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The San Francisco Giants (0-1) and San Diego Padres (2-1) play the 2nd game of a 4-game set Friday at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 1-0
San Francisco dropped Thursday’s series opener 6-4. With the setback, the Giants are now 2-5 across their last 7 season openers. Dating back to last September, San Francisco is 1-6 in their last 7 games against San Diego.
San Diego plated 4 runs in the bottom of the 7th inning, pulling off a comeback from a 3-2 deficit in Thursday’s contest. The Padres went 4 of 12 with runners in scoring position.
Giants at Padres projected starters
LHP Kyle Harrison vs. RHP Joe Musgrove
Harrison (1-1, 4.15 ERA in 2023) makes his 1st start this season and 8th of his career. He had a 1.15 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 34 2/3 innings last season.
- 2023 with Sacramento (AAA): 1-3, 4.66 ERA (65 2/3 IP, 34 ER), 48 BB in 20 starts
- 2023 road stats: 0-1, 6.28 ERA (14 1/3 IP, 10 ER) in 3 starts
- Career vs. Padres: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 1 start, a 6-1 road loss Sept. 2, 2023
Musgrove (0-0, 16.88 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He allowed 5 ER on 7 H and 2 BB with 2 K in 2 2/3 IP in his debut vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers in Seoul, South Korea March 21.
- Missed last 3 months of 2023 with a shoulder injury
- Per ESPN, has held current Giants batters to a collective .627 OPS
- 2023 stats: 10-3, 3.05 ERA (97 1/3 IP, 33 ER) in 17 starts
- 2023 home stats: 6-1, 3.04 ERA (56 1/3 IP, 19 ER) in 10 starts
- 2023 vs. Giants: No-decision, 3 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 1 start, a 16-11 home win April 29
- Career vs. Giants: 4-3, 3.86 ERA (74 2/3 IP, 32 ER) in 13 starts
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Giants at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:50 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Giants +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Padres -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Giants +1.5 (-165) | Padres -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Giants at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 5, Giants 4
Moneyline
The San Diego weather report calls for an outward breeze, and Harrison figures as a fly-ball pitcher. There are questions on both sides of this mound match-up, but Musgrove figures as the more projectable and dependable hurler.
The Friars (-150) do have a left-leaning lineup and one that struggled against port-siders in 2023 (.683 OPS), but in his rookie-season small sample, Harrison did not exactly mow down lefty batters (1.068 OPS allowed).
Dating back to last August, San Diego is 11-4 across its last 15 games at Petco Park.
BET PADRES (-150).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS: Peg the ML as having the best leverage in this matchup.
Over/Under
The last 9 games of this series have seen the winning club score at least 5 runs. Peg the Padre bats as having some confidence after Thursday’s comeback. San Francisco had a robust .817 OPS in spring training, and batters on both sides get the likely benefit of a breeze blowing out.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the best value price here: BACK THE OVER 7.5 (-112).
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