fantasy football player prop bets

NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Super Bowl Picks

Five favorable player prop bets to make before Super Bowl LVI.

We’ve been doing prop bets all year. When it comes to the Super Bowl, the rest of the world is catching up to us, although we won’t waste your time on whether the opening coin toss will be heads or tails or what color Gatorade gets poured on the winning coach.

We’ve picked five player props we like because the numbers are viewed as too high or too low based on what could be expected, including taking the Under on a pair of receivers who have done very well by me because I was ahead of the curve on taking the Over time after time.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Thursday, Feb. 10 at 8:10 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

Chief of Staff

The career trajectory of Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford is one that sadly has played out many times in NFL lore – a first overall pick who went to a bad organization and never achieved the success in the NFL that he enjoyed in college. Stafford is one of those guys. While he posted Hall of Fame-worthy statistics in Detroit, he likely wouldn’t be considered a Hall of Famer because he never won a chip. If he adds that resume-builder Sunday, his HOF stock will climb exponentially. He has an interesting prop bet for his Over/Under on touchdown passes (2.5 at +140 Over, -185 Under). I think the Rams are going to score 30 or more points against the Bengals. That will effectively require four touchdowns if they score 31. Stafford will be allowed to have his moment if that happens, and even if the team is at the 1- or 2-yard line, they may still throw. Take the Over (+140).

The Thrill of the Chase

Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase has been a guy I’ve loved all season, because the Over/Under took too long to catch up with him. When it did, he became a matchup play who consistently cashed in on the Under. He has topped 100 yards in two of his three postseason games, but he wasn’t under the direct opposition of Jalen Ramsey – another veteran in search of a title ring. The Rams are likely going to have Ramsey follow Chase throughout the game. He has a solid Over/Under number (80.5 yards at -114 for both). Against most top cornerbacks, that would be enough. Not against Ramsey. Joe Burrow is going to be under pressure all night and will have to make quick decisions. That doesn’t end well when Ramsey is peeking in the backfield. Chase is capable of huge things, but Burrow will make business decisions and look the other way. Take the Under (-114).

Bend It Like Beckham

Rams WR Odell Beckham saw his career almost come to an end when he was released at midseason by the Cleveland Browns. In eight regular season games with the Rams, he had more than 40 receiving yards just twice. In the postseason, his receiving yardage numbers have been 54-69-114. He has a achievable Over/Under for receiving yards (65.5 yards at -114 Over, -114 Under). What makes Beckham interesting is the number of times in the last two games the Rams have started a drive with a bubble screen to Beckham four times – an indication they want him involved in the passing game early. With all the attention Cooper Kupp is going to receive, OBJ is going to be singled up a lot, and he has the skills to do damage. … Another veteran with a solid resume who needs a Super Bowl win to pad it. Take the Over (-114).

No Average Joe

There are times when a really low number is an attractive prop bet, because the conventional wisdom is overwhelmingly one-sided. Such is the case for Bengals QB Joe Burrow. He has a peewee number for rushing yards (12.5 yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). The rationale is simple. He has played 19 games and has hit 13 or more yards just three times. Easy, right? Not so fast, my friend. Burrow was up against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that brings the heat but drops the back seven. The Rams blitz a lot. All that is necessary is one blitz to get picked up with five receivers running downfield routes and Burrow will see nothing but open spaces. It only takes one play to hit a number this small, and he proved against the Chiefs that he is willing to run when he needs a first down. Take the Over (-114).

Feeling Cooped Up

There is no player I went to the pay window with more often than Rams WR Cooper Kupp. In September, he was a godsend because those setting the lines weren’t comfortable projecting 100 yards. I was. They are now. But, they have reached a tipping point that makes me sad. He has arguably the most astronomical reception number ever assigned (8.5 receptions at -103 Over, -125 Under). If it was 7.5, I would have strongly considered taking the Over. This is Cincy’s first Super Bowl in forever, and the coaching staff likely has a “5 Keys to Victory” sheet. No. 1 or 2 is likely “Stop Cooper Kupp.” For the same reason I think OBJ will hit his Over, expecting constant double coverage and Kupp still having nine receptions to pay off the Over is just asking too much. He’s been good to me on the Over all season for receptions and/or yardage, but the number has gotten just too high. Take the Under (-125).

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NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Championship Week

Five pro bets that should hit during the NFL Conference Championships.

We’re down to the NFL’s Final Four, which includes three teams that won on the road with walk-off field goals in the Divisional Round. With the Super Bowl at stake, we take a prop bet for each team (one gets two) as two teams prepare to have their Super Bowl dream come true.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Jan. 28 at 6:20 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

No Average Joe

Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon doesn’t get the same amount of credit that teammates Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase get for the success of the Cincinnati offense, but in many ways, Mixon is the straw that stirs the drink. In the Bengals offense, Mixon has been critical to controlling game flow and keeping pressure off Burrow. If Mixon struggles, Burrow has to pass too often and his weak O-line is exposed. Mixon’s Over/Under is very reasonable (15.5 rushing attempts at -106 Over, -122 Under). If the Bengals are going to win, it will require a heavy dose of Mixon to keep the Chiefs’ potent offense on the sideline. Take the Over (-106).

What the Helaire’s Going On Out There?

Kansas City Chiefs running Clyde Edwards-Helaire came back last week after missing three games and, while he only had seven carries, he broke off one big run to finish with 60 rushing yards. The problem is that during his injury, Jerick McKinnon has been an explosive replacement and has earned the opportunity to be the primary back – both as a runner and receiver. CEH has a modest Over/Under (37.5 rushing yards at -115 Over, -112 Under). But, the question facing Andy Reid is whether to cut into the time with the guy who has the hot hand (McKinnon). If the Chiefs are ahead and trying to grind down the clock, go with the team’s best between-the-tackles power runner (Darrel Williams). If Edwards-Helaire ends up with only seven carries again this week, he will need to pop another big run to hit that number. He may not get the opportunities he needs. Take the Under (-115).

Kelce Grammar

Among the prop bets available to bettors is the straightforward questions, “Is Player X going to score a touchdown?” It’s pretty simple. He does or he doesn’t. Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has a fairly reasonable number to score (-125 for an anytime touchdown). Kelce has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last five games, and the Chiefs design packages specifically to get him the ball near the goal line. If the expectation of a high-scoring game happens, it would be hard to imagine the Chiefs scoring three or four touchdowns and Kelce not getting his piece of the pie. Kelce scores (-125).

Green Akers

Los Angeles Rams RB Cam Akers has made a miraculous return from an Achilles injury suffered last summer and has taken over the run game in the postseason, which explains why his Over/Under is so high (17.5 rushing attempts at -105 Over, -123 Under). The Rams offense has force-fed Akers in their playoff run – 41 carries in two games. But, he has produced just 2.5 yards a carry, including just 48 yards on 24 carries last week when the Rams tried to milk a big lead vs. a tough run defense. Against a San Francisco 49ers team that has momentum and has beaten the Rams six straight times, running Akers too often if he keeps producing just a couple of yards won’t be tolerated for long if it leaves the offense in bad down-and-distance situations. Unless the Rams are up by 14 or more, this is a big number to try to hit. Take the Under (-123).

I’ll Buy a Vowel, Pat

There are some bets that you make based on the defense a team is facing. Such is the case for 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk. He isn’t viewed as a focus of the 49ers offense, but he will likely be on the field a lot in the overall plan to prevent Jimmy Garoppolo from screwing things up for the Niners. The Rams are going to be coming after Jimmy G and Juszczyk will likely be chipping defenders or pass blocking in the backfield. He has a minuscule Over/Under (1.5 receptions at +112 Over, -145 Under). He has two or more receptions in 10 of 19 games he has played, and Garoppolo knows that when he needs a check-down target, his man Kyle will be in the flat likely unguarded. It isn’t sexy pick, but one that should hit – despite the number saying it won’t. Take the Over (+112).

NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Divisional Round

Five of our favorite NFL Divisional Round prop bets.

Not sure I’ve ever seen a Divisional Round week where such a strong case can be made that each of the road teams has a legitimate chance to win. While history tells us the home team should win three of these games (if not all four), they’re going to be competitive – nothing could be worse than last week’s blowouts.

Here are five players we’re convinced have a great chance of sending you to the playoff pay window.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Jan. 21 at 7:40 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

Oh, Henry!

The Tennessee Titans found a way to lock down the No. 1 seed in the AFC without their most potent weapon, RB Derrick Henry. Now he’s back, and there’s going to be a lot of pregame debate about whether he’s the Henry that was a legitimate MVP candidate or a running back being forced back too soon with a foot injury – an RB killer. By his standards, he has a low Over/Under (80.5 rushing yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). The fact the Titans activated him lends itself to giving Henry a heavy workload. He’s the centerpiece of the offense, and the team has been built around him for a reason. Take the Over (-114).

Runnin’ with the Devil

The San Francisco 49ers have a big job ahead of them traveling to Green Bay. Their QB has a thumb problem on his throwing hand. In cold weather, it hurts much worse. The 49ers are likely to lean on RB Elijah Mitchell … again. Over his last six games, he has more than 20 carries in all of them. His Over/Under for rushing attempts is less than that (18.5 carries at -118 Over, -110 Under). The only way he doesn’t make it seven in a row with 20-plus carries is if the Packers blow out the Niners early, or he gets injured during the game. Take the Over (-118).

Brady’s Bunch

The deeper the Tampa Bay Buccaneers go in the playoffs, the more the injury to Chris Godwin and the release of Antonio Brown are going to stand out. QB Tom Brady has had absurd Over/Under numbers all season, and this week is no exception (290.5 passing yards at -114 for both). Brady has more than proved what he is capable of in the postseason and many see a shootout type of game. While I don’t disagree with that, if the Los Angeles Rams defense can effectively limit Mike Evans, Brady will need to complete 30 passes to hit that number with dink-and-dunk passes. The Bucs may win, but it shouldn’t be through an aerial attack. Take the Under (-114).

Swinging for a Single

Just as many who are projecting the Rams-Buccaneers game to be a passing festival, the same is true in the Buffalo Bills-Kansas City Chiefs matchup. In this case, I see that happening. Bills RB Devin Singletary is playing the best ball of his career of late, reflected in his Over/Under (15.5 rushing attempts at -105 Over, -123 Under). For a standard featured back, that’s not a lot, but for Singletary, that’s a pretty stiff number. If he struggles early, his carries will suffer. The Bills may just come out throwing and not look back. Zack Moss may get some looks. Too many factors are against it. Take the Under (-123).

Hail to the Chief

There are always two players for the Chiefs that get bettors expecting huge games – WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce. The Bills linebackers are decent, but not great. Kelce is great. Hill is likely to garner double-coverage on most plays. Kelce will likely be locked up one-on-one more times than not. Who will Patrick Mahomes choose? The star in single coverage. He has a pretty big number for a tight end (69.5 receiving yards at -116 Over, -111 Under) for a reason. He’s going to top it. Take the Over (-116).

NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Wild Card Weekend

Five NFL Wild Card Weekend prop bets to put some extra cash in your pocket.

The NFL field has been whittled down from 32 to 14 and the intensity ramps up the closer a team gets to the Super Bowl. We’ve picked five high-profile players from this week’s field and come up with reasons why we are convinced we’ll being heading the pay window with this Fab Five.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Jan. 14 at 7:10 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

Mixon Things Up

There’s no doubt that Joe Mixon is the player who Cincinnati’s offense revolves around. However, he has a very interesting Over/Under for volume expectations (19.5 rushing attempts at -105 Over, -123 Under). To hit the Over, Mixon will need 20 carries – something he did just four times during the regular season and just twice since Week 3. It should be noted that one of those two over the last 15 games was a season-high 30 against the Raiders. But that was a game the Bengals jumped out to a huge lead and leaned on Mixon to keep it a huge lead. If the same situation happens, the Bengals will likely pull Mixon and let Samaje Perine or Chris Evans share the load. Mixon has come 17 or more carries in four of his last five games, but hasn’t hit 20 in any of them. It may get close, but Take the Under (-123).

Rob from the Rich

Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Rob Gronkowski has a huge reception Over/Under for a tight end (5.5 catches at -102 Over, -127 Under). The clear indication here is that he won’t get to six receptions. However, in the two games that the Bucs were without both Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, Gronk caught seven passes in each game and had 252 receiving yards. He missed the first game against the Philadelphia Eagles, but you can bet without a couple of his top weapons, Tom Brady will be locked in off the snap on Gronk up the seam. Six catches is a high bar for a tight end, but this is the postseason and that is Brady and Gronk. Take the Over (-102).

Let’s Show Brandon!

Of all the players who have been spotlighted in the second-half run by the San Francisco 49ers, WR Brandon Aiyuk has been overlooked despite making a significant contribution. The 49ers needed to win their last two games to make the playoffs and Aiyuk was more productive (10-201) than either Deebo Samuel (7-158-1) or George Kittle (6-39). The Dallas Cowboys defense is going to pay inordinate attention to Samuel and Kittle, which will leave Aiyuk in single man coverage. His Over/Under is modest (49.5 receiving yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). It may only take three receptions to hit that number because the Cowboys give up a lot of downfield splash plays and their attention will be on George and Deebo. Take the Over (-114).

Bottomless Pitt

Sometimes a number is set that you think should go one way. but it doesn’t … Such is the case for Pittsburgh Steelers WR Diontae Johnson. His Over/Under for receptions is high (6.5 receptions at -106 Over, -122 Under). In the 16 games he played this season, he caught seven or more passes in six games, and this game has all the makings of a 38-14 blowout that sees Ben Roethlisberger throwing 50 passes. However, as the weather has become colder late in the season, the Chiefs have become much more of a running/short-passing team willing to take a 14-play drive that eats eight minutes off the clock. Johnson is clearly capable of catching seven passes, but he may not get the opportunities he needs because the Steelers defense is on the field for 35-40 minutes. Take the Under (-122).

All Cooped Up

I’ve made more money on Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Kupp than any other player. He has been seeing absurd Over/Under numbers for receiving yardage. There’s a reason for that. In 17 games this season, he topped 100 yards in 11 of them and had 92 or more in all but one game – the first meeting with the Arizona Cardinals. His Over/Under, as expected, is incredibly high for this week (106.5 receiving yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). Even in his worst statistical game of the season (5-64), Kupp was targeted 13 times. He was targeted 15 times in their second meeting and produced (13-123-1). That stat is telling. The Rams learned from the first game, when he caught just five of 13 thrown his way and changed it up – he caught 13 of 15 – mostly slant passes – the second time around. It’s hard to give away 106 yards, but this is Kupp. Take the Over (-114).

NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Week 18

Five prop bets to close out the NFL regular season.

The final week of the regular season is upon us, and we have picked out five prop bets that can take you to the pay window. We’re spreading the wealth – picking one quarterback, one running back, two wide receivers and one tight end in hopes of hitting a payday in five different games on Sunday.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Jan. 7 at 7:15 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

Diggstown

Buffalo Bills WR Stefon Diggs hasn’t had the lights-out season that he had in 2020, but his best game of the season came in his first meeting with the New York Jets, catching eight passes for 162 yards. It’s little surprising that his Over/Under is as low as it is (73.5 receiving yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). The Bills need to win this game to clinch the AFC East and not be a wild-card team on the road, so Josh Allen will be leaning on Diggs. If he does half well as the first matchup, he still hits. Take the Over (-114).

Jobsite Foreman

Few players have been more hit-and-miss recently than Tennessee Titans running back D’Onta Foreman. The Titans need a win to earn a first-round bye and will be getting Derrick Henry back. Foreman is playing lowly Houston but has a modest Over/Under (69.5 rushing yards at -114 for both). In the five games since the Titans last played Houston, Foreman has topped 100 yards three times. The Titans won’t take any chances to lock down the coveted top seed, and Foreman should have 20 carries or more as they get back into Henry mode. He should only need 15 to hit this number. Take the Over (-114).

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Law & Order

It’s been a long, painful rookie season for Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence, and it’s coming to an end. His Over/Under is very low (209.5 passing yards at -108 Over, -120 Under). But, it’s low for a reason. He hasn’t hit 210 yards in six of his last nine games. In his first meeting with the Colts, despite throwing 35 times, he had just 162 passing yards. There are better times ahead, but Lawrence will be happy to see this miserable season come to a close. Take the Under (-120).

Kittle in Bits

San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle is a big reason the 49ers have beaten the Los Angeles Rams five straight times. In his last seven games against the Rams, he has 98 or more yards in five of them and has just one game in which he didn’t blow out his Week 18 Over/Under (60.5 receiving yards at -112 Over, -115 Under). The Rams typically don’t put Jalen Ramsey in the slot — where he spent most of his time in the earlier meeting, dude to injuries. Kittle does his most damage from the inside, and the results have been impressive. The Niners need to win to get in, so expect to see Kittle targeted 10 times or more. If he catches half of those, he hits the point. Take the Over (-112).

Hollywood or Bust

The Baltimore Ravens have had a slew of injuries this season, so WR Marquise Brown hasn’t had the kind of season that was expected of him. He hasn’t hit 45 yards in any of the four games since Lamar Jackson went down, but the Pittsburgh Steelers are a risk-taking defense, and Brown will get some single coverage. His Over/Under is very low (45.5 receiving yards at -111 Over, -116 Under). The feeling is that he won’t hit the point, but he has had some good games against the Steelers, and it may only take one splash play plus a couple short receptions to hit this number. Take the Over (-111).

NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Week 17

Five NFL prop bets to exploit in Week 17.

As we turn the calendar into a new year, there is still a lot to be decided for those teams looking to get in the playoffs. For this week, we chose five players who are in the thick of the race to get to the postseason in hopes that their performances (good or bad) will take you to the pay window.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Dec. 31, at 6:45 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

Remember the Titans

Tennessee is trying to hold off the Indianapolis Colts and won last week due in large part to wide receiver A.J. Brown. He had a monster games and, at times, looked uncoverable. The Miami Dolphins have a good defense, which could explain why Brown’s number is low (71.5 receiving yards at -114 for both Over and Under). Xavien Howard will likely be chasing him, but Ryan Tannehill is probable to lock in Brown downfield. If he catches five passes, he should hit this number. Take the Over (-114).

Keeping Up with the Joneses

With the injury to Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Ronald Jones once again finds himself in the center of the offense. He’s been a forgotten man in Bruce Arians’ system for the last year-and-a-half. His Over/Under is modest (67.5 rushing yards at -116 Over, -111 Under). Last week, he had 20 carries and gained just 65 yards, but that was against a good run defense in Carolina. This week, he’s facing the hapless New York Jets. The Bucs are massive favorites and should have a comfortable lead by halftime. If that expectation happens, Jones will get get pounded time and again and should hit close to 20 carries once more. Against the Jets defense, that could mean 100 rushing yards. Take the Over (-116).

It Takes Tua

Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is being given a pretty respectable Over/Under against Tennessee (240.5 passing yards at -114 for both). Often times, quarterbacks produce higher yardage numbers in games in which they’re getting beaten and have to pass. That hasn’t been true of Tua. His best yardage days have come against the hounds of the league. In 11 games, he has topped this Over/Under number only four times – three of those against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Jets and New York Giants. When he faces good teams, they tend to keep him in check, and the Titans qualify as a good team. Take the Under (-114).

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Cut to the Chase

Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase has had an outstanding rookie season and has been the big-play threat in the Bengals offense, averaging more than 17 yards per reception. He goes up against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that plays a lot of man coverage and takes chances. In what looks to be a back-and-forth, up-tempo battle, his Over/Under isn’t outrageous (67.5 receiving yards at -115 Over, -112 Under). There is plenty of competition for receptions from teammates Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, but if Chase catches four passes, his numbers tell you he will hit the point. Take the Over (-115).

Freaks and Zekes

It has been an up-and-down season for Dallas Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott. His Over/Under this week is likely the lowest of his stellar career to this point (53.5 rushing yards at -115 Over, -112 Under). The reason is obvious – he hasn’t hit 54 rushing yards in any of his last nine games. However, in a game against the Arizona Cardinals with a lot on the line for both teams, look for Dallas to try to remained balanced on offense, which should mean a healthy dose of Elliott and Tony Pollard. I wouldn’t blame anyone for taking the Under, because he hasn’t hit his current number in nine straight games, but all streaks come to an end, and the hunch is that it ends Sunday. Take the Over (-115).

NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Week 16

Unwrap these NFL betting gifts for Week 16.

With COVID once again impacting teams in a significant way and gutting teams in unimaginable numbers, it’s becoming difficult to find prop bets to go with because everything could change tomorrow – a lot of first-time starting QBs these days.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Dec;. 24 at 11:45 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

The Njoku Is On You

Cleveland Browns TE David Njoku has talent but has never shown it consistently. His Over/Under is obscenely low (18.5 receiving yards at -116 Over, -111 Under). On the road against the Green Bay Packers, where they will likely be behind, it wouldn’t shock anyone to see the Browns pass 35 times or more. If two of them end up in Njoku’s hands, he hits the Over. Take the Over (-116).

Captain Kirk

Since DeAndre Hopkins have been on the shelf, both Christian Kirk and A.J. Green have been asked to step up their games, Kirk has a modest Over/Under (58.5 receiving yards at -114 for both). Indianapolis Colts CB Xavier Rhodes ends up on a lot of highlight films – chasing down somebody who burned him for 40 yards. Kirk will have one of those catches. It’s getting the other 19 that will have you waiting to go the pay window. Take the Over (-114).

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Beg, Burrow or Steal

We get it that the Baltimore Ravens are allergic to going to overtime and would prefer to lose in regulation. That works for me since I’m not a huge of the Over/Under for Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow (269.5 yards at -114 for both). The Ravens’ badly depleted secondary is still find ways to send games potentially to overtime, because they don’t allow huge numbers. If Joe Mixon gets 20 carries, this number becomes extremely difficult to hit. Take the Under (-114).

Staff Infection

The Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford is no strangers to the Minnesota Vikings. He has a very robust Over/Under number he has to back up (281.5 passing yards at -114 for both). He’s more than capable of doing that, but, in his last 10 games against the Vikings, he has only done it twice. The Rams are a much different team, but a lot of things have to go right to hit a number like that against a team that could be imploded if it doesn’t make the playoffs. He will need to throw 35 or more times to hit this number. I just don’t think he will need to throw that often in this game. Take the Under (-114).

Silence of the Lamb?

Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb is being given a pedestrian Over/Under against Washington (64.5 receiving yards at -114 for both). He has become the “screen guy” who catches the ball at the line of scrimmage, but he’s also the guy who can take it to the house any time he gets his hands on the ball. I like to bet on those guys. Take the Over (-114).

NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Week 15

Five prop bets for Week 15 that should turn a profit.

Typically making picks for the weekend games, you have a ton of options. But, as was the case last year, COVID has reared its ugly head – forcing three games to moved into next week and leaving several other games with question marks.

As a result, the number of prop numbers out early are few and far between, so we’re making the picks that we have numbers for instead of having the luxury to pick or choose between a much bigger pool of players.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Dec. 17 at 11:40 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

The Hunter of the Hunted?

New England Patriots TE Hunter Henry was paid huge money to be the next Gronk, but that hasn’t happened. He has started adding touchdowns to his resume, which helps a lot, but his Over/Under is very low (25.5 receiving yards at -114 for both Over and Under). The Patriots are opening up the offense a little more for Mac Jones, and his completion percentage is very strong. Henry has the size to create mismatches and may only need three receptions to top this number. Take the Over (-114).

Hangin’ with Mr. Cooper

Dallas Cowboys WR Amari Cooper hasn’t been setting the world on fire this season, but his Over/Under has dropped to a point that it has become hard to ignore (50.5 receiving yards at -114 for both). Cooper has topped this number in six of the last eight games he played and, while he caught just three passes in the meeting with the Giants, he hit the 60-yard mark. Dallas’ run game has had its struggled, and the pass game has had to pick up the slack. Cooper is a big-play threat and with the emergence of other receivers, he isn’t getting the double-coverage that typified his first couple season in Dallas. He could top that number with one bomb from Dak Prescott. Take the Over (-114).

Boston Rob

Tampa Bay Buccaneers TE Rob Gronkowski is still rolling along after coming out of retirement last season. His Over/Under is low given his production this season (52.5 receiving yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). He has hit over that number in each of his last four games, but the New Orleans Saints defense is extremely good against tight ends and likely won’t allow Gronk to rumble down the seam without a linebacker in his hip pocket. The Saints are going to try to play ball control and the Buccaneers are leaning more on Leonard Fournette as the season rolls along. Gronk could well hit this number, but it might take five or six catches to do that and that seems a little too high. Take the Under (-114).

Me and Julio Down by the Schoolyard

Tennessee Titans WR Julio Jones at this stage of his career is more of a No. 2 receiving option. He showed that in Atlanta has last couple of seasons and earlier this year before A.J. Brown went down. Now he is the No. 1 guy, which gets No. 1 coverage. The Pittsburgh Steelers’ pass defense has the ability to blanket the opponent’s top receiving threat. That is reflected in Jones’ Over/Under this week (54.5 receiving yards at -114 for both). Pittsburgh is going to pay a lot of attention to Jones, and he isn’t the player who is going to catch six or more passes, which is what it might take to go over the number. Take the Under (-114).

It Ain’t Easy Being Green

It’s never a secret coming into any Green Bay Packers game that WR Davante Adams is going to be the focus of Aaron Rodgers’ plan of attack. His Over/Under is impressive (90.5 receiving yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). But, Adams has topped 100 yards in each of the last three games, and the depleted Baltimore Ravens secondary still plays more man coverage than just about any defense in the league. During the Packers’ run for the No. 1 seed over the last three weeks, Adams has averaged more than eight catches a game. If he comes anywhere close to that, it may be impossible to keep him under 90 yards. Take the Over (-114).

NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Week 13

Week 13 prop bet recommendations to win a few bucks.

We go across the board for prop bet talent this week by making projections on a couple of quarterbacks, a running back, a wide receiver and a tight end in hopes that spreading the bets across the board will have a better chance of taking you to the pay window this week.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Dec. 3 at 8:15 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

The Lion King

Lions tight end T.J. Hockenson hasn’t been consistent in the new-look Lions offense, but both of Minnesota’s top linebackers (Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr) are injured and he can create mismatches with safeties. His Over/Under is very modest (45.5 receiving yards at -114 for both). He has never hit that number in four career games as a Viking, but he is now the go-to guy in Detroit. He’s averaging less than 10 yards per reception, but the Vikings are vulnerable over the middle. It may take just one splash play down the seam to get you halfway home, and add two or three checkdown Charlies to seal the deal. Take the Over (-114).

Stuck in neutral

Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has gaudy season-long passing numbers, due primarily to an amazing start before the Jon Gruden/Henry Ruggs sagas played out. His Over/Under for passing seems reasonable (268.5 passing yards at -115 Over, -112 Under). He’s at home against Washington, which, on paper looks positive. However, Washington hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in its last five games (including Green Bay and Tampa Bay). The reason? Washington’s defense has started looking a lot more like its D from last year, and the team held the ball for 35 minutes, on average, over the last five games. That doesn’t leave a lot of time for an opposing QB to make big plays, especially without his big-play receiver. Take the Under (-115).

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Hot Mike

Tampa Bay wide receiver Mike Evans has had to share the wealth more than he typically has as Tom Brady brought a couple of his buddies down to Tampa to fatten up the roster. However, with Antonio Brown under suspension, the load of targets he would receive needs to be spread around. Evans Over/Under is surprisingly low given he’s playing the Falcons (59.5 receiving yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). In his last 11 games against them, he has topped that number eight times. With Tampa Bay still looking to lock down the No. 1 seed if the chips fall right, pounding Atlanta is on that menu. Take the Over (-114).

Barking Up the Wrong Tree

Giants running back Saquon Barkley continues to disappoint, but he continues to get respect when it comes to his Over/Under numbers compared to his production (55.5 rushing yards at -115 Over, -112 Under). After starting 1-7, Miami has rattled off four straight wins on the back of its defense – opponents have scored just 46 points in the last four games. Barkley will be targeted when he is in the game, and his lack of attempts in his return from injury may require him to pop a big run to hit this number. Is he capable of topping this modest number? Yes. But, he’s only done it once this season and that was with 57 yards in Week 2. Take the Under (-112).

Freedom and Justin For All

There are some numbers you check because you want to see how high they are – only to be shocked at how low the number is. Such is the case with Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert and his rushing projection (15.5 rushing yards at -112 Over, -115 Under). Not only is it a low number, but the line indicates that he should hit the Under. In the last two games, Herbert has had his two best rushing yardage games of the season – 90 against the Steelers and 36 against Denver. In two of his last three games, he has a single scramble that surpasses this number. The Bengals bring the heat and sacks don’t count against your rushing numbers. He will be flushed from the pocket, and it can reasonably be anticipated he will scramble three times. One of them will likely be with open real estate in front of him. Take the Over (-112).

NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Week 12

We’re looking to take you to the pay window by placing bets on four of the biggest stars.

This week we’re looking to take you to the pay window by placing bets on four of the biggest stars in the game this season and taking a side prop bet on the game’s best kicker, throwing in a curveball that will likely have a winner or loser decided in the first quarter.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Nov. 26 at 6:15 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

Tommy Boy

Buccaneers QB Tom Brady has been posting huge numbers, which have made his Over/Under totals go off the chain. Against the Colts this week, his O/U for passing yards is gigantic (315.5 passing yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). Brady routinely hit more than 300 yards while with the New England Patriots, but he has hit this number just once in his last five games. So many things can happen to keep his yardage number under, ranging from getting a big lead and laying on the ball, the Indianapolis Colts defense stepping up or Colts RB Jonathan Taylor rushing 20-25 times to reduce the time the Bucs offense is on the field. Any one of those things will make topping the point difficult. Take the Under (-114).

Steeler’s Wheel

After a 1-3 start, the Pittsburgh Steelers saved their season by turning the offense over to rookie RB Najee Harris. Over the next five games, Harris never had less than 22 carries. The Steelers went 4-0-1 in those games. In the five games he has 16 or fewer carries, Pittsburgh is 1-4. There has been no middle ground. In a must-win game against the Cincinnati Bengals, the Over/Under for Harris is modest (66.5 yards rushing yards at -114 for both). If he hits the 20-carry standard he has posted in five of the last six games, it will be almost impossible for him not to surpass that number. Take the Over (-114).

Movin’ On Up

Against likely playoff teams over the last two weeks, Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson has posted more than 300 receiving yards, which is why his Over/Under against the San Francisco 49ers (84.5 receiving yards at -114 for both the Over and Under) seems a little low. He has become a big-play machine, and Jefferson is thrown a ton of deep balls that he turns into 80/20 balls instead of 50/50. It’s a big number but one that might require an injury to prevent him from hitting. Take the Over (-114).

The Adams Family

It’s difficult to ever go against Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams under any circumstances, much less when he is at home. However, while they haven’t done it as often this season as they have in previous years, the Los Angeles Rams may have CB Jalen Ramsey chase Adams wherever he goes on the field. The talent level at receiver drops significantly beyond Adams, so this could be a one-on-one matchup of two All-Pros that lasts all 60 minutes. His Over/Under is pretty high (90.5 receiving yards at -114 for both). But, Aaron Rodgers is no idiot. If Ramsey puts the clamps down on Adams, Rodgers will still take his shots, but likely not as many as he would against a lesser corner. Take the Under (-114).

Just for Kicks

There are plenty of prop bets that can be made on any game. We tend to focus on yardage, but there are also bets for who will or won’t score a touchdown, who will score first, etc. One that caught my eye is in the Baltimore-Cleveland game – who will score the first field goal at -112 for both teams. Here is where I see the game within the game. The Cleveland Browns have scored 17 or fewer points in five of their last six games, which means a lot of possessions coming up empty. The Baltimore Ravens have the best kicker in the NFL in Justin Tucker, and he is capable of hitting kicks from 60 yards. The odds are quietly stacked in his favor, because if he gets his chance, he rarely misses. Take the Ravens to kick the first field goal (-112).