Tag: ESPN Football Power Index

Where Oregon Ducks stand in the top 25 according to ESPN Football Power Index

ESPN ranked Oregon at No. 12 in the preseason Top-25, but they don’t fare so well in the Football Power Index.

We are still in the college football offseason, but as teams take part in spring practice and host spring games, it feels like the news cycle is up and running.

As new coaching staffs settle and teams prepare for the season, a hierarchy has started to form as we plow toward August and September.

Many college football fans look at the AP Top 25, or the USA TODAY Coaches Poll to see where their team ranks, but one thing that we like to use is the ESPN Football Power Index. The FPI measures a team’s true strength on a net point scale; expected point margin vs. opponent on a neutral field. It also gives a percent chance for each team to win their conference, make the College Football Playoff, and ultimately win the national championship.

We know that heading into the 2022 season under a new coaching staff, the Oregon Ducks are projected to be ranked just outside of the top-10, and they figure to be among the best teams in the Pac-12 as well. But where do they stack up in the top 25 according to ESPN’s FPI? Let’s take a look:

Where Texas ranks in ESPN’s preseason Football Power Index for 2022

ESPN’s FPI is extremely high on Texas having a bounce-back season in 2022.

As spring practice is wrapping up for most schools across the nation, many people are ready to look ahead to the start of the 2022 season.

EPSN released its preseason Football Power Index early this week, the rankings featured familiar faces at the top with a few major surprises throughout the list.

  1. Alabama
  2. Ohio State
  3. Georgia
  4. Clemson
  5. Notre Dame
  6. Texas
  7. Michigan
  8. Oklahoma
  9. Pitt
  10. Auburn
  11. LSU
  12. Penn State
  13. Oklahoma State
  14. Texas A&M
  15. Utah
  16. Michigan State
  17. Ole Miss
  18. Miami
  19. Baylor
  20. Kentucky
  21. Wisconsin
  22. North Carolina
  23. Oregon
  24. Mississippi State
  25. Florida

Their FPI is extremely high on Texas having a bounce-back season in 2022. It ranks the Longhorns as the top team in the Big 12 conference and No. 6 in the country.

Oklahoma (No. 8), Oklahoma State (No. 13) and Baylor (No. 19) round out the rest of the conference that made ESPN’s cut.

FPI gives Texas a 41% chance to win the Big 12 and a 21% chance to make the College Football Playoff. High praise for a team that finished 5-7 a year ago.

The Longhorns do return many key pieces including Bijan Robinson and Xavier Worthy, but Steve Sarkisian’s team has many question marks to figure out in order to live up to this projection.

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Updated ESPN game-by-game win probabilities after Sooners win over Kansas

An updated look at Oklahoma’s game-by-game win probabilities per ESPN FPI after the Sooners’ win over the Kansas Jayhawks.

The win against Kansas left a sour taste in the mouths of the coaches, players, fans, and voters as the Oklahoma Sooners had to rally from 10 down at halftime to beat the one-win Jayhawks 35-23 on Saturday.

This week, it appears the computers and the voters are in alignment. The Oklahoma Sooners fell in the USA TODAY Sports AFCA Coaches Poll as well as the AP Top 25. They also fell in ESPN’s Football Power Index while much of the Big 12 rose in that rating system and their chances of making the College Football Playoff dropped per FiveThirtyEight.

As a result, in this week’s updated win game-by-game win probabilities, the Oklahoma Sooners’ chance of winning grew slimmer after another underwhelming win in the 2021 college football season. Though the Sooners are the projected winner in each of their remaining four games, more and more of the simulations are projecting wins for their opponents than they were last week.

The trend is troubling, but the reality for the Oklahoma Sooners is as long as they continue to win, they’ll be in a position to contend for the Big 12 championship and will find themselves in the College Football Playoff.

As we take a look at the win probabilities of the Oklahoma Sooners’ four remaining games, let’s remember what former owner of the Raiders said:

“Just win baby!”

Texas still lands in the top 15 of ESPN’s updated Football Power Index

Even after consecutive losses to Big 12 opponents, the Longhorns still crack the top 15 of ESPN’s updated Football Power Index.

First-year head coach Steve Sarkisian had a promising start to his tenure at Texas. Continue reading “Texas still lands in the top 15 of ESPN’s updated Football Power Index”

Where Texas lands in ESPN’s updated FPI rankings after Week 6

Oklahoma State fell to the middle of the pack, while Texas and Iowa State are neck and neck.

We’ve reached the halfway point of the 2021 college football season and the Big 12 title is completely up for grabs. Continue reading “Where Texas lands in ESPN’s updated FPI rankings after Week 6”

Updated game-by-game predictions for Texas using ESPN’s Football Power Index

The Longhorns are now favored in all but one game on their schedule according to ESPN’s updated FPI.

The Steve Sarkisian era at Texas got off to a strong start in Week 1. Continue reading “Updated game-by-game predictions for Texas using ESPN’s Football Power Index”

Michigan State debuts at No. 56 in ESPN’s 2021 Football Power Index

The computers at ESPN believe Michigan State will finish the 2021 in the bottom third of the Big Ten but potentially end up bowling.

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The computers at ESPN believe Michigan State will finish the 2021 in the bottom third of the Big Ten but potentially end up bowling.

ESPN released their initial Football Power Index (FPI) rankings for the upcoming 2021 season, and the Spartans are ranked as the No. 56 team in the country and 12th in the Big Ten. Despite being ranked near the bottom of the Big Ten, FPI projects the Spartans to finish with 5.6 wins and 6.4 losses, which would technically round up to 6-6. Additionally, FPI gives the Spartans a 51.3 percent chance to win six games and become bowl eligible.

ESPN’s FPI is a “measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season.”

Here is where each of the Big Ten teams rank:

  • No. 5 – Ohio State
  • No. 10 – Penn State
  • No. 15 – Wisconsin
  • No. 23 – Iowa
  • No. 25 – Indiana
  • No. 30 – Northwestern
  • No. 40 – Michigan
  • No. 46 – Nebraska
  • No. 49 – Minnesota
  • No. 50 – Purdue
  • No. 55 – Maryland
  • No. 56 – Michigan State
  • No. 79 – Rutgers
  • No. 87 – Illinois

To no surprise, Ohio State is the heavy favorites by ESPN’s FPI to not only win the Big Ten East Division but the conference as a whole. The Spartans are currently given a 0.8 percent chance at winning the Big Ten East Division and 0.3 percent chance to win the league.

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ESPN Football Power Index: How did Texas’ 2021 opponents fare this season?

We know who Texas will be facing next season under new head coach Steve Sarkisian. Let’s take a look at how these teams fared in 2020.

Texas has a fairly favorable football schedule in 2021. Continue reading “ESPN Football Power Index: How did Texas’ 2021 opponents fare this season?”

Jets ranked among NFL’s worst in ESPN’s Football Power Index

The Jets are ranked 25th in ESPN’s football power index.

The Worldwide Leader doesn’t expect much from the Jets in 2020.

ESPN released its Football Power Index and it has Gang Green ranked as the 25th team in the NFL heading into the season. The index projects the Jets to have 6.8 wins next season and gives them a 24 percent chance to make the playoffs.

ESPN’s Football Power Index is based on what Las Vegas thinks each team’s win total will be for the given year. It also includes each team’s statistics on offense, defense and special teams from the previous season, as well as how many returning players there are, any changes to a coaching staff and quarterbacks.

First and foremost, the Jets have a brutal schedule in 2020. They have the second-toughest schedule in the league based on their opponents’ win percentages from 2019.

In terms of how the Jets did on offense, defense and special teams last season, there was some good but also a lot of bad. Adam Gase’s offense was dreadful in 2019, as the Jets ranked 31st and 32nd in total points scored (276) and total yards (5,170), respectively.

The defense was one of the few bright spots of the 2019 Jets, as they were second against the run and middle of the pack against the pass. Special teams had its issues, especially on field goal attempts. Jets kickers missed a combined nine field goals and four extra points.

As for coaching staff changes, there weren’t many made by the Jets. A couple of small name assistants here and there, but nothing of note. The quarterback room is slightly different than last season with the acquisitions of James Morgan and Joe Flacco, but Sam Darnold is still the starter.