We could talk all day, all year, and all century about how the Big 12’s expansion changes the conference’s College Football Playoff chances, revenue distribution, and place within the national pecking order. But let’s try something else for a few minutes.
Let’s talk about how the Big 12’s impending additions of BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF might change things for you, the sports fan.
In just about every way, Oklahoma’s Big 12 has been the most lopsided power conference, though Ohio State’s Big Ten is joining the mix. Since 2000, Oklahoma has won 13 Big 12 football titles, plus a share of 2012’s. The Sooners have won six in a row and are favored to make it seven. Each year, the Big 12 race is everything people think the SEC race is — schools like Auburn, Florida, Georgia and LSU can approach Alabama’s talent level, if not its consistent excellence.
In that regard, the Sooners and Horns will fit the SEC. Over the last 10 years, they’ve been two of the country’s top 10 recruiters, according to the 247Sports Composite. The next Big 12 team is TCU, way down at No. 32.
Compare that to the SEC, where Alabama has the country’s No. 1 class almost every year, but with a half-dozen SEC rivals pretty close behind. Even SEC lightweights like Kentucky tend to outrecruit Big 12 contenders like Oklahoma State.
The SEC will become even more watchable. Will the Big 12 become less watchable? I don’t think so. There’s no replacing Oklahoma and Texas, unless you convince Ohio State and Michigan to move to San Antonio or something. But instead of replacing, let’s think about recalibrating.
Big 12 fans are, by and large, happy to see Oklahoma leaving, now that it seems the conference will limp through the aftermath. Makes sense! The Sooners hogged the spotlight and almost all the wins. (Texas pulled an even better trick, hogging spotlight despite only a few wins.)
The conference’s financial stakeholders, however, can’t rejoice about the bully Sooners and their rich friend leaving town. Texas is annually college sports’ biggest brand, with OU also near the top. The Longhorns have complained for a half-century about sharing revenue with small schools like Baylor. And suddenly, for the Big 12’s remaining members, those wells are drying up.
Well, I’m a college sports fan, not a person with stock in the Big 12, so I don’t care about that. Oh no, without the Sooner-Longhorn bailout fund, how will Kansas afford to hire another new head coach every three years forever? Not my problem.
I also hold no investments in the Big 12’s postseason attendance. The conference adding a bunch of TCU-like scrappers doesn’t supercharge its odds of winning a playoff, but since even the Sooners have finished no better than No. 3 in the last 20 final AP polls, those odds weren’t excellent to begin with.
What the Big 12 does gain by adding four of the best available football programs is this: one of the most competitive power-conference races every year. (This also improves the Big 12’s situation in a sport known as basketball, I’m told.)
For most of the last decade, you’ve changed the channel to Big 12 football for two reasons: someone is scoring too many points, and/or Oklahoma is suddenly struggling against a lesser team. Now imagine tuning into Big 12 football ahead of time! On purpose! Because, to quote the conference’s own half-hearted branding, every game matters!
Here, have some numbers that demonstrate how much more competitive — and thus interesting from week to week — the Big 12 will become. I’ve used Sports-Reference’s SRS rating, a team quality metric that attempts to predict by how many points each team would defeat an FBS-average opponent. My sample is the last 15 seasons, which includes multiple coaching changes for almost every school, giving a decent baseline without overly weighting the non-power histories of the newer schools.
| Team |
Median SRS rating, 2006-2020
|
| Oklahoma |
15.87 |
| Texas |
11.15 |
| Oklahoma State |
10.46 |
| TCU |
9.27 |
| West Virginia |
7.59 |
| BYU |
6.5 |
| Cincinnati |
6.03 |
| UCF |
5.79 |
| Kansas State |
4.11 |
| Texas Tech |
3.06 |
| Baylor |
3.01 |
| Houston |
2.21 |
| Iowa State |
-0.96 |
| Kansas |
-6.7 |
Not only does this show the new folks can be competitive on day one (something Texas has already learned four times against BYU and Oklahoma against 2016 Houston), this doesn’t account for the recruiting gains each could enjoy from membership in a somewhat prominent conference, similar to TCU and Utah sneaking up the rankings after joining powers. (Let’s emphasize could. History shows this isn’t automatic.)
Before, the Big 12’s two games to be aware of each week were likely to be Whoever vs. Oklahoma (-13) and some combo of those middling teams. Going forward, at least one of the four newbies should be quite good each year, but probably not blasting-everybody-off-the-field good. The Big 12 is trading championship potential for an enjoyable regular season. The Big 12 did not ask to initiate this trade, but might be walking away with a better product for you, the viewer at home who probably has no stake in the Big 12’s financial success.
Also, compare who’s won real-life Big 12 titles with who could’ve won the new 12-team version, based strictly on SRS rating from each season (and assuming a conference title game won by the higher-rated team).
| Year |
IRL champ |
Realigned champ, based on SRS
|
| 2020 |
Oklahoma |
BYU/Cincinnati (basically tied)
|
| 2019 |
Oklahoma |
Baylor |
| 2018 |
Oklahoma |
UCF |
| 2017 |
Oklahoma |
UCF |
| 2016 |
Oklahoma |
Oklahoma State |
| 2015 |
Oklahoma |
Baylor |
| 2014 |
Baylor/TCU |
TCU |
| 2013 |
Baylor |
Baylor/Oklahoma State (basically tied)
|
| 2012 |
Kansas State/Oklahoma |
Kansas State |
| 2011 |
Oklahoma State |
Oklahoma State |
| 2010 |
Oklahoma |
TCU |
| 2009 |
Texas |
TCU |
| 2008 |
Oklahoma |
Texas Tech |
| 2007 |
Oklahoma |
West Virginia |
| 2006 |
Oklahoma |
West Virginia |
Look how many more fans get to be invested in Big 12 races! Hooray! And this doesn’t show everything, such as Houston making a run in 2015 or Kansas-West Virginia becoming possibly 2007’s biggest game lmao.
“But the playoff,” you might say. “Obsess over the playoff. Nothing matters more than the playoff!” Well, if that’s the case, note many of these Realigned Big 12 champions could’ve contended for four-team spots, even without wins over Oklahoma or Texas. 2007 West Virginia, 2010 TCU, 2011 Oklahoma State, 2014 TCU and 2017 UCF could’ve really threatened for titles.
Going forward, the Big 12 will only sometimes get to play in the main event. That’s ok. Just as the SEC becomes more entertaining by welcoming a team that’s proved it can hang (while also adding Texas), the Big 12 becomes more entertaining by embracing its place on the midcard, not that it had a choice. Better to be on the midcard than not on the card at all!
Barring really wild stuff, a national title is a semi-realistic goal for the SEC’s upper half (now including Oklahoma and Oklahoma’s associate), three Big Ten teams, a couple ACC teams, and maybe a couple others.
The goal for basically every team in the Pac-12 and Big 12 is this: Be thought about, preferably in decent ways. Be present, part of the national conversation. Make yourselves as happy as you can, and share that happiness with as many people as possible.
The Big 12’s new brand can be something like The Pac-12 Most People Are Awake During. And is that really such a bad lot?
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