Tag: Football Outsiders

Seahawks rise in power rankings based on strength of schedule

The Seattle Seahawks have risen in Touchdown Wire’s NFL preseason power rankings based on their strength of schedule and opponents.

The Seattle Seahawks have landed at a very respectable No. 6 in Touchdown Wire’s latest NFL preseason power rankings. These rankings were compiled with a bit of a twist, however, based on each team’s strength of schedule.

Mark Schofield used Football Outsider’s Defense-adjusted Value Over Average to rank each club’s opponents and factor an average for each team. For Seattle, its Average Opponent DVOA was -1.2%.

“The big debate in Seattle right now is whether the coaching staff ‘lets Russ cook,’” Schofield writes. “Letting their talented quarterback throw more than he did in 2019 would be smart in this writer’s opinion. After all, Seattle ran the ball on 45.6% of their plays last year, sixth-most in the league.”

“But whether Russ gets to cook or not, Seattle gets a relatively easy schedule according to Football Outsiders,” Schofield continues. “Seattle squares off against the AFC East and the NFC East this year, meaning games against the New York Jets, the Miami Dolphins, the Washington Football Team, and the New York Giants.”

The Seahawks will open their season on the road in Atlanta this year, with kickoff set for 10:00 a.m. PT on Sept. 13 against the Falcons. Seattle begins its first regular-season practice week with a bonus session Monday afternoon.

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Texans start No. 23 in Touchdown Wire preseason power rankings

The Houston Texans are No. 23 in the latest Touchdown Wire preseason NFL power rankings.

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Stop if you heard this one before: the Houston Texans are bad.

The Touchdown Wire has dropped the defending AFC South champions down a few tiers throughout the offseason in their power rankings. In the latest preseason edition, Touchdown Wire went ahead and ranked all 32 NFL teams according to Football Outsiders’ “defense-adjust value over average.” As a result, the Texans were ranked 23rd overall.

Obviously, head coach/general manager Bill O’Brien’s completely skewed concepts of player value and crazy-quilt personnel moves factor heavily into this 2019 playoff team dropping off pretty severely. The Texans are projected to have a team DVOA of -3.3%, and an Average Wins projection of 7.5. All we have to add is, #FreeDeshaunWatson.

Like with how one has to ask who is “expecting” the points in expected points average, who is giving “value” in DVOA? Is it Ernie Adams or is it Avery Duncan? It kind of matters.

The Texans are the second-lowest AFC South team in the power rankings with the Jacksonville Jaguars the lowest at No. 28. Among division winners from a year ago, the Texans are the absolute lowest; the next division winner is Green Bay at No. 16.

Houston consistently beats the odds. Last year, the Indianapolis Colts were supposed to win the division and the Texans were a wild-card at best. In 2018, the Jaguars were supposed to keep control of the division. It doesn’t work with models, but the Texans find ways to will just enough ballgames to retain the AFC South. Since 2014, Houston has produced nine-win seasons or better in all but one of O’Brien’s years with the Texans, but this is the year they go 7-8-1. The Texans have won the division every year except two since 2014, but this is the year they don’t even make the playoffs, especially in a year with an expanded playoff field.

The Colts are the highest-ranked AFC South team at No. 6, and the Tennessee Titans are No. 14.

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Ravens land at No. 3 in TD Wire’s preseason power rankings

The Baltimore Ravens are projected to once again be among the NFL’s elite teams based on Football Outsiders DVOA projections

The Baltimore Ravens are among the elite teams in the NFL heading into the 2020 season after Football Outsiders’ DVOA Projections listed them as the third-best team in the league.

For those in need of a reminder, or in some cases a comprehensive answer as to just what DVOA is, it’s best the answer to come straight from the horse’s mouth.

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value over Average) is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative.

In his breakdown explaining the Ravens rank, Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar is quick to point out that (Football Outsiders) projection of a 16.4% overall DVOA and 10.0 “Average Wins” for the Ravens came before the team decided to release safety Earl Thomas, but this group is loaded enough on both sides of the ball to overcome that.

The 2019 Ravens squad was one of the best teams in the entire DVOA era, with data compiling beginning in 1985. The Ravens finished with a whopping 41.8% a year ago. As per Farrar, “this third-place finish in overall DVOA for 2020 estimates a massive regression.”

But being projected to not finish top of the heap is not something to be taken as a sign of imminent failure. As Farrar closes by saying, “If Lamar Jackson continues to take positive steps as a pure quarterback, the Ravens might finish first in DVOA again — and perhaps there’s a Super Bowl in their near future.”

For those interested in learning more about DVOA, you can find a far more detailed explanation here.

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Where do Dolphins draft picks land in Football Outsiders’ forecast?

Where do Dolphins draft picks land in Football Outsiders’ forecast?

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The intrigue of the Miami Dolphins’ rebuilding project doesn’t end just because the team has made their slew of draft selections in the 2020 NFL Draft. Yes, Miami added a bunch of talent and was able to double down on that influx with a good deal of spending in free agency as well. But this rebuild is only just now getting started — because the Dolphins are scheduled to make two selections in three of the first four rounds of the 2021 NFL Draft as well.

The Dolphins own the Houston Texans’ 1st- and 2nd-round picks courtesy of the Laremy Tunsil deal from last August — and the team will also hold two 4th-round selections courtesy of the recent swap with the Las Vegas Raiders. There’s a lot to look forward to next spring with the upcoming NFL Draft and there’s also sure to be plenty of drama as the upcoming NFL Draft order plays out. Where will the Dolphins pick?

According to the most recent Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings, the Miami Dolphins won’t have to wait long to make their picks. The DVOA forecasts for the Dolphins to be the third worst team in football, resulting in the team forecasting to pick 3rd overall. That’s quite the pessimistic outcome for the Dolphins, but it is also half the story — as Miami has a very serious interest in rooting against the Houston Texans. Houston, according to Football Outsiders, forecasts as the 23rd best team in football; meaning the Dolphins would own two top-10 picks in the 2021 NFL Draft. Not only that, the team would own four picks in the first 42 selections.

So while Football Outsiders’ forecast of the Dolphins’ 2020 outlook isn’t great, there’s at least a silver lining to how Miami’s season is modeled. And, at the end of the day, they play the games on the field for a reason — the Dolphins will have every opportunity to once again outplay their expectations. Should it happen two seasons in a row, it might be time for everyone to readjust their scope of how Miami’s coaching and intangibles can impact their ability on the field.

Browns fare poorly in Football Outsiders DVOA projections for 2020

The Browns are barely above the Jets

Opinions on the fate of the 2020 Cleveland Browns are generally middle-of-the-pack, with the win projections and power ranking slots usually between 14th and 20th. While that might be a little disappointing, those are realistic expectations for a team with a rookie head coach, at least two new starters on the offensive line and several defensive question marks.

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The analysts at Football Outsiders are less optimistic about the fate of Kevin Stefanski’s first Browns team. In their annual projection of DVOA (courtesy Touchdown Wire) or defense-adjusted value over average, the Browns rank just 24th entering the season.

Cleveland’s value of minus-5.1 is barely better than the Broncos or Jets, two teams generally perceived to be well behind the Browns in the AFC playoff picture. The defense is the sticking point, and the recent injuries in the secondary don’t help,

The Browns are projected with a team DVOA of -5.1%, with the offense ahead of the defense, and 7.5 Average Wins. These projections were made before safety Grant Delpit’s season-ending Achilles tendon injury, and the possibility that cornerback Greedy Williams could miss serious time with a shoulder injury.

The breakdowns of how exactly Football Outsiders compiles the DVOA and the projected win totals are included in the Touchdown Wire explanation.

Panthers 2020 NFL playoff odds: How bad are they?

2020 has already been a brutal year for Carolina Panthers fans.

2020 has already been a brutal year for Carolina Panthers fans. No NFL team experienced more turnover this offseason and no fanbase lost more long-time franchise stars. With Cam Newton, Luke Kuechly, Greg Olsen, Mario Addison and a host of others no longer on the roster, things look grim going into the new season.

How bad are they? According to a new projection by Aaron Schatz at Football Outsiders (via ESPN), the Panthers have the worst odds of any team to make the playoffs this year at only 14%. Their chances of winning the NFC South are awful too, coming in at 3.9%.

Schatz says their schedule is especially daunting.

“Then there’s the schedule. The other three teams in the NFC South all rank in the top dozen of our DVOA projections, with New Orleans at No. 1. The AFC West and NFC North aren’t the strongest divisions in the league, but none of the teams is really a pushover. Of the other teams near the bottom of our projections, the only one on Carolina’s schedule is Washington in Week 16.”

It gets better. That Washington team has beaten the Panthers each of the last two seasons despite having significantly less talent on its roster. That may no longer be the case, plus they’re now being led by Ron Rivera – who has more inside info on this team than any coach in the league.

If the Panthers lose that particular matchup again in December this rebuild just might take a little bit longer than expected.

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Football Outsiders ranks the Lions as most likely team to go from worst-to-first

The fine print isn’t so bullish on the Lions as it is more of a downer on the whole division

In what’s becoming an annual tradition, the analysts at Football Outsiders have tabbed the Detroit Lions as the most likely NFL team to pull off the vaunted worst-to-first improvement in 2020. Via ESPN, Football Outsiders ranks the Lions No. 1 on the list.

Before you get too excited and start hanging playoff banners in your Lions-themed living room, even the FO analysts themselves don’t exactly sound too confident in their pick here. They lead off the ESPN piece by noting the Lions were also their pick for this a year ago, when Detroit stumbled to 3-12-1. They also note that no team pulled off the impressive worst-to-first in 2019.

The further explanation is even more of a cold shower, not just on Detroit but the entire NFC North,

This doesn’t mean we’re projecting a great season from the Lions. Our mean projection for the Lions has them as a very average team. We’re high on the Lions because our mean projections have every team in the NFC North as a very average team. All four teams win the division somewhere between 23% and 27% of our simulations.

Basically, Detroit’s projected improvement on defense and a full 16-game season from Matthew Stafford close the gap with the Vikings, Bears and Packers, all of whom Football Outsiders project to be worse than they were a year ago. Maybe being the NFC North team that did the least amount of self-inflicted roster damage in the offseason is the key for the Lions.

Browns offensive line ranked dead last in blocking for runs to the wide left

It’s an area where new LT Jedrick Wills can help right away

Nick Chubb finished second in the NFL in rushing yards in 2019. The Browns running back was incredible at consistently turning out big runs and grinding for extra yards.

Chubb’s feat is even more impressive when you consider an incredible analytical study from Football Outsiders. Their game charting and evaluation determined that no offensive line was worse at run blocking on runs wide of left tackle than the Browns.

Cleveland’s run blocking was generally quite good, but the combination of left tackle Greg Robinson and the tight end sometimes flanking him, primarily Demetrius Harris, was simply dreadful at run blocking on runs that went outside the tackle box to the left. The Browns created just 2.13 adjusted line yards on those runs, handily the worst in the league.

That’s a big reason why the Browns are excited to have first-round rookie Jedrick Wills as the new starting left tackle. Robinson was a league-average pass protector but has always struggled mightily as a run blocker. Wills should bring a much higher ceiling to both facets of playing left tackle.

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LeSean McCoy had one of the best RB seasons of decade with Bills

Buffalo Bills RB LeSean McCoy has top-10 season of last decade.

LeSean McCoy left the Bills prior to last season looking as if he had lost a step. But when Shady arrived, it certainly appeared Buffalo got a steal in trading for him. His production for the team was nothing short of excellent.

From 2015-2018, McCoy helped the Bills establish themselves as one of the primer rushing teams in the NFL. Of all those years, Football Outsiders via ESPN pegged one of McCoy’s years with the Bills as one of the best of the best of the past decade of NFL football.

In 2016, McCoy had a Bills career-high 1,267 rushing yards, 14 total touchdowns and averaged 5.4 yards per carry. For that effort, Shady’s 2016 season was tabbed as the ninth-best running back season of the 2010s using Football Outsiders DYAR formula (Defensive-adjusted yards above replacement).

Here’s how Shady’s stellar season is broken down:

9. LeSean McCoy, 2016 Bills (456 DYAR)
The 28-year-old McCoy was outstanding in his second year with Buffalo, averaging 5.4 yards per carry (third among qualifying running backs) and 7.1 yards per reception with an 88% catch rate. He also scored 14 touchdowns: 13 on the ground, 1 through the air. But what really pumps this season up is a very difficult schedule of opposing run defenses, adjustments for which add nearly 100 rushing DYAR to McCoy’s total. Half of McCoy’s games came against teams ranked seventh or higher in run defense DVOA, with AFC East foes the Jets and Patriots both in the top five.

The Bills certainly got the better of that trade for McCoy, which only cost Buffalo linebacker Kiko Alonso. Interestingly, McCoy actually appears on this list twice. At No, 7, his 2013 season with the Eagles appears on the rankings as well.

In regard to his Bills seasons, especially early on, one has to mention is offensive line. That grouping was anchored by two Pro Bowl and excellent talents in Richie Incognito and Eric Wood. They played their part, too.

Leading this list overall is a very recent season, Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey from 2019. He edges out Texans running back Adrian Foster from 2010 and Saints running back Alvin Kamara from 2017, respectively.

 

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Seahawks 2013 squad still sits atop list of best teams of the decade

Four Seattle Seahawks rosters have made Aaron Schatz’s list for ESPN of the best NFL teams of the decade.

With a lull in the action before the hopeful start of training camps at the end of July, Aaron Schatz has updated his special to ESPN detailing his best NFL teams and players of the decade following the close of the 2019 season.

After his adjustments, the 2013 Seahawks still sit atop his list of the best clubs of their time at No. 1 overall.

“The 2013 Seahawks featured the No. 10 best defense in DVOA history (including playoffs),” Schatz writes. “They also ranked seventh on offense and fifth on special teams for the regular season. Seattle’s three losses all came by a touchdown or less, and their 43-8 Super Bowl blowout of Denver ranks as one of the 20 best single-game performances in DVOA history.”

Seattle’s 2013 squad wasn’t its only one to make the cut, four Seahawks teams were included in Schatz’s top-10 of the decade: the 2014 corps landed at No. 9, the 2012 roster made it to No. 4 and 2015’s slate ranked No. 3.

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