The crew over at Football Outsiders has put together their annual draft guide for ESPN. In this latest edition, they examine all 32 teams and distill the current class of prospects down to arrive at each team’s biggest need, along with someone who might fit that bill. They also identify a “quiet need” for each squad and take a look at a position that each club shouldn’t waste their time (or a pick) on.
The Worldwide Leader has the compete guide posted for their ESPN+ subscribers; the Cowboys’ portion of it is right here. The Football Outsiders are on board with what most fans likely see as the team’s most glaring deficiency, and they are aligned with many when it comes to a secondary priority. But one position that’s gotten some buzz during the team’s virtual interviews is “not a need” at all, according to the guide.
Biggest need: Safety
“The Cowboys have used free agency to fill the bulk of their glaring holes, signing Gerald McCoy and Dontari Poe at defensive tackle, Anthony Brown at cornerback, and HaHa Clinton-Dix at safety. They should use the draft to fill the holes their roster will likely have in 2021, 2022, and 2023, when their bigger recent contracts for players such as Amari Cooper and (eventually) Dak Prescott will make it difficult to do so in free agency. Safety should be a big priority, with both Clinton-Dix (signed to a one-year deal) and fellow starter Xavier Woods hitting free agency in 2021.”
Football Outsiders names Alabama’s Xavier McKinney as a prospect who would fill in that blank nicely for the Cowboys. The junior, who is skipping his senior year in Tuscaloosa after a 2019 season that earned him first-team All-SEC honors, will almost certainly be a first-round draft pick, and could well be available to Dallas with the 17th overall selection.
Quiet need: Pass rush
“DeMarcus Lawrence is one of just 13 players with 30 or more sacks the past three seasons, and his total of 50 pass pressures last season, according to Sports Info Solutions, shows that he is not slowing down, despite his diminished total of five sacks in 2019. But Lawrence’s individual success hasn’t elevated the Cowboys’ defense to pass-rushing excellence. They’ve finished 14th or worse in adjusted sack rate each of the past three years, and they lost both Robert Quinn (37 pass pressures) and Michael Bennett (24) in free agency. Aldon Smith could help if he rediscovers his early-decade form, but the team should still look to add pieces in the draft.”
According to the guide, Notre Dame’s Julian Okwara may be a name to watch here. Okwara may not be readily familiar to the casual fan, but his collegiate pedigree means he’s almost certainly on the radar of head coach Mike McCarthy, who has shown to have a proclivity for picking Golden Domers in the draft. He’s no sleeper, though; Pro Football Focus lists Okwara as the 28th-best prospect in this year’s draft crop.
Not a need: Linebacker
“Linebackers Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch can be overlooked on a team full of stars, but they both have Pro Bowl resumes, despite being 24 years old. Smith allowed an excellent 14.1% broken tackle rate in 2019, and Vander Esch allowed a minuscule 6.6% broken tackle rate in his healthier 2018, the second-lowest rate among full-time players at the position (Bobby Wagner, 5.4%). Veteran Sean Lee backs them up and plays when the Cowboys need a third linebacker.”
Dallas has spent time virtually with Oklahoma’s Kenneth Murray and Wisconsin’s Zack Baun, leading many to wonder if the Cowboys might stock their shelves at the position out of concern over their current corps. Smith overcame a horrific injury coming out of college, Vander Esch missed much of the 2019 campaign with a worrisome neck malady, and Lee has a long history on the injury report.
Of the players the Cowboys are known to have interviewed, defensive ends top the list with 10 prospects. For what it’s worth, the team has met (either virtually or in-person) with nine cornerbacks, eight defensive tackles, seven wide receivers, and six safeties (plus fewer players at every other position). Whether those meetings were indicative of genuine interest, mere due diligence, or possible smokescreening tactics remains to be seen and may never be truly known.
The 2020 NFL Draft kicks off Thursday night.
