Tag: Fresno State Bulldogs

Week 7 DPI Rankings: Lobos Rising After Six-Game Streak

It was back to non-conference play last week for the Mountain West. Not everybody was in action—and some who were now wish they hadn’t been.

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Week 7 DPI Rankings: Lobos Rising After Six-Game Streak

The top two stand pat, but plenty of movement below

Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire

New Mexico, Boise State climbing in the latest DPI rankings for Week 7

It was back to non-conference play last week for the league’s affiliate members on the heels of the opening salvo to the long Mountain West season. Not everybody was in action—and some now wish they hadn’t been.

But it wasn’t all misery.

Some teams are making big strides, including one squad trying to make a move into the uppermost echelon of the MWC.

Below are the DPI rankings heading into the heart of Week 7. If you’re new to the rankings or just want a refresher, head here for a rundown of how the DPI is calculated. The ratings below reflect games played through Tuesday, December 17. As always, non-Division I games are not counted in the DPI.

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#1 — SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS

Last Week: #1

The Aztecs moved to the #1 spot in the Mountain West last week and with no games since their close shave against San Jose State, they haven’t moved much up or down. Brian Dutcher’s team is still undefeated and boasts one of the best defenses in the country. Malachi Flynn’s star turn has propelled SDSU into the national polls, along with the play of Matt Mitchell, Yanni Wetzell, and Jordan Schakel. If KJ Feagin can provide a little more offense, this team could really turn in a special season.

#2 — UTAH STATE AGGIES

Last Week: #2

It’s been a bit of a rough patch for the Aggies over the past few games. They still have one of the two best rosters in the league, but they aren’t quite living up to preseason expectations so far. After losing to Saint Mary’s and looking underwhelming in their first two Mountain West games, Utah State fell to BYU on Saturday in Salt Lake City. It was only their second loss, but it’s a missed opportunity for a good out-of-conference win to put on their NCAA Tournament resume.

#3 — NEW MEXICO LOBOS

Last Week: #4

The Lobos have won six straight after toppling New Mexico State and Grand Canyon since the last DPI rankings were posted here. Though they aren’t playing at the level of SDSU just yet, this patchwork roster of homegrown talent and incoming transfers has performed admirably in the early going. JaQuan Lyle has been everything that Paul Weir could have wanted and more. Oh, and Carlton Bragg is averaging a double-double. So far, so good.

#4 — NEVADA WOLF PACK

Last Week: #3

The Wolf Pack looked like they were starting to turn a corner over the past few weeks, winning five straight games on either side of Thanksgiving. But last week, Nevada was the second casualty of BYU’s surge, along with Utah State and UNLV. The offense had been clicking on all cylinders, but immediately downshifted from a 100-point performance against Air Force to a 42-point outing against the Cougars. That kind of volatility that makes it tough to trust Steve Alford’s club.

#5 — BOISE STATE BRONCOS

Last Week: #6

Leon Rice is getting things back on track in Boise, but outside of their win over BYU—before Yoeli Childs came back, of course—the Broncos haven’t really beaten anybody. It was another rocky showing for Boise State last week, with a midweek loss to Tulsa preceding a blowout win over Alabama State. Derrick Alston is averaging 21 points and Justinian Jessup is finding his form. But the starting five is not the problem here; Rice’s team suffers from a lack of depth.

#6 — COLORADO STATE RAMS

Last Week: #5

The Rams jumped out to a promising start, but they’ve lost three of their past four games, including both of their opening Mountain West bouts. Mixed in there was a 72-68 win over South Dakota State, and while the Jackrabbits are not a bad squad by any means, that they played CSU so closely gives a good indication of where the Rams are right now. Niko Medved’s team gave in-state rivals Colorado a run for their money, but ultimately fell 56-48 over the weekend.

#7 — AIR FORCE FALCONS

Last Week: #8

The defense still leaves a lot to be desired, but recently, the Falcons have been getting better results than they did during a rough November. The new month has been kinder to the cadets, with Air Force winning four of its past five (Note: Tuesday’s 99-42  win over Johnson & Wales is not counted in the DPI). AJ Walker has taken an important step forward as an offensive option. The sophomore was averaging 20 points per game over the past three games coming into Tuesday.

#8 — FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS

Last Week: #10

Justin Huston finally got his team to a second Division I win on Saturday against Cal Poly. But the bigger story here is the seven losses that they have already incurred. Nate Grimes is doing exactly what was expected of him so far, averaging a double-double with 13.5 points and 10.4 rebounds per night. Guards Jarred Hyder and New Williams both have some good performances under their belts, but they haven’t been able to click at the same time. That needs to change.

#9 — UNLV RUNNIN’ REBELS

Last Week: #9

The Rebels didn’t play last week, so the bad taste of the 33-point loss to BYU back has been lingering for a week and a half. There have been a lot of close calls, with UNLV playing in four separate overtime games so far. They are shooting under 42% from the field and turning the ball over 15 times a night. Games against Pacific and Robert Morris this week offer TJ Otzelberger the chance to start making some headway in his first year at the helm.

#10 — WYOMING COWBOYS

Last Week: #7

Allen Edwards got his Cowboys out to a 3-3 start, but they have dropped five straight games, including their most recent defeat at the hands of Northern Colorado. The Bears didn’t just sneak past Wyoming, either—the Big Sky hopefuls handed the home team a 21-point drubbing at Arena-Auditorium. The defense has been fair to middling, but the offense has been dreadful thus far. The Cowboys are shooting under 50% on two-pointers and just over 30% on threes.

#11 — SAN JOSÉ STATE SPARTANS

Last Week: #11

There’s a bit of a running joke around here about which Spartan is most likely to transfer next year, since the sputtering Spartans have seen five double-digit scorers depart in the past three offseasons—including Brandon Clarke, who parlayed his post-SJSU star turn at Gonzaga into a budding NBA career. All jokes aside, Seneca Knight has separated himself as the Spartans’ top option, scoring 12.5 points per game. Hopefully the sophomore can remain an important building block for Jean Prioleau.

That’s it for this week. Check back next week to see who’s rising and falling in the Mountain West and be sure to visit the Dieckhoff Power Index daily for updated rankings on all 353 teams in Division I basketball.

Andrew is a current USBWA member, covering college basketball for multiple outlets, including Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.

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Fresno State at Cal Poly: Game Preview, TV, Radio, Live Stream, Odds, More

Fresno State at Cal Poly: Game Preview, TV, Radio, Live Stream, Odds, More Fresno State hunting for first D1 victory since Nov. 10 Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire Bulldogs look to snap five-game skid GAME DETAILS WHO: Fresno State (2-7, …

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Fresno State at Cal Poly: Game Preview, TV, Radio, Live Stream, Odds, More

Fresno State hunting for first D1 victory since Nov. 10

Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire

Bulldogs look to snap five-game skid

GAME DETAILS

WHO: Fresno State (2-7, 0-2 MWC) at Cal Poly (2-7, 0-0 Big West)

WHEN: Saturday, December 14 — 7:00 P.M. PT / 8:00 P.M. MT

WHERE: Mott Athletics Center, San Luis Obispo, CA

WATCH: BigWest.TV

LISTEN: Fresno State All-Access; 940 AM ESPN

ALL-TIME RECORD: Fresno State leads the series, 32-8

ODDS: Fresno State -7, per KenPom

GAME PREVIEW

It’s been tough sledding for the Bulldogs thus far in the 2019-20 season, but Saturday night’s trip to San Luis Obispo to take on Cal Poly presents a good opportunity for Fresno State to turn their fortunes around.

Over a month has passed since the Bulldogs’ last—and only—win against a Division I team, a three-point win over Winthrop that nearly went the other way. Since then, Justin Hutson has only been able to celebrate once, after his team scored a hollow 92-47 over Division II Cal State San Bernadino.

But even counting the game against CSUSB, Fresno State hasn’t gotten a victory since November 17.

Instead, they’ve racked up five straight losses.

Fresno State was always going to be the underdog against teams like Utah State and Saint Mary’s, but hung well with both. They lost to the Gaels by 10 points, but took the Aggies to overtime before giving up their upset bid. Between those games, the Bulldogs’ were also bested by UNLV, a disappointing result made worse by the fact that it came by a single point after two overtime periods.

But no matter how good Fresno State may be with horseshoes and hand grenades, the binary win-loss column in the Mountain West standings doesn’t care about context—the team is 0-2, regardless of how close they came.

The issues for the Bulldogs have been on both ends of the court, but the offense has generally outperformed the defense. Jarred Hyder has been found money for Hutson, as the freshman guard leads Fresno State in scoring with 12.7 points per game.

Close behind is senior forward Nate Grimes at 12.3 points and 10.7 rebounds per game. Those numbers are an early advertisement for Grimes’ bid for All-MWC honors.

Newcomers Orlando Robinson and Mustapha Lawrence have contributed admirably so far, while Huston is still looking for more out of returning guards Noah Blackwell and New Williams.

As for Fresno State’s opponent, Cal Poly has had their fair share of struggles, too. In fact, until just a week ago, the Mustangs had yet to register their first Division I win of the season. But the team managed to squeeze out a 70-66 win over Siena seven days ago, perhaps signaling a changing of the tides.

Last month, first-year head coach John Smith got his first official win when the Mustangs coasted past Simpson University of the NAIA.

Smith, who played two seasons at UNLV in the late 1980s, served as an assistant at Cal State Fullerton for six seasons before getting his first Division I head coaching gig at Cal Poly.

Cal Poly’s leading scorer is sophomore guard Junior Ballard. Shooting 42% from beyond the arc this season, Ballard has taken a big step forward in year two. Behind him is former Boise State reserve Malek Harwell, who has a much bigger piece of the pie now that he is in San Luis Obispo. The transfer guard is shooting at an even higher clip, hitting 48% of his threes so far.

Ballard and Harwell are the only double-digit scorers for the Mustangs, though 6-10 center Tuukka Jaakkola and freshman guard Colby Rogers are both getting nearly nine per game. Rogers is shooting 45% from deep.

BY THE NUMBERS

Both teams come in with a similar profile: mediocre offense, poor defense. In terms of efficiency, Fresno State has better than Cal Poly on both ends of the court this season. Here’s a breakdown of how each team should fare when it has the ball in its hands.

On FRESNO STATE’S POSSESSIONS…

For all of their issues closing out games, the Bulldogs actually do have a pretty decent offense. The cornerstone of it is their ball security, with their turnover rate ranking near the top 100 nationally. The problem has too often been that those retained possessions end in missed shots. Fresno State has shot the 34th-most three-pointers in the country so far, but has only connected on 31.6% of them, which ranks 240th. That’s a bad combination.

Instead, they should consider going inside to Grimes more against Cal Poly, as the senior is shooting 60% on two-pointers and the Mustangs have been susceptible inside the arc. A secondary benefit of working the ball into the paint is a higher likelihood of drawing fouls. The Mustangs put their opponents on the line a lot, so the Bulldogs should look to exploit that.

The battle on the boards should be pretty even on this end, with Fresno State holding a slight edge with Grimes, Robinson, and Aguir Agau. Overall, the Bulldogs should have a good offensive game against Cal Poly’s porous D.

ON CAL POLY’S POSSESSIONS…

The Mustangs are a better shooting squad than their record would indicate. Their team three-point percentage of 38% ranks 30th in the country. But perhaps that’s a product of a small sample size—Cal Poly ranks in the bottom 50 for three-point attempts. The Mustangs go inside more often, but shoot well under 50% on two-pointers. Smith may want to think about giving his shooters the green light to launch from long range.

Cal Poly has been generally careless with the ball, but they are fortunate to face a Fresno State defense that has seemed uninterested in forcing turnovers this season. The Bulldogs are one of the ten worst teams in the country at getting their opponents to cough up the ball. But while the Mustangs may lose fewer possessions to turnovers, don’t expect them to get extra shots from second chance opportunities. Cal Poly gets very few offensive rebounds, while Fresno State has been slightly above-average on the defensive boards.

The Mustangs shoot just 63.5% at the line, but maybe they’ll get a boost simply by playing Fresno State. While it’s true that the Bulldogs have a poor defensive free throw rate, they’ve also had some incredibly bad luck. Opponents are shooting nearly 77% from the stripe against them, which is one of the dozen highest marks in the country.

DPI PREDICTION: FRESNO STATE 79, CAL POLY 71

The Dieckhoff Power Index projects that the Bulldogs will finally get off the schneid, predicting an eight-point victory for Fresno State. This is roughly in keeping with projections from KenPom, Haslametrics, and T-Rank, with all three metrics predicting a margin of victory between five and seven points. The DPI predicts a higher-scoring game than the other metrics, however, mostly owing to the defensive struggles that each team has had so far.

Don’t be surprised if this one turns out to be a sloppy foul-fest, but in the end, the Bulldogs are a rare favorite in this game.

Andrew is a current USBWA member, covering college basketball for multiple outlets, including Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.

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