In a crowded AFC that is only getting better, both with quarterbacks and rosters, the Baltimore Ravens may have missed their best opportunity at a Super Bowl.
Alright, calm down.
I’m sure many of you saw this headline, immediately looked for the byline to know who to get angry at, and then began cursing my name and shouting to your nearest co-worker, friend, or relative to come see this monstrosity before you.
For the last several seasons, the Baltimore Ravens have been hyped as one of the league’s best teams and amongst the favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, and every year they have fallen short. Now in Baltimore’s defense, every team in the AFC except the Patriots, Chiefs, and Bengals have come up short in making it out of the AFC. Nonetheless, though, the Ravens best shot up to get to the Super Bowl to this point was in 2023, and it may be the best shot they ever get.
While the focus, as it usually is with Baltimore, was on Lamar Jackson, it was the defense that carried the Ravens all season. Here’s how the Ravens finished in notable defensive categories:
- 1st in fewest points allowed
- 1st in takeaways
- 1st in sacks
- 1st in lowest passer rating allowed
- 2nd in fewest touchdown passes allowed
- 1st in fewest rushing touchdowns allowed
- 2nd in EPA per play
In their massive wins over the Seattle Seahawks, Detroit Lions, San Francisco 49ers, and Miami Dolphins, the Ravens allowed a total of 47 points. Less than 12 points per game to the two teams who competed in the NFC Championship Game and two other teams in the Dolphins and Seahawks who had top 10 offenses in terms of EPA per play. In those four games, Baltimore had 11 takeaways- nearly three takeaways per game.
The point being that the Ravens cant just depend on those defensive splash plays to roll over into next season and be the biggest reason they win games. Especially not after losing Patrick Queen and Geno Stone, both to division rivals, as Queen signed with the Steelers and Stone joined the Bengals.
Not to mention the fact that defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald is gone after becoming the head coach of the Seattle Seahawks. The defense will still be good, in all likelihood, but expecting them to repeat what they did last year with the mastermind of it all departed, as well as two key defenders- that would be very naïve to say the least. That was the best defense they are going to have for the foreseeable future, and they didn’t capitalize on it.
Now to the offense and Mr. Jackson. For as great a talent he is, he seems to fold when the lights are bright. Jackson and the Ravens are 0-4 in playoff games where their opponent scores more than 13 points. Jackson himself has a 2-4 record in the playoffs as it currently stands, and in his two biggest playoff games, he has shrunk.
The AFC Championship Game against the Chiefs was obviously the biggest game of his career, and we’ll get to that shortly, but the other playoff game I’m referencing came against the Bills during the 2020-21 season. Jackson went 14-of-24 for 162 yards and a pick-six taken 101 yards for a touchdown to all but seal the deal in a 17-3 loss against Buffalo.
The AFC Championship Game from just a few short months ago, though, was a masterpiece of mistakes by Jackson, and the Ravens as a whole. After winning another MVP (which I would have given to No. 17 in Buffalo, but that’s neither here nor there), Jackson went 20-of-37 with one touchdown and one interception, the latter of which came when the Ravens were at the Chiefs’ 25 yard-line and in position to make it a one-score game with less than seven minutes remaining in the game.
It felt like Baltimore went into that game with an agenda and something to prove. Despite being the NFL’s best ground attack, and going up against a Chiefs defense that was 28th in the league in EPA per rush, the Ravens only ran the ball 16 times. And for anyone who may say “Well, the Chiefs may have slowed down their run game so they leaned into the pass while trailing,” they were averaging over five yards per carry. And even though they were trailing most of the game, it was a 10-point deficit. It’s not as if that was an insurmountable lead to overcome. Their best drive of the second half came when they leaned into running the ball. With just over seven minutes left in the third quarter, Jackson had a run for 11 yards, as did Justice Hill. This came after a short swing to Gus Edwards for 16. A holding penalty halted their progress, though, and put them in 2nd and 15 where they felt like they had to throw, and that killed the drive. Jackson got sacked on 3rd and 9, and that felt like the beginning of the end in the second half.
The Ravens wanted to prove they didn’t need to run the ball to win. They wanted Jackson to outduel Mahomes to prove that he could, and it blew up in their face.
I understand the fascination with Jackson and the Ravens, but look at how stacked the conference is in terms of teams and quarterback talent. Teams like the Texans are getting better, and C.J. Stroud is a budding superstar. The Titans are going all in to build a really good roster. The Jaguars have a special quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. Justin Herbert now has Jim Harbaugh, and we’ll see how that goes. The Dolphins will be in the mix, The Jets may be fun with a healthy Aaron Rodgers.
In the Ravens’ own division, the Steelers are much better on paper, and Jackson is 1-3 against Pittsburgh in his career. The Browns were just a playoff team, and the Bengals will get Joe Burrow back and be right back in the thick of things. And, of course, there is Buffalo and Kansas City who always seem to be playing deep into January. For how great the quarterbacks and teams are in this conference, some of them won’t ever get over that hump. And for as talented as he may be, Jackson fell short in the best opportunity to get to the Super Bowl that he may ever have.
And in a crowded AFC, there is no guarantee he’ll get that chance again.
