Tag: Fantasy Football

Sound off: Where will Tom Brady play in 2020?

Where do you think Tom Brady will play in 2020? Take part in our poll to share your opinion.

(Greg M. Cooper, USA TODAY Sports)

Arguably the biggest story of free agency is where six-time Super Bowl champion quarterback Tom Brady will play in 2020. The New England Patriots recently began contract talks with Brady’s representation, but plenty of rumors swirl about his future with the only franchise he has known in the NFL.

So where do you think Brady will play this upcoming season? We’d love to hear your take.

[crowdsignal poll=10517887]

 

Fantasy football: Colts’ Parris Campbell, Zach Pascal sleepers in 2020?

Could Campbell and Pascal be sleepers in 2020?

With free agency set to boom next week and the 2020 NFL draft taking place a month after that, fantasy football managers are already doing what they can to prepare for the upcoming season.

Though a lot changes over the next few months, finding early sleepers can be beneficial to success in fantasy football. The Indianapolis Colts had a down year in that department but things could be looking up.

In the case of wide receivers Parris Campbell and Zach Pascal, ESPN’s Matthew Berry believes they should be looked at as potential late-round sleepers early in the offseason.

I spoke with Colts coach Frank Reich about a few subjects, but one of them was expectations for Parris Campbell and Zach Pascal. He’s excited to get both of them on the field at the same time, along with T.Y. Hilton. Don’t sleep on either guy at the end of your draft.

It isn’t easy targeting late-round sleepers at this point in the offseason. So much changes that it’s best to simply keep an eye open and stay fluid with the moves that take place.

The Colts offense was a major disappointment in 2019. Jacoby Brissett failed to live up to expectations after taking over for Andrew Luck while the wide receiver corps was injured throughout the entire campaign. It also didn’t help that Eric Ebron had little to no production before opting to get season-ending surgery.

The Colts should be in the market for wide receiver help this offseason. Whether that comes in the form of free agency, the draft or both, the Colts should be viewed as a team ready to make some changes to the room.

If that happens, the perception of Campbell and Pascal as sleepers could change. If the Colts try to add more top-end talent to the room, it likely pushes both players down on the depth chart.

It will be interesting to see what the Colts do at the wide receiver position this offseason but whatever they do is likely to have an impact on both Campbell and Pascal in some way.

Reviewing 2019 late-season fantasy football trends

Looking at which fantasy football performers stand out in either direction from 2019’s final month.

Anyone serious about winning in fantasy football spends an inordinate amount of time trying to understand where they went wrong. We invest countless hours of legwork in effort to forecast sleepers and breakouts, so it is naturally easier to follow the logic of how we were right. Sometimes it takes much more work to understand how and why we missed the mark.

One common place to begin is looking back at the past season and how players finished. While so much usually changes from year to year, it is helpful to get a sense of which guys were trending and how it relates to the rest of the league.

[lawrence-related id=448916]

Most anyone still paying attention late in 2019 can tell you glorious tales about how much their team was helped by several players, but it also can be easy to lose perspective, especially if you didn’t roster a player and didn’t gave a front-row seat to their efforts. The same applies to team defenses and matchups. This becomes far more dicey to evaluate year over year.

We’ll check out where the top players and defenses finished in point-per-reception scoring over the final four fantasy weeks of 2019 and see what we might be able to discern prior to the 2020 fantasy football draft season.

Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

Quarterbacks

Rk Player
Pts
Avg
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
1 Jackson, Lamar BAL QB
115.0
28.8
24.3
21.8
37.1
31.8
2 Winston, Jameis TBB QB
107.2
26.8
12.7
40.7
34.7
19.0
3 Brees, Drew NOS QB
102.5
25.6
11.3
40.1
28.3
22.9
4 Fitzpatrick, Ryan MIA QB
101.2
25.3
28.8
16.3
22.5
33.7
5 Tannehill, Ryan TEN QB
95.2
23.8
15.8
29.5
26.2
23.7
6 Watson, Deshaun HOU QB
92.9
23.2
28.9
32.1
20.9
11.1
7 Wentz, Carson PHI QB
90.8
22.7
26.4
21.9
23.5
19.0
8 Trubisky, Mitchell CHI QB
88.5
22.1
25.9
34.1
20.3
8.3
9 Goff, Jared LAR QB
86.8
21.7
25.0
20.1
19.6
22.1
10 Mahomes, Patrick KCC QB
85.6
21.4
19.5
15.9
24.7
25.4
11 Ryan, Matt ATL QB
83.0
20.7
22.6
21.3
19.1
20.0
12 Allen, Josh BUF QB
75.3
18.8
23.5
12.7
18.4
20.6
13 Prescott, Dak DAL QB
73.1
18.3
26.7
17.5
17.7
11.3
14 Carr, Derek OAK QB
71.6
17.9
13.6
20.2
15.9
21.9
15 Dalton, Andy CIN QB
70.9
17.7
13.3
11.6
10.1
35.8
16 Rivers, Philip LAC QB
70.6
17.7
18.6
24.6
16.3
11.2
17 Brady, Tom NEP QB
69.3
17.3
26.3
12.8
12.9
17.2
18 Allen, Kyle CAR QB
69.0
23.0
27.3
24.1
17.6
 DNP
19 Garoppolo, Jimmy SFO QB
68.2
17.0
11.1
30.1
12.6
14.4
20 Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB
66.3
16.6
28.1
13.4
14.4
10.3
21 Murray, Kyler ARI QB
62.4
15.6
15.3
16.0
18.4
12.7
22 Brissett, Jacoby IND QB
62.3
15.6
16.7
22.6
7.3
15.7
23 Mayfield, Baker CLE QB
62.1
15.5
12.0
15.0
19.0
16.1
24 Lock, Drew DEN QB
62.0
15.5
14.9
25.9
8.6
12.7
25 Wilson, Russell SEA QB
61.8
15.5
18.9
12.6
19.3
11.0
26 Darnold, Sam NYJ QB
61.0
15.3
10.5
19.1
19.8
11.6
27 Minshew, Gardner JAC QB
59.8
15.0
12.7
13.6
18.7
14.8
28 Cousins, Kirk MIN QB
55.2
13.8
19.0
13.6
13.7
8.9
29 Blough, David DET QB
52.5
13.1
19.3
12.2
12.3
8.7
30 Haskins, Dwayne WAS QB
51.5
12.9
6.5
10.7
21.0
13.3
31 Jones, Daniel NYG QB
49.5
24.7
14.2
DNP
DNP
35.3
32 Hodges, Devlin PIT QB
42.0
10.5
12.7
13.5
12.5
3.4
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick trending upward toward the end of the year offers some hope for 2020’s early-season outlook, but a new incoming offensive coordinator and a likely first-round QB selection may unravel any headway.
  • Kyler Murray tailing off is worth noting. The Arizona offense found a reliably dangerous running game, led by impending free agent Kenyan Drake. Murray wasn’t asked to throw as much, and Drake’s return could signal a more balanced approach to the 2020 playcalling script.
  • Dak Prescott was the No. 3 fantasy passer in 2019 even with a poor closing stretch. Despite a new head coach in Mike McCarthy, Dak’s offensive coordinator was retained to call the plays for 2020. Don’t get too hung up on the slowdown, which coincided with Ezekiel Elliott scoring four times in those same three games.
(David Kohl, USA TODAY Sports)

Running backs

Rk
 Player
Pts
Avg
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
1
 McCaffrey, Christian CAR RB
111.5
27.9
17.2
24.5
37.5
32.3
2
 Barkley, Saquon NYG RB
98.4
24.6
14.5
9.7
30.3
43.9
3
 Sanders, Miles PHI RB
94.2
23.6
21.5
10.9
35.2
26.6
4
 Elliott, Ezekiel DAL RB
90.4
22.6
20.7
23.3
31.0
15.4
5
 Drake, Kenyan ARI RB
89.8
22.5
7.1
9.7
39.6
33.4
6
 Jones, Aaron GBP RB
85.4
21.4
7.1
31.2
17.1
30.0
7
 Gurley, Todd LAR RB
77.4
19.4
18.5
21.3
20.8
16.8
8
 Ekeler, Austin LAC RB
73.0
18.3
16.7
31.3
13.1
11.9
9
 Mixon, Joe CIN RB
72.5
18.1
17.0
27.6
18.6
9.3
10
 Mostert, Raheem SFO RB
72.5
18.1
23.4
24.9
12.9
11.3
11
 White, James NEP RB
72.2
18.1
37.7
12.4
15.2
6.9
12
 Freeman, Devonta ATL RB
71.0
17.8
10.4
19.4
7.5
33.7
13
 Gordon, Melvin LAC RB
66.5
16.6
13.0
19.4
11.4
22.7
14
 Carson, Chris SEA RB
63.7
15.9
17.9
12.1
26.7
7.0
15
 Kamara, Alvin NOS RB
63.6
15.9
12.4
8.3
13.9
29.0
16
 Peterson, Adrian WAS RB
61.1
15.3
15.9
13.6
18.1
13.5
17
 Ingram, Mark BAL RB
59.8
15.0
8.2
10.9
23.6
17.1
18
 Henry, Derrick TEN RB
58.1
19.4
25.6
23.9
8.6
 DNP
19
 Hunt, Kareem CLE RB
56.0
14.0
17.5
14.8
15.6
8.1
20
 Singletary, Devin BUF RB
53.6
13.4
19.1
17.8
10.9
5.8
21
 Fournette, Leonard JAC RB
53.2
13.3
18.1
9.3
12.3
13.5
22
 Washington, DeAndre OAK RB
52.3
13.1
7.9
21.6
4.2
18.6
23
 Chubb, Nick CLE RB
49.9
12.5
8.9
12.7
23.8
4.5
24
 Scott, Boston PHI RB
46.2
11.6
0.0
24.8
13.5
7.9
25
 Lindsay, Phillip DEN RB
45.7
11.4
9.2
13.5
3.2
19.8
26
 Hyde, Carlos HOU RB
40.1
10.0
3.2
9.8
16.4
10.7
27
 Laird, Patrick MIA RB
39.6
9.9
16.8
12.6
7.4
2.8
28
 Cohen, Tarik CHI RB
38.4
9.6
7.5
9.1
15.5
6.3
29
 Cook, Dalvin MIN RB
38.2
12.7
15.4
15.5
7.3
 DNP
30
 Montgomery, David CHI RB
38.1
9.5
16.7
8.6
5.9
6.9
31
 Johnson, Duke HOU RB
37.4
9.4
20.0
10.5
4.3
2.6
32
 Burkhead, Rex NEP RB
36.6
9.2
1.5
1.5
13.9
19.7
33
 Jones, Ronald TBB RB
36.5
9.1
0.8
9.9
5.9
19.9
34
 Freeman, Royce DEN RB
35.9
8.9
6.4
11.2
6.6
11.7
35
 Hines, Nyheim IND RB
35.3
8.8
12
6.5
3.2
13.6
36
 Bell, Le’Veon NYJ RB
34.8
11.6
10.7
DNP
10.8
13.3
37
 Barber, Peyton TBB RB
33
8.3
18.4
7.3
6
1.3
38
 Guice, Derrius WAS RB
31.9
15.9
27.7
4.2
DNP
DNP
39
 Wilkins, Jordan IND RB
30.8
7.7
7.6
0.1
8.7
14.4
40
 Mack, Marlon IND RB
29.8
9.9
DNP
9.8
1.9
18.1
41
 Penny, Rashaad SEA RB
29.3
14.6
26.7
2.6
DNP
DNP
42
 Thompson, Chris WAS RB
29
7.3
3.9
11.3
4.6
9.2
43
 Michel, Sony NEP RB
28.8
7.2
4.5
1.9
11.3
11.1
44
 Gaskin, Myles MIA RB
27.7
6.9
3.6
2.1
9.2
12.8
45
 Hill, Brian ATL RB
27.1
6.7
6.7
12.2
1.6
6.6
46
 Thompson, Darwin KCC RB
25
6.3
10.4
8.3
4.9
1.4
47
 Lewis, Dion TEN RB
24.8
6.2
1.9
4.1
9.1
9.7
48
 Williams, Jamaal GBP RB
24.6
6.2
10.7
2.4
4.3
7.2
49
 Jacobs, Josh OAK RB
23.3
11.6
10.4
DNP
12.9
DNP
50
 Boone, Mike MIN RB
23.2
5.8
0
1.3
17.6
4.3
51
 Murray, Latavius NOS RB
23
5.8
0.2
11.4
6.9
4.5
52
 Pollard, Tony DAL RB
23
7.7
0.7
DNP
22.3
0
53
 Samuels, Jaylen PIT RB
22.1
5.5
7.4
5.4
1.4
7.9
54
 Ogunbowale, Dare TBB RB
22
5.5
3.2
9.8
2.6
6.4
55
 Richard, Jalen OAK RB
20.9
5.2
1.8
6.6
5.6
6.9
56
 Johnson, David ARI RB
20
5
4.4
13.3
0.6
1.7
57
 Mattison, Alexander MIN RB
19.7
9.9
11.3
8.4
DNP
DNP
58
 Scarbrough, Bo DET RB
19.7
6.6
8.3
8
DNP
3.4
59
 Snell, Benny PIT RB
19.3
4.8
13.7
4.1
0.1
1.4
60
 McCoy, LeSean KCC RB
18.9
6.3
12
5.3
1.6
DNP
61
 Conner, James PIT RB
18.3
9.2
DNP
DNP
15.1
3.2
62
 Williams, Damien KCC RB
18.2
18.2
DNP
DNP
DNP
18.2
63
 Bernard, Giovani CIN RB
18
4.5
2.2
6.6
5.7
3.5
64
 Ham, C.J. MIN RB
17.7
4.4
6.2
3.5
4.8
3.2
  • Saquon Barkley’s season ended on a high note in fantasy, and it can be used as an illustration of how elite talent typically wins. He overcame a rookie quarterback, serious offensive line injuries, and a high-ankle sprain of his own. Look for “Quadzilla” to destroy everything in his path in an offensive system that has done right by his position.
  • Joe Mixon’s late-season resurgence helps erase a dismal start to the year, and it gives hope for the 2018 AFC rushing champ to get back on the right path in 2020. The second year of Zac Taylor’s system will be smoother for Mixon, and the offensive line is a priority for the offseason rebuild. The No. 1 overall pick should be Joe Burrow, and for as good as he eventually will be in the NFL, look for a reliance on Mixon.
  • Drake — regardless of how awesome as he was in Weeks 15 and 16, the sample size of RB1-quality play is minuscule. Don’t get overly caught up in the hype based on a few great outings. That said, it is tough to gauge his success after enduring what Miami called an offense for most of his career.
(Stan Szeto, USA TODAY Sports)

Wide receivers

Rk
Player
Pts
Avg
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
1
Thomas, Michael NOS WR
103.6
25.9
10.8
30.4
30.8
31.6
2
Parker, DeVante MIA WR
85.0
21.3
34.9
4.8
23.2
22.1
3
Woods, Robert LAR WR
81.9
20.5
30.2
25.7
5.7
20.3
4
Brown, A.J. TEN WR
81.8
20.5
7.5
33.6
25.4
15.3
5
Perriman, Breshad TBB WR
81.5
20.4
13.7
16.0
34.6
17.2
6
Adams, Davante GBP WR
80.4
20.1
24.4
8.1
23.3
24.6
7
Jones, Julio ATL WR
76.6
25.5
DNP
11.6
38.4
26.6
8
Robinson, Allen CHI WR
75.2
18.8
22.6
21.8
19.5
11.3
9
Golladay, Kenny DET WR
69.6
17.4
25.8
17.8
7.4
18.6
10
Boyd, Tyler CIN WR
69.5
17.4
16.9
13.2
5.6
33.8
11
Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR
67.0
16.8
15.6
26.2
17.9
7.3
12
Anderson, Robby NYJ WR
66.0
16.5
17.1
25.1
12.6
11.2
13
Miller, Anthony CHI WR
64.2
16.1
23.0
13.2
26.8
1.2
14
Edelman, Julian NEP WR
63.3
15.8
21.9
24.3
2.9
14.2
15
Johnson, Diontae PIT WR
63.0
15.8
4.1
25.6
11.2
22.1
16
Allen, Keenan LAC WR
62.6
15.7
18.8
13.3
18.9
11.6
17
Kupp, Cooper LAR WR
62.2
15.6
18.5
14.5
16.1
13.1
18
Shepard, Sterling NYG WR
60.3
15.1
13.0
7.6
20.1
19.6
19
Hill, Tyreek KCC WR
59.1
14.8
10.1
13.0
23.8
12.2
20
McLaurin, Terry WAS WR
58.1
14.5
2.8
15.7
24.0
15.6
21
Beasley, Cole BUF WR
57.3
14.3
23.0
14.9
1.6
17.8
22
Williams, Mike LAC WR
56.2
14.1
16.7
14.3
17.1
8.1
23
Sims, Steven WAS WR
54.7
13.7
5.9
8.0
15.5
25.3
24
Sanders, Emmanuel SFO WR
54.2
13.6
8.1
34.1
2.9
9.1
25
Slayton, Darius NYG WR
53.9
13.5
10.4
32.4
11.1
0.0
26
Sutton, Courtland DEN WR
52.8
13.2
23.4
8.4
11.9
9.1
27
Moore, D.J. CAR WR
52.7
13.2
19.2
12.1
20.3
1.1
28
Diggs, Stefon MIN WR
51.1
12.8
9.2
15.2
12.0
14.7
29
Washington, James PIT WR
50.8
12.7
21.1
7.3
13.3
9.1
30
Samuel, Deebo SFO WR
50.6
12.7
14.1
15.9
4.7
15.9
31
Pascal, Zach IND WR
48.3
12.1
17.9
20.4
8.4
1.6
32
Stills, Kenny HOU WR
47.1
11.8
15.1
2.8
18.5
10.7
33
Landry, Jarvis CLE WR
46.9
11.7
13.6
11.6
7.3
14.4
34
Cooper, Amari DAL WR
46.1
11.5
16.5
20.3
2.9
6.4
35
Conley, Chris JAC WR
45.9
11.4
9.7
1.7
20.9
13.6
36
Brown, John BUF WR
45.82
11.4
10.72
5.6
16.9
12.6
37
Crowder, Jamison NYJ WR
45.7
11.4
2.8
5.9
27
10
38
Samuel, Curtis CAR WR
43.2
10.8
16.5
6.2
16.4
4.1
39
Gallup, Michael DAL WR
42.6
10.6
9.3
16.9
1.6
14.8
40
Godwin, Chris TBB WR
42.2
14.1
9.0
16.1
17.1
DNP
41
Beckham, Odell CLE WR
40.8
10.2
5.9
5.9
14.6
14.4
42
Ward, Greg PHI WR
39.6
9.9
1.5
7.4
19.1
11.6
43
Wilson, Albert MIA WR
39.5
9.8
11.3
1.5
10.9
15.8
44
Metcalf, DK SEA WR
38.9
9.7
13.5
13.8
11.6
0
45
Gage, Russell ATL WR
38.8
9.7
16.2
3.7
8.3
10.6
46
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR
38.6
9.6
11.6
5
7.2
14.8
47
Amendola, Danny DET WR
36.9
9.2
6.2
8.4
18.2
4.1
48
Lockett, Tyler SEA WR
36.5
9.1
0
8.3
26
2.2
49
Lazard, Allen GBP WR
36.1
9.0
19.3
3.9
3.4
9.5
50
Johnson, Marcus IND WR
35.9
8.9
9.5
19.5
5.7
1.2
51
Watson, Justin TBB WR
35.9
8.9
0
16.9
3.7
15.3
52
Ridley, Calvin ATL WR
35.7
17.8
17.1
18.6
DNP
DNP
53
Sharpe, Tajae TEN WR
35.2
11.7
DNP
6.5
4.8
23.9
54
Westbrook, Dede JAC WR
34.1
8.5
19
8.5
4.1
2.5
55
Kirk, Christian ARI WR
33.2
8.3
5.3
16.9
10.1
0.9
56
Williams, Tyrell OAK WR
33.1
8.2
1.9
6.5
12.5
12.2
57
Ford, Isaiah MIA WR
32.1
8.0
0
15.2
5.1
11.8
58
Bourne, Kendrick SFO WR
31
7.7
7.2
16.8
2.1
4.9
59
Hamilton, DaeSean DEN WR
30.6
7.6
3.2
5.6
3.3
18.5
60
Tate, Golden NYG WR
29.8
9.9
DNP
2.1
12.1
15.6
61
Jeffery, Alshon PHI WR
28.7
14.4
28.7
0.0
DNP
DNP
62
Erickson, Alex CIN WR
27.74
6.9
4.1
10.5
1.6
11.5
63
Cobb, Randall DAL WR
27.6
6.9
8.3
6.3
0.7
12.3
64
Harmon, Kelvin WAS WR
27.54
6.8
8.1
4
4.2
11.24
  • A.J. Brown’s strong closing stretch is among the top performances to get excited about heading into 2020. He has all of the tools to be a fantasy stud, and most signs point to QB Ryan Tannehill returning. The only realistic way he isn’t the starting quarterback in ’20 is if Tom Brady ends up a Titan.
  • On the other side of the coin, Breshad Perriman’s otherworldly performance was the product of circumstances beyond his control. No Mike Evans paved the way for a significant uptick in looks, and the eventual loss of Chris Godwin only amplified Perriman’s production. Among the worst fantasy outcomes involves the veteran returning to Tampa.
  • Deebo Samuel has one of the brightest futures of all young receivers, and his closing run in 2019’s final fantasy month wasn’t his strongest showing. However, little of it was Samuel’s doing. The run-heavy system can work against him, but the 2020 outlook for Samuel currently projects his role as the No. 1 receiver with Emmanuel Sanders facing free agency. That certainly could change in the next few weeks, though, but it won’t drastically diminish Samuel’s fantasy stock.
  • Scratch the Week 16 drubbing of the Chicago Bears by the Kansas City Chiefs and second-year receiver Anthony Miller’s late run looks pretty dang good. The second-year receiver’s season was off to a slow start as he had to overcome surgery. A new offensive coordinator in 2020 will play a factor in his valuation, but this is Matt Nagy’s system at its core. Miller is poised to enjoy a strong third year.
  • Carolina Panthers receiver D.J. Moore posted erratic stats in that stretch, but he had a quarterback problem and a first-time offensive coordinator working against him. A fresh start, the expected return of Cam Newton, and another year of maturation should keep the PPR weapon in the mix of being a high-end WR2.
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Tight ends

Rk
 Player
Pts
Avg
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
1
 Higbee, Tyler LAR TE
84.8
21.2
23.7
18.6
23.1
19.4
2
 Kelce, Travis KCC TE
80.6
20.2
14.0
20.0
25.2
21.4
3
 Kittle, George SFO TE
67.4
16.9
3.4
18.7
26.4
18.9
4
 Cook, Jared NOS TE
64.7
16.2
11.5
20.4
9.4
23.4
5
 Ertz, Zach PHI TE
59.4
14.9
5.4
30.1
17.1
6.8
6
 Andrews, Mark BAL TE
58.9
14.7
14.0
2.4
15.2
27.3
7
 Waller, Darren OAK TE
58.1
14.5
17.0
13.2
20.2
7.7
8
 Gesicki, Mike MIA TE
55.4
13.9
18.9
1.6
8.7
26.2
9
 Goedert, Dallas PHI TE
54.3
13.6
12.6
7.1
10.5
24.1
10
 Smith, Jonnu TEN TE
45.9
11.5
2.0
11.9
16.7
15.3
11
 Smith, Kaden NYG TE
44.2
11.1
13.0
2.9
6.8
21.5
12
 Witten, Jason DAL TE
43.9
11.0
18.2
8.7
13.6
3.4
13
 Howard, O.J. TBB TE
38.6
9.7
11.1
11.3
8.6
7.6
14
 Eifert, Tyler CIN TE
36.2
9.1
2.2
8.9
7.4
17.7
15
 Hollister, Jacob SEA TE
34.5
8.6
10.4
7.4
5.3
11.4
16
 Fant, Noah DEN TE
33.4
8.4
1.5
21.3
7.6
3.0
17
 Thomas, Ian CAR TE
32.0
8.0
6.4
16.7
4.3
4.6
18
 Doyle, Jack IND TE
31.8
8.0
19.3
4.7
4.1
3.7
19
 Henry, Hunter LAC TE
29.3
7.3
3.0
11.9
4.9
9.5
20
 Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE
27.6
6.9
15.0
3.1
7.8
1.7
21
 Uzomah, C.J. CIN TE
27.0
6.8
10.1
1.4
1.8
13.7
22
 Hurst, Hayden BAL TE
26.2
6.6
5.1
16.3
2.9
1.9
23
 Hooper, Austin ATL TE
25.4
8.5
DNP
5.2
5.0
15.2
24
 Brate, Cameron TBB TE
24.5
6.1
1.5
13.0
6.3
3.7
25
 Seals-Jones, Ricky CLE TE
24.4
6.1
0.0
3.2
17.9
3.3
26
 Jarwin, Blake DAL TE
22.3
5.6
2.9
11.0
6.0
2.4
27
 Horsted, Jesper CHI TE
21.3
5.3
8.8
7.6
1.9
3.0
28
 LaCosse, Matt NEP TE
19.8
5.0
3.4
3.4
5.2
7.8
29
 Fells, Darren HOU TE
19.4
4.9
10.3
2.2
1.2
5.7
30
 Smith Jr., Irv MIN TE
17.9
4.5
1.6
5.1
8.8
2.4
31
 Clay, Charles ARI TE
17.8
4.5
4.9
7.5
2.8
2.6
32
 Hill, Josh NOS TE
17.1
4.3
1.2
8.4
7.5
0.0
  • Tyler Higbee will be one tough cookie to project in 2020. His track record entering the final six weeks of 2019 was that of a middling fantasy option in a system that was anything but friendly to his position’s fantasy fortunes. Tight end Gerald Everett remains a factor, and someone in the backfield is poised to see more targets. A probable bounce-back season by Brandin Cooks also works against Higbee. All of that still doesn’t make it easy to overlook such a dominant finish to Higbee’s season. A sizeable contract extension suggests he will see quite the target count in 2020.
  • Mike Gesicki was all over the place in the final four fantasy games, although he showed enough in ’19 to suggest his rookie season was not a true indication of his skills as a pro. The Dolphins will implement a new system yet again this offseason, and there’s a looming rookie quarterback situation to navigate. The latter typically rewards fantasy tight ends.
  • Jonnu Smith has managed to shrug off a weak start to his career, albeit mainly as a reserve, and post respectable stats when given the chance. Delanie Walker remains under contract for 2020, which could be terminated to make way for Smith to ascend into the primary role. Keep an eye on the situation as the league transaction season begins later his month.

Kickers

Rk
Player
Pts
Avg
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
1
Sanders, Jason MIA PK
49.1
12.3
12.1
21.0
8.0
8.0
2
Lutz, Wil NOS PK
42.0
10.5
14.0
10.0
10.0
8.0
3
Gould, Robbie SFO PK
37.0
9.3
5.0
12.0
10.0
10.0
4
Butker, Harrison KCC PK
36.0
9.0
8.0
11.0
9.0
8.0
5
Bullock, Randy CIN PK
35.0
8.8
8.0
13.0
7.0
7.0
6
Bailey, Dan MIN PK
33.0
8.3
6.0
8.0
15.0
4.0
7
Koo, Younghoe ATL PK
33.0
8.3
6.0
16.0
5.0
6.0
8
Gay, Matt TBB PK
32.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
9
Myers, Jason SEA PK
32.0
8.0
13.0
6.0
6.0
7.0
10
McManus, Brandon DEN PK
31.0
7.8
11.0
8.0
3.0
9.0
11
Elliott, Jake PHI PK
28.0
7.0
11.0
5.0
7.0
5.0
12
Hopkins, Dustin WAS PK
28.0
7.0
11.0
3.0
9.0
5.0
13
Boswell, Chris PIT PK
27.0
6.8
8.0
11.0
4.0
4.0
14
Crosby, Mason GBP PK
27.0
6.8
7.0
8.0
3.0
9.0
15
Fairbairn, Ka’imi HOU PK
27.0
6.8
4.0
6.0
6.0
11.0
16
Ficken, Sam NYJ PK
27.0
6.8
6.0
10.0
1.0
10.0
17
Forbath, Kai DAL PK
27.0
9.0
4.0
DNP
14.0
9.0
18
Hauschka, Steven BUF PK
27.0
6.8
8.0
9.0
5.0
5.0
19
Badgley, Mike LAC PK
26.0
6.5
8.0
9.0
4.0
5.0
20
Seibert, Austin CLE PK
25.0
6.3
7.0
9.0
6.0
3.0
21
Tucker, Justin BAL PK
25.0
6.3
8.0
6.0
4.0
7.0
22
Folk, Nick NEP PK
24.0
8.0
DNP
4.0
10.0
10.0
23
Gonzalez, Zane ARI PK
23.0
5.8
1.0
5.0
8.0
9.0
24
Pineiro, Eddy CHI PK
23.0
5.8
6.0
7.0
7.0
3.0
25
Slye, Joey CAR PK
23.0
5.8
3.0
8.0
6.0
6.0
26
Carlson, Daniel OAK PK
22.0
5.5
3.0
3.0
10.0
6.0
27
Zuerlein, Greg LAR PK
22.0
5.5
10.0
4.0
1.0
7.0
28
Lambo, Josh JAC PK
21.0
5.3
3.0
4.0
8.0
6.0
29
Rosas, Aldrick NYG PK
21.0
5.3
7.0
5.0
4.0
5.0
30
Prater, Matt DET PK
19.0
4.8
8.0
1.0
5.0
5.0
31
McLaughlin, Chase IND PK
18.0
6.0
DNP
9.0
1.0
8.0
32
Succop, Ryan TEN PK
16.0
5.3
7.0
6.0
3.0
DNP

Too much volatility exists from season to season and even within a given year to place much weight on swings of a kicker. The opportunity to register fantasy points is limited to how many chances a team provides.

Defense/special teams

Rk
Player
Pts
Avg
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
1
Vikings, Minnesota MIN Def
64.0
16.0
12.0
16.0
27.0
9.0
2
Colts, Indianapolis IND Def
56.0
14.0
10.0
15.0
0.0
31.0
3
Chiefs, Kansas City KCC Def
53.0
13.3
19.0
5.0
15.0
14.0
4
Buccaneers, Tampa Bay TBB Def
48.0
12.0
22.0
3.0
14.0
9.0
5
Rams, Los Angeles LAR Def
46.0
11.5
21.0
15.0
0.0
10.0
6
Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT Def
36.0
9.0
10.0
17.0
5.0
4.0
7
Broncos, Denver DEN Def
35.0
8.8
7.0
15.0
5.0
8.0
8
Saints, New Orleans NOS Def
35.0
8.8
15.0
5.0
8.0
7.0
9
Packers, Green Bay GBP Def
34.0
8.5
7.0
6.0
10.0
11.0
10
Titans, Tennessee TEN Def
33.0
8.3
15.0
10.0
5.0
3.0
11
Bills, Buffalo BUF Def
31.0
7.8
8.0
3.0
18.0
2.0
12
Falcons, Atlanta ATL Def
31.0
7.8
0.0
13.0
11.0
7.0
13
Texans, Houston HOU Def
31.0
7.8
5.0
3.0
4.0
19.0
14
Patriots, New England NEP Def
29.0
7.3
3.0
5.0
17.0
4.0
15
Bengals, Cincinnati CIN Def
25.0
6.3
14.0
5.0
2.0
4.0
16
Eagles, Philadelphia PHI Def
25.0
6.3
5.0
2.0
9.0
9.0
17
Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def
25.0
6.3
6.0
10.0
7.0
2.0
18
Jets, New York NYJ Def
24.0
6.0
1.0
4.0
7.0
12.0
19
Redskins, Washington WAS Def
22.0
5.5
11.0
6.0
4.0
1.0
20
Cardinals, Arizona ARI Def
21.0
5.3
1.0
7.0
5.0
8.0
21
Dolphins, Miami MIA Def
20.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
7.0
6.0
22
Ravens, Baltimore BAL Def
20.0
5.0
4.0
8.0
5.0
3.0
23
49ers, San Francisco SFO Def
17.0
4.3
3.0
2.0
4.0
8.0
24
Browns, Cleveland CLE Def
17.0
4.3
3.0
10.0
2.0
2.0
25
Jaguars, Jacksonville JAC Def
16.0
4.0
6.0
1.0
4.0
5.0
26
Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def
15.0
3.8
4.0
6.0
4.0
1.0
27
Giants, New York NYG Def
15.0
3.8
0.0
5.0
7.0
3.0
28
Lions, Detroit DET Def
14.0
3.5
3.0
1.0
4.0
6.0
29
Chargers, Los Angeles LAC Def
13.0
3.3
2.0
6.0
2.0
3.0
30
Panthers, Carolina CAR Def
13.0
3.3
5.0
1.0
4.0
3.0
31
Bears, Chicago CHI Def
8.0
2.0
4.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
32
Raiders, Oakland OAK Def
6.0
1.5
1.0
2.0
2.0
1.0

Much like kickers, a defense is subjected to far too many factors outside of its control (field position, momentum, scoreboard, injuries, matchups, etc.) This makes for a tenuous situation to consider trends carrying into a new league year.

Forecasting fantasy football free-agent tight ends

Two talented, young tight ends are the focus of the position’s impending free-agent class.

When the NFL’s 2020 free agency period opens March 18, we’ll see several familiar faces switching teams, including one star who may be in a new uniform for the first time in 20 years.

In fantasy football, forecasting statistical production largely hinges on where said player winds up, of course, and the nature of this being a team game means the supporting cast is an intertwining factor in developing a sound projection.

Looking at the key fantasy contributors facing free agency generates plenty of questions. Let’s try to wager some educated guesses as to where these guys will land.

(Dale Zanine, USA TODAY Sports)

Tight ends

Austin Hooper: Barring some unexpected turn of events, Hooper should hit the open market and is more likely than not to play for a new team in 2020. Atlanta has just under $5 million available in cap space, and that’s nowhere near enough money to ink rookies plus re-sign the premier free agent at his position. Several major cuts could boost the figure to somewhere near $24 million, however. Hooper would be an awesome addition for any number of teams. New England is often tossed out as a prime option, but Indianapolis, Miami, Dallas, Houston and Washington also have the need and more money to burn. Green Bay would make sense, yet money is a factor working against it happening. Chicago is a possibility, too, and the Bears freed up $13.5 million in cap space with two releases this week. Hooper is a No. 1 fantasy option in any city or system.

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Hunter Henry: Despite several significant injuries in his young career, Henry will be a prized free-agent addition in March. The primary candidates for his services appear to be New England, Indianapolis and Washington, while a handful of other teams will make a bid for him if their existing plans fall through. Henry would make so much sense in Indianapolis for both sides. Jack Doyle can help keep him fresh, and most signs point to Philip Rivers joining the Colts. New England is a commonly circulated landing spot, and it would go a long way in helping convince Tom Brady where to sign. Henry even could return to the Los Angeles Chargers, so almost anything is still on the table. My favorite dark horse is the Green Bay Packers, although money may be an issue. On talent alone, Henry is a midrange No. 1 fantasy tight end. It’s tough to envision a setting in which he isn’t at least a fringe starting option.

Eric Ebron: Looking for his third team in four seasons, Ebron has lived up to his potential just once and will be among the tougher player evaluations for personnel departments. Is he really a TE1 for an NFL franchise? Injuries have plagued him for the better part of his career, and the overall level of disappointing play cannot be ignored. Ebron is an intriguing puzzle piece for a few teams that won’t have to rely heavily on him. Tennessee, Houston, Dallas and the New York Giants are leading possibilities with cap space. Several teams are in play, however, including Jacksonville, Washington, New England, Green Bay, Cincinnati, Arizona, the Los Angeles Chargers and New York Jets. My inclination is he signs a one-year deal with either Dallas or Chicago. Ebron’s 2018 season was his ceiling, and he’s a perilous TE1 in any fantasy setting.

(David Kohl, USA TODAY Sports)

Tyler Eifert: It took seven years, but Eifert quietly played all 16 games in 2019 for the first time in his NFL career. The results weren’t exactly inspiring, but a quarterback carousel and a rookie head coach shouldn’t be held against Eifert. He has a chance to explore the open market and could find himself in a better situation. He has opted in the past to stick with Cincinnati, making this time basically a coin flip. His worth would increase in a proven system that is conducive to his position seeing more of the target share, and who knows what kind of instability may occur with a rookie quarterback slated to be under center for the Bengals in 2020. For now, regardless of his 2020 home, Eifert is a major risk for limited reward.

Jason Witten: The door isn’t closed yet on Witten’s return to the Dallas Cowboys in 2020, yet it seems more likely than not he will end up in a different jersey for the first time in his storied career. A handful of relevant stat lines can be expected, and there’s little to be excited about, regardless of where he lands. Don’t count out him signing with New England, and perhaps Jason Garrett can convince both the New York Giants and Witten to come to terms as insurance for the oft-injured Evan Engram. Witten surely would help in the blocking game. Anywhere he goes, the cagey vet is a weak TE2 in fantasy.

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Jordan Reed: Washington released the always-injured talent, and he’s free to sign anywhere before the March 18 opening of free agency. His sheer inability to stay healthy, and an inflated risk of suffering another concussion, makes Reed unworthy of a roster spot in conventional fantasy leagues. To the owners who are a glutton for punishment, Reed could be on the radar in the right situation. Jacksonville could be a landing spot to reunite him with Jay Gruden.

Darren Fells: It took four teams before Fells finally made enough of a mark to matter in fantasy football leagues. He caught a career-high 34 passes for 341 yards and seven TDs in 2019 with the Houston Texans. Fells re-signing with Houston shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, although it is not a lock. Sporadic touchdown dependency makes for an inconsistent option in fantasy. Fells is an overachiever and is more of a waiver target than a draftable asset.

Forecasting fantasy football free-agent wide receivers

Which free-agent wide receivers will make the most noise in fantasy football leagues in 2020?

When the NFL’s 2020 free agency period opens March 18, we’ll see several familiar faces switching teams, including one star who may be in a new uniform for the first time in 20 years.

In fantasy football, forecasting statistical production largely hinges on where said player winds up, of course, and the nature of this being a team game means the supporting cast is an intertwining factor in developing a sound projection.

Looking at the key fantasy contributors facing free agency generates plenty of questions. Let’s try to wager some educated guesses as to where these guys will land.

Wide receivers

(Bob DeChiara, USA TODAY Sports)

Amari Cooper: So much is at play in what will determine Cooper’s 2020 landing spot. Dallas has to figure out how to handle Dak Prescott’s contract situation — one that will impose itself on the salary cap — and prevent Cooper from walking into free agency’s alluring arms. The Cowboys have the fifth-most space on the salary cap for 2020, and big-money deals are awaiting Prescott, Cooper, versatile cornerback Byron Jones, and possibly DE Robert Quinn. Tight end Jason Witten is a free agent, and so is WR Randall Cobb. Both could still return at the right price. Cooper may receive a transition tag, which kicks the can until next year but allows other teams to negotiate with him. The prevailing view right now is Dak will get franchise tagged and Cooper will return one way or another. He’s a great WR2 or passable No. 1 in 12-team or larger leagues.

A.J. Green: A franchise tag is in play here, and Green has been rumored to be connected to the New England Patriots in free agency, but recent reports suggest the Bengals aren’t interested in letting Green walk. He enters his age-32 season without even playing in 2019, and he has missed at least six games in three of the last four seasons. Quarterback concerns will be a nearly even concern in 2020 with the Bengals a lock to use the No. 1 overall choice on LSU star Joe Burrow. The Heisman winner should have a bright future in the NFL, but rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle for fantasy purposes, and those issue would negatively impact Green. The best thing for his value is to leave Cincy, but a tagging would make that out of his control for the upcoming season. In the event he returns, the veteran is a WR3 with an outside shot of reaching weak No. 2 status.

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Robby Anderson: Anderson has no interest in giving the New York Jets a discount, and the vertical asset appears destined to be playing in a different city in 2020. New England makes a lot of sense as a landing spot, given the need for more weapons and one who can stretch the field. It also would help lure Tom Brady back to the roster. The other options of intrigue would be the Las Vegas Raiders, Miami Dolphins, Indianapolis Colts and Washington Redskins. Anderson is a boom-or-bust type with a wildly inconsistent track record and a checkered history off of the field. The system and quarterback matter the most for a one-trick pony, and it’s too early to properly valuate Anderson, outside of saying his floor is around the WR3 designation.

Emmanuel Sanders: Was the brief union with the San Francisco 49ers enough for both sides to come to an agreement? My leaning on this situation is yes. Sanders probably will get an opportunity to explore other options, although it seemingly would be in his best interest to take the best deal San Fran can offer. He brings a veteran presence and displayed a reasonable degree of chemistry with Jimmy Garoppolo. The veteran wideout turns 33 in March and still has enough in the tank to immediately contribute wherever he lands thanks to crafty route-running skills and heady play. The Niners have cap concerns, though, so retaining Sanders may require him to accept a one-year, modest deal or an incentive-laden pact for another run at the Lombardi Trophy.

(Brett Davis, USA TODAY Sports)

Nelson Agholor: Which Agholor will a team be signing this March? The one who emerged in 2017 as a viable No. 2 complement, or the guy who fought injuries, poor ball skills, and mediocrity in four of his five NFL seasons after being the 20th overall pick in 2015? There is no question Philly failed to launch a home run with that swing, but they at least made contact. He’s a hard worker with a positive attitude and wants to return. However, Agholor has struggled with tracking the ball and is coming off of his worst NFL season, which hinders his leverage. With the right quarterback situation and offensive scheme, Agholor could elevate his game as a role player. Teams like Oakland, Denver, Miami, Tampa Bay, Buffalo and the Jets all may be interested, but a return to the Eagles should not be totally out of the question. He could sign a one-year deal that requires him to prove he can contribute again, setting up a 2021 free agency tour in search of big dollars.

Demarcus Robinson: The Kansas City Chiefs having so many effective weapons works against Robinson’s return to the team. He’ll want to get a shot at proving he is more than a reserve. If Sammy Watkins is cut, perhaps Robinson returns to KC. The Denver Broncos could be an interesting place for him as the sides are familiar with one another, and Robinson plays faster than he times. Denver needs someone capable of pushing the field and keeping Courtland Sutton’s coverage in check. Adding Robinson to do such a thing is a calculated gamble, and he’s more likely to be treated as a consolation prize once the more recognizable names are signed. He could emerge as a capable WR3 in fantasy, but there is going to be an associated degree of risk many owners just won’t feel comfortable accepting on draft day. Tuck his name away for now as a possible value pick.

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Breshad Perriman: An unexpectedly integral part in 2019 fantasy football title runs, Perriman stepped up in a major way with injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The Tampa Bay receiving corps is strong, but Perriman’s contributions could have endeared him as the WR3 and lead to a new contract. He was a first-round pick in 2015 for the Baltimore Ravens and struggled catching the ball — kind of a problem if that’s the crux of your job. While he has improved in this area, landing 55 percent of his targets in the last two years, it is Perriman’s ability to stretch the field that makes him dangerous. Should he return to the Bucs, there’s almost no fantasy value, beyond being a rare matchup play, and his worth drastically could increase elsewhere. The landing spot will play a larger role in his fantasy worth than anything Perriman alone brings to the table.

Devin Funchess: After missing all but one game of the 2019 season with a broken clavicle, there’s some question about whether Funchess is now an injury liability. The injury in and of itself shouldn’t be a season-long problem, but the area he broke it made for a difficult recovery after surgery. Is he prone to reinjuring it? Did the Colts see enough in practice to warrant re-signing Funchess? Does it matter since he was barely on the radar after failing to ascend in Carolina? We’re not exactly talking about a high-level commodity prior to the injury, despite Indy grossly overpaying for him ($10 million) in 2019. There’s still some upside given his age (26 in May), and gamers should keep tabs on his situation. He has late-round flier appeal in the right situation.

(Tim Heitman, USA TODAY Sports)

Randall Cobb: Despite a slight resurgence in 2019, there’s no doubt about what gamers are getting in return. Cobb offers PPR value as an occasional flex or matchup play and is barely worthy of a roster spot much of the season. He has one season of play better than a WR3 in the last seven years and just two in his career. It’s unclear whether Dallas will even make a play for him again, and he’s “just a guy” in any setting. A return to Green Bay may be in the cards, too, and it would make some sense for both parties. There just isn’t much to get excited about in any outcome. He’s no more than a WR4 in deeper PPR setups.

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Geronimo Allison: Unable to capitalize on a prime opportunity — a huge need for underneath work, a lack of dynamic competition, and an injury to Davante Adams — Allison heads into free agency all but guaranteed to be playing in a new city in 2020. The Green Bay Packers effectively moved on during the season, and Allison’s market will be narrow, but he should find a home at least to battle in training camp. He doesn’t figure to offer much value, but wait to see his landing spot for entirely writing off Allison.

Paul Richardson: Following his release from the Washington Redskins after two years into a five-year, $40 million deal, Richardson doesn’t deserve much attention in fantasy. He can be tracked in free agency and has a hint of appeal in the right setting.

Demaryius Thomas: Injuries and age have caught up to the former No. 1 receiver. There is little reason to expect he finds the fountain of youth and contributes meaningfully in 2020, and that is going on the limb of him signing somewhere. In the best-case scenario, he is a desperation waiver add to cover bye weeks.

Phillip Dorsett: Look, if a team as strapped for vertical weapons as New England was in 2019 couldn’t make Dorsett a fantasy commodity, he’s not worthy of consideration in any other setting. The Colts whiffed big time when choosing him in Round 1 of the 2015 draft, and barring some crazy turn of events, fake footballers can ignore Dorsett come draft day.

Danny Amendola: The Detroit Lions gave him a one-year deal in 2019 and the well-traveled Amendola managed to be a reliable safety blanket with injuries to Marvin Jones, Kerryon Johnson and T.J. Hockenson in the short- and intermediate-passing games — much of it without Matthew Stafford. Amendola easily could return to Motown, and in that event, replicating his 2019 line of 62 grabs for 678 yards would be a lofty goal. There’s no draftable worth at this time to be found in Amendola.

Forecasting fantasy football free-agent running backs

The 2020 fantasy football landscape for running backs largely depends on what happens with several players already under contract.

When the NFL’s 2020 free agency period opens March 18, we’ll see several familiar faces switching teams, including one star who may be in a new uniform for the first time in 20 years.

In fantasy football, forecasting statistical production largely hinges on where said player winds up, of course, and the nature of this being a team game means the supporting cast is an intertwining factor in developing a sound projection.

Looking at the key fantasy contributors facing free agency generates plenty of questions. Let’s try to wager some educated guesses as to where these guys will land.

Running backs

(Jeff Curry, USA TODAY Sports)

Derrick Henry: After some clarification on Henry’s part over a statement that Ezekiel Elliott’s five-year, $90 million ($50M guaranteed) will be the floor in contract negotiations, one has to wonder just how much Tennessee values the 2019 NFL rushing champ. He is in the prime of his career and fits all that this offense is looking for in his position, but re-signing quarterback Ryan Tannehill also is a high priority, and paying elite money for running backs tends to be a waste in today’s landscape. Tannehill probably will receive the franchise tag, and it’s likely right tackle Jack Conklin walks in free agency, freeing up money for Henry being retained. He’s an RB1 with elevated risk in fantasy due to a bruising style and the expected loss of Conklin.

Kenyan Drake: In response to being traded from Miami to Arizona, Drake took the fantasy world by storm with a monster closing stretch. RB David Johnson will be traded in all likelihood, and Cardinals general manager Steve Keim said he wants Drake to return. The catch will be how much money the former Alabama standout is looking for in his first opportunity at testing the open market. The “Air Raid” offense proved to be a good fit, and this one solidly is about financials on both sides. In his prime and coming off of seven touchdowns in the final three games, Drake has suitors, and the Cards will look at all options to get a deal done. My expectation is Drake takes the best deal offered his way, and I think it will come from the red birds.

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Melvin Gordon: The veteran’s attempt at leveraging a new contract fell flat on its face in 2019, and now Gordon heads into free agency unlikely to see elite money. The Los Angeles Chargers have moved on from quarterback Philip Rivers, and Gordon joins tight end Hunter Henry as unrestricted free agents. My gut feeling is Gordon ends up in a Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Miami Dolphins jersey. Florida doesn’t have state income taxes, which is a nice perk, and who hates warm weather? A dark horse could be the Buffalo Bills, and there’s a slim chance the Detroit Lions are ready to move on from the thus far injury-prone Kerryon Johnson. Atlanta and Houston shouldn’t be discredited, either. On talent alone, Gordon is an RB2 in all formats and has more stability in PPR setups.

Chris Thompson: A PPR-only option, Thompson could follow Jay Gruden to Jacksonville. The former Washington Redskins head coach recruited Thompson and stuck by his side through myriad injuries, and the Jaguars probably don’t want Leonard Fournette catching 300 passes a year. Thompson, despite the durability issues, is a No. 3/flex type in any setting that offers him a clear path to third-down work.

Jordan Howard: After a pair of try-hard seasons with at least 1,100 rushing yards and seven total scores to open his career with the Chicago Bears, Howard was traded to Philly following an unspectacular third year in 2018. This ’19 season was marred by a lingering ankle injury after showing inconsistently quality play in the first nine weeks. Howard is unlikely to find a bell-cow situation, and his return to Philly seems questionable, so this one is really a tossup.

Peyton Barber: Tampa Bay is expected to let him test the market, and while Barber has surprised at times, he is undoubtedly an overachiever. That alone makes him a dangerous draft option in any setting, and he’s not going to be signed to carry the workload. Barber is a backup candidate in fantasy drafts if he finds a home that offers a reasonably large share of the touches.

Carlos Hyde: Among the top four running backs on the 2019 roster, just Duke Johnson is under contract for the upcoming season. Hyde came over via trade for essentially a ham sandwich prior to the ’19 campaign and produced a shade over 1,000 ground yards and a six scores. Hyde is a veteran journeyman whose skill set will garner him an opportunity outside of the state of Texas, should Houston be ready to move on, but my instincts tell me he will renew with the Texans on a “prove it” deal for a year or two at a respectable salary. If that is indeed the outcome of his free agency explorations, Hyde is a No. 3/flex fantasy back with RB2 utility in friendly matchups.

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Lamar Miller: Miller returns from a torn anterior cruciate ligament suffered in the preseason and finds himself testing the open market, barring Houston making a somewhat surprising bid to retain him. The former Miami Dolphin faces an age-29 season and has moderate injury history beyond the knee, so his market is unlikely to be vast. There are a handful of teams looking for a complementary veteran, and he would make some sense if the dollars are right for teams such as Buffalo, Las Vegas, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Miami, Philadelphia, and the Los Angeles Chargers. More teams are in play if their expected plans go awry (TEN, ARI, LAR). Long story short, Miller’s landing spot matters more than just about anything relative to his fantasy football valuation. RB3 talent, coin toss for the situation…

(Stan Szeto, USA TODAY Sports)

DeAndre Washington: Has Washington flashed enough in limited action during his NFL career as predominantly playing a reserve role to lure a team into taking a chance that he could be a hidden gem in need of a starting role? Probably not, but it isn’t an unreasonable question. Jon Gruden could push to have him re-signed to spell Josh Jacobs, provided Washington’s market isn’t more appealing from his perspective. Working in his favor, Washington is versatile and pretty good around the stripe. Keep tabs on his possible movement. In the best-case scenario, he’s a No. 3 with a workload of 50/50 or greater. Otherwise, he’s low-end handcuff consideration.

Theo Riddick: The former Detroit Lion and now Denver Bronco does one thing exceptionally well, and that’s catching the rock out of the backfield. He offers zilch as a running back, and durability is also a major worry. Teams in need of a third-down back or a change of pace will have him in mind. Riddick makes some sense for Tennessee with Dion Lewis likely to be cut, and a wide range of other teams will be in need of a pass-catching asset. Riddick is a PPR-only flier in the right setting.

LeSean McCoy: Shady looked cooked in 2019, and even Andy Reid seemed to agree by making him a healthy scratch with the caveat McCoy would be needed to be fresh for the playoffs — in which he also was inactive twice and failed to touch the ball. There is little reason to trust McCoy will rebound at 32 years old, and it would take a unique situation for gamers to treat him as a draftable player in 2020.

Frank Gore: Entering his age-37 season as an unrestricted free agent, Gore is interested in playing again and could return to the Bills as a spell to the explosive Devin Singletary. He’ll test the market in March and make a decision from there. He doesn’t offer draft-worthy fantasy value.

Forecasting fantasy football free-agent quarterbacks

Taking a speculative look around the NFL’s free-agent quarterback landscape from a fantasy football perspective.

When the NFL’s 2020 free agency period opens March 18, we’ll see several familiar faces switching teams, including one star who may be in a new uniform for the first time in 20 years.

In fantasy football, forecasting statistical production largely hinges on where said player winds up, of course, and the nature of this being a team game means the supporting cast is an intertwining factor in developing a sound projection.

Looking at the key fantasy contributors facing free agency generates plenty of questions. Let’s try to wager some educated guesses as to where these guys will land.

(Philip G. Pavely, USA TODAY Sports)

Quarterbacks

Philip Rivers: The marriage between the Los Angeles Chargers and Rivers has come to an end, and he will be playing in a new city during the 2020 season. Turning 39 in December, the 17-year veteran will look to play for a contender. The team most likely a “quarterback away” from a Super Bowl that jumps out is the Indianapolis Colts (provided the Patriots don’t retain their star QB). Tampa Bay could move on from Jameis Winston, although the Bucs are more than a Rivers away from being a true contender. Tennessee could turn his way if Ryan Tannehill doesn’t return. A wild card could be the Chicago Bears, which likely would be presented as an open competition in training camp. Rivers still has a few quality fantasy football games in him for 2020, but before suggesting he has even low-end starter worth, knowing where he will land is a must. The best option across the board is Indy — where Rivers would be a fringe starter.

Drew Brees: As reported, Brees only will consider playing for the New Orleans Saints in 2020, and he confirmed his desire to re-sign as of Feb. 18. One could argue age contributed to this 2019 thumb injury, but it also was a fluky situation. The system, his weaponry, and an insanely accurate right arm will help cover any diminishing physical traits. Brees is a low-end QB1, whose roster addition warrants a higher selection of a serviceable backup, just in case.

Tom Brady: Rumors of the Oakland Raiders having considerable interest shouldn’t be downplayed, but Brady dressing for any other team than the New England Patriots seems like a coin flip, at best, right now. One has to imagine he will accept a similar amount ($30 million a year) as reported in the Oakland chatter, so long as the Pats make an earnest effort to upgrade the offense around him. He’s a backup fantasy option but has the chops for a few starter-worthy performances, even at his advanced age.

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Jameis Winston: Does head coach Bruce Arians believe he can influence Winston in a way that substantially cuts down on his turnovers? If so, expect Winston to return for at least one year. If not, the Buccaneers will let him walk and target Rivers or another one of the several viable starters. Arians turned to a well-aged Carson Palmer in Arizona and could opt for the same if he truly doesn’t believe in Winston being able to turn things around. For now, I’m operating under the expectation that Arians believes Jameis is closer than not to being the quarterback Tampa expected when he was drafted, and a one-year deal isn’t the worst idea for both sides. My confidence in Winston’s ability to significantly reduce his turnovers is a different conversation.

Ryan Tannehill: Some sources say Tannehill is likely to receive the franchise tag, and others suppose the designation will go to Derrick Henry. There is more leverage for a huge contract for Henry, but the cost for quarterbacks is greater, even in a flooded market. Unless somehow the Titans land Tom Brady, expect Tannehill to return on a modest deal that is modeled in a “prove it” structure. He has fringe utility as a starting fantasy quarterback, but the Titans need to address their tight end spot and should add a downfield playmaker at receiver to enhance Tannehill’s fantasy worth.

Dak Prescott: This one comes down to dollars and cents more than any of the other situations — like enough moolah to fill a swimming pool a la Scrooge McDuck. Prescott was a top-three fantasy passer in 2019 and has a floor inside of the 10 best at his position in 2020, should he be re-signed, and the Cowboys retain free-agent WR Amari Cooper, as expected. Prescott landing a huge deal prohibits the long-term viability of this offense way beyond the upcoming season. Provided the Dak-Cooper duo indeed returns, which is the expectation, little will change in the offensive designs to suggest Prescott isn’t an elite fantasy choice at his position.

Teddy Bridgewater: While he isn’t really a fantasy option to any degree, the expensive backup is likely to test the open market. Bridgewater proved once again that fantasy gamers shouldn’t have interest in this offensive custodian.

Three Bears among top-ranked fantasy players for 2020

The Bears offense was terrible in 2019. And yet, Allen Robinson was among 3 players that landed on ESPN’s list of top 100 fantasy players.

The Bears offense didn’t have much to brag about in 2019. They ranked near the bottom of most statistical categories. Simply put, Chicago’s offense was terrible.

And yet, the Bears have three players that landed on ESPN analyst Eric Karabell’s top 100 fantasy football players list for the upcoming 2020 season. Perhaps Karabell sees the Bears offense turning things around, although not necessarily for quarterback Mitchell Trubisky.

Receiver Allen Robinson landed the highest ranking at No. 22, while running backs David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen were ranked No. 41 and No. 91, respectively.

Robinson was the lone bright spot on Chicago’s inept offense. He had 98 receptions for 1,147 yards and seven touchdowns. Robinson notched the first 1,000-yard season for a Bears receiver since 2014, and that was in a struggling offense with questionable quarterback play.

There was a lot of hype surrounding the selection of third-round draft pick Montgomery, but he underwhelmed for the most part. Montgomery finished his rookie season with 889 rushing yards (which ranked 19th in the NFL) and six touchdowns. A lot of that comes from the Bears’ inability to get the run game going, which is no doubt a major focus this offseason.

Then there’s Cohen, who was expected to light it up in Nagy’s offense this season. That didn’t happen. Cohen rushed for 213 yards on 64 carries and caught a career-high 79 passes for 456 yards and three touchdowns. Nagy needs to decide how to best utilize Cohen, and perhaps he’ll see a similar impact that he had in 2018.

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7 Colts among top 200 fantasy football players of 2020

Can these Colts have a fantasy football impact in 2020?

When the 2019 season was all said and done, fantasy football managers were ultimately disappointed in the majority of the Indianapolis Colts offense, save for one or two players.

There is plenty of hope that might change with a new quarterback in 2020 and while that is far from a guarantee, the Colts could wind up having some relevant players in fantasy football for the upcoming campaign.

In Michael Fabiano’s top 200 fantasy players for the 2020 season, the Colts had seven total make the list but only two in the top 100 and none in the top 45.

46. T.Y. Hilton, Colts (WR21)
47. Marlon Mack, Colts (RB22)
133. Jack Doyle, Colts (TE13)
170. Parris Campbell, Colts (WR67)
179. Eric Ebron, Colts* (TE20)
185. Nyheim Hines, Colts (RB67)
186. Zach Pascal, Colts (WR71)

Because of the low passing volume and the inconsistent play from quarterback Jacoby Brissett, the Colts offense struggled to make an impact for fantasy lineups. That meant Hilton, Doyle and Ebron were largely irrelevant for the vast majority of the season.

There was some hope for Hilton, who recorded five touchdown receptions through the first four games of the season. However, his low target volume and constant injury cycle kept him from the field for most of the second half.

A commitment to the run game helped Marlon Mack finish as a high-end RB2 in 2019. That should continue in 2020 even if his passing-game work will be limited because of Hines.

The Colts are likely to add to the wide receiver room this offseason. Whether that comes in the form of free agency and/or the draft remains to be seen, but there should be some new faces competing in the group following the events of the offseason.

The relevance of the Colts in fantasy football will largely depend on the quarterback play in 2020. Regardless, they shouldn’t be heavily relied upon when it comes to fantasy drafts for now.

2020 NFL coaching changes: Cleveland Browns

A year after the Freddie Kitchens disaster, the brass again trusts the Browns with a first-time head coach.

(Ken Blaze, USA TODAY Sports)

For the second time in as many offseasons, the Cleveland Browns have hired an offensive coordinator without experience as a head coach to lead the talented-laden roster in to battle each Sunday.

Marked changes this time: Demeanor and accountability. The 2020 hiring, Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski, replaces Freddie Kitchen. Arguably the most important difference is found in how they present themselves as leaders. Kitchens talked a big game during the introductory press conference and seemed like he was from the mold of being the right blend between a player’s coach and team leader. By midseason, neither proved to be true.

Stefanski brings an even-keeled demeanor that commands respect. His actions have backed up this unspoken authority by finding ways to keep the mouthy Stefon Diggs content, feeding several targets, and making sure head coach Mike Zimmer’s preference for leaning on the ground game was successfully implemented.

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How did Stefanski get to this point in such a short period of time, one may ask? Well, it wasn’t as brief as it may have seemed. He was lurking in the background of the Minnesota sidelines for years before being an inseason replacement for fired OC John DeFilippo in the 2018 season. The Vikings were calling pass plays at rate of nearly 2-to-1 over rushing the ball, and Zimmer wasn’t having it. After a late-season swing that made the Vikings see Stefanski could handle the task, the interim label was removed heading into the 2019 offseason. He would go on to establish one of the NFL’s most dominant rushing attacks with Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison, even seeing Mike Boone post studly numbers as an injury replacement in one contest.

Prior to his ascension, Stefanski coached pretty much everything for the Vikings. He began in 2006 as a 24-year-old assistant to head coach Brad Childress and served in this role through the 2008 season. Then he became the assistant quarterbacks coach in 2009, helping Brett Favre author one of his finest seasons as a pro. Stefanski would hold this title through 2013 after Childress was fired and replaced by Leslie Frazier in 2010. Zimmer came in prior to the 2014 season and moved Stefanski to tight ends coach for two years. In 2016, at 34, Stefanski would coach the running backs for one season and then become the full-blown quarterbacks coach in 2017.

The system

During his full season calling plays, Stefanski’s Vikings ranked (1st being best):

  • Overall: 16th in offensive yards and 8th in points scored per game
  • Rushing: 4th in attempts, 6th in yards, 6th in TDs
  • Passing: 30th in attempts, 23rd in yards, 14th in TDs, 5th in fewest interceptions

Stefanski, 37, offers a much different style of calling games. One could say that’s because he knows what he’s doing, but Kitchens flashed potential in the 2018 season as an interim playcaller, one may contest. The latter would get too enamored with the pass at times in 2019 and turn to the running game when it was too late. He would make head-scratching decisions, especially around the end zone, and even once admitted some of the situations were new to him. While that is true, who says that as a head coach?!? The responsibilities of calling plays and being the head coach proved to be too much for him.

Anyway, the point isn’t to pile on Kitchens. It’s to show Stefanski is poised to do something Kitchens likely never would have been able to accomplish: Turn around the culture of a losing tradition. That starts by implementing the right mentality — one of accountability, respect, and discipline — but it also comes with the mandate of winning. Without those W’s, the culture can quickly dissolve.

So how does Stefanski go about delivering wins? It will take a few things first that are out of his control. The primary factor is the offensive line must be bolstered. Far too often quarterback Baker Mayfield was running for his life or taken to the turf. Play designs can help, but substandard personnel can take a team only so far…

Another area is cutting down on mistakes, which is a group effort. This comes from having heady players, respected leaders, a consistent voice from the coaching staff, and a system that doesn’t beg for unforced errors. All of the fancy misdirections and so forth in other offenses comes at a price, which tends to be a greater frequency of mistakes.

Simplistically speaking, Stefanski’s system is rooted in the West Coast offense. He had a helping hand of epic proportions from the man who would replace him in Minnesota, Gary Kubiak. The offensive master served as an assistant to the offensive coaches in 2019 and assistant head coach. In short, his responsibility was to make Stefanski’s job easier … teach, but don’t get in the way. Few men on planet Earth know as much about a zone-blocking scheme as Kubiak, and Stefanski will bring this system with him to Cleveland. Speaking of tutelage, Bill Callahan is the new offensive line coach and is widely regarded among the best in the game at installing a zone system.

Cincinnati Bengals quarterbacks coach Alex Van Pelt is expected to be the offensive coordinator in name only. He will help with the game plans and preparation.

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It requires athletic linemen who tend to be smaller and quicker than the norm. They move in a choreographed flow to create holes in the front seven for which the running back is responsible to attack, wherever said gaps may occur. Oftentimes, runners are forced to make split-second cutbacks and go against the grain of the defensive pursuit. It tends to produce chunk plays and has created some of the most successful fantasy football backfields of all time.

It also keeps Mayfield from tossing so many meatballs to the opposite team. The 2018 No. 1 overall pick set the rookie touchdown pass record with a fierce surge under Kitchens as his interim OC that year, but it all fell apart in 2019’s iteration. The TDs came way down, the INTs went way up, and Mayfield looked like he was trying to do too much too often. Expect that to be the primary focus of Stefanski. Keeping Mayfield playing within the system and relying on play-action passing to catch defenses off-guard. Low passing volume figures to be a staple of this offense. That’s not to say Mayfield cannot take advantage and play at a high level in fantasy, but he’ll need to be extremely efficient.

Personnel concerns

Obviously, such a shift in philosophy greatly caters to another strong year by running back Nick Chubb. It remains uncertain as to what the Browns will do with restricted free agent Kareem Hunt. He was recently involved in a traffic stop, and Cleveland has a new general manager heading into free agency. The former Kansas City Chief could receive an offer from another franchise that just isn’t worth matching on Cleveland’s end.

In free agency, Cleveland’s offense faces left tackle Greg Robinson, backup quarterback Drew Stanton and WR Rashard Higgins all set to become unrestricted in March. Robinson, the No. 2 overall pick in 2014, will all but guaranteed be playing for his fifth team in 2020.

While Odell Beckham Jr. and tight end David Njoku aren’t free agents, both players are coming off of extremely disappointing seasons. Njoku was made inactive late in the year as a healthy scratch, and one reason cited was his struggle catching the ball. He never has been a natural receiver and has relied heavily on his athleticism. OBJ, however, catches everything under the sun but will be asked to spend an inordinate amount of time building chemistry with Mayfield this summer.

Jarvis Landry’s release would save more than $10 million against the salary cap. He produced like a weak WR1 last year, and Cleveland has plenty of cap space, so it’s unlikely he’s axed. Restructuring his deal is in play, though.

Fantasy football takeaway

We’ve established Mayfield will be asked to do less, and Chubb possibly tasked with more of a workload, mostly depending on what happens with Hunt. Mayfield should have a few huge games and disappear in others based on game plans and situation requirements — much like Kirk Cousins last year in Minnesota. Even though Mayfield is fully expected to rebound, don’t think he’s going to explode. This just isn’t the system for it.

Chubb remains an RB1 candidate in all formats, mostly because of his explosive nature. His body of work speaks for itself, and there is little chance he escapes the first five fantasy draft picks while playing in this system. Hunt would be a PPR No. 3 who can post quality RB2 numbers many weeks based on receiving work.

Beckham and Jarvis Landry should alternate fantasy roles this year and produce similarly to what the expectations were entering 2019. While the volume won’t be the same as he was used to in New York, Beckham’s game is built around getting down the field. He’s a low-tier No. 1, if for no reason than his otherworldly athletic traits. Landry was supposed to be his sidekick in 2019 and ended up leading the offense in catches, receiving yards and aerial scores. Flip that script in favor of OBJ in 2020, especially if the O-line improves.

Njoku may not even be the best tight end on this roster for fantasy purposes. The market has a few viable options, but he’s pretty well a lock to return with the entirety of his 2020 cap charge being guaranteed money. Giving him the benefit of the doubt, he’s a fringe No. 1 tight end at a position that is rocky after the top names. In reality, Njoku is no more than a backup with perennial upside yet to materialize.