Tag: Football Outsiders

History suggests Rams’ 2019 regression is nothing to panic about

Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric shows the Rams should be just fine in 2020.

After a decade of missing the playoffs and finishing below .500, the Rams finally turned things around in 2017 after hiring Sean McVay. They went on to make the playoffs two years in a row and even reached the Super Bowl in 2018, but then things went awry last season.

The Rams regressed a bit, going from 13-3 two years ago to only 9-7 in 2019, missing the playoffs for the first time under McVay. Some fans are feeling a little panicked and analysts are quickly hopping off the Rams bandwagon, but history suggests the Rams will most likely be just fine in 2020.

Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders shared a graphic this week showing examples of teams who were in similar situations as the Rams are currently in. The graphic lists teams who finished in the top five of DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) – a metric created by Football Outsiders to measure a team’s success on each play compared to league average – for two years before falling to somewhere around 10th to 16th.

The Rams were second in DVOA in 2017 and 2018, but fell all the way to 12th last season. There have been 11 similar cases in the past, and in only three of those instances, the team regressed further in Year 4 after a poor performance in Year 3.

As Schatz points out, none of the teams collapsed and fell outside the top half of the league in that fourth season. Some analysts are predicting a major drop-off from the Rams in 2020 after a difficult offseason, but Schatz’s research suggests that’s highly unlikely.

Of course, the Rams still have to take care of business and past history isn’t guaranteed to repeat itself. They still have to sort out the offensive line, improve on the ground and get better play out of Jared Goff. And on defense, Brandon Staley has to get the most out of his unproven players at inside linebacker and at edge rusher because those are two of the most uncertain spots on the roster.

Playing in arguably the best division in football won’t make life any easier for the Rams, either, but they still have the talent to finish above .500 and push for the playoffs – especially with seven postseason berths now in each conference.

It’s just a matter of executing on the field and improving in their weakest areas.

Football Outsiders makes a bold prediction about Bucs WR Tyler Johnson

See what bold prediction Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders made about Bucs fifth-round pick Tyler Johnson.

Entering the 2020 NFL draft, it was clear the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ top priority was finding help up front for newly-signed quarterback Tom Brady. The soon-to-be 43-year-old was sacked just 27 times in New England last year with the Patriots, while the Bucs allowed former quarterback Jameis Winston to be sacked 47 times.

Ultimately, the Bucs got what they wanted in round one, which was one of the draft’s prized tackles (Iowa OT Tristan Wirfs at No. 13). The Bucs added a potential star defender in round two in Minnesota safety Antoine Winfield Jr. But, the young safety wasn’t the only Golden Gopher Tampa Bay picked up in the draft. They used their fifth-round pick to take Winfield’s Minnesota teammate, wide receiver Tyler Johnson.

While the Bucs have the luxury of sporting two of the league’s top receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, the end to the 2019 season proved the Bucs needed a reliable third option for Brady. Some view Johnson as a potential draft gem, and Aaron Schatz, editor of Football Outsiders, made this bold prediction about Johnson over at ESPN.com.

Per Schatz:

“Fifth-round pick Tyler Johnson will become Tom Brady’s new favorite slot receiver for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He won’t put up the numbers of Julian Edelman and Wes Welker, not with all the competition for targets in Tampa Bay, but he’ll gain Brady’s trust. Johnson is a former high school quarterback who runs crisp routes with vision and toughness.”

It’s certainly a bold prediction, but not one that’s entirely unfounded. While Johnson may be just a rookie, tight end Rob Gronkowski (who the Bucs traded for to reunite with Brady) had a stellar game as a rookie that established him as Brady’s guy. Johnson definitely has the talent and skill set to do the same.

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The Bucs’ biggest roster hole post-draft might surprise you

Scott Spratt of Football Outsiders talks about the Bucs’ biggest roster hole.

The Buccaneers are ready to take the league by storm in 2020, with a fresh new look and swagger about them. A statement like that has been more of a pipe dream over the past decade, but when you have a six-time Super Bowl champion like Tom Brady as your quarterback, the sky’s the limit.

But while Brady seemed to be the big winner when it came to the Bucs’ 2020 NFL draft haul, Scott Spratt of Football Outsiders says there’s still one major roster hole for Tampa Bay: backup quarterback.

Per Spratt:

“All of the Bucs’ eggs are in the Tom Brady basket, and though Brady is obviously skilled enough to shoulder that burden, he will be 43 years old in September. Last year, the Saints went 5-0 with Teddy Bridgewater as the starter when Drew Brees injured his thumb. The Bucs have the overall roster talent to do something similar if Brady misses time, but current backup Blaine Gabbert might not be up to the task. Gabbert has not improved his efficiency since his fall from grace as a former top pick, finishing with poor minus-25.4%, minus-26.4% and minus-35.5% DVOA rates from 2016 to ’18 before missing 2019 because of a dislocated shoulder.”

Gabbert missed all of last season with a shoulder injury, but had he been healthy it would’ve been interesting to see if he’d gotten the start at some point, especially given how much Jameis Winston struggled at times. Remember, the quarterback selected after Winston in the 2015 draft, Marcus Mariota, was replaced early last season by former first-round pick Ryan Tannehill, who led the Titans to the AFC Championship Game. Not saying Gabbert would’ve done the same, but he may have provided a little mid-season spark for the Bucs. If he can stay healthy, he’ll be a serviceable backup to Brady for sure.

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2020 Draft: ESPN says Cowboys need help on DL, secondary but should avoid LB

The biggest need in Dallas is at safety, according to this year’s draft guide, but the Cowboys could also use some help at defensive end.

The crew over at Football Outsiders has put together their annual draft guide for ESPN. In this latest edition, they examine all 32 teams and distill the current class of prospects down to arrive at each team’s biggest need, along with someone who might fit that bill. They also identify a “quiet need” for each squad and take a look at a position that each club shouldn’t waste their time (or a pick) on.

The Worldwide Leader has the compete guide posted for their ESPN+ subscribers; the Cowboys’ portion of it is right here. The Football Outsiders are on board with what most fans likely see as the team’s most glaring deficiency, and they are aligned with many when it comes to a secondary priority. But one position that’s gotten some buzz during the team’s virtual interviews is “not a need” at all, according to the guide.

Biggest need: Safety

“The Cowboys have used free agency to fill the bulk of their glaring holes, signing Gerald McCoy and Dontari Poe at defensive tackle, Anthony Brown at cornerback, and HaHa Clinton-Dix at safety. They should use the draft to fill the holes their roster will likely have in 2021, 2022, and 2023, when their bigger recent contracts for players such as Amari Cooper and (eventually) Dak Prescott will make it difficult to do so in free agency. Safety should be a big priority, with both Clinton-Dix (signed to a one-year deal) and fellow starter Xavier Woods hitting free agency in 2021.”

Football Outsiders names Alabama’s Xavier McKinney as a prospect who would fill in that blank nicely for the Cowboys. The junior, who is skipping his senior year in Tuscaloosa after a 2019 season that earned him first-team All-SEC honors, will almost certainly be a first-round draft pick, and could well be available to Dallas with the 17th overall selection.

Quiet need: Pass rush

“DeMarcus Lawrence is one of just 13 players with 30 or more sacks the past three seasons, and his total of 50 pass pressures last season, according to Sports Info Solutions, shows that he is not slowing down, despite his diminished total of five sacks in 2019. But Lawrence’s individual success hasn’t elevated the Cowboys’ defense to pass-rushing excellence. They’ve finished 14th or worse in adjusted sack rate each of the past three years, and they lost both Robert Quinn (37 pass pressures) and Michael Bennett (24) in free agency. Aldon Smith could help if he rediscovers his early-decade form, but the team should still look to add pieces in the draft.”

According to the guide, Notre Dame’s Julian Okwara may be a name to watch here. Okwara may not be readily familiar to the casual fan, but his collegiate pedigree means he’s almost certainly on the radar of head coach Mike McCarthy, who has shown to have a proclivity for picking Golden Domers in the draft. He’s no sleeper, though; Pro Football Focus lists Okwara as the 28th-best prospect in this year’s draft crop.

Not a need: Linebacker

“Linebackers Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch can be overlooked on a team full of stars, but they both have Pro Bowl resumes, despite being 24 years old. Smith allowed an excellent 14.1% broken tackle rate in 2019, and Vander Esch allowed a minuscule 6.6% broken tackle rate in his healthier 2018, the second-lowest rate among full-time players at the position (Bobby Wagner, 5.4%). Veteran Sean Lee backs them up and plays when the Cowboys need a third linebacker.”

Dallas has spent time virtually with Oklahoma’s Kenneth Murray and Wisconsin’s Zack Baun, leading many to wonder if the Cowboys might stock their shelves at the position out of concern over their current corps. Smith overcame a horrific injury coming out of college, Vander Esch missed much of the 2019 campaign with a worrisome neck malady, and Lee has a long history on the injury report.

Of the players the Cowboys are known to have interviewed, defensive ends top the list with 10 prospects. For what it’s worth, the team has met (either virtually or in-person) with nine cornerbacks, eight defensive tackles, seven wide receivers, and six safeties (plus fewer players at every other position). Whether those meetings were indicative of genuine interest, mere due diligence, or possible smokescreening tactics remains to be seen and may never be truly known.

The 2020 NFL Draft kicks off Thursday night.

Cowboys were among oldest teams in 2019, but with a special catch

The 2019 Cowboys finished the regular season as one of the oldest teams in the NFL, but one veteran is responsible for much of that curve.

There’s a youth movement in the NFL. But the Cowboys seem to be trying hard to buck that trend, especially in one specific unit.

Football Outsiders last week released its 2019 report digging into the age of each roster in the league. As they have with every season since 2006, they didn’t just calculate the average age of all the the guys who are technically on the team. They charted the players’ snap-weighted age; that is, they weighted the age of each player according the number of snaps he played in the regular season.

It makes sense: if the aging veterans and hotshot rookies on a squad mainly stand around on the sidelines, it doesn’t really say anything meaningful about a team’s “average age,” at least not in the way that people usually imply. That first-year quarterback who actually starts and plays the whole season? That definitely counts toward a team being considered “young.” But a long-in-the-tooth third-string emergency backup who only ever holds a clipboard shouldn’t skew the team toward being called “old.”

The Cowboys as a whole, in 2019, were the sixth-oldest team in the league, with an average snap-weighted age (SWA) of 26.7. The league average was 26.4, a number nearly all 32 teams were fairly tightly clustered around.

Where it starts to get interesting is when SWA is broken down by unit. The SWA of the Dallas offense in 2019 was 27.0, just two-tenths of a year above the league average. That ranked 13th. The defense skewed even more toward the middle of the pack compared to the rest of the NFL; the Cowboys’ SWA on the defensive side was 26.2, 18th place against the average of 26.3.

But special teams? That unit might as well qualify for early-bird specials and senior matinee discounts.

The Cowboys’ special teamers in 2019 were the third-oldest bunch in the NFL with a SWA of 26.9. That figure is a full year above the league average. Special teams play is generally thought of as a young man’s game (think gunners), but many teams do anchor that phase of the game with a greybeard kicker…

…or a 39-year-old long snapper.

L.P. Ladouceur will embark on his 16th season as a pro in 2020. His age (he celebrated his 39th birthday in March) certainly sets the curve for the rest of the special teams players in Dallas, but his is a position where longevity is a plus, not a hindrance, and extra experience is definitely a plus.

The Cowboys special teams unit got slightly (but suddenly) older late last season with the swapping of Brett Maher for Kai Forbath, as Forbath is two years older. He and new signee Greg Zuerlein are both 32, so the winner of their competition for the upcoming season’s kicking duties won’t change that number for Dallas. With punter Chris Jones turning 31 years old, there’s a good chance that the Cowboys will remain one of the oldest special teams units in the league under John Fassel’s leadership.

The defense may see their SWA rank slide toward the older end of the list moving forward. Yes, Michael Bennett turned 34 just a few weeks after joining the Cowboys last season, but in his nine games with the team, he played just 40% of the defensive snaps. Linebacker Sean Lee will turn 34 before the season begins. Gerald McCoy is 32. Dontari Poe will blow out 30 candles before Week 1; all three will likely see high snap counts and will definitely ratchet up the SWA in 2020.

Of course, any discussion of the Cowboys and their age in 2019 has to include Jason Witten. At 37 and playing the vast majority of the team’s offensive snaps last year, he made Dallas the oldest team at tight end last season. Take him out of the equation, though, and the Cowboys come in under the league’s average SWA at every single offensive position group.

Granted, youth doesn’t automatically translate to a better football team: New England was by far the oldest team in 2019- in all three phases- and they were still, by and large, the Patriots. And three of the four youngest teams- Jacksonville, Cleveland, and Miami- didn’t really scare anybody. So maybe SWA is just interesting trivia, fodder for bar bets.

Still, 2020’s Cowboys offense should feel a lot younger. Fans will no doubt be encouraged by that. The defense may feel slightly older. Maybe some additional veteran presence there is a good thing.

In any case, the special teams will still be wearing their pants too high and yelling at whippersnappers to get off their lawn.

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Saints offensive line carrying rare continuity, elite performance into 2020 season

The New Orleans Saints offensive line measured among the best in the NFL by Football Outsiders, but their health and continuity is important

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Just how good is the New Orleans Saints offense line? After re-signing left guard Andrus Peat (a two-time Pro Bowl alternate), they’re set to return all five starters from lats year’s unit. That’s an impressive feat in itself, but it means a lot more after you dig into what the analytics have to say about offensive line performance around the league.

Fortunately, analysts like the crew at Football Outsiders are on the cutting edge of quantifying how well the big blockers up front play. The Football Outsiders staff contextualizes their main grades well with a number of different factors, but we’ll be focusing on two key categories to determine how the Saints perform: adjusted sack rate (reflecting performance in pass protection) and adjusted line yards (which demonstrates run blocking efficiency), which are each contextualized for factors like down, distance, and opponents.

We took things a step further and filtered the list down to the offensive lines that perform at an above-average rate in both categories. Just a dozen teams from around the NFL passed the test in both categories, achieving an adjusted sack rate of lower than 7% as well as an adjusted line yards average higher than 4.26. Here’s how the list shook out (ranked by an average of each team’s placement in the two metrics):

  1. Dallas Cowboys: 4.3% adjusted sack rate, 4.91 adjusted line yards
  2. New Orleans Saints: 4.7% ASR, 4.92 ALY
  3. Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders: 5.9% ASR, 4.63 ALY
  4. Baltimore Ravens: 6.0% ASR, 4.73 ALY
  5. New England Patriots: 5.3% ASR, 4.49 ALY
  6. Los Angeles rams: 3.7% ASR, 4.27 ALY
  7. Green Bay Packers: 6.4% ASR, 4.63 ALY
  8. Indianapolis Colts: 6.0% ASR, 4.41 ALY
  9. Minnesota Vikings: 6.7% ASR, 4.60 ALY
  10. Los Angeles Chargers: 6.2% ASR, 4.37 ALY
  11. San Francisco 49ers: 6.9% ASR, 4.53 ALY
  12. Philadelphia Eagles: 6.4% ASR, 4.34 ALY

That places the Saints right at the top, in a tier of their own with the Cowboys. Behind them are the Ravens and Raiders, with the Patriots, Rams, and Packers clustered together. The rest of the group is fairly evenly matched.

So how do the seven best units compare moving into 2020? Four of them are either replacing starters who retired or left in free agency, or working players back into the starting lineup after their 2019 season ended with injuries. The Saints are one of just three teams (joined by the Raiders and Rams) projected to start the 2020 season with the same starting five that they kicked off with in 2019. Of course that could change for all teams after the draft and once injuries start to take their toll, but at this early stage the Saints should rightfully be seen as the NFL’s best offensive line.

The continuity the Saints enjoy will be important, doubly so in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. With teams expected to have less practice time than usual during the offseason, any offensive lines adding new pieces could have a steeper learning curve once games begin. By keeping the same starters together with the same position coaches, the Saints should have an immediate edge not just on other elite units around the league, but the less-impressive lines already playing catch-up.

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Play-action chief among Rams key tendencies Cowboys must survive

The Rams have specialized in play-action passing under head coach Sean McVay. The Cowboys will need to adapt in their Week 15 matchup.

The Dallas Cowboys enter their Week 15 matchup against the Los Angeles Rams on a three-game losing streak. The Rams however are on a streak of their own, winning two straight and coming off a 28-12 blowout victory against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 14. The Cowboys currently lead the NFC East with a record of 6-7, while the Rams are fighting for a wildcard birth in the NFC West at 8-5. As it stands, both teams are riding a drastically different set of circumstances regarding playoff scenarios.

When looking at the Rams in 2019, it is easy to dismissIss their accomplishments at this point in the season. One year removed from a Super Bowl appearance, many analysts pegged them as a perennial championship contender. It is fair to say they have underachieved but nonetheless, they are still a formidable opponent and as the Cowboys will find out on Sunday, they certainly have a preference when it comes to play calling.

Play-action passing

The Rams are an interesting team to study. Simply put, their entire offense runs on the core principle of setting up an effective play-action passing attack. Head coach Sean McVay has built his team around this concept and after diving into some key stats and play tendencies this becomes even more apparent. First things first though, a look at the Rams’ favorite personnel package on offense.

In the modern NFL, most teams have favored 11-personnel, which features three wide receivers on the field. The Rams are no exception, opting to use the package on 418 of their plays in 2019. According to charting from Sports Info Solutions, this accounts for 83 percent of the Rams’ totals plays this season; one of the highest rates in the league. With this in mind, it is clear to see how the Rams present themselves to opponents. But while personnel usage isn’t a mystery, the real question is, how do they approach their play-action game? One of the answers could be in their play-calling tendencies.

From an under-center look the Rams have passed the ball 176 times. But out of 476 under-center playcalls, their preference has been to run the ball (300 plays). In 2019, the Rams have rushed from under center 63 percent of the time. In this aspect the Rams have rushed at one of the highest rates, but across the league, rushing from under center is heavily favored.

Overall, the Rams have been one of the best teams at utilizing play-action in the past. In McVay’s first year as coach the Rams ranked No. 2 in play-action usage (29 percent) and averaged 8.9 yards per pass attempt via Football Outsiders. Those numbers took a jump in the following season, with the team ranking No. 1 in usage (36 percent) and No. 2 in yards per attempt at 9.4.

In 2019, the Rams’ play-action output has fallen off a bit. Heading into Week 15, they have averaged 7.8 yards on play-action passes at a rate of 27 percent. Even so, play-action still remains a crucial aspect of their game.

To recap, here is a quick review of the Rams’ offensive tendencies,

  • Favor 11-personnel (83 percent of total plays)
  • Rush 63 percent of the time from under center
  • No. 2 in pass attempts from under center (176)
  • No. 9 in play-action pass rate (average 7.8 yards)

What stands out the most from this is the rush rate from under center. Conventional wisdom would suggest the Rams rush at a high rate to make play-action passing more effective. From an analytical point of view, the data suggests this is simply not true. Some studies show play-action passes work no matter how well a team runs the football.

This chart expresses a similar notion in regards to passing from under center and rushing volume. Teams that ran more from under center did not see a boost in passing efficiency. Efficiency here is defined as Expected Points Added per pass with data from nflscrapR. EPA measures the value of a play based on down, distance to first downs and field position. If this metric serves well, then the Rams are not seeing a return on their passing investments by choosing to rush at a higher rate.

The Rams try to show the same types of offensive looks to keep opposing defenses guessing. By dressing plays to look exactly the same from an execution standpoint, in essence, it could be enough to fool unsuspecting defenses. The Cowboys’ defense has proven to be unreliable as of late, but at the very least they should be prepared for what the Rams’ offense is capable of from under center.

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