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Isleta New Mexico Bowl: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction
Fresno State will look to end 2023 with a victory over New Mexico State. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.
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Can the ‘Dogs recapture a little magic in the Land of Enchantment?
ISLETA NEW MEXICO BOWL: New Mexico State Aggies (10-4, 7-1 Conference USA) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4, 4-4 Mountain West)
WHEN: Saturday, December 16 — 2:45 PM PT/3:45 PM MT
WHERE: University Stadium; Albuquerque, NM
WEATHER: Mostly sunny, high of 48 degrees
TV: ESPN
STREAMING: Fans can sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, which includes ESPN, by following this link.
RADIO: The New Mexico State broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Aggie Radio Network, including flagship 99.5 FM (KXPZ) in Las Cruces. The Fresno State broadcast can be found in and around the Central Valley on the affiliates of the Bulldog Sports network, including flagship 1340 AM (KCBL) in Fresno.
SERIES RECORD: Fresno State leads the all-time series, 18-1. In the last meeting on September 28, 2019, the Bulldogs defeated the Aggies, 30-17, in Las Cruces.
LAST GAME: New Mexico State lost to Liberty in the Conference USA football championship game, 49-35, while Fresno State lost to San Diego State on the road, 33-18.
WEBSITES: NMStateSports.com, the official New Mexico State athletics website | GoBulldogs.com, the official Fresno State athletics website
GAME NOTES (PDF): New Mexico State | Fresno State
ODDS: New Mexico State -3.5
SP+ PROJECTION: New Mexico State by 0.6
FEI PROJECTION: Fresno State by 1.0
PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: New Mexico State 51.27% win probability (28.80-27.39)
Mountain West football’s seven-game bowl slate kicks off in Albuquerque on Saturday afternoon, when the Fresno State Bulldogs will take on the New Mexico State Aggies.
The Aggies will be plenty motivated to send one of the program’s best teams ever into the off-season with one last win, and the chances are they’ll get to benefit from a friendly crowd in the stands since the game will take place just three-plus hours from Las Cruces. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, enter the game with far more uncertainty than they had a month ago, in the midst of a three-game losing streak that they’ll look to break without head coach Jeff Tedford, who is currently sidelined with health concerns.
Here’s how the Aggies and Bulldogs can find a path to victory to finish 2023.
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Three Keys to a New Mexico State Victory
1. Don’t lose the turnover battle.
Generally speaking, New Mexico State has done a pretty good job of taking care of the football when playing on offense. The Aggies have just 14 giveaways in 14 games, the fewest in Conference USA, but there’s little doubt that when they’ve been off their game, turnovers have played a big role since eight of those 14 giveaways came in NMSU’s four losses.
By contrast, Fresno State’s defense was one of the most active in the Mountain West at generating takeaways, collecting 22 in 12 games. However, the Bulldogs faltered on that front in their recent losing streak, coming up empty in two of their last three games, so the Aggies might have an advantage simply by avoiding killer mistakes one last time.
2. Get a big performance from the ground game.
NMSU has tended toward balance in their run-pass ratio throughout the season, but they may find it useful to resist Fresno State’s resistance to the run. While the Bulldogs are sixth in the Mountain West by allowing 4.35 yards per carry, they’ve struggled mightily since the calendar turned to November, coughing up 5.86 YPC and eight rushing touchdowns in the last four games.
This could be good news for the Aggies, who don’t have a heavy-lifting RB1 but do have three different players — quarterback Diego Pavia and running backs Star Thomas and Monte Watkins — who have recorded at least 50 rushing attempts and averaged at least 5.39 YPC. That trio has also accounted for a gain of at least ten yards on 20.9% of their combined carries, which is something they’ll almost certainly look to exploit.
3. Win on as many third downs as possible.
One area of the game where New Mexico State and Fresno State have been similarly productive is in moving the chains and keeping opponents from doing the same. The Bulldogs own a slight advantage on offense (46.55% for Fresno State, 43.95% for NMSU), but the Aggies could have an upper hand on defense (35.43% for NMSU, 39.88% for Fresno State).
This might be especially true if the Aggies can force Fresno State into passing downs more often than not. According to CollegeFootballData.com, NMSU allowed a 28% success rate when opponents faced a second down with seven-plus yards to go or a third or fourth down with five-plus yards to go, as well as a 54.8% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks.
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Three Keys to a Fresno State Victory
1. Get better pass protection from the offensive line.
One way or another, the Bulldogs are likely to lead with the pass when they attack the Aggies defense. Parker Fleming’s advanced statistics preview notes that Fresno State comes into the bowl game with a rush rate over expected percentage of -11.6%, which means that Pat McCann’s offense run the ball less frequently than all but five other FBS teams.
It isn’t a bad idea when you consider that New Mexico State’s pass rush is more the sum of its parts than one built on individual standouts: Five different Aggies have between three and 4.5 sacks this season. However, Fresno State’s offensive line has struggled badly down the stretch. According to Pro Football Focus, guard Osmar Velez and tackles Toreon Penright and Braylen Nelson each gave up multiple sacks between Weeks 10 and 13; the only other Mountain West offensive line to do that was Nevada.
2. Keep Jonathan Brady’s contributions to a minimum.
Four different Fresno State pass catchers have seen more than the 58 targets that Brady has received in 2023, but you could make a decent case that none of them have done as much as the sophomore from Las Vegas with their share. Brady hasn’t dropped a single pass, for starters, but his team-high 37 receptions and 613 receiving yards will be even more important in the bowl game with his primary running mate, Trent Hudson, gone through the transfer portal.
Whether he lines up opposite Carlton Johnson or Al’zillion Hamilton
more frequently remains to be seen, but it will be a big opportunity for both. Between Weeks 10 and 13, they combined to allow 15 catches and 12.3 yards per reception on 28 targets, so while Brady has averaged 16.6 YPC on the year, his more recent performances have been modest. If the secondary can keep him from stretching the field, it could make for a significant advantage.
3. Ride or die (one more time) with Mikey Keene.
Because it’s no secret the Bulldogs are pass-first, Keene’s presence as the presumably healthy QB1 will be a major factor in whether the offense can overcome its recent sputtering. There’s no doubt his health concerns played a role in the team’s ongoing losing streak, as his 60% completion rate in November was the lowest of any calendar month this year, as were the 5.9 yards he averaged per attempt and the 110.03 passer rating he mustered.
One potential obstacle is NMSU cornerback Andre Seldon, who is arguably the team’s top overall defender. The redshirt sophomore has allowed a catch rate of 42.6% on 61 targets, though he also spends the vast majority of his playing time outside of the numbers. It could mean that Erik Brooks and Jaelen Gill, both of whom have had at least 79% of their snaps out of the slot (per PFF), might be key to softening up the Aggies underneath.
Prediction
They say that time heals all wounds, which is something that Fresno State must hope is true since quarterback health is going to be crucial to their bounce-back efforts in this contest. However, that was less of an excuse for the defense’s recent woes, and that might be an even bigger X-factor. New Mexico State has as many weapons as the Bulldogs do, and there are just enough uncertainties to expect that this will be a close game no matter what, but home cooking and a balanced offensive attack will make a difference in the end for the Aggies to gut out a win.
New Mexico State 31, Fresno State 27
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