There are three players who could be fantasy football sleepers on the Titans in 2020.
WR Corey Davis
(Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Davis took a step back in terms of production last season. One year after finishing with a career-high 891 yards and four touchdowns in 2018, Davis totaled just 601 yards and two scores in 2019.
Chemistry seems to be an issue with Davis and starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill, as the former No. 5 overall pick was missed when open on several occasions last season.
Fortunately for Davis, Tannehill has acknowledged that he needs to improve his chemistry with the wide receiver, so that should be a point of emphasis in training camp.
If Davis and Tannehill can get on the same page, and with opposing defenses focusing more on A.J. Brown after an upstart rookie season, Davis could find more targets and better production in 2020.
Which players are on the cusp of something big heading into the 2020 season?
Several of these players could cross over into the realm of being sleepers. For the most part, each name has somewhat established himself as an up-and-coming fantasy football commodity. They’re now on the verge of going big.
(Ron Chenoy, USA TODAY Sports)
Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray | Arizona Cardinals | ADP: 5:02
A second year in this wide-open passing system that added one of the top receivers in the game can only bode well for the continued development of Murray. He was an inconsistent No. 1 fantasy quarterback as a rookie, so any sense of a breakout will come in the way of being reliable from week to week. He finished the year as QB7 in fantasy points but was only No. 13 in per-game scoring. The top takeaway from watching Murray last year: The game isn’t “too big” for him at the professional level.
Having an improved offensive line will help, as well. Just two quarterbacks hit the dirt more than Murray in 2019. Some of that was his fault for holding the ball too long or trying to make plays with his legs. Don’t expect a massive upgrade from the line, which will mostly require continuity to help, and staying healthy is important, of course. At any rate, Murray has all of the tools to be a top-five fantasy passer in weekly points generated, even if he takes a few lumps along the way.
Drew Lock | Denver Broncos | ADP: 11:03
The second-year quarterback saw general manager John Elway go all in on upgrading the offensive weaponry for Lock. The Broncos spent two early picks on wide receivers in Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler, who’ll play out of the slot. Jeudy is among the top NFL-ready rookie receivers in recent years. Quite possibly the most important addition is found in the backfield, where the signing of Melvin Gordon will help create what could prove to be a top-five rushing attack.
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The other important area of improvement: Graham Glasgow was signed in free agency to play guard, but he also can go at center, and is paired with 2019 rookie stud guard Dalton Risner. The Broncos landed a nice value on Lloyd Cushenberry III to start a center as a third-rounder. Lock may not jump into the top tier of fantasy assets among quarterbacks in Year 2, but the weapons are in place for him to rely on his lively arm and make plays. Expect inconsistently strong QB1 production spattered among a few contests of being a No. 2-level game manager when the matchup calls for heavy ground utilization.
Running backs
(Bill Streicher, USA TODAY Sports)
Miles Sanders | Philadelphia Eagles | ADP: 2:03
Sharing touches as a rookie, Sanders managed to finish as the No. 15 PPR back in 16 games. His per-outing average of 13.7 fantasy points ranked 21st among RBs with at least 10 appearances last year. The Eagles should (heavy emphasis on should) be healthy at receiver entering the year, which will keep the box free of extra defenders more than last year. The Penn State product ran 179 times for only three touchdowns a year ago, ceding six scores to Jordan Howard. Sanders logged 50 receptions and another trio of TDs. Traditionally, receiving scores are volatile year over year, but there’s little reason Sanders cannot score close to 10 rushing touchdowns.
The true breakout aspect here will come via touchdowns and a reasonable increase in handles. Combining his 2019 carries with Howard’s from last year — not an ideal baseline, but the point is to show there’s considerable growth potential in workload — Sanders would tally 298 attempts. It will be somewhat surprising to see him rush that many times, but if it were to happen, it would tie for the third-most carries in 2019 (Nick Chubb). Consider the 250-260 range to be more than reasonable. He’ll see somewhere in the neighborhood of 240 carries as a floor, and that alone pushes him into solid RB1 status.
Devin Singletary | Buffalo Bills | ADP: 3:11
Efficiency is the name of his game. In 2019, the rookie toted the rock 151 times for 775 yards in 12 games, averaging 5.1 per carry. He scored only three times on the ground but added a pair via the passing game on his 29 grabs. Singletary was sluggish to get involved in his first six appearances, receiving more than eight carries in one of those contests. He had no fewer than 13 carries in the last seven games.
Frank Gore is gone, and third-round pick Zack Moss will have to get acclimated as a rookie in an unprecedented offseason. There is obvious concern Singletary could lose considerable work to Moss, particularly around the end zone; gamers should be more worried about QB Josh Allen’s rushing prowess. Durability also could be an issue after Singletary missed three games due to injury (fourth in Week 17 for playoff rest). Every running back comes with pitfall potential, so trust in an improved passing game helping make an already explosive back that much better. He’s a strong RB2 with low-tier No. 1 upside.
Raheem Mostert | San Francisco 49ers | ADP: 4:08
The trade of Matt Breida to the Miami Dolphins opened the door to a much larger share of the touches for Mostert. Running back Tevin Coleman remains in the mix, and there’s probably going to be weeks where gamers are playing the wrong guy. Keep that in mind if weekly consistency is extra important via performance bonuses in your league settings. Mostert showed he belonged last year with 137 carries for 772 yards and eight rushing TDs, averaging a hearty 5.6 yards per attempt in this zone-blocking system. He went on to chip in another two TDs on only 14 receptions, racking up 180 yards along the way. Mostert closed out 2019 scoring 80 percent of his touchdowns in the final nine contests (including playoffs), and he erupted on the Green Bay Packers in the conference championship for 220 yards and four scores.
With Breida out of the picture (Coleman aside), Jeff Wilson Jr., and veteran Jerick McKinnon (remember him?) round out the top of the depth chart. McKinnon still isn’t close to being 100 percent from a knee injury suffered two years ago. San Francisco lives and dies by the ground game, and the stout defense affords this style of play to continue. For as much as Kyle Shanahan likes Coleman, it’s evident Mostert is the more explosive option. The opportunity to touch the ball around 225-250 times is present, and Mostert may actually come at a bargain in more casual leagues.
(Kyle Terada, USA TODAY Sports)
Wide receivers
Deebo Samuel | San Francisco 49ers | ADP: 5:07
Just how much confidence can fantasy owners have that first-round rookie Brandon Aiyuk will be able to get up to speed during this offseason? How much confidence can we have in Jalen Hurd taking a massive step forward after effectively redshirting as a rookie in 2019? After George Kittle, there really isn’t a receiving option in this offense anyone should be concerned with cutting into Samuel’s numbers. He ran hot and cold as a rookie, finishing the year without a receiving touchdown in the final seven games (including playoffs). Samuel managed to still be relevant in PPR in all but a pair of those outings thanks to a combination of volume and rushing work (two scores).
Samuel’s game isn’t going to give fantasy owners too many explosive performances in standard scoring by his nature of being more of a glorified possession receiver (think Anquan Boldin). He’s still dynamic enough, though, and even in this pass-heavy offense, his target count of 81 from last year should increase by 50 percent or so. PPR gamers witnessed New York Jets WR Jamison Crowder finish 16th in scoring all while failing to top 833 yards on his 122 looks. The crafty Samuel is a far more versatile player and should be in for a final line that pushes him into the top 10 of his positional mates in reception-rewarding scoring formats.
Darius Slayton | New York Giants | ADP: 8:05
Slayton played in one of the more pass-friendly situations last year. He had a defense that struggled to contain opponents and heled lead to more passing … Saquon Barkley’s injury created a need for an increase in aerial work … Golden Tate’s suspension and injury … Sterling Shepard’s concussion spree … Evan Engram’s inevitable injury … Corey Coleman being lost for the year … Pat Shurmur’s base three-wide designs … All of that helped create a 48-740-8 line for the rookie wideout who entered the year buried on the depth chart.
Looking ahead, despite an offensive system change in an offseason without on-field activities as usually scheduled, the Giants once again offer an intriguing situation for Slayton. Quarterback Daniel Jones stands to mature in his second season, and a healthy Barkley will keep defenses guessing. The reality is Tate enters his age-32 season, and Shepard is one concussion away from possibly having to retire. Engram remains brittle, and Coleman isn’t a threat after the showing from Slayton. Jason Garrett comes over as the play-caller and also brings a three-wide base that has proven capable of sustaining multiple WRs. With Tate in the twilight of his career, and Shepard merely a sidekick, the 4.39-second Slayton easily could be the featured guy and produce Amari Cooper-like numbers. The 2019 WR37 is well-positioned to flirt with No. 2 status in 2020.
Mecole Hardman | Kansas City Chiefs | ADP: 10:07
Despite catching only 26 balls a year ago as a rookie, Hardman managed to find the end zone six times. The Chiefs retained Sammy Watkins and brought back Demarcus Robinson, which should give some pause, but neither player has the makings of being something special, unlike Hardman. Generally speaking, talent wins out more often than not, and this second-year receiver has it in spades. The Chiefs could make it difficult for Hardman to be consistently involved, though, which is a legitimate concern. Get him the ball anywhere in the range of 80-100 targets and we’ll see fireworks.
There are plenty of intriguing WR fliers, and Hardman will draw early attention in deeper leagues or from more competitive circles, so understand he could enter overvalued territory in those situations. While banking on an injury isn’t wise, it obviously is a way to increased playing time. So is simply being better than his competition, which is what is more likely to lead him to an uptick in work. WR3 standing is a reasonable expectation after his WR62 debut season.
(Denny Medley, USA TODAY Sports)
Tight ends
Noah Fant | Denver Broncos | ADP: 11.06
The 2019 first-round pick is likely to be a fantasy darling for many owners who tend to wait on the position. In 2020, there’s a respectable crop of tight ends we can consider to be “safe” bets for starter production. Fant is on the cusp of entering the conversation as a midrange No. 1 even without a marked improvement.
The offense turns to Pat Shurmur, whose system definitely caters to the position. Evan Engram was on a torrid pace before getting hurt in 2020 for the Giants when Shurmur was in charge. Denver will feature second-year quarterback Drew Lock as their starter, and he more than acquitted himself as a rookie last year. While Lock didn’t focus too much on Fant in their five games together, we saw some of Fant’s elite speed mesh with Lock’s stellar arm to create 28-yards-per-catch averages in two of those matchups. Denver drastically infused talent in the offseason to bolster the passing game, and Fant should benefit as a low-volume, high-efficiency weapon.
Blake Jarwin | Dallas Cowboys | ADP: 14:08
In 2019, the Cowboys managed to find 83 targets for Jason Witten and another 41 for Jarwin as his backup in an offense littered with receiving talent. Witten is now a Las Vegas Raider, and WR Randall Cobb is in Houston. A rookie first-rounder in CeeDee Lamb was chosen as arguably the most talented wideout in the draft, but Jarwin is a veteran who already knows the system and is now the starter. Only nine tight ends were targeted more than Witten last season, suggesting if even half of those looks went to Jarwin in 2020, coupled with the 41 he saw as a reserve, we’re right at that 10th-place mark again, in a vacuum, anyway.
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Mike McCarthy may be the new head coach in Dallas, yet the 2019 coordinator, Kellen Moore, returns to call the plays. Being an offensive-minded coach, it’s only natural we’ll see some of McCarthy’s system tendencies bleed into the calls. Nevertheless, it isn’t a bad thing. His Packers didn’t really have a bona fide fantasy tight end, but it wasn’t for a lack of trying; Jermichael Finley appeared destined for stardom before suffering a career-ending spinal cord injury. Jarwin has the chops to get it done, although the major concern will be the consistency of his weekly involvement. He’s probably a better target in best-ball leagues where gamers don’t set a lineup but rather field one based on their week’s top positional performers. That is, unless, you’re supremely confident playing the matchups.
Who are the best fantasy football options on the Titans for the 2020 season?
While more players could emerge from the Tennessee Titans as fantasy football-relevant options for the 2020 season, there are four players who stand out the most.
So, let’s see who those players are and why they are the best options you can get from the Titans for the upcoming season.
Note: 2019 fantasy rankings and positional ADP (average draft position) are courtesy of Fantasy Pros and are based on PPR (points-per-reception) scoring.
TE Jonnu Smith
(Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Tight end is one of the hardest positions in fantasy to get consistent production out of beyond the top players at the position. However, Smith could provide significant value for owners who take him later in drafts.
With Delanie Walker out of the way, Smith should see an increase in snaps throughout the course of an entire season, the likes of which he saw in the second half of last season after the veteran was placed on IR.
Thanks to his ridiculous athleticism, Smith is a big play waiting to happen and can turn limited touches into impressive production.
He averaged 12.5 yards per reception last season, which was seventh among tight ends, and his 284 yards after the catch ranked 10th at the position.
Perhaps most impressively, Smith forced 14 missed tackles, per Pro Football Focus, the third-most of any tight end in the NFL and behind only George Kittle (20) and Travis Kelce (15). Bear in mind, Smith did that with nearly one-third of the catches that Kittle and Kelce had.
The Titans will use him in a variety of ways, also, including on running plays. Smith carried the ball four times in 2019, and one of those runs went for 57 yards.
Adding to the optimism of what Smith can do with a full complement of snaps this season, he and quarterback Ryan Tannehill have been working out together multiple times per week this offseason, which should lead to better chemistry and more looks for the young tight end.
Fantasy Football Weekly: Projections for Lions WR Kenny Golladay in all types of league formats
The Detroit Lions found a diamond in the rough when they selected Kenny Golladay out of Northern Illinois University in the third round of the 2017 NFL Draft. He’s been a fantasy football star the past couple years and now has lots of momentum headed into the 2020 season.
He’s gotten better every year he’s been in the NFL and now he’s a top tier wide receiver in fantasy football, or is he? I answer this question and give my statistical projections in today’s Fantasy Football Weekly.
Re-draft leagues
When your fantasy league resets each year all the top tier players are available. Kenny Golladay has gone from an undrafted fantasy player in his rookie year to now being taken in the top rounds of most re-draft leagues.
Often Kenny is available at the bottom of the second round or early in the third round of most re-draft leagues. I just can’t take him at this spot. He’s now being considered as a top ten wide receiver by most publications and this is just too rich for my blood. I love Golladay’s talent and I respect what he’s done the past two seasons, but I see too many other options to list that I’d like instead.
Best ball leagues
Kenny Golladay led the league in touchdowns in 2019 with 11 scores. He also would have gone over 1,200 receiving yards if he didn’t get injured late in the season. Both of those statistics are the type of numbers you want from any fantasy football player yet I’m still hesitant in these types of leagues too.
In best ball leagues, you want guys that will put up huge stat lines on any given Sunday. Kenny just doesn’t seem like that guy to me. He’s solid, he’s consistent and he has explosive plays at times, but not the type that often will win you a fantasy week all by himself.
He’s ranked 25th overall on the Fantasy Pros website in this format. I’d rather have other guys in that same range such as Patrick Mahomes (QB Chiefs), Odell Beckham (WR Browns), Mike Evans (WR Buccaneers), and D.J. Moore (WR Panthers).
Dynasty leagues
Now this is the league format where I’d think Kenny Golladay would be most valued. He’s only 26 years old and is just coming into the prime of his career. He’s still only ranked around 25th in most dynasty rankings though.
I can see Golladay being the Lions top receiver for the next few years and being paid accordingly here soon, but I don’t know if it will translate to mega fantasy football numbers in 2020. If you can get him at a good value in dynasty leagues then I would do that as a long-term investment though.
The other factor that will be in his favor moving forward in dynasty leagues is I could see him being a focus of the offense once Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola are no longer with the team in future years. At that point I could see Kenny Golladay, D’Andre Swift, and T.J. Hockenson being the key members of the Lions offense with Matthew Stafford still at the helm.
Statistical projection and analysis
My 2020 projections for Golladay are:
75 catches
975 yards receiving
Six touchdowns
Kenny Golladay is one of my favorite players in the NFL. He’s a humble beast. I own him in multiple fantasy football dynasty leagues. He’s been a great player so far, and I expect that to continue for the most part. Yet I just have this feeling that this year might be a bit of a step back when it comes to his fantasy value.
That could mean a bigger season for Hockenson and the Lions running game. Golladay has had a few injuries that have cost him to miss some games at times. Stafford is the type of quarterback that loves to spread the ball around to whoever is open. Kenny is a key piece to the Detroit Lions both now and in the future, but I don’t think I will have many shares of him this year in fantasy football based on his current value and hype.
Make sure you know which player pitfalls to avoid in 2020 fantasy football drafts.
It’s rare that a normally selected player should be entirely avoided in fantasy football drafts, because at the right price, risk is mitigated. However, some guys just don’t warrant inclusion on 16-man rosters. Fantasy football gamers also need to be aware of players who are going much earlier than warranted.
This piece highlights some of the more commonly drafted players whose selections may cause headaches.
(Derick E. Hingle, USA TODAY Sports)
Quarterbacks
Carson Wentz | Philadelphia Eagles | Overvalued | ADP: 8:12
How much confidence can even the most ardent supporters of Wentz have in his ability to stay on the field? How about the durability of his receiving corps? There’s little chance the entire cast of wideouts will suffer through as many injuries as last year, but Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson have been brittle their entire careers. Rookie WR Jalen Reagor is rather raw and may not have any sense of a conventional offseason program this year. Then there’s the concern of Andre Dillard at left tackle after his disastrous rookie year. At Wentz’s best, he has been a midrange QB1, which is entirely possible if all goes smoothly, but trusting him as a starter is going out on a thin limb. Should he be your starter, back up Wentz with a bona fide QB1 — a move that ties up two picks for what exactly?
Daniel Jones | New York Giants | Bust factor | ADP: 11:02
It wouldn’t be fair to hold an ankle sprain against Jones, but it is also imprudent to outright dismiss the idea that he could be at least an elevated injury risk. The term “bust factor” is applicable. This isn’t to say Jones will fall flat on his face, but it’s the Giants’ offseason system changes could cause him to take a step backward. In 2019, he exceeded expectations. Throwing out his four pass attempts from Week 1, Jones produced 145 fantasy points in his four best games and 141 points in his eight other appearances. Only one of those contests resulted in a total of more than 20 fantasy points, and he failed to account for multiple touchdowns in seven of those eight games. Learning a new offense on the fly is more challenging than ever, due to the virus eliminating on-field practices. Despite erratic results likely in the cards again, Jones’ year-end results may creep into the QB1 territory; inconsistency is a killer in weekly head-to-head formats.
Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | Overvalued | ADP: 7:03
Allen finished as QB9 in his second pro season, and the addition of wide receiver Stefon Diggs has many a fantasy gamers drooling at the idea of what could be in 2020. A closer look at Allen’s 2019 season shows a quarterback who hasn’t thrown for more than 266 yards in any game of his pro career, and his ’19 completion percentage was still only 58.8 percent. On a per-game basis, he didn’t even improve upon his rookie season in terms of fantasy points generated (since he played only a few snaps in Week 17, his playoff game was substituted). In nine of his regular-season starts, Allen failed to throw for multiple touchdowns, and two of those outings resulted in goose eggs. He falls to No. 18 when rushing scores are removed for all quarterbacks — by far the biggest drop from any QB in the top 12. Over the last 10 seasons, only Cam Newton ran for more scores in a single year than Allen’s nine, and the last time Cam led the NFL in QB rushing scores, he followed it up with 50 percent fewer the next year. Long story short, unless Allen becomes considerably better throwing the ball, he’s going to remain overly reliant on a volatile statistic.
In 11 games last year before his explosive conclusion, Drake ran for 454 yards and a lone score. He registered 123.9 PPR points. In the Weeks of 15-17, Drake shredded two of the worst defenses against the run and beat up on a Seattle unit that finished in the middle of the pack. Those trio of contests resulted in 363 rushing yards and seven scores, good for 90.3 fantasy points and representing 42 percent of his entire season’s output. First of all, that pace isn’t sustainable. Secondly, the addition of WR DeAndre Hopkins means this offense is going to continue to air it out and at an even higher rate. Part of the reason why Drake saw so much work down the stretch was due to the passing game’s struggles. In Year 2 of this system, the training wheels will come off for Kyler Murray — whose legs are a threat to Drake. Don’t buy the hype of the former Dolphin as a No. 1 running back.
David Montgomery | Chicago Bears | Bust factor | ADP: 4:07
Montgomery was a fantasy draft darling last summer, and his weekly inconsistency was disappointing. Not enough has changed in his favor to suggest the second-year back will automatically turn it around. He loses third-down work to Tarik Cohen, and the overall passing game stands to see improvement. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky just isn’t good enough to keep defenders out of the box, and neither is backup Nick Foles. Montgomery ran for more than 86 yards only twice, and one of them came in Week 17. Ten of his appearances found him averaging fewer than 4.0 yards per carry, including eight with an average of 3.0 yards or below. The offensive line is a major concern and wasn’t addressed in the offseason but for a pair of seventh-round picks. Last year’s RB24 in PPR was a lineup killer most of the season and benefited from a rather pedestrian year by the position, as well as a boost from four efforts of at least 15 fantasy points (nine single-digit games).
Jonathan Taylor | Indianapolis Colts | Overvalued | ADP: 5:03
Taylor’s ADP is inflated early on due to a lack of separation in the charts from dynasty leagues still going after the draft. Don’t misconstrue his inclusion in this list as anything negative about Taylor’s talents. He’s the best back on this roster. That said, he’s also a rookie coming into a fairly complex NFL offense without rookie minicamp, OTAs, and possibly a traditional training camp. The Colts have a capable back in Marlon Mack, whose upside was capped last year by the limitations of Jacoby Brissett. Moving to Philip Rivers should help immensely in keeping defenses from stacking the box. In the early going, Taylor could struggle to see the field enough to matter on a weekly basis, and he’s unlikely to see third-down reps with Nyheim Hines having that role locked down. Mack is injury-prone, so there’s always the chance Taylor finds a major role via this route, but drafting him as anything more than an RB4 is taking a leap of faith that could cost gamers dearly.
One of the streakiest players at his position, Diggs runs hot and cold like few others. Last year, he showed his mouthy side when the ball wasn’t coming his way as much as he wanted — something we could witness again due to limitations in the system and from his developing QB. It’s hard enough changing teams, but doing so in the midst of a pandemic is unprecedented. It begs the question about whether Diggs will struggle to build chemistry with his new quarterback, one whose career high in passing yards through two seasons is a laughable 266 yards. Josh Allen has a monster arm but is still trying to put it together as a quarterback — and we haven’t really seen enough maturation from him through two seasons to consider a big jump forward as being a certainty. Diggs is talented enough to inconsistently make his way to WR2 status by year’s end, but that roller coaster may make even seasoned gamers dizzy by the end of it all.
A.J. Green | Cincinnati Bengals | Overvalued | ADP: 5:11
A borderline sixth-round pick for receiver who didn’t even play last year, is entering his age-32 season, and has a rookie quarterback trying to navigate a pandemic? No thanks. Green played in only nine games in 2018, and he missed six games in 2016. It would be one thing if Green was recovering from an upper-body injury, but a busted wheel on a receiver north of 30 is scary. Eleven different lower-body injuries have put him on an injury report since Week 5 of 2012. There’s not enough upside in his game to warrant a draft placement over some of the younger, more explosive weapons currently going behind him in ADP results.
In 2019, Anderson caught two touchdowns in his first nine games and then went on the upswing, logging four scores in his next six games. He has been consistently streaky in the last three years, going stretches of at least five games in both 2017 and ’18 without finding the end zone. He finished fast in the last two years, but it was the opposite in ’17, and now he joins a Carolina offense that has so many weapons around him but a sketchy quarterback situation. Teddy Bridgewater is merely a game manager, as we saw last year in New Orleans’ powerhouse offense. The Panthers’ newest receiving asset is a downfield threat but with that comes erratic production. Despite being the No. 1 receiver in New York the last three seasons, Anderson has only two total games with more than seven catches and 24 contests with three or fewer receptions. Since “bust” is relative to expectations, at a minimum, take this as a warning to understand what you’re getting in return.
N’Keal Harry | New England Patriots | Bust factor | ADP: 14:10
The 2019 first-round pick’s season started off on the wrong foot — err, ankle — after a sprain derailed his preseason and cost him nine games. With a partial first season now under his belt, Harry faces more adversity after Tom Brady defected for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Quarterback questions abound, it’s a safe bet the Pats will rely heavily on the ground game. Given a first-place schedule, a tremendous degree of uncertainty at quarterback, and a likely low-volume aerial attack, just how much can one reasonably expect from Harry? He’s not being drafted as more than a late-round gamble, thankfully, so most gamers already get it.
(Cary Edmondson, USA TODAY Sports)
Tight ends
Evan Engram | New York Giants | Overvalued | ADP: 6:12
Dynamic when on the field, it’s tough to get on board with drafting Engram as a TE1 at this point. He’s living off of a huge rookie season and has played progressively fewer games since his 2017 breakout year. The Giants also have a new coaching staff, and while offensive coordinator Jason Garrett’s system has been favorable for the position before, Engram still has to learn it during this wonky offseason. Then there’s the issue of the Giants having so many other outlets for Daniel Jones, ranging from Saquon Barkley grabbing passes from the backfield to a trio of capable receivers in Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton. Engram currently is being drafted ahead of Hunter Henry, Jared Cook and Austin Hooper — all at least as risky with as much or more to like. Unless you’re rostering Engram at a cheap price and still able to bolster tight end depth without sacrificing significantly elsewhere, he’s better left to be a headache for someone else.
Rob Gronkowski | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Bust factor | ADP: 6:03
This one really could go either way. Gronk took off a year and said he feels great. He also lost a ton of a weight in his season away, and Gronkowski never was a stranger to the injury bug in New England. The Buccaneers have so many weapons on any given play, and the Bruce Arians system hasn’t been the friendliest to tight ends throughout the years. That said, if Gronk is Gronk, and Tom Brady is Tom Brady, gamers are going to enjoy the ride … just understand how much risk you’re assuming along the way. These two may not pick up where they left off.
Which fantasy football sleepers and undervalued players should you target in 2020?
The official list of sleepers and busts will come from the fingertips of David Dorey later this summer, but my personal favorites are already here to tide you over. In this release, sleepers, deep sleepers (late fliers) and undervalued players will be addressed in the context of 12-team, 16-round drafts.
Note: All ADP figures are courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com and are PPR scoring, unless noted otherwise. “N/A” represents not enough selections to warrant inclusion in the ADP charts.
We saw plenty of flashes from Minshew as a rookie in 2019, finishing the year with eight games of at least 20 fantasy points, including a high-water mark of 30.9. The Jaguars’ offensive line should be improved this season, and the backfield remains stable, although unspectacular, which plays into Minshew’s favor. At receiver, the Jags return all three starters from last year, featuring third-year wideout DJ Chark, who is flirting with WR1 status if his trajectory holds up. The draft brought in rookie do-all weapon Laviska Shenault Jr., and veteran pass-catching tight end Tyler Eifert is now in the mix. Don’t forget third-down weapon Chris Thompson comes over from Washington with new coordinator Jay Gruden.
There should always be some concern with a new system installation, and even more so when a pandemic is impacting the offseason, but Minshew showed last year he has no issue picking up a system on the fly. He’s a No. 2 fantasy passer with starting utility when the matchup is right.
Matthew Stafford | Detroit Lions | Undervalued | ADP: 10:03
In 2019, before Stafford suffered a season-ending back injury that is no longer an issue, he was on pace for 5,000 yards and 38 touchdowns. We’ve seen him do it before, so this wasn’t totally out of left field. OC Darrell Bevell has a reputation for being a run-first play-caller, but it’s somewhat skewed since he had Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch in their respective prime on his teams. Detroit’s running game has to be better this year, which means we’re unlikely to see 5k from Stafford, but he’s quite efficient and has a supporting cast to do some damage.
The value of a proven veteran entering Year 2 in an offense while so many other quarterbacks will be scrambling to play catch-up once on-field activities resume cannot go underappreciated. In 2020 drafts, waiting on your quarterback will pay off, and landing this Lion is a wise investment. He’s a fringe QB1 but requires a competent counterpart on draft day.
Ryan Tannehill | Tennessee Titans | Undervalued | ADP: 13:01
Of quarterbacks to start at least 10 times last year, Tannehill rated as the No. 10 fantasy quarterback on a per-game basis. He threw 22 touchdowns against only six picks, and didn’t toss an INT in seven of his appearances. Over the final six regular-season games, he really found his groove and was good for at least 26.7 fantasy points in four of those outings.
People may let the playoffs stick in their mind where Tannehill wasn’t asked to throw the ball. It’s fair, since the offense runs through Derrick Henry. The receiving corps should be better with A.J. Brown ready to ascend in Year 2, Corey Davis playing for a contract in 2021, and Adam Humphries coming back healthy. Tannehill won’t lose you games, which may be extra important in a season with a limited offseason program ahead. Trust him as a matchup-play QB2.
Philip Rivers | Indianapolis Colts | Undervalued | ADP: 13:11
It’s easy to feel nervous about rostering an average-armed, 38-year-old quarterback whose mobility never has been his strong suit. Sometimes we have to defy conventional logic and focus on intangibles. Rivers is reunited with head coach Frank Reich and offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni in Indy, taking snaps behind what is arguably the best line in football.
The weaponry is young after wideout T.Y. Hilton, who is coming off of an injury-marred campaign. However, veteran tight end Jack Doyle isn’t fighting rehab or losing touches to Eric Ebron. The backfield is better than it has been in years, and Rivers will be able to rely on play-action passing. The Colts have two promising former second-round picks in wide receivers Michaokel Pittman Jr. and Parris Campbell to complement each other in ideal ways. Rivers is not a No. 1 fantasy quarterback, but there will be weeks he plays like it, and gamers need to take advantage of it with rotational QB play at a cheap price.
Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports
Running backs
Justin Jackson | Los Angeles Chargers | Sleeper | ADP: 12:11
Entering Year 3, Jackson has a microscopic sample size as the No. 3 back behind Austin Ekeler and Melvin Gordon. The latter is gone, and the former can’t be expected to do it alone. Jackson’s body of work is 79 attempts for 406 yards (5.1 YPC) and a pair of scores. He isn’t much of a receiver — an area we’re likely to see more of Ekeler. Fourth-rounder Joshua Kelley will compete for time, but it’s safe to believe the rookie curve will be tougher this offseason.
Jackson may battle inconsistency at times, and the backfield is probably going to be the focus of extra defensive scrutiny if the passing game isn’t up to par after the departure of Philip Rivers. There’s reason to believe we won’t see No. 6 overall pick Justin Herbert play meaningful snaps with Tyrod Taylor slated to open as the starting quarterback. Jackson runs tougher than his 5-foot-11, 193-pound frame suggests; he could be the preferred choice near the stripe. The long and short of it is gamers are snoozing on the third-year back, and he’s a capable RB3, especially in leagues that run deeper than average.
Matt Breida | Miami Dolphins | Undervalued | ADP: 8:06
The explosive runner was dealt from the San Francisco 49ers to the Dolphins during the draft and will form a one-two punch with the more powerful Jordan Howard. First and foremost, injuries are a concern with Breida. He battled an ankle sprain on more than one occasion in the past two seasons, yet he still gutted it out and played a few times when it looked grim in the days leading up to kickoff. When healthy, he is a low-volume, high-output weapon with the ability to contribute in the passing game.
Breida began the year strong for San Fran in 2019, logging at least 14 touches in the first four games. He scored twice, racked up two 100-yard games and then struggled to be relevant after suffering a Week 9 ankle sprain during a game in which he was returning to form after a two-week lull. The logjam in the 49ers’ backfield led to him being sent to Miami. Chan Gailey is the new OC in South Beach, and he has shown capable of producing a variety of successful offensive systems. There will be a lot of inconsistency from the entire Miami offense, but Breida’s efficiency gives him a chance to exceed expectations. He’s a value buy as a No. 3 back in PPR setups.
In the 2020 draft, Tennessee arguably reached for the Appalachian State running back when it snagged Evans in Round 3. None of that matters now, because opportunity is all gamers should care about when evaluating the situation. Evans is an obvious contrast from the bruising rushing champ, and there’s little reason to expect the Titans to get away from riding Derrick Henry as the formula to their success.
Evans, though, could see more work as a spell or third-down option than we witnessed from Dion Lewis last year. The veteran touched the ball only 54 times on the ground and 25 through the air. Evans realistically could see numbers to the inverse of that stat line, touching the ball via in more passes than carries. He gets the label of “deep sleeper” primarily because there’s some guesswork at play when you don’t know how a small-school back will be ready for the pros in an abbreviated offseason. All bets are off, though, if the Titans opt to bring in one of the lingering veteran free agents.
Tony Pollard | Dallas Cowboys | Undervalued | ADP: 11:03
There’s no reason anyone who takes Ezekiel Elliott should come away from their draft without Pollard in tow — unless you, the speculative buyer, swoops in first. Being a handcuff aside, there’s some one-off utility for Pollard being a standalone back some weeks. He can do it all and is efficient, which is favorable for a fringe lineup gamble. The Cowboys have a boatload of cash invested into Zeke, and while this shouldn’t be taken to the extreme, it’s not outlandish to think the coaching staff could look to lessen his workload. No back has handled it more in the last two years than Elliott’s 736 touches (Christian McCaffrey is next at 729).
Pollard amassed 562 yards on 101 touches last year, and he scored three times. Half of his production came in two games that were blowouts in Dallas’ favor — a reality that makes playing him particularly treacherous. Simply put, if Elliott were to go down with a significant injury, fantasy owners have an immediate RB1 on their hands. Pollard is worth a slight reach if you’re thin at the position.
Eno Benjamin | Arizona Cardinals | Deep sleeper | ADP: N/A
Total flier material here … in fact, Benjamin is barely draftable in deep leagues. If we play the “what if” game, he’s worthy of an inclusion in the event one of the catalysts were to come true. Those possible situations being: 1) Kenyan Drake’s brief but impressive run last year turns out to be a fluke 2) Drake gets hurt with a larger workload 3) Backup Chase Edmonds isn’t durable enough for even limited reps … any one of those situations could put Benjamin, a seventh-round rookie, into position to contribute. That said, all of those scenarios are far closer to being food for thought than anything to take to the bank. Benjamin is a late-round roll of the dice for those looking to take a chance.
(Mark J. Rebilas, USA TODAY Sports)
Wide receivers
Diontae Johnson | Pittsburgh Steelers | Sleeper | ADP: 9:08
Few players are as intriguing as the second-year receiver. Ben Roethlisberger is throwing again after elbow surgery and will bring a much needed boost to the entire offense. Johnson offers a blend of speed and athleticism that was on display as a rookie, even through the quarterback carousel after Big Ben bit the dust. WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Washington help balance out the defensive attention, and the addition of tight end Eric Ebron adds another low-volume target to keep defenders on their toes while not posing a massive threat to Johnson’s target share.
Pittsburgh spent a 2019 third-round pick on Johnson, and the Toledo product didn’t disappoint. The offensive system remains the same, translating to less concern for developmental stalling that other blossoming receivers may encounter due to the coronavirus outbreak. Johnson drew no fewer than seven targets in each of the last four games of 2019, snaring four or more balls in every contest, and scoring twice along the way. He improved as the year went on and didn’t find the game to be too much for him as a rook. In some ways, his upside exceeds that of Smith-Schuster as the potential WR1 of this passing game. Expect his draft stock to climb as we get closer to draft season, though. You’re looking at a rock-solid No. 2 fantasy receiver.
According to ADP data, 70 receivers are going before Renfrow right now in PPR drafts. SEVENTY. He finished WR60 as a rookie in 13 games last year after missing time with a broken rib that punctured a lung. … I stubbed my toe once and was out of commission for an entire weekend. Oh, and when he came back to the field in Week 16, the former Clemson hero posted back-to-back 100-yard games with a score in each, landing seven and six passes, respectively, on 18 targets. That’s 35 percent of his season-long yardage in two contests, and his average yards per reception went from 11 to 16.1. Even though it was a small sample size, Renfrow was trending in the right direction in the month leading up to the injury. He saw his per-game averages for targets, catches and yardage all increase from the first eight weeks of the year.
Maturation on the field was bound to happen for such a dedicated, heady player. Clutch hands, precision route skills, the confidence of his quarterback, a new receiver with speed to burn in Henry Ruggs … short of another serious injury, Renfrow is positioned well to make a run at No. 2 receiver territory in his second year.
Jamison Crowder | New York Jets | Undervalued | ADP: 10:11
Does anyone really believe rookie Denzel Mims will be the No. 1 target for Sam Darnold following an offseason with no semblance of training camp in sight, especially coming out of Baylor’s system? How about putting faith in journeyman Breshad Perriman finally living up to his potential as a former first-round pick after a handful of productive (and timely) fantasy games as a Buccaneer? If Perriman was so ready to ascend, why didn’t Tampa make an earnest effort to re-sign him? It’s not like the Jets splurged, even if it was still more than warranted ($8M) based on past production.
The point of all of that is the team’s No. 1 receiver is not coming off of the board until nearly the 11th round in PPR leagues. That is insane. Crowder, aside from an injury-shortened season in Washington, has been quite productive out of the slot for gamers in reception-rewarding formats. New York threw to him 122 times last year, and the team actually regressed in the short term at WR in the meantime. Only 15 wideouts saw more balls come their way in ’19 … Chris Godwin had fewer looks and people are drafting him as a WR1. At any rate, Crowder finished WR26 in PPR without topping 900 yards. He’s being drafted as WR47. Even if he regresses slightly in targets, we’re still looking at a significant value buy.
Josh Reynolds | Los Angeles Rams | Sleeper | ADP: N/A
The Rams featured a base three-receiver set a league-high 80 percent of the time in 2019 and a whopping 95 percent of the snaps in 2018. We’ve seen this offense generate three productive fantasy wideouts a number of times when injuries weren’t derailing Sean McVay’s plans, and now Brandin Cooks is a Houston Texan to pave the way for Reynolds to get his shot. Rookie receiver Van Jefferson will have a say in the matter, but so will no offseason activities for the youngster.
In 2019, Reynolds saw his work increase with Cooks on the shelf for two games and parts of others. It didn’t amount to huge stats for Reynolds, yet he still was relevant (19 targets, nine catches, 177 yards, one TD) as a flex consideration. Cooks was targeted 72 times, down from 117 the prior year when the offense was clicking. No Todd Gurley in the backfield could mean more passing, and it also opens up a few looks per game, in theory. Should Reynolds see somewhere in between those marks Cooks tallied, we’re looking at around 95 balls coming his way — good for WR3 numbers on the utilization front. Obviously looks alone don’t equate to points, so an even-keeled view is a flex option as the floor of his upside.
Parris Campbell | Indianapolis Colts | Undervalued | ADP: N/A
It’s understandable why fantasy owner have been standoffish toward Campbell in the early going of drafting. He was an utter disappointment as a rookie and barely was able to get onto the field. In seven games, the 2019 second-rounder managed a paltry 18 catches for 127 yards and a score, averaging only 7.1 yards per snag. He has speed for days and will have a second offseason to fully digest the playbook. Staying off of the trainer’s table is a must, however.
Campbell doesn’t come without risk, but the upside outweighs it with a late-round selection in drafts. He’s going to be at least in competition for the No. 2 looks behind T.Y. Hilton in an offense that will go from Jacoby Brissett and Brian Hoyer to Philip Rivers under center. Even at his advanced age (38), Rivers is an upgrade. While Indy added a receiver in Round 2 this year, as well, there’s a steeper learning curve in the pandemic timeline for a rookie. Besides, Michael Pittman Jr. and Campbell are hardly the same style of player. The Ohio State product is not being drafted, on average, in the top 70 receivers, so taking a late-round gamble on him isn’t going to crater your season. Perhaps he can finally figure out how to put all of that speed to good use.
Adam Humphries | Tennessee Titans | Deep sleeper | ADP: N/A
Remember him? In 2018, Humphries turned in a 76-catch season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and managed to find the end zone five times. Toss in 816 yards and all three stats were career bests. He translated that into a respectable payday with the Titans but never really looked comfortable in the offense. In Week 14, he suffered a high-ankle sprain and missed the rest of the regular season. In his second year with the Titans, Humphries should see the offense around him open up a bit. A.J. Brown will take a step forward and looks destined for WR1 status. The guy once presumed to be that in Corey Davis is likely out after 2020, so there’s no real incentive to force the ball his way.
Humphries played nearly 79 percent of his snaps from the slot last year, and the passing game ran at least three-wide sets a respectable 67 percent of the time, with 55 percent coming in a base three-receiver formation (seventh lowest). As second-year offensive coordinator Arthur Smith tweaks his playbook after a season of learning the ropes, there’s room for growth in this area more than any other. Much like with the aforementioned Parris Campbell, there’s no reason to get overly excited about Humphries, but he’s more likely to see an uptick in work than remain stale or regress. Gamers could do much worse on a late-round flier.
Kelvin Harmon | Washington Redskins | Deep sleeper | ADP: N/A
In 2019, as a rookie, Harmon was thrown at 44 times, resulting in 30 grabs for 365 yards. He did not visit the end zone. After a nearly radio silent start to his pro career through the first nine weeks, Harmon’s role increased considerably. Of those 44 looks, 31 came in the final seven games. There was a wide array of problems with the Redskins in 2019, from quarterback to offensive line to coaching, so seeing any encouraging signs from a rookie receiver shouldn’t go unnoticed.
Fast-forwarding to 2020, Ron Rivera is the head coach. Scott Turner is the OC. We presume Dwayne Haskins will open as the starting quarterback, although Kyle Allen (and maybe Cam Newton?) will have something to say about it. Harmon comes with uncertainty after trending in the right direction to close out his rookie campaign, hence the “deep sleeper” designation. He’s really an ideal target for a late flier in 2020 best-ball formats — leagues in which owners don’t set weekly lineups and their highest performers at each position instead comprise the starting group. Despite Washington investing in one-and-a-half rookie receivers (Antonio Gibson should mostly play RB) in the first four rounds of this year’s draft, it’s a pair of rookies from 2019’s selection process who stand to have the best chance of leading this receiving corps in fantasy points.
Jalen Hurd | San Francisco 49ers | Deep sleeper | ADP: N/A
Several factors may stand in the way of Hurd becoming a regular fantasy contributor in 2020: 1) San Fran spent a first-round pick on WR Brandon Aiyuk 2) Deebo Samuel has breakout star written all over him 3) George Kittle is basically a WR1/WR2 any given week 4) This offense loves to pound the rock. Conversely, Aiyuk has to grow and learn a complex system without an offseason program at this time. Samuel needs some help. Kittle has injury history. Teams cannot run every down … hardly nuanced stuff that makes a monumental difference for fantasy success.
Hurd has almost no competition to speak of for the slot receiver spot, which is a hybrid role in this system. The hope here — make no mistake, there will be luck needed — the second-year receiver carves out a role as the go-to weapon in the red zone. He stands 6-foot-4, 228 pounds, bringing the most size of any 49ers receiver in contention of seeing action. In a less generous understanding of the situation, Hurd will require the offense to either run substantially more three-wide sets (highly unlikely) or overtake a first-round pick (also dubious). Don’t draft him in conventional leagues, but Hurd has best-ball potential in the last round or two, and he’s also a “why not?” gamble in the last round of leagues that warrant more than six receivers on a team.
(Rich Barnes, USA TODAY Sports)
Tight ends
Hayden Hurst | Atlanta Falcons | Sleeper | ADP: 11:12
Atlanta lost Austin Hooper to Cleveland in free agency, paving the way for a trade with the Baltimore Ravens to secure the 2018 first-round pick in Hurst. His rookie year was basically lost after an early injury derailed any chance of building momentum. He was made expendable by way of Mark Andrews’ rise in Baltimore, so the Ravens wisely looked to recoup some of their original investment in Hurst. Despite being a player with limited experience, he’s going to be 27 years old before the season begins, thanks to spending time focusing on his MLB career dreams before walking on to South Carolina’s football team.
At 6-foot-4, 260 pounds, he’s fluid and athletic in the passing game but also can block well enough to keep him on the field — and that’s exactly the ticket here. If Hurst can establish himself just enough early on by way of simply being on the field, we know this system is favorable for tight ends, and the Falcons need one more set of hands after Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. Hurst shouldn’t be considered a surefire fantasy starter by any means, yet he could cobble together enough action to post TE1 numbers as a composite stat line by year’s end.
Jace Sternberger | Green Bay Packers | Sleeper | ADP: N/A
Feeling frisky? The departure of Jimmy Graham left a hole in the starting lineup that is expected to be filled by the second-year Sternberger. He was drafted in Round 3 last year and didn’t catch a pass until the playoffs, ultimately scoring a touchdown in the conference championship game as a reserve. Sternberger missed eight games during the season after suffering an ankle injury. In summation, he’s not exactly experienced.
The Packers have longed for a tight end for years who can do damage in the passing game. The system employed by Matt LaFleur is friendly to the position, and Green Bay didn’t address its wide receivers in the draft, as many prognosticators (and probably Aaron Rodgers) had expected for a team that was one win away from the Super Bowl. Devin Funchess was brought in during free agency, but he’s far from a lock to contribute. Rookie tight end Josiah Deguara will play more of an H-back role and isn’t a true threat to Sternberger. Every so often a player comes from what seems like absolutely nowhere to become a household fantasy name, and if any tight end is positioned for such a leap this year, Sternberger is the guy.
T.J. Hockenson | Detroit Lions | Undervalued | ADP: 14:01
Coming out of Iowa in 2019, Hockenson was widely dubbed as being the most NFL-ready tight end to go pro in some time, and after a monster Week 1 debut, it looked like he was going to live up to the lofty billing. Instead, following a 6-131-1 line, he posted five total grabs over his next three appearances and scored only once more the entire year, which was cut short to 12 games after an ankle injury. Hockenson also was nicked up with various bumps and bruises that he played through. Some of the blame for the statistical regression is due to Hockenson having to stay in to block more, something that coincided with surges in the box score for WRs Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones. Then, Matthew Stafford’s season ended after eight starts, and the rest of the season imploded around a rotation of reserve quarterbacks.
In the upcoming season, Hockenson will at least have the familiarity of the same offensive system, despite the offseason program being nonexistent. The Lions have assembled a well-rounded offense of blue-collar talent, and Hockenson fits well into that setting. Top-five numbers may be a year away, but he’s deserving of a much better draft placement than TE18 in a year of increased volatility at the position.
Jack Doyle | Indianapolis Colts | Undervalued | ADP: 14:06
Doyle is two season removed from an 80-catch, 690-yard, four-score showing with the Colts. He lost most of his 2018 season to injury, playing only six games, and the statistical pace was still right in line with his breakout year. The veteran returned to play 16 contests last year and scored four times once again, but his receptions (43) and yardage (448) were down. It was the first time in his career in which Doyle averaged north of 10 yards per grab, at least. He shared time with Eric Ebron, and Indy’s entire passing game was less than impressive as T.Y. Hilton battled injuries nearly all season.
In the upcoming year, though, Ebron is gone, Philip Rivers replaces Jacoby Brissett, and the only real competition for tight end looks is Trey Burton. To Burton’s credit, he stood out in Philly with current Colts head coach Frank Reich serving as OC. Rivers has made a living throwing to the tight end position, and the Colts upgraded talent in the receiving corps over the past two drafts, which should free up Doyle to see less attention in the intermediate portion of the route tree. No one should bank on Doyle carrying your fantasy team at tight end, of course, but he’s going as the 21st tight end drafted when continuity is working in his favor. Look to add him as a No. 2 who can be used in a pinch.
Dalton Keene | New England Patriots | Deep sleeper | ADP: N/A
Rarely do rookie tight ends contribute anything of consequence in fantasy football. Rarely does it pay to second-guess Bill Belichick. As the Patriots forge ahead without Tom Brady slinging passes to the usual suspects, New England’s storied coach is expected to turn the keys over to second-year quarterback Jarrett Stidham. In turn, pundits scoff and suggest the guy behind the decision would be better off turning to a proven veteran. Perhaps that will prove to be true in time, but it’s never wise to automatically write off Belichick’s eye for talent and ability to get the most out of an unheralded player. All of that ties directly into Keene finding success early on, even without an offseason program.
The rookie has a legit shot at being the top tight end in a system that has lived and died by the position for years. In a system that doesn’t have a particularly strong receiving corps. In a system that will be balanced, if not run-heavy, and rely on play-action passing to alleviate pressure on its young quarterback. In a system that said young quarterback will rely on his targets using their brains more than their brawn. A starter of 38 games at Virginia Tech in three years, Keene could be ready for a markedly successful debut season. And it won’t cost gamers more than a throwaway draft selection to go with a little bit of faith to find out.
Kickers
Matt Gay | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sleeper | ADP: N/A
It’s tough to understand why Gay isn’t being drafted in the top 16, according to ADP figures, after being the No. 6 fantasy kicker in 2019. The offense may not afforded him the 35 kicks he attempted last year, but he still registered 7.8 fantasy points a game while missing five extra points on 48 tries and connected on just 77.1 percent of his field goals (27-for-35). He missed six kicks from 40-plus, including three from greater than 50 yards. Gay missed only three kicks prior to the final three weeks of the year. It’s a little worrisome that two of those games were at home, and one was in Detroit’s climate-controlled confines. He went 0-for-3 in the season finale, so it’s fair to give him the benefit of the doubt and chalk it up to rookie jitters.
In 2018, Fairbairn led all kickers in fantasy football points. He regressed to PK19 last year, which came from a massive regression in field goal attempts, as well as make percentage, going from 2018’s 88.1 percent to 80.0 in 2019. The Texans made significant change on offense, bringing in running back David Johnson and trading wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins in the offseason. It’s more than fair to expect this offense will take a step back in explosiveness and score fewer touchdowns. The entire offensive design should be more conservative based on the personnel limitations. More stalled drives tend to result in more three-point tries. If he could get closer to the 42 attempts of 2018 — even, say, kick 35 times — we’re talking about a mid-tier No. 1 kicker.
Last year’s No. 7 fantasy kicker isn’t getting drafted, on average, in the top 16 spots. He posted 7.4 fantasy points per game in 2019, marking the third time in his past four seasons to score at least than much. Lambo’s fantasy success was fueled by a personal-best 34 field goal attempts and and insane 97.1 percent conversation rate. There will be regression in the accuracy, because that’s just not sustainable over time. To counter it, look for an increase from 20 extra point attempts. This offense figures to be more prolific in the TD column with a proven play-caller in Jay Gruden, the maturation of QB Gardner Minshew, and upgrades in the offensive personnel.
Defense/special teams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Undervalued | ADP: 14:12
Tampa’s weak spot is the secondary. The front seven will drive everything, applying ample pressure to mask deficiencies on the back end. The defensive line isn’t particularly aggressive for sacks, but that’s because of the system’s reliance on the linebacking corps, which features the 2019 NFL sack leader in Shaquil Barrett. Linebacker Devin White should improve upon his promising rookie season as last year’s prized first-round choice. The most important factor is rest. The offense should be far more protective of the football than Jameis Winston’s version a year ago, and it’s crazy how much that matters for a defense to stay fresh in a climate like that of central Florida. This should be one of the top-five defenses chosen, not the 14th overall.
New Orleans Saints | Undervalued | ADP: 13:12
In 2019, the Saints were fantasy’s fifth-best defensive unit for points scored. The value differential here is only four spots in relation to ADP, sot it’s not like this unit will be some kind of crazy steal. There’s a lot to be said for continuity in both personnel and coaching during the year of the pandemic, so don’t short-change the notion of stability. The pass rush should remain strong, and the secondary improved. The NFL draft brought in pass-rushing specialist Zack Baun. Offensive consistency also is an important factor, too, and it shouldn’t be understated. Don’t be suckered into overvaluing the universally preferred teams, like New England, Chicago and Buffalo, while passing on a smarter option in New Orleans.
Cleveland Browns | Sleeper | ADP: 14:11
Simply regaining its best defender in Myles Garrett after his 2019 suspension will make a world of difference. The Browns have considerable talent, even if they will be reliant on two rookies making a substantial impact in 2020, so this recommendation isn’t without risk. The defense is going to be faster because of it, too. Look for reasonable jumps in play from second-year linebacker Mack Wilson and cornerback Greedy Williams. While rostering a second defense is almost never worthwhile coming out of a draft, Cleveland is a fringe starting unit if you missed out on the safer options.
In fantasy football, there are certain narratives in the offseason to keep an eye on. Most of it is simply coach speak but when there is a consistent narrative taking place throughout the offseason, it is considered a drumbeat. Paying careful attention to those drumbeats can pay off when the season arrives.
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While it doesn’t always result in a player blowing up in fantasy football, it helps to pay attention. Indianapolis Colts running back Nyheim Hines finds himself in this particular situation.
The drumbeat has been banging loudly all offseason for Hines. Like Jumanji loud.
The reason it has been growing is due to the signing of Philip Rivers, who has made a reputation for targeting the running back position. That alone makes Hines an intriguing player given that he’s the best pass-catcher in the backfield.
But the reason the drumbeat has been growing is how the coaching staff has constantly talked about Hines and his ability to have a big year thanks to the addition of Rivers.
We took a look at how the Colts can use Hines as the Chargers did with Austin Ekeler in 2019. But now, we will take a look at some of the quotes the coaching staff has said throughout the offseason.
10 catches in a game?
When talking about all of the mouths to feed in the offense, head coach Frank Reich discussed what type of impact Hines can have in the passing game. It may have been hyperbole. Reich may have been completely serious. But there is no denying he feels strongly about Hines benefitting from Rivers.
“It wouldn’t surprise me if there is a game this year that Nyheim Hines has 10 catches. You guys know from even just talking to Nick (Sirianni) last week, Philip (Rivers) has an uncanny ability to get the ball to the backs and checkdowns and using him like that. Nyheim will be very much integrated into the game plan on all three downs,” Reich said on May 18. “I wouldn’t anticipate he is going to play as many snaps as Marlon (Mack) and Jonathan (Taylor), but there are still enough snaps for him to be very, very productive this year – very productive.”
Hines to benefit big time from Rivers
Following the draft, Colts offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni talked to reporters on May 11. The first question he was asked was about Hines’ role in the passing game and how he benefits from the addition of Rivers.
“Yeah, where I think Philip (Rivers) is really outstanding, he has this great ability to find the running back out of the backfield whether we’re scheming for that guy or whether it just happens within a protection, where he goes through his progression and finds that back.” Sirianni said. “So I think for sure Nyheim (Hines) will benefit from that. Just like, we had Danny Woodhead when Frank (Reich) and I were together with the Chargers, and I think one year Danny had 80 catches. Yeah, Nyheim is going to benefit big time from playing with Philip Rivers. There’s no question about that.”
When both the head coach and offensive coordinator are talking a player up from almost the same point of view and thought process, it is something to begin considering a little bit more.
The go-to pass guy in the backfield
This one comes from general manager Chris Ballard. The question wasn’t specifically about Hines but about the roles that players will have in a now-crowded backfield thanks to the addition of Jonathan Taylor. What we can take from the following quote is that Hines already has his role carved out. It will be in the passing game and he will be the main one handling the pass-catching duties out of the backfield.
“I think sometimes you do it by committee but everybody has their emphasis,” said Ballard on April 25. “Everybody knows Nyheim (Hines) is kind of our go-to scheme-up pass guy. We do some unique things with Nyheim.”
Conclusion
Sifting through coach speak and offseason hype is incredibly difficult. It’s easy to buy-in to what the coaches are saying. But in the case of Hines, it’s a bit more than that.
It’s one thing to simply have coaches talking up a player. But the data also backs up what the coaches are saying. Rivers has historically targeted the running back position heavily so this isn’t just wishful thinking from the coaching staff.
There is always risk in completely buying into the offseason narratives but with what the coaches are saying and the historical data confirming it to be a trend, this drumbeat might be one to keep an eye on throughout the offseason.
Tyrod Taylor is worth the selection in the later rounds of fantasy football.
After 16 seasons with Philip Rivers under center, the Chargers are left in the hands of Tyrod Taylor and rookie Justin Herbert. At the moment, Taylor’s in the driver’s seat to start and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him enter Week 1 as the starter due to his experience, which would allow Herbert to develop.
Rivers was a top option in fantasy football for more than a decade, but his replacement is capable of making fantasy owners happy this upcoming season.
Taylor has a couple of things going for him. The first thing is his familairty with coach Anthony Lynn’s system. In both 2015 and 2016 when Taylor and Lynn were on the Bills, the 30-year old threw for over 3,000 yards and 37 combined touchdowns as opposed to just 12 interceptions.
On top of that, Taylor rushed for 1,148 yards and 10 touchdowns on 199 carries in both those seasons combined.
The other thing that should benefit Taylor is that the team’s offensive skill players are flooded with talent. Keenan Allen (top-10 WR), Mike Williams (high-upside 20-30 WR), Hunter Henry (top-10 TE), and Austin Ekeler (top-10 RB) should all help make life easier on Taylor in 2020.
Taylor isn’t the perfect passer and is unlikely to surpass 4,000 passing yards, but if he has developed more of a downfield passing element as opposed to his play from recent seasons, along with his ability to limit turnovers and the skill players at his disposal then it will help his case.
Even if Taylor ends up being average as a passer, his rushing ability picks up the slack due to how valuable rushing yards are for fantasy scoring. For example, Bills’ Josh Allen finished as a top-10 quarterback in fantasy despite having the worst completion percentage of any starting quarterback.
It goes to show rushing yards/touchdowns are the most valuable thing a quarterback can do in fantasy. Taylor will have plenty of opportunities to flourish in that area as there will be plenty of zone read and other quarterback option runs in the team’s new offensive scheme.
If Taylor performs well this upcoming well, he presents himself as a solid QB2 or a high-end streaming option in all formats.
Former Georgia football RBs Todd Gurley, Nick Chubb, Sony Michel and D’Andre Swift fantasy football rankings.
With D’Andre Swift being drafted by the Detroit Lions in April, the Georgia Bulldogs now have four running backs in the NFL.
The 2020 NFL season looks like it’s going to take place this fall, which means fantasy football projections are starting to pick up as people begin planning out their teams.
Last season: 298 carries, 1,494 yards, 8 touchdowns. 36 catches on 49 targets, 278 receiving yards, 0 receiving touchdowns.
Latham wrote:
Nick Chubb would be a lot higher on this list if it weren’t for the presence of Kareem Hunt. Last year, both players split the workload, although Chubb was clearly the primary starter. It’s entirely possible that this becomes more of a 50/50 split, which obviously would hurt Chubb’s overall production.
No. 14 – Todd Gurley: RB1 Potential
Last season: 223 carries, 857 yards, 12 touchdowns. 31 catches on 49 targets, 207 receiving yards, 2 receiving touchdowns.
Latham wrote:
He obviously comes with some injury risk, but he should be a great fantasy option as long as he stays on the field.
No. 27 – Sony Michel: RB2 Potential
Last season: 247 carries, 912 yards, 7 touchdowns. 12 catches on 20 targets, 94 receiving yards, 0 receiving touchdowns.
Latham wrote:
There won’t be many scoring opportunities, but Michel should have a decent workload.
No. 36 – D’Andre Swift
Last season, at Georgia: 196 carries, 1,218 yards, 7 touchdowns. 24 catches, 216 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown.
Latham did not provide comments on Swift, but the versatile back should put up numbers, especially in a PPR league. He’s quick, he’s shifty and he can you over. I think 36 is too low for Swift. I’d have him at 25 or so.
The Indianapolis Colts are hoping they see a lot of development from their second-round pick in 2019. Wide receiver Parris Campbell was dealt a tough hand his rookie season but will be looking to make an impact on the roster.
With a new quarterback in Philip Rivers, the Colts should see an uptick in the passing game. Campbell will be serving as the slot wide receiver for Rivers to begin the season and will likely take the majority of his snaps inside like he did in college with the Buckeyes.
Campbell played in just seven games during the 2019 season. He suffered four separate injuries, three of which required surgery. Heading into 2020, Campbell is fully healthy and looking to make an impact.
Here are my early projections for the former second-round pick:
Targets
Rec.
Yards
TDs
Yds/Rec.
Target Share
Catch Rate
56
39
433
2
11.1
10%
70%
Targets: These numbers might feel low for Campbell, especially given that he will be working the short game from the slot. However, the biggest detriment to Campbell’s target share is running back Nyheim Hines. If Hines truly has a big piece of the passing offense as the team continues to say—I have a projected 15% target share right now—then Campbell will be the one who sees fewer targets because he works in the slot. If he comes out and proves to be a favorite target of Rivers, then this could change. But with the drumbeat so loud for Hines, it’s hard to see both of them thriving in the passing offense.
Catch Rate: Campbell has reliable hands so projecting a strong catch rate isn’t too difficult. He showed in college he has secure hands and posted a 75% catch rate during his rookie season (24 targets). Working in the slot and mostly in the short passing game, things shouldn’t change all that much for Campbell when it comes to his catch rate. It wouldn’t even be a surprise to see him post a higher number than 70%.
Rushing: It should also be noted that there are some rushing numbers for Campbell in his projections. Right now, I have Campbell projected for nine carries and 76 rushing yards. The Colts will be looking to get the ball in his hands any way they can so he can use that 4.31 speed.
Conclusion
I love what Campbell brings to the Colts offense in terms of value and talent. But it’s hard to project him holding a large target share in the passing offense with Michael Pittman Jr. and the aforementioned Hines likely on the pecking order ahead of Campbell. It might be that Campbell is simply a better real wide receiver than a fantasy wide receiver for the Colts in 2020.
