Tag: FPI

What is ESPN’s FPI for each opponent on Penn State’s 2021 schedule?

ESPN got the ball rolling with its freshly minted batch FPI rankings for the 2021 college football season. We may still be wrapping up spring practices around the country, but it is never too early to take a look at the upcoming fall, right? ESPN’s …

ESPN got the ball rolling with its freshly minted batch FPI rankings for the 2021 college football season. We may still be wrapping up spring practices around the country, but it is never too early to take a look at the upcoming fall, right?

ESPN’s initial FPI for 2021 viewed Penn State favorably with a top 10 ranking, but what about the rest of the teams appearing on Penn State’s 2021 schedule? Where do they all land in the first FPI of 2021?

We’ll rank each Penn State opponent based on their FPI preseason ranking. To see the full football schedule, you can check it out here.

See where Penn State lands in ESPN’s latest power index rankings

We should note that one of Penn State’s opponents does not have an FPI. Villanova, as an FCS program, does not receive an FPI ranking in this ESPN metric.

We will also note that Alabama has the highest FPI at 28.0 and New Mexico State has the lowest FPI at -33.3. This should hopefully give you an idea of the range being covered in this ranking. Penn State carried a 14.9 FPI in the initial index for the 2021 season.

Where the Big 12 ranked in the ESPN’s preseason Football Power Index

A look at each Big 12 team’s Football Power Index ranking.

With spring wrapping up for some teams around the country, preseason polls are just around the corner. The Football Power Index provided by ESPN is no different. On Tuesday they released their preseason FPI poll for all 130 teams in Division I.

Last season’s final FPI poll finished with the Oklahoma Sooners finishing at No. 4 with the Texas Longhorns right behind them at No. 6, and Iowa State Cyclones at No. 10. This year there were a total of seven conference schools inside the top 25 in the preseason poll.

Sooners Wire looks at each Big 12 school’s ranking with the initial FPI, Oklahoma checks in first with a ranking of No. 2.

See where Penn State lands in ESPN’s latest power index rankings

The Nittany Lions are in a position to make some noise this season after a disappointing 2020 campaign.

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We are still months away from opening kickoff for Penn State football, but according to ESPN’s latest power index rankings, the Nittany Lions could surprise some people this season. Penn State came in at No. 10 on the rankings list that was released on Tuesday.

It should come as no surprise that the defending champion Alabama Crimson Tide rank at the top of the list. Oklahoma and Clemson round out the top three.

Ohio State is the only other Big Ten program in the top 10, coming in at No. 5. Wisconsin (15th), Iowa (23rd), and Indiana (25th) finish out the rest of Big Ten teams that were put in the top 25.

You might be asking yourself, what in the world is a power index?

Developed in 2013, it was designed to “measure team strength and predict game and season outcomes going forward.” The goal of this index isn’t necessarily to rank each team, according to ESPN, but rather be used as a predictor for games and season outcomes.

According to this year’s preseason rankings, the index predicts the Nittany Lions to win 8.6 games this season and gives them a 10.5-percent chance to win the Big Ten Conference and a 7.3-percent chance to make the College Football Playoff.

ESPN acknowledges that preseason rankings can have their flaws since there’s so many components built into making the preseason list. In 2020, Penn State was ranked No. 5 on the preseason index. After a brutal 0-5 start, the Nittany Lions salvaged their season by winning their last four games and ended up finishing 24th in the FPI rankings.

If we take the total wins for Penn State from 2016-2020, the average will tell you this team could surpass that expected 8.6 game win mark. Penn State is averaging 9.2 wins over the last five seasons, which includes the outlier from last season of only four wins.

Head coach James Franklin has said that the COVID-19 pandemic played a huge factor in their struggles throughout the 2020 season, so perhaps a full offseason of spring practices and a bit more normalcy will get Penn State back on track as one of the top programs in the country.

Follow Nittany Lions Wire on Twitter and like us on Facebook for continuing Penn State coverage and discussion.

Penn State Blue-White game preview: 5 questions for the offense

Michigan football favored in two remaining games in ESPN FPI

Though the Wolverines keep backsliding, there are two games on the schedule that Michigan football is still expected to win.

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Michigan football is in dire straits after yet another loss, this time to the hands of Wisconsin.

Unlike MSU and Indiana, where Michigan was a preseason favorite in the matchup, the Badgers were always expected to beat the Wolverines, but given the 49-11 loss, it feels like a full debacle in Ann Arbor.

Up next, the maize and blue are favored again, this time with a Saturday night contest against Rutgers on the way. The Scarlet Knights look improved, but the Wolverines continue to be the odds-on winner. Between that and Maryland, those are the only two remaining games on the schedule that ESPN FPI has Michigan winning. That includes the reeling Penn State Nittany Lions, a team that’s currently winless, a game in which the Wolverines chances have actually decreased, despite PSU being 0-4 at this juncture.

So here’s what ESPN FPI sees as the likelihood of Michigan football winning the rest of its games.

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Michigan win probability up in two remaining games per ESPN FPI

Where the advanced analytics predict the Wolverines to be after each game of the remaining schedule.

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So far, ESPN FPI has been mostly right about Michigan football.

It predicted a Michigan win in the preseason against Minnesota and before the Indiana game last week, it said the Hoosiers were the favorites. But the loss to rival Michigan State still remains inexplicable, both via the preseason prediction as well as the week of the game.

So how does the schedule play out from here?

The advanced analytics say that Michigan has the toughest remaining schedule, and ESPN hasn’t revised any of the remaining won/loss predictions. However, the Wolverines did increase their probability in two of the five remaining games, including one unlikely contest — you know the one — at the end of the schedule.

With Wisconsin on deck, here’s how the ESPN FPI predicts the rest of the Wolverines season to play out.

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Texas Longhorns have second-best chance to win Big 12 per FPI

According to the computers the Texas Longhorns have the second-best odds to win the Big 12 Conference. So who is their competition?

We are down to four games left in the Texas Longhorns 2020 campaign. Continue reading “Texas Longhorns have second-best chance to win Big 12 per FPI”

Miami Dolphins steadily climbing up 2020 season forecasts

Miami Dolphins steadily climbing up 2020 season forecasts

The Miami Dolphins are 1-2 and there’s plenty of cause for optimism for the Dolphins has the team continues to find their identity as a football team. But how do the forecasts favor the Dolphins?

ESPN’s Football Power Index simulates each remaining game of the season 10,000 time to produce average win-loss totals for all 32 franchises. As of the start of Week 4 in the NFL season, the Dolphins are forecasted to finish the season with 6.2 wins. That figure is better than 10 other teams across the NFL and serves as a big improvement for Miami based on the early-season expectations for Miami.

Ahead of the season, Miami was generally regarded as a bottom-five roster in the NFL, but with the horrid play of the New York Jets and Miami’s impressive team win against Jacksonville, the Dolphins appear primed to outperform their early season predictions and rise out of the bottom few teams in the league.

Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight has the Dolphins also currently projected for 6 wins. But the big difference is the rest of the league. Miami is currently forecasted to own a better record than eight teams and tied with four others in the standings. In the preseason forecast for FiveThirtyEight, the Dolphins were projected to only be better than five teams across the league.

Of course, getting additional wins is going to be critical for the Dolphins’ cause on that front — and Week 4 is about as tough of a test and you’ll find. If the Dolphins could somehow pry a win away from the Seahawks in Week 4, they will be well on their way to earning added respect and continue to outproduce even the updated forecasts for the Dolphins’ season.

Florida Gators move up two spots in ESPN’s latest FPI rankings

Week 1 of Southeastern Conference football is officially in the books after a wild opening weekend for the prestigious league.

Week 1 of Southeastern Conference football is officially in the books after a wild opening weekend for the prestigious league which saw close games, high-scoring affairs and even an unexpected upset of last season’s national champions.

The Florida Gators fared rather well, though their defense left something to be desired in a 51-35 shootout with the Ole Miss Rebels. However, in the SEC a win is a win, and the Gators upped their record to 1-0 on the season while also raising their stock in some rankings.

ESPN released its latest College Football Power Index 2020 numbers on Sunday — which includes Big Ten teams — and UF got a little bit of a boost from its performance on Saturday, moving up two spots from No. 11 to No. 9. The move essentially leapfrogged Florida over the UCF Knights and the LSU Tigers, the latter of whom suffered an upset at the hands of the Mississippi State Bulldogs this weekend and dropped six spots.

The SEC only has four teams in the top-10, with the Alabama Crimson Tide holding pat in second place, while the Georgia Bulldogs moved up one spot to No. 6 and the Auburn Tigers moved up two spots to No. 7. LSU now sits at No. 13 with the Texas A&M Aggies at No. 19 to wrap up conference schools in the top-25.

Here is the latest ESPN FPI top-25 with SEC teams in bold.

1. Ohio State
2. Alabama
3. Clemson
4. Wisconsin
5. Penn State
6. Georgia
7. Auburn
8. Texas
9. Florida
10. UCF
11. Notre Dame
12. Oklahoma
13. LSU
14. Virginia Tech
15. Michigan
16. BYU
17. Miami
18. Indiana
19. Texas A&M
20. Oklahoma State
21. North Carolina
22. Northwestern
23. TCU
24. Iowa
25. Minnesota

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Locked on Longhorns Podcast: ‘Victory Monday and Sam Ehlinger’

The Locked on Longhorns Podcast discusses the big win over UTEP on Saturday. Plus Texas’ latest FPI rankings and B.J. Foster.

The Locked on Longhorns Podcast returns for a victory Monday following a 59-3 victory over the UTEP Miners. Sam Ehlinger got off to a hot start in this one from the first play. He found Joshua Moore on a 78-yard catch and run to get the party started for the Texas offense. In his first game with Mike Yurcich calling the plays, Sam set career highs in yards and touchdowns in one half. How much better can Ehlinger be in 2020?

ESPN updated their FPI and win probabilities. How high is the ceiling for the Texas Longhorns in 2020? In a look around the Big 12, how did the four winning teams look? What is going on in Lubbock as the Red Raiders squeaked out a win. The Sun Belt was anything but a Fun Belt as they defeated three Big 12 teams on Saturday. How much did the losses hurt Iowa State and Kansas State?

An update on B.J. Foster prior to Tom Herman meeting with the media. The duo go through the Foster timeline from Saturday to Monday morning. Most of the Big 12 Conference will be on a bye week. Baylor and Oklahoma State will open their seasons after COVID-19 cases ruined their opportunity to start on time.

Monday Big 12 Morning Rush: Latest FPI favors Texas over Oklahoma

The latest Big 12 Conference headlines in the morning rush. ESPN, USA TODAY Sports and Twitter provide the headlines. UT over OU in FPI?

It is game week as we move closer to opening kickoff on Saturday. With the arrival of football season, there is no shortage of stories surrounding the Big 12 Conference. On Monday’s Big 12 morning rush we look at headlines from ESPN, USA TODAY Sports and Twitter.

Continue reading “Monday Big 12 Morning Rush: Latest FPI favors Texas over Oklahoma”