Tag: Fresno State Football

Mountain West Football: Week 10 Winners And Losers

Malik Sherrod, Gunner Gentry, and Boise State were among the weekend’s biggest winners and losers from across Mountain West football.

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Mountain West Football: Week 10 Winners And Losers

Who came out ahead and who left something to be desired across the Mountain West in Week 10 of the college football season?

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Encouragements and letdowns from the week that was.

With a fresh batch of rivalry games and a dash of desperation on the docket, Mountain West football’s first weekend of November action didn’t disappoint. Here are the winners and losers from Week 10.

Winners

1. Fresno State running back Malik Sherrod

The clash for the Milk Can was as advertised, but Sherrod’s contributions helped ensured the rivalry trophy would stay in Fresno following a 37-30 win against Boise State. He ran for a career-high 132 yards on 21 carries, though it was his 95-yard kickoff return for a touchdown that proved to be one of the Bulldogs’ biggest plays of the night. In all, Sherrod managed 255 all-purpose yards, the tenth-most in a single game in program history, and provided the Red Wave with memories they’ll talk about for a long time in the Central Valley.

2. UNLV wide receiver Ricky White

White has come alive over the past month and more than did his part on Saturday to help the Rebels keep pace in the conference title chase in a 56-14 victory over New Mexico. He had eight catches on nine targets for 165 yards and two touchdowns, the third time in four weeks he’s topped 150 receiving yards and scored multiple times.

3. Wyoming wide receiver Gunner Gentry

Sometimes, it’s not about the stats. In Gentry’s case, the nine-yard touchdown reception he hauled in during the second quarter of the Cowboys’ 24-15 win against Colorado State was his first since October 24, 2020. Knee injuries had kept him sidelined for the past two seasons, so he serves as a useful reminder that college football can often be a ground for perseverance and inspiration, to demonstrate what’s possible to others.

Losers

1. Air Force

Among the six Mountain West games last weekend, no result was more shocking than the Falcons’ litany of errors in a 23-3 defeat to Army at the Commander’s Classic. Not only did the Black Knights hold Air Force’s rushing attack to 3.9 yards per carry, they also forced six fumbles and recovered five of them, turning those opportunities into 13 points.

Quarterback Zac Larrier also had his worst game of the year at a very inopportune time, throwing two interceptions and taking two sacks while completing just 9-of-22 passes for 93 yards. The defense, meanwhile, limited Army to 4.2 yards per carry as a team but weren’t as disruptive as usual with just three tackles for loss and zero takeaways. While the Falcons still hold the inside track to hosting the conference championship, letting one of their annual goals slip away in such lopsided fashion may sting for a while.

2. Boise State

The Broncos are in the wilderness.

Little about the program is working like it did during its phenomenal run of success over two decades and the team’s 37-30 defeat against Fresno State provided plenty of evidence. Quarterbacks Maddux Madsen and Taylen Green each threw an interception, but Madsen was also just 22-of-42 for 258 yards and a touchdown and, according to Pro Football Focus, had four different turnover-worthy plays against the Bulldogs defense. Running back George Holani continued to play well following his recent return from injury, racking up 140 all-purpose yards, but he also had just three touches in the fourth quarter.

The defense, meanwhile, continued to flounder by allowing Fresno State to gain 6.4 yards per play and generating only one sack to go along with four quarterback hurries (per PFF) on 37 dropbacks. Effectively eliminated from the conference championship hunt and staring down the very real possibility of not even bowling in December, the Broncos must now move forward without top wide receiver Eric McAlister, as well, who elected to enter the transfer portal this morning. It’s a brave new world in Treasure Valley; the question is whether the blue and orange faithful are ready for it.

3. San Diego State

Speaking of less-than-ideal situations, the Aztecs’ 32-24 double-overtime loss to Utah State marked the team’s sixth defeat in their last seven games. While some individual performances stood out despite the result — linebacker Zyrus Fiaseu had three sacks, for instance, while quarterback Jalen Mayden had arguably his best overall performance of the season — many of the same problems persisted: They averaged 4.2 yards per carry, but Lucky Sutton’s 62-yard run accounted for 48.8% of the team’s rushing yardage on the game. The defense coughed up 288 yards’ worth of chunk plays and has now given up 44 plays of 20-plus yards on the season; that may not sound like much, but San Diego State gave up 48 such plays during their most recent run to the conference championship game just two years ago.

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Mountain West Football: Players Of The Month For October

The weather is finally cooling down, but these Mountain West football standouts were red-hot throughout spooky season.

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Mountain West Football: Players of the Month For October

The weather is finally cooling down, but these Mountain West football standouts were red-hot throughout spooky season.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

The small-sample elite.

Note: Players below are presented in alphabetical order.

Offensive Players of the Month

1. Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State

Though Jeanty was limited by injury in Boise State’s victory over Wyoming in Week 9, the super sophomore still posted one of the nation’s best overall performances through October. In three games, Jeanty posted a Mountain West-best 163.3 all-purpose yards per game, averaging a whopping 7.08 yards per carry on the ground, and scored three touchdowns.

2. Kairee Robinson, RB, San Jose State

The Spartans surged in October thanks in large part to their star senior in the backfield. It was Robinson, not Jeanty, that led the Mountain West with 435 rushing yards and nine total touchdowns last month, though he also chipped in with ten receptions for 165 yards for the SJSU passing game, as well.

3. Jalen Royals, WR, Utah State

After posting a monster game to close out September against UConn, Royals kept the good times rolling into last month with a pair of 100-yard performances, racking up 17 catches for 325 yards in three contests, and a conference-high five receiving touchdowns.

4. Ricky White, WR, UNLV

Though the Rebels ended October with a bit of heartache, you can’t say White didn’t do everything possible to keep UNLV in the title game chase. After all, he tallied 24 catches for a Mountain West-high 400 receiving yards with touchdowns, topping 150 yards against both Nevada and Fresno State.

Defensive Players of the Month

1. Jay’Vion Cole, CB, San Jose State

If Cole’s October performance is any indication, the Spartans’ newest star defender is quietly putting together a pretty solid candidacy for defensive player of the year. He was the only defender in the Mountain West to intercept three passes last month, doing so across four games, though he added two additional pass breakups and, according to Pro Football Focus, allowed a reception on 10 of 21 targets.

2. Mohamed Kamara, DE, Colorado State

Where Cole’s case might be subtle, Kamara’s defensive player of the year push disrupted offenses just about as frequently as it did in September. He once again paced the Mountain West with four sacks and finished third among conference defenders with five tackles for loss while also racking up 20 total tackles.

3. Bo Richter, DE, Air Force

Then again, the same could be said of Richter, who posted an overall PFF grade of 81.7 throughout October, the seventh-best mark among Mountain West defenders who played at least 50 snaps, and racked up three sacks, seven tackles for loss, and a forced fumble to go along with 11 total tackles in three Falcons contests.

4. Jackson Woodard, LB, UNLV

When it came to tackling, few players in the country were as prolific as Woodard was in the middle of the Rebels defense last month. He was one of only 15 FBS players to average at least 11 tackles per game, though he also intercepted a pass against Hawaii and, according to PFF, also tied for third among Mountain West defenders with eight total stops.

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Boise State vs. Fresno State: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction

The resurgent Broncos look to take down the rival Bulldogs and hang on to the Milk Can. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.

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Boise State vs. Fresno State: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction

The resurgent Broncos look to take down the rival Bulldogs and hang on to the Milk Can. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS and @MWCwire

The rivalry overflows with stakes this weekend.

WEEK 10: Boise State Broncos (4-4, 3-1 Mountain West) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (7-1, 3-1 MW)

WHEN: Saturday, November 4 — 7:00 PM PT/8:00 PM MT

WHERE: Valley Children’s Stadium; Fresno, CA

WEATHER: Mostly cloudy, low of 57 degrees

TV: CBS Sports Network

STREAMING: Fans can sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, which includes CBS Sports Network, by following this link.

RADIO: The Boise State broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Bronco Radio Network, including flagship KBOI (670 AM and 93.1 FM) in Boise. The Fresno State broadcast can be found in and around the Central Valley on the affiliates of the Bulldog Sports network, including flagship 1340 AM (KCBL) in Fresno.

SERIES RECORD: Boise State leads the all-time series, 17-8. In the last meeting on December 3, 2022, the Bulldogs defeated the Broncos, 28-16, for the Mountain West championship in Boise.

LAST GAME: Boise State beat Wyoming at home, 32-7, while Fresno State won at home against UNLV, 31-24.

WEBSITES: BroncoSports.com, the official Boise State athletics website | GoBulldogs.com, the official Fresno State athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Boise State | Fresno State

ODDS: Fresno State -3

SP+ PROJECTION: Fresno State by 4.4

FEI PROJECTION: Fresno State by 8.7

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: Fresno State 74.49% win probability (30.21-21.48)

Always one of the most hotly anticipated matchups of Mountain West football season, the Boise State Broncos and Fresno State Bulldogs will take center stage to cap off Week 10 of conference action.

Three Keys to a Boise State Victory

1. Don’t get killed by offensive turnovers.

One thing that’s been a persistent issue for the Broncos throughout 2023, even as they’ve mostly rediscovered their winning ways, is giveaways. The 15 turnovers are just two fewer than Boise State had in all of 2022 and as many as they had in 2021, and it’s a big reason why they’re on track to finish with a negative margin (-6, for the moment) for just the third time since 2009.

Some of that comes down to horrid fumble luck because the Broncos have lost eight of ten, but Maddux Madsen and Taylen Green have also combined for an interception rate that’s just a tick under 3%, which is itself a tick higher than the 2.4% rate they managed a year ago. By contrast, Fresno State has both the most takeaways (18) and the second-fewest giveaways (seven) of any team in the Mountain West, so there’s a strong case to be made Boise State could doom themselves if they’re too careless.

2. Get Eric McAlister some help in the passing game.

The sophomore wide receiver from Azle, Texas has firmly established himself as one of the best in the Mountain West throughout the 2023 season, but help around him has been sorely lacking in conference play: Stefan Cobbs has just four receptions in four Mountain West and Billy Bowens has only six, averaging 10.6 yards per catch against conference foes between them.

Considering that McAlister is likely to lock horns with Bulldogs cornerback Carlton Johnson early and often, Cobbs, Bowens, and tight ends Matt Lauter and Riley Smith will need to provide some assistance to take advantage of potential soft spots elsewhere in coverage. Namely, don’t be shocked if offensive Bush Hamdan tries to pick on Alzillion Hamilton, who has stepped into the starting lineup following a season-ending injury to Cam Lockridge with mixed results: Per Pro Football Focus, he’s only allowed a reception on 55.3% of the 38 targets he’s seen, but Hamilton also has a 39.3% missed tackle rate.

3. Hold the line on third downs.

One small, but key, difference in Boise State’s recent turnaround is improved defense on third downs. After holding Wyoming to just 1-of-11 in Week 9, the Broncos have now allowed Mountain West opponents to earn a first down on 35.9% of opportunities, the third-best rate in the Mountain West and, as it happens, a better rate than that of Fresno State, who have allowed a third-down conversion rate of 40.35% in four conference games.

Maintaining that upper hand will be important since the Bulldogs have found a way to move the chains more frequently than the Broncos on offense, converting 50.9% of third downs in Mountain West action to Boise State’s 44.9% rate. If the defensive improvement is for real, styming the powerful Fresno State offense more often than not will be significant proof of it.

Three Keys to a Fresno State State Victory

1. Get home no matter who’s dropping back to pass.

Despite the unusual two-quarterback arrangement that the Broncos have deployed over the last several weeks, one thing they’ve done consistently well is pass protection, allowing Maddux Madsen and Taylen Green to get sacked just eight times on 260 combined dropbacks.

However, one discrepancy that the Bulldogs might be able to exploit is that one Boise State quarterback has felt considerably more pressure than the other. According to Pro Football Focus, Green’s pressure-to-sack ratio is just 7%, the lowest figure in the Mountain West, but Madsen’s 23.8% rate is the highest. The hope, then, is that Fresno State and its 17.3% havoc rate can find a way to capitalize where Colorado State, San Jose State, and Wyoming could not.

2. Keep the Broncos running game in check.

One key to Fresno State’s success in last week’s win over UNLV is that, after adjusting for sacks, the Rebels’ running backs managed only 3.7 yards per carry. That’s the latest testament to the 21% stuff rate that the Bulldogs have generated thus far, though that skill will get tested again by Ashton Jeanty, George Holani, and Jambres “Breezy” Dubar.

However, one potential wrench in Boise State’s plans is whether Jeanty is healthy enough to receive his usual heavy workload, as he had six carries last Saturday against Wyoming before missing the entire second half with an undisclosed injury. While head coach Andy Avalos expressed confidence that the ailment was probably no big deal, it’s worth noting that Holani’s return from a six-game absence was more okay than anything with 75 rushing yards on 20 carries (coincidentally, Dubar also averaged 3.75 yards per carry against the Cowboys). In other words, if Jeanty is actually limited to some extent, it could provide a potential boon to the Fresno State defense.

3. Be prepared to string together long scoring drives.

Thankfully, this has not often been an issue for the Fresno State offense. According to Brian Fremeau, the Bulldogs currently rank 16th in the country by averaging 2.73 points on drives that begin inside their own 20-yard line; by contrast, the Boise State defense has given up 2.20 points on those same drives, an average which is 101st overall.

However, the Broncos may have a substantial special teams advantage in punter James Ferguson-Reynolds, who currently leads the Mountain West with an average of 49.68 yards per punt and eighth among all FBS specialists with a net of 43.35 per kick. Assuming that Kevin Coyle’s defense can do its job consistently, it may come down to whether Mikey Keene and company can craft an 80-yard touchdown drive at some point or not.

Prediction

Though the Bulldogs are the defending Mountain West champions, Boise State has actually held on to the Milk Can every year since 2018. That streak includes the 40-14 blowout at Valley Children’s Stadium back in 2021, when Fresno State was ranked.

The question is this: How much trust do you have in Boise State’s defense? The same unit that just finished embarrassing Wyoming last Saturday had a total collapse against Colorado State the week before, and it seems reasonable to suggest the Bulldogs offense is more akin to the Rams than the Cowboys. On paper, there are good reasons why the home team is the slight favorite but the Red Wave knows better than most that you can’t count the blue and orange out under any circumstances. Expect a nailbiter, but I think the ‘Dogs survive and reclaim rivalry bragging rights.

Fresno State 34, Boise State 33

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College Football Playoff Rankings: Will The Mountain West Land In The First Top 25?

Can Air Force or Fresno State establish a foothold in the race to a New Year’s Six bowl game?

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College Football Playoff Rankings: Will The Mountain West Land In The First Top 25?

Can Air Force or Fresno State establish a foothold in the race to a New Year’s Six bowl game?

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Two teams are in contention. How much respect will they receive?

College football season has reached November’s doorstep and, to this point in the calendar year, the Mountain West has not disappointed.

While the field of expected and surprise contenders thinned over the last couple of weeks, the two teams at the top of the conference standings, the Air Force Falcons and Fresno State Bulldogs, might have done enough to merit an appearance on the season’s first College Football Playoff top 25 rankings, which will be revealed on Tuesday.

Here’s how the two contenders stack up:

Air Force Falcons (8-0)

Oct 28, 2023; Fort Collins, Colorado, USA; Air Force Falcons quarterback Zac Larrier (9) runs with the ball against the Colorado State Rams at Sonny Lubick Field at Canvas Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports

SP+ rank: 30 | FEI rank (through Week 9): 23 | Sagarin rank: 39 | Strength-of-schedule rank (per Sagarin/Sports Reference): 123/121

Best three wins: vs. Wyoming (5-3), at San Jose State (4-5), at Navy (3-4)

Best three opponent wins: Wyoming over Texas Tech (3-5) at home, San Diego State over Ohio (6-3) at home, Colorado State over Boise State (4-4) at home

The case for the Falcons: The Falcons are one of eight undefeated FBS teams left standing and, more importantly, one of just three 8-0 teams among the Group of 5. They’ve also proven in the last few weeks that they can push back when pushed, rallying to beat Wyoming at home before surviving back-to-back road challenges against rivals Navy and Colorado State.

The case against the Falcons: A soft schedule to date might limit the Falcons’ ceiling to start, as that is the same obstacle that hinders most G5 aspirants in the debut rankings. Among Air Force’s eight victories so far, only 5-3 Wyoming currently has a winning record, though they’ll have the chance to bolster that in November with back-to-back clashes against UNLV and Boise State to close the regular season.

Fresno State Bulldogs (7-1)

Sep 30, 2023; Fresno, California, USA; Fresno State Bulldogs defensive back Camryn Bracha (27) is congratulated by linebacker Levelle Bailey (6) after recording a sack against the Nevada Wolf Pack in the third quarter at Valley Children’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

SP+ rank: 47 | FEI rank (through Week 9): 37 | Sagarin rank: 59 | Strength-of-schedule rank (per Sagarin/Sports Reference): 110/128

Best three wins: vs. UNLV (6-2), at Utah State (3-5), at Purdue (2-6)

Best three opponent wins: Purdue over Virginia Tech (4-4) on the road, Arizona State over Washington State (4-4) at home, UNLV over UTEP (3-6) on the road

The case for the Bulldogs: Fresno State has battled injuries all year long, but Jeff Tedford’s Bulldogs are still in the hunt thanks to an offense that rarely beats itself and an opportunistic defense that is probably the best in the Mountain West outside of Colorado Springs. Like Air Force, they’ve also mostly taken care of the business on the road with three wins away from Valley Children’s Stadium, one of 12 Group of 5 teams with at least three road victories through Week 9.

The case against the Bulldogs: Unlike Air Force, Fresno State lost to Wyoming for their lone blemish to date. Also unlike Air Force, the Bulldogs have won more often than not but haven’t always done so convincingly. While the College Football Playoff committee doesn’t take margin of victory into explicit account, it may be hard to ignore that Fresno State is now 4-1 in games decided by eight or fewer points, part of an overall schedule through which, at present, UNLV is the team’s lone victory over an opponent with a current winning record.

How do these Mountain West teams stack up against everyone else in the hunt? Read on to learn more.

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Mountain West Football: Week 9 Winners And Losers

Emmanuel Michael, Senika McKie, and Wyoming are among Mountain West football’s biggest winners and losers from Week 9.

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Mountain West Football: Week 9 Winners And Losers

Who came out ahead and who left something to be desired across the Mountain West in Week 9 of the college football season?

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Encouragements and letdowns from the week that was.

You might as well have called last weekend in Mountain West football “Statement Saturday.”

While there wasn’t a lot of high drama (though they had that covered in the Central Valley almost single-handedly), everyone got a chance to send a message to the rest of the conference: It’s Air Force and it’s everyone else. Boise State isn’t dead yet and neither is Fresno State. Nevada may have found some footing after all.

Because some of those statements were less encouraging than others, however, here are the winners and losers from Week 9.

Winners

1. Air Force running back Emmanuel Michel

The battle for the Ram-Falcon Trophy may have turned out to be tougher and snowier than expected for the Mountain-West leading cadets, but Michel’s performance in the second half of Air Force’s 30-13 win over Colorado State helped ensure the road team would hang on rivalry bragging rights. He picked up 113 of his 130 rushing yards after halftime, including a key 53-yard scamper in the third quarter that flipped the field and helped to set the Falcons up with a ten-point lead, and capped the scoring with a five-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter.

2. Fresno State linebacker Levelle Bailey

The Bulldogs’ senior star has developed a knack for being in the right place at the right time, killing UNLV’s last-gasp rally with a game-sealing interception to secure a 31-24 win over the Rebels.

Most people will immediately point out that isn’t even Bailey’s first game-sealing pick of the season — he did the same thing to Eastern Washington back in September — but it’s also worth mentioning he tied for the team high with eight total tackles, broke up a second pass in the first quarter and, per Pro Football Focus, allowed just 25 total yards on the five times he was targeted in coverage.

3. Nevada cornerback Michael Coats Jr.

Sometimes, it’s just your day. That certainly appeared to be the case for the former East Central Community College transfer on Saturday in a 34-24 win over New Mexico, as the Lobos tested him early and often but, according to PFF, would be repeatedly denied: His second quarter interception would set up a short scoring drive that extended the Wolf Pack lead to 24-0 at that point, but he also broke up two passes and allowed just three receptions on a team-high ten targets. For a team sorely lacking in bright spots in the first half of the season, Coats Jr.’s performance came at just the right time for the Nevada faithful to think things might be headed in the right direction after all.

Losers

1. UNLV wide receiver Senika McKie

Catching a football is sometimes harder than it looks. It’s important to remember that when someone lets a well-placed goal-line fade — far from the easiest play to make on a route tree under most circumstances — slip through their fingers like McKie did on Saturday night in a 31-24 loss to Fresno State.

PFF notes it was the only pass dropped by a Rebels receiver against the Bulldogs, though McKie now has twice as many dropped passes (six) as anyone else on the roster on just 34 targets this season. For the moment, that 27.3% drop rate is the highest among all qualifying Mountain West players; the latest misfortune just happened to come at a moment that many UNLV folks will probably be thinking about for a long time.

2. Wyoming

Cowboy football’s remaining skeptics came away with plenty to talk about on Saturday in the wreckage of a 32-7 defeat on the road to Boise State. The offense was dead on arrival, averaging 2.5 yards per play, finishing 1-of-11 on third downs, and crossing midfield only because Stefan Cobbs muffed a punt return late in the first quarter. On defense, Jay Sawvel’s secondary was simply overmatched by Eric McAlister and couldn’t capitalize on Ashton Jeanty’s limited availability, allowing Maddux Madsen to move through the air seemingly at will while George Holani’s return from injury allowed the Broncos to survive on the ground.

Now effectively eliminated from the Mountain West title chase, the Cowboys are sitting at 5-3 with a -20 point differential after eight games. They were also 5-3 after games in 2022, but the difference is that this was supposed to be the year in which their returning production advantage might finally put them over the top. The more things change, though, the more they seem to stay the same in Laramie.

3. Hawaii

Are Timmy Chang’s Warriors regressing before our eyes? It’s not what you hoped to see on the back half of his second year in charge, but a 35-0 shutout to San Jose State marked the third time in four conference games that Hawaii has lost by at least three touchdowns. Quarterback Brayden Schager never got going, finishing 17-of-29 for 132 yards and one interception before being relieved in the fourth quarter, while punter/kicker Matthew Shipley ended up as the team’s leading rusher with a 17-yard run on a third-quarter fake.

The more serious concern is that the defense has stagnated even more, allowing the Spartans to average 6.9 yards per play through the first three quarters. Perhaps no one is more emblematic of the team’s growing pains than sophomore linebacker Jalen Smith, who collected two of his three tackles for loss on SJSU’s second possession but also picked up an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty that enabled to Spartans to extend the drive and, eventually, collect their first points of the game. Patience is probably still a virtue here, but you can’t blame fans for feeling a little angst at blowout after blowout.

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UNLV Loses Close Game To Fresno State, 31-24

Recap of UNLV’s loss to Fresno State.

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UNLV Loses Close Game To Fresno State, 31-24

UNLV tried to make a late comeback against Fresno State

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Recap of the game

It was a back and forth game that saw UNLV capture and lose a lead between the first and second halves.

UNLV entered halftime with a 17-7 lead and it appeared that the Rebels would be en route to an upset win. Fresno State turned it on in the third quarter and scored 24 unanswered points. That was enough for Fresno State to hold onto a lead for the remainder of the game.

UNLV quarterback Jayden Maiava passed for two touchdowns, two interceptions, and 268 passing yards. Fresno State quarterback Mikey Keene threw for four touchdowns, two interceptions and 256 yards in the win over UNLV.

Ricky White was Maiava’s most relied upon receiver with two receiving touchdowns and 152 receiving yards. Fresno State running back Malik Sherrod made a difference in the receiving game. He caught a touchdown pass and finished the game with eight catches for 28 yards.

This game had all of the offense you could possibly want. For Fresno State, the program moved to 7-1 with the win. The Bulldogs are set to face Boise State on Saturday, Nov. 4. UNLV dropped to 6-2 on the season and will look to bounce back against New Mexico on Saturday, Nov. 4.

UNLV Football: How the Rebels Can Beat Fresno State, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction

The UNLV Rebels have their real test this Saturday night against the Fresno State Bulldogs on the road. These programs have played each other as part of three different conferences (Big West, WAC, and now MW), and Fresno State leads the overall series 18-7.

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Date: Saturday, October 28, 2023

Time: 7:30 PM PT

TV: Fox Sports 1

Live Stream: Watch this game on Fubo

City: Fresno, California

Venue: Bulldog Stadium at Jim Sweeney Field

Odds: Fresno State -9

The UNLV Rebels have their real test this Saturday night against the Fresno State Bulldogs on the road. These programs have played each other as part of three different conferences (Big West, WAC, and now MW), and Fresno State leads the overall series 18-7. This marks the first time these teams will play on a Saturday in three years, as the last two meetings occurred on a Friday night.

UNLV, who is receiving votes in both major polls for the first time since 2003, is bowl-eligible for the first time since playing in the Heart of Dallas Bowl after the 2013 season.

Rushing Attack

For the Rebels to win this game, they must lean on their rushing attack. UNLV averages 209 yards per game. The Rebels have three running backs with over 300 yards rushing on the season. Vincent Davis Jr. leads the team with 388 yards, Donavyn Lester adds 325 yards, and Jai” Den Thomas has 319.

The Rebels rushing attack is critical because it keeps them in third and manageable; now, UNLV converts 53% of their third down conversions. The Bulldogs do a decent job stopping the run, giving up 114 yards per game; that’s good for second in the Mountain West.

Slow Down Bulldogs

On Defense, the Rebels must slow down the Fresno State offense; they averaged 34 points per game. They pass the ball well with Mikey Keene, who has passed for 1,692 yards, 15 touchdowns, and four interceptions. The Bulldogs can also run the ball with Malik Sherrod and Elijah Gilliam. 

The Rebels must focus on stopping the run and putting pressure on Keene to make him uncomfortable.

Turnovers

The turnover battle will be key on Saturday night. Who wins the turnover battle will likely win. Rebels quarterback Jayden Maiava must refrain from turning the ball over. With the Bulldogs focusing on stopping the run, there will be plays to be made down the field; that’s when Ricky White should come into play.

Prediction

Bulldogs winning a classic game in the final seconds, 28-27.

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Week 8 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets

Step right and place your bets! The Mountain West heads into week 8 and we look at where you should put your money this week.

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Week 8 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets

A look at the Mountain West betting odds for Week 8

Contact/Follow @J0shFr3d & @MWCwire

What are the oddsmakers saying about these match ups?

Late in the week we will look at odds and recent lines and make our best picks and bets. Odds courtesy of Vegas Insider.

We went 2-4 in week seven and are 35-27-1 on the year. Another week below .500. At this point, just take the opposite of what I do.

#22 Air Force @ Navy (+10, O/U 33.5)

Air Force has been dominant all season. They got tested against Wyoming, but have taken care of business against everyone else. Navy is in that everyone else category. Usually service academy matchups are close, but the Midshipmen haven’t been at that level the past few years. Take the Falcons to cover.

Pick: Air Force -10

Hawai’i @ New Mexico (+2.5, O/U 60.5)

The Warriors are looking for their first road win of the Timmy Chang era. The run-and-shoot offense is start to gain a foothold. The Lobos looked to be turning a corner on offense, but backslid against San Jose State. Look for that to continue against Hawai’i.

Pick: Hawai’i -2.5

Colorado State @ UNLV (-7.5, O/U 61.5)

It’s a shootout in Vegas this week. The Rebels and Rams both have horrible defenses and it probably won’t change this week unless something drastic happens. Look for this to get close to 70-75 points.

Pick: Over

Utah State @ San Jose State (-4.5, O/U 66.5)

This is the Mountain West trap game of the week. San Jose State broke out of their funk against New Mexico. The Aggies had a chance to beat Fresno State. This has the makings of an offensive slugfest. I still don’t trust the Spartans and the Aggies have shown something these past couple of weeks.

Pick: Utah State +4

Nevada @ San Diego state (-11.5, O/U 47.5)

Look Nevada is bad and has a chance to go winless this year. The Aztecs aren’t that good of a team either, but they’ve managed to make enough plays to get three wins this year. This could be another shootout, but I doubt it with how bad these offenses are. Take the under.

Pick: Under

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Week 7 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets

The Mountain West rolls on and we once again look at where you should place your money this week.

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Week 7 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets

A look at the Mountain West betting odds for Week 7

Contact/Follow @J0shFr3d & @MWCwire

What are the oddsmakers saying about these match ups?

Late in the week we will look at odds and recent lines and make our best picks and bets. Odds courtesy of Vegas Insider.

We went 1-2 in week six and are 33-23-1 on the year. Another week below .500. At this point, just take the opposite of what I do.

Fresno State @ Utah state (+5.5, O/U 54.5)

Fresno State’s defense is allowing less than 300 yards a game. Utah State hasn’t really faced good defenses this year outside of Air Force and Iowa. The Bulldogs offense is going to drive this scoreline. If they can finish drives, they’ll cover easy. If they can’t, it will be a close one.

Pick: Fresno State -5.5

UNLV @ Nevada (+7.5, O/U 53.5)

Rivalry games usually mean you throw the stats out of the window. However, this year’s Nevada team is the exception to the rule. They are next to last in almost all categories. UNLV on the other hand is one of this years surprises. Barry Odom has this team on the verge of bowl eligibility in year one. The Rebels offense is still finding an identity but they execute well.

Pick: UNLV -7.5

San Jose State @ New Mexico (+7.5, O/U 55.5)

The Spartans are not the team anyone thought they were going to be this year. They are really struggling on offense. New Mexico has been a surprise. They have somewhat of an offense and seem to be trending in the right direction. I think they’ll surprise people in this game and cover, if not outright win.

Pick: New Mexico +7.5

Wyoming @ Air Force (-11.5, O/U 42.5)

Yeah, no idea what to really go with here. Craig Bohl has a winning record against Air Force. This is Air Force’s first real test of the year. This seems like the perfect time for a ball control classic from Troy Calhoun. Expect the Falcons to slog it out one play at a time and take 10 minutes per drive.

Pick: Under

Boise State @ Colorado state (+8.5, O/U 60.5)

Slam the over right now! I’m comfortable taking the over up to 69.5. I feel it could go 80+, but you never know. Both defenses have been horrible and both offenses have shown they can light it up at times. The Rams are on homecoming and coming off an embarrassing loss, so lets see what happens.

Pick: Over

San Diego State @ Hawai’i (+6, O/U 52.5)

Umm, yeah. What to really do here. Hawai’i seems like they can cover here. They have a decent defense against a horrid Aztecs offense. The really battle will come down to whether or not the Warriors can move the ball. They’ve struggled at times this year, but the Aztecs aren’t the defense we’ve known them to be this season.

Pick: Hawai’i +6

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Fresno State vs. Utah State: Why The Bulldogs Can Win, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction

The Bulldogs will need to move past last week’s loss in a hurry against the explosive Aggies. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.

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Fresno State vs. Utah State: Why The Bulldogs Can Win, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction

The Bulldogs will need to move past last week’s loss in a hurry against the explosive Aggies. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS and @MWCwire

No time to mourn on a short week.

WEEK 7: Fresno State Bulldogs (5-1, 1-1 Mountain West) vs. Utah State Aggies (3-3, 1-1 MW)

WHEN: Friday, October 13 — 5:00 PM PT/6:00 PM MT

WHERE: Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium; Logan, UT

WEATHER: Partly cloudy, low of 37 degrees

TV: CBS Sports Network

STREAMING: Fans can sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, which includes CBS Sports Network, by following this link.

RADIO: The Fresno State broadcast can be found in and around the Central Valley on the affiliates of the Bulldog Sports network, including flagship 1340 AM (KCBL) in Fresno. The Utah State broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Aggie Radio Network, including flagship 1280 The Zone (KZNS) in Salt Lake City.

SERIES RECORD: Fresno State leads the all-time series, 18-13-1. In the last meeting on November 14, 2020, the Bulldogs defeated the Aggies, 34-16, in Logan.

LAST GAME: Fresno State lost on the road to Wyoming, 24-19, while Utah State defeated Colorado State at home, 44-24.

WEBSITES: GoBulldogs.com, the official Fresno State athletics website | UtahStateAggies.com, the official Utah State athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Fresno State | Utah State

ODDS: Fresno State -5.5

SP+ PROJECTION: Fresno State by 7.8

FEI PROJECTION: Fresno State by 13.2

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: Fresno State 70.28% win probability (31.10-23.11)

After getting saddled with their first loss of 2023, the Fresno State Bulldogs will face a different kind of challenge in their second straight road game, this time against the Utah State Aggies.

Much like Jason Voorhees, the Aggies seem tough to kill despite a habit of performing miserably in the first quarter. While both sides could be playing with their backup quarterback, the Bulldogs will also be without cornerback Cam Lockridge for the rest of the season. Is there too much blood in the water, or can the Bulldogs live to defend their crown for another week?

Here’s what Fresno State can do to bounce back and beat the Aggies.

Three Keys to a Fresno State Victory

1. Beware of Ike Larsen.

If his freshman year in 2022 wasn’t enough proof, the young Aggies safety is clearly one of the best overall players the Bulldogs will deal with all season. Besides owning the second-highest overall Pro Football Focus grade of any defender in the conference, 86.1, Larsen has already intercepted three passes, blocked two kicks, and given up just 10.3 yards per reception when targeted, the seventh-lowest average among 27 conference players who’ve seen at least 20 targets.

Taking shots down the field, then, will come with some risk despite Fresno State’s wide receiver talent, but that might not be the game plan, anyway, especially if Logan Fife starts in place of starting quarterback Mikey Keene, whose status for Friday night is up in the air. According to PFF, Fife’s average depth of target on 177 career dropbacks is just 6.6 yards, a low figure that isn’t altogether different from Keene’s (7.5 ADOT) and Jake Haener’s before him (8.7 ADOT in 2022). Getting the ball out quickly to receivers in space might be the way to go with that in mind, especially since four different Fresno State receivers have already racked up 100 yards after the catch.

2. Continue stopping the run.

The Bulldogs have done an exceptional job of keeping opposing running backs in check to date, posting a 25% stuff rate through the first six games and bottling up the likes of Cameron Skattebo, Devin Mockobee, and Harrison Waylee so far. Utah State presents an entirely different kind of challenge, however, since there’s not one but three players in their backfield — Davon Booth, Rahsul Faison, and Robert Briggs — who could change the dynamic of the game in one play.

While the Aggies’ propensity for slow starts is well known, that doesn’t necessarily apply to this trio. In six first quarters, Booth, Faison, and Briggs have combined to average 6.96 yards per carry; the catch is that they have just 23 first-quarter rushing attempts between them. Considering that quarterbacks Cooper Legas and McCae Hillstead (the latter of whom probably won’t play, as reported by Jason Walker of the Cache Valley Daily, as he recovers from a concussion) haven’t covered themselves in glory in the first 15 minutes of games all year, it wouldn’t be a shock if Utah State offensive coordinator Kyle Cefalo decided to take a different approach to this game. Fresno State must be ready if they do.

3. Find an edge on special teams.

Last week, you could have argued that Utah State had an overall advantage in this facet of the game with Terrell Vaughn and Micah Davis thriving as returners, Elliot Nimrod holding his own as the team’s new kicker, and Stephen Kotsanlee established as a reliable punter, but the last of that group is out for the rest of the season after suffering a broken leg in Week 6 against Colorado State.

Now, punting duties will fall to redshirt freshman Ryan Marks, whose 40-yard boot against the Rams last Saturday was the first of his college career. It could make winning the field position game that much more important, especially since Kotsanlee had been in the midst of his best year yet (43.5 yards per punt, 8-of-25 kicks inside the 20). After successfully executing an onside kick in last week’s loss to Wyoming, we know the Bulldogs have some tricks up their sleeve if needed, but it remains to be seen if they’ll find a way to exploit this unexpected personnel change.

Prediction

Hitting the road for a second straight week, and with one fewer day for preparation, is a tall order for any Mountain West football team. Doing so against the highest-scoring offense in the conference, potentially with a backup quarterback, on Friday the 13th, feels particularly scary. It’s going to come down to how the defense responds after getting pushed more often than expected against Wyoming last weekend, so if they can force the Aggies into mistakes, the offense has the goods, with or without Keene, to take advantage of those chances.

One way or another, both teams are fighting for survival in Mountain West play, so expect a killer game.

Fresno State 35, Utah State 34

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