Would a hard cap work in the NBA?

According to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, the NBA is pursuing an “upper spending limit”, or a hard cap. Unsurprisingly, it has already been met with significant resistance by the NBPA. It’s understandable why owners would want this. As Marc Stein …

According to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, the NBA is pursuing an “upper spending limit”, or a hard cap. Unsurprisingly, it has already been met with significant resistance by the NBPA.

It’s understandable why owners would want this. As Marc Stein points out in his report on the subject, a hard cap would limit the exorbitant spending big market teams like the Warriors make. However, putting a cap on total player salaries would limit the amounts certain players can make while also falling short of significantly adding more parity to the league.

Below we analyze the current luxury tax system and how a hard cap could fall short.

What James Harden re-signing with Sixers means

The Philadelphia 76ers and James Harden have finally agreed on a deal for the 13-year veteran to return. He will re-sign with the Sixers on a two-year deal worth $68.6 million with a player option for year two, according to Adrian Wojnarowski. This …

The Philadelphia 76ers and James Harden have finally agreed on a deal for the 13-year veteran to return. He will re-sign with the Sixers on a two-year deal worth $68.6 million with a player option for year two, according to Adrian Wojnarowski. This move could serve as a temporary financial sacrifice from Harden that allows the Sixers to make moves that improve their title odds.

What James Harden re-signing with Sixers means

The Philadelphia 76ers and James Harden have finally agreed on a deal for the 13-year veteran to return. He will re-sign with the Sixers on a two-year deal worth $68.6 million with a player option for year two, according to Adrian Wojnarowski. This move could serve as a temporary financial sacrifice from Harden that allows the Sixers to make moves that improve their title odds.

Free agency’s first hours: Live-reaction blog with Yossi Gozlan

Salary cap expert Yossi Gozlan reacts to all the moves at the start of free agency and makes sense of all the moves from a cap perspective.

HoopsHype’s salary cap expert Yossi Gozlan is providing updates and reactions on each major event at the start of free agency.

 

Warriors could face up to $77.5 million luxury tax with new salary cap projections

With new NBA salary cap projections released, the Golden State Warriors could face a heightened luxury tax.

The NBA salary cap projections could have stifling consequences on the Golden State Warriors.

The league released projections for salary cap and luxury tax for the 2020-21 season to teams Thursday, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski and Bobby Marks.

With a lower salary cap and luxury tax than expected, the Warriors could be on the hook for a tax payment as high as $77.5 million, about $12 million more than what was expected.

The salary cap is expected to be $115 million, according to Wojnarowski. That would be an increase from the 2019-20 season, but not as much as the previously-predicted $116 million.

The luxury tax is projected to be $139 million, Wojnarowski reported.

As the roster currently stands, the Warriors’ 2020-21 payroll will be $147.87 million, according to Basketball Reference.

Four players on the Warriors roster are set to receive more than $20 million: Draymond Green’s extension will start at $22 million, D’Angelo Russell will be paid more than $28 million, Klay Thompson $35 million and Stephen Curry $40 million.

The Warriors will also likely add a high first-round draft pick to the sheet. A top-five pick would result in a cap hit ranging from $6.8 million to $10.73 million.

Golden State has a $5.9 million exception to use on a free agent, according to Wojnarowski and Marks.

If the Warriors use the entire taxpayer mid-level exception, their luxury tax bill could range from $77.5M if they get the No. 1 pick to as low as $61M if they get the No. 5 pick.

The easiest way to get under the luxury tax would be to trade Russell. A highly-coveted free agent this past offseason, he will have three years left for about $30 million per year after this season.

Moving his contract would put Golden State right near the luxury line, depending on other roster changes, and allow them to move manageable contracts to clear the rest of the way if needed.

But the Warriors have not been shy about exceeding the luxury tax in recent years. If the front office feels the team can still compete for a title when Curry and Thompson return from injury, it may pay the price again.

USA TODAY Sports Media Group salary cap expert Yossi Gozlan contributed research to this report.

How the Warriors can convert Damion Lee and Ky Bowman today

Starting today (December 30th), the Warriors can trade Burks for salary relief and be able to convert both Lee and Bowman within the apron.

Two-way players Damion Lee and Ky Bowman have been pleasant surprises for the Warriors this season and arguably deserve roster spots.

In December, Lee is averaging 14.9 points and 7.1 rebounds per game off 45% shooting and 89% from the free-throw line, according to Basketball-Reference. He has started in the last 7 games in which the Warriors have gone 4-3, including a 4 game winning streak.

Bowman has consistently been in the Warriors rotation averaging 22.8 minutes per game. He’s been heavily relied on earlier in the season while the Warriors were strung with injuries. He’s averaging 12.6 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per-36 minutes, according to Basketball-Reference.

Both players are on two-way contracts, meaning they can only spend up to 45 days with the Warriors. Once they run out their days-of-service (DOS) clock, they must be converted to regular NBA contracts that would have them count against the Warriors salary cap if they are to continue with the team. Otherwise, they must return to the Santa Cruz Warriors, but can still be converted later.

There is no publicly available resource available to track the DOS of two-way players. According to Bobby Marks, Lee has spent 12 of his 45 DOS with the Warriors as of December 6. While one could mathematically conclude that Lee is at his 36th DOS as of December 30th, there is a good chance that isn’t the correct number. It is tough to estimate how many DOS Bowman has left, but he could have less since he has played more games for the Warriors than Lee has this season.

Warriors current salary cap sheet.
Warriors current salary cap sheet.

The Warriors cannot convert either player with the way the Warriors roster currently stands because are hard-capped. They subjected themselves to the hard cap after they sign-and-traded for D’Angelo Russell. They are currently just $374,925 below the hard cap, or apron.

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If Lee is signed today, December 30th, his cap hit would be $988,819. That figure declines by $9,155.73 daily. Bowman’s cap hit today would be $548,121, but an additional $440,698 would count against him towards the Warriors luxury tax total. His potential cap hit prorates by $5,075,20 daily. The individual cap hit of either player today exceeds the Warriors’ $374,925 hard cap cushion, making either conversion illegal at the moment.

What can the Warriors do?

The easiest thing for the Warriors to do is trade a minimum-salaried role player such as Alec Burks, Glenn Robinson III, and Marquese Chriss, all of whom have a $1.6 million cap hit. Burks’ name has been floated around the most, and according to Monte Poole of NBC Sports Bay Area, league sources say the Warriors are willing to part with him. His $1.6 million cap hit is very moveable and he should have many suitors based on his high-level of play this season.

Warriors potential cap sheet if they trade Burks, then sign both Lee and Bowman to their respective pro-rated minimum salaries today.
Warriors potential cap sheet if they trade Burks, then sign both Lee and Bowman to their respective pro-rated minimum salaries on December 30th, 2019.

Starting today (December 30th), the Warriors can trade Burks for salary relief and be able to convert both Lee and Bowman within the apron. If they were to execute such a trade and sign both players today, they would be just $17,851 below the hard cap for the rest of the season. They can increase their cushion by making another trade or waiving Marquese Chriss whose contract is non-guaranteed.

The Warriors have $1,743,897 remaining of their taxpayer mid-level exception. They can sign both Lee and Bowman using the exception in order to give them contracts that run for at least three seasons.

The Warriors could be a little more patient and run Lee and Bowman’s two-way clocks to its expiration. While they can fit both today, the Warriors already have such limited flexibility and $17,851 won’t allow them to do anything going forward. It is still best to try to let both players’ potential cap hits continue to prorate so they can have as much space below the apron as possible. It is also best to not rush a trade for Burks so they can try to get the most value for him in a trade.