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The San Diego Padres (81-63) welcome the San Francisco Giants (70-73) to Petco Park Sunday for the finale of their 3-game series. First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Giants lead 5-4
The Giants lost the series-opening game 5-1 Friday, but bounced back with a 6-3 win over the Padres Saturday.
San Francisco has struggled as of late and has dropped to 4th in the NL West. It is 4-8 over its last 12 games and 2-5 over its last 7. The Giants are 30-41 on the road and 67-76 against the spread (ATS).
The Padres have lost 2 of their last 3 games after a near sweept of the Detroit Tigers in the series prior. They are 2nd in the NL West and are 6-3 over their last 9 games. San Diego is 40-34 at home and 73-71 ATS.
Giants at Padres projected starters
RHP Spencer Bivens vs. RHP Joe Musgrove
Bivens (3-1, 2.86 ERA) makes his 2nd start and 20th appearance. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 34 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 10-4 home win over the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 30
- 2024 away stats: 1-1, 3.09 ERA (11 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 1.63 WHIP, 5.4 K/9 in 7 appearances
- Rookie has never faced Padres
Musgrove (5-4, 4.09 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 77 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 3-0 home win over the Detroit Tigers Monday
- 2024 home stats: 4-3, 3.60 ERA (55 IP, 22 ER), 1.04 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 in 10 starts
- Career vs. Giants: 4-4, 4.03 ERA (80 1/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 in 14 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Giants at Padres odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:24 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Giants +172 (bet $100 to win $172) | Padres -205 (bet $205 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Giants +1.5 (-118) | Padres -1.5 (-102)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Giants at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 5, Giants 4
Moneyline
PASS.
There’s no great value here. The Giants are too risky, especially given the Padres have an ace on the mound. San Diego is far too expensive to take here as well.
BET GIANTS +1.5 (-118).
The Giants are just 2-5 over their last 7 games, but 2 of those losses have come by 1 run and another 2 have come by 2 runs, so they’ve been able to keep games close. San Francisco is 36-34 ATS as a road team this season.
The Padres have a similar story. While they are 4-2 over their last 6 games, 2 of those wins have come by 1 run. They are among the bottom third in the majors in covering at home with just a 30-43 ATS record.
Considering those trends, take GIANTS +1.5 (-118).
Over/Under
BET OVER 8.5 (-105).
The Giants have gone Over in 4 of their last 6 games and are 72-65-6 O/U on the season. San Francisco has allowed at least 5 runs in 4 of its last 6 games.
The Padres have a similar season-long trend at 77-64-3 O/U. San Diego has gone 4-3-1 O/U in its last 8 games. With those trends in mind, back OVER 8.5 (-105).
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