Duke’s methodical offense and ability to handle Houston’s air-tight ball-trapping defense defense is a major key to winning this game.
The time continues to dwindle as we get closer and closer to Duke tipping off in Dallas to take on the Houston Cougars for the right to move on to the Elite Eight.
Duke’s journey this year has been up and down, but after an unfortunate blip of back-to-back losses right before the NCAA Tournament started, the momentum did not seem to favor the Blue Devils.
Yet, here we are after Duke dominated the tournament’s first two games and cruised to Dallas. Things won’t be nearly as easy on Friday night against Houston. The Cougars are tough, physical, and tested. Two-way guard Jamal Shead, Houston’s star player, will be playing in his 15th NCAA Tournament game on Friday evening. Kelvin Sampson has had a terrific tenure coaching this program, and he brings years of NCAA Tournament experience.
Duke will have its hands full. However, Houston can be beat. With that said, here are three keys to a Duke win.
Quick decisions are essential.
Houston runs a highly effective defense predicated on trapping the ball in the pick-and-roll. It blitzes ball-handlers and forces them to make lightning-quick decisions and passes that many teams at the college level can’t make or are too slow to make, thus leading to turnovers and rushed offensive sets.
When you look at the Cougars’ defense, they are No. 2 in effective field goal percentage (44%), block rate (16.1%), and steal rate (15.5%). They are also within the top five in turnover percentage (24.7%) and 2-point defense (43.4 %) and they hold teams under 30 percent from three.
In other words, they are stout defensively. However, opponents have a shot if they can swing the ball and break the trap down off the dribble. Jeremy Roach has dominated the ball in the tournament thus far, sliding into a more conventional PG role like he did in the last few NCAA Tournaments. He must be decisive, make the right reads, and get the ball out so Duke can swing it, attack open gaps, or use numbers to their advantage when applicable.
If the ball sticks, Duke will be in trouble, generating offense. Luckily, Duke has found its rhythm in sharing the ball in the tournament. 22 assists on 33 made field goals against James Madison in the second round certainly helps. They may not make nearly as many baskets, but a similar ratio would likely mean they’ve been able to break down Houston’s defense.
Shoot, shoot, shoot
There are going to be plenty of 3-point opportunities available come Friday night. Duke needs to be ready to hit them. They shot the cover off the ball against JMU in their last game. Jared McCain had eight threes. It’s unlikely Houston will allow the number of open looks that JMU did, but for the ones they do, Duke has to cash in on them.
Per Synergy Sports, Houston is in the 98th percentile in spot-up points allowed per possession at an incredibly high rate (27% of defensive possessions.) In other words, McCain and Tyrese Proctor have to have good days like they did Sunday shooting the ball. The issue is that Houston plays such a hellacious defense that they will contest everything. Duke needs an inspired shooting performance like they had in the second round, or at least 40% in comparison to the 50% they were at against the Dukes.
Toughness wins
You would be hard-pressed to find a tougher team than the Houston Cougars. They play hard physically; if you are mentally and physically unprepared, things can spiral quickly. Duke’s knock this year is that they are soft. That has been the narrative all season long. Both games against UNC showcased that, as did their early loss to Arkansas.
Duke will be run out of the gym if it is not mentally and physically ready to battle this Houston team. In the aftermath of the JMU game, players and coaches talked about how the message preached was to throw the first punch. Come out and attack them. Set the tone on both court ends and let them know you’re here. That same message applies here.
Houston may not be nearly as dynamic offensively as the Tar Heels, but they are even better defensively, and both games against North Carolina did no favors for Duke. Duke is 18th in effective field-goal percentage. They can score with the best of them, but this is different. Duke hasn’t beaten a higher-ranked seed in 30 years. To win this game, they must showcase what they have been missing all year.
