800 DK, $9,200 FD) As I mentioned above, Houston’s defense against the pass looks better than it is because no one has to throw it against them. That said, while Miami doesn’t have to throw the ball against them, we know they are going to. Hill holds a narrow lead on the field in WR receptions and receiving yards, plus he has scored in back-to-back games. He won’t score as much as the RBs, but he should still have a tidy 10-100-1 line.
Tee Higgins, Bengals @ TEN
($6,900 DK, $8,200 FD) Twenty different WRs have reached double-digit PPR points against the Titans. This includes such luminaries as Dyami Brown, Mack Hollins, and Jalen Virgil. Higgins is coming off a beast-mode game, and he should be seeking at least one more monster line before Ja’Marr Chase returns at full game speed. Chase reportedly wants to play this week, if he does, it won’t be at full speed.
Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins vs. HOU
($7,300 DK, $8,100 FD) Tyreek Hill holds the advantage in yardage and receptions, but Waddle has scored more TDs. This includes three scores over the last three games. Obviously, I like both of these studs. I just like Waddle a little bit more because of the price difference.
DFS Sleepers
Terry McLaurin, Commanders vs. ATL
($5,800 DK, $7,500 FD) Only three teams are allowing more passing yards per game than Atlanta. Plus, only two WR1s have failed to go berserk against them. McLaurin has been solid all season, but he seems to have stepped it up even more since Taylor Heinicke became the QB averaging 5.6-85.
Treylon Burks, Titans vs. CIN
($4,200 DK, $5,900 FD) Someone has to catch the ball for Tennessee. Well, it now appears that Burks will be gifted the opportunity to be that someone. Cincy has been solid against WRs this year, but their biggest deficiency has come against big-bodied possession receivers that don’t mind going across the field. Burks has shown that attribute, in the last few weeks, since his and Ryan Tannehill‘s return from injury.
| Tight ends | DraftKings | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | $7,700 | $8,200 |
| Mark Andrews | $6,500 | $7,300 |
| Taysom Hill | N/A | $6,500 |
| George Kittle | $5,300 | $6,200 |
| Gerald Everett | $4,400 | $5,200 |
| Tyler Higbee | $4,200 | $5,700 |
| Cole Kmet | $3,900 | $5,300 |
| Greg Dulcich | $3,700 | $5,300 |
| David Njoku | $3,600 | $5,600 |
| Mike Gesicki | $3,500 | $5,000 |
| Foster Moreau | $3,400 | $5,400 |
| Juwan Johnson | $3,400 | $5,500 |
| Cade Otton | $3,300 | $4,900 |
| Hayden Hurst | $3,300 | $5,100 |
| Evan Engram | $3,200 | $4,900 |
| Noah Fant | $3,200 | $5,100 |
| Trey McBride | $3,100 | $4,800 |
| Tyler Conklin | $3,100 | $4,800 |
| Austin Hooper | $3,000 | $5,000 |
| Harrison Bryant | $3,000 | $4,900 |
| Logan Thomas | $3,000 | $5,200 |
| Cameron Brate | $2,900 | $4,600 |
| Isaiah Likely | $2,900 | $4,500 |
| Will Dissly | $2,900 | $4,600 |
| Tre’ McKitty | $2,800 | $4,500 |
| Jordan Akins | $2,700 | $4,600 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | $2,600 | $4,500 |
| Adam Trautman | $2,500 | $4,500 |
Weekly strategy – If you want to pay up, go ahead. Both Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews are solid plays. That said, I am gonna pay less for Greg Dulcich, David Njoku, Foster Moreau, or Gerald Everett (groin) if he plays. If you choose to punt, use one of the Seahawks, Evan Engram, Austin Hooper, Logan Thomas, or Hayden Hurst.
Fantasy Four-pack
Travis Kelce, Chiefs vs. LAR
($7,700 DK, $8,200 FD) I don’t love the price. I don’t love the opponent. I don’t love the fact that he will be chalk after last week. That said, this is Travis Kelce, and the rest of the field is not Travis Kelce, I rest my case.
Mark Andrews, Ravens @ JAX
($6,500 DK, $7,300 FD) Andrews is the closest thing on the docket to Kelce’s reign. I will likely have more exposure here based on the easier matchup and the cheaper price. Still, both seem a bit overpriced.
Gerald Everett, Chargers @ ARI
($4,400 DK, $5,200 FD) Everett (groin) missed Week 11, but his early week practices suggest he will suit up this week. The matchup against the Cardinals, along with Mike Williams‘s (ankle) reinjury, is just begging Everett to step in and go off.
Greg Dulcich, Broncos @ CAR ($3,700 DK, $5,300 FD) Perhaps, the only positive coming out of Denver right now is the play of Dulcich. With Jerry Jeudy (ankle) remaining questionable, Dulcich should continue to receive a healthy dose of targets. Comparable TEs have posted solid lines against Carolina already this year. I like Dulcich for 5-60 and maybe a score.
Austin Hooper, Titans vs. CIN
($3,000 DK, $5,000 FD) Hooper has to be cheering for the return of Ryan Tannehill. He went from an afterthought on a team that doesn’t throw at all to an end-zone threat on a team that throws only a smidgen of the time.
Logan Thomas, Commanders vs. ATL ($3,000 DK, $5,200 FD) Thomas has actually produced this year when he has been on the field. Unfortunately, this has been few and far between. Several scrub TEs have posted solid lines against the Falcons already. I see no reason why Thomas cannot add his name to the list.
Breaking down the top players and sleepers for DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 12 Thanksgiving Day Slate DFS fantasy football
It is time once again to gobble up some bonus DFS action as we enter the Turkey Day slate. There is nothing better than stuffing your belly and then stuffing your wallet. Then you can go out the next morning and blow all that newly begotten wealth on Black Friday deals!
So, will Buffalo go home between Week 11 and Thanksgiving Day? The Lions haven’t played at Ford Field since Week 9, so the Bills will have actually spent more time in this stadium recently than the Motor City Kitties have.
On this slate, Josh Allen (QB1) has the best combination of arm strength and running ability, and he is no worse than second in surrounding talent on offense. Stack him with either Stefon Diggs or Gabe Davis.
Jared Goff (QB4) doesn’t have the natural talent of Allen, but he does have an elite WR. He also is not afraid to throw the ball 40-plus times a game to keep up with a higher-octane offense. Buffalo’s passing defense is nowhere near as fierce as they were earlier this season, and I like Goff as a bargain-priced pivot here.
Detroit has no clue how to stop the run. It has been a battle to the bottom between them and Houston all year (with Cleveland and the Chargers making a late charge, too). Unfortunately for Buffalo, Devin Singletary (RB3) typically doesn’t get the workload needed to really take advantage of this. I still think he is the safest RB2 on the board. Nyheim Hines (RB12) hasn’t done anything since his arrival. He can be left to Showdown. James Cook (RB10), on the other hand, has seen his role continue to grow. He could be a nice flex play.
Buffalo isn’t great against the run, either. Jamaal Williams (RB4) has been a TD machine. He needs to be in consideration for your RB2 slot. D’Andre Swift (RB7) finally scored last week. He also had fewer touches and yards than Justin Jackson (RB12). Against a worse defense, I might advocate for one of them. Here, neither is more than a desperation flex play.
Detroit is just as bad against the pass as the run. WR1s in particular have posted huge games against them. This is why Stefon Diggs (WR1) gets the top spot on the slate. His price will be high, but he will be worth it. If you want to save some money use his running mate, Gabe Davis (WR5). Just know that Diggs is a much safer play. Isaiah McKenzie (WR13) also is in play as a WR3. Khalil Shakir (WR17) should probably be left to Showdown.
Since Week 7, Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR3) has nearly as many targets as all of the other WRs on Detroit’s active roster. This sets up nicely for him as it has been possession WRs that have done the most damage against Buffalo this season. DJ Chark Jr. (WR16) finally returned in Week 11. Everyone in attendance at your family’s dinner had as many catches and yards as he did. His presence creates more operating room for St. Brown, but Chark is still looking like a bust. Josh Reynolds (back – WR9) has missed a month with a back injury. When he was healthy, he was a reliable WR3. If he can finally return, I’d gladly play him in that spot. If Reynolds remains out, Kalif Raymond (WR14) could be a sneaky WR3 play. Tom Kennedy (WR20) is certainly a fake name, but that name is on the player list, so I have to at least rank him. You can leave him for Showdown.
Despite having multiple other weapons, Buffalo has kept Dawson Knox (TE3) involved all season. Like every other position, Detroit cannot seem to cover TEs, either. Knox at a discounted price might be a nice third leg to an Allen-Diggs stack.
Detroit had an elite TE and they traded him away. Now they have two guys who are just serviceable at best. At least the matchup isn’t awful. Brock Wright (TE7) and James Mitchell (TE8) probably should be ignored, but I have a sneaking feeling that one of them will score this week.
This NFC East rivalry has a little extra gravy this week as these two teams battle for wild-card positioning behind division leader Philadelphia.
Daniel Jones (QB5) will have his work cut out for himself this week. Normally, I like him as a sleeper, but this time I’m not going to go out of my way to use him. That said, running QBs (including Jones in Week 3) have had some success against this defense, so he has that going for him.
As for Dallas, Dak Prescott (QB2) gets a solid but not spectacular matchup. Still, on a mediocre QB slate, his floor is higher than most of the rest. Stack him with CeeDee Lamb.
Saquon Barkley (RB1) doesn’t have the cream-puff matchups that he has faced the last two weeks. Still, it is always easier to run against Dallas, than throw against them. Matt Breida (RB13) scored last week, but he remains strictly a handcuff. Barring an injury, he has zero value this week.
Ezekiel Elliott (RB5) and Tony Pollard (RB6) are both healthy. Unfortunately, this means a split backfield and split production. If either was alone this week, they would be a top-three option. Still, each can be used as an RB2 or flex play. Elliott has scored in seven of the last eight games he has played against the Giants, so I’ll give him a small edge. Malik Davis (RB15) returns to irrelevancy with both Pollard and Zeke healthy.
The Giants’ WR room was maligned most of the year. Now, they are back to having only one solid option in Darius Slayton (WR10) as Wan’Dale Robinson (ACL) is out for the year. When he has played, Slayton has been reliable this year. Unfortunately, he will likely be saddled by Trevon Diggs. I guess Slayton still deserves WR3 consideration. The team also has Kenny Golladay (WR20). He used to be reliable. Now, it is a victory when he gets more than one target in a game. Bigger-bodied outside WRs have actually fared well against Dallas this season, so he could be a deep dart throw at flex. That said, I’d rather leave him to Showdown. With Robinson out, Richie James (knee – WR16) will start in the slot. He could also be a WR3 option.
CeeDee Lamb (WR4) is one of the few WR1 pivots that I like from Stefon Diggs and Justin Jefferson. Lamb actually has more targets than the rest of the Cowboys’ WR room combined. It helped that Michael Gallup (WR8) missed the start of the season. Gallup gets a lot of volume, but his final stat line leaves a lot to be desired. He is best left as a WR3. Noah Brown (WR12) has disappeared since the return of Gallup. In a better spot, I would consider him. This isn’t that spot.
Daniel Bellinger (eye – TE11) has missed a month now. He promised that he would return at some point this season. I don’t think it will be this week. If he plays, bump him up to TE5. Assuming Bellinger remains out, Tanner Hudson (TE6) or Lawrence Cager (WR23/TE9) could be a nice sleeper in a double-TE lineup.
Dalton Schultz (TE2) is a great option this week as the Giants have been a sieve of late against the position. Plus, Schultz has been a top-six TE since returning from his early-season injury. I highly recommend using both Schultz and T.J. Hockenson in a double-TE lineup.
I love the story of Thanksgiving. Especially the part where the American revolutionaries traveled westward to do battle with the Norse boatsmen. If for some crazy reason you are still hungry when this game comes on, make sure to watch my Twitter feed for our #Week12 #MatchupMeal featuring New England cranberry goat cheese stuffed Swedish meatball Juicy Lucys and red flannel hash.
Mac Jones (QB6) is the thanksgiving QB turkey this week. The matchup is actually positive, but he just lacks the talent. If you want to get crazy build a stack with him and Jakobi Meyers and then fall asleep early so you don’t have to watch that money go up in smoke.
Coming into this season, Kirk Cousins (QB3) was maligned for his failures in primetime. He has played admirably this season to erase some of that trend, but with his LT, Christian Darrisaw, doubtful with a concussion, he is in trouble here. Certainly, Kirk has the weapons, but he needs time to get the ball to those weapons. If Darrisaw plays, I will use Cousins. Otherwise, I will pass.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB8) and Damien Harris (RB9) were back to splitting the load last week. The Vikes are actually solid against the run, so neither should be more than an RB2 dart throw. I’d lean toward Stevenson since Minnesota has historically struggled with pass-catching backs.
The Vikings have to get their running game going this week. Dalvin Cook (RB2) had scored in five straight games prior to getting the game scripted away from him in last week’s contest. Unfortunately, the Patriots are neutral, at worst, against the run. Alexander Mattison (RB11) is purely a handcuff these days. He can be left to Showdown contests.
There are a lot of WRs in the room for the Patriots, but very few you can truly trust. Jakobi Meyers (WR6) is worth a WR2 slot. He has been the one consistent asset all year. DeVante Parker (WR11) came back from injury in Week 11 and didn’t do much. I don’t love the matchup for him. Nelson Agholor (WR21) has had six targets since Week 4. Still, he is one of the types of WRs that Minnesota historically struggles with. Tyquan Thornton (WR18) has seen more targets, but he has done just as little with them. Either of these two could be a punt WR3 at best. Kendrick Bourne (WR22) has done nothing over the last two months. He can be ignored.
Opposing WR1s have done little versus New England over the last month. That said, they haven’t faced anyone like Justin Jefferson (WR2) recently. The few higher-end WR1s they faced earlier this year did just fine against this defense. Jefferson will have a great game here, and he deserves WR1 consideration. Adam Thielen (WR7) had seven or more targets in eight straight contests before Week 11. The numbers haven’t been great, but he can be used as a WR2. K.J. Osborn (WR13) was featured in Week 10 and then he was ignored last week. The matchup isn’t strong enough to consider him as anything more than a punt play at WR3.
Jonnu Smith (TE4) has outproduced Hunter Henry (TE5) in recent weeks. I’d consider a pivot with either, but there is no clear advantage to using them considering the price differences aren’t huge between them and the highest-priced guys.
Quality TEs have feasted on New England this season. T.J. Hockenson (TE1) definitely qualifies in that category. Ironically, he was held to just 1-6-0 versus New England back in Week 4 when he was still with Detroit. That is more of a testament to the Detroit offense than Hockenson. I like him for 6-70-1 here. Johnny Mundt (TE10) can be ignored.
DK Lineup: QB Josh Allen ($8k), RB Devin Singletary ($5.7k), RB Jamaal Williams ($5.9k), WR Stefon Diggs ($8k), WR Jakobi Meyers ($5.1k), WR Kalif Raymond ($4.1k), TE Dawson Knox ($3.5k), FLEX Tony Pollard ($6.6k), DST New England Patriots ($3k)
FD Lineup: QB Josh Allen ($9.5k), RB Devin Singletary ($6.9k), RB Jamaal Williams ($7.1k), WR Stefon Diggs ($9.3k), WR Michael Gallup ($5.7k), WR Kalif Raymond ($5.5k), TE Dawson Knox ($5.5k), FLEX T.J. Hockenson ($6.3k), DST New England Patriots ($4.2k)
FB Lineup: QB Josh Allen ($7.4k), RB Saquon Barkley ($7.2k), RB Jamaal Williams ($5.6k), WR Stefon Diggs ($7.2k), WR Michael Gallup ($4.1k), WR K.J. Osborn ($3.3k), TE Dawson Knox ($3.7k), FLEX Tony Pollard ($6.3k), FLEX Devin Singletary ($5.2k)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | $8,000 | $9,500 |
| Dak Prescott | $6,200 | $8,000 |
| Kirk Cousins | $5,600 | $7,400 |
| Daniel Jones | $5,500 | $7,500 |
| Jared Goff | $5,200 | $6,900 |
| Mac Jones | $5,100 | $6,500 |
Weekly strategy – Josh Allen and Dak Prescott are the safest plays. Mac Jones and Kirk Cousins are the only two to fully fade.
Josh Allen, Bills @ DET ($8,000 DK, $9,500 FD)
Best offense on the slate versus the worst defense on the slate. Simply put, get Allen in there and stack him with as many players as you can fit under the cap.
Kirk Cousins, Vikings vs. NE ($5,600 DK, $7,400 FD) Cousins is a decent starting QB and he has some elite weapons, but if he doesn’t have Christian Darrisaw blocking his blindside, he is in a world of trouble. The Patriots’ edge rushers have to be licking their chops while watching footage from last week’s game.
Jared Goff, Lions vs. BUF ($5,200 DK, $6,900 FD)
Detroit will be playing from behind, so expect Goff to be forced to throw the ball a ton. Obviously, this means cue up the stacks with Amon-Ra St. Brown and perhaps Kalif Raymond or Josh Reynolds (back) if he can return from his injury.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | $8,000 | $8,800 |
| Dalvin Cook | $7,400 | $7,800 |
| Tony Pollard | $6,600 | $8,500 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | $6,400 | $7,200 |
| Jamaal Williams | $5,900 | $7,100 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | $5,800 | $7,000 |
| Devin Singletary | $5,700 | $6,900 |
| D’Andre Swift | $5,600 | $6,200 |
| Damien Harris | $5,500 | $6,400 |
| Alexander Mattison | $4,800 | $5,000 |
| Nyheim Hines | $4,500 | $4,900 |
| James Cook | $4,400 | $5,500 |
| Matt Breida | $4,300 | $5,100 |
| Justin Jackson | $4,100 | $5,200 |
Weekly strategy – Saquon Barkley and Dalvin Cook are both usable at RB1. If you can afford them. That said, I’m likely fading both due to their salaries. I’d prefer to pivot with two or three of this group: Jamaal Williams, one of the Patriots, Devin Singletary, or one of the Cowboys.
Saquon Barkley, Giants @ DAL ($8,000 DK, $8,800 FD)
I am going to have a hard time fitting Barkley under my cap, but he deserves to be there. He posted 126 total yards and a score in their earlier matchup. Plus, Dallas has allowed some big RB lines over the last month or so. I’m just scared of a repeat of last week’s fiasco versus Detroit where Daniel Jones and Matt Breida vultured Barkley’s TDs.
D’Andre Swift, Lions vs. BUF ($5,600 DK, $6,200 FD)
Buffalo isn’t very good against the run, but Swift actually played less than Justin Jackson last week. On a small slate, you can’t have this big of a goose egg risk in your lineup.
Devin Singletary, Bills @ DET ($5,700 DK, $6,900 FD)
Despite slowing down Saquon Barkley last week, Detroit continues to be an RB whipping boy. James Cook could eat into some of Singletary’s touches again, but if Devin is fed like last week, he will score for a third-straight week.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | $8,200 | $8,600 |
| Stefon Diggs | $8,000 | $9,300 |
| CeeDee Lamb | $7,100 | $7,900 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | $6,600 | $7,600 |
| Gabe Davis | $5,300 | $7,200 |
| Jakobi Meyers | $5,100 | $6,700 |
| Darius Slayton | $5,000 | $6,400 |
| Adam Thielen | $4,900 | $5,900 |
| Michael Gallup | $4,600 | $5,700 |
| Josh Reynolds | $4,200 | $5,600 |
| Kalif Raymond | $4,100 | $5,500 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | $4,000 | $5,200 |
| DeVante Parker | $3,900 | $5,400 |
| DJ Chark Jr. | $3,800 | $5,000 |
| Kenny Golladay | $3,700 | $5,300 |
| K.J. Osborn | $3,600 | $5,300 |
| Noah Brown | $3,500 | $5,200 |
| Kendrick Bourne | $3,400 | $4,900 |
| Lawrence Cager | N/A | $4,800 |
| Richie James | $3,400 | $5,400 |
| Tyquan Thornton | $3,300 | $5,300 |
| Nelson Agholor | $3,100 | $5,100 |
| Khalil Shakir | $3,000 | $4,600 |
Weekly strategy – Your WR1 should be either Stefon Diggs or Justin Jefferson. You cannot afford both. Gabe Davis, CeeDee Lamb, and Amon-Ra St. Brown are the WR1 pivot options. Use two of Darius Slayton, Jakobi Meyers, Michael Gallup, Kalif Raymond, or Adam Thielen as your WR2 and WR3. K.J. Osborn and Richie James are the only two possible punt play here.
Stefon Diggs, Bills @ DET ($8,000 DK, $9,300 FD)
Diggs has scored and/or topped 90 yards in each of his last six games. Meanwhile, Detroit has allowed a big game by virtually every alpha WR to face them. You need either Diggs or Gabe Davis in your lineup, good luck getting both of them under the cap.
Justin Jefferson, Vikings vs. NE ($8,200 DK, $8,600 FD) The Patriots go out of their way to take out an opponent’s top weapon. Well, Jefferson is clearly the top option on this offense. I know Bill Belichick is adept at this strategy, and he has last week’s game to pull from.
Kalif Raymond, Lions vs. BUF ($4,100 DK, $5,500 FD) or Josh Reynolds, Lions vs. BUF ($4,200, $5,600) This comes down to whether or not Reynolds (back) can play. If Reynolds is out once again, fire up Raymond. If Reynolds returns, fire up Reynolds. Both could have value as Buffalo is forced to deal with Amon-Ra St. Brown and DJ Chark Jr. on the outsides.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | $5,000 | $6,300 |
| Dalton Schultz | $3,800 | $5,800 |
| Dawson Knox | $3,500 | $5,500 |
| Daniel Bellinger | $3,200 | $4,600 |
| Hunter Henry | $3,100 | $4,900 |
| Jonnu Smith | $3,000 | $4,700 |
| Brock Wright | $2,900 | $4,600 |
| James Mitchell | $2,700 | $4,200 |
| Lawrence Cager | $2,700 | N/A |
| Johnny Mundt | $2,700 | $4,200 |
| Tanner Hudson | $2,500 | $4,300 |
Weekly strategy – T.J. Hockenson is the safest play. I’d also consider Dalton Schultz or Dawson Knox.
T.J. Hockenson, Vikings vs. NE ($5,000 DK, $6,300 FD)
Since landing with the Vikings, Hockenson has been peppered with 28 targets in three games. That is the fifth-most targets in the league during this three-game stand. Meanwhile, the Patriots rank near the bottom in points allowed to the TE. I can do the math, and it adds up to this being the best TE play on the board.
Hunter Henry, Patriots @ MIN ($3,100 DK, $4,900 FD)
Henry has begun to accrue fewer stats than Jonnu Smith. If I have to fade someone this week, it would be him.
Dawson Knox, Bills @ DET ($3,500 DK, $5,500 FD)
Knox has shed his TD-dependent label and started to post reasonable counting stats. Against Detroit, he should be able to do both. I love Knox as the third leg of an Allen-Diggs stack. He can also be the second option in a double-TE lineup with Hockenson.
Week 12 fantasy football news, daily lineup tips, and more!
In this episode, Steve and Harley bring you B.P.N. NFL news, and a double helping of DFS pay-ups, stay-aways and value plays. So Huddle up, tune in, and get Blitzed!
Breaking down the top players and sleepers for DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 12 DFS fantasy football
Hopefully, you have recovered from the indigestion of this past Thursday. Certainly, you can heat up some leftovers and make yourself a delicious sandwich. We just need to be thankful for our fattened bellies and our fattened wallets, and now we get a chance to stuff ourselves with a second helping of Week 12 DFS delight.
Baker Mayfield is starting to look like the Black Knight from Monty Python and the Holy Grail. On Monday, during the @BlitzedPodcast, I compared him to Cavity Sam from the game Operation. Nevertheless, Kevin Stefanski is forcing him to persist. Can’t they start the kid that is watching the stadium for Baker in the commercial? If he does finally decide to take a rest Case Keenum gets the start and arguably makes a better fantasy play. Whichever of these two starts will be the QB4 on this slate.
Tyler Huntley started last week and didn’t look awful. Obviously, he is not Lamar Jackson, and if Lamar is healthy there is no chance that he isn’t playing. A healthy Jackson is the QB1 on the board, and an unhealthy but starting Jackson is QB3. If Huntley starts, he is the QB3, but I am not going to use him.
Kareem Hunt may return this week. If he does, it is a decent play, but his presence will actually murky things up with himself and Nick Chubb. If Hunt misses this one (as he should with the bye pending), Chubb is the RB1. If they both play, Chubb becomes RB2 and Hunt becomes RB4. This also puts D’Ernest Johnson back out to pasture. No Hunt = Johnson RB6.
Latavius Murray returned in Week 11, but he still played second fiddle to Devonta Freeman. What is this, 2015? Cleveland has been horse-bleep against the run recently. One of these two will be the RB3, my money is on Freeman. Which should leave the RB6/7 range for Murray.
Jarvis Landry as the last man standing is the de facto WR1 for Cleveland. I feel better about his chances if Keenum gets the start. Still, Baltimore has been mediocre against the pass. Even the once-unflappable Marlon Humphrey has been burnt a few times recently. Based on volume, both he and Donovan Peoples-Jones (if he returns from his groin injury) are playable at WR3/FLEX. Rashard Higgins will start if DPJ is not ready to return. He just isn’t talented enough to use even in a volume situation. Their fourth WR this past week was Ja’Marcus Bradley. He was called up from the practice squad but actually led the WR room in snaps. His deep ball threat factor is a kind of a duplication of DPJ. So bear that in mind. If DPJ is out, Bradley could be considered, especially in Showdown. The wild card is Anthony Schwartz. He looked like a young stud in Week 1 but hasn’t done much since then. He missed last week with a concussion, but he could be a deep punt WR3 if he plays.
Marquise Brown missed Week 11 due to a thigh injury. Before that, he was a target hog for Baltimore. The development of Rashod Bateman was already due to start altering that. Still, Bateman proved last week he is young enough that he will operate best as a WR2 on his team. On several occasions, the Browns have allowed multiple serviceable WR stat lines. So both are in WR3 consideration on this slate. Devin Duvernay and Sammy Watkins just won’t see enough usage if both Bateman and Brown suit up. Devin can be used in Showdown contests, but leave Sammy on the bench.
Baltimore has faced a murderer’s row of TEs this year. So their numbers are slightly inflated. Still, Cleveland almost trusts their TEs more than their WRs right now. Austin Hooper gets a ton of targets, but his final line always looks pedestrian. The story has been similar for David Njoku. Neither is a great play here, but they both might have a price worthy of a start. Hooper would be my choice of the two as the TE3 on the board.
Cleveland hasn’t been challenged by many imposing TEs this year. Still, on a small slate, Mark Andrews will be no worse than the TE2, and he will likely be the TE1. He owned the Browns last year, and I expect a repeat performance here.
Baltimore has the best defensive matchup on the board. Against a broken Baker or a backup Keenum, they should be your choice at DEF this week. Cleveland would have value if Huntley starts, but I still wouldn’t rank them higher than DEF3 here.
On Monday, the broken shell of Russell Wilson has a potential get-right matchup with the Washington Football Team. Washington has been one of the worst in the league against the pass this year. It is clear that the injury has Wilson not quite right, but he still gets the QB2 or QB3 slot here.
Taylor Heinicke had an impressive Week 11 in a tough matchup against the Panthers. Coming into that game, Carolina was ranked 1st overall against the pass and Seattle was the 32nd-ranked defense against the pass. This bodes well for young Taylor. Assuming Lamar Jackson plays, Heinicke and Wilson will jockey for the QB2/3 slot this week. The price difference puts Heinicke into most of my lineups.
Rashaad Penny is injured once again. Alex Collins had a tough go of it last week, and this week won’t be any easier. He will be no better than RB4 on the slate and that ranking is boosted by his volume of usage alone. DeeJay Dallas got some runs last week, including a TD. In a better matchup, I might consider him. Here, he is no better than an injury-punt FLEX play. Travis Homer did nothing last week. I expect him to do even less this time out.
Despite a fumble, Antonio Gibson got the lion’s share of touches last week. After a few injury-fueled, midseason duds, Gibson appears to have put the clamp down on the primary ball-carrier role. This is a bomb spot for him. If Kareem Hunt plays, Gibson could finish as the RB1 on this slate. If Hunt remains out, Gibson is a lock at RB2. J.D. McKissic does enough as a change-of-pack back and through the air to have value in a good matchup. This qualifies as one of those. If you don’t use Gibson, strongly consider starting McKissic as your FLEX to save some money. Jaret Patterson has been used recently to spell Gibson, but he won’t receive the volume necessary to be relevant here unless Gibson reinjures himself.
DK Metcalf has suffered the most due to Russell Wilson’s struggles the last two weeks. He couldn’t have asked for a better opportunity here to get back on track. Washington has allowed multiple stud WR performances basically every week this year. Metcalf must be in your starting lineup, and he should be either the WR1 or WR2 on the entire slate. As I just mentioned, multiple WRs have smashed against this defense on a weekly basis. This means that Tyler Lockett could easily have one of his overdue three-touchdown games here. One of these two must be in your lineup. There is no excuse not to use one of them. Freddie Swain looked to be the WR3 early on this year. Despite playing a fair number of snaps, he hasn’t caught a pass since Week 7. I’ll leave him for Showdown contests. The same goes for Dee Eskridge.
Terry McLaurin is in the conversation for WR1/2 this week. Seattle is playing better against the pass, but they can still be exploited by high-end WRs. Plus, most of the rest of Washington’s WR room is so-so. A returning Curtis Samuel could give this group a boost but I expect him to be on a snap count in his first game back. DeAndre Carter has scored in three straight games. I love him at WR3. Adam Humphries used to have value in PPR formats. He hasn’t done much in weeks, despite the team being shorthanded. You can ignore him. Cam Sims scored last week, but neither he nor Dax Milne will see enough snaps to be worth playing, especially if Samuel returns.
Washington has been mediocre against the TE position. Unfortunately, neither Gerald Everett nor Will Dissly is an obvious play. Everett may battle with the Cleveland TEs for TE3 on the board, but I’d rather use other players in this spot.
Ricky Seals-Jones missed last week’s game due to a hip injury. He is not guaranteed to return this week. Even if he does return, Logan Thomas is likely to return this week as well. Assuming no snap count for Thomas, he jumps into the TE2 spot on the slate. If neither of them plays, John Bates will get another start. He looked serviceable last week, but he doesn’t have the huge upside that Thomas or Seals-Jones would have against Seattle.
The WFT defense could harass the clearly not 100 percent Russell Wilson into some errant passes. I will definitely consider them. There is no upside in playing Seattle here.
[lawrence-related id=462433]
At DK: $5.6k for Cam Newton. $6.3k for Saquan Barkley. $5.3k for Melvin Gordon. $8.3k for Justin Jefferson. $7.9k for Deebo Samuel. $6.2k for DJ Moore. $3.8K for Evan Engram. $4.3k for Ty Johnson at FLEX. $2.3k for the Houston Texans defense.
At FD: $6.6k for Ben Roethlisberger. $9.7k for Christian McCaffrey. $7.5k for Barkley. $8.1k for Jefferson. $7.1k for Diontae Johnson. $6.4k for Elijah Moore. $5.5k for Engram. $5.2k for Ty Johnson at FLEX. $3.8k for the Atlanta Falcons defense.
At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Tom Brady, Newton at SF, McCaffrey, and Damien Harris, Ty Johnson at FLEX, Jefferson, Chris Godwin, and DJ Moore, and Engram.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | $7,600 | $8,200 |
| Jalen Hurts | $7,300 | $8,400 |
| Matthew Stafford | $7,100 | $7,700 |
| Aaron Rodgers | $6,900 | $7,900 |
| Justin Herbert | $6,600 | $7,800 |
| Kirk Cousins | $6,300 | $7,500 |
| Joe Burrow | $6,200 | $7,100 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $6,100 | $7,200 |
| Carson Wentz | $5,800 | $7,300 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | $5,700 | $6,500 |
| Cam Newton | $5,600 | $8,000 |
| Daniel Jones | $5,600 | $7,000 |
| Matt Ryan | $5,500 | $7,100 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | $5,500 | $6,900 |
| Mac Jones | $5,400 | $6,800 |
| Trevor Lawrence | $5,400 | $6,700 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | $5,300 | $7,100 |
| Tyrod Taylor | $5,300 | $7,400 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | $5,200 | $6,600 |
| Zach Wilson | $5,100 | $6,200 |
Weekly strategy – Tom Brady is ready to blow up this week. I love him. My favorite pivots are Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins. Both Carson Wentz and Cam Newton can be used on DK but are a little too pricy on FD. Mac Jones and Tyrod Taylor are both serviceable punt options. That said, Ben Roethlisberger is such a bargain on both sites. I don’t see any way to truly avoid him. The only obvious knock is that he will have ridiculous ownership numbers.
Tom Brady, Buccaneers @ IND
($7,600 DK, $8,200 FD)
Brady leads the league in passing touchdowns, and Indianapolis has allowed a league-high in passing touchdowns. Can it be this simple? Yes! In case you had too much worry, Brady has gotten Chris Godwin back. He got Rob Gronkowski back. He is getting Scotty Miller back. He may even get Antonio Brown back, though it’s unlikely. I expect Brady to have his sixth start of the year with four or more scores. Heck, he doesn’t even have to worry about any weather concerns this week.
Matthew Stafford, Rams @ GB
($7,100 DK, $7,700 FD)
Stafford got a week off to get back on the same page with his offense. Sean McVay definitely broke everything down and he should return both healthier and more explosive. The Packers are short-handed on every level of their defense right now and none of their missing players are guaranteed to return this week. We know Cooper Kupp will get his share, but I can see stacking Odell Beckham and Van Jefferson this week as well.
Kirk Cousins, Vikings @ SF
($6,300 DK, $7,500 FD)
Minnesota is opening their offense up for Cousins, and he is responding by actually leading his team to victories. San Fran is actually pretty solid against the pass, but they have been bested by every single stud WR1 they have faced. This will be a hookup party between Kirk and Justin Jefferson. Even Adam Theilen is in play here as is the game stack with Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk.
Jalen Hurts, Eagles @ NYG
($7,300 DK, $8,400 FD)
I really don’t like that FD price here. Brady is actually cheaper as is Stafford and Cousins. That said, Hurts has been playing well thanks to his rushing abilities. We can never count on multiple running TDs, but Hurts does have multiple rushing scores in three of his last seven starts. He is also averaging 56 rushing yards per game. Any passing numbers that Jalen nets are cake, and the Giants serve up that cake on Giant-sized platters.
Mac Jones, Patriots vs. TEN
($5,400 DK, $6,800 FD)
Leave it to the Patriots to have the most NFL-ready QB in the draft fall to them. His passing yardage already has him as a QB1 this season. Somehow, the only QBs to struggle against this defense were Carson Wentz (in one of two meetings), Patrick Mahomes, and Matthew Stafford. The rest of the league has eaten them alive. Jones is a lock for 275-2 here.
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers @ CIN
($5,200 DK, $6,600 FD)
We have identified this week’s glitch in the algorithm – and this isn’t even the Fanball “Secret Agent” play this week. Somehow, Big Ben did not see an increase in salary despite getting over COVID and getting back Chase Claypool. Cincy has the offense to keep this game up-tempo. That will mean lots of passing opportunities for the Steelers.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | $9,100 | $9,800 |
| Christian McCaffrey | $9,000 | $9,700 |
| Austin Ekeler | $8,400 | $8,400 |
| Najee Harris | $8,200 | $8,800 |
| Dalvin Cook |
$8,100 | $8,100 |
| Joe Mixon | $7,500 | $8,000 |
| Leonard Fournette | $6,800 | $7,100 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | $6,500 | $7,800 |
| Saquan Barkley | $6,300 | $7,500 |
| James Robinson | $6,200 | $7,600 |
| Damien Harris | $6,100 | $6,000 |
| Aaron Jones | $6,000 | $7,000 |
| AJ Dillon | $5,900 | $6,900 |
| Darrell Henderson | $5,800 | $7,300 |
| Myles Gaskin | $5,600 | $6,200 |
| Devontae Booker | $5,400 | $6,500 |
| Eli Mitchell | $5,400 | $6,800 |
| Jeff Wilson | $5,300 | $5,800 |
| Melvin Gordon | $5,300 | $6,300 |
| Javonte Williams | $5,200 | $5,700 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | $5,200 | $5,900 |
| Jeremy McNichols | $5,100 | $5,500 |
| Miles Sanders | $5,100 | $6,100 |
| Mike Davis | $4,900 | $5,900 |
| D’Onta Foreman | $4,800 | $5,700 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | $4,600 | $5,500 |
| David Johnson | $4,500 | $5,400 |
| Sony Michel | $4,400 | $5,100 |
| Ty Johnson | $4,300 | $5,200 |
| Rex Burkhead | $4,200 | $5,700 |
| Boston Scott | $4,000 | $5,200 |
| Brandon Bolden | $4,000 | $4,900 |
| Nyheim Hines | $4,000 | $5,200 |
| Qadree Ollison | $4,000 | $5,200 |
Weekly strategy – All of the expensive options have a concern to me. Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor are both super expensive. As is Najee Harris and he had one of the quickest-cleared concussions in history last week. Joe Mixon, Leonard Fournette, and Austin Ekeler all have tough matchups. At this point, Dalvin Cook and Saquan Barkley with a new OC are the safest options. I’ll probably use C-Mac or one of them as my RB1. Choosing one of the Broncos at RB2 makes sense. I also like Darrell Henderson in that spot. That said, there are many interesting punt options. Miles Sanders, David Johnson, Ty Johnson, or one of the Falcons’ reserves if Cordarrelle Patterson misses another game could be in play at RB2/FLEX. I am spending up at WR this week, so I will probably use two of the cheap options at RB2 and FLEX.
Christian McCaffrey, Panthers @ MIA
($9,000 DK, $9,700 FD)
Miami appears to have improved their run defense over the last five weeks. That is until you look a little closer. In their last five contests, they have faced a who’s not who of fantasy RBs. In their first six games of the year, they were gouged like a pin cushion. They were especially susceptible to pass-catching backs like McCaffrey.
Dalvin Cook, Vikings @ SF
($8,100 DK, $8,100 FD)
Cook at a reduced price against a middling run defense. I’m game. This is just one of those spots where Dalvin is the safest of the high(er) priced options. I may pivot off of him to Saquan Barkley to save money for my WRs, but he is a lock for 100 total yards and a score. Plus, he can always add a few receptions to his counter.
Saquan Barkley, Giants vs. PHI
($6,300 DK, $7,500 FD)
Philly has allowed the sixth-most running back rushing yards, the second-most RB receptions, and the 10th-most RB receiving yards. Barkley is capable of exploiting all three of those categories. Plus, the new OC, Freddie Kitchens, is used to using a run-heavy strategy as he utilized during his season as Browns head coach.
Jonathan Taylor, Colts vs. TB
($9,100 DK, $9,800 FD)
Let me preface this by saying I will not be using Taylor at this price. That does not preclude me from including him in this article, however, as I always give you the top-4 projected scorers regardless of their price. Taylor proved last week that he can go off against a good run defense. This run defense is even more ruthless, so expecting a repeat performance would be a fool’s game. Nevertheless, Tampa can be beaten by pass-catching backs. Taylor should be able to put together some receiving-forward combo of 22-25 points here. That is actually pretty darn good, but not quite enough to spend this much. The fade is particularly useful here as others chase the points from last week.
Miles Sanders, Eagles @ NYG
($5,100 DK, $6,100 FD)
Can we really trust the Eagles back this week? Sanders has a great matchup on paper, especially since Jordan Howard is doubtful to play. Despite an early fumble, Nick Sirianni stuck with Sanders against a very tough New Orleans run defense, and he performed well. This matchup is much easier, let’s hope we don’t get any coaching shenanigans here.
David Johnson, Texans vs. NYJ
($5,700 DK, $6,200 FD)
Houston cut Phillip Lindsay, leaving only 12 others to battle for touches in this backfield. You’d think they would use the back they traded DeAndre Hopkins for. Of course, this is the Texans and their mental acumen has often been questioned. The Jets have given up 15 total RB scores over their last five games. Johnson did nothing with 16 touches last week, but with 16 touches this week, he could finish with 3-4 TDs.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | $9,600 | $9,500 |
| Davante Adams | $8,600 | $8,700 |
| Justin Jefferson | $8,300 | $8,100 |
| Deebo Samuel | $7,900 | $8,000 |
| Keenan Allen | $7,400 | $7,000 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | $7,300 | $7,700 |
| Mike Evans | $7,200 | $7,500 |
| A.J. Brown | $7,100 | $6,800 |
| Chris Godwin | $7,000 | $7,600 |
| Adam Theilen | $6,700 | $7,200 |
| Diontae Johnson | $6,600 | $7,100 |
| DeVonta Smith | $6,400 | $6,400 |
| DJ Moore | $6,200 | $6,700 |
| Chase Claypool | $6,000 | $6,500 |
| Jaylen Waddle | $5,900 | $6,700 |
| Brandin Cooks | $5,800 | $6,500 |
| Mike Williams | $5,700 | $6,600 |
| Elijah Moore | $5,600 | $6,400 |
| Michael Pittman | $5,600 | $6,600 |
| Antonio Brown | $5,500 | $7,000 |
| Jerry Jeudy | $5,500 | $6,100 |
| Courtland Sutton | $5,400 | $6,000 |
| Tee Higgins | $5,400 | $6,200 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | $5,300 | $6,300 |
| Marvin Jones | $5,300 | $5,900 |
| Julio Jones | $5,200 | $6,000 |
| Kadarius Toney | $5,200 | $5,600 |
| Kenny Golladay | $5,100 | $5,900 |
| Russell Gage | $5,100 | $5,700 |
| Tyler Boyd | $5,100 | $5,800 |
| Jakobi Meyers | $5,000 | $5,700 |
| Odell Beckham | $5,000 | $5,800 |
| Sterling Shepard | $5,000 | $6,200 |
| Darius Slayton | $4,900 | $5,500 |
| Kendrick Bourne | $4,900 | $5,800 |
| Van Jefferson | $4,900 | $5,400 |
| Corey Davis | $4,800 | $6,100 |
| Tim Patrick | $4,800 | $5,700 |
| Jamison Crowder | $4,700 | $5,900 |
| Robby Anderson | $4,700 | $5,400 |
| Laviska Shenault | $4,400 | $5,600 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | $4,400 | $5,400 |
| Nelson Agholor | $4,300 | $5,500 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | $4,100 | $5,600 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | $4,000 | $5,700 |
| T.Y. Hilton | $4,000 | $5,500 |
| Chris Conley | $3,900 | $5,200 |
| James Washington | $3,900 | $5,300 |
| Tajae Sharpe | $3,900 | $5,000 |
| Tyler Johnson | $3,900 | $5,300 |
| Allen Lazard | $3,800 | $5,200 |
| Randall Cobb | $3,700 | $5,300 |
| Chester Rogers | $3,500 | $5,300 |
| Quez Watkins | $3,500 | $5,100 |
| Zach Pascal | $3,500 | $5,300 |
| K.J. Osborn | $3,400 | $5,100 |
| Mack Hollins | $3,300 | $5,300 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | $3,300 | $5,500 |
| Nico Collins | $3,200 | $5,300 |
| Albert Wilson | $3,100 | $4,900 |
| Chris Moore | $3,000 | $5,000 |
| Danny Amendola | $3,000 | $4,900 |
Weekly strategy – We are going to be top-heavy at WR this week. I love Justin Jefferson and Deebo Samuel in the game stack with Kirk Cousins. Other expensive WRs that I like are both Buccaneers, Diontae Johnson, DeVonta Smith, and DJ Moore. I will likely pull both my WR1 and WR2 from that group. WR3 could be either Elijah Moore or Michael Pittman. I also like any of the Patriots or any of the other Jets here, too. That said, if I choose to go cheap at WR3, I love me some Laviska Shenault.
Justin Jefferson, Vikings @ SF
($8,300 DK, $8,100 FD)
The Vikings have made a conscientious effort to get their offense more vertical. Over the last two weeks that has equated to 17-312-2 for Jefferson. San Francisco is middle-of-the-pack against WRs, but they have allowed over 100 yards and/or a TD to every elite WR1 they have faced this year.
Cooper Kupp, Rams @ GB
($9,600 DK, $9,500 FD)
The price is high, but Kupp has delivered more often than not. On the season, Kupp is averaging 8.5-114-1. That is 26 points per game in PPR format. Coming out of the bye and facing a shorthanded defense, Kupp is good as gold (and roughly the same price).
Deebo Samuel, Niners vs. MIN
($7,900 DK, $8,000 FD)
Not only is Samuel the Niners’ top WR, but he may also be their top RB. Minnesota has allowed 14 WRs to top 10 PPR points this year. This includes every elite WR1 they have faced except DJ Moore. Plus, over their last four games, no team has allowed more WR scores or receiving yards than Minnesota.
Chris Godwin, Buccaneers @ IND
($7,000 DK, $7,600 FD)
This is pretty much cut and paste from last week. “No team has allowed more WR scores than Indy. Among opponents’ top WRs to face them, only two have not scored. One was A.J. Brown earlier in the year in a game he got hurt and left early. The other was Brandin Cooks, who still finished the game with 9-89. Not to mention, that three NOW FOUR of those top WRs scored multiple TDs against this defense.” The only question this week is whether Godwin and Mike Evans (back) each get multiple TDs or if only one of them does. Godwin is cheaper than Evans, and he has seen a larger target share of the two recently, so he is my top choice of the two. That said, go ahead and stack both of them with Tom Brady. Hell, make it a true Voltron Stack and throw Rob Gronkowski in there as well. While you are at it, you might as well get really slick and run it back with Michael Pittman, too.
Elijah Moore, Jets @ HOU
($5,600 DK, $6,400 FD)
Over the last four weeks, no WR has more receiving scores than Moore. He also has the sixth-most receptions and the fifth-most receiving yards among the position. Meanwhile, Houston ranks sixth in yards allowed to the position. Plus, they have allowed multiple double-digit WR PPR performances this season in more than half of their games.
Michael Pittman, Colts vs. TB
($5,600 DK, $6,600 FD)
Pittman had a tough matchup last week and he got prematurely taken out of the game script when Indy got so far ahead so early on. In this game there will be passing … oh yes, there will be passing. I don’t see any way short of an injury where Pittman doesn’t finish with a floor of 6-75-1 in this shootout.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | $6,400 | $6,700 |
| Kyle Pitts | $6,100 | $6,600 |
| Mike Gesicki | $5,300 | $6,200 |
| Dallas Goedert | $4,800 | $5,900 |
| Noah Fant | $4,600 | $5,900 |
| Hunter Henry | $4,500 | $5,600 |
| Rob Gronkowski | $4,400 | $6,500 |
| Pat Freiermuth | $4,300 | $5,300 |
| Tyler Higbee | $4,200 | $5,400 |
| Dan Arnold | $4,000 | $5,100 |
| Evan Engram | $3,800 | $5,500 |
| Tyler Conklin | $3,700 | $5,300 |
| C.J. Uzomah | $3,400 | $5,200 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | $3,300 | $4,900 |
| Cameron Brate | $3,200 | $4,800 |
| Jack Doyle | $3,100 | $4,600 |
| Jared Cook | $3,000 | $5,000 |
| Anthony Firkser | $2,700 | $4,800 |
| Donald Parham | $2,700 | $4,700 |
| Geoff Swaim | $2,700 | $4,500 |
| Josiah Deguara | $2,600 | $4,900 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | $2,600 | $4,500 |
| Ryan Griffin | $2,600 | $4,800 |
| Brevin Jordan | $2,500 | $4,600 |
| Hayden Hurst | $2,500 | $4,600 |
| Marcedes Lewis | $2,500 | $4,200 |
| Tommy Tremble | $2,500 | $4,600 |
Weekly strategy – Kyle Pitts will be under-owned coming off two duds. His price isn’t awful, but it is still likely more than I can afford. Dallas Goedert, Rob Gronkowski, and Noah Fant are my favorite higher-priced TE options this week. Still, I will be hard-pressed to not just start Evan Engram against the hilariously bad Philly defense. Pat Freiermuth is also in play with Eric Ebron likely out for the year. Ryan Griffin is really the only sure thing punt play.
Noah Fant, Broncos vs. LAC
($4,600 DK, $5,900 FD)
Only one team has allowed more TE scores than Los Angeles. This includes four over the last two weeks. Fant remains second in targets, receptions, and receiving TDs among all Denver skill position players despite missing 1 1/2 games with an injury. I like him to post a floor of 6-60-1 here.
Dallas Goedert, Eagles @ NYG
($4,800 DK, $5,900 FD)
The Giants are allowing more than 10 PPR points per week to opposing TEs. Meanwhile, since Zach Ertz was traded to Arizona, Goedert is second among all Philly personnel in receiving yards and targets, and he is tied for the team lead in receptions.
Kyle Pitts, Falcons @ JAC
($6,100 DK, $6,600 FD)
Despite the entirety of Atlanta’s offense going into witness protection the last two weeks, Pitts has actually continued to return at least a modicum of value. His 89 yards over the last two weeks are 40 more than the next closest Falcon. Jacksonville has faced only four upper-echelon TEs, all of them have finished with double-digit PPR points. Pitts will hit that as well, and his ownership will be minuscule since no one will trust this offense.
Rob Gronkowski, Buccaneers @ IND
($4,400 DK, $6,500 FD)
Much like every other passing position, Indy has been rotten against TEs. They have allowed the second-most receptions and receiving yards to the position, and the third-most TDs. Gronk returned last week and was right back on the horse catching six of eight targets for 71 yards.
Evan Engram, Giants vs. PHI
($3,800 DK, $5,500 FD)
Philly is dead last in every meaningful statistic against opposing TEs and it isn’t particularly close. At this price, I cannot fathom not using Engram. Of course, everyone else will be thinking that, too, so expect huge ownership. We can hope his dud against TB slows some of the ownership, but he did score in both games before his bye. This week he will make it three out of four, and that isn’t half bad.
Ryan Griffin, Jets @ HOU
($2,600 DK, $4,800 FD)
Griffin is really the only true punt play on this slate. Houston has been bottom of the barrel against the position all year. Meanwhile, Griffin has seen a slight uptick in targets since Zach Wilson has been out. This week we will find out if those targets continue with Wilson back under center. Griffin hasn’t done much with those targets, but at this price, one TD = 3x value.
WinDailySports’ CEO Jason Mezrahi checks in with his top Week 12 DFS fantasy football for FanDuel and DraftKings
Top-ranked daily fantasy sports pro Jason Mezrahi, founder and CEO of WinDailySports.com, breaks down his favorite DFS plays at various salary ranges for Week 12 of the NFL season. We are back for another year of DFS domination and we have some new tools to take advantage of from my team over at WinDailySports.com.
$7,300 DRAFTKINGS
$8,400 FANDUEL
After three clunkers, Hurts came back with a vengeance in Week 11. The zero passing touchdowns mean nothing at the end of the day when you can score three on the ground. The rushing upside he provides secures a safe floor for cash games and the tournament upside to climb the leaderboards. The New York Giants defense is beatable across the board, and with the Eagles walking into New York as favorites with a projected point total of 24, things are again looking up for Hurts. The analysis is simple on this one: Take the quarterback with the highest rushing upside on a smaller-than-usual slate with guys like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray not playing.
[lawrence-related id=462377]
$5,600 DRAFTKINGS
$8,000 FANDUEL
… Similar story here with Newton. Since he returned to Carolina he has scored rushing touchdowns in both games capping off a 26-point performance in Week 11. Newton has fallen into a great situation to revamp his career with weapons like Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, and a solid defense around him. The price is right on Cam and the matchup is elite. The Dolphins rank 27th against opposing quarterbacks and give up the 29th-most passing yards per game. Newton checks all the boxes in Week 12: A cheap price, rushing upside, plus an ideal matchup. Feel free to play Cam in both cash games and tournaments this Sunday.
$9,000 DRAFTKINGS
$9,700 FANDUEL
I haven’t rostered McCaffrey all season due to injuries and an inflated price tag, but this is the week I’m buying in. Coming off 24-plus-point games in back-to-back weeks has me looking for ways to pay up for him in Week 12. Like I stated above, the Dolphins’ secondary is near league worst, and this is where McCaffrey is doing most of his damage these days. It’s an interesting stack to play Cam (for his rushing upside) and take CMC (for his receiving upside) as quarterbacks and running backs typically don’t correlate so well. With the Panthers projected to score 22 points, currently playing Cam with McCaffrey together secures the touchdown equity through both the air and ground in what could be a very solid floor for cash games if the Panthers show up in Week 12.
$5,900 DRAFTKINGS
$6,900 FANDUEL
Dillon is in the exact same spot as last week and we get a $300 discount on DraftKings. Dillon was able to lock in 15.7 DraftKings points last week without scoring a touchdown, which is a solid floor to lock into at this price. Dillon still is the goal-line back and touchdown equity should be strong this week against the Los Angeles Rams. With a 47-point total in what Vegas is predicting to be a very close game through all four quarters, I expect a heavy workload from Dillon this week to secure him as the best value running back on the slate. Lock him into both cash games and tournaments in Week 12.
$7,900 DRAFTKINGS
$8,000 FANDUEL
As long as Deebo stays on the field and stays healthy against the Minnesota Vikings, he has the most upside at the position by my standards. Cementing his role as one of the most talented offensive players in the game, Samuel continues to terrorize defenses each week. Deebo has averaged 22 fantasy points per game and truly possesses upside not many other receivers can reach. I have this game rated as his easiest matchup of the season so far, which puts Deebo at the top of my rankings at Win Daily Sports. The Vikings rank 30th against wide receivers, and it seems like to me that every time they face off against a solid offense the total of the game shoots over 60 points. I love this game from a stack perspective, and I will be buying a lot of shares from this game in Week 12.
$4,400 DRAFTKINGS
$5,600 FANDUEL
One of these weeks Shenault’s talent will show up on Sunday, and I hope I am still rostering him at that point. With Jamal Agnew now out and a soft matchup versus the Atlanta Falcons, Week 12 is lining up for a big week for Shenault. The targets have been there for him the past five weeks, averaging around six per game, and he may see a slight uptick this week. The price is right on Shenault, and the Falcons are allowing 27 points per game, so we are expecting some scoring from the Jaguars. I will roll the dice here and say Week 12 is the first time this season Shenault finds the end zone, and I will be taking shots on what should be low ownership on him.
$6,100 DRAFTKINGS
$6,600 FANDUEL
Pitts has been quiet ever since Calvin Ridley went down and has had mediocre performances the past four weeks. This is a get-right spot for Pitts. The Jaguars rank 23rd against opposing tight ends, and the defense is giving up 25 total points per game on the season. The targets and talent is still there, and it simply comes down to finding ways to get him open and into the end zone. With some nice value on the slate and the top tier tight ends off, I am going back to the well with Pitts in Week 12.
$4,400 DRAFTKINGS
$6,500 FANDUEL
Tom Brady came right back to Gronkowski with eight targets in his first week back from injury, which is a great sign for fantasy owners. If the game stayed close with the New York Giants, we could have seen a 10-catch, 100-yard performance out of him last week. Now, Gronk is in a nice spot against the Indianapolis Colts, which should be a high-scoring affair with the game total set at 53. On top of that, the Colts currently rank 29th against opposing tight ends, which we know Brady will look to expose early and often. Take the discount on Gronk in Week 12 and let’s find some pay dirt on the field and in our lineups.
Good luck in Week 12, and if you ever have any questions, please hit me up on Twitter!
Jason Mezrahi has been a professional, top-ranked Daily Fantasy Player on FanDuel and DraftKings for more than eight years. He has won FanDuel’s $155,555 King of the Diamond competition and placed second in DraftKings’ Fantasy Basketball World Championship, earning him $300,000. He owns and operates WinDailySports.com, which supports the DFS and Sports Betting community with resources such as tools, projection models, expert chat, in-depth written analysis and podcasts, plus much more.
[lawrence-newsletter]
Week 12 fantasy football DFS advice, player news and more.
In this episode, Steve and Harley bring you B.P.N. NFL news, a Thanksgiving treat of double “DFS Pay-ups, Stay-aways and Value Plays.” So Huddle up, tune in, and get Blitzed!
Breaking down the top players and sleepers for DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 12 Thanksgiving Day Slate DFS fantasy football
Every year in late November we celebrate all of the things we are thankful for. After last year and all of the COVID craziness (including the rescheduling of one of the Turkey Day games), I am happy that we will be able to once again gather with our friends and family this Thursday to shovel in food until we are sick to our stomaches, argue with our relatives about the state of the economy and politics, and watch Chicago versus Detroit. Ugh, I guess, at the very least, we know which game we can plan our tryptophan nap during.
Yay, it’s a matchup of two turkeys! Actually, this is more like the matchup between the mayo-based salad that Aunt Polly brought but didn’t refrigerate and Tofurkey.
Justin Fields has not done enough yet this year to suggest that he should be a starting NFL QB. You could probably even argue that Andy Dalton would provide Chicago a better chance to win games. Not surprisingly, Fields left Sunday’s game with an injury, and Dalton immediately entered and threw a TD pass to Darnell Mooney. Of course, Detroit tends to make even the worst QBs look like future MVPs. On this slate, a healthy Fields or a starting Dalton both would get a QB4 nod price, either could surprise at a value price.
Tim Boyle started Sunday in place of the injured Jared Goff, and let’s just say that Boyle is no David Blough. Goff didn’t practice at all last week, so there is a solid likelihood that he won’t play on Thursday, either. Detroit’s only prayer is that he does. If either Blough or Suck gets the start, you can ignore all of their skill players even the few talented ones they have.
David Montgomery took no time in re-usurping the RB1 role in Chicago. Khalil Herbert looked great in Monty’s absence, but he has just as quickly vanished into the woodwork. Against a bad Detroit run defense, Montgomery is the easy RB1 on this slate, and Herbert could be a sneaky punt-FLEX.
D’Andre Swift is the only Lion that you can consider starting if Goff isn’t under center. Heck, you could argue he is the only one you should start even if Goff starts at QB. Jamaal Williams isn’t seeing the volume necessary to be anything more than a Showdown slate injury-pivot. Swift gets the RB3 nod this week, but just barely over Josh Jacobs.
Allen Robinson missed Week 11 due to injury and he missed the first 10 weeks of the season with a drop-off of talent. If he suits up, the matchup suggests potential success. Unfortunately, I don’t feel comfy playing him unless Dalton gets the start. Even then, he is no better than the WR6 on the slate. Darnell Mooney has been the safer play this year, and I don’t mind him at WR3/FLEX. But, again, I will probably have minimal exposure to this game as a whole. Marquise Goodwin is the Bears’ third WR. There is nothing “Good” nor “Win”-ning about playing him.
Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds would have deep WR3 punt value if Goff suits up. Otherwise, they can be ignored. Kalif Raymond may have more value than either of them due to his deep-play ability, but I don’t trust any of the Lions’ limp-armed quarterbacks to get him the ball.
Cole Kmet has been one of the best receiving options for Fields over the last month. Of course, with Dalton under center last week, he was barely targeted. The old man Dalton actually targeted the old man Jimmy Graham multiple times. I’d put either of them at TE5, at best, this week. Obviously, playing the trend based on which QB starts.
T.J. Hockenson has actually put up decent numbers all season, but his lack of scores and his occasional disappearance line has dulled most of his dynasty shine. Boyle actually targeted him the most last week, so if there is another Lion to consider this week it is probably him. No matter who is under center, I’ll rank him as the TE3 this week.
Chicago’s defense is in play this week, and it doesn’t matter who starts for Detroit. If anyone other than Goff starts, they become the best play of the slate. There may be some sense in using the Detroit defense at a costs savings. I probably won’t, but i can see the argument for it.
Nothing says Thanksgiving more than sitting alone with all of your fellow degenerates in a sportsbook in Vegas after engorging in an all-you-can-eat buffet. Fortunately, I’ve only done that once in my 46 years on this planet. I miss the days of old when we would get the Cowboys versus Washington on Turkey Day. Hell, this isn’t even a divisional rivalry. Who put this stupid schedule together for this week? I guess as a Chiefs fan I will be forced to root for Dallas in this one.
Derek Carr has played solid all season. Against a subpar Dallas defense, he should post 275-2 as a floor. On paper, his matchup versus opposing pass defense looks to be the safest play, but I still rank him as QB3 this slate.
As for Dallas, If CeeDee Lamb plays, Dak Prescott will be my QB1 this week. Otherwise, he slides to QB2 behind Josh Allen. Vegas’ defense isn’t bad, but they have been slightly out of sorts since their coaching change. Even short-handed, Dak is just too electric of a QB to not use in this spot – especially since he will be cheaper than Allen.
Josh Jacobs continues to get no respect despite actually putting up solid numbers all season. He has battled a few injuries, but when he has been on the field, the numbers have been there. Dallas has been very stingy against the run this season, which will relegate Jacobs to the RB4 on this slate. With his proclivity to score TDs, I could still see a decent case for playing him at FLEX. Kenyan Drake has gotten large stat lines on weeks that Jacobs has been out. In the weeks that Jacobs plays, the numbers have been less but still useable. If you need to shave some money, he also has FLEX appeal.
Ezekiel Elliott started the season in a true timeshare with Tony Pollard. Since their bye, Zeke has led the touches at a 3-2 ratio. Vegas has not been good against the run, so Elliott should be the clear RB1 here and in your lineups, assuming he isn’t limited by a minor ankle injury sustained last week. Pollard (much like Drake) has kept a modicum of value and you can use him as a FLEX play in this favorable matchup. If Zeke misses this game, Pollard becomes a must-start.
The biggest turkey of this football season was Henry Ruggs. Thankfully he is stuffed away in the Nevada penal system. His absence has opened up the green light for playing Hunter Renfrow and Bryan Edwards. Both are great options on this slate. I have Renfrow ranked no lower than WR5 and Edwards right around WR7/8. For what feels like the 10th time in his career, DeSean Jackson made an absolutely boneheaded play in Week 10. It remains to be seen if he will continue to hold Carr’s trust. His speed always puts him in Showdown slate consideration, but I won’t use him or Zay Jones in these full slate tourneys.
Amari Cooper missed Week 11 with COVID, sad he will miss this game as well. Cooper’s absence would’ve opened up CeeDee Lamb as the consensus WR1 on this slate. Of course, Lamb left last week with a head injury, and he is already doubtful to play on a short week. With both of them likely out, Michael Gallup and Cedrick Wilson jump into the WR2/3 range. Noah Brown has also seen an uptick in snaps and targets during Cooper’s absences. He would be best left for Showdown contests, but he could be used as a deep punt WR3/FLEX here, especially if Lamb is out.
Darren Waller has not had the season many had predicted this year. Still, he remains one of the best TEs in the league and the No. 1 tight end on this slate. Foster Moreau had vanished since Waller returned from injury. He returned last week and vultured a score. In a positive matchup, I could see using him in Showdown contests. I don’t trust him enough in full slate tourneys, though.
Dalton Schultz may eventually see his numbers go down when all of Dallas’ WRs are healthy. Fortunately for him, that hasn’t happened yet this year. With Cooper and Lamb still likely out this week, Schultz should see enough value to be TE2 on the board. Even if one or both of them returns, I still trust Schultz more than them.
The Raiders have a defense that has been solid but has been out of sorts recently. I don’t trust them here against the Cowboys. Dallas will get you a couple of INTs and maybe a pair of sacks, but there are better options available.
Last year the Thanksgiving evening game was postponed due to COVID. That won’t happen this year. For those of you that follow me on Twitter, make sure you check out this week’s #MatchupMeal. I promise that I won’t have any crab legs (sorry, Jameis Winston) or King Cake on the menu.
Josh Allen has played down to his competition recently. This has led to five INTs in his last three starts. Still, with all of the WR injuries in Dallas, I am ranking him as QB1 this week a shade ahead of Dak Prescott. The Saints gave up a trio of rushing scores to Jalen Hurts last week, so a rushing score is in play, but they also have a pass defense that is better than their numbers show.
Trevor Siemian certainly had no reason to believe that he would be starting this season. After all, he was clearly behind both Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill in the preseason. Winston is out for the year and Hill is dinged up as well, leaving Siemian as the primary QB for this offense. The numbers haven’t been awful for Siemian, but this will be clearly the best defense that he has faced. I can’t rank him higher than QB4 here. Hill, who was battling a foot issue, suited up but didn’t play in Week 11. If he is good to go for next week, he gets the QB6 ranking above anyone that Detroit starts.
Zack Moss and Devin Singletary consistently kill each other’s value. That is when Allen doesn’t kill both of their values. Heck, at this point even Matt Breida is outperforming them. Trusting any of them against an elite New Orleans’ run defense is a fool’s game. Singletary is used the most in the passing game, so if I was forced to choose between them he would get the nod. Fortunately in DFS, I am not forced to choose any of these stooges.
Alvin Kamara has missed the last two games with an MCL injury. On a short week, I don’t like his chances to return here. Jonathan Taylor exposed the Buffalo run defense in Week 10, so if Kamara can make it back he would be in RB1 consideration. As it stands, Mark Ingram will get his third-straight start, and he makes a solid RB3/4. I love him at FLEX this week. Tony Jones returned from his ankle injury last week but didn’t do anything. I don’t see any reason to stretch and play him.
Stefon Diggs will always have the memory of the Minneapolis Miracle when he scored the last-second TD to knock New Orleans out of the playoffs a couple of years back while with Minnesota. On that play, he wasn’t being shadowed by Marshon Lattimore. This week, Lattimore will be hounding him. Diggs is still talented enough to get the WR2 nod on a bad WR slate. Just know that he probably won’t reach 3x value, unless he can get himself into the end zone. Cole Beasley has had a pair of letdown weeks. He will need to be the focal point this week if Diggs is corraled. He is always in play because of his PPR potential, but I especially like him in this spot. I also like Emmanuel Sanders this week with the revenge game narrative in play. One of these two should likely be your WR2. Gabriel Davis has been a hit-or-miss play this year. I prefer to use him in Showdown lineups. That said if you want a cheap WR3/FLEX play, you could do a lot worse.
New Orleans’ WR room is full of a bunch of guys that I couldn’t ID in a lineup alongside Shaquille O’Neal. Tre’Quan Smith has been featured the most of late. This means that he will likely be forced to be swallowed whole by a fellow Tre’, Tre’Davious White. WR1s tend to do nothing versus White’s coverage. I feel much better about using Marquez Callaway. I could see using him as a WR3 at a costs savings. Deonte Harris can also be considered in that conversation since he has home run potential. He will only be thwarted by Siemian’s lack of arm strength. Still, he is a must-start in Showdown contests. Lil’Jordan Humphrey scored a TD last week. It was only his second catch of the year. I’ll wait until he turns into Big’Jordan before playing him.
Dawson Knox had a huge game last week. This matchup is nowhere near as strong for him. I still like him to approach 5-45 and maybe a score, but that will only get him the TE4 status here.
Adam Trautman also had an easy matchup in Week 11. He also has seen the lion’s share of looks and targets since Siemian took over. Travis Kelce is the only TE to do anything against this defense all season. Unfortunately, he somehow was ruled out Monday with an MCL injury. This means that we will see some combination of Nick Vannett and Juwan Johnson. I’m not going to run out to pay either of them outside of Showdown contests.
Before last week, I would’ve recommended the Bills defense here. Now, I am not so sure. I don’t hate the play but I’d rather pay less. As for New Orleans, considering Allen’s recent INT struggles, they could be in play. I just don’t know if I trust them against an offense with such potential boom-ability.
Here are my recommended lineups.
At DK: $5.9k for Derek Carr. $7.3K for D’Andre Swift. $6k for David Montgomery. $5.9k for Michael Gallup. $5.6k for Hunter Renfrow. $3.5k for Cedrick Wilson. $6.4k for Darren Waller. $6.2k for Mark Ingram at FLEX. $3k for the Bears defense.
At FD: $7.4k for Carr. $7.5k for Montgomery. $8k for Swift. $6.5k for Gallup. $6.2k for Renfrow. $5.7k for Cole Beasley. $6k for Dalton Schultz. $7.3k for Waller at FLEX. $5k for the Bears defense.
At Fanball (featuring SuperFlex): Carr, Dak Prescott at SF, Swift, and Montgomery at RB, Ingram at FLEX, Gallup, Renfrow, and Beasley at WR, and Waller at TE.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | $7,800 | $8,800 |
| Dak Prescott | $6,900 | $8,200 |
| Derek Carr | $5,900 | $7,400 |
| Trevor Siemian | $5,600 | $7,000 |
| Andy Dalton | $5,500 | $7,200 |
| Justin Fields | $5,400 | $7,200 |
| Jared Goff | $5,100 | $6,700 |
| Taysom Hill | $4,800 | $7,000 |
| Tim Boyle | $4,800 | $6,200 |
| David Blough | $4,600 | $6,100 |
Weekly strategy – Really the only QB that is not usable is the one who starts for Detroit. I probably won’t use Josh Allen because of the cost, but he isn’t a bad play. Based on price, Derek Carr is probably who I will use. I could also roll with whoever starts for the Bears.
Pay to Play:
Dak Prescott, Cowboys vs. LV ($6,900 DK, $8,200 FD)
I realize that Dallas may be without their top two WRs, but Dallas still has a strong offense and Vegas’ defense is the second-weakest on the board. Plus, there is still the outside chance that CeeDee Lamb plays.
Stay Away:
Trevor Siemian, Saints vs. BUF ($5,600 DK, $7,000 FD) Buffalo proved touchable last week … against the run. They still are elite against the pass. They have allowed SEVEN passing TDs all season. The next closest team has allowed 12. They also have allowed nearly 220 fewer yards than the next closest team. You can count on Siemian versus so-so defenses, not in a spot like this. If the Saints are going to succeed this week, it will come because of the running game.
Value Play:
Derek Carr, Raiders @ DAL ($5,900 DK, $7,400 FD)
Carr is facing a Dallas defense that has played better of late, but that is still no better than the middle of the pack against the pass. Dallas is prone to allowing big plays.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | $8,000 | $8,400 |
| Alvin Kamara | $7,800 | $9,000 |
| D’Andre Swift | $7,300 | $8,000 |
| Mark Ingram | $6,200 | $6,600 |
| David Montgomery | $6,000 | $7,500 |
| Josh Jacobs | $5,900 | $6,700 |
| Tony Pollard | $5,600 | $5,900 |
| Devin Singletary | $4,900 | $5,800 |
| Matt Breida | $4,800 | $5,300 |
| Zack Moss | $4,700 | $5,700 |
| Kenyan Drake | $4,600 | $5,600 |
| Khalil Herbert | $4,500 | $4,900 |
| Jalen Richard | $4,000 | $4,700 |
| Jamaal Williams | $4,000 | $5,200 |
| Tony Jones | $4,000 | $4,800 |
Weekly strategy – David Montgomery has the best matchup this week. He will be my RB1. Ezekiel Elliott and D’Andre Swift are the two best options at RB2. I will likely use either Mark Ingram or Josh Jacobs at FLEX. Kenyan Drake, Devin Singletary, and Tony Pollard are the possible punts.
Pay to Play:
Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys vs. LV ($8,000 DK, $8,400 FD)
The price is high for Zeke, but Vegas has allowed more than their share of RB scores this year. Plus, with a short-handed passing game, Dallas will likely lean more on their RBs.
Stay Away:
All of the Bills, Bills @ NO (Devin Singletary $4,900 DK, $5,800 FD / Matt Breida $4800 DK, $5,300 FD / Zack Moss 4,700 DK, $5,700 FD)
Only two teams have allowed fewer total yards to the RB position than New Orleans. Plus, these three eat into each other’s touches, and all three rank behind Josh Allen in the Bills’ rushing game plan.
Value Play:
David Montgomery, Bears @ DET ($6,000 DK, $7,500 FD)
Detroit has allowed the league’s second-most 17 total RB touchdowns. Montgomery is capable of getting it done in the air or on the ground. He’ll do both here.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | $7,900 | $8,300 |
| CeeDee Lamb | $6,900 | $7,700 |
| Amari Cooper | $6,000 | $7,000 |
| Michael Gallup | $5,900 | $6,500 |
| Darnell Mooney | $5,700 | $6,800 |
| Hunter Renfrow | $5,600 | $6,200 |
| Allen Robinson | $5,100 | $6,000 |
| Marquez Callaway | $5,000 | $5,700 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | $4,800 | $5,800 |
| Kalif Raymond | $4,600 | $5,100 |
| Cole Beasley | $4,500 | $5,700 |
| Tre’Quan Smith | $4,400 | $5,900 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | $4,200 | $5,500 |
| Bryan Edwards | $3,900 | $5,300 |
| Marquise Goodwin | $3,800 | $5,400 |
| Deonte Harris | $3,700 | $5,200 |
| Gabriel Davis | $3,600 | $4,800 |
| Cedrick Wilson | $3,500 | $5,600 |
| DeSean Jackson | $3,100 | $5,000 |
| Damiere Byrd | $3,000 | $4,800 |
| Josh Reynolds | $3,000 | $4,900 |
| Kenny Stills | $3,000 | $4,600 |
| Malik Turner | $3,000 | $4,600 |
| Noah Brown | $3,000 | $4,700 |
Weekly strategy – The WR class on Thursday is not very nice. We have Stefon Diggs up top with a tough CB assignment. We have the top two WRs for Dallas doubtful to play. Basically, there are three sure-thing options: Hunter Renfrow, Darnell Mooney, and Michael Gallup. All three of those options would typically be no higher than WR2 on any team. I don’t mind Cole Beasley, Marquez Callaway, and Cedrick Wilson as pivots. Bryan Edwards and Deonte Harris are my only punt options.
Pay to Play:
Michael Gallup, Cowboys vs. LV ($5,900 DK, $6,500 FD)
Someone has to be Dak Prescott’s WR1 this week. Vegas has allowed only eight WR scores this season, but three of those have come in the last two weeks. The Raiders are definitely not performing as they did early on, and Gallup will get to benefit from it.
Stay Away:
Stefon Diggs, Bills @ NO ($7,900 DK, $8,300 FD) Diggs is usually a great play because he can beat even the best cornerbacks. This week will be a test of that theory as he will see a Marshon Lattimore shadow. When Diggs was with Minnesota, he often had Adam Thielen draw away some attention. In this contest, he needs to rely on the slightly less talented duo of Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders. Diggs does not get a salary reduction based on the matchup, making him virtually unusable if you want to suit up three starting RBs.
Value Play:
Cedrick Wilson, Cowboys vs. LV ($3,500 DK, $5,600 FD)
Wilson was already seeing an uptick in usage with Amari Cooper out. Now, he will likely be starting opposite Gallup. As I mentioned above, Vegas has slid in their coverage recently. At this price, it should be easy for Wilson to return 3x.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | $6,400 | $7,300 |
| Dalton Schultz | $5,300 | $6,000 |
| T.J. Hockenson | $5,200 | $6,100 |
| Dawson Knox | $4,400 | $5,900 |
| Cole Kmet | $3,700 | $5,000 |
| Foster Moreau | $2,900 | $4,700 |
| Jimmy Graham | $2,800 | $4,400 |
| Juwan Johnson | $2,600 | $4,500 |
| Nick Vannett | $2,500 | $4,200 |
Weekly strategy – If you are not using Stefon Diggs at WR1, you can afford Darren Waller at TE. Otherwise, you are likely pivoting to Dalton Schultz, Dawson Knox, or maybe T.J. Hockenson. The only punt play worth considering is Cole Kmet.
Pay to Play:
Darren Waller, Raiders @ DAL ($6,400 DK, $7,300 FD)
Waller finally returned to the century mark in receiving yards last week, but he ceded a score to Foster Moreau. This week, Waller faces a Dallas defense that has performed better against the position in recent weeks, but that remains middle-of-the-road on the season, and that has struggled against most of the upper-echelon TEs.
Stay Away:
T.J. Hockenson, Lions vs. CHI ($5,200 DK, $6,100 FD)
Hockenson has played decent this year, but nowhere near where he was projected to based on the draft stock expended on him. This isn’t a great matchup for the position, and he has a bunch of stiffs throwing him the ball. If you need to start him, it better be with Jared Goff under center in some sort of “burn-your-money” stack.
Value Play:
Cole Kmet, Bears @ DET ($3,700 DK, $5,000 FD)
We will continue to pick on the Lions here. Prior to last week, Kmet was on an upward trajectory. Then Jimmy Graham had to go out and suck up all of Kmet’s value. On the season, Kmet trails only Darnell Mooney and Allen Robinson among the Bears’ skill position players.
