Looking ahead to the Bills’ upcoming 2021 free agents

Who is a 2021 free agent for the Buffalo Bills?

The Bills have, at least, six games remaining in the 2020 NFL season after their bye week. Most expect the year will extend longer than that. Exactly how long remains to be seen.

But after that slate, however far it extends, some guys could be playing their final games of their career with the Bills. It is what it is… there’s the business side to things, right? Contracts come to an end and people move on each year.

So let’s take a look at which Bills players fall into this category. Here’s the full list of upcoming 2021 free agents for the Bills via Spotrac:

PFF’s Top-7 graded players on the Bills offense at bye

Pro Football Focus’ top-seven players on the Buffalo Bills’ offense at the bye week.

The Buffalo Bills have the next couple of days off as their 2020 bye week has emerged in Week 11.

Buffalo enters it with a 7-3 record and despite recent disappointments, the team has surprised many, both locally and nationally. Perhaps the most notable for some in terms of the latter is Pro Football Focus.

The football analytics outlet has long been a lightning rod of attention for Bills fans, or at least in terms of quarterback Josh Allen it has. But thanks to the Bills’ strong play this season, even PFF had to acknowledge in their grades that Buffalo has got something good going on through 10 games.

But since the Bills don’t have an upcoming opponent to look forward to on Sunday, let’s take a look at their top-seven player grades so far this season via PFF, starting with the offense:

Trying to make sense of Bills’ reasoning for Mitch Morse not playing

Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott explains why C Mitch Morse did not play in Week 10 vs. Arizona Cardinals.

The Bills were without Mitch Morse in Week 10 against the Arizona Cardinals. Buffalo’s starting center was at the game, but he didn’t play.

Sounds a lot like he was benched.

But wait, what? Was he? No he wasn’t, per Bills head coach Sean McDermott on Monday. The bench boss gave some of the most eye-raise responses of his entire tenure with the Bills on this one.

First, McDermott confirmed Morse is currently healthy after suffering a concussion in Week 8 against the Patriots. But classified him not playing as a “coach’s decision.” Here’s McDermott’s first full response to why Morse was dressed and on the team’s active roster against the Cardinals, but did not play:

“He was healthy, coach’s decision right there. Mitch is a good player. Just felt like that week, being last week, we felt like we had some momentum with the group we had in when Mitch went down and we wanted to take one more look at it.”

Later in his weekly video conference call, McDermott was short. Also kind of confusing as well.

“No he was not benched,” McDermott said, before adding: “That lineup will be determined every week” when responding to whether or not Morse is his starting center moving forward.

Finally, McDermott fully classified the choice to not play Morse was “strictly a football decision.” Morse’s health did not factor into the situation, nor did any off-field actions like missing a practice session or being late to a meeting.

The whole thing was a pretty interesting set of exchanges for the head coach. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll also echoed the explanation on the decision.

“[The starting O-line vs. the Cards] played a couple games together and that’s the direction we decided to go with last game. That doesn’t mean anything for next week or the week after that. Just had some continuity going with those guys, they’ve done a good job in there together, and we’ll see where we go with that,” Daboll said.

The five the Bills let take every snap along the offensive line against the Cardinals, from left to right, was Dion Dawkins, Ike Boettger, Jon Feliciano, Brian Winters and Daryl Williams.

Along with Morse not playing, Cody Ford, who’s dealing with an ankle injury himself, did not play, either. McDermott said he doesn’t know for sure when Ford will be back at this point, but the Bills are heading into their bye week, anyway. Perhaps because of that, the coaching staff did not want to be pressed into calling one guy their starter or not. They have two weeks to make that decision, but at least for one game, Morse wasn’t.

Now, for the numbers. Or the only ones we’ve got, which come via the folks at Pro Football Focus. Subjective numbers, yes, but some context.

Morse originally went down against the Patriots in Week 8 and both McDermott and Daboll referenced that game in their responses. What they could’ve liked from that outing was Boettger.

In that contest, PFF graded him the Bills’ top player on offense, a 94.1 overall mark. His performance went hand-in-hand with the best run game effort the Bills got all season, in due part to the offensive line’s efforts. The Bills had 190 rushing yards in Week 8.

Against the Seahawks last week, perhaps the Bills thought the game just… didn’t go the way of a rushing style of attack. Against a Russell Wilson-led team, the Bills probably knew it’d be a shootout vs. the Seahawks, and they guessed right considering it was a 44-34 final score.

So over that time period, Morse gets healthy, and maybe the Bills don’t want to say he was benched, but losing your job due to injury is one way guys benched all the time.

We wish Morse the best in terms of health, but we’re trying to break down a coaching decision here.

Via the eye test against the Cardinals, the Bills offensive line… wasn’t great. They never really are better than an average unit, but despite not being sacked, quarterback Josh Allen was certainly on the run a bit more in Week 10. The run game, as usual, was just never established.

Using PFF’s guidance, the position that provided the most let down? Feliciano at center, Morse’s spot.

Feliciano’s PFF mark had a huge overall drop from Weeks 9 to 10, 68.4 to 61.8, respectively. By comparison, Boettger and Winters saw their numbers move up slightly, just a point or two.

So where could the Bills go from here? We’ve got a bye week so we don’t know. But perhaps the Bills might look to keep Botteger at left guard with Morse at center and Feliciano at right guard. The best way to explain way this is to just to lay out exactly how the interior offensive line’s numbers current stand heading into the bye week via PFF’s grading system, player-by-player:

  • Ike Boettger: 72.0
  • Mitch Morse: 65.6
  • Jon Feliciano: 61.8
  • Brian Winters: 58.2 
  • Cody Ford: 53.8

Again, we can take PFF with a grain of salt. Maybe even a massive one. But another thing worth noting is that the Bills have tried to stick Ford into the lineup as much as possible when he’s healthy this season, despite any poor play or grades from the analytics folks.

Because of that, it might be a better guess that Ford, the former second-round pick the Bills traded up for, gets out there over Boettger, a former undrafted rookie free agent.

Regardless of all that, some verbal tip-toeing for sure from McDermott which should turn some heads.

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Bills snap counts: Depth chart breakdown vs. Patriots

Buffalo Bills snap counts vs. the New England Patriots in Week 8.

The Buffalo Bills secured a winning record in the AFC East this season by topping the New England Patriots in Week 8, 24-21, at Bills Stadium.

The victory gave the Bills a 6-2 record overall and a 4-0 one against the division and we’re only halfway through the 2020 season. And of course, it’s beating the Patriots, which always holds a little extra weight.

So which players had the biggest impact on the win? Here’s a full depth chart breakdown of the snap counts for the Bills against the Patriots:

Potential replacements, takeaways from Jon Feliciano injury

Who could replace Buffalo Bills offensive lineman Jon Feliciano?

Buffalo Bills offensive lineman Jon Feliciano will miss a chunk of the upcoming 2020 season. The team’s starting right guard from 2019 suffered a pectoral injury which could require up to three months or more to heal.

Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane have continuously harped on the importance of continuity on their roster. After re-signing Quinton Spain earlier this offseason, the Bills were slated to return all five of their starters on the O-line in 2020.

With Feliciano’s injury, that will no longer be the case for Buffalo, and there will be a ripple-effect for the Bills because of it.

With that, here are six takeaways from Feliciano’s injury:

Bills offensive guard Jon Feliciano. (AP Photo/Rick Osentoski)

How big of a loss?

We know Feliciano is a loss for the Bills, but let’s try to put into context exactly how big of a loss he is. As mentioned, he was a starter for the Bills in his first season with the team in 2019. At right guard, Feliciano was the No. 1 in every game for Buffalo, playing in about 89 percent of snaps.

Already stated was that continuity the Bills had along the offensive line. From last season, things were not going to change in terms of starters along the O-line, most likely, until now. From left to right, the Bills’ line was going to look, once again, like: Dion Dawkins, Spain, Mitch Morse, Feliciano and Cody Ford.

And speaking of Spain, many touted his addition Buffalo’s line a year ago. Just to put things into picture of how big of a loss Feliciano might be, he was actually… better than Spain, in at least one sense. Pro Football Focus is subjective, but per their numbers, Feliciano was the better 2019 lineman. At the end of last season, Spain ranked as their 58th best guard in the NFL while Feliciano was at No. 35 via PFF’s grade.

Which Bills players are unlikely to survive pre-training camp cuts?

Buffalo Bills pre-training camp cut candidates in 2020.

A series of big blows were dealt to bubble players and some fresh faces in the Buffalo Bills locker room this week.

First, the NFL and NFLPA jointly decided to cancel the 2020 preseason. While many hope in the future there are less preseason games, at least one or two could go a long way for such players to prove to a coaching staff they are worthy of a roster or practice squad spot.

Then things got even worse. Typically a team carries 90 players into training camp. In an effort to promote social distancing, teams will now carry only 80 when training camp gets started next week.

Most camps in the league are slated to begin next Tuesday, and just about every roster has more than 80 players on it currently. Among that faction is the Bills, who have 88. Buffalo general manager Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott have some roster trimming to do.

So with that, which eight Bills players are most likely to be cut ahead of camp? Here’s our best 10 guesses at those spots:

Bills CB Ike Brown (Getty Images)

CB Ike Brown

You’ll notice a trend we’ll point out right away here with Ike Brown: This 80-man roster news is bad for undrafted rookie free agents. That’s what Brown was out of FIU. Brown has some desirable size at 6-foot tall, but he’s in a crowded cornerback room with EJ Gaines, Levi Wallace and Josh Norman already battling for a No. 2 job next to Tre’Davious White.