In what’s becoming an annual tradition, the analysts at Football Outsiders have tabbed the Detroit Lions as the most likely NFL team to pull off the vaunted worst-to-first improvement in 2020. Via ESPN, Football Outsiders ranks the Lions No. 1 on the list.
Before you get too excited and start hanging playoff banners in your Lions-themed living room, even the FO analysts themselves don’t exactly sound too confident in their pick here. They lead off the ESPN piece by noting the Lions were also their pick for this a year ago, when Detroit stumbled to 3-12-1. They also note that no team pulled off the impressive worst-to-first in 2019.
The further explanation is even more of a cold shower, not just on Detroit but the entire NFC North,
This doesn’t mean we’re projecting a great season from the Lions. Our mean projection for the Lions has them as a very average team. We’re high on the Lions because our mean projections have every team in the NFC North as a very average team. All four teams win the division somewhere between 23% and 27% of our simulations.
Basically, Detroit’s projected improvement on defense and a full 16-game season from Matthew Stafford close the gap with the Vikings, Bears and Packers, all of whom Football Outsiders project to be worse than they were a year ago. Maybe being the NFC North team that did the least amount of self-inflicted roster damage in the offseason is the key for the Lions.